Somalia and Lebanon

By Aaron Mannes

According to a leaked UN Report to the Security Council the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis is making major inroads into Somalia and establishing an alliance with the Islamic Courts Union. The most sensational detail reported is that over 700 Somali militiamen joined Hezbollah in the fighting in Lebanon. This is unlikely. There were no Israeli reports of encounters with Somalis in the fighting. Nor were there reports from Israeli military morgues of Somali casualties. (Israeli morgues track this information meticulously, both because identifying enemy casualties can provide valuable insight into the organization's hierarchy and in order to comply with international norms that require respect for the corpses of those killed in battle.)

However, Tehran et al are providing support for the Islamic Courts Union and that is worrisome. Besides the possibility of access to uranium deposits in Somalia, influence in Somalia gives Iran a foothold on the strategic Horn of Africa. This, combined with Iran's dominant position on the Staits of Hormuz, gives Iran leverage over two crucial shipping channels. Somalia is already a haven for piracy, and with professional help, this piracy could become a major international problem.

Yemen, which has a strong Islamist presence and almost certainly does not want a radical Islamist state so close, is backing the weak Transitional Federal Government. Yemen also has a restive Shiite minority that has reportedly received Iranian support.

A final note - the Somali Muslims are Sunni. Iran is Shiite. While in Iraq Sunnis and Shiite have turned on each other in bloody sectarian violence this should not lead to simplistic conclusions that Sunni and Shia radicals cannot collaborate. Hezbollah and Iran supported Sunni Islamists across North Africa, in the Palestinian terroritories, as well as al-Qaeda.

In general, where large communities of Sunni and Shia live nearby, such as Iraq and Pakistan, sectarian violence is highly probable. But predominantly Sunni areas with very small Shia populations may be open to Shia influence. In Sunni Egypt, for example, crowds cheered for Nasrallah and Ahmadinejad.

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