Financial institutions already worry about potential terrorist attacks

By Andrew Cochran

The Department of Homeland Security has issued an advisory to banks and financial institutions that al Qaeda may be planning cyber attacks on their websites, after a jihadist website posted threats of denial-of-service attacks during December. In reality, the financial sector is used to cybercrime and attacks of various types; in early November, 16 people in the US and Poland were arrested on suspicion of involvement in a 2004 phishing attack on a bank, in which over 100,000 credit and debit cards from more than 1,000 individuals were compromised. The 9-11 attacks heightened the importance of sound physical and systems security in the financial markets. Accordingly, the US Congress has paid special attention to this subject and commissioned periodic reports by Congress' audit arm, the Government Accountability Office.

GAO reports over the past 3+ years indicate the increasing ability of financial institutions to withstand terrorist attacks on physical and information infrastructure. In February 2003, GAO issued this report on the impacts to the financial markets from the 9-11 attacks, warning that by October 2002, organizations with critical roles in financial market operations had not taken sufficient protection and recovery measures to prevent a business disruption. Two years later, GAO reviewed the information systems of those organizations again and found that the organizations "are taking steps to prevent their operations from being disrupted by electronic attacks."

During my tenure on Capitol Hill as a counsel for the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, I met often with officials in the industry responsible for protection of critical infrastructure, and I was impressed with the depth of commitment by all major players in the industry and the rapid improvement after the 9-11 attacks. The little-appreciated responses to the attacks included herculean efforts by the Federal Reserve System, the Treasury Department, the New York Stock Exchange, and major institutions to build redundancy into the financial system so a physical or cyber attack cannot disrupt markets, as occurred in the week after the 9-11 attacks (see pages 4 and 5 of the first GAO report linked above). In my last hearing as committee counsel, government and industry officials reviewed the response of the markets to the massive power blackout in the Northeast US in August 2003. The biggest blackout in US history, affecting up to 40 million Americans, caused barely a burp in the financial markets (see this official report coordinated by the Treasury Department).

So while any warning of a potential terrorist cyberattack should be taken seriously, I'm confident the worst such attack would not stop stock and bond trading or payment clearance mechanisms for any significant length of time.

Suicide Bombings Underscore Terrorist Presence in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

As my colleague Douglas Farah has noted, a State Department official has finally acknowledged that al-Qaeda is operating "with great comfort" in Somalia. This terrorist presence was underscored by three suicide car bombings that took place today outside the transitional federal government's (TFG) base in Baidoa. The Associated Press notes that "[t]he attack had the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation." Initial reports indicate that eight people died in the blasts (including two policemen, three drivers, and three accomplices), but a senior official in the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has claimed that at least twenty-four Ethiopian soldiers were killed.

This is the second instance of a suicide car bombing in Baidoa in the last three months. On September 18, president Abdullahi Yusuf's convoy was attacked. Eleven people, including Yusuf's younger brother, were killed.

There are two strategic implications to this latest suicide bombing. First, the ICU may be preparing for a final assault on Baidoa. Along with the suicide bombing, the ICU has begun to attack the Ethiopian military's supply lines. The ICU has surrounded Baidoa for a significant time, and has been beefing up its numbers and supplies. According to a confidential UN report that has been leaked to the media, the ICU has received weapons -- as well as training and financing -- from the likes of Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Hizballah. While the ICU's final push into Baidoa has appeared imminent in the past, it may now be drawing closer.

A second implication is that there should now be no lingering question about the presence of foreign fighters and al-Qaeda militants in Somalia. After the suicide bombing, TFG deputy defense minister Salad Ali Jelle stated that there were non-Somalis among the dead, and referred to them as "al-Qaeda supporters." A police officer at the scene told the Associated Press that three men who were captured appeared to be African but were not Somali. The revelation of foreign fighter involvement in the suicide attack comes on top of the SITE Institute obtaining a tape released by the al-Fajr Information Center entitled "Apostate Hell in Somalia." The SITE Institute notes that the video features ICU figures including Abu Qutayba and Abu Mansuur, and explains that the video "shows the training of the fighters, glorification of the Emir of al-Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, and interviews with the Islamic poet, Abshir Bacadle, and a female Mujahida." While the ICU and its supporters may continue to insist that there is no foreign fighter or al-Qaeda presence in Somalia, these protests should now fall on deaf ears.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

FinCEN Director Bob Werner to Leave His Post

By Dennis Lormel

Robert W. Werner, Director, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced his resignation on November 21, 2006. FinCEN is the United States’ Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and plays an important role in the government’s anti-money laundering and terrorist financing efforts. Mr. Werner is the third Senior Executive to leave FinCEN in the last year. Bob succeeded Bill Fox as Director. Bill left in January 2006, to accept a Senior Management position with Bank of America. Likewise, William Langford resigned from FinCen as Associate Director of Regulatory Policy and Programs at the end of March 2006. William accepted a Senior Management position with JPMorgan Chase.

