The Danger of Empowering Terrorist States

By Douglas Farah

The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a vocal opponent of Syrian involvement in the country and a leader of the country's Maronite Christian minority, shows the dangers of engaging terrorist states in dialogue as if they were not rational actors, as James Baker and other proponents of the "realist" world view seem to assume.

It seems fairly certain that Syria and its allies in Hezbollah, smarting at the loss of influence in Lebanon and wanting to halt the investigation into the Hariri by whatever means necessary, had a hand in what was correctly labeled a terrorist attack. Hezbollah and its allies in Amal are actively working to destabilize the current government in hopes of extracting more power. Syria and Iran are among the most powerful forces moving the Lebanese drama.

The timing of the attack on Gemayel is interesting. With the Baker Commisson clearly leaning toward recommending a U.S. dialogue with Iran and Syria on Iraq, the two terrorist sponsors are now the new power players in the region. The Bush administration will need them to implement the recommended changes on its Iraq policy, and, since the mid-term elections, is already operating from a position of weakness.

But the price of seriously engaging Syria and Iran will be enormously high. It may be viewed as necessary, but ultimately it will be extremely high. My full blog is here.

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