In Somalia, Islamists' Rapid Gains Leave Room for Changes
By Douglas Farah
The Union of Islamic Courts, the Islamist movement that has taken over much of Somalia, may already be running into difficulty sustaining its rapid gains. Like most Islamist movements such as the Taliban and al Qaeda, little thought appears to have been given to how to govern if and when power is attained. Simply repeating that sharia law provides the answers does not lead to a platform of governance.
At the American Enterprise Institute's discussion of Somalia last week, several important points were made by panalists. One is that the UIC is, like most of Somali structures, based on clans and sub-clans. In the case of the UIC, the dominant clan structures constitutes less than 10 percent of the population.
This relatively small base, coupled with the rapid ascent of the UIC, for which its leaders were completely unprepared, leads some to believe radicalization of the movement will cause a backlash that will make it impossible for the UIC, at least in its most radical incarnation, to succeed in even the short term. My full blog is here.
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