Bob Werner will be leaving FinCEN at year end. He accepted a Senior Management position with Merrill Lynch. Like Fox and Langford, Werner established a visible and credible leadership position in his role as Director of FinCEN. He balanced the demands of law enforcement, the regulators and the banking industry with a great deal of understanding and sensitivity. In addition, Mr. Werner maintained FinCEN’s leadership role with the Egmont Group, the international body of FIU’s. Bob was visible and approachable. He accepted numerous opportunities to speak and participate at industry conferences where he addressed significant issues openly and honestly. As a result, Bob earned the respect of his diverse constituency.

As was the case with Bill Fox and William Langford, I’m sorry to see Bob depart. He served FinCEN well. On the other hand, I’m happy for the opportunity presented to him. I wish Bob and his family well with their new endeavors.

The loss of Fox, Langford and Werner within a year’s time is cause for concern. As an agency, FinCEN will continue to perform its responsibilities in a capable manner. However, the turnover of senior officials in such a compressed time frame places a strain on mission continuity and constituency liaison. The loss of executive personnel at FinCEN is no different then that encountered by other government agencies, most notably the FBI. It is a government wide problem. This “brain drain” requires closer scrutiny and assessment. I plan to follow up with a post specifically addressing this issue.

Returning to Bob Werner, prior to accepting the position of Director at FinCEN, he served as Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). In both Directorship’s, Bob served the country with dignity and distinction. He deserves our gratitude and admiration.

A Belated Acknowledgement on Somalia

By Douglas Farah

Finally, rather than pretending Somalia is an unimportant side show in fighting Islamists in Africa, a senior official has actually acknowledged what is really happening.

Jendayi Frazer, the State Department's head of Africa, told reporters that al Qaeda is operating "with great comfort" in Somalia. In previous statements Frazer and others have advocated dialogue with the Islamist Council of Somali Islamic Courts and downplayed the al Qaeda presence there.

The CSIC is expanding its influence and the African Union have (again) proved incapable of timely action or anything close to a serious response. And, as in Sudan, Arab countries that could exercise influence in the region, have stood by silently, unwilling to tackle the bloodshed and violence. The only thing standing between a complete the CSIC and control of most of Somalia is the threat of a large military intervention by Ethiopia.

That, in turn, poses the threat of a broader war throughout the Horn of Africa. The recent U.N. Panel of Experts report on Somalia identified nine countries that are funneling weapons to the different sides in the nation (although the vast majority goes to the CSIC), all in violation of an international arms embargo. My full blog is here.

Federal Court Judge Questions Legality of Executive Order Designation of Terrorists

By Victor Comras

In what could become a very problematic ruling, US District Court Judge Audrey Collins has challenged the President’s “unfettered” authority to designate individuals or groups as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs)” by Executive order. The court found that “the President’s authority to designate SDGT’s under Executive Order 13224 is unconstitutionally vague on its face.” The Court also held that language in the Executive Order allowing the Treasury Department to designate SDGT’s on the basis of their being “otherwise associated with” SDGT’s is “unconstitutionally vague on its face and overbroad.” (Full Decision is linked here) This ruling, if it stands, could have major implications with regard to the 27 Al Qaeda associated entities that were specifically designated by the President as SDGTs in Executive Order 13224. It could also have an impact on past Executive Orders under which Presidents have designated and blocked the assets of specific individuals and entities under various IEEPA based sanctions programs.

This decision comes in a case brought by five organizations and two United States citizens seeking to provide support to the “lawful, nonviolent activities of the Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) (“PKK”) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (“LTTE”).” The effect of the ruling on the 27 Al Qaeda associated entities that were specifically designated by the President as SDGTs in that Executive order is unclear. The Judge refused to provide a blanket injunction and only enjoined the Government from taking action against the 7 parties in this case. The decision also leaves untouched the authority of the State Department and the Treasury Department to designate, under regulations, “foreign persons determined … to have committed, or to pose a significant risk of committing, acts of terrorism that threaten the security of U.S. nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States;{and} …persons determined …to be owned or controlled by, or to act for or on behalf of those persons ….”

The Judge concluded that “the EO provides no explanation of the basis upon which these twenty-seven groups and individuals were designated, and references no findings akin to those the secretary of treasury is required to make. In addition, the procedures for challenging designations made by the secretary of treasury are not clearly available with regard to designations made by the President. In short, the criteria and processes discussed above that apply to the delegated designation authority, and that help ensure its constitutionality, do not appear to apply to the President’s designation authority. Rather, the President’s designation authority is subject only to his unfettered discretion. Finally, nothing in the EO appears to
divest the President of his authority to make additional designations.”

