8 New Years Eve Bombs Shake Up Bangkok; At Least 2 More Defused

By Zachary Abuza

Six bombs were exploded nearly simultaneously across downtown Bangkok on New Years Eve as revelers began to turnout for dinner and the evening’s festivities. The first bomb exploded at the Victory Monument, an area crowded with food stalls, the terminus for small commuter vans from the northern districts. Subsequent bombings were at crowded locations, but not high profile ones and nowhere where the expat community and tourists would tend to congregate. These included two bombs in Klong Toey and in the parking lot of Bangkok’s largest Mall in an eastern district. The 6th bomb reportedly exploded in the movie theater in Bangkok’s newest and glitziest malls, the Siam Paragon.

Two more bombs were detonated just after midnight, this time in more heavily tourist areas. The first bomb exploded at a popular restaurant near the Pratunam Pier. Five people were wounded, including three foreigners, one of whom had his leg amputated. The second bomb went off in a pedestrian flyover that links two major malls, Central World and Gaesorn Plaza. A major concert that was supposed to take place outside Central World was earlier canceled. In addition, a suspected bomb was found in a crowded bar on Khao San road, the crowded backpacker quarter. A second bomb was found and disarmed at the Lumpini Night Bazaar.

So far there have been only three deaths reported, though there have been at least 38 people wounded.

Coup leader, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has deployed additional soldiers from the 1st Army to Bangkok to help the police patrol the area. Martial law was recently lifted in the capital.

The low profile targets at first led me and other analysts that I spoke with to discount the involvement of Muslim militants from the deep south. The bombs at first seemed intended to provoke a domestic response, but not elicit much in the way of international attention. While I have long argued that they have never taken the option of targeting Bangkok off the table, nor are they ideologically against it, at the time they really don’t need to change their strategy. At this point the insurgents are winning (they certainly are not losing). The southern insurgents clearly have the technical capacity to execute large-scale bombings in Bangkok. On a daily basis they detonate far more powerful bombs than what went off in Bangkok. Yet, to carry out so many bombings would require an infrastructure in Bangkok that few would consider them to have. The bombs were also not like the ones usually employed by southern insurgents, in terms of composition or detonation device. The bombs in the south tend to be larger usually 5kg and often 10-15kg, and cell-phone detonated. The insurgents have tried for mass casualty attacks. The bombs in Bangkok could have been larger; the aim does not yet seem to be to create mass casualties.

While the southern insurgency cannot be ruled out, especially as more attacks on tourist venues were hit later in the evening, the prevailing wind in Bangkok is that the bombings were linked to elite political strife over the 19 September coup. There have been several bombings in Bangkok in the past few years, but all have been linked to elite conflicts, not the insurgency. Currently there are several hypotheses: It could be the police or other forces disgruntled with the military’s takeover. The police are wildly unhappy about the reforms that the military is going to soon force on the police. Yet, one of the bombs was placed at a small police kiosk wounding several police officers. It could have been the work of supporters of Thaksin simply out to discredit and destabilize the Council on National Security (CNS) and the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. Officials from former Prime Minister Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party have denied any involvement in the blasts. It is possible that it is also the military. Some are angry that Sonthi has not gone far enough in consolidating power, others might be frustrated that all legal efforts to go after Thaksin and his allegedly ill-gotten gains have failed. It is telling that unnamed sources from the told The Nation newspaper that the CNS was considering seizing Thaksin’s assets so that he could no longer destabilize the country. And of course, it could be the work of the southern insurgents. They clearly have the technical capacity to do this.

Security was clearly tightened at the new international airport. While it wasn’t in lockdown mode, there was far more security (taxis unable to cue, drop off points one lane further away from the terminal, pre-screening of bags upon entry to the terminal). Two large outdoor concert venues, with some several hundred thousand in attendance, were canceled.

Sky News has reported that one suspect has been arrested, allegedly carrying a bomb at the time. General Sonthi, who was on Haj in Mecca, immediately departed for Thailand.

2007: Strategic Thinking Needed in Fighting Global Jihad

By Jeffrey Imm

The United States of America has some of the smartest leaders in government, military, and business in the world. Yet the American government has failed to collectively use this formidable brain-power 5+ years after the attack by Jihadists on the American homeland to develop a truly strategic plan to fight the global threat of Jihad and Islamist extremism. In one of the most complex wars in American history, rather than starting with holistic, big-picture thinking towards the challenges and prioritizing resources and actions accordingly, America has spent much of the past five years after 9/11 in reactive and bureaucratic churning.

The recent reports about a lack of understanding of the role of individual Islamic groups in Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda by the new House Intelligence Panel Chairman and lack of knowledge of Sunni/Shiite groups by some FBI counterterrorism executives are not "isolated incidents". Nor is the limited number of FBI agents with Arabic language skills - five years after 9/11 - an "isolated problem". While these stories may exaggerate the limitations and educational challenges in such groups, they highlight the problem for American government in prioritization of education and resources, due to lack of a fundamental blueprint and analysis in understanding the larger problem of Jihad and global Islamist extremism. This lack of a blueprint prevents the government leadership from effectively evaluating options and priorities.

Recently, Air Force Brig. Gen. Mark O. Schissler has stated that the fight against Islamist extremism will be a "generational war" with both military and ideological components comparable to the Cold War against Communism. However, what Brig. General Schissler does not share is the national blueprint that America needs to be using for this generational war, that has been reviewed and analyzed by national leaders and scholars of Jihad and global Islamist extremism, that is needed for such a long-term effort, which is vastly more than simply military and "counterterrorism" activities. As Douglas Farah has pointed out, "[t]here is very little work being done in looking at the 10 to 20 year horizon on where Islamists are now", but mostly 3 to 5 year horizon thinking typically done n the Pentagon and Intelligence Community. This is yet another symptom of the larger problem in the lack of any larger, overall national strategic blueprint that focuses on all aspects of the global challenge.

