New Polling Data in Indonesia Shows "Significant" Support for Terrorists

By Zachary Abuza

In four years since the devastating bombs that killed 202 people on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, police and security forces in the region, with the support of Australian and American counterparts, have hurt Jemaah Islamiyah’s capabilities. Roughly 400 members have been arrested. Last November, Dr. Azahari bin Husin, the group’s top bomb-maker was killed and police netted some 33 bombs in various states of production, much of JI’s available cache. JI is seeking to rebuild its ranks. Azahari’s cookbooks were written in an easy to understand manner and he had trained his own protégés. Likewise they have been trying to stockpile explosives. Two weeks ago a female courier was caught with 8-9 kilos of mining-grade plastic explosives. JI is down but not out.
What is most troubling is not that JI is still around or able to perpetrate attacks, but that they have an uncomfortable amount of support in society.
In their most recent poll, the very well respected and independent Indonesia Survey Institute polled some 1,092 residents from across Indonesia from late September to early October – the “bombing season” in Indonesia - and found that 17.4 people supported JI’s use of violence to establish an Islamic state. A similar number, 16.1 percent, actively supported the Mujihidin Council of Indonesia (known by its Bahasa acronym MMI). The MMI is the overt-civil society organization of JI’s spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Ba’asyir. Other top JI members have concurrently held positions within the MMI, which is committed to establishing sharia law in Indonesia. Other top JI leaders, such as Abu Jibril, who was released from prison in October 2004 after a token sentence are also active in the MMI leadership.

Most alarming is that when asked if they supported the actions of Imam Samudra, who is now awaiting a firing squad for his role in the Bali bombing, 9 percent of the respondents said yes. According to the pollsters: "They approved the bombings conducted ... in Bali with the excuse of defending Islam." "Jihad that has been understood partially and practised with violence is justified by around one in 10 Indonesian Muslims.”

These numbers are also discouraging because of some positive improvements in public opinions about violence in 2005. The Pew Center for People and the Press’ polling data also sheds some light on this issue. In their 2005 poll, support for violent jihad had fallen from 27 percent in August to 15 percent, while those who said violence can never be justified grew from 54 percent to 66 percent. These numbers appear to be rising again. But the Pew survey had one fascinating number that few analysts have latched onto: the number of Indonesians who believed their religion is “under attack” grew from 15 percent to over 80 percent. This is the key figure. Dr. Christine Fair and Hussain Haqqani have done the regression analysis of the pew data and found that the single greatest indicator as to why people support suicide terrorism is the degree to which people believe their religion is under attack.

In the past few years, the Indonesia Survey Institute, has tried to assuage concerns that Islamists are gaining a foothold. Previous surveys have put support for Islamists at 15%. Other survey work that is touted by Indonesian-ists suggests that high rates of support for sharia are really qualified and not as strong as they actually appear. Yet the support for Islamists is clearly growing. The Indonesia Survey Institute concluded by saying the percentage of such support "is very significant": ''For support of extreme actions like in the Bali bombings, 9 per cent is not insignificant. It's very significant.”

Indeed it is.

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