The Court also reasoned that the prohibition on being “otherwise associated with” an SDGT "on its face unconstitutionally intrudes upon activity protected by the First Amendment {since}… the term “otherwise associated” is not itself susceptible of a clear meaning {and}…. the provision contains no definition of the term whatsoever. Accordingly, the provision lends itself to subjective interpretation…. Second…{the} provision contains no definable criteria for designating individuals and groups as SDGTs. Thus, the provision on its face gives the Government unfettered discretion in enforcing it. Accordingly, the “otherwise associated with” provision is unconstitutionally vague on its face."

I think the outcome in this case is wrong and that, if followed, this decision could call into question some of the most effective measures we have to combat terrorism and terrorism financing. And the idea that one can distinguish and/or control the use of funds or other resources, including those provided for humanitarian purposes, by organizations engaged in terrorism is ludicrous. Nevertheless, the Judge’s decision serves well to remind us all of the delicate balancing act that must constantly be re-evaluated when it comes to protecting our security and maintaining our rights and freedoms. Conservative commentators shouldn’t be too quick to criticize Judge Collins for telling the Administration that the President's authority to designate individuals and entities as SDGT's should not be "unfettered." It should be subject to some objective criteria and to some judicial or administrative review. But, I don't think that this case was the right vehicle for that message. After all, neither the PKK or the LTTE were mentioned, or designated in the annex to that Executive Order. They were designated by the State Department under regulations issued pursuant to the Executive Order.

European Privacy Czars Seek to Stop Terror Finance Monitoring

By Jonathan Winer

The data protection authorities of the European Union have long cast a hostile eye on counter-terrorist initiatives undertaken by the US, and previously worked to invalidate an agreement between the U.S. and the EU on data sharing of passengers bound for the United States, which in national security terms, should be a no-brainer.

Now, the body representing all of the EU's privacy czars, known as the Article 29 Committee, has unanimously reached the opinion, issued November 23, that U.S. access to the SWIFT payments system, which is based in Brussels, constitutes what the Commitee terms a "serious breach" of the EU's Data Protection Directive, which protects the privacy and security of all personal data in the EU against disclosure, except with the consent of the data subject, or unless certain other exceptions apply.

While national security and law enforcement are among the most important exceptions, and built into the fundamental framework of the Directive, the Committee found that "the hidden, systematic, massive and long-term transfer of personal data by SWIFT to the UST in a confidential, non-transparent and systematic manner for years without effective legal grounds and without the possibility of independent control by public data protection supervisory authorities constitutes a violation of the fundamental European principles as regards data protection and is not in accordance with Belgian and European law." (The EU's summary of the opinion, and a link to the full opinion is provided here.)

The privacy czars demanded that SWIFT sharing be stopped immediately, and that sanctions be imposed on SWIFT and any financial institutions that fail to take adequate precautions to stop U.S. access to SWIFT. If implemented, this ruling would end access that has until now permitted the U.S. government to engage in link analysis based on tracing financial transactions of known terrorist targets, and thereby to achieve substantial counter-terrorist intelligence successes, described here by the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorist Finance, Stuart Levey.

The EU's privacy czars have no institutional background on terrorism, security or law enforcement issues, and operate independently of their governments to protect the EU's privacy laws. Nevertheless, they expressed the opinion that governments could take other steps to make up for any damage to counter terrorist efforts created by shutting down SWIFT access, stating that the "existing international framework is already available with regard to the fight against terrorism. The possibilities already offered should be exploited while ensuring the required level of protection of fundamental rights."

The Privacy Czars did not suggest what "the possibilities already offered" to make up for the loss of SWIFT access might be.

Latest Targeting of Iraqi Oil Sources Perpetuates Trend

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Smoke covered the sky in Baghdad yesterday as insurgents bombed a pipeline in one of the city's southern suburbs and hit an oil distribution center in northern Iraq with mortar rounds. Both attacks caused fires, and CNN reports that the attack on the oil distribution center "halted the flow of crude oil to Iraq's largest refinery."

It's entirely intuitive why terrorists would target oil installations. On the one hand, attacks on pipelines and refineries damage the economy of the country whose installations the terrorists are targeting. But these attacks also damage countries that are dependent on petroleum imports, notably the United States. Over a year ago I wrote an article entitled "Al Qaeda's Oil Weapon" that describes the evolution in al-Qaeda's thinking on the issue. While Osama bin Laden declared Saudi oil wealth off limits as a military target in 1996 because it was a key resource for the caliphate that he wished to establish, his thinking shifted as crippling the U.S. economy became the centerpiece of his strategy for defeating America. In mid-December 2004, an audiotape by bin Laden instructed his followers to focus their operations on oil production, "especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]."

