This Round of Negotiations on Iran's Nuclear Program May Lead to Suspension or to Sanctions

By Victor Comras

The United States, the European Union and Iran are now engaged in a serious game of three-way hardball over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, used his visit to the UNGA in New York to suggest that Iran might be willing to suspend enrichment, under what he termed “fair and just conditions.” This, he intimated further, would entail a change in US attitudes toward his country, and, in particularly US renouncing any support for ‘regime change’ in Iran. His statements, and more moderate comportment than usual, were enough to convince the EU to hold back on the US push for sanctions and to undertake a new round of negotiations to convince Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.

For its part, the US has signaled to both the EU and Iran, that US patience with the EU-Iran negotiating process is already severely strained. Recognizing that the August 31, 2006 deadline for Iranian Enrichment suspension has come and gone without consequences, we are pushing our EU brethren to now set a new firm three week deadline (until October 15th) to get an Iranian commitment to suspend its enrichment activities. Barring such a commitment we want agreement from the EU, Russia and China, to go ahead with first stage sanctions on Iran. These would concentrate measures against Iran’s government, military and scientific communities. Such targeted measures would include a travel ban and a suspension of all trade, and technical, financial and business support for any sector even remotely associated with Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

Russia has already begun to stake out its own position in these negotiations and will put maximum pressure on the United States for concessions to Russia, if Russia is to play ball with us in the Security Council. High on their list is getting the US to back off from its newly imposed sanctions on the Russian company, Sukhoï. The US imposed a new export control ban under the 2000 Iran Non-proliferation Act against Sukhoi based on a finding that Sukhoi had engaged in providing sensitive missile and defense technology to Iran. This followed a deal signed by Moscow last year involving surface-to-air missiles for Iran reportedly worth some $750 million.

Chief EU Negotiator Javier Solana is scheduled to meet with Iran’s negotiator, Ali Larijani in Tehran early this coming week. Larijani failed to show for an initial meeting that had been planned in New York this past week, giving rise to speculation that Iran’s leaders are engaged in their own “grand internal debate” over whether to concede on enrichment “if the price is right.” In the meantime Iran continues to reach out to China in hopes that it can further ward off UN sanctions, if necessary.

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