8 New Years Eve Bombs Shake Up Bangkok; At Least 2 More Defused

By Zachary Abuza

Six bombs were exploded nearly simultaneously across downtown Bangkok on New Years Eve as revelers began to turnout for dinner and the evening’s festivities. The first bomb exploded at the Victory Monument, an area crowded with food stalls, the terminus for small commuter vans from the northern districts. Subsequent bombings were at crowded locations, but not high profile ones and nowhere where the expat community and tourists would tend to congregate. These included two bombs in Klong Toey and in the parking lot of Bangkok’s largest Mall in an eastern district. The 6th bomb reportedly exploded in the movie theater in Bangkok’s newest and glitziest malls, the Siam Paragon.

Two more bombs were detonated just after midnight, this time in more heavily tourist areas. The first bomb exploded at a popular restaurant near the Pratunam Pier. Five people were wounded, including three foreigners, one of whom had his leg amputated. The second bomb went off in a pedestrian flyover that links two major malls, Central World and Gaesorn Plaza. A major concert that was supposed to take place outside Central World was earlier canceled. In addition, a suspected bomb was found in a crowded bar on Khao San road, the crowded backpacker quarter. A second bomb was found and disarmed at the Lumpini Night Bazaar.

So far there have been only three deaths reported, though there have been at least 38 people wounded.

Coup leader, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has deployed additional soldiers from the 1st Army to Bangkok to help the police patrol the area. Martial law was recently lifted in the capital.

The low profile targets at first led me and other analysts that I spoke with to discount the involvement of Muslim militants from the deep south. The bombs at first seemed intended to provoke a domestic response, but not elicit much in the way of international attention. While I have long argued that they have never taken the option of targeting Bangkok off the table, nor are they ideologically against it, at the time they really don’t need to change their strategy. At this point the insurgents are winning (they certainly are not losing). The southern insurgents clearly have the technical capacity to execute large-scale bombings in Bangkok. On a daily basis they detonate far more powerful bombs than what went off in Bangkok. Yet, to carry out so many bombings would require an infrastructure in Bangkok that few would consider them to have. The bombs were also not like the ones usually employed by southern insurgents, in terms of composition or detonation device. The bombs in the south tend to be larger usually 5kg and often 10-15kg, and cell-phone detonated. The insurgents have tried for mass casualty attacks. The bombs in Bangkok could have been larger; the aim does not yet seem to be to create mass casualties.

While the southern insurgency cannot be ruled out, especially as more attacks on tourist venues were hit later in the evening, the prevailing wind in Bangkok is that the bombings were linked to elite political strife over the 19 September coup. There have been several bombings in Bangkok in the past few years, but all have been linked to elite conflicts, not the insurgency. Currently there are several hypotheses: It could be the police or other forces disgruntled with the military’s takeover. The police are wildly unhappy about the reforms that the military is going to soon force on the police. Yet, one of the bombs was placed at a small police kiosk wounding several police officers. It could have been the work of supporters of Thaksin simply out to discredit and destabilize the Council on National Security (CNS) and the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. Officials from former Prime Minister Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party have denied any involvement in the blasts. It is possible that it is also the military. Some are angry that Sonthi has not gone far enough in consolidating power, others might be frustrated that all legal efforts to go after Thaksin and his allegedly ill-gotten gains have failed. It is telling that unnamed sources from the told The Nation newspaper that the CNS was considering seizing Thaksin’s assets so that he could no longer destabilize the country. And of course, it could be the work of the southern insurgents. They clearly have the technical capacity to do this.

Security was clearly tightened at the new international airport. While it wasn’t in lockdown mode, there was far more security (taxis unable to cue, drop off points one lane further away from the terminal, pre-screening of bags upon entry to the terminal). Two large outdoor concert venues, with some several hundred thousand in attendance, were canceled.

Sky News has reported that one suspect has been arrested, allegedly carrying a bomb at the time. General Sonthi, who was on Haj in Mecca, immediately departed for Thailand.