Terrorists -- both those affiliated with al-Qaeda and also those who aren't -- have frequently targeted oil sources. Al-Qaeda has purportedly claimed responsibility for two mid-September suicide bombing attacks against Yemeni installations in the Mareb and Haramut provinces that came just thirty-five minutes apart. In August, the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) targeted a natural gas pipeline in Turkey, the latest in a string of PKK attacks against Turkish natural gas pipelines. In February, two suicide bombers launched an unsuccessful attack against the world's biggest oil processing complex, the Abqaiq complex through which nearly two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's oil flows for processing before export. And that same month, as my associate Kyle Dabruzzi has described, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta launched its "Dark February" campaign, attacking Nigerian oil pipelines, kidnapping nine workers, and sabotaging the oil fields.

But most telling is the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security's Iraq Pipeline Watch, which documents a stunning 374 attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines, installations, and personnel from June 12, 2003 through November 2, 2006. We can add these latest attacks to this already voluminous list -- and should expect that future terrorist attacks will continue to target the oil supply.

Update: Chechen Mujahideen Confirm Killing of Abu Hafs al-Urdani

By Evan Kohlmann

The Chechen mujahideen have issued a terse formal statement today through their media arm, Sawt al-Qoqaz ("Voice of Chechnya"), confirming the killing of notorious Jordanian jihadist Abu Hafs al-Urdani in Dagestan. According to the statement, "on Sunday, a fierce battle occurred between a Russian commando unit and the unit of commander Abu Hafs. As a result, commander Abu Hafs has been martyred along with two other mujahideen. We ask almighty Allah to accept them among his martyrs. We will provide further details later, Allah willing."

See: Alleged Jordanian Zarqawi Associate Reported Killed by Russian Forces in the Caucasus

More Bad News on Lebanon

By David Schenker

Headlines from Lebanon today describe an explosion on the Syria side of the Lebanese-Syrian border. Details remain sketchy, but it appears that an Islamic militant belonging to an Al Qaida affiliate was interdicted while attempting to enter Lebanon. The militant—a Syrian leader of the al-Qaeda-linked Tawhid and Jihad group—reportedly was killed when a grenade he was carrying detonated.

The explosion highlights the increasingly tense environment in Lebanon following the assassination last week of Maronite Cabinet Member Pierre Gemayel. It also points to the growing potential for Sunni-Shiite conflict in Lebanon. Should Hizballah follow through on its threat to demonstrate in an effort to topple the Siniora Government, there is a very real possibility that violence could ensue. Some Lebanese politicians have suggested that the situation may deteriorate to another round of civil war.

In other news, the New York Times reported today that Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah has trained between 1,000 and 2,000 Iraqi Shiite militia members in Lebanon. To paraphrase General Renault from Casablanca, I’m shocked, shocked to find that the Iranians are cooperating with their client Hizballah to undermine stability in Iraq and kill American and coalition forces.

I had an article in National Review online yesterday (11-27) on the situation in Lebanon. It is linked here and appears below.

The Hijab, a weapon for Islamists worldwide

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for this week's Weekly Standard on the veil controversy. The hijab is one of the main weapons used by Islamists whether Shia or Sunni to impose their views of the world.
The whole article can be found here.
Here's an excerpt:

IN 1989, the first hijab incident in Europe took place in Creil, a suburb of Paris, when three high school girls tried to go to class wearing the Islamic headscarf. The students were expelled. Fifteen years later, with the hijab spreading fast among Muslims in France, the government formally banned the wearing of religious symbols in public schools. At the time, most European countries criticized French "intolerance" and deemed the issue a uniquely Gallic problem. But it wasn't. Today most European countries--and a number of Muslim countries--are debating what to do about this increasingly problematic sign of Islamization.

The British were among the most vocal critics of the French ban--back when they were still quite pleased with their own multicultural model. But on October 5, ex-foreign minister Jack Straw revealed that he regularly asked women who came to see him wearing face veils to take them off. Straw pointed out that veils are bad for community relations, and Prime Minister Blair added that the veil is a "mark of separation." This debate coincided with the decision of a British principal to fire an assistant teacher who refused to remove her full-face veil, or niqab, while teaching. Joining the fray was author Salman Rushdie, whose elegant contribution was the statement, "Veils suck." Tensions are rising, fueled by accusations of Islamophobia from some Muslim officials. There is fear that race riots could break out in some British suburbs.

Then there is Germany, where four states have barred public school teachers from wearing the hijab. Some brave female politicians born in Turkey spoke out on the issue in an October 15 interview with Bild am Sonntag. One of them, Ekin Deligoz, a Green party member of parliament, advised fellow Muslim women: "You live here, so take off the headscarf." She added that the headscarf is a symbol of female oppression. Because of her comments, Deligoz has received death threats and is now under police protection.

