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War Imminent in Baidoa; Further Attacks Expected Outside of SomaliaBy Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
I recently wrote that the extremist Islamic Courts Union (ICU) may be preparing for a final push into Baidoa, where Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) is hunkered down. There are now indications that this final push may be imminent. Mediators recently called off talks between the ICU and TFG. The talks reached an impasse because of the ICU's demand that Ethiopian troops -- which have taken up a defensive posture around Baidoa -- leave the country. There are now "widespread fears that lack of dialogue could lead to an escalation of violence." Reports indicate that ICU forces test-fired rockets today in preparation for war against the TFG. Less than twenty miles separates the TFG and ICU fighters. A senior ICU commander, Maalim Hashi Ahmed, told Reuters, "The onus is on us to start the fight. We will be the first to strike." Framing this as a fight against the Ethiopians, Ahmed said, "If someone takes your shirt, it's upon you to repossess it. That is what we plan to do. Ethiopia has invaded us so it is our responsibility to remove them from our land. We intend to carry out this obligation as soon as possible." Meanwhile, residents of the strategic hill town Buur Hakaba reported that hundreds of ICU fighters were deployed overnight, and fired heavy weapons early today. With the forces so close to each other, it's possible that hostilities could begin as early as today. Moreover, the U.S. embassy has warned that "extremist elements" in Somalia may be targeting Kenya, Ethiopia and other "surrounding countries" for suicide bombings. I recently spoke with a military intelligence source about this. He reported that the ICU, in mounting its final assault on Baidoa, may be planning on taking extraterritorial action against TFG officials residing in Kenya, Ethiopia, and other countries. (I previously noted that one of the reasons that the ICU hasn't yet mounted its assault on Baidoa may be its "desire to prevent the transitional government from escaping to Ethiopia or another sympathetic country and becoming a permanent thorn in the ICU's side: The radicals would like to see all major figures in the transitional government killed or captured.") This extraterritorial action is believed to involve vehicular suicide attacks perpetrated by non-Somali agents. If these reports are correct, this conflict may be on the brink of spreading beyond Somalia's borders.
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