2007: Strategic Thinking Needed in Fighting Global Jihad

By Jeffrey Imm

The United States of America has some of the smartest leaders in government, military, and business in the world. Yet the American government has failed to collectively use this formidable brain-power 5+ years after the attack by Jihadists on the American homeland to develop a truly strategic plan to fight the global threat of Jihad and Islamist extremism. In one of the most complex wars in American history, rather than starting with holistic, big-picture thinking towards the challenges and prioritizing resources and actions accordingly, America has spent much of the past five years after 9/11 in reactive and bureaucratic churning.

The recent reports about a lack of understanding of the role of individual Islamic groups in Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda by the new House Intelligence Panel Chairman and lack of knowledge of Sunni/Shiite groups by some FBI counterterrorism executives are not "isolated incidents". Nor is the limited number of FBI agents with Arabic language skills - five years after 9/11 - an "isolated problem". While these stories may exaggerate the limitations and educational challenges in such groups, they highlight the problem for American government in prioritization of education and resources, due to lack of a fundamental blueprint and analysis in understanding the larger problem of Jihad and global Islamist extremism. This lack of a blueprint prevents the government leadership from effectively evaluating options and priorities.

Recently, Air Force Brig. Gen. Mark O. Schissler has stated that the fight against Islamist extremism will be a "generational war" with both military and ideological components comparable to the Cold War against Communism. However, what Brig. General Schissler does not share is the national blueprint that America needs to be using for this generational war, that has been reviewed and analyzed by national leaders and scholars of Jihad and global Islamist extremism, that is needed for such a long-term effort, which is vastly more than simply military and "counterterrorism" activities. As Douglas Farah has pointed out, "[t]here is very little work being done in looking at the 10 to 20 year horizon on where Islamists are now", but mostly 3 to 5 year horizon thinking typically done n the Pentagon and Intelligence Community. This is yet another symptom of the larger problem in the lack of any larger, overall national strategic blueprint that focuses on all aspects of the global challenge.

The American government has been able to develop a group to investigate and issue a report on the 9/11 attacks, resulting in a 9/11 Commission Report, and now an Iraq Study Group, but it has yet to develop a cross-section of American scholars and leaders to research and develop a strategy on national countermeasures against global Jihad and Islamist extremist activity. There is no "Islamist Study Group" or "Jihadist Study Group" as a blueprint for government countermeasures in the larger global war, which requires greater political fortitude to face up to. As a result, American policy is focused on individual tactics in military battles in individual countries, and strategic assumptions related to "counterterrorism" and "homeland security" tactics - all of which, while more politically correct, provide a false sense of accomplishment. None of these tactical focuses can replace the need for a larger, strategic vision that encompasses all tactical aspects of the war, including but not limited to: cultural, demographic, economic, energy, educational, communications, intelligence (domestic and foreign), preparedness, law enforcement, and military areas.

Executing Saddam on Eid al-Adha is a Mistake

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Saddam Hussein was executed this morning (6:00 a.m. Baghdad time), on Eid al-Adha. The timing of his execution was a mistake. I don't expect a surge in violence in Iraq because pretty much all the remaining Ba'athists there have professed a conversion to radical Islam, and there have been no serious efforts by jihadist factions to condemn the execution. Saddam does have a following among ex-pat Ba'athists in Jordan and Syria, but they don't have the infrastructure to carry out retaliatory attacks.

However, the timing of Saddam's execution has a deleterious effect that is more difficult to measure empirically. Eid al-Adha is one of Islam's two most important holidays, and today throughout the Muslim world the holiday is being overshadowed by Saddam's execution. A source in the Muslim community reports that in Saudi Arabia, some Muslims simultaneously watched the Eid salat on one television channel and Saddam's execution on another. One woman in Saudi Arabia commented that she found this "unsettling," and not because she has any warm feelings for Saddam. Rather, for many Middle Easterners, Saddam's execution seemingly intrudes on what should be a time of celebration for them: it is an intrusion because the Iraq war is extremely unpopular throughout the Middle East, and the televised execution is a stark reminder that the war is still raging. (Reuters also reports on Middle Eastern consternation about the timing of the execution.) The same Muslim source speculates that for other Middle Easterners, the execution may be a painful reminder that they have little recourse against the dictatorial regimes that rule them without the United States. The negative symbolism is heightened by linking the execution to Eid.