What is Russia's Real Game (Again, with Viktor Bout?)

By Douglas Farah

What is Russia's real role in the efforts to combat terrorism? While the Bush administration seems to cling to the notion that Russia is an ally, there are several developments that point in the opposite direction.

The first, of course, is the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, where the foul play of the Russian security apparatus, closely tied to Mr. Putin, is the prime suspect. The fact that the murder was committed in London and dismissed out of hand as unimportant by Mr. Putin show both a new boldness and the lack of any pretense of accountability by the Russians.

There is also the arming of Iran and help with the Iranian nuclear program, and the close intelligence ties to Hezbollah.

But there is another, barely noticed development in the United States that should be extremely worrisome. A small sporting goods store in rural Pennsylvania was just busted for selling telescopic rifle scopes, binoculars and optics, which need State Department export authorization, to a Russian company that did not have such a license.

As the my colleauge and co-author Stephen Braun write in the Los Angeles Times, the affidavit for carrying out the search states that the Russian company is "Tactica Ltd., a Moscow firm that was described by investigators as 'a member of the 'Vympel Group,' which is a known identifier for an elite counter-terrorism unit that is controlled by the Russian Federal Security Service [formerly the KGB].'" My full blog is here.

Alleged Jordanian Zarqawi Associate Reported Killed by Russian Forces in the Caucasus

By Evan Kohlmann

Representatives of Russian security forces in the Caucasus are now claiming that they have killed the top foreign mujahideen leader active in the region--Jordanian national and alleged Zarqawi associate Abu Hafs al-Urdani--following a four-hour shoot-out in the Dagestani town of Khasavyurt.

Abu Hafs was born in 1973 in Jordan. After finishing his university studies, Abu Hafs traveled in 1995 to Chechnya to join the growing foreign mujahideen movement led by Saudi national Samir al-Suwailem (a.k.a. Ibn-ul-Khattab). After demonstrating "outstanding military capabilities and strategic thinking", Abu Hafs was appointed to be a training instructor for arriving recruits. When al-Suwailem was killed in March 2002, Abu Hafs advanced forward to become deputy commander under Suwailem's successor in Chechnya, Saudi national Abu al-Walid al-Ghamdi. Later, following the subsequent deaths of al-Ghamdi and fellow Saudi national Abu Omar al-Saif, Abu Hafs became the top commander of the foreign mujahideen in the Caucasus region. The U.S. State Department has publicly named Abu Hafs al-Urdani as a central coordinator of the transnational Al-Qaida network managed by the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Abu Hafs al-Urdani was recently interviewed by a Turkish newspaper, a copy of which was translated and republished by Jihad Unspun and the Kavkaz Center. Although he denied being a member of Al-Qaida, he insisted, "I have gone out for Jihad in the Way of Allah... Would it be fair to those who protect honor, religion and the oppressed Muslim brothers to name members of Al-Qaeda? ....My opinion is that they are group of Muslim Mujahideen, similarly to other groups. They help Islam and the oppressed Muslim and Usama Bin Laden is one of the leaders of Jihad. I ask Allah to help everybody who shows diligence on His Way."

The foreign mujahideen active in Chechnya have yet to formally acknowledge the death of Abu Hafs al-Urdani, but they have not issued any official denials either.

See also:
(January 2006) - Jordanian Zarqawi Ally Resurfaces in Chechnya

Australia Finds US Pressure on Iran Having an Impact

By Jonathan Winer

On November 20, Australia's Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (EFIC), found that "de facto sanctions" were having an impact on investment in Iran and Iranian financial access to international payments systems.

In its latest Market Watch newsletter, EFIC cited its chief economist, Roger Donnelly, as finding that banks and insurers involved in the trade and project finance markets have been taking steps to limit Iranian risk, despite the fact that Iran has been a "lucrative" market.

The newsletter (here) quoted Donnelly as stating that “Cover is still available, but banks and insurers are reportedly cutting their limits and raising prices energetically. This includes letter of credit (LC) confirmation . . political risk insurance and project finance.”

The Australian economist found that Iran's ability to obtain goods and services had likely not yet been hindered, as it could finance its needs through purchases made through cash generated by oil revenues. But the sanctions are creating what he termed "friction," to transactions involving Iran, and impair the ability of foreigners to do business with Iran.

From here, the question is whether the U.S. will secure agreement from other countries to initiate broader limitations on their financial institutions handling of Iranian related transactions, given its proliferation program and utter lack of any form of controls on its funds-at-origin.

