Financial institutions already worry about potential terrorist attacks

By Andrew Cochran

The Department of Homeland Security has issued an advisory to banks and financial institutions that al Qaeda may be planning cyber attacks on their websites, after a jihadist website posted threats of denial-of-service attacks during December. In reality, the financial sector is used to cybercrime and attacks of various types; in early November, 16 people in the US and Poland were arrested on suspicion of involvement in a 2004 phishing attack on a bank, in which over 100,000 credit and debit cards from more than 1,000 individuals were compromised. The 9-11 attacks heightened the importance of sound physical and systems security in the financial markets. Accordingly, the US Congress has paid special attention to this subject and commissioned periodic reports by Congress' audit arm, the Government Accountability Office.

GAO reports over the past 3+ years indicate the increasing ability of financial institutions to withstand terrorist attacks on physical and information infrastructure. In February 2003, GAO issued this report on the impacts to the financial markets from the 9-11 attacks, warning that by October 2002, organizations with critical roles in financial market operations had not taken sufficient protection and recovery measures to prevent a business disruption. Two years later, GAO reviewed the information systems of those organizations again and found that the organizations "are taking steps to prevent their operations from being disrupted by electronic attacks."

During my tenure on Capitol Hill as a counsel for the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, I met often with officials in the industry responsible for protection of critical infrastructure, and I was impressed with the depth of commitment by all major players in the industry and the rapid improvement after the 9-11 attacks. The little-appreciated responses to the attacks included herculean efforts by the Federal Reserve System, the Treasury Department, the New York Stock Exchange, and major institutions to build redundancy into the financial system so a physical or cyber attack cannot disrupt markets, as occurred in the week after the 9-11 attacks (see pages 4 and 5 of the first GAO report linked above). In my last hearing as committee counsel, government and industry officials reviewed the response of the markets to the massive power blackout in the Northeast US in August 2003. The biggest blackout in US history, affecting up to 40 million Americans, caused barely a burp in the financial markets (see this official report coordinated by the Treasury Department).

So while any warning of a potential terrorist cyberattack should be taken seriously, I'm confident the worst such attack would not stop stock and bond trading or payment clearance mechanisms for any significant length of time.

Suicide Bombings Underscore Terrorist Presence in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

As my colleague Douglas Farah has noted, a State Department official has finally acknowledged that al-Qaeda is operating "with great comfort" in Somalia. This terrorist presence was underscored by three suicide car bombings that took place today outside the transitional federal government's (TFG) base in Baidoa. The Associated Press notes that "[t]he attack had the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation." Initial reports indicate that eight people died in the blasts (including two policemen, three drivers, and three accomplices), but a senior official in the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has claimed that at least twenty-four Ethiopian soldiers were killed.

This is the second instance of a suicide car bombing in Baidoa in the last three months. On September 18, president Abdullahi Yusuf's convoy was attacked. Eleven people, including Yusuf's younger brother, were killed.

There are two strategic implications to this latest suicide bombing. First, the ICU may be preparing for a final assault on Baidoa. Along with the suicide bombing, the ICU has begun to attack the Ethiopian military's supply lines. The ICU has surrounded Baidoa for a significant time, and has been beefing up its numbers and supplies. According to a confidential UN report that has been leaked to the media, the ICU has received weapons -- as well as training and financing -- from the likes of Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Hizballah. While the ICU's final push into Baidoa has appeared imminent in the past, it may now be drawing closer.

A second implication is that there should now be no lingering question about the presence of foreign fighters and al-Qaeda militants in Somalia. After the suicide bombing, TFG deputy defense minister Salad Ali Jelle stated that there were non-Somalis among the dead, and referred to them as "al-Qaeda supporters." A police officer at the scene told the Associated Press that three men who were captured appeared to be African but were not Somali. The revelation of foreign fighter involvement in the suicide attack comes on top of the SITE Institute obtaining a tape released by the al-Fajr Information Center entitled "Apostate Hell in Somalia." The SITE Institute notes that the video features ICU figures including Abu Qutayba and Abu Mansuur, and explains that the video "shows the training of the fighters, glorification of the Emir of al-Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, and interviews with the Islamic poet, Abshir Bacadle, and a female Mujahida." While the ICU and its supporters may continue to insist that there is no foreign fighter or al-Qaeda presence in Somalia, these protests should now fall on deaf ears.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

FinCEN Director Bob Werner to Leave His Post

By Dennis Lormel

Robert W. Werner, Director, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced his resignation on November 21, 2006. FinCEN is the United States’ Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and plays an important role in the government’s anti-money laundering and terrorist financing efforts. Mr. Werner is the third Senior Executive to leave FinCEN in the last year. Bob succeeded Bill Fox as Director. Bill left in January 2006, to accept a Senior Management position with Bank of America. Likewise, William Langford resigned from FinCen as Associate Director of Regulatory Policy and Programs at the end of March 2006. William accepted a Senior Management position with JPMorgan Chase.

Bob Werner will be leaving FinCEN at year end. He accepted a Senior Management position with Merrill Lynch. Like Fox and Langford, Werner established a visible and credible leadership position in his role as Director of FinCEN. He balanced the demands of law enforcement, the regulators and the banking industry with a great deal of understanding and sensitivity. In addition, Mr. Werner maintained FinCEN’s leadership role with the Egmont Group, the international body of FIU’s. Bob was visible and approachable. He accepted numerous opportunities to speak and participate at industry conferences where he addressed significant issues openly and honestly. As a result, Bob earned the respect of his diverse constituency.

As was the case with Bill Fox and William Langford, I’m sorry to see Bob depart. He served FinCEN well. On the other hand, I’m happy for the opportunity presented to him. I wish Bob and his family well with their new endeavors.

The loss of Fox, Langford and Werner within a year’s time is cause for concern. As an agency, FinCEN will continue to perform its responsibilities in a capable manner. However, the turnover of senior officials in such a compressed time frame places a strain on mission continuity and constituency liaison. The loss of executive personnel at FinCEN is no different then that encountered by other government agencies, most notably the FBI. It is a government wide problem. This “brain drain” requires closer scrutiny and assessment. I plan to follow up with a post specifically addressing this issue.

Returning to Bob Werner, prior to accepting the position of Director at FinCEN, he served as Director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). In both Directorship’s, Bob served the country with dignity and distinction. He deserves our gratitude and admiration.

A Belated Acknowledgement on Somalia

By Douglas Farah

Finally, rather than pretending Somalia is an unimportant side show in fighting Islamists in Africa, a senior official has actually acknowledged what is really happening.

Jendayi Frazer, the State Department's head of Africa, told reporters that al Qaeda is operating "with great comfort" in Somalia. In previous statements Frazer and others have advocated dialogue with the Islamist Council of Somali Islamic Courts and downplayed the al Qaeda presence there.

The CSIC is expanding its influence and the African Union have (again) proved incapable of timely action or anything close to a serious response. And, as in Sudan, Arab countries that could exercise influence in the region, have stood by silently, unwilling to tackle the bloodshed and violence. The only thing standing between a complete the CSIC and control of most of Somalia is the threat of a large military intervention by Ethiopia.

That, in turn, poses the threat of a broader war throughout the Horn of Africa. The recent U.N. Panel of Experts report on Somalia identified nine countries that are funneling weapons to the different sides in the nation (although the vast majority goes to the CSIC), all in violation of an international arms embargo. My full blog is here.

Federal Court Judge Questions Legality of Executive Order Designation of Terrorists

By Victor Comras

In what could become a very problematic ruling, US District Court Judge Audrey Collins has challenged the President’s “unfettered” authority to designate individuals or groups as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs)” by Executive order. The court found that “the President’s authority to designate SDGT’s under Executive Order 13224 is unconstitutionally vague on its face.” The Court also held that language in the Executive Order allowing the Treasury Department to designate SDGT’s on the basis of their being “otherwise associated with” SDGT’s is “unconstitutionally vague on its face and overbroad.” (Full Decision is linked here) This ruling, if it stands, could have major implications with regard to the 27 Al Qaeda associated entities that were specifically designated by the President as SDGTs in Executive Order 13224. It could also have an impact on past Executive Orders under which Presidents have designated and blocked the assets of specific individuals and entities under various IEEPA based sanctions programs.

This decision comes in a case brought by five organizations and two United States citizens seeking to provide support to the “lawful, nonviolent activities of the Partiya Karkeran Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) (“PKK”) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (“LTTE”).” The effect of the ruling on the 27 Al Qaeda associated entities that were specifically designated by the President as SDGTs in that Executive order is unclear. The Judge refused to provide a blanket injunction and only enjoined the Government from taking action against the 7 parties in this case. The decision also leaves untouched the authority of the State Department and the Treasury Department to designate, under regulations, “foreign persons determined … to have committed, or to pose a significant risk of committing, acts of terrorism that threaten the security of U.S. nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States;{and} …persons determined …to be owned or controlled by, or to act for or on behalf of those persons ….”

The Judge concluded that “the EO provides no explanation of the basis upon which these twenty-seven groups and individuals were designated, and references no findings akin to those the secretary of treasury is required to make. In addition, the procedures for challenging designations made by the secretary of treasury are not clearly available with regard to designations made by the President. In short, the criteria and processes discussed above that apply to the delegated designation authority, and that help ensure its constitutionality, do not appear to apply to the President’s designation authority. Rather, the President’s designation authority is subject only to his unfettered discretion. Finally, nothing in the EO appears to
divest the President of his authority to make additional designations.”

The Court also reasoned that the prohibition on being “otherwise associated with” an SDGT "on its face unconstitutionally intrudes upon activity protected by the First Amendment {since}… the term “otherwise associated” is not itself susceptible of a clear meaning {and}…. the provision contains no definition of the term whatsoever. Accordingly, the provision lends itself to subjective interpretation…. Second…{the} provision contains no definable criteria for designating individuals and groups as SDGTs. Thus, the provision on its face gives the Government unfettered discretion in enforcing it. Accordingly, the “otherwise associated with” provision is unconstitutionally vague on its face."

I think the outcome in this case is wrong and that, if followed, this decision could call into question some of the most effective measures we have to combat terrorism and terrorism financing. And the idea that one can distinguish and/or control the use of funds or other resources, including those provided for humanitarian purposes, by organizations engaged in terrorism is ludicrous. Nevertheless, the Judge’s decision serves well to remind us all of the delicate balancing act that must constantly be re-evaluated when it comes to protecting our security and maintaining our rights and freedoms. Conservative commentators shouldn’t be too quick to criticize Judge Collins for telling the Administration that the President's authority to designate individuals and entities as SDGT's should not be "unfettered." It should be subject to some objective criteria and to some judicial or administrative review. But, I don't think that this case was the right vehicle for that message. After all, neither the PKK or the LTTE were mentioned, or designated in the annex to that Executive Order. They were designated by the State Department under regulations issued pursuant to the Executive Order.

European Privacy Czars Seek to Stop Terror Finance Monitoring

By Jonathan Winer

The data protection authorities of the European Union have long cast a hostile eye on counter-terrorist initiatives undertaken by the US, and previously worked to invalidate an agreement between the U.S. and the EU on data sharing of passengers bound for the United States, which in national security terms, should be a no-brainer.

Now, the body representing all of the EU's privacy czars, known as the Article 29 Committee, has unanimously reached the opinion, issued November 23, that U.S. access to the SWIFT payments system, which is based in Brussels, constitutes what the Commitee terms a "serious breach" of the EU's Data Protection Directive, which protects the privacy and security of all personal data in the EU against disclosure, except with the consent of the data subject, or unless certain other exceptions apply.

While national security and law enforcement are among the most important exceptions, and built into the fundamental framework of the Directive, the Committee found that "the hidden, systematic, massive and long-term transfer of personal data by SWIFT to the UST in a confidential, non-transparent and systematic manner for years without effective legal grounds and without the possibility of independent control by public data protection supervisory authorities constitutes a violation of the fundamental European principles as regards data protection and is not in accordance with Belgian and European law." (The EU's summary of the opinion, and a link to the full opinion is provided here.)

The privacy czars demanded that SWIFT sharing be stopped immediately, and that sanctions be imposed on SWIFT and any financial institutions that fail to take adequate precautions to stop U.S. access to SWIFT. If implemented, this ruling would end access that has until now permitted the U.S. government to engage in link analysis based on tracing financial transactions of known terrorist targets, and thereby to achieve substantial counter-terrorist intelligence successes, described here by the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorist Finance, Stuart Levey.

The EU's privacy czars have no institutional background on terrorism, security or law enforcement issues, and operate independently of their governments to protect the EU's privacy laws. Nevertheless, they expressed the opinion that governments could take other steps to make up for any damage to counter terrorist efforts created by shutting down SWIFT access, stating that the "existing international framework is already available with regard to the fight against terrorism. The possibilities already offered should be exploited while ensuring the required level of protection of fundamental rights."

The Privacy Czars did not suggest what "the possibilities already offered" to make up for the loss of SWIFT access might be.

Latest Targeting of Iraqi Oil Sources Perpetuates Trend

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Smoke covered the sky in Baghdad yesterday as insurgents bombed a pipeline in one of the city's southern suburbs and hit an oil distribution center in northern Iraq with mortar rounds. Both attacks caused fires, and CNN reports that the attack on the oil distribution center "halted the flow of crude oil to Iraq's largest refinery."

It's entirely intuitive why terrorists would target oil installations. On the one hand, attacks on pipelines and refineries damage the economy of the country whose installations the terrorists are targeting. But these attacks also damage countries that are dependent on petroleum imports, notably the United States. Over a year ago I wrote an article entitled "Al Qaeda's Oil Weapon" that describes the evolution in al-Qaeda's thinking on the issue. While Osama bin Laden declared Saudi oil wealth off limits as a military target in 1996 because it was a key resource for the caliphate that he wished to establish, his thinking shifted as crippling the U.S. economy became the centerpiece of his strategy for defeating America. In mid-December 2004, an audiotape by bin Laden instructed his followers to focus their operations on oil production, "especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]."

Terrorists -- both those affiliated with al-Qaeda and also those who aren't -- have frequently targeted oil sources. Al-Qaeda has purportedly claimed responsibility for two mid-September suicide bombing attacks against Yemeni installations in the Mareb and Haramut provinces that came just thirty-five minutes apart. In August, the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) targeted a natural gas pipeline in Turkey, the latest in a string of PKK attacks against Turkish natural gas pipelines. In February, two suicide bombers launched an unsuccessful attack against the world's biggest oil processing complex, the Abqaiq complex through which nearly two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's oil flows for processing before export. And that same month, as my associate Kyle Dabruzzi has described, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta launched its "Dark February" campaign, attacking Nigerian oil pipelines, kidnapping nine workers, and sabotaging the oil fields.

