U.S.-Turkish Relations on the Brink?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

For many years, Turkey -- a secular democracy with a predominantly Muslim population -- has been a staunch U.S. ally. Since Turkey has served as a bulwark of stability in the Middle East, it's important that the U.S. recognize the disturbing manner in which Turkish public opinion has been turning against the country's alliance with the United States and ties with the West -- and how recent events may further widen the rift between the U.S. and Turkey.

The change in Turkish public opinion is reflected in the annual survey of public opinion released by the German Marshall Fund in early September. The New York Times noted this survey in a September 10 editorial:

The survey's most striking finding is the degree to which Turks now question their ties to the United States and Europe, and have warmed to Iran, their neighbor to the east. The discontent appears anchored in Turks' overwhelming disapproval of President Bush's handling of international affairs and growing disapproval of European Union leadership. Both are manifest in waning Turkish support for the institutions that have bound Turkey to the West. Though Turkey has been a staunch NATO member since 1952, only 44 percent of Turks in this year's survey agreed that NATO was essential for Turkey's security, versus 52 percent in 2005. Even though Turkey opened official membership talks with the European Union last year -- after strenuous efforts to meet the union's criteria -- only 54 percent of Turks now view membership as a good thing, versus 73 percent in 2004.

Beyond that, both Turkey and the U.S. have recently made moves that damage the countries' bilateral relationship. In late September, the Senate Banking Committee blocked U.S. Export-Import Bank funding for a proposed railway project that would connect Turkey with Azerbaijan through Georgia, bypassing Armenian territory. This measure was backed by the Armenian lobby, which argued that the railway amounted to "an economic embargo against Armenia." For its own part, the Turkish government did itself no favors with respect to its relations with the U.S. when it decided not to freeze the assets of Yasin el-Kadi, who appears on the UN's list of terrorism financiers. Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan said of El-Kadi: "I believe in him as I believe in myself." One source opined that these actions by the U.S. and Turkey are "a textbook example of the failure of diplomacy and foreign policy: get nothing and pay a dear price for it."

All this is occurring against the backdrop of Turkey's battle against Kurdish separatist terrorism. As I have previously discussed on this blog, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) have both launched a series of attacks that serve to undermine the Turkish economy, with the PKK targeting oil and gas pipelines while the TAK targets the tourist industry. These attacks have further damaged U.S.-Turkish relations, as Turkish popular perception holds that the U.S. isn't doing enough to help Turkey combat Kurdish separatist terror. There are even allegations -- fed by a recent interview with the brother of jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan -- that the U.S. has been funding and supporting the PKK.

Turkey is a significant ally in the war on terror for a number of reasons. The direction of Turkish public opinion coupled with recent events provides cause for concern about the state of U.S.-Turkish relations. Ultimately, the New York Times was correct when it editorialized: "The United States must not ever take Turkey for granted."

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research for this analysis.

TrackBack