India Awakes to Vital Installation Threat as Separatists Continue to Attack Railway

By Animesh Roul

Lately though, India’s security and intelligence establishment woke up to series of novel terrorist threats ranging from a number of possible targets including prominent individuals, vital installations, economic centers, monuments and maritime infrastructures. On November 22, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil cautiously indicated that one "foreign country" and its “spy agency” have been directing terrorist outfits to perpetrate violent activities in India. However, he refrained himself from uttering Pakistan and ISI. India's atomic power plants and installations in the oil and natural gas sector are most vulnerable to terrorist strike, according to Mr Patil. He also added that defence, communications and Information Technology (IT) sector are equally vulnerable to attacks.

In early November, threats from suspected al-Qaeda terrorists to perpetrate major attacks on airports in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, followed by a hijack alert from FBI initiated widespread security arrangements across all major airports in the country.

Amid this state of high alert and preparedness, India’s northeast rebels attacked passenger train and railway station in less than five days.

Report: Iraq-Based Jihadists Seek to Expand War to North Africa

By Evan Kohlmann

According to reports in Arab media, personnel from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) visited the Moroccan city of Rabat last week to investigate an apparent increase in the number of Moroccan mujahideen volunteers traveling to Iraq in order to join Al-Qaida. CIA officials allegedly scheduled the visit after Moroccan intelligence services presented them with the names of two young men from the northern Moroccan town of Tetouan who had recently executed suicide bomb attacks in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. Reportedly, the men were accompanied on their journey to Iraq by at least seven other would-be jihadist companions from their neighborhood in Tetouan (who remain at large).

The Moroccan government has grave concerns that elements from the nascent Moroccan Tawhid wal-Jihad Movement and the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC) are intent upon using the cauldron in Iraq to mobilize a new armed front for Al-Qaida in North Africa. Local media also reports that Moroccan authorities have recently intercepted a telephone conversation between a militant inside Morocco and another Moroccan national hiding in Syria. The two men discussed a plan to travel to Algeria in order to receive advanced training from veteran GSPC instructors and to establish an official joint Al-Qaida branch covering all of North Africa.

UN Deadlock On Defining Terrorism Persists

By Victor Comras

The UN General Assembly’s Sixth (Legal) Committee again failed this session to break the deadlock preventing progress on a Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Convention and a Definition of Terrorism that would be binding on all countries. The Committee adjourned November 21st after rescheduling further discussions for February, 2007. While the Committee issued its own condemnation of terrorism it failed to make progress on key issues including the definition of terrorism and scope of application of the convention. The deadlock involves differences between Western Countries and the Countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. The OIC countries continue to insist on language that would exempt armed resistance groups involved in so-called ”struggles against colonial domination and foreign occupation.” At the same time they want the convention to specifically cover the activities of regular armed forces, which, because they are covered by other humanitarian and Law of War Conventions, now fall outside the purview of the terrorism convention. (For more details on these issues see my October 25, 2005 Blog).

Why is a terrorism definition so important? First of all it provides common ground for international cooperation in combating terrorism. It lays the foundation for requesting and receiving the mutual assistance and support required under the various UN counter terrorism resolutions and the 12 international counter -terrorism conventions now in place. The absence of a terrorism definition seriously hinders any effort to coordinate an international response to terrorism. Without a common definition countries remain free to interpret their own obligations and define for themselves which groups are terrorists and which are "freedom fighters." Saudi Arabia uses this distinction, for example, to get away with funding Hamas, while Iran and Syria use it to provide funds and support to Hezbollah. But, many other countries have also used it to avoid taking steps to freeze funds or take other civil or criminal action against those individuals or groups which they support. For a further discussion of these issues see my previous blog posted March 14, 2006.

Unified Africa Command Would be Important Step

By Douglas Farah

With Somalia largely in the hands of fundamentalist Islamist groups, the Democratic Republic of Congo reeling in the efforts to hold free and fair elections, the Darfur crisis and its spillover to other countries, and reports of increased activity of both al Qaeda-affiliated Salafist groups and Iranian/Hezbollah affiliated Shi'ite groups, the United States can no longer afford to leave the vast African continent on the bottom rung of international priorities.

After several years of internal debate, the Pentagon is finally recognizing this reality and is moving to fast-track the creation of an "Africa Command," on par with the Southern Command (South America), European Command etc.

As an unfortunate relic of the Cold War, Africa is currently divided among three different commands: European, Central and, for the islands off the east coast, the Pacific Command. This means no single group has responsibility, accumulates historic knowledge or expertise, or looks at the entire package of inter-related issues, from terrorism to organized criminal structures to HIV/AIDs.