The American government has been able to develop a group to investigate and issue a report on the 9/11 attacks, resulting in a 9/11 Commission Report, and now an Iraq Study Group, but it has yet to develop a cross-section of American scholars and leaders to research and develop a strategy on national countermeasures against global Jihad and Islamist extremist activity. There is no "Islamist Study Group" or "Jihadist Study Group" as a blueprint for government countermeasures in the larger global war, which requires greater political fortitude to face up to. As a result, American policy is focused on individual tactics in military battles in individual countries, and strategic assumptions related to "counterterrorism" and "homeland security" tactics - all of which, while more politically correct, provide a false sense of accomplishment. None of these tactical focuses can replace the need for a larger, strategic vision that encompasses all tactical aspects of the war, including but not limited to: cultural, demographic, economic, energy, educational, communications, intelligence (domestic and foreign), preparedness, law enforcement, and military areas.

Executing Saddam on Eid al-Adha is a Mistake

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Saddam Hussein was executed this morning (6:00 a.m. Baghdad time), on Eid al-Adha. The timing of his execution was a mistake. I don't expect a surge in violence in Iraq because pretty much all the remaining Ba'athists there have professed a conversion to radical Islam, and there have been no serious efforts by jihadist factions to condemn the execution. Saddam does have a following among ex-pat Ba'athists in Jordan and Syria, but they don't have the infrastructure to carry out retaliatory attacks.

However, the timing of Saddam's execution has a deleterious effect that is more difficult to measure empirically. Eid al-Adha is one of Islam's two most important holidays, and today throughout the Muslim world the holiday is being overshadowed by Saddam's execution. A source in the Muslim community reports that in Saudi Arabia, some Muslims simultaneously watched the Eid salat on one television channel and Saddam's execution on another. One woman in Saudi Arabia commented that she found this "unsettling," and not because she has any warm feelings for Saddam. Rather, for many Middle Easterners, Saddam's execution seemingly intrudes on what should be a time of celebration for them: it is an intrusion because the Iraq war is extremely unpopular throughout the Middle East, and the televised execution is a stark reminder that the war is still raging. (Reuters also reports on Middle Eastern consternation about the timing of the execution.) The same Muslim source speculates that for other Middle Easterners, the execution may be a painful reminder that they have little recourse against the dictatorial regimes that rule them without the United States. The negative symbolism is heightened by linking the execution to Eid.

One final negative about the timing of the execution is that it may contribute to sectarian divisions in Iraq. Some Sunnis are upset about the execution because Saddam is a Sunni, and they feel that the new Iraq is dominated by Shias. On the other hand, an Iraqi-American source who is in contact with a great deal of people in Iraq tells me that some Shias believe they are "doubly blessed" on Eid al-Adha because of Saddam's execution. So these sectarian divisions are emphasized by the execution's timing.

Saddam Hussein, Longtime State Sponsor of Terrorism, Executed by Iraqis (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

"Criminal Saddam was hanged to death" - Iraqi state TV. Saddam Hussein was executed around 10 pm ET (Al Arabiya reports the death at 10:05 ET). Two other Hussein-era officials, including his half-brother, have not yet been executed and remain in U.S. custody, according to Iraqi officials quoted by CNN (edited). The Associated Press has a summary of the convictions and sentences in the Hussein trial.

Saddam Hussein was a longtime state sponsor of terrorism, and during his reign, Iraq was listed by the State Department on the official list of "state sponsors." Iraq was added to that list in 1990 following its invasion of Kuwait and also for providing bases to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Palestine Liberation Front (PLF), and the Abu Nidal organization (ANO). Following the 2003 liberation of Iraq from Hussein's rule, U.S. sanctions applicable to state sponsors of terrorism against Iraq were suspended, and President Bush announced the removal of Iraq from the list on September 25, 2004.

More details of his ties to terrorists have been developed since the 2003 liberation. Saddam funded Palestinian suicide bombers through an account in Rafidain Bank in Jordan (see chart of the payments released by a U.S. House committee in January 2005 only to this site). He also funded the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group in the Philippines. I discussed other possible ties to Palestinian and other terrorist groups in numerous posts, which are best summarized in one post on November 3 and another on March 31.

The execution will have no impact on the current situation in Iraq, other than being cited as another excuse for more terrorism by Sunni insurgents. But Saddam was a mass murderer and a tyrant. To the best of my knowledge, he was the only ruler in the past 50 years who used chemical weapons on his own people and against another country. In a statement, President Bush noted that Saddam received the fair trial that he denied his victims. You can see a summary of his atrocities on the Fox News site, which reports, "Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result of Saddam's actions." His death is a victory for the rule of law in Iraq and for the civilized world.

Saddam at the gallows (AFP) and compilation of pictures of 148 Iraqis in Dujail executed by Saddam Hussein (Sky News)

US News and World Report "Best Blogs of '06" Lists Counterterrorism Blog

By Jeffrey Imm

US News and World Report listed the Counterterrorism Blog as one of the "Best Blogs of '06" for best "investigative reporting" and "jihadist" research information. As cited by David E. Kaplan, while there are many web sites with "instant experts in counterterrorism", on the Counterterrorism Blog - "here's the real deal: some two dozen analysts, scholars, and investigators who have tracked terrorism around the world for years."

Somalia's Terrorists

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Recently two prominent left-wing bloggers, Matthew Yglesias and Spencer Ackerman, have questioned whether the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) -- the radical group that Ethiopia is currently battling in Somalia -- is really linked to terrorism. Yglesias writes, "What are the names of these people the Islamists are sheltering? How many of them are there? Who are they? What have they done? What diplomatic efforts has the United States made to get the Islamists to turn them over? Pardon me for being cynical, but in this day and age my suspicion is that names aren't involved in these articles but [sic] there's no one in particular the Bush administration is worrying about and this is mostly hype and paranoia." And Ackerman, after a grand total of two telephone calls to public affairs officers at State and the DNI, concludes, "The administration believes three terrorists are in Somalia, with unclear or unstated connections to the ICU. Then there's the issue of Aweys, whom the U.S. isn't officially making an issue, for unclear reasons. Decide for yourself if this is a good reason to instigate a regional war."