But most telling is the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security's Iraq Pipeline Watch, which documents a stunning 374 attacks on Iraqi oil pipelines, installations, and personnel from June 12, 2003 through November 2, 2006. We can add these latest attacks to this already voluminous list -- and should expect that future terrorist attacks will continue to target the oil supply.

Update: Chechen Mujahideen Confirm Killing of Abu Hafs al-Urdani

By Evan Kohlmann

The Chechen mujahideen have issued a terse formal statement today through their media arm, Sawt al-Qoqaz ("Voice of Chechnya"), confirming the killing of notorious Jordanian jihadist Abu Hafs al-Urdani in Dagestan. According to the statement, "on Sunday, a fierce battle occurred between a Russian commando unit and the unit of commander Abu Hafs. As a result, commander Abu Hafs has been martyred along with two other mujahideen. We ask almighty Allah to accept them among his martyrs. We will provide further details later, Allah willing."

See: Alleged Jordanian Zarqawi Associate Reported Killed by Russian Forces in the Caucasus

More Bad News on Lebanon

By David Schenker

Headlines from Lebanon today describe an explosion on the Syria side of the Lebanese-Syrian border. Details remain sketchy, but it appears that an Islamic militant belonging to an Al Qaida affiliate was interdicted while attempting to enter Lebanon. The militant—a Syrian leader of the al-Qaeda-linked Tawhid and Jihad group—reportedly was killed when a grenade he was carrying detonated.

The explosion highlights the increasingly tense environment in Lebanon following the assassination last week of Maronite Cabinet Member Pierre Gemayel. It also points to the growing potential for Sunni-Shiite conflict in Lebanon. Should Hizballah follow through on its threat to demonstrate in an effort to topple the Siniora Government, there is a very real possibility that violence could ensue. Some Lebanese politicians have suggested that the situation may deteriorate to another round of civil war.

In other news, the New York Times reported today that Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah has trained between 1,000 and 2,000 Iraqi Shiite militia members in Lebanon. To paraphrase General Renault from Casablanca, I’m shocked, shocked to find that the Iranians are cooperating with their client Hizballah to undermine stability in Iraq and kill American and coalition forces.

I had an article in National Review online yesterday (11-27) on the situation in Lebanon. It is linked here and appears below.

The Hijab, a weapon for Islamists worldwide

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for this week's Weekly Standard on the veil controversy. The hijab is one of the main weapons used by Islamists whether Shia or Sunni to impose their views of the world.
The whole article can be found here.
Here's an excerpt:

IN 1989, the first hijab incident in Europe took place in Creil, a suburb of Paris, when three high school girls tried to go to class wearing the Islamic headscarf. The students were expelled. Fifteen years later, with the hijab spreading fast among Muslims in France, the government formally banned the wearing of religious symbols in public schools. At the time, most European countries criticized French "intolerance" and deemed the issue a uniquely Gallic problem. But it wasn't. Today most European countries--and a number of Muslim countries--are debating what to do about this increasingly problematic sign of Islamization.

The British were among the most vocal critics of the French ban--back when they were still quite pleased with their own multicultural model. But on October 5, ex-foreign minister Jack Straw revealed that he regularly asked women who came to see him wearing face veils to take them off. Straw pointed out that veils are bad for community relations, and Prime Minister Blair added that the veil is a "mark of separation." This debate coincided with the decision of a British principal to fire an assistant teacher who refused to remove her full-face veil, or niqab, while teaching. Joining the fray was author Salman Rushdie, whose elegant contribution was the statement, "Veils suck." Tensions are rising, fueled by accusations of Islamophobia from some Muslim officials. There is fear that race riots could break out in some British suburbs.

Then there is Germany, where four states have barred public school teachers from wearing the hijab. Some brave female politicians born in Turkey spoke out on the issue in an October 15 interview with Bild am Sonntag. One of them, Ekin Deligoz, a Green party member of parliament, advised fellow Muslim women: "You live here, so take off the headscarf." She added that the headscarf is a symbol of female oppression. Because of her comments, Deligoz has received death threats and is now under police protection.

What is Russia's Real Game (Again, with Viktor Bout?)

By Douglas Farah

What is Russia's real role in the efforts to combat terrorism? While the Bush administration seems to cling to the notion that Russia is an ally, there are several developments that point in the opposite direction.

The first, of course, is the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, where the foul play of the Russian security apparatus, closely tied to Mr. Putin, is the prime suspect. The fact that the murder was committed in London and dismissed out of hand as unimportant by Mr. Putin show both a new boldness and the lack of any pretense of accountability by the Russians.

There is also the arming of Iran and help with the Iranian nuclear program, and the close intelligence ties to Hezbollah.

But there is another, barely noticed development in the United States that should be extremely worrisome. A small sporting goods store in rural Pennsylvania was just busted for selling telescopic rifle scopes, binoculars and optics, which need State Department export authorization, to a Russian company that did not have such a license.

As the my colleauge and co-author Stephen Braun write in the Los Angeles Times, the affidavit for carrying out the search states that the Russian company is "Tactica Ltd., a Moscow firm that was described by investigators as 'a member of the 'Vympel Group,' which is a known identifier for an elite counter-terrorism unit that is controlled by the Russian Federal Security Service [formerly the KGB].'" My full blog is here.

Alleged Jordanian Zarqawi Associate Reported Killed by Russian Forces in the Caucasus

By Evan Kohlmann

Representatives of Russian security forces in the Caucasus are now claiming that they have killed the top foreign mujahideen leader active in the region--Jordanian national and alleged Zarqawi associate Abu Hafs al-Urdani--following a four-hour shoot-out in the Dagestani town of Khasavyurt.

Abu Hafs was born in 1973 in Jordan. After finishing his university studies, Abu Hafs traveled in 1995 to Chechnya to join the growing foreign mujahideen movement led by Saudi national Samir al-Suwailem (a.k.a. Ibn-ul-Khattab). After demonstrating "outstanding military capabilities and strategic thinking", Abu Hafs was appointed to be a training instructor for arriving recruits. When al-Suwailem was killed in March 2002, Abu Hafs advanced forward to become deputy commander under Suwailem's successor in Chechnya, Saudi national Abu al-Walid al-Ghamdi. Later, following the subsequent deaths of al-Ghamdi and fellow Saudi national Abu Omar al-Saif, Abu Hafs became the top commander of the foreign mujahideen in the Caucasus region. The U.S. State Department has publicly named Abu Hafs al-Urdani as a central coordinator of the transnational Al-Qaida network managed by the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Abu Hafs al-Urdani was recently interviewed by a Turkish newspaper, a copy of which was translated and republished by Jihad Unspun and the Kavkaz Center. Although he denied being a member of Al-Qaida, he insisted, "I have gone out for Jihad in the Way of Allah... Would it be fair to those who protect honor, religion and the oppressed Muslim brothers to name members of Al-Qaeda? ....My opinion is that they are group of Muslim Mujahideen, similarly to other groups. They help Islam and the oppressed Muslim and Usama Bin Laden is one of the leaders of Jihad. I ask Allah to help everybody who shows diligence on His Way."

The foreign mujahideen active in Chechnya have yet to formally acknowledge the death of Abu Hafs al-Urdani, but they have not issued any official denials either.

See also:
(January 2006) - Jordanian Zarqawi Ally Resurfaces in Chechnya

Australia Finds US Pressure on Iran Having an Impact

By Jonathan Winer

On November 20, Australia's Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (EFIC), found that "de facto sanctions" were having an impact on investment in Iran and Iranian financial access to international payments systems.

In its latest Market Watch newsletter, EFIC cited its chief economist, Roger Donnelly, as finding that banks and insurers involved in the trade and project finance markets have been taking steps to limit Iranian risk, despite the fact that Iran has been a "lucrative" market.

The newsletter (here) quoted Donnelly as stating that “Cover is still available, but banks and insurers are reportedly cutting their limits and raising prices energetically. This includes letter of credit (LC) confirmation . . political risk insurance and project finance.”

The Australian economist found that Iran's ability to obtain goods and services had likely not yet been hindered, as it could finance its needs through purchases made through cash generated by oil revenues. But the sanctions are creating what he termed "friction," to transactions involving Iran, and impair the ability of foreigners to do business with Iran.

From here, the question is whether the U.S. will secure agreement from other countries to initiate broader limitations on their financial institutions handling of Iranian related transactions, given its proliferation program and utter lack of any form of controls on its funds-at-origin.

India Awakes to Vital Installation Threat as Separatists Continue to Attack Railway

By Animesh Roul

Lately though, India’s security and intelligence establishment woke up to series of novel terrorist threats ranging from a number of possible targets including prominent individuals, vital installations, economic centers, monuments and maritime infrastructures. On November 22, Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil cautiously indicated that one "foreign country" and its “spy agency” have been directing terrorist outfits to perpetrate violent activities in India. However, he refrained himself from uttering Pakistan and ISI. India's atomic power plants and installations in the oil and natural gas sector are most vulnerable to terrorist strike, according to Mr Patil. He also added that defence, communications and Information Technology (IT) sector are equally vulnerable to attacks.

In early November, threats from suspected al-Qaeda terrorists to perpetrate major attacks on airports in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, followed by a hijack alert from FBI initiated widespread security arrangements across all major airports in the country.

Amid this state of high alert and preparedness, India’s northeast rebels attacked passenger train and railway station in less than five days.

Report: Iraq-Based Jihadists Seek to Expand War to North Africa

By Evan Kohlmann

According to reports in Arab media, personnel from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) visited the Moroccan city of Rabat last week to investigate an apparent increase in the number of Moroccan mujahideen volunteers traveling to Iraq in order to join Al-Qaida. CIA officials allegedly scheduled the visit after Moroccan intelligence services presented them with the names of two young men from the northern Moroccan town of Tetouan who had recently executed suicide bomb attacks in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. Reportedly, the men were accompanied on their journey to Iraq by at least seven other would-be jihadist companions from their neighborhood in Tetouan (who remain at large).

The Moroccan government has grave concerns that elements from the nascent Moroccan Tawhid wal-Jihad Movement and the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC) are intent upon using the cauldron in Iraq to mobilize a new armed front for Al-Qaida in North Africa. Local media also reports that Moroccan authorities have recently intercepted a telephone conversation between a militant inside Morocco and another Moroccan national hiding in Syria. The two men discussed a plan to travel to Algeria in order to receive advanced training from veteran GSPC instructors and to establish an official joint Al-Qaida branch covering all of North Africa.

UN Deadlock On Defining Terrorism Persists

By Victor Comras

The UN General Assembly’s Sixth (Legal) Committee again failed this session to break the deadlock preventing progress on a Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Convention and a Definition of Terrorism that would be binding on all countries. The Committee adjourned November 21st after rescheduling further discussions for February, 2007. While the Committee issued its own condemnation of terrorism it failed to make progress on key issues including the definition of terrorism and scope of application of the convention. The deadlock involves differences between Western Countries and the Countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. The OIC countries continue to insist on language that would exempt armed resistance groups involved in so-called ”struggles against colonial domination and foreign occupation.” At the same time they want the convention to specifically cover the activities of regular armed forces, which, because they are covered by other humanitarian and Law of War Conventions, now fall outside the purview of the terrorism convention. (For more details on these issues see my October 25, 2005 Blog).

Why is a terrorism definition so important? First of all it provides common ground for international cooperation in combating terrorism. It lays the foundation for requesting and receiving the mutual assistance and support required under the various UN counter terrorism resolutions and the 12 international counter -terrorism conventions now in place. The absence of a terrorism definition seriously hinders any effort to coordinate an international response to terrorism. Without a common definition countries remain free to interpret their own obligations and define for themselves which groups are terrorists and which are "freedom fighters." Saudi Arabia uses this distinction, for example, to get away with funding Hamas, while Iran and Syria use it to provide funds and support to Hezbollah. But, many other countries have also used it to avoid taking steps to freeze funds or take other civil or criminal action against those individuals or groups which they support. For a further discussion of these issues see my previous blog posted March 14, 2006.

Unified Africa Command Would be Important Step

By Douglas Farah

With Somalia largely in the hands of fundamentalist Islamist groups, the Democratic Republic of Congo reeling in the efforts to hold free and fair elections, the Darfur crisis and its spillover to other countries, and reports of increased activity of both al Qaeda-affiliated Salafist groups and Iranian/Hezbollah affiliated Shi'ite groups, the United States can no longer afford to leave the vast African continent on the bottom rung of international priorities.

After several years of internal debate, the Pentagon is finally recognizing this reality and is moving to fast-track the creation of an "Africa Command," on par with the Southern Command (South America), European Command etc.

As an unfortunate relic of the Cold War, Africa is currently divided among three different commands: European, Central and, for the islands off the east coast, the Pacific Command. This means no single group has responsibility, accumulates historic knowledge or expertise, or looks at the entire package of inter-related issues, from terrorism to organized criminal structures to HIV/AIDs.

Rep. Ed Royce, one of Congress' most knowledgeable Africa hands and prime mover of the restructuring, outlined the difficulties this approach has brought in a Nov. 14 op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor:

"The core function of a combatant command is to plan for military contingencies in the region. Yet Central Command has its hands full fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan-and watching Iran. While the European Command has been increasing its Africa activities, its key focus has followed the eastward expansion of NATO. The Pacific Command, meanwhile, is headquartered more than 10,000 miles from Madagascar. These commands are challenged to closely monitor Africa's troubled states and vast ungoverned areas."
My full blog is here.

al Qaeda wants an "American Madrid"

By Walid Phares

The Washington Times. November 22, 3006

The latest audio by al Qaeda's Iraq commander -- posted 48 hours after the midterm elections -- sends a clear signal to the readers of the jihadi strategic mind: Al Qaeda and its advisers around the world want to provoke an "American Madrid." Portraying the United States as a bleeding bull in disarray, the war room projects its wish to see America's will crippled. The video attempts to do the following:

1. Convince the jihadists that the United States is now defeated in Iraq and beyond. While no reversal of the balance of power has taken place on the ground, the jihadi propaganda machine is linking the shift in domestic politics to a withdrawal from Iraq. It projects the change in Washington as a crumbling of the political process in Baghdad and America's foreign policy. Interestingly, others in the region are also "announcing" the upcoming defeat of America in the war on terror. Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah declared: "The Americans are leaving, and their allies will pay the price."

A war for nothing

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote an article for FrontPage Magazine on the aftermath of the July war. I am making the point that another war is looming because nothing at all has been solved and the powerless UNIFIL is going to leave sooner than later. You can read the whole piece here.
Here's an excerpt:

In the wake of this summer’s bloody, 33-day war between Hezbollah and Israel, most analysts predicted that the region would never be the same. In fact, they asserted that with UN Resolution 1701, Hezbollah would be disarmed and expelled from its redoubt in southern Lebanon. This in turn would give effective control of the region to the Lebanese Army, while a UNIFIL force 15,000-men strong would secure the cease-fire and put an end to the armed conflict.

But the present reality is far from this rosy picture. Indeed, one can make the case that this summer’s hostilities have achieved little and that another war will resume in the near future.

A few prescient facts confirm this grim assessment. First, there is the anti-Israel composition of the Lebanese army. Forty percent of the 60,000-strong Lebanese army is composed of Shiite soldiers, many whom are extremely favorable to Hezbollah. There are also thousands of ex-Syrian troops, who joined the Lebanese Army when Syria “officially” left Lebanon last year, just before the Syrian withdrawal, when thousands of Syrian soldiers were naturalized and incorporated into the ranks of the army.

Response to the Terrorist assassination of Pierre Gemayel

By Walid Phares

"Removing Lahoud and applying Chapter 7"

The assassination of Minister Pierre Gemayel in Beirut is another war crime against the democratically elected Government and Parliament of Lebanon, and another strike in the Terror War waged by the Syrian regime and its allies against the Cedars Revolution and Lebanon's targeted democracy. Hence, the response should be produced by the international community, starting from the United Nations' Security Council to the various countries worldwide concerned with democracy and human rights.

Pierre Amin Gemayel was an elected member of parliament in June 2005 after the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April of the same year. He was one of the leaders of the Cedars Revolution and the minister of Industry in the Seniora Government. Gemayel was an active advocate against the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, for the implemetation of UNSCR 1559 and calling for the disarming of all militias, including Hezbollah. The young leader has been calling for the resignation of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and for the prosecution of the assassins of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. In short, Pierre A. Gemayel was one of the pillars of the resistance to the Syrian and Iranian regimes in Lebanon. He, and his colleagues were calling for the disarming of Hezbollah and the inclusion of moderate Shiite leaders in the political process.

Hezbollah and the Syrian-Iranian axis have considered the last legislative elections in the US and the formation of the Baker Commission as a signal to wage terror campaigns to crumble the political process in Iraq and the cabinet in Lebanon. This week, secretary general of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and his allies were preparing to wage an urban uprising against the Government. But the supporters of the Cedars Revolution said they will take the streets again.

Hence, as we witnessed today in Beirut, the "Terror arm" of the Syro-Iranian camp moved forward to strike the Government instead.

1) Killing three ministers would paralyze the functioning of the cabinet per internal regulations. The assassination of Pierre Gemayel is a step in the campaign to "empty the cabinet" of its members.

2) This assassination aims at intimidating civil society from mobilizing against the pro-Syrian campaign.

In response, the international community should act swiftly in defense of Lebanon's population under the UN Chapter 7, by voting a new resolution to reinforce the UNIFIL in Lebanon and endow it with a deterrence and security mandate to protect civil society from violence as was the case in East Timor and Kosovo.

The Cedars Revolution real and strategic response to the Terror War waged against Lebanon's civil society should be to press for the removal of Emile Lahoud from the Presidency and disband his security operatives.

Adapted from comments to al Hurra TV.

Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

The Danger of Empowering Terrorist States

By Douglas Farah

The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a vocal opponent of Syrian involvement in the country and a leader of the country's Maronite Christian minority, shows the dangers of engaging terrorist states in dialogue as if they were not rational actors, as James Baker and other proponents of the "realist" world view seem to assume.

It seems fairly certain that Syria and its allies in Hezbollah, smarting at the loss of influence in Lebanon and wanting to halt the investigation into the Hariri by whatever means necessary, had a hand in what was correctly labeled a terrorist attack. Hezbollah and its allies in Amal are actively working to destabilize the current government in hopes of extracting more power. Syria and Iran are among the most powerful forces moving the Lebanese drama.

The timing of the attack on Gemayel is interesting. With the Baker Commisson clearly leaning toward recommending a U.S. dialogue with Iran and Syria on Iraq, the two terrorist sponsors are now the new power players in the region. The Bush administration will need them to implement the recommended changes on its Iraq policy, and, since the mid-term elections, is already operating from a position of weakness.

But the price of seriously engaging Syria and Iran will be enormously high. It may be viewed as necessary, but ultimately it will be extremely high. My full blog is here.

The latest murder of Christian Lebanese Minister Gemayel is pushing Lebanon closer to civil war

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, the timing and the murder of anti Syrian Christian Minister Pierre Gemayel should not be any surprise. Indeed for months now, anti Syrian Lebanese personalities have been under heavy physical threat. Some of them have been even shuttling between Paris and Beirut to lessen the odds of them being killed. Even French President Chirac has been pointing out about the imminent dangers and offered in some cases protection for top leaders. Also recently a list has been circulated with the names of the potential victims of Syrian terror. The most prominent politicians including Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Fuad Siniora, Samir Gegea are rounding the top spots on the list.
While there's no doubt that Syria is all over this latest murder as it was in the 2005 targeted assassinations of anti Syrian activists, intellectuals and journalists, the operatives might turn out to be pro Syrian Lebanese, including potentially Hezbollah members. Indeed it's no coincidence that Hezbollah left the Siniora government ten days ago and is preparing massive street demonstrations for Thursday; Jumblatt actually thinks it's going to be part of a coup. Also since the Siniora government just approved the installation of an international tribunal to find out the truth about the murder of Rafik Hariri which will likely prove Syria's central role, Syria wanted to send a clear and loud message. Today's murder of Pierre Gemayel and also today's attempt on the life of anti Syrian Minister Michel Pharaon are the signs of Syria's strategy of escalation to plunging the country in chaos and if possible into a civil war.
Two years ago, Syrian President Bashir Assad warned that if his army was to leave Lebanon it will burn and destroy the country beyond recognition. Since Syria supposedly left Lebanon in 2005 (they really did not Syrian troops joined the Lebanese army and Syrian secret service is still infiltrated in top positions), it had one goal: come back.
Using its proxy Hizbullah is one of the ways for Syria to reach that goal.
What remains still the most striking is that very recently, US, French and British top leaders have warned very clearly Syria not to meddle into Lebanese affairs even stating that Syria was the biggest destabilizing factor. If the West and these countries in particular are serious about protecting Lebanon and facing heads on Syria, it's high time they act now because Syria for the moment could not care less about the West's warnings.

BIOTERRORISM: CONFERENCES AND CONCERNS

By Michael B. Kraft

The threat of terrorists using biological agents to inflict mass casualties received renewed attention at a United Nations conference this week and an Interpol workshop earlier this month.

In Geneva, the sixth review conference on the Convention on Biological Weapons (CBW) opened this week with the U.S. delegation warning that Iran and North Korea may have germ warfare weapons and Syrian is conducting research. Meanwhile U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called for a global forum to discuss with industry as well as governments ways of preventing terrorists from obtaining materials they could for biological weapons attacks.

In Kiev, the Ukraine, Interpol held a workshop earlier this month that emphasized the need for countries to develop stronger legislation to cope with possible misuse of biological agents that could be used in terrorist attacks.

The meetings are being held against the background of growing concern that al Qaeda and other terrorists groups that desire to cause large scale casualties are continuing to pursue efforts to use weapons of mass destruction including bio agents, radioactive materials and chemical agents as well as large conventional explosive devices.

On Iraq: Listen carefully to General Abizaid

By Walid Phares

As the debate in the United States is still raging on the Iraq War – and as many believe that the last legislative elections were a message from the American public to change the course in that conflict – the question remains, how.
American politicians and their academic and activist advisors are rushing in all directions to search for that magic answer with most of the debaters parroting basically two main theses advanced by very few authors. One militant doctrine – connecting the radical left and the isolationist right, to (ironically) the Jihadists around the world – calls for immediate withdrawal from Iraq, let alone from the War on Terror. The radical ideologues do not discuss a rational policy in the region they essentially want no U.S. policy at all. So, we'll discount their position.

Comments on Iran al Qaeda potential connection

By Walid Phares

In three interviews on MSNBC today, I have discussed the potential connection between al Qaeda and the Iranian regime. The analysis was prompted by articles in the British press claiming that Ahmedinijad has instructed his services to develop an influence inside al Qaeda through the latter's members present in Iran since 2001, including Bin Laden's sons and Sayf al Adl, one of its military commanders. Also, a comment about Indonesia's Islamist protests against President Bush's visit. Watch at http://www.terrorfreeoil.org/videos/WP111906.php

The Thai Coup Two Months On: Insurgent Violence in South Shows No Signs of Ebbing

By Zachary Abuza

Sunday, 19 November 2006, is the two-month anniversary of the Thai coup. Though the coup was executed for many different reasons, the Thaksin administration’s mishandling of the southern insurgency that had already claimed some 1,700 lives, was a major factor. The insurgency was spiraling out of control and the six bombings over a 30-minute period in Hat Yai, a major commercial center, concerned many that the coup was bleeding north of the three Muslim-majority provinces.

The prospects of the situation improving seemed much brighter with the coup. Coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin promised, consistency in personnel and policies, improved inter-agency coordination and intelligence sharing, ending the culture of impunity of security personnel, a willingness to implement some of the findings of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC), and a desire to improve diplomatic relations with Malaysia. There was also an acknowledgement by the government of the insurgent’s Islamist agenda and demands.

The government of caretaker Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont deserves credit for implementing a swath of new polices to improve relations with the Muslim community: These include the restoration of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Command (SBPAC) & CPM-43, the dropping of charges against some 58 Tak Bai protestors, a renewed pledge to solve the disappearance of Muslim human rights activist Somchai, which the government now labels “murder,” the abolition of blacklists, and a willingness to implement sharia law. It also included a public apology to the Muslim community for the previous government’s policies:

The military leaders also announced that they were holding secret talks with the “insurgents.” The government announced that the two sides had reached a “Joint Peace and Development Plan for South Thailand,” in which the “insurgents” dropped demand for an independent Islamic state. Yet the “five core insurgents” representing Bersatu, PULO, Barisan Revolusi Nasional Kongres (BRN-K), the Pattani Islamic Liberation Front, and the Muslim Mujahideen Movement of Pattani, have no operational control over the insurgency. The government demanded that the insurgents implement a one month cease fire as a show of good will and proof of command and control, later shortened to two weeks.

Despite these overtures, the violence has continued unabated. In the 60-day period after the coup there were almost 200 violent incidences, and the rate of killing is just under the pre-coup 2006 average of 1.7 people/day. In the two-month period, 91 people were killed, including 5 police and 11 soldiers, and 68 civilians and 232 were wounded, including 52 soldiers and police officers and six monks. There have been 38 bombings and 3 attempted bombings, and 19 arson attacks that destroyed at least 11 schools.

The two groups most involved in the violence, the GMIP and BRN-C have not signed up. The Thai government has searched for ways to contact their leaders who remain at large. They see little reason to negotiate, as they have suffered precious little on the battlefield. There have been few arrests and they are able to attack at will. Indeed, one should anticipate a surge of violence against fellow Muslims in the coming weeks as the insurgent attempt to scuttle the talks, discredit those who are trying to negotiate with the government, and impose their writ on the population.

Both US and EU Want to Improve Anti-Terrorism Information and Investigation Cooperation

By Victor Comras

I have often written criticizing shortcomings that have hampered close US- EU information sharing and cooperation related to the investigation of terrorism and terrorism financing. So it’s a real pleasure to write now on steps recently taken by both sides of the Atlantic to try and improve this situation. Last week the EU and US agreed to establish a new high level “contact group” which will focus on overcoming current information sharing and judicial cooperation impediments. A new agreement was also signed during meetings in Washington November 6th between the US Justice Department and European counterparts. The agreement engages both the Justice Department and Eurojust to “to foster the exchange of information between law- enforcement communities in the US and the EU and strengthen co-operative efforts to prevent and prosecute organised crime, human trafficking, cybercrime and terrorism.” .

The agreement establishes the position of U.S. Liaison Prosecutor to Eurojust. The Liaison Prosecutor will be based at Eurojust headquarters in The Hague, Netherlands and will facilitate law enforcement cooperation between the U.S. and the E.U. on a day-to-day basis. Eurojust is the EU group charged with improving cooperation between prosecutors in the EU countries and promoting coordination of transnational investigation and prosecution measures. The agreement also contains specific language concerning the protection of personal information and individual privacy for both citizens of the U.S. and the E.U.

According to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales the new arrangement "will allow co-operation between United States’ judiciary and their EU member states’ counterparts, and this will increase our capacity to fight against international crime.” EU Commission Vice-President Franco Frattini also praised the new arrangement. "We decided to create a high-level contact group, not for bureaucratic purposes but to see how our common values and common principles can be translated into common proposals," he said at a joint press conference with Attorney General Gonzales.

Personal data protection concerns has been one of Europe’s biggest hang-ups when it comes to sharing information with the United States. They have long expressed concerns that data provided to US authorities might be leaked or used for un-intended purposes. These concerns were evident in the measures adopted by the EU Parliament and Court which, earlier this year, overturned arrangements under which EU passenger data was provided to US authorities. The new arrangements contain additional protections to ensure that such information is restricted to screening passengers traveling to the United States. Referring to these concerns, Finnish Minister of Justice, Ms Leena Luhtanen, who also attended the meetings, expressed her hope that “we can find the right balance between ensuring security and law enforcement on the one hand and protecting the fundamental rights and freedoms on the other hand.”

For its part, the United States has begun to relax a number of its own restraints on intelligence and other information sharing with select European countries. The initial breakthroughs occurred with the establishment and expansion of new intelligence links during the past year. Just how much of this new cooperation will be reflected when it comes to investigative and judicial assistance arrangements waits to be seen. But, bravo, on a step in the right direction.

Better Sharing with State and Local Officials

By Michael B. Kraft

An important step toward improving the sharing of terrorism-related information with state and local law enforcement officials is underway with the development of a new framework to help get around existing roadblocks.

The federal government proposals, as initially reported by the Washington Post today, establishes a threat assessment group that would speed the distribution of potentially useful information and streamline the numerous classification categories for sensitive information.

Questions remain though whether the new structure will be enough to utilize the full potential of the police and other local officials who are on the ground and often the best positioned to spot suspicious behavior that could lead to terrorist related-activities. With the growing awareness that the international terrorism threat is morphing into localized groups without necessarily having overseas links the role of local police can be even more important in detecting and deterring terrorist activities.

Nexus of Afghan and Iraqi Jihadists Deepens, Posing Serious Danger

By Douglas Farah

Al Qaeda and related groups are increasingly able to coordinate forces and training among groups fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, forming a dangerous and growing nexus on two fronts.

While the al Qaeda contingent in Iraq is not dominant in Iraq's Sunni insurgency, its combatants are gaining valuable experience there and helping breathe new life into the Islamist/jihadist forces in Afghanistan that is now spreading and gaining strength.

For some time now many of us have written about the evidence of transmission of knowledge and tactics from one theater of operation to the other, with groups in each area learning and improving on tactics originated with the other.

This use of trained networks with the facility of movement that these groups have poses a long-term threat, not only in Iraq and Afghanistan, but in the countries of origin of the combatants.

One can trace the Arab networks that began in Afghanistan to Bosnia, then on to Sudan, Somalia, back to Afghanistan and elsewhere. These are made of cadres of trusted individuals who know each other, have access to different valuable resources and skills who can reach each other. My full blog is here.

Clarifying the Status of Arab Bank in the U.S.

By Jonathan Winer

Yes, Arab Bank, despite the statement of its principal regulator on February 8, 2005 that it would withdraw from the U.S. market, is still doing business in the U.S., as I have been reminded by its public affairs spokesman. The spokesman contacted me following my last posting to the CT blog regarding Iranian-related money laundering risk, in which I mentioned Arab Bank in passing as an example of an institution that experienced significant consequences for having failed to implement anti-money laundering policies and procedures sufficient to detect illicit transactions. At the spokesman’s urging, I provide this to clarify and expand on the single sentence in my previous post regarding Arab Bank.

As CT Blog readers may recollect, in 2005, as a result of a consent order entered into with U.S. federal regulators, Arab Bank was required to close its branch in the U.S., to cease participating in wire transfers in the U.S., to end all correspondent banking relationships, and to pay $24 million in penalties, one of the largest money laundering-related sanctions applied to a financial institution in U.S. history. The consent order stripped Arab Bank of its direct participation in the U.S. payments system, although it left it with an agency office. At the time, the Arab Bank's regulator, the Central Bank of Jordan, told the Associated Press that Arab Bank would gradually close its New York operation and withdraw from the U.S. market.

What happened next? According to the Arab Bank spokesman, Arab Bank has not withdrawn from the U.S. market, and its business in the U.S. today has the same focus as it did prior to the enforcement action. As stated by the spokesman, the Arab Bank’s New York office “still provides corporate finance services which was a primary focus of its business before the consent order.”

A more extended discussion of these issues, and information available to the public regarding the Arab Bank and information pertaining to its acting as a conduit for terrorist funds, is provided below.

When the coming Congress prepares to exercise oversight hearings on terrorism and terrorist finance issues, it will be interesting to see whether Congress views this result to constitute an appropriate resolution of the compliance failures described by the regulators in the consent orders.

Disclosure Note: The author has previously been engaged as an expert witness in connection with a plaintiff’s case brought against the Arab Bank, on the issue of whether foreign bank secrecy laws justify the withholding of foreign bank record information alleged to pertain to terrorist finance activities. His opinion was that they do not.

Somalia and Lebanon

By Aaron Mannes

According to a leaked UN Report to the Security Council the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis is making major inroads into Somalia and establishing an alliance with the Islamic Courts Union. The most sensational detail reported is that over 700 Somali militiamen joined Hezbollah in the fighting in Lebanon. This is unlikely. There were no Israeli reports of encounters with Somalis in the fighting. Nor were there reports from Israeli military morgues of Somali casualties. (Israeli morgues track this information meticulously, both because identifying enemy casualties can provide valuable insight into the organization's hierarchy and in order to comply with international norms that require respect for the corpses of those killed in battle.)

However, Tehran et al are providing support for the Islamic Courts Union and that is worrisome. Besides the possibility of access to uranium deposits in Somalia, influence in Somalia gives Iran a foothold on the strategic Horn of Africa. This, combined with Iran's dominant position on the Staits of Hormuz, gives Iran leverage over two crucial shipping channels. Somalia is already a haven for piracy, and with professional help, this piracy could become a major international problem.

Yemen, which has a strong Islamist presence and almost certainly does not want a radical Islamist state so close, is backing the weak Transitional Federal Government. Yemen also has a restive Shiite minority that has reportedly received Iranian support.

A final note - the Somali Muslims are Sunni. Iran is Shiite. While in Iraq Sunnis and Shiite have turned on each other in bloody sectarian violence this should not lead to simplistic conclusions that Sunni and Shia radicals cannot collaborate. Hezbollah and Iran supported Sunni Islamists across North Africa, in the Palestinian terroritories, as well as al-Qaeda.

In general, where large communities of Sunni and Shia live nearby, such as Iraq and Pakistan, sectarian violence is highly probable. But predominantly Sunni areas with very small Shia populations may be open to Shia influence. In Sunni Egypt, for example, crowds cheered for Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad.

More on Chicago Hamas Trial

By Steven Emerson

The trial of Chicago area resident Muhammad Salah and northern Virginian Abdelhaleem al-Ashqar, continued with direct examination of FBI Special Agent Jill Pettorelli. Pettorelli was asked to read what appears to be internal Hamas documents. The documents were photographed by the FBI during a search of defendant Ashqar’s home in Oxford, Mississippi on December 26, 1993.

One document, entitled Political Strategic Feature of the Hamas, dated March 2, 1992, discussed aspects of the Hamas response to the Madrid Conference in 1991. One article outlined the need to expose “the danger of peace movements and of making peace with the enemy” and the need to “cement relations with the Lebanese and Palestinian Hizballah.” Drafts of working papers on relations between Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) were also submitted into evidence.

Another document was a chart, originally in Arabic, containing the headers: Goal, Means of Implementation, Time, Execution Front, and Follow-up Front. Most of the items listed under Goals pertained to communications, including the opening of PO Boxes abroad and purchasing fax machines to be used for communication between Hamas leaders in Gaza and the United States. Defendant Ashqar was listed under Follow-up Front and Execution Front on these tasks respectively. Another section of this chart listed under Goal, “send money from abroad to the internal offices.” Ashqar was listed as the Follow-up Front for this task.

We Need A Real Fence to Protect Our Borders From Terrorists

By Michael Cutler

The ink has barely dried on the bill that was to create a fence along 700 miles of the border between the United States and Mexico. Already the incoming Congressional leadership is apparently discussing the possibility of not constructing that fence that would impede the flow of potential terrorists across the land border that is often crossed by drug traffickers and illegal aliens. Rep. Bennie Thompson, currently ranking member on the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, is seen as the probable new chairman of that critical committee, and this article claims to represent Representative Thompson's position on the fence.

He is quoted as saying that perhaps we need to construct a "virtual fence" along the border with Mexico. I have also heard a number of leaders of the incoming Congress claim that they want to make the implementation of the recommendations of the 9-11 Commission their highest priority. Simply stated, you cannot have it both ways. A virtual fence will stop virtually no terrorists or criminals! The Border Patrol is so understaffed and jail space is still not adequate, so even if sensor sound an alert and cameras record the images of illegal aliens running across the border, these devices cannot stop the illegal aliens and smugglers who are violating our nation's sovereign borders. Imagine if you lived in a town that had a shortage of fire engines, police cars and ambulances but spent their limited funds on putting in new call boxes for emergency services. You could go to the call box, pull the alarm and tell the operator who answered what the emergency was, only to be told that they would try to respond to the emergency within a couple of hours! You would think that the members of the local government who squandered precious funds on call boxes rather than hire enough firemen, police officers or emergency medical technicians and provide them with the vehicles and other essential equipment had lost their minds! That is what the use of sensors along the border amounts to when you do not have the required personnel and other resources to effectively deal with the alerts the sensors would be generating. The most cost-effective way of blocking the flow of illegal traffic is a fence that is patrolled and augmented by sensors. This is not an either or proposition, not with our nation's security and the lives of our citizens handing in the balance.

The bottom line, as articulated by the 9-11 Commission, is that in order for the terrorists to attack our nation, they first needed to be able to enter our nation. The first priority is to prevent that illegal entry in the first place, to prevent terrorists, criminals, gang members, drug traffickers and others who would do us harm from gaining access to our country. This is a basic, yet critical job that must be done effectively. That is why there are members of the United States Border Patrol working in Iraq to help secure the Iraqi borders.

Saudi Arabian Prison Escapees Reported Killed in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Less than one week ago, reports began to filter in from Al-Qaida supporters claiming that two wanted Saudi Arabian terror suspects -- Abdelaziz al-Massud and Abdelaziz al-Falaj -- had been killed in clashes with security forces in neighboring Iraq. Though the Saudis have thus far been unable to confirm these reports, a video posted today on the Internet and marked with the logo of Iraq's Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC) appears to do just that. The recording--which was not officially released by the MSC through its usual channels--features close-up footage of the corpses of the two men and pays homage to them as "martyrs."

Al-Massud and al-Falaj were among a group of at least eight terrorist suspects who managed to escape from a Saudi prison in Riyadh last July. Al-Massud had already attempted to travel to Iraq on at least one prior occasion in 2006 in order to join Al-Qaida, but was intercepted before he could cross the border by Saudi security forces. It remains unclear how the two wanted suspects were able to safely make their journey into Iraq despite being known terrorists -- although it raises serious questions about how secure Saudi borders really are.

Click to view still photos from the video c/o Globalterroralert.com

Compelling Wire Taps and Documents Introduced at Chicago Hamas Trial

By Steven Emerson

Testimony in the trial of Chicago resident Muhammad Salah and Abdelhaleem al-Ashqar of Northern Virginia, continued yesterday. FBI Agents gave testimony focusing on items found in Ashqar's home during a search of his Oxford Mississippi residence on December 26, 1993, in addition to wiretaps of his phone and fax lines.

Special Agent Bradley Benabidez testified that the FBI acquired over 2400 hours of audio during the year that they maintained a wiretap. Benabidez further described the December 1993 search of Ashqar’s home where a team of agents from the FBI photographed over 1600 documents.

A few of those documents which were discussed later in the day provide fascinating insight. One titled Policies and Rules of the Association, was a veritable manual on secrecy and concealment. Although the “Association” in question was not identified the phrases written within it, were clear. Instructions were given concerning the destruction of sensitive documents, using a cover for meetings including warning symbols to be implemented during meetings in case an attendee believes he is under surveillance. Attendees at a meeting are also to apply jamming devices during those meetings and unplug phone and fax lines. Concerning “Safety of Travel and Movement,” a cover story must be developed in advance and materials provided to match that cover story, for instance, if one is pretending to be a tourist then tourist books should be in the person’s possession.

Another document, titled Hamas Genesis and Commencement, dated 25 July 1991 was distributed by the political wing of Hamas. In this document Hamas described itself as an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood that “jumped from training and preparation in Palestine to the Jihad phase.” Under the subcategory “Structure of the Hamas Movement,” the leadership of the movement was described as being divided into offices that were located in 30 Arab, Islamic, and European states. According to the document, the Afghan Jihad created an opportunity to train Hamas mujahideen and provide them with operational experience in battle and that Afghan mujahideen who engaged in battle serve as human resources.

Telephone calls between Ashqar and al-Rantisi

The government played and read for the jury several phone calls between Defendant al-Ashqar and high level Hamas leaders including Abd al Aziz Rantisi, a co-founder and leader of Hamas. One shocking phone call between the two men occurred on the day of a Hamas attack on October 24, 1993. In this phone call, played for the jury over speakers with a translation provided to them on an overhead projector, Rantisi informed Ashqar of the attack asking him if he heard about it. When Ashqar replied that he had not, Rantisi told him that two soldiers and been kidnapped and killed. Rantisi then told Ashqar that they had even taken the ID Cards of the two soldiers and both men began laughing. The phone calls and faxes showed Ashqar to be a an important player who was close to many leaders in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Europe.

New Study Sheds Light on Islamist Thought

By Douglas Farah

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point has just released a study of _jihadi_ literature, analyzing who the most influential thinkers in the movement are, based on a year of mining the most influential texts and web writings. The New York Times did a piece on it, but it deserves much broader attention.

The study is a valuable addition, because it includes a summary of many of the most influential _jihadi_ texts, biographies of many of the author, and thinking about the way forward in combatting the theological and theoretical basis for the struggle. It is available online here.

As I have said repeatedly, it is vitally important to read what the enemy says about itself, and what the rationale is for their actions. Far too often I have been in meetings where the architects of the _jihad_ struggle is dismissed as stupid, unsophisticated, and totally unknowable. This study helps make them knowable, and that is the only way to begin to develop a more comprehensive long-term strategy that might actually have some impact. My entire blog is here.

Daily Standard: Warrior of Love

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In September, I wrote an article for The Weekly Standard about Joko Anwar, an Indonesian director who is working on a movie that subtly yet directly criticizes efforts to establish sharia law in that country. Indeed, the Indonesian entertainment industry features a number of fascinating figures who have taken courageous stands against Islamic parties that are pushing for repressive laws that would drastically abridge personal freedoms. I recently had the pleasure of interviewing Indonesian rock star Ahmad Dhani, who now champions a moderate version of Islam through his music. The resulting article, "Warrior of Love," is now posted at The Daily Standard:

Dhani is nothing short of a superstar in his native Indonesia, where he performs to sold-out crowds with his band Dewa 19, and where his music has defined a generation of young Indonesians. Frequently compared to U2 frontman Bono, Dhani and his band's music took a political turn two years ago. Since dictator Suharto was ousted from power in 1998, the country has been engaged in a high-stakes "culture war": Islamic political movements have been able to operate more freely, and extremist groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir and the Islamic Defenders Front have been pushing for the adoption of sharia law. Indonesia has been plagued by major terror attacks in Jakarta and Bali, and by religious and communal violence, such as clashes between Muslims and Christians in early 1999. Dhani and his group, like many urbanites, were alarmed by these developments. They decided to use their music to respond to the hateful ideology that has been seducing so many Indonesian youths.

One of the largest groups responsible for the escalation of violence in 1999 was Laskar Jihad ("Warriors of Jihad"), a violent militia that was led by Jafar Umar Thalib, a veteran of the Afghan jihad who claims to have met Osama bin Laden. When a fight between a Christian bus driver and a Muslim passenger who refused to pay his fare escalated into communal violence on the Maluku Islands in January 1999, Thalib's militia shipped thousands of fighters into the region by boat to "wage jihad." The conflict lasted three years; an estimated 10,000 people perished on the island of Ambon alone, and around half a million Indonesians were driven from their homes. For its central role in the crisis, Laskar Jihad became, according to former Indonesian president Abdurrahman Wahid and American philanthropist C. Holland Taylor, "a symbol and a byword for the suffering inflicted upon that region." So it is fitting that, in turning toward political involvement, Dhani referenced the radical group in the title of Dewa's November 2004 album. It was called Laskar Cinta, Warriors of Love.

The Laskar Cinta album was designed to provide Indonesian youth with a choice between joining the army of jihad and joining Dhani's army of love. It sold hundreds of thousands of copies and became fodder for the Islamic Defenders Front, the most vocal radical group in Indonesia today, which accused Dhani of being an apostate and a Zionist agent. These attacks seem to have backfired, however. Nick Grace, a Washington, D.C.-based Indonesian-language political commentator, said that the attacks on Dhani and a lawsuit that accused him of defaming Islam only served to make him more prominent. Dhani's message was juxtaposed with that of the radical groups on entertainment and celebrity gossip television programs.

This year, Dhani followed his 2004 effort with a new album, Republik Cinta ("Republic of Love"). One of the new songs on the album is called Laskar Cinta. Although some listeners may be confused that the song bears the same name as Dewa's previous album, Dhani told the Indonesian edition of Rolling Stone that this isn't an uncommon practice. He proudly noted that his favorite band, Queen, also did this.

Read the whole article here.

Isolating Iranian Banking Activities

By Jonathan Winer

The recent reports this week of further withdrawal from the Iranian market by London-based HSBC and Swiss-based UBS and Credit Suisse represent the latest consequences of growing U.S. pressure to bring about Iran's financial isolation. But they also reflect the underlying reality that Iran has placed no meaningful money laundering controls on its banking system. As a result, no banking anti-money laundering and terrorist finance compliance officer at any bank doing business with Iran is in any position to make a meaningful assessment that a particular transaction or account is not at high risk of money laundering, terrorist finance, or being related to illegal proliferation.

Over the past several months, U.S. officials have traversed the world alerting foreign governments and foreign banks to the reality that Iran's lack of controls on its financial system means that in practice, it is impossible to know the ultimate ownership or purpose of any Iranian transaction, due to the impractically of carrying out meaningful "know your customer" or other controls on the assets at their origin.

On September 8, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a regulation prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from handling any assets, directly or indirectly, relating to Iran's Bank Saderat, based on evidence of its support for terrorist finance activities relating to Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups. Iran threatened to shift its assets out of U.S. dollar reserves, but the U.S. pressure has continued unabated.

Further pressure to isolate Iran's ability to use the global banking system is inevitable, in light of Iran's comprehensive disregard of international standards governing money laundering controls, and its risk of abuse by Iranian intelligence agencies, Iranian foundations (the "bonyads," heavily used by Iran for proliferation activities over many years), and the reality that substantial Iranian financial assets held abroad are the proceeds of corruption by the country's elites, held as rainy-day funds.

Iran has drafted, but not yet enacted, both an anti-money laundering (“AML”) and terrorist financing law. Enactment has been prevented to date by opposition from Islamicist elements of the government, and likely by the continuing need of the Iranian presidency to avoid accountability for financial transactions involving the country’s major foundations. The Central Bank of Iran (“CBI”) has issued AML regulations that cover such issues as suspicious reporting, but implementation remains doubtful, as Iran lacks an administrative structure for dealing with these crimes. Moreover, there is no evidence to suggest that AML and terrorist finance legal frameworks and enforcement authorities currently in place, such as the CBI regulations, have been implemented in practice. Accordingly, they appear to be formal systems only, existing primarily to demonstrate formal adherence to international standards, rather than as real controls.

AML systems are supposed to require financial institutions not to handle the proceeds of corruption. Yet very substantial portions of Iran's economy have been controlled for the benefit of a small number of elite families. Allegations include corruption relating to the foundations and corruption involving major government procurement, especially involving contracts for purchases of foreign goods and services. Numerous public reports state that Iran continues its efforts to acquire nuclear technologies through front-companies for the government, including the country’s largest foundation, Bonyad Mostazafan and Janbazan Foundation. That foundation and related Iranian entities have also been reported to fund Hezbollah and its terrorist activities.

The benefits to senior political and religious leaders of the lack of oversight of their financial activities under the current system likely continues to be an important factor in the country’s failure to date to create meaningful limits on money laundering taking place in both its formal and informal banking systems. In practice, these systems remain highly vulnerable not only to state-sponsored illicit finance and “gray market” financial transactions, but to abuse by those engaged in weapons trafficking, drug trafficking, commodities smuggling, human trafficking, and cyber crime among other illegal activities.

Added to this situation is the vast scope of Iranian capital flight, which begins with visible Iranian investment in the real estate markets of the UAE, which extends to similar such investments in Venezuela and Ontario, Canada. In none of these cases is it possible for any non-Iranian institutions handling the funds to know with any reasonable certainty the source of the funds -- clean or corrupt. Determining whether the particular transactions are at risk of being related to proliferation or terrorist fundraising is equally impossible, given the reality that none of Iran's financial activities can transparently be sourced back to audited financial reports of the kind applicable to normal bank customers, whether individual, corporate or governmental.

Arab Bank was forced out of the United States after it was found to have handled funds for Hamas, subject to sanctions and class action litigation. Any bank that currently handlies Iranian funds has no way of knowing its level of risk from those funds. If they turn out bad, the defense by the bank that it didn't know the funds were dirty is likely not to go very far in warding off potentially largely liability.

It is the recognition of these kinds of risks, not just U.S. pressure, that is driving the banks that have named publicly to pull out of providing services to Iran.

It will be interesting to see in the weeks to come whether the banks that continue to provide Iran services will find ways to meet their "know your customer" obligations regarding any Iranian transactions, or will have to conclude in the end that separating themselves from Iranian business is essential to limiting risk and lowering the threat of liability to a commercially and reputational reasonable level.

Those still doing business with Iran may also consider whether they need to provision against further enforcement risk, given recurrent allegations in 2006 that the U.S. Department of Justice is continuing to look at the Iran-related activities of several banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, and BNP Paribas. Given U.S. pressure, and the growing understanding of Iran's complete absence of AML controls, the probability of other countries choosing in the near-term to limit risk by limiting Iranian access to their financial system should not be discounted.

Terror Comes Cheap in Jammu and Kashmir

By Animesh Roul

In India’s Jammu and Kashmir State, spreading terror is not an expensive affair for terrorist outfits. Recently, a youth identified as Ghulam Nabi Mir confessed to have lobbed a grenade at a Mosque in Tahab village (Pulwama) on Nov 10 that killed Six people including four minors and nearly 50 others were injured including Sufi leader Abdul Rashid Dawoodi, the prime target of the grenade attack. Dawoodi escaped with splinter injuries.

Ghulam Nabi reportedly admitted to have received Rs 1000 (Aprox. $22) and two grenades from Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) militants.

"I had received Rs 1,000 for carrying out the attack on Maulana Rashid Dawoodi through one Hizb-ul Mujahideen terrorist, Gulzar Ahmad Mir alias Nika, and also received two hand grenades for the purpose," Mir said during the interrogation. Also, there has been uproar about the covert hand of security agencies to divide people of the area on sectarian lines.

What is Sami Afraid Of?

By Brian Hecht, IPT

Convicted Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative Sami al-Arian is appealing a ruling from a federal judge in Tampa compelling him to testify before a Northern Virginia grand jury investigating the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT) (See: Sami Al-Arian: A Valuable Witness?)

Initially, Al-Arian’s lawyers claimed that the terms of his plea bargain stipulate that he does not have to cooperate with any government investigations, but the judge ruled that, since the government granted him immunity, Al-Arian must testify about his connections to IIIT. Today, the Washington Post is reporting that Al-Arian is claiming that testifying before the IIIT grand jury would put his life in danger. Al-Arian has said for months that he has no information which could assist prosecutors in their investigation into IIIT, and that the connections between him and the think tank are over a decade old. Yet now he’s claiming his life is in danger? Perhaps he knows quite a bit more than he’s letting on.

Now it is up to the 11th Circuit to decide whether Sami has to cooperate. If the appellate court rules against Al-Arian, and he continues to refuse to testify, he will likely be held in contempt of court, adding an additional 18 months onto his prison sentence, which would keep him locked up through mid 2009, before his deportation process would begin.

Judy Miller Testifies At Chicago Hamas Trial

By Steven Emerson

The trial in Chicago continues for Muhammad Salah and Abdelhaleem al-Ashqar. The two are charged in a federal racketeering indictment with providing money and fresh recruits to Hamas in its terror campaign against Israel. Yesterday began with the testimony of former New York Times reporter, Judith Miller.

Miller was called to testify to refute claims by the defense that statements given by Salah were made under duress and after torture. Miller testified that she decided to research Salah's situation after reading of his arrest in the media. She flew to Israel and was shown documents alledgedly found on Muhammad Salah at the time of his arrest as well as statements that Salah had supposedly made to Israeli agents. Miller said that she was concerned that Salah's statement may have come as a result of torture and refused to write an article unless she met with Salah in person. The Israelis said that was not possible but offered to let her view the interrogation from a room in the prison complex on a television monitor.

Miller testified that when she saw Salah on the screen he appeared calmed, rested, and relaxed as he was sitting at a table in the room reading a book. Miller heard the conversation between Salah and his interrogators over an audio feed and received real time translations courtesy of a translator provider to her by the Israelis. Several times, the interrogator Nadav left the interrogation room and walked into Miller’s room, which she said was located only a few feet from her, to ask if there was anything that she wanted him to ask. She replied that she wanted Nadav to conduct his interrogation as normal because she did not want to be part of the interrogation by another government of an American citizen. After witnessing the interrogation for two hours, Miller left the prison complex because she felt she had more than enough corroborating evidence that Salah had not been tortured and decided to proceed with her article. Miller stated that Salah was relaxed, at ease, and very conversational with her interrogators. She concluded her direct examination by stating that she wrote the article of her own free will and did not make any sort of deal write an article in exchange for admittance to the highly secret Israeli Security Agency (ISA) Interrogation facility.

What Do Iran's Actions Mean for Islamist Terrorism?

By Douglas Farah

As my colleague Jeffrey Imm points out on the Counterterrorism Blog, there are reports of Iran's attempt to gain influence in the traditional al Qaeda structure. This an interesting development, especially when coupled with another, equally ominous and interesting development: Iran's likely involvement with the Islamic Court Union in Somalia.

This is a stark departure across Sunni-Shi'ite differences, and one that, if true, could portend a serious realignment within the different Islamist camps. Such a cross-pollination is also significant given the recent and ongoing Sunni-Shi'ite massacres, based solely on religion, taking place in Iraq.

A soon-to-be published United Nations panel of experts outlined Iran's contacts in Somalia, including the taking of several hundred Somali fighters to Lebanon to fight with Hezbollah. My full blog is here.

Much Political Bluster, but Few Concrete Solutions on How to Rebuild Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

Yesterday, President Bush met and responded to questions from the newly-formed, bi-partisan Iraq Study Group (chaired by James Baker III). The last year has seen a marked deterioration in the situation inside Iraq and the notion behind this sudden soul searching effort is to devise new and unusual ideas on how to stop the gradual slide into chaos. First off, the fact that Bush and his advisors waited until after the 2006 election season was almost over to "seriously" address the crisis in Iraq does not speak highly as to the nature of their motivations. Moreover, Bush's press commentary after meeting with Baker and other members of the Iraq Study Group yesterday does not inspire any great measure of confidence either. The President told the media, “I was impressed by the questions they asked. They want us to succeed in Iraq, just like I want us to succeed. So we had a really good discussion."

Unfortunately, a "really good discussion" is what should have taken place in April 2003. At this point, Iraq is so terribly plagued by sectarian bloodshed that it is difficult to imagine what concrete solutions can be devised by either the Democrats or Republicans to remedy the immediate crisis and open a reasonable exit door for U.S. military forces. Increasingly, the idea of partitioning Iraq into several homogeneous mini-states has surfaced, but this is hardly a silver bullet -- and could in fact lead to a regional war that draws in all of Iraq's neighbors. Recent crackdowns in the capital Baghdad on vicious Shiite militia groups have largely failed because the Mahdi Army and Badr Corps have effectively occupied the Iraqi Interior Ministry and have taken over the police force. Senior Iraqi Shiite politicians--such as former Interior Minister Bayan Jabr--now stand accused by both Iraqi and American eyewitnesses of, at a minimum, turning a blind eye to the torture and killing of innocent Sunni civilians (for more on this, check out Deborah Davies' most recent Channel 4 UK documentary "The Death Squads"). Even Al-Qaida has managed to dramatically expand its roots and network inside Iraq since this time last year, despite the much vaunted killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi last June.

In short, U.S. leaders need to drop the flowery rhetoric and lipservice and start approaching Iraq with the responsible gravitas that it demands. If Republicans and Democrats want to regain the confidence of the general public--both inside America and in the Middle East--they must start talking on the level, even when the truth hurts. As the old saying goes, it's time to either put up or shut up.

(See also: June 28, 2005 - "Delusion and Disaster in Central Iraq")

Iran forging alliance with Al-Qaeda? (updated)

By Jeffrey Imm

EDITOR'S NOTE, 6:10 pm ET: Reliable sources with ties to international intelligence agencies told us today that the "Daily Telegraph" story upon which this post is based is just plain wrong.

The Daily Telegraph reports today that Iran is seeking to wield influence within Al-Qaeda to help name its number three individual in the Al-Qaeda organization. If accurate, the report states that Ahmadinejad is trying to persuade Al-Qaeda to promote a pro-Iranian activist (Saif Al-Adel) to a senior position within its leadership.

For the past three years, U.S. intelligence officials have said a shadowy group called the "al Quds force"-- the Jerusalem force -- part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard organization, may be sheltering some al Qaeda leaders, including its military commander, Saif Al-Adel, and Saad Bin Laden, son of the al Qaeda leader.

It is now reported that Iran is seeking Saif Al-Adel to fill the number three position of the Al-Qaeda organization. It is also reported that is believed that Osama Bin Laden health problems may be causing Iran's push to have Saif Al-Adel in that role to complement Zawahiri. According to reports from Western intelligence agencies, Iran is training senior Al-Qaeda operatives in Teheran to take over the organisation when bin Laden is no longer leader. For some time, military officials have claimed that Iran is providing Iraqi terrorists with arms.

Background on Saif Al-Adel: "Al-Adel, 46, a former colonel in Egypt's special forces who joined al-Qa'eda after fighting with the Mujahideen against Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s, was named in the FBI's list of 22 most wanted terrorists that was issued after the September 11 attacks. He is also alleged to have been involved in the deaths of 18 US soldiers in Somalia in 1993 and the truck bomb attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. Until 2003, al-Adel acted as bin Laden's security chief and since his arrival in Iran he is understood to have struck up a close personal relationship with several prominent Revolutionary Guards commanders."

MEMRI reports that, in October 2006, Jihadist websites posted top secret Iranian document showing that prior to 9/11 indicated Iran's willingness to further Al-Qaeda's "future plans", where Khamenei "has emphasized that 'the battle against the global arrogance headed by the U.S. and Israel is an integral part of our Islamic government, and constitutes its primary goal". 9/11 Commission members have previously reported to press that there was evidence suggesting that the 9/11 hijackers had previously passed through Iran.

Reports in August 2006 stated that Saad Bin Laden was to support Hezbollah fighting.

UN Finally Gets Around to Listing IIRO Indonesia

By Victor Comras

On August 3rd, 2006 the US Treasury Department moved to designate the Philippine and Indonesia Branches of the International Islamic Relief Organizations as global terrorist entities (SDGTs). The Treasury Department also designated the Saudi based Executive Director of the Eastern Province Branch of IIRO, Abd Al Hamid Sulaiman Al-Mujil. According to the Treasury Department Al-Mujil “used his position to bankroll the al Qaida network in Southeast Asia. Al-Mujil has a long record of supporting Islamic militant groups, and he has maintained a cell of regular financial donors in the Middle East who support extremist causes," Many experts had felt that this move was long overdue. The UN Al Qaeda Monitoring Group, back in December 2003, had reported its own concerns that the IIRO was funding terrorist entities in Southeast Asia. (see my earlier blog).

As is customary, the US moved quickly to notify the international community of its designation and requested that the UN’s Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee act quickly also to add both entities to its Consolidated List of Designated Entities. Unlike the previous UN designation of al Haramain, the Saudi Government did not join with this request. The UN action places a uniform international obligation on all countries to freeze the assets and cut off the flow of money to listed individuals and organizations. The UN committee did act quickly to list Al-Mujil and the IIRO Philippines (which was done on August 4, 2006). But, action was delayed re the Indonesia IIRO branch until just a few days ago, for reasons still unclear to this author. These delays are usually caused by one or more Security Council members putting the designation on hold. The listing was finally agreed and entered on the list on November 9th.

It is not clear whether any action has yet been taken by the Indonesian government to close down the charity. In any event, the long delay has provided IIRO Indonesia the opportunity to hide its assets and reorganize its affairs in order to avoid the real impact of these sanctions. As my colleague, Zachary Abuza, wrote here, on August 3rd, the IIRO maintained a very small footprint in Indonesia, and really worked through the auspices of KOMPAC, a local organization. That group has still not been designated.

These are the first and only branches of the International Islamic Relief Organization to have been listed by the UN for supporting al Qaeda. In presenting the case against IIRO Indonesia, the US provided information indicating that its director had channeled money to two Indonesia-based, previously designated JI-affiliated foundations. The group had also provided assistance with recruitment, transportation, logistics, and safe-havens.

While the Philippine supported the US action, the first reactions out of both Indonesia and Saudi Arabia were that these accusations were “baseless.” The Saudi Gazette and Arab news both highlighted Al-Mujil’s denials. He continues to teach at the King Faisal University in Dammam and there is, as yet, no indication that he has been removed as Director of the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) in the Eastern Province. The Saudi government has regularly maintained that the IIRO enjoys the status of an international “non-governmental, multinational organization” not subject to Saudi control.

Hezbollah's offensive in Lebanon has begun

By Walid Phares

According to sources and contacts – as well as statements made in Lebanon over the past few weeks – all analysis indicates that Hezbollah is on the verge of an all out offensive in Lebanon to crumble the "March 14" Seniora Government and to seize strategic control in the country.

Following are few points deserving attention (a more comprehensive analysis will follow later):

1. As predicted since July 12, (and posted on The Counterterrorism Blog), the aim of Hezbollah's summer war with Israel, was to provoke a "strike-back" at the Lebanese Government and reshape the balance of power in Lebanon to the advantage of the Teheran-Damascus axis. Nasrallah and his allies across the sectarian divide aimed at shifting the issue of disarming Hezbollah and militias (according to UNSCR 1559) to crumbling the government, which is supposed to implement this disarming process.

2. By mid-October, Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies had begun a political counter offensive aiming at "enlarging" the Seniora cabinet, as a way to paralyzing it further from the inside. The political discussions took longer than anticipated by Hezbollah. Hence, a decision was made in Tehran (and subsequently in Damascus) to move forward.

3. The perceived results of the midterm elections in the U.S. were read as positive by Tehran and its allies, in the sense that it froze vigorous reactions by the U.S. against any Iranian-Syrian move in Lebanon via Hezbollah. The feelings in Tehran and Damascus, have been that if in the next weeks and months a "thrust" takes place in Lebanon to the advantage of the pro-Syrian camp, Washington will be in no position to react or counter. Ahmedinijad and Assad believe (or have been advised to believe) that "lobbies" are moving in Washington and Brussels to restrain any strong deterrence by the U.S. against the "axis." The theory is that the Bush Administration is too busy "negotiating" with the new leadership in Congress to "dare" a mass move in the Middle East. The analysis also predicts that strong lobbies within the Democratic Party are now positioned to block any serious response to a change in geopolitics in Lebanon. It is believed that the window of opportunity won't be too long before the Administration and the upcoming Congress "understands" the Tehran-Damascus maneuver and create a unified response. Thus, the expectation is that Hezbollah and its allies were told to achieve their goals before the end of the year, and before the new Congress begin business on the Hill.

Selecting the "Best Books on Terrorism"

By Andrew Cochran

We see lists of "best books on terrorism" often, and of course we're partial to the list of books written by our Contributing Experts (in the left sidebar), many of which are cited in "best terrorism books" lists. One new list of 25 "best books" was sent to us by noted CT scholar Dr. Joshua Sinai of The Analysis Corporation, whose column on Terrorism Books appears regularly in the Washington Times and who also publishes the online book review column “Terrorism Bookshelf” for the Terrorism Research Center. Dr. Sinai's list includes two by our Contributing Experts, Stephen Sloan's "Terrorism: The Present Threat in Context" and Evan Kohlmann's "Al-Qaida's Jihad in Europe: The Afghan-Bosnian Network," as well as one by former Contributing Expert (and current U.S. Treasury Department official) Matthew Levitt, "Hamas: Politics, Charity, and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad." Dr. Sinai's list appears in a special supplement of ForeWord, a trade magazine for booksellers and libraries and is reproduced here with permission (attached Acrobat file) We hope you'll review and select each of our experts' books when you're building your CT library.

Congress to Review Iraq, Afghanistan, & North Korea

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Congress has returned for a post-election session, and several committees will hold terrorism-related hearings this week. The schedule of open hearings is below:

November 14, 2006
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee
Corporate Ownership Identification
Investigations Subcommittee hearing on "Failure to Identify Company Owners impedes Law Enforcement," focusing on the inability of law enforcement to be able to investigate money laundering, tax evasion, terrorist financing and other crimes because the identity of corporate owners are unknown. Location: 342 Dirksen Senate Office Building. 2:30 p.m.

November 15, 2006
Senate Armed Services Committee
Iraq/Afghanistan Military Operations
Full committee hearing on the current situation and U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Witnesses: CIA Director Michael Hayden; Army Gen. John Abizaid, commander of U.S. Central Command; Army Lt. Gen. Michael Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; and David Satterfield, senior adviser to the secretary of State and coordinator for Iraq. Location: 216 Hart Senate Office Building. 2:30 p.m.

House Armed Services Committee
Iraq Update
Full committee hearing on the current situation and military operations in Iraq.
Witnesses: David Satterfield, senior adviser to the Secretary of State and coordinator for Iraq; and Army Gen. John Abizaid, commander of the U.S. Central Command. Location: 2118 Rayburn House Office Building. 2:30 p.m.

House International Relations Committee
North Korea Nuclear Test
Full committee hearing on "North Korea's Nuclear Test: Next Steps."
Witnesses: Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns testifies. Location: 2172 Rayburn House Office Building. 11 a.m.

Fatah, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade Threaten Terror Attacks on America in Apparent Policy Shift

By Evan Kohlmann

In a credible communique posted this morning along with other mujahideen press releases, the Palestinian Fatah faction and its affiliate the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade have signed a joint statement with other Palestinian militants threatening to launch terrorist attacks on America in response to the mistaken killing of 20 Palestinians in Beit Hanoun earlier this week by the Israeli army. According to the statement, "America's support for the [Israeli] aggression prompted us to seriously consider it as a legitimate target for us... The American people are responsible for the consequences of their continued support for Israel." Referring to Americans as "Cowboys", the statement went on to denounce "powerful and merciless American strikes on Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan" and the "fraud" of the United Nations Security Council "which protects and safeguards the security of the Zionists at the expense of the blood of the Palestinians." Finally, the joint statement concluded: "Enough is enough... the Americans only understand the language of blood and broken bones."

This latest statement comes on the heels of a similar threat from the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement HAMAS earlier this week.

Small bomb in Jakarta, unclear whether the work of JI

By Zachary Abuza

A small bomb was detonated in an American chain restaurant in Jakarta today. Only one person was injured, which authorities believed to have been the bomber. It is too early to say whether this was the work of Jemaah Islamiyah.

There are a few things to note. JI leaders seem to have rejected their trademark truck bomb for a number of reasons including, a desire to up the tempo of bombings, operational security, resources, and materials, in favor of small bag bombs a la London and Madrid. These were employed last October in three simultaneous blasts in Bali that killed 22. When the top bomb maker, Dr. Azahari bin Husin, was killed in a shootout in his safehouse last November, police found more than 30 small bombs in various states of construction. In addition to losing Azahari, JI lost their cache of explosives. Raids in Central Javanese safehouses last year netted a few more of the bombs. Earlier this fall a woman was apprehended with some 9 kilograms of high explosives. Clearly JI has not been able to recover from those setbacks. They don’t seem to be able to keep up with their one-year timetable for major attacks

If it was the work of JI, it clearly represents a challenged organization. More likely though, the bombing could be the work of a variety of splinter groups and completely autonomous or self-starting cells that are simply inspired by JI. Anti-American sentiment remains high in Indonesia due to Iraq, the war on terror and US support for Israel’s war in Lebanon.

Bomb Blast in Jakarta

By Kenneth Conboy

A small bomb exploded on a tabletop in an A&W restaurant in East Jakarta at 1145 local time. Although details are still sketchy, it appears that the bomber, 36 year old Muhammad Nur, was the only casualty. Though injured, Nur survived the blast and is now in police custody. He reportedly had Quranic verses in his shirt pocket, though it is still not known if he intended to be a suicide bomber, or if he wanted to flee the scene but the bomb went off prematurely. A second suspect escaped and is still on the run.

The blast is curious for several reasons:

* The device was apparently far smaller than all recent Jemaah Islamiyah bombs, which may indicate it was not connected to the same JI figures who coordinated the earlier incidents.
* If the bomber did not intend to commit suicide, it would again be different from recent JI attacks.
* The targeted restaurant was in a low-class mall frequently virtually entirely by Indonesian Muslims. Again, this would set the attack apart from previous JI bombings that targeted Western nationals and/or ethnic Chinese Indonesians.

Even if not connected to JI, the police are operating under the assumption that the bombing may be linked to the upcoming 20 November visit to Indonesia by President Bush. Over the past week, numerous Muslim radicals have either taken to the streets or vowed to stage protests when Bush arrives.

Al-Muhajir's audiotape: an important salad bowl

By Walid Phares

On 10 November, the website of the Islamic Renewal Organization, a Saudi dissident group headed by Muhammad al-Mas'ari and based in the United Kingdom, posted several links to a new audio message issued by Shaykh Abu-Hamzah al-Muhajir, AKA Abu-Ayyub al-Masri, leader of Al-Qa'ida Organizations in Iraq. I obtained the original tape from the Laura Mansfield research group, and I do thank her for that.

After listening carefully to the tape, I realized that it is not just about one particular message as it was projected in the international media. Yes indeed, the most striking part was al Muhajir's statements about the results of the midterms elections in the US, and his direct threat against the White House. Without any doubt, to Americans today, this tape falls in the midst of their ongoing political transformations. And on that level, I will (later) provide a special reading of these statements. But the audiotape message included a revealing number of other important Jihadi issues, a real salad bowl. Here are the most salient ones:

New Iraq Al-Qaeda Audio - Aim To Create Islamic Iraq

By Jeffrey Imm

Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (aka Abu Ayyub al-Masri), released an audio message that said Al Qaeda has 12,000 fighters at the ready in Iraq who "had vowed to die for God's sake" - with 10,000 more waiting in the wings. His audio message was titled "There is No Rule, but that of Allah".

Abu Hamza al-Muhajir stated: "I tell the commander of the faithful, the honorable Sheikh Abu Omar al-Baghdadi: I have put 12,000 Al-Qaeda fighters at the disposal of the Islamic state of Iraq". Terror leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir says the first phase of the jihad is now over and the next phase will be to build Iraq as an Islamic nation: "We announce today the end of a phase of the jihad (holy war) and the start of a new one... to usher in the project of an Islamic caliphate and restore Islam's glory".

Abu Hamza al-Muhajir also stated: "The victory day has come faster than we expected," he says. "Here is the Islamic nation in Iraq victorious against the tyrant. The enemy is incapable of fighting on and has no choice but to run away."

He called on other insurgent groups to join the Al Qaeda efforts: "We have to be unified by the sword, even though disagreements exist between us"... "Go where God has ordered you to go and know that we are with you. We are your soldiers and your men".

Abu Hamza al-Muhajir also made threats against the White House and Jerusalem. He stated "We will not rest from our Jihad until we are under the olive trees of Rumieh and we have destroyed the dirty black house -- which is called the White House". Rumieh appears to be a reference to the Mount of Olive in Jerusalem.

Terror leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir also sought to kill more US soldiers: "We haven't had enough of your blood yet", and he presented his view on the US mid-term elections: "The American people have put their feet on the right path by ... realizing their president's betrayal in supporting Israel," the terror leader said. "So they voted for something reasonable in the last elections."

Major Sources:

New Audio Message from Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, Emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq, "There is No Rule, but that of Allah" - SITE Institute

Al-Qaida in Iraq claims it's winning war - Associated Press

Purported Iraq al Qaeda tape to U.S.: Jihad not over - CNN

Al-Qaeda aims to create an Islamic Iraq - Mideast Online

New Alleged Al Qaeda Tape - CBS

Britain's Growing Islamist Problem

By Douglas Farah

The stunning public statement by Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller that Britain's domestic intelligence agency MI5 is tracking some 200 Islamist cells with some 1,600 members who "actively engaged in plotting or facilitating terrorist acts here and overseas." shows just how deeply the Islamist groups have burrowed into their host society.

"Today we see the use of homemade improvised explosive devices, but I suggest tomorrow's threat will include the use of chemicals, bacteriological agents, radioactive materials and even nuclear technology," Manningham-Buller said.

The scope and size of the publicly-acknowledged investigations are a tacit admission that the Blair government's attempts at dialogue with the Muslim community, largely through Muslim Brotherhood-dominated groups that have sister organizations in the United States, has not stemmed the movement toward radicalism. My full blog is here.

50 Days After the Coup Thai Violence Continues Unabated

By Zachary Abuza

Despite optimism that the 19 September coup in Thailand would lead to a quick resolution of the southern insurgency, violence has continued unabated. The Council for National Security, as the junta calls itself, and the government of caretaker prime minister Surayud Chulanont have made many important gestured to the Muslim community, including public apologies for the Thaksin government’s policies, the dropping of charges against 58 unarmed protestors, the ending of blacklists, and the offer of some sharia law. Most importantly they were hailed for offering to begin talks with the insurgents. I reacted to these talks in this blog before and in the Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor with a high degree of skepticism. The continued violence on the ground is as much empirical evidence as one needs to see that the people that the Thai government is talking with (the exiled leaders of last generation insurgents PULO and Bersatu) have no effective control over the two groups most responsible for the violence, the Narisan Revolusi Nasional Coordinate (BRN-C) and the Gerakan Mujihidin Islami Pattani (GMIP). Moreover, with few arrests and the ability to attack at will, it is hard to see what incentive they have to negotiate.

Yesterday, insurgents executed near-simultaneous bomb attacks on eight car and motorcycle showrooms in downtown Yala, wounding 13 people. In June rebels detonated 22 bombs simultaneously in all of the commercial banks in Yala.

In the 50 days since the coup, 70 people have been killed, including 3 police and 9 soldiers, and 126 people have been wounded (including 23 police and 18 soldiers). There have been 42 bombings (with at least 3 bombs defused) and 17 arson attacks that have destroyed at least 10 schools.

As Golda Meir famously noted, “You cannot shake hands with a clenched fist.”

Marriage Fraud Perpetrated by Terrorists and Criminals

By Michael Cutler

A couple of weeks ago, I was interviewed by a reporter from the Jamaican Gleaner, a prominent newspaper that is published in the Jamaica, West Indies for an article about the issue of marriage fraud. They interviewed me, as well Steve Camarota, the director of research and an analyst at the Center for Immigration Studies, the Washington-based think tank with which I have been associated for several years.

This issue is of great concern to me, having served as an adjudications officer who conducted interviews to determine if aliens should be granted resident alien status as a result of being married to United States citizens or resident aliens. I was assigned to this position temporarily for approximately one year in the mid 1970's, just before I became a special agent of the former INS. Additionally, I spent several years, as a special agent, assigned to the Frauds Unit of the Investigations Branch of the New York office of the former INS where among the areas of concern that I became involved with was the issue of marriage fraud and the organizations that facilitated fraud marriages and other fraud schemes employed by aliens who wanted to circumvent the immigration laws.

Today's USA Today reported on the guilty plea a marriage arranger entered in federal court for having arranged numerous fraud marriages between United States citizens and citizens of Ghana. The article further notes that recently ICE has focused on investigating and apprehending additional individuals who are involved in marriage fraud schemes to enable aliens to circumvent the immigration laws. As is noted in the article, this sort of fraud has serious national security implications. Janice Kephart, former counsel to the 9-11 Commission, conducted a study of fraud and the terrorists who have attacked our nation on behalf of the Center for Immigration Studies. She found a number of the terrorists who have operated in the United States utilized marriage fraud as one of the mechanisms by which they were able to embed themselves in our country, or 'hide in plain sight." This should make it clear that immigration benefit fraud represents a critical area of vulnerability to the immigration system and, consequently national security.

Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

Over the past month, the anniversaries of several Jemaah Islamiyah bombings--most notably the October 2002 Bali bombings--passed without incident. The Indonesian National Police, however, are under constant pressure to catch the top three JI fugitives thought to still be on Java. This includes JI military czar Zulkarnaen, spiritual leader Abu Dujana, and Malaysian national Noordin Top. This last figure, who is thought to have been behind the past three annual bombing incidents, has proven especially elusive.

Perhaps indicating a break in the case, the police announced earlier this week that they were scouring the jungles in and around Jombang district, East Java province, after locals reported fleeting encounters with three men speaking in Malaysian accents. They have also been reports of water and food missing from Jombang residences. This has led to speculation that associates of Top might be seeking sanctuary in the district.

In other news, state prosecutors this week announced that one of three militants charged with beheading three Christian schoolgirls last December in Central Sulawesi province carried out the attack as an "Idul Fitri gift" for all Muslims. He said that, while training with the MILF in Mindanao, they would often kills soldiers to commemorate Idul Fitri. Instead of soldiers, he proposed killing Christians, and eventually selected the three girls as they were walking to school on an isolated jungle track.

The militant, Hasannudin, alias Hasan, could get the death penalty if found guilty. Central Sulawesi's Poso district is still tense after three Christian militants were executed by a firing squad two months ago, and large protests were staged last week in Poso after several dozen Muslim militants were arrested in a police sweep.

Hamas' Call for Attacks on Americans is New Threat

By Douglas Farah

In the wake of reports that an Israeli tank strike killed 18 people in the Gaza Strip, Hamas' military wing issued a call for Muslims around the world to attack American targets.

This is dangerous for several reasons. One is that Hamas has a broad financial infrastructure inside the United States and enjoys some support among parts of the U.S. Islamic community, so there would be little need infiltrate operators. There could be people already here willing to carry out such attacks.

A second reason is that Hamas has traditionally not advocated attacks on the United States. But this call by the Hamas military wing is unambiguous: "America is offering political, financial and logistic cover for the Zionist occupation crimes, and it is responsible for the Beit Hanoun massacre. Therefore, the people and the nation all over the globe are required to teach the American enemy tough lessons," Hamas' military wing said in a statement sent to The Associated Press.

This would add another dimension for defending American targets here and abroad. My full blog is here.

Road to Terror Continues to Lead to UK

By Jeffrey Imm

On August 16, I wrote about how UK's challenges, with over a thousand Islamist Extremist terror suspects and thousands of sympathesizers in its midst, has led to continuing threats to the USA such as the planned August 16 British Transatlantic Airline Terror Plot, which the FBI has since confirmed was to crash airliners into USA cities (as UK relaxed security restrictions banning liquids on airlines). The UK press has reported of skepticism among many Britons of such British terror plots against US cities, with some who viewed the terror plot as "propaganda" and "make-believe".

The case of British jihadist Dhiren Barot (aka Esa al-Hindi) illustrates the depth of the British jihadist threat yet again. Through the trial of this convicted terrorist sentenced today to life imprisonment, we now know more about the planned terrorist attacks on DC, Newark, and NYC by British jihadist Dhiren Barot, along with other British jihadists who he "recruited" to attack USA sites. Barot has seven co-defendents who will be going to trial in April 2007. An MI5 report has stated that it is believed that there are 8,000 Al-Qaeda sympathesizers in the UK, and there are 1,200 potential Jihadists currently being tracked by the UK authorities. Yet Jihadists in UK, such as Mizanur Rahman and Abubaker Deghayes, continue to feel free to openly call for terror attacks.

Barot and his British jihadists prepared a detailed plan on how to destroy the four proposed U.S. targets: the New York Stock Exchange and Citigroup headquarters in Manhattan; the Prudential building in Newark, N.J.; and the International Monetary Fund in Washington. In addition, Barot's jihadists planned attacks on Jewish organizations and synagogues.

Barot made terror attack reconnaisance films of the NY Stock Exchange in April 2001, and also filmed the World Trade Center in April 2001, mimicking the sound of an explosion. The plot on the Citigroup building in NYC was written in July 2001, and the plot on the Prudential building in Newark was written on September 2, 2001; both were then updated in 2003. Barot filmed Jewish targets on April 7/8, 2001. Barot also took two helicopter flights over Manhattan to scout out terror attack opportunities, and was investigating airplanes for possible attacks as well. He updated the terror plots after the 9/11 attacks, and edited his terror plot films to address new US security measures.

The British jihadists' plans for USA attacks included extensive detail on bomb-making, terror attack strategies, guard uniforms, exits, security systems, cameras, structural weakness, traffic flows, as well as details on dirty bombs. Barot worked with British nationals Nadeem Tarmohamed and Qaisar Shaffi in such terror plots. Barot is also wanted in the U.S. and Yemen. The US Department of Justice has previously stated that they plan to ask for the extradition of Barot, Tarmohamed, and Shaffi.

Aims and Methods of Europe's Muslim Brotherhood

By Lorenzo Vidino

Contributors to this blog (most recently Doug Farah) have often debated the nature, tactics and aims of the Muslim Brotherhood. The debate is particularly relevant considering the ambiguous, almost schizophrenic, policies of the US government towards the Brotherhood. I have a long piece in the latest issue of the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, analyzing the history, methods and aims of the Muslim Brotherhood in Europe:

In 1990 Yusuf al-Qaradawi, an influential Sunni scholar and the unofficial theological leader of the international Muslim Brotherhood (al Ikhwan al Muslimoun), published a book called Priorities of the Islamic Movement in the Coming Phase. This 186-page treatise can be considered the most recent manifesto of the Islamist revivalist movement. As Qaradawi explains in the introduction, the “Islamic Movement” is meant to be the “organized, collective work, undertaken by the people, to restore Islam to the leadership of society” and to reinstate “the Islamic caliphate system to the leadership anew as required by sharia.”

Having affirmed the necessity of the Islamist movement in the West, Qaradawi proceeds to present a plan of operation. The Egyptian-born scholar openly calls for the creation of a separate society for Muslims within the West. While he highlights the importance of keeping open a dialogue with non-Muslims, he advocates the establishment of Muslim communities with “their own religious, educational and recreational establishments.” He urges his fellow revivalists to try “to have your small society within the larger society” and “your own ‘Muslim ghetto.’”

Read more

Ba'asyir Denounces Jihad? A Tactical Shift, Not a Strategic One

By Zachary Abuza

Much is written about Abu Bakar Ba’asyir’s public denouncements of jihad. The first came in a statement to reporters when he was released from prison in mid-June 2006. The most recent one came this weekend in a sermon in a mosque in Kediri, East Java province. According to the Indonesian state news agency, Antara, Ba’asyir urged his followers to go abroad to wage jihad, though without explaining why. “If you want to go on jihad, do not do it here [Indonesia], but in the southern Philippines or even in Iraq.” He reiterated something that he had said in the past, that the Bali bombers were legitimate jihadis, but their jihad was “not at the right time or place.” He concluded by saying, “Therefore I ask [Mujahidin Congress of Indonesia] MMI followers not to imitate them because (their actions) are harmful. They miscalculated.”

Has Ba’asyir, who previously endorsed jihad against the West, embraced Osama bin Laden’s fatwah against America, and who, as the amir of Jemaah Islamiyah could very well have used his authority to stop the annual bombings, really committed himself to non-violence? Ba’asyir did not condemn the actions of the Bali bombers on moral or theological grounds, but on timing. Likewise, he is endorsing violent jihad in places other than Indonesia.

Why not Indonesia? Most likely, Ba’asyir is trying to keep himself out of prison. This was a large public sermon and we know little about what he is saying in private. Though released in June 2006, Indonesia has been under diplomatic pressure for his release and other remissions of JI members. Since then, he has publicly espoused a program of dawah to achieve his goal of establishing an Islamic state. He has also been active in expanding the Mujahidin Congress of Indonesia’s network across the archipelago and enhancing their social services. Like many within JI, there is a feeling that the annual bombings of soft Western targets while still being jihad, has been counter-productive because it has led to harsh crackdowns and arrests of key members. A tactical shift, but not a strategic one.

Our Ambiguity on the Muslim Brotherhood

By Douglas Farah

The United States and most of Europe has maintained what can be called, at best, an ambivalent policy toward the international Muslim Brotherhood, often arguing that leaders of the _Ikwan_ are, in fact moderates who want a dialogue with the West.

But the Muslim Brotherhood's official website, if anyone in the policy-making world wanted to read it, tells a different story, in fairly clear English. This again is not a hidden site, but the official site of the Brotherhood, putting out its official positions.

What baffles me is that, if we listened to what they said, we could decide rationally how to deal with them: no contact, limited contact, contact based on the reality of what the MB says it is etc. Instead, we have an inconsistent policy of occassional contact and high-level contact with MB front groups that pretend to be what they are not. Since neither side is based in reality, little serious analysis can be done.

Here is just a sample of what the MB writes to its own, in English. I am told the Arabic is far harsher. My full blog is here.

Shiites Against Hezbollah

By David Schenker

I had an article in The Weekly Standard this week. The intro is below. You can get the full article at the Standard's website.

Shiites Against Hezbollah The other struggle in Lebanon.
by David Schenker
11/13/2006, Volume 012, Issue 09

HEZBOLLAH ROCKETS stopped raining on Israel nearly two months ago, but the Shiite organization's onslaught continues. Today, instead of directly attacking Israel, the Party of God is targeting Lebanese intellectuals and politicians who have the temerity to question Hezbollah's hegemony over local Shiite politics.

There's no debating that Hezbollah is a popular organization in Lebanon and particularly among Shiites. Not only does the organization provide health, welfare, and education services to its constituents, its military prowess is a source of honor and pride for the community.

But not all Shiites support Hezbollah. Some have been voicing their opposition to the "resistance" agenda, and not surprisingly, Hezbollah is attempting to strong-arm these dissidents into line. The intimidation has not yet degenerated into violence, but, given Hezbollah's track record (the terrorist organization is, with Syria, a leading suspect in several political assassinations in Lebanon since 2005), it is certainly wont to.

Hezbollah's quest for hegemony--and its efforts to enforce party-line discipline over all the Shiites in Lebanon--predates the summer war with Israel. Eleven months ago, in December 2005, Hezbollah and Amal ministers bolted from the government cabinet to protest consideration of an international tribunal to prosecute the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Closely allied with Syria, the lead murder suspect, Hezbollah opposed the notion of an impartial tribunal.

Hamas in the New York Times

By Steven Emerson

On Wednesday, the New York Times ran an op-ed by Ahmed Yousef, titled “Pause for Peace,” in which Yousef calls for a “hudna,” (which he describes as a “long term truce”) between Israel and the Palestinians. The Times identifies Yousef only as “a senior adviser to the Palestinian prime minister, Ismail Haniya.”

Yousef is actually ideally situated to be Haniya’s senior advisor, specifically to attempt to bring Hamas’ message to a Western audience, as Yousef himself spent many years in America as the head of a Hamas front group.

DNI Disclosed Saddam's Nuclear Secrets - Is the Saddam-Terrorism Debate Reopened? (updated 11/4)

By Andrew Cochran

Today's "New York Times" includes a story about the disclosure of a nuclear weapons "cookbook" in the huge stash of documents found in Saddam Hussein's intelligence archives and then posted on the internet archive run by the Director of National Intelligence. The story notes that the DNI shut down the web archive after its reporters "asked about complaints from weapons experts and arms-control officials," and validated that the document in question does, indeed, provide a primer for building a nuke. In a conference call with reporters this afternoon, critics of the Administration, including former NSC official Rand Beers, called today for an investigation by either Congress or the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board into the uploading of the documents to the website, and for officials from the DNI to be held directly responsible for any improprieties. They made the point, with which I certainly agree, that no information on a classified weapons system should ever be posted on the internet. (EDIT 11/4: Philip Henika forwarded this "Secrecy News" blog post by expert Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists' Project on Government Secrecy, which expresses skepticism about the importance of the disclosure: "But in Secrecy News' estimation, the New York Times story failed to include an appropriate note of skepticism about the significance of the disclosures... the basics of nuclear weapons construction have long been publicly available...")

To my knowledge, this is the first time that the NYT has validated one of the tens of thousands of documents in Saddam's intel stash (CORRECTION 11/4: Mark Eichenlaub emailed me about a NYT story on June 25, 2004 in which it authenticated a document reporting contact between the Hussein regime and Bin Laden in the mid-1990s. So make that TWO documents authenticated by the NYT). I posted several times this year about the intriguing possibility that these docs might tell us more about Saddam's ties to numerous terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda (see here and here and here). I talked with Stephen Hayes, the premier champion for the theory that Saddam had stronger ties to Al Qaeda than indicated by the intel community. I also talked with senior staff for Sen. Rick Santorum, who along with Rep. Peter Hoekstra pushed for the creation of the website and the translation of the entire stash. I balanced their views against those of veteran reporters and experts on the intel community, who advised me to distrust the documents and the investigations by Hayes et al. After the Senate Intelligence Committee released its report concluding that there were no Saddam-Al Qaeda links, I told one trusted source that I was preparing a post titled, "CIA Leak Case & Saddam-Osama Links: Two Dead Stories" (I didn't have time to write it). I thought the story was over.

Others continued to arrange for private translations of the documents. Ed Morrissey of the "Captain's Quarters" blog today summarizes fascinating translations of numerous documents that point to, among other revelations, the Hussein regime's contacts with Al Qaeda. Compare the document referred to in that post to a statement this September by Sen. Rockefeller, ranking Member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, that "No evidence was found of any meeting between the Iraq regime and al-Qa'ida before the war other than a single meeting that took place in 1995 in the Sudan..." I cannot reconcile the difference without more work for which I don't have time.

In investigating and publishing this story, the NYT may have reopened the entire debate. As Mr. Beers and his colleagues on the call said, there should be a process for the appropriate classification and release of each document. I just want a complete and objective translation, authentication, and interpretation of every page of the documents which can be released without endangering national security. I can accept the results, no matter what the conclusion. We still haven't seen that yet.

Hamas Operatives Charged with Targeting Jordan

By Aaron Mannes

Today, Jordan’s military prosecutor charged three Hamas operatives with planning attacks against Jordanian intelligence officers and Israeli targets in Jordan. Fellow CTblogger David Schenker wrote a backgrounder when the plot was discovered in May that discusses its implications on Jordanian politics where Hamas has a close relationship with the leading Jordanian opposition party, the Islamic Action Front.

This plot also highlights a disturbing possibility. As Hamas finds it increasingly difficult to hit Israel directly, they are more likely to hit Israel abroad or attack Israel’s allies. In 2003, Jamal Akkal, a Canadian-Palestinian, had been recruited by Hamas to strike Israeli and Jewish targets in the United States.

Egypt could also find itself a victim. The trio of bombings in the Sinai reportedly had links to Gaza-based terrorists. Here, the Egyptian government is playing a dangerous game in turning a blind-eye to the massive weapons smuggling under the Egyptian-Gaza border. Those tunnels go two ways and Egypt, with its own increasingly assertive Islamists, may suffer from this negligence.

Hamas’ increasing turn to terror outside of Israel proper dovetails with another dangerous trend. The ongoing chaos in Gaza and the West Bank has created a vacuum that has been filled by Iran and its Syrian and Hezbollah allies. Hamas has important assets that complement the capabilities of the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis and could also be pressed to expand its operating theater by its patrons.

(For previous articles on this issue see here, here, and here.)

Crossposted to ProfilesinTerror.

Africa, China and the Shifting World Order

By Douglas Farah

Sudan's president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, claims that a U.N. peacekeeping force to stop his well-financed and brutal Islamist campaign in Darfur would turn his country into "another Iraq." The statement is not as surprising or as menacing as the venue where al Bashir chose to make it-Bejing, where the Chinese are hosting an Africa summit attended by 48 African leaders.

The Chinese expect $50 billion in trade between Africa and China this year. Bejing is dispensing hundreds of millions of dollars in aid and weapons systems to secure access to the oil, copper, timber and other comodities in Africa.

In return, the Chinese protect the muderous regime in Khartoum, the ravagers of Zimbabwe, the thugs in Equatorial Guinea, the xenophobes in Ivory Coast and other unsavory people who have made life hell for their people for decades. My full blog is here.

War Imminent in Baidoa; Further Attacks Expected Outside of Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I recently wrote that the extremist Islamic Courts Union (ICU) may be preparing for a final push into Baidoa, where Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) is hunkered down. There are now indications that this final push may be imminent. Mediators recently called off talks between the ICU and TFG. The talks reached an impasse because of the ICU's demand that Ethiopian troops -- which have taken up a defensive posture around Baidoa -- leave the country. There are now "widespread fears that lack of dialogue could lead to an escalation of violence." Reports indicate that ICU forces test-fired rockets today in preparation for war against the TFG.

Less than twenty miles separates the TFG and ICU fighters. A senior ICU commander, Maalim Hashi Ahmed, told Reuters, "The onus is on us to start the fight. We will be the first to strike." Framing this as a fight against the Ethiopians, Ahmed said, "If someone takes your shirt, it's upon you to repossess it. That is what we plan to do. Ethiopia has invaded us so it is our responsibility to remove them from our land. We intend to carry out this obligation as soon as possible." Meanwhile, residents of the strategic hill town Buur Hakaba reported that hundreds of ICU fighters were deployed overnight, and fired heavy weapons early today.

With the forces so close to each other, it's possible that hostilities could begin as early as today. Moreover, the U.S. embassy has warned that "extremist elements" in Somalia may be targeting Kenya, Ethiopia and other "surrounding countries" for suicide bombings. I recently spoke with a military intelligence source about this. He reported that the ICU, in mounting its final assault on Baidoa, may be planning on taking extraterritorial action against TFG officials residing in Kenya, Ethiopia, and other countries. (I previously noted that one of the reasons that the ICU hasn't yet mounted its assault on Baidoa may be its "desire to prevent the transitional government from escaping to Ethiopia or another sympathetic country and becoming a permanent thorn in the ICU's side: The radicals would like to see all major figures in the transitional government killed or captured.") This extraterritorial action is believed to involve vehicular suicide attacks perpetrated by non-Somali agents. If these reports are correct, this conflict may be on the brink of spreading beyond Somalia's borders.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Islamic Militancy in Bangladesh: Still in a Cocoon or Exposed?

By Animesh Roul

Looking at the recent developments in Bangladesh, it seems this South Asian country is experiencing political and social turmoil coupled with Islamic militancy and organized crime that includes piracy and trafficking.

I could recollect couple of important articles by investigative journalists Bertil Lintner and Alex Perry on Bangladesh four years ago which depicted then emerging trends on Islamic fundamentalism and how the country was becoming a safe haven for terrorists.[ Lintner, “Cocoon of Terror”, FEER, April 4, 2002; Alex Perry , “Deadly Cargo”, Times Aisa, Oct. 21, 2002]. Litner observed “The coastal area stretching from the port city of Chittagong south through Cox's Bazar to the Burmese (Myanmar) border is a notorious centre for piracy, smuggling, arms dealing and gun-running. It is also a stronghold of the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami, its youth wing Islami Chhatra Shibir and other extreme Muslim groups.” Perry’s article hovered around Ship MV Mecca and the arrival of suspected Al-Qaeda cadres in the capital Dhaka in 2002.

Certainly, these two articles opened a Pandora’s box especially for International community, but not for India. India has long been experiencing cross border terrorism or illegal infiltrations from the bordering nation. In addition, Bangaldesh’s territory has been used as a safe haven for various militant groups operating in India’s northeastern states. With the changed political situation in Bangladesh, infiltration by militants is reportedly increasing in Indian state of Tripura. More than 50 National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) cadres and at least 30 All Tripura Tigers Force (ATTF) cadres crossed over to the State from Bangladesh through porous border in the past three months, media report quoting intelligence sources indicated recently. According to the sources, the number of infiltration increased considerably in August 2006.

"Combat, not Surrender": Video of Abu Yahya al Libi Released

By Andrew Cochran

As advertised yesterday, the As Sahab arm of Al Qaeda has released the video of Abu Yahya al Libi. Laura Mansfield reports, "In this seventeen minute video announced on November 1, 2006, on various jihadi message boards, al Libi eulogizes his fellow Bagram escapee Farouq al Iraqi, who was killed several weeks ago in Iraq. He calls upon Islamic scholars to join in on the battlefield of Jihad, chastising them for their lack of participation. He claims victory over the Americans is near, asking the following questions of the US:

Here is your number one enemy after they spread their arrogance and conceit has admitted with all humiliation that its decision to go into Iraq was wrong. We ask him, how did you discover that its decision to go into Iraq was wrong and when?

Is it after your planes got tired of flying back and forth carrying thousands coffins of the dirty bodies of the soldiers who were killed by the loyal and faithful? Is it after you wasted all your billions and then found out that the money is going nowhere?

Is it after you discovered that Islamic nation is a nation of belief and principle, sacrifice and power, it is the nation that will never give up its principles, a nation that will never be led by any outsiders.

We tell you that you will discover soon that your decision to go into Afghanistan was wrong too. Know that your support to the state of Israel is wrong as well. Also know that your decision to go to the Arab peninsula, the birthplace of the message and the land of divine inspiration was wrong as well. You still admit and acknowledge that this nation is a nation of steadfastness and sacrifice and undefeated power that will never bow to its enemies despite their tyranny and arrogance. History will give you the lesson about our events, our states and our battles."

Southeast Asia Updates

By Zachary Abuza

Here are a few updates in the issues I've covered in the past week in the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia.

Philippines: The Philippine government announced they had failed to meet a second deadline in providing the MILF with a new draft for the thorny issue of ancestral domain. Government negotiators have now asked the MILF to have until 15 November to table the new draft proposal. This undermines president Arroyo’s repeated claims that the talks were “80%” completed. On Monday, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo said she was “willing to grant” the demands of the MILF on the issue of ancestral domain. Obviously, the Philippine government remains woefully divided on how much to concede to the Moro rebels.

AFP chief General Hermogenes Esperon announced that there was no evidence to link MILF chairman Ebrahim el Haj Murad to the 10 October bombing that killed six people in North Cotabato province, Philippine Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez ordered a review of sworn statements by recent terrorist suspects who linked Murad to the attack. We are now watching a political-legal climb down in order to salvage the talks.

Indonesia: Indonesian National Police (INP) arrested three Malaysians suspected of being couriers for a top JI leader, Noordin Mohammad Top in Jombang district, East Java province.

In Central Sulawesi, the INP named 15 people who had been previously arrested as suspects in the sectarian bloodletting in Poso and Palu; and named 26 suspects still at large. The INP announced that the 41 were "members of the Tanah Runtuh and Kompak Kayamanya groups;” both thought to be JI splinters or semi-autonomous groups founded by JI members and/or sympathizers.

Australia: A first rate article by Natalie O’Brien and Simon Kearney in today’s The Australian, gives much more information on the wife and children of JI member Abdul Rahim Ayub, Rabiah Hutchinson. Apparently she and Ayub separated in the late R990s, and so the wife that Ayub was reported to be with in Java is Indonesian. Rabiah remained on an Australian government watchlist. The article suggests that there was far more to the arrest of the eight foreigners in Yemen than simply running weapons to Islamists in Somalia; it seems an odd task for several Caucasians who could be used for other types of operations.

And the Negotiations Start

By David Schenker

Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed yesterday that “serious” negotiations had commenced with Israel via a third party intermediary regarding prisoner exchange. The prisoners in question were captured by Hizballah during an audacious border operation in July, sparking a month-long war between Israel and Hizballah. While Israel—and in fact UNSCR 1701—demand the unconditional release of the two captured IDF soldiers, it is all but assured that Hizballah will leverage the prisoners in an attempt to secure the release, at the very least, of three Lebanese terrorists currently incarcerated in Israel.

A prisoner release would add a “political” victory to the self-declared (and widely perceived) “military” victory of Hizballah. But if Israel agreed to a swap, it wouldn’t be the first time. For example, in 1983, Israel released nearly 5000 Palestinian terrorists in exchange for 6 Israeli soldiers captured in Lebanon; in 1985, Israel traded 1150 terrorists for three Israeli POWs in Lebanon; in 2004 Israel freed over 400 Hizballahis and Palestinians in return for the bodies of three dead soldiers and an Israeli businessman kidnapped inEurope and transferred to Lebanon.

These deals occurred because the Israeli Government has for years employed the operating principle that it would use all means possible to return its captured and killed soldiers. While this value is admirable, it is not without cost. Over the years, Israel’s willingness to deal has confirmed the usefulness of the kidnapping tactic. In this regard, the laws of supply and demand apply: if Israel pays for terrorism, it can only expect more. Even before the summer crisis with Hizballah, Hamas succeeded in capturing Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who remains a captive in Gaza. In exchange for Shalit’s return, Hamas is demanding the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

Jihad, Zakat and Words from the Master

By Douglas Farah

There is an extensive campaign by CAIR and other Islamist groups to portray jihad as a purely spiritual struggle a good Muslim wages to overcome personal evil. It is also a point made often by the "moderates" of the Muslim Brotherhood. This has led to confusion in policy and a fear of offending if one calls jihad what it really is.

But as I have said repeatedly, just read what they say themselves to understand what the real agenda is. They tell us what they want to do, and yet we refuse to take them seriously by either understanding and knowing what they say, or acting to stop them.

A 1999 tome titled "Fiqh az-Zakat: A Comparative Study," by Yousef al-Qaradawi, the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood leaves no ambiguity as to the nature of jihad. While often portrayed as a moderate, Qaradawi is one of the modern architects of the Islamist project to re-establish the Muslim Caliphate and then bring Allah's rule to the rest of the world.

In writing about the use of zakat, the 2.5 percent of every earning and transaction a Muslim is to give to the cause of Allah, Qaradawi writes: "The most honorable form of jihad nowadays is fighting for the liberation of Muslim land from the domination of unbelievers, regardless of their religion or ideology. The communist and the capitalist, the Westerner and the Easterner, Christian, Jew, pagan or unbeliever, all are aggressors when they attack and occupy Muslim land." My entire blog is here.

New Al Qaeda Video Coming Soon (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Laura Mansfield discloses that As Sahab will release a new Al Qaeda video tape soon. "According to banners placed on several Arabic language message boards, it appears that Al Qaeda's media production arm, As Sahab, will be releasing a new video tape 'soon.' This tape does not show either Osama Bin Laden or Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, but instead features an address by Abu Yahya al Libi." UPDATE: ABC News reports that al Libi, who escaped from a US prison at Bagram, Afghanistan in 2005, will honor Umar Faruq, who was killed in Iraq by British troops in September. See my post on his killing and Kenneth Conboy's post on his leading role for Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia. More as that video is released. As Sahab banner announcement below: