Counterterrorism Blog

As my colleague Douglas Farah has noted, a State Department official has finally acknowledged that al-Qaeda is operating "with great comfort" in Somalia. This terrorist presence was underscored by three suicide car bombings that took place today outside the transitional federal government's (TFG) base in Baidoa. The Associated Press notes that "[t]he attack had the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation." Initial reports indicate that eight people died in the blasts (including two policemen, three drivers, and three accomplices), but a senior official in the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has claimed that at least twenty-four Ethiopian soldiers were killed.

This is the second instance of a suicide car bombing in Baidoa in the last three months. On September 18, president Abdullahi Yusuf's convoy was attacked. Eleven people, including Yusuf's younger brother, were killed.

There are two strategic implications to this latest suicide bombing. First, the ICU may be preparing for a final assault on Baidoa. Along with the suicide bombing, the ICU has begun to attack the Ethiopian military's supply lines. The ICU has surrounded Baidoa for a significant time, and has been beefing up its numbers and supplies. According to a confidential UN report that has been leaked to the media, the ICU has received weapons -- as well as training and financing -- from the likes of Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Hizballah. While the ICU's final push into Baidoa has appeared imminent in the past, it may now be drawing closer.

A second implication is that there should now be no lingering question about the presence of foreign fighters and al-Qaeda militants in Somalia. After the suicide bombing, TFG deputy defense minister Salad Ali Jelle stated that there were non-Somalis among the dead, and referred to them as "al-Qaeda supporters." A police officer at the scene told the Associated Press that three men who were captured appeared to be African but were not Somali. The revelation of foreign fighter involvement in the suicide attack comes on top of the SITE Institute obtaining a tape released by the al-Fajr Information Center entitled "Apostate Hell in Somalia." The SITE Institute notes that the video features ICU figures including Abu Qutayba and Abu Mansuur, and explains that the video "shows the training of the fighters, glorification of the Emir of al-Qaeda, Usama bin Laden, and interviews with the Islamic poet, Abshir Bacadle, and a female Mujahida." While the ICU and its supporters may continue to insist that there is no foreign fighter or al-Qaeda presence in Somalia, these protests should now fall on deaf ears.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.