In the first place, the criteria these two gentlemen use is flawed: there's no reason to make the names of specific terrorists the determinative measurement, rather than the seventeen active terrorist training camps in the country, the al-Qaeda-like propaganda tapes that the ICU has been producing, and the conspicuous presence of foreign fighters. But beyond that, this also illustrates one of the flaws of making the study of terrorism all about the Bush administration. Either the ICU is a threat or it isn't: two phone calls to a couple of public affairs officers with no expertise in Somalia is unlikely to resolve the matter. The fact is that an examination of information that is publicly available would quickly turn up links between the ICU and terrorism -- including the names that Yglesias and Ackerman desire.

As an initial matter, the precursor group to the ICU, al-Ittihad al-Islamiyya (AIAI) hasn't abandoned its support for terrorism. A look at the biographies of the fourteen high-value terrorists who were recently transferred to Gitmo bears this out: the section on the last detainee, Gouled Hassan Dourad, shows that in recent years AIAI has planned to attack the U.S. military base in Djibouti, shoot down Ethiopian airliners, and kidnap Western NGO workers in Somalia.

The United Nations released reports in both 2004 and 2006 that support the view that there is a substantial presence of foreign fighters in Somalia that are facilitating terrorist training and adopting an international jihadist agenda. (Foreign fighters do not comprise the majority of ICU fighters, but are still a significant presence). For specific names of terrorists, we can turn to reports produced by the International Crisis Group -- an organization that tends to be critical of the U.S. role in Somalia.

The ICG’s May 2002 report Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State names four key leaders in the AIAI terrorist group: Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Hassan Turki, Mogadishu bin Laden associate Sheikh Omar Faruuq, and Hassan Turabi associate Ibrahim Disuqi.

The ICG’s July 2005 report Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds? notes the following:

- Aden Hashi 'Ayro, who trained in an al-Qaeda camp in Afghanistan, has assassinated four foreign aid workers. (I have a list of people killed by 'Ayro's group that shows there have, in fact, been far more assassinations than this.) The report notes that 'Ayro's network may be helping al-Qaeda operate in Somalia with logistics, jobs, identities and protection. (A quote from the report as a caveat: "Although evidence linking 'Ayro to al-Qaeda appears to be largely circumstantial, the allegations are serious enough to merit a brief review of al-Qaeda's involvement in Somalia over the years and the scope of its current presence there.")

U.S. Investigations Lead to Arrests in Gemayel Assassination Case

By Andrew Cochran

The following article appeared in the "Alsyassa" newspaper in Lebanon last week and has been translated to English by a friend and highly reliable source. The article points to investigations in the U.S. which led to the arrests of Syrian-allied suspects in Lebanon:

"The investigation into the assassination of Pierre Gemayel led to the detection and seizure of weapons and explosives detonators and the arrest of seven of the Beirut-Syrian nationalists

The Lebanese authorities confiscated weapons and explosives yesterday of several locations of the Syrian Social National Party, the pro-Syria in the Koura in northern Lebanon. A security source said that the raid and confiscation included locations and houses scattered in several villages in the Koura province, south-east Tripoli, most prominent Kosba, Shekka and Afessdeeq. As to the Directorate General of the Internal Security Forces assured in a statement that “the arrest of a number of people" during raids and the confiscation of weapons and explosives in Koura.

The source explained that one of its unit raided several houses in the Koura found inside "a large quantity of explosives with electric detonators used for the bombing and stopwatches to control the timing of the bombing in addition to large quantities of weapons." Authorized Lebanese security sources revealed to al-Seyassah that, during the raids on two stolen cars caches inside one of the Syrian Social National Party, working to identify their owners, have confiscated the equivalent of two truckloads of weapons.

Well aware those, the official of the SSNP Tony Mansour and his father were arrested during the raid and seized a gun inside the car of the first, and that security forces cordoned off the main party headquarters in Beirut. Meanwhile Party leader, Ali Qanso, admitted the arrest of seven official Syrian Social nationalists and the confiscation of explosives in northern Lebanon, claiming that they were kept since "the 1980s when he was involved in the resistance" against Israel.

Informed sources declared to al-Seyassah that, before 15 days, the National Security in the United States investigated Halim Hardan, student at the University of St. Louis, son of current MP Assaad Hardan, former minister and leading member of the Syrian Nationalist Party and the Canadian authorities as well, carried out investigation with one Khudor Awarka, the official Syrian National Party in Canada. Further to that, investigations took place in the United States and Canada with a number of the "Free National Current" followers which is led by MP Michel Aoun. In the outcome of these investigations, information and confessions related to the case of the assassination of MP and Minister Pierre Gemayel, has been extracted and that the American and Canadian authorities these information to the Lebanese government that used in the investigation of the assassination, and reached an important thread task brought to give the orders to raid a number of houses and warehouses belonging to the elements in the Syrian National Party in the area of Koura in North Lebanon, yesterday. (Emphasis mine.)

At a press conference held yesterday evening, Qanso said that the Internal Security Forces carried out a surprise raids on the National elements Koura, led to "the arrest of seven comrades." He assured that the confiscation of explosives and explosive devices and timing" are kept since the 1980s after ceasing the participation in the resistance against Israel ... And we kept them with us as reserve weapon for any later role in the resistance." Qanso described the confiscated weapons as "weapons of individual needed for party member due to the exposed security situation" in Lebanon. And confiscation of weapons and explosives coincides with the severe intense of political crisis in Lebanon between the parliamentary majority opposing Damascus and the opposition that includes Syrian loyalist parties, amongst them, the Syrian Social National Party.

Qanso condemned the raids and warned the security services of "excessive reckless," and threatened that "there are limits to the patience of the nationalists", without giving further details, and enrolled what has happened in the framework of the "incitement" of the opposition that, since the beginning of this month, has started an open stay-in strike to overdraw the government. Qanso denounced the "campaign of rumours trying to give the impression that there is a link between the raids and security events that took place in Lebanon."

Lebanon witnessed, in the last two years, a series of explosions and assassinations took six dignitary figures opposes Syria, notably former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri February 14, 2005, the latest Minister Pierre Gemayel on November 21.

The Lebanese militias handed over their weapons to the state after the end of the civil war (1975 - 1990) except for "Hezbollah" Shiite who retained under the title of resisting Israel."

New Report/Chart: "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006"

By Evan Kohlmann

A new report is now available for download from Globalterroralert.com titled "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006." The report details the evolving structure of Iraq's Sunni-led insurgency and includes a chart laying out the various relationships between these groups. The insurgent organizations profiled include Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq", the Ansar al-Sunnah Army, the Islamic Army of Iraq (IAI), the Mujahideen Army, the Al-Fatihin Army, and Jund al-Sahaba.

Click to download "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006" from Globalterroralert.com

Additional info on Syria's nuclear program

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for The Examiner expanding on my recent post on the state of Syria's nuclear program.
Here's an excerpt; you can read the whole article here.:

WASHINGTON - The Iraq Survey Group is calling for open negotiations with Syria, but new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program.

The first signs appeared in 2003 when the Russian Foreign Ministry inadvertently revealed that a Russian-Syrian agreement for the delivery of a nuclear power plant in an undisclosed Syrian location had been signed.

In 2004, Syrian President Bashar Assad made a point to say that Syria would not dispose of its WMD program until Israel did the same. “Since some of my country is occupied,” Assad added, “Syria can legitimately use all the necessary means to liberate its territories.”

German magazine Der Spiegel revealed in March 2004 that Swedish authorities and the CIA were investigating a very likely Syrian nuclear program secretly developed in Homs in the northern part of the country. That July, investigators looking into the Pakistani nuclear network of A.Q. Khan pointed out that Syria may have procured centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to produce a bomb.

This fact was confirmed in May 2006 in a declassified report to the U.S. Congress on the acquisition of technology relating to weapons of mass destruction. Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Syria also got help from Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Abu Sayyaf Chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani Reported Killed

By Zachary Abuza

Yesterday the Philippine military announced that the body of Abu Sayyaf chieftain, Khadaffy Janjalani, had been found buried in the jungles outside of Kabuntakas village in Patikul town, on Jolo Island, an ASG stronghold off south-western Mindanao. The exhumed body is now undergoing DNA testing. There have been a number of occasions that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has asserted that it had killed a member of the ASG or Jemaah Islamiyah, only to later retract it. If this assertion is true, then it is a very important break in the campaign against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Janjalani is the younger brother of the group’s founder Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani, an associate of Osama bin Laden’s, who was killed in 1998. He had worked assiduously since 2002 to bring the group back into the jihadi fold. Since early 2004, the group has shunned its high profile and lucrative kidnappings of foreigners and adopted a campaign of bombings. The most infamous case was the February 2004 bombing of the SuperFerry that killed over 100 people. It launched the Valentine’s Day bombings across three cities in February 2005 and a host of smaller bombings in Mindanao in 2005-06. Starting in 2002, JI reached out to the ASG and began training with them in MILF camps in Mindanao. In November 2005 the MILF forced Janjalani and the two most radioactive of the JI members out of their territory and they retreated to Jolo. A show of force of ASG in Indanan town in central Jolo in July 2006 led to the current offensive.

The 31 year-old Janjalani has been on the US Government’s most wanted terrorist list since 2001 and has a $5 million bounty on his head for his role in the 2000 and 2001 kidnappings that led to the death of several American nationals.

The (AFP) launched Operation Ultimatum in early August 2006 to finish off some 120-200 militants under Janjalani’s control. In addition, they are thought to be accompanied by six members of Jemaah Islamiyah including the two Bali bombers, Dulmatin and Umar Patek. To date there are well over 7,500 AFP in Jolo. They are assisted by a small number of US Special Forces who have been training and providing their AFP counterparts with critically needed intelligence. The AFP claims to have lost nearly 20 soldiers and marines, and another 90 wounded in the campaign. The AFP estimated that some 50 rebels had been killed though only 13 bodies had been found. At one point the AFP claimed that 80 rebels had been killed. The terrain is very mountainous and covered in a dense jungle canopy.

Since August, there have been some successes. In Early September the AFP claimed that Janjalani and Umar Patek had been wounded in the fighting, though offered no proof. The AFP discovered a bomb factory and seized almost 6,000 blasting caps, ten sacks of ammonium nitrate and other bomb-making materials. They also captured Dulmatin's wife Istiada Oemar Sovie, and two of his children, which led to retaliatory bombings in October 2006. There were other seizures of explosives, and at least four ASG members who were involved in the 2000 and 2001 hostage taking events in the Philippines and Malaysia were arrested. Amongst the most important arrests was of Uktud Bayro in late October. Bayro, who was based on Tawi Tawi, was a key logistician in getting Indonesians and Malaysian members of JI in and out of Mindanao and Jolo.

Even with Janjalani eliminated, there are still a number of ASG leaders at large. They include:

• Jainal Antel Sali Jr. @ Abu Soliaman
• Isnilon Hapilon @ Salahuddin
• Radullan Sahiron @ Commander Putol
• Osman aka Usman @ Rizal
• Abu Jumdail @ Dr. Abu
• Albader Parad
• Wahab Opao @ Abu Fatima
• Jundam Jamalul @ Black Killer
• Borhan Mundus
• Ustadz Hatta Haipe
• Sahiron
• Jeqi @ Zaqqi
• Suhod Tanadjalan @ Commander Suhod

Jainal Antel Sali (Abu Soliaman), Isnilon Hapilon, and Radullan Sahiron (Commander Putol) are thought to be the three most important leaders. One Philippine press outlet has already reported that Radullan Sahiroin had been elected to take over the ASG. Previously, there were unconfirmed reports that Isnilon Hapilon had returned to the nearby island of Basilan. Little is known about the inner dynamics of the ASG. The ASG is not a cohesive organization with a clear command and control. The various commanders have significant autonomy, though they have displayed the capacity to coordinate activities and operations. While the death of Janjalani would be an important morale booster to the Philippine armed forces, it alone will not lead to the end of the ASG, which will continue to be a low-level threat to Philippine security.

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" Urges Immediate Support for Somali Islamists

By Evan Kohlmann

In a statement issued yesterday, the Al-Qaida-led "Islamic State of Iraq" urged Muslims around the world to stand behind the retreating Islamic Courts militia in Somalia--including with "money, weapons, and men." According to the statement from Al-Qaida's "Islamic State":

"...Major battles are now taking place between the Crusaders and the Soldiers of Allah in the Muslim land of Somalia, with the approval of the apostates in the caretaker Somali government and with the support of the alliance of crusader nations--at their head, the White House administration in Washington. The blood of Muslims is being spilled there, and their houses and villages are being destroyed. Thousands of their women, children, elderly are being expelled and left homeless, and this is only happening because they are Muslims... The Islamic State of Iraq calls upon all Muslims to stand with their brothers in Somalia, to support them with money, weapons, and men, and to pray for them that Allah grants them victory over their enemies..."

Pajamas Media: Why Ethiopia is Winning in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Wednesday, I had an article at Pajamas Media that discusses the reasons for Ethiopia's surprisingly successful military campaign against the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Somalia. (The previous conventional wisdom that I received from trusted military intelligence sources was that the ICU was likely to defeat the Ethiopian military and overrun the secular transitional federal government, which was then holed up in the south-central Somali city of Baidoa.) An excerpt:

The American intelligence officer who earlier predicted the transitional government's defeat tells Pajamas Media that there are two major reasons why both he and the ICU underestimated the Ethiopian military.

First, Ethiopia's air power was decisive. Over the weekend, Ethiopian jets attacked several airports used by the ICU, and struck recruiting centers and other strategic targets in ICU-run towns. Professor [Abdiweli] Ali reports that the ICU's shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons are unable to hit Ethiopia's aircraft at high altitudes. While the ICU may have some surface-to-air missiles, these devices would be quite old -- and complex Soviet weaponry tends to degrade.

But even more important than the fighter jets, the intelligence officer said, is Ethiopia's use of Mi-24 Hind helicopter gun ships that can target the ICU's ground forces. While the ICU might use rocket-propelled grenades against helicopters, as we saw in the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, thus far the ICU claims to have shot down a single Ethiopian helicopter.

Second, the military intelligence officer said that he underestimated Ethiopia's willingness to commit to the fight against the ICU. "This campaign is far more far-sighted than we expected," he said. "They didn't just do this on the fly; they had to have been planning this for several weeks. This is a major commitment."

One major development since my story was posted is that the ICU has now surrendered Mogadishu to the transitional government. For an excellent summary, see Bill Roggio's post on the ICU's fall. I spoke with a military intelligence source yesterday who emphasized the importance of not getting "too cocky" about the Ethiopians' success, because a number of things could still go wrong. The reports of ICU forces repeatedly dispersing without a fight, coupled with the rhetoric coming from ICU leadership, suggests that the group is planning on turning to insurgent fighting. My source also expressed concerns that the transitional government may not have enough forces to hold cities that it captured during this military campaign, and that he's unsure how long the Ethiopians can sustain the campaign.

There is still much work to be done to ensure that Somalia doesn't backslide and again become a haven for jihadists. But it's clear that the ICU is now giving up on the army vs. army phase of combat, an outcome that did not appear inevitable at the outset.

The Lessons of 2006

By Douglas Farah

The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.

The most obvious example is the Islamist triumph in Somalia, begun in the middle of the year, yet receiving virtually no serious policy attention until very recently. It is hard to fathom why a self-proclaimed Islamist-Salafist movement, clear it is aims, could be viewed as a secondary concern. While the bedrock support for the movements is clan-based and the Islamic Courts enjoy some popular support for restoring law and order, there appears to have been little creative thinking as to how to counter-balance the more radical elements.

Now we face a series of bad options. Ethiopia may drive the Islamist groups out of Mogadishu, but Somalia is already viewed by much of the Islamist community as another attempt to establish the beginnings of the Caliphate. Foreign fighters, along with the Somalis, will likely prolong the fight through guerrilla warfare long into the future. It sets up a clear (in the _jihadi_ mind, at least) conflict between Christian/Jewish Crusaders and Islam, a huge drawing card for the Islamist movement. This means the whole Horn of Africa is now in danger of a spreading war that can, in the end, only help those who profit from chaos and unaccountability.

By failing to see what was happening in Somalia, and failing to act once it was clear even from far outside, what was happening, we allowed the Islamist project to expand it ways it predicted it would, giving not only physical sanctuary to the enemy but a huge psychological victory as well. Hard to imagine how that happened, after the lessons Afghanistan supposedly taught us. My entire blog is here.

FARC Attack

By Aaron Mannes

On Saturday, the FARC lured a unit of elite Colombian soldiers into an ambush near the town of La Julia. In a day of fighting, 14 soldiers were killed. In Colombia’s long war with the FARC, incidents like this are not uncommon. On November 1 in the town of Tieradentro 17 police officers were killed in a mortar attack. On October 19, a car bomb detonated at a military university in Bogota, where the head of the army was giving a speech – 23 were injured. As painful as these losses are, 575 members of Colombia’s security forces have been killed in fighting with the FARC in 2006, they are inevitable consequences of the Colombian military’s success in its counter-insurgency against the FARC. As the security situation has improved, government forces operate in smaller units and drive deeper into FARC territory. Small units operating deep in enemy territory become vulnerable to ambush. These ambushes play into the FARC’s political strategy, undermining Colombian unity in confronting the FARC by sowing doubts about the government’s ability to defeat the FARC. Nonetheless, these attacks should be seen for what they are – tactical successes by the FARC in the context of a strategic retreat.

To read the full post visit my blog.

Sikh Militants with RDX: Dangerous Combination for India’s Security

By Animesh Roul

At least three suspected militants affiliated to International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF-Rode) were arrested from different locations on Dec. 24 in Jalandhar (Punjab) along with approx. 11 kg of RDX and other ammunitions. Punjab police sources opined that the explosives were to be used for carrying out disruptive activities during the forthcoming State Assembly election. The militants were identified by the investigating agencies. Jaswinder Singh was arrested from the Chhotti Baradari area with two kg of RDX and a hand grenade. Amolak Singh and Paramjit Singh Dhaddi were arrested with three kgs and six kgs of RDX hand grenades, detonators respectively from undisclosed locations.

The Khalistran separatist movement of 1980s though suppressed strong-handedly by State agencies later in that decade, often shows its ugly head in India, with splinter groups still active in foreign land and with suspected ISI’s ‘arms and alms’. May last year (2005), Couple of bombs went off in two movie theaters in New Delhi during screenings of the controversial movie Jo Bole So Nihaal (Sikh War Cry). Who can forget the 1984- Operation Blue Star when the Indian army stormed the Golden Temple in Amritsar, Punjab – considered the holy seat of Sikhism – to flush out separatists fighting for a so called Khalistan homeland. Subsequent to the Operation, then-prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her personal Sikh bodyguards. What happened there after is history though.

In the past, various interrogation reports suggested remnants of Punjab militancy have been under constant pressure from Pakistan’s ISI to carry out operations against India and to revive insurgency once again in Punjab, which is a bordering and Strategic State. A list of these groups is given below. This is an excerpt from an article written in August 2005 in SSPC’s Opinion/Analysis Section. The author and the editor/publisher had received frantic phone calls from London and elsewhere from sympathizers of the movement lodging their protest against the content.

Al-Qaida in Iraq Announces "Mighty Raid on the Soldiers of the Crusaders and the Apostates"

By Evan Kohlmann

In response to yesterday's audio message from Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, commander (or "emir") of the Al-Qaida-led "Islamic State of Iraq", Al-Qaida and its Iraqi insurgent coalition partners have announced the start of a "Mighty Raid on the Soldiers of the Crusaders and Apostates." A statement circulated today by fighters loyal to the "Islamic State" declared, "We are at your service, Our Emir" and indicated that "new strikes by the legions of mujahideen--at their head, the Martyr Brigades, the Anti-Aircraft Brigades, the Assault Brigades, and the Fixed Weapons Brigades--are in progress targeting the fortresses of the crusaders and apostates."

While the statement did not list any specific targets, there are general ongoing concerns about Baghdad's international zone, otherwise known as the "Green Zone." Only two months ago, the U.S. military announced that it had dismantled an Al-Qaida cell in Baghdad that managed to infiltrate the high-security Green Zone and was "in the final stages" of preparing to launch suicide bomb attacks.

Iran Sanctions: The UN Finally Acts –But Much too Softly

By Victor Comras

The UN Security Council finally acted and imposed a limited set of sanctions on Iran for its continued defiance of IAEA norms re uranium enrichment. I have long argued that sanctions will be needed to turn Iran around. But, the sanctions measures adopted today by the UN Security Council (res 1737 (2006) were forged, not on the basis of what might work, but rather on the lowest common denominator basis achievable among the Perm Five. While they place some pressure on Iran there is good reason to doubt that they will prove sufficient to convince Iran to change course. Further measures will, most likely, be necessary. Nevertheless, this limited first step is better than no step at all.

Sanctions can be very useful tools when carefully crafted, used wisely, and in conjunction with other measures and policies designed to achieve clear objectives. I believe that substantive economic and trade sanctions could be used effectively to dissuade Iran from continuing to pursue its nuclear weapons program. Iran’s economy is very fragile, and the current economic situation has already created growing internal opposition to the policies of Iran’s erratic President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But the measures so far adopted are not designed to disrupt or distress Iran’s economy or normal trade and business activities. Nor do they penalize Iran’s leaders. Rather, they are directed only at hampering (they certainly won’t stop) Iran’s access to nuclear material and technology. They are unlikely to foster increased domestic pressure on the Ahmadinejad government to change course.

The sanctions are very narrowly targeted. They direct all countries to freeze the assets of 10 Iranian entities and 12 individuals associated with Iran’s centrifuge programs, its heavy water reactor at Arak and its pilot uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The 12 individuals include a vice president of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and officials associated with the Arak and Natanz plants. The measures also impose a limited ban on materials and technology that could contribute to “enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water related activities, or to the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems.” One should note, however, that these same items supposedly have already long been restricted under various international agreements such as the Nuclear Supplier Group, the Wassenaar agreement and the NPT itself.

While the Security Council Resolution clearly broadens the obligations on all countries to inhibit Iran’s acquisition of nuclear related materials, it certainly treads lightly -- equipment for light-water reactors is not included, nor is low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel elements. This exempts an $800 million light-water reactor Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr. Each country also remains free to interpret these restrictions for itself and to use its own discretion to determine which items must be barred. They are required only to inform the Security Council of any dual use items they actually export to Iran. I fear that, as with the timid UN sanctions imposed on North Korea (DPRK), the Iran sanctions won't get very much mileage.

It is already clear from Iran’s reaction to the new sanctions, and from the luke warm reception given it by US and other world leaders, that much more will be required to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. In the absence of more stringent Security Council action Europe and Japan must join with the United States in imposing serious trade measures that bring real costs to the Iranian economy for continuing its quest for nuclear weapons.

The Somali War Spills Over

By Douglas Farah

The battle for control of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union has spilled over into an international conflict with Ethiopia and poses a significant threat to the entire Horn of Africa region. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has posted on some of the details of the military activities.

Yesterday Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the ICU leader most closely indentified with al Qaeda and bin Laden, said Somalia was now at war with Ethiopia and that "All Somalis should now take part is this struggle against Ethiopia." The statement came the day after an EU envoy happily proclaimed that both sides had agreed to negotiate an end to the hostilities and that peace was at hand. Someone must be living in an alternate universe where pledges made by radicals with a history of duplicity are viewed binding.

The spread of this war is by design, not accident. In his statement earlier this week (as translated by Laura Mansfieldal Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri went out of his way to signal support for the Islamist movement in Somalia, saying "Brothers in Islam and _jihad_ in Somalia, know that you are the southern garrison of Islam, so don't allow Islam to be attacked from your flank and know that we are with you and the entire Muslim Umah is with you."

The conflict is designed not only to establish a space that can be defined as the beginning of the Islamist Caliphate, a necessary physical space from which to launch succeeding holy wars against the unbelievers. It is also aimed at creating widespread instability in a fragile region in East Africa, rich in mineral resources with weak and corrupt central governments. My full blog is here.

Somalia: Battle for Baidoa Begins, Islamic Courts Employing Feint Tactics

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have been covering the situation in Somalia since early June, when Mogadishu fell to the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU has steadily gained control of strategic cities throughout the country since then, confining its secular rival, the transitional federal government (TFG), to the south-central Somali city of Baidoa. This morning I have a major piece of breaking news over at Pajamas Media, where I reveal that the ICU has begun its final push to take Baidoa. An excerpt:

Baidoa is heavily fortified and protected by a large contingent of Ethiopian troops but its defenses will not hold, intelligence sources tell Pajamas Media. Ethiopia has allied itself with Somalia's embattled transitional federal government.

Reached by Pajamas Media, Dahir Jibreel, the transitional government's permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation, confirmed that a massive offensive is underway. Jibreel said that the ICU launched an "offensive on the seat of the government from three directions: Burkhakabo, Idale and Dinsor."

Jibreel is guardedly optimistic, noting that the Islamic radicals "sustained heavy losses."

"They will overrun Baidoa," a military intelligence officer told Pajamas Media. "It's only a question of when."

It's worth noting that the military intelligence source with whom I spoke believes that the ICU's early attacks on Baidoa -- which got beaten back -- were not intended to take the city, but instead were feint operations designed to make the transitional government and its Ethiopian allies overconfident, and perhaps cause them to advance from their fortified positions. If he is correct that these were feint operations (and this source has been extremely reliable in the past), then the ICU succeeded in driving up the the TFG's confidence. I spoke to a number of sources close to the TFG's leadership this morning, and they were convinced that the TFG is winning.

Fallout from the Ba'asyir Verdict

By Kenneth Conboy

Late on Thursday, the Indonesian Supreme Court overturned the two-year conviction for militant cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. In doing so, the court was saying that the conviction of Ba'asyir was invalid--and his involvement in the 2002 Bali bombing is not proven. The court also ordered the government to "rehabilitate" Ba'asyir's name, though at least one government spokesman on Thursday was insisting that they still viewed Ba'asyir as a terrorist.

Few had anticipated the Supreme Court verdict, though in a sense it is not a surprise. During two separate trials, the Indonesian government prosecutors had put together incredibly weak cases against Ba'asyir. Part of this was blamed on incompetence.

Too, part of their failure to piece together a strong case against Ba'asyir was blamed on an Indonesian regulation that exclude any testimony not given to Indonesian authorities on Indonesian soil. In some cases, the prosecutor's found innovative ways around this regulation. One terrorist held in Singapore, for example, was allowed to testify via closed-circuit television. Another al-Qaeda terrorist, the late Umar Faruq, was quizzed by Indonesian police in Afghanistan who had pragmatically raised an Indonesian flag and designated Faruq's cell as Indonesian territory.

But even more damning testimony from terrorists held overseas--like Hambali, who reportedly gave crticial evidence that dealt with bombings in 2000--never made its way to the court room.

Regardless of where the fault lies, an emboldened Ba'asyir is certain to ratchet up his already fiery rhetoric. Yesterday was definitely two steps backward for Indonesia's counter-terrorist effort.

Zawahiri Uses ISG Report to Call for Negotiations

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In the new tape from al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri that was broadcast today by al-Jazeera, he references the Iraq Study Group report:

Zawahiri said Washington was scrambling for an exit from Iraq and Afghanistan, but was approaching the wrong parties. "Both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to find an exit from the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are still thinking with the same rash mentality and trying to negotiate with some sides to secure your exit but these sides cannot offer you an escape and your attempts will only bring more failure. You are not negotiating with the real powers in the Muslim world and you appear to be heading towards a painful round of negotiations, after which you will forced to talk[ ] to the real forces..." he said.

Zawahiri is, of course, referring to al-Qaeda as the real power that Washington will be forced to talk to. This is not the first time that al-Qaeda has suggested that the United States or other Western powers should engage in talks with them. The terrorist group's first overtures to the West came in April 2004, after the 3/11 bombings seemingly swung the Spanish election and brought to power a Socialist government that promptly withdrew its troops from Iraq. In April 2004, Osama bin Laden offered a truce to European countries that similarly withdrew their forces from Iraq. After that, al-Qaeda leaders frequently spoke of a way out of the conflict in speeches that they directed at the West. Bin Laden did this in his October 2004 video, in which he urged Westerners to "look for [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again." (See my analysis of the video.) Zawahiri then referenced bin Laden's analysis of the conflict with the West in an August 2005 video, where he asked, "Didn't Osama bin Laden tell you that you would never dream of peace until we actually live it in Palestine and before all foreign forces withdraw from the Land of Muhammad?" A number of other Al-Qaeda public statements suggest that the West should choose a course of negotiation and appeasement, including a February 2005 Zawahiri video and a September 2005 Adam Gadahn video.

Negotiation with al-Qaeda is a terrible idea now, just as it was on all the previous occasions that the terrorist group suggested the course. What has changed is the political environment. The Waziristan Accord was a surrender to al-Qaeda and Taliban factions. The world has looked the other way as the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Courts Union rose to power in Somalia, drawing foreign fighters to the country and implementing a strict version of sharia law in the process. The Iraq Study Group frames Iran and Syria as partners for peace in Iraq that need to be engaged, despite both countries' active support for the insurgency. The op-ed pages of major newspapers reveal an increased taste for negotiation with our enemies: witness Jason Burke's call in The Observer for negotiation with the Taliban. We are increasingly in a negotiating mood.

I don't expect the United States to sit down at the negotiating table with Osama bin Laden anytime soon, nor do I expect any major politicians to embrace this view in the next couple of years. Rather, the question in my mind is whether this view will gain enough legitimacy that it is seen as a real alternative, something that those of us in the counterterrorism field have to actively argue against. If the pro-negotiation view does gain legitimacy in this way, it will create further difficulties for the West.

Al Qaeda's Zawahiri Threatens More Attacks on USA, West (updated)

By Jeffrey Imm

UPDATE: Laura Mansfield has a full transcript on her website.

Al-Jazeera has released additional excerpts from Al Qaeda deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri's videotaped message:

Earlier excerpts of Zawahiri's message referenced Hamas and Palestinian government, calling for a renewal of Jihadist activity and Islamism in Palestinian government.

In the latest excerpts of his message, Zawahiri renewed threats against the United States and the West, and also referenced the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Threats Against US and West:
"If we are attacked in our land we shall not stop attacking you in your countries, God willing..." and "As our emir Sheikh Osama bin Laden, God keep him, said, 'Like you bomb, you will be bombed, and like you kill, you will be killed".

Regarding Afghanistan and Iraq:
Zawahiri stated that President Bush was deceiving the American people by telling them he was going after "terrorists" in Afghanistan and Iraq in order to keep them away from the United States. "Your safety lies in the following equation: you will not dream of security until we live secure in Palestine and all Muslim lands," Zawahiri said.
"Both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to find an exit from the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are still thinking with the same rash mentality and trying to negotiate with some sides to secure your exit but these sides cannot offer you an escape and your attempts will only bring more failure."
"You are not negotiating with the real powers in the Muslim world and you appear to be heading towards a painful round of negotiations, after which you will forced to talks to the real forces..." he said.

Regarding Revival of Islamic caliphate:
"I urge the whole Muslim nation to support this fledgling state as it is, God willing, the gateway for the liberation of Palestine and the revival of the Islamic caliphate." "I also urge all my mujahideen brothers in Iraq to join this blessed convoy to save the Iraq caliphate from the shackles of the crusaders and their agents, the traitors who have sold their faith", and in discussing Palestine, stating that it is "the duty of every Muslim" to recover Muslim land."

Criticizing Iraq Shiite Muslim Leaders (he claims oppose Jihad against US):
"How is it possible that jihad against the Jews in Lebanon is in line with Islam but jihad against Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan is taboo"?

Scope of Zawahiri Message
SITE Institute has provided the banner announced on Jihadist websites on Monday, December 18, 2006, advertising the anticipated Zawahiri message as being entitled: "The Truth of the Conflict Between the Muslims and the Infidels".

Sources:
Zawahiri vows attacks on US, slams Hamas - AFP
Qaeda's Zawahri threatens more attacks on West - Reuters
Zawahri: US must negotiate with Al Qaida

The Rationale of the Zawahiri Statements

By Douglas Farah

To many, the statements of al-Zawahiri and other radical Islamists on elections and _jihad_ can be interpreted as the rantings of mad mullahs who hate freedom and the West.

But a careful reading of Islamist texts, provided by such authors as Andrew Bostom and Mary Habek (Knowing the Enemy) show that these reponses are entirely rational within the _jihadi_ world view. This theology and ideology were developed centuries before Israel came into being and long before Western liberal democracies gained currency in the world.

The rationale, taken from Wahhab, Qutb, al Banna and others is simple: Only the Quran, as interpreted by these groups, can guide the world, providing a religious, political and legal handbook that cannot be abridged. Anything that is contrary to these interpretations of Allah's law-including the statements in the Quran itself that speak less harshly of Jews and Christians, deemed to have been made under specific historic conditions no longer applicable-are punishable by death. My entire blog is here.

Al Qaeda Deputy Al-Zawahiri Condemns Palestinian Elections, Urges "Jihad"

By Jeffrey Imm

Al-Jazeera television released an excerpt of Al Qaeda deputy Al-Zawahiri's latest message in a Wednesday morning news bulletin, stating that it will air a longer segment later.

In this morning's excerpt of the latest Al-Zawahiri message, the Al Qaeda deputy stated: "Those who are trying to liberate the Islamic territories through elections based on secular constitutions, or on decisions to hand over Palestine to the Jews, will not liberate one grain of sand of Palestine, but will choke jihad." This is in apparent response to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's proposal for early elections to resolve the conflict between the Fat