Rep. Ed Royce, one of Congress' most knowledgeable Africa hands and prime mover of the restructuring, outlined the difficulties this approach has brought in a Nov. 14 op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor:

"The core function of a combatant command is to plan for military contingencies in the region. Yet Central Command has its hands full fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan-and watching Iran. While the European Command has been increasing its Africa activities, its key focus has followed the eastward expansion of NATO. The Pacific Command, meanwhile, is headquartered more than 10,000 miles from Madagascar. These commands are challenged to closely monitor Africa's troubled states and vast ungoverned areas."
My full blog is here.

al Qaeda wants an "American Madrid"

By Walid Phares

The Washington Times. November 22, 3006

The latest audio by al Qaeda's Iraq commander -- posted 48 hours after the midterm elections -- sends a clear signal to the readers of the jihadi strategic mind: Al Qaeda and its advisers around the world want to provoke an "American Madrid." Portraying the United States as a bleeding bull in disarray, the war room projects its wish to see America's will crippled. The video attempts to do the following:

1. Convince the jihadists that the United States is now defeated in Iraq and beyond. While no reversal of the balance of power has taken place on the ground, the jihadi propaganda machine is linking the shift in domestic politics to a withdrawal from Iraq. It projects the change in Washington as a crumbling of the political process in Baghdad and America's foreign policy. Interestingly, others in the region are also "announcing" the upcoming defeat of America in the war on terror. Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah declared: "The Americans are leaving, and their allies will pay the price."

A war for nothing

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote an article for FrontPage Magazine on the aftermath of the July war. I am making the point that another war is looming because nothing at all has been solved and the powerless UNIFIL is going to leave sooner than later. You can read the whole piece here.
Here's an excerpt:

In the wake of this summer’s bloody, 33-day war between Hezbollah and Israel, most analysts predicted that the region would never be the same. In fact, they asserted that with UN Resolution 1701, Hezbollah would be disarmed and expelled from its redoubt in southern Lebanon. This in turn would give effective control of the region to the Lebanese Army, while a UNIFIL force 15,000-men strong would secure the cease-fire and put an end to the armed conflict.

But the present reality is far from this rosy picture. Indeed, one can make the case that this summer’s hostilities have achieved little and that another war will resume in the near future.

A few prescient facts confirm this grim assessment. First, there is the anti-Israel composition of the Lebanese army. Forty percent of the 60,000-strong Lebanese army is composed of Shiite soldiers, many whom are extremely favorable to Hezbollah. There are also thousands of ex-Syrian troops, who joined the Lebanese Army when Syria “officially” left Lebanon last year, just before the Syrian withdrawal, when thousands of Syrian soldiers were naturalized and incorporated into the ranks of the army.

Response to the Terrorist assassination of Pierre Gemayel

By Walid Phares

"Removing Lahoud and applying Chapter 7"

The assassination of Minister Pierre Gemayel in Beirut is another war crime against the democratically elected Government and Parliament of Lebanon, and another strike in the Terror War waged by the Syrian regime and its allies against the Cedars Revolution and Lebanon's targeted democracy. Hence, the response should be produced by the international community, starting from the United Nations' Security Council to the various countries worldwide concerned with democracy and human rights.

Pierre Amin Gemayel was an elected member of parliament in June 2005 after the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April of the same year. He was one of the leaders of the Cedars Revolution and the minister of Industry in the Seniora Government. Gemayel was an active advocate against the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, for the implemetation of UNSCR 1559 and calling for the disarming of all militias, including Hezbollah. The young leader has been calling for the resignation of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and for the prosecution of the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. In short, Pierre A. Gemayel was one of the pillars of the resistance to the Syrian and Iranian regimes in Lebanon. He, and his colleagues were calling for the disarming of Hezbollah and the inclusion of moderate Shiite leaders in the political process.

Hezbollah and the Syrian-Iranian axis have considered the last legislative elections in the US and the formation of the Baker Commission as a signal to wage terror campaigns to crumble the political process in Iraq and the cabinet in Lebanon. This week, secretary general of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and his allies were preparing to wage an urban uprising against the Government. But the supporters of the Cedars Revolution said they will take the streets again.

Hence, as we witnessed today in Beirut, the "Terror arm" of the Syro-Iranian camp moved forward to strike the Government instead.

1) Killing three ministers would paralyze the functioning of the cabinet per internal regulations. The assassination of Pierre Gemayel is a step in the campaign to "empty the cabinet" of its members.

2) This assassination aims at intimidating civil society from mobilizing against the pro-Syrian campaign.

In response, the international community should act swiftly in defense of Lebanon's population under the UN Chapter 7, by voting a new resolution to reinforce the UNIFIL in Lebanon and endow it with a deterrence and security mandate to protect civil society from violence as was the case in East Timor and Kosovo.

The Cedars Revolution real and strategic response to the Terror War waged against Lebanon's civil society should be to press for the removal of Emile Lahoud from the Presidency and disband his security operatives.

Adapted from comments to al Hurra TV.

Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

The Danger of Empowering Terrorist States

By Douglas Farah

The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a vocal opponent of Syrian involvement in the country and a leader of the country's Maronite Christian minority, shows the dangers of engaging terrorist states in dialogue as if they were not rational actors, as James Baker and other proponents of the "realist" world view seem to assume.

It seems fairly certain that Syria and its allies in Hezbollah, smarting at the loss of influence in Lebanon and wanting to halt the investigation into the Hariri by whatever means necessary, had a hand in what was correctly labeled a terrorist attack. Hezbollah and its allies in Amal are actively working to destabilize the current government in hopes of extracting more power. Syria and Iran are among the most powerful forces moving the Lebanese drama.

The timing of the attack on Gemayel is interesting. With the Baker Commisson clearly leaning toward recommending a U.S. dialogue with Iran and Syria on Iraq, the two terrorist sponsors are now the new power players in the region. The Bush administration will need them to implement the recommended changes on its Iraq policy, and, since the mid-term elections, is already operating from a position of weakness.

But the price of seriously engaging Syria and Iran will be enormously high. It may be viewed as necessary, but ultimately it will be extremely high. My full blog is here.

The latest murder of Christian Lebanese Minister Gemayel is pushing Lebanon closer to civil war

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, the timing and the murder of anti Syrian Christian Minister Pierre Gemayel should not be any surprise. Indeed for months now, anti Syrian Lebanese personalities have been under heavy physical threat. Some of them have been even shuttling between Paris and Beirut to lessen the odds of them being killed. Even French President Chirac has been pointing out about the imminent dangers and offered in some cases protection for top leaders. Also recently a list has been circulated with the names of the potential victims of Syrian terror. The most prominent politicians including Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Fuad Siniora, Samir Gegea are rounding the top spots on the list.
While there's no doubt that Syria is all over this latest murder as it was in the 2005 targeted assassinations of anti Syrian activists, intellectuals and journalists, the operatives might turn out to be pro Syrian Lebanese, including potentially Hezbollah members. Indeed it's no coincidence that Hezbollah left the Siniora government ten days ago and is preparing massive street demonstrations for Thursday; Jumblatt actually thinks it's going to be part of a coup. Also since the Siniora government just approved the installation of an international tribunal to find out the truth about the murder of Rafik Hariri which will likely prove Syria's central role, Syria wanted to send a clear and loud message. Today's murder of Pierre Gemayel and also today's attempt on the life of anti Syrian Minister Michel Pharaon are the signs of Syria's strategy of escalation to plunging the country in chaos and if possible into a civil war.
Two years ago, Syrian President Bashir Assad warned that if his army was to leave Lebanon it will burn and destroy the country beyond recognition. Since Syria supposedly left Lebanon in 2005 (they really did not Syrian troops joined the Lebanese army and Syrian secret service is still infiltrated in top positions), it had one goal: come back.
Using its proxy Hizbullah is one of the ways for Syria to reach that goal.
What remains still the most striking is that very recently, US, French and British top leaders have warned very clearly Syria not to meddle into Lebanese affairs even stating that Syria was the biggest destabilizing factor. If the West and these countries in particular are serious about protecting Lebanon and facing heads on Syria, it's high time they act now because Syria for the moment could not care less about the West's warnings.

BIOTERRORISM: CONFERENCES AND CONCERNS

By Michael Kraft

The threat of terrorists using biological agents to inflict mass casualties received renewed attention at a United Nations conference this week and an Interpol workshop earlier this month.

In Geneva, the sixth review conference on the Convention on Biological Weapons (CBW) opened this week with the U.S. delegation warning that Iran and North Korea may have germ warfare weapons and Syrian is conducting research. Meanwhile U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a global forum to discuss with industry as well as governments ways of preventing terrorists from obtaining materials they could for biological weapons attacks.

In Kiev, the Ukraine, Interpol held a workshop earlier this month that emphasized the need for countries to develop stronger legislation to cope with possible misuse of biological agents that could be used in terrorist attacks.

The meetings are being held against the background of growing concern that al Qaeda and other terrorists groups that desire to cause large scale casualties are continuing to pursue efforts to use weapons of mass destruction including bio agents, radioactive materials and chemical agents as well as large conventional explosive devices.

On Iraq: Listen carefully to General Abizaid

By Walid Phares

As the debate in the United States is still raging on the Iraq War – and as many believe that the last legislative elections were a message from the American public to change the course in that conflict – the question remains, how.
American politicians and their academic and activist advisors are rushing in all directions to search for that magic answer with most of the debaters parroting basically two main theses advanced by very few authors. One militant doctrine – connecting the radical left and the isolationist right, to (ironically) the Jihadists around the world – calls for immediate withdrawal from Iraq, let alone from the War on Terror. The radical ideologues do not discuss a rational policy in the region they essentially want no U.S. policy at all. So, we'll discount their position.