One final negative about the timing of the execution is that it may contribute to sectarian divisions in Iraq. Some Sunnis are upset about the execution because Saddam is a Sunni, and they feel that the new Iraq is dominated by Shias. On the other hand, an Iraqi-American source who is in contact with a great deal of people in Iraq tells me that some Shias believe they are "doubly blessed" on Eid al-Adha because of Saddam's execution. So these sectarian divisions are emphasized by the execution's timing.

Saddam Hussein, Longtime State Sponsor of Terrorism, Executed by Iraqis (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

"Criminal Saddam was hanged to death" - Iraqi state TV. Saddam Hussein was executed around 10 pm ET (Al Arabiya reports the death at 10:05 ET). Two other Hussein-era officials, including his half-brother, have not yet been executed and remain in U.S. custody, according to Iraqi officials quoted by CNN (edited). The Associated Press has a summary of the convictions and sentences in the Hussein trial.

Saddam Hussein was a longtime state sponsor of terrorism, and during his reign, Iraq was listed by the State Department on the official list of "state sponsors." Iraq was added to that list in 1990 following its invasion of Kuwait and also for providing bases to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Palestine Liberation Front (PLF), and the Abu Nidal organization (ANO). Following the 2003 liberation of Iraq from Hussein's rule, U.S. sanctions applicable to state sponsors of terrorism against Iraq were suspended, and President Bush announced the removal of Iraq from the list on September 25, 2004.

More details of his ties to terrorists have been developed since the 2003 liberation. Saddam funded Palestinian suicide bombers through an account in Rafidain Bank in Jordan (see chart of the payments released by a U.S. House committee in January 2005 only to this site). He also funded the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group in the Philippines. I discussed other possible ties to Palestinian and other terrorist groups in numerous posts, which are best summarized in one post on November 3 and another on March 31.

The execution will have no impact on the current situation in Iraq, other than being cited as another excuse for more terrorism by Sunni insurgents. But Saddam was a mass murderer and a tyrant. To the best of my knowledge, he was the only ruler in the past 50 years who used chemical weapons on his own people and against another country. In a statement, President Bush noted that Saddam received the fair trial that he denied his victims. You can see a summary of his atrocities on the Fox News site, which reports, "Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result of Saddam's actions." His death is a victory for the rule of law in Iraq and for the civilized world.

Saddam at the gallows (AFP) and compilation of pictures of 148 Iraqis in Dujail executed by Saddam Hussein (Sky News)

US News and World Report "Best Blogs of '06" Lists Counterterrorism Blog

By Jeffrey Imm

US News and World Report listed the Counterterrorism Blog as one of the "Best Blogs of '06" for best "investigative reporting" and "jihadist" research information. As cited by David E. Kaplan, while there are many web sites with "instant experts in counterterrorism", on the Counterterrorism Blog - "here's the real deal: some two dozen analysts, scholars, and investigators who have tracked terrorism around the world for years."

Somalia's Terrorists

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Recently two prominent left-wing bloggers, Matthew Yglesias and Spencer Ackerman, have questioned whether the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) -- the radical group that Ethiopia is currently battling in Somalia -- is really linked to terrorism. Yglesias writes, "What are the names of these people the Islamists are sheltering? How many of them are there? Who are they? What have they done? What diplomatic efforts has the United States made to get the Islamists to turn them over? Pardon me for being cynical, but in this day and age my suspicion is that names aren't involved in these articles but [sic] there's no one in particular the Bush administration is worrying about and this is mostly hype and paranoia." And Ackerman, after a grand total of two telephone calls to public affairs officers at State and the DNI, concludes, "The administration believes three terrorists are in Somalia, with unclear or unstated connections to the ICU. Then there's the issue of Aweys, whom the U.S. isn't officially making an issue, for unclear reasons. Decide for yourself if this is a good reason to instigate a regional war."

In the first place, the criteria these two gentlemen use is flawed: there's no reason to make the names of specific terrorists the determinative measurement, rather than the seventeen active terrorist training camps in the country, the al-Qaeda-like propaganda tapes that the ICU has been producing, and the conspicuous presence of foreign fighters. But beyond that, this also illustrates one of the flaws of making the study of terrorism all about the Bush administration. Either the ICU is a threat or it isn't: two phone calls to a couple of public affairs officers with no expertise in Somalia is unlikely to resolve the matter. The fact is that an examination of information that is publicly available would quickly turn up links between the ICU and terrorism -- including the names that Yglesias and Ackerman desire.

As an initial matter, the precursor group to the ICU, al-Ittihad al-Islamiyya (AIAI) hasn't abandoned its support for terrorism. A look at the biographies of the fourteen high-value terrorists who were recently transferred to Gitmo bears this out: the section on the last detainee, Gouled Hassan Dourad, shows that in recent years AIAI has planned to attack the U.S. military base in Djibouti, shoot down Ethiopian airliners, and kidnap Western NGO workers in Somalia.

The United Nations released reports in both 2004 and 2006 that support the view that there is a substantial presence of foreign fighters in Somalia that are facilitating terrorist training and adopting an international jihadist agenda. (Foreign fighters do not comprise the majority of ICU fighters, but are still a significant presence). For specific names of terrorists, we can turn to reports produced by the International Crisis Group -- an organization that tends to be critical of the U.S. role in Somalia.

The ICG’s May 2002 report Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State names four key leaders in the AIAI terrorist group: Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Hassan Turki, Mogadishu bin Laden associate Sheikh Omar Faruuq, and Hassan Turabi associate Ibrahim Disuqi.

The ICG’s July 2005 report Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds? notes the following:

- Aden Hashi 'Ayro, who trained in an al-Qaeda camp in Afghanistan, has assassinated four foreign aid workers. (I have a list of people killed by 'Ayro's group that shows there have, in fact, been far more assassinations than this.) The report notes that 'Ayro's network may be helping al-Qaeda operate in Somalia with logistics, jobs, identities and protection. (A quote from the report as a caveat: "Although evidence linking 'Ayro to al-Qaeda appears to be largely circumstantial, the allegations are serious enough to merit a brief review of al-Qaeda's involvement in Somalia over the years and the scope of its current presence there.")

U.S. Investigations Lead to Arrests in Gemayel Assassination Case

By Andrew Cochran

The following article appeared in the "Alsyassa" newspaper in Lebanon last week and has been translated to English by a friend and highly reliable source. The article points to investigations in the U.S. which led to the arrests of Syrian-allied suspects in Lebanon:

"The investigation into the assassination of Pierre Gemayel led to the detection and seizure of weapons and explosives detonators and the arrest of seven of the Beirut-Syrian nationalists

The Lebanese authorities confiscated weapons and explosives yesterday of several locations of the Syrian Social National Party, the pro-Syria in the Koura in northern Lebanon. A security source said that the raid and confiscation included locations and houses scattered in several villages in the Koura province, south-east Tripoli, most prominent Kosba, Shekka and Afessdeeq. As to the Directorate General of the Internal Security Forces assured in a statement that “the arrest of a number of people" during raids and the confiscation of weapons and explosives in Koura.

The source explained that one of its unit raided several houses in the Koura found inside "a large quantity of explosives with electric detonators used for the bombing and stopwatches to control the timing of the bombing in addition to large quantities of weapons." Authorized Lebanese security sources revealed to al-Seyassah that, during the raids on two stolen cars caches inside one of the Syrian Social National Party, working to identify their owners, have confiscated the equivalent of two truckloads of weapons.

Well aware those, the official of the SSNP Tony Mansour and his father were arrested during the raid and seized a gun inside the car of the first, and that security forces cordoned off the main party headquarters in Beirut. Meanwhile Party leader, Ali Qanso, admitted the arrest of seven official Syrian Social nationalists and the confiscation of explosives in northern Lebanon, claiming that they were kept since "the 1980s when he was involved in the resistance" against Israel.

Informed sources declared to al-Seyassah that, before 15 days, the National Security in the United States investigated Halim Hardan, student at the University of St. Louis, son of current MP Assaad Hardan, former minister and leading member of the Syrian Nationalist Party and the Canadian authorities as well, carried out investigation with one Khudor Awarka, the official Syrian National Party in Canada. Further to that, investigations took place in the United States and Canada with a number of the "Free National Current" followers which is led by MP Michel Aoun. In the outcome of these investigations, information and confessions related to the case of the assassination of MP and Minister Pierre Gemayel, has been extracted and that the American and Canadian authorities these information to the Lebanese government that used in the investigation of the assassination, and reached an important thread task brought to give the orders to raid a number of houses and warehouses belonging to the elements in the Syrian National Party in the area of Koura in North Lebanon, yesterday. (Emphasis mine.)

At a press conference held yesterday evening, Qanso said that the Internal Security Forces carried out a surprise raids on the National elements Koura, led to "the arrest of seven comrades." He assured that the confiscation of explosives and explosive devices and timing" are kept since the 1980s after ceasing the participation in the resistance against Israel ... And we kept them with us as reserve weapon for any later role in the resistance." Qanso described the confiscated weapons as "weapons of individual needed for party member due to the exposed security situation" in Lebanon. And confiscation of weapons and explosives coincides with the severe intense of political crisis in Lebanon between the parliamentary majority opposing Damascus and the opposition that includes Syrian loyalist parties, amongst them, the Syrian Social National Party.

Qanso condemned the raids and warned the security services of "excessive reckless," and threatened that "there are limits to the patience of the nationalists", without giving further details, and enrolled what has happened in the framework of the "incitement" of the opposition that, since the beginning of this month, has started an open stay-in strike to overdraw the government. Qanso denounced the "campaign of rumours trying to give the impression that there is a link between the raids and security events that took place in Lebanon."

Lebanon witnessed, in the last two years, a series of explosions and assassinations took six dignitary figures opposes Syria, notably former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri February 14, 2005, the latest Minister Pierre Gemayel on November 21.

The Lebanese militias handed over their weapons to the state after the end of the civil war (1975 - 1990) except for "Hezbollah" Shiite who retained under the title of resisting Israel."

New Report/Chart: "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006"

By Evan Kohlmann

A new report is now available for download from Globalterroralert.com titled "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006." The report details the evolving structure of Iraq's Sunni-led insurgency and includes a chart laying out the various relationships between these groups. The insurgent organizations profiled include Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq", the Ansar al-Sunnah Army, the Islamic Army of Iraq (IAI), the Mujahideen Army, the Al-Fatihin Army, and Jund al-Sahaba.

Click to download "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006" from Globalterroralert.com

Additional info on Syria's nuclear program

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for The Examiner expanding on my recent post on the state of Syria's nuclear program.
Here's an excerpt; you can read the whole article here.:

WASHINGTON - The Iraq Survey Group is calling for open negotiations with Syria, but new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program.

The first signs appeared in 2003 when the Russian Foreign Ministry inadvertently revealed that a Russian-Syrian agreement for the delivery of a nuclear power plant in an undisclosed Syrian location had been signed.

In 2004, Syrian President Bashar Assad made a point to say that Syria would not dispose of its WMD program until Israel did the same. “Since some of my country is occupied,” Assad added, “Syria can legitimately use all the necessary means to liberate its territories.”

German magazine Der Spiegel revealed in March 2004 that Swedish authorities and the CIA were investigating a very likely Syrian nuclear program secretly developed in Homs in the northern part of the country. That July, investigators looking into the Pakistani nuclear network of A.Q. Khan pointed out that Syria may have procured centrifuges capable of enriching uranium to produce a bomb.

This fact was confirmed in May 2006 in a declassified report to the U.S. Congress on the acquisition of technology relating to weapons of mass destruction. Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Syria also got help from Saddam Hussein’s regime.

Abu Sayyaf Chieftain Khadaffy Janjalani Reported Killed

By Zachary Abuza

Yesterday the Philippine military announced that the body of Abu Sayyaf chieftain, Khadaffy Janjalani, had been found buried in the jungles outside of Kabuntakas village in Patikul town, on Jolo Island, an ASG stronghold off south-western Mindanao. The exhumed body is now undergoing DNA testing. There have been a number of occasions that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has asserted that it had killed a member of the ASG or Jemaah Islamiyah, only to later retract it. If this assertion is true, then it is a very important break in the campaign against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Janjalani is the younger brother of the group’s founder Abdurajak Abubakar Janjalani, an associate of Osama bin Laden’s, who was killed in 1998. He had worked assiduously since 2002 to bring the group back into the jihadi fold. Since early 2004, the group has shunned its high profile and lucrative kidnappings of foreigners and adopted a campaign of bombings. The most infamous case was the February 2004 bombing of the SuperFerry that killed over 100 people. It launched the Valentine’s Day bombings across three cities in February 2005 and a host of smaller bombings in Mindanao in 2005-06. Starting in 2002, JI reached out to the ASG and began training with them in MILF camps in Mindanao. In November 2005 the MILF forced Janjalani and the two most radioactive of the JI members out of their territory and they retreated to Jolo. A show of force of ASG in Indanan town in central Jolo in July 2006 led to the current offensive.

The 31 year-old Janjalani has been on the US Government’s most wanted terrorist list since 2001 and has a $5 million bounty on his head for his role in the 2000 and 2001 kidnappings that led to the death of several American nationals.

The (AFP) launched Operation Ultimatum in early August 2006 to finish off some 120-200 militants under Janjalani’s control. In addition, they are thought to be accompanied by six members of Jemaah Islamiyah including the two Bali bombers, Dulmatin and Umar Patek. To date there are well over 7,500 AFP in Jolo. They are assisted by a small number of US Special Forces who have been training and providing their AFP counterparts with critically needed intelligence. The AFP claims to have lost nearly 20 soldiers and marines, and another 90 wounded in the campaign. The AFP estimated that some 50 rebels had been killed though only 13 bodies had been found. At one point the AFP claimed that 80 rebels had been killed. The terrain is very mountainous and covered in a dense jungle canopy.

Since August, there have been some successes. In Early September the AFP claimed that Janjalani and Umar Patek had been wounded in the fighting, though offered no proof. The AFP discovered a bomb factory and seized almost 6,000 blasting caps, ten sacks of ammonium nitrate and other bomb-making materials. They also captured Dulmatin's wife Istiada Oemar Sovie, and two of his children, which led to retaliatory bombings in October 2006. There were other seizures of explosives, and at least four ASG members who were involved in the 2000 and 2001 hostage taking events in the Philippines and Malaysia were arrested. Amongst the most important arrests was of Uktud Bayro in late October. Bayro, who was based on Tawi Tawi, was a key logistician in getting Indonesians and Malaysian members of JI in and out of Mindanao and Jolo.

Even with Janjalani eliminated, there are still a number of ASG leaders at large. They include:

• Jainal Antel Sali Jr. @ Abu Soliaman
• Isnilon Hapilon @ Salahuddin
• Radullan Sahiron @ Commander Putol
• Osman aka Usman @ Rizal
• Abu Jumdail @ Dr. Abu
• Albader Parad
• Wahab Opao @ Abu Fatima
• Jundam Jamalul @ Black Killer
• Borhan Mundus
• Ustadz Hatta Haipe
• Sahiron
• Jeqi @ Zaqqi
• Suhod Tanadjalan @ Commander Suhod

Jainal Antel Sali (Abu Soliaman), Isnilon Hapilon, and Radullan Sahiron (Commander Putol) are thought to be the three most important leaders. One Philippine press outlet has already reported that Radullan Sahiroin had been elected to take over the ASG. Previously, there were unconfirmed reports that Isnilon Hapilon had returned to the nearby island of Basilan. Little is known about the inner dynamics of the ASG. The ASG is not a cohesive organization with a clear command and control. The various commanders have significant autonomy, though they have displayed the capacity to coordinate activities and operations. While the death of Janjalani would be an important morale booster to the Philippine armed forces, it alone will not lead to the end of the ASG, which will continue to be a low-level threat to Philippine security.

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" Urges Immediate Support for Somali Islamists

By Evan Kohlmann

In a statement issued yesterday, the Al-Qaida-led "Islamic State of Iraq" urged Muslims around the world to stand behind the retreating Islamic Courts militia in Somalia--including with "money, weapons, and men." According to the statement from Al-Qaida's "Islamic State":

"...Major battles are now taking place between the Crusaders and the Soldiers of Allah in the Muslim land of Somalia, with the approval of the apostates in the caretaker Somali government and with the support of the alliance of crusader nations--at their head, the White House administration in Washington. The blood of Muslims is being spilled there, and their houses and villages are being destroyed. Thousands of their women, children, elderly are being expelled and left homeless, and this is only happening because they are Muslims... The Islamic State of Iraq calls upon all Muslims to stand with their brothers in Somalia, to support them with money, weapons, and men, and to pray for them that Allah grants them victory over their enemies..."

Pajamas Media: Why Ethiopia is Winning in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Wednesday, I had an article at Pajamas Media that discusses the reasons for Ethiopia's surprisingly successful military campaign against the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in Somalia. (The previous conventional wisdom that I received from trusted military intelligence sources was that the ICU was likely to defeat the Ethiopian military and overrun the secular transitional federal government, which was then holed up in the south-central Somali city of Baidoa.) An excerpt:

The American intelligence officer who earlier predicted the transitional government's defeat tells Pajamas Media that there are two major reasons why both he and the ICU underestimated the Ethiopian military.

First, Ethiopia's air power was decisive. Over the weekend, Ethiopian jets attacked several airports used by the ICU, and struck recruiting centers and other strategic targets in ICU-run towns. Professor [Abdiweli] Ali reports that the ICU's shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons are unable to hit Ethiopia's aircraft at high altitudes. While the ICU may have some surface-to-air missiles, these devices would be quite old -- and complex Soviet weaponry tends to degrade.

But even more important than the fighter jets, the intelligence officer said, is Ethiopia's use of Mi-24 Hind helicopter gun ships that can target the ICU's ground forces. While the ICU might use rocket-propelled grenades against helicopters, as we saw in the 1993 Black Hawk Down incident, thus far the ICU claims to have shot down a single Ethiopian helicopter.

Second, the military intelligence officer said that he underestimated Ethiopia's willingness to commit to the fight against the ICU. "This campaign is far more far-sighted than we expected," he said. "They didn't just do this on the fly; they had to have been planning this for several weeks. This is a major commitment."

One major development since my story was posted is that the ICU has now surrendered Mogadishu to the transitional government. For an excellent summary, see Bill Roggio's post on the ICU's fall. I spoke with a military intelligence source yesterday who emphasized the importance of not getting "too cocky" about the Ethiopians' success, because a number of things could still go wrong. The reports of ICU forces repeatedly dispersing without a fight, coupled with the rhetoric coming from ICU leadership, suggests that the group is planning on turning to insurgent fighting. My source also expressed concerns that the transitional government may not have enough forces to hold cities that it captured during this military campaign, and that he's unsure how long the Ethiopians can sustain the campaign.

There is still much work to be done to ensure that Somalia doesn't backslide and again become a haven for jihadists. But it's clear that the ICU is now giving up on the army vs. army phase of combat, an outcome that did not appear inevitable at the outset.

The Lessons of 2006

By Douglas Farah

The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.

The most obvious example is the Islamist triumph in Somalia, begun in the middle of the year, yet receiving virtually no serious policy attention until very recently. It is hard to fathom why a self-proclaimed Islamist-Salafist movement, clear it is aims, could be viewed as a secondary concern. While the bedrock support for the movements is clan-based and the Islamic Courts enjoy some popular support for restoring law and order, there appears to have been little creative thinking as to how to counter-balance the more radical elements.

Now we face a series of bad options. Ethiopia may drive the Islamist groups out of Mogadishu, but Somalia is already viewed by much of the Islamist community as another attempt to establish the beginnings of the Caliphate. Foreign fighters, along with the Somalis, will likely prolong the fight through guerrilla warfare long into the future. It sets up a clear (in the _jihadi_ mind, at least) conflict between Christian/Jewish Crusaders and Islam, a huge drawing card for the Islamist movement. This means the whole Horn of Africa is now in danger of a spreading war that can, in the end, only help those who profit from chaos and unaccountability.

By failing to see what was happening in Somalia, and failing to act once it was clear even from far outside, what was happening, we allowed the Islamist project to expand it ways it predicted it would, giving not only physical sanctuary to the enemy but a huge psychological victory as well. Hard to imagine how that happened, after the lessons Afghanistan supposedly taught us. My entire blog is here.

FARC Attack

By Aaron Mannes

On Saturday, the FARC lured a unit of elite Colombian soldiers into an ambush near the town of La Julia. In a day of fighting, 14 soldiers were killed. In Colombia’s long war with the FARC, incidents like this are not uncommon. On November 1 in the town of Tieradentro 17 police officers were killed in a mortar attack. On October 19, a car bomb detonated at a military university in Bogota, where the head of the army was giving a speech – 23 were injured. As painful as these losses are, 575 members of Colombia’s security forces have been killed in fighting with the FARC in 2006, they are inevitable consequences of the Colombian military’s success in its counter-insurgency against the FARC. As the security situation has improved, government forces operate in smaller units and drive deeper into FARC territory. Small units operating deep in enemy territory become vulnerable to ambush. These ambushes play into the FARC’s political strategy, undermining Colombian unity in confronting the FARC by sowing doubts about the government’s ability to defeat the FARC. Nonetheless, these attacks should be seen for what they are – tactical successes by the FARC in the context of a strategic retreat.

To read the full post visit my blog.

Sikh Militants with RDX: Dangerous Combination for India’s Security

By Animesh Roul

At least three suspected militants affiliated to International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF-Rode) were arrested from different locations on Dec. 24 in Jalandhar (Punjab) along with approx. 11 kg of RDX and other ammunitions. Punjab police sources opined that the explosives were to be used for carrying out disruptive activities during the forthcoming State Assembly election. The militants were identified by the investigating agencies. Jaswinder Singh was arrested from the Chhotti Baradari area with two kg of RDX and a hand grenade. Amolak Singh and Paramjit Singh Dhaddi were arrested with three kgs and six kgs of RDX hand grenades, detonators respectively from undisclosed locations.

The Khalistran separatist movement of 1980s though suppressed strong-handedly by State agencies later in that decade, often shows its ugly head in India, with splinter groups still active in foreign land and with suspected ISI’s ‘arms and alms’. May last year (2005), Couple of bombs went off in two movie theaters in New Delhi during screenings of the controversial movie Jo Bole So Nihaal (Sikh War Cry). Who can forget the 1984- Operation Blue Star when the Indian army stormed the Golden Temple in Amritsar, Punjab – considered the holy seat of Sikhism – to flush out separatists fighting for a so called Khalistan homeland. Subsequent to the Operation, then-prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her personal Sikh bodyