And the Negotiations Start

By David Schenker

Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed yesterday that “serious” negotiations had commenced with Israel via a third party intermediary regarding prisoner exchange. The prisoners in question were captured by Hizballah during an audacious border operation in July, sparking a month-long war between Israel and Hizballah. While Israel—and in fact UNSCR 1701—demand the unconditional release of the two captured IDF soldiers, it is all but assured that Hizballah will leverage the prisoners in an attempt to secure the release, at the very least, of three Lebanese terrorists currently incarcerated in Israel.

A prisoner release would add a “political” victory to the self-declared (and widely perceived) “military” victory of Hizballah. But if Israel agreed to a swap, it wouldn’t be the first time. For example, in 1983, Israel released nearly 5000 Palestinian terrorists in exchange for 6 Israeli soldiers captured in Lebanon; in 1985, Israel traded 1150 terrorists for three Israeli POWs in Lebanon; in 2004 Israel freed over 400 Hizballahis and Palestinians in return for the bodies of three dead soldiers and an Israeli businessman kidnapped inEurope and transferred to Lebanon.

These deals occurred because the Israeli Government has for years employed the operating principle that it would use all means possible to return its captured and killed soldiers. While this value is admirable, it is not without cost. Over the years, Israel’s willingness to deal has confirmed the usefulness of the kidnapping tactic. In this regard, the laws of supply and demand apply: if Israel pays for terrorism, it can only expect more. Even before the summer crisis with Hizballah, Hamas succeeded in capturing Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who remains a captive in Gaza. In exchange for Shalit’s return, Hamas is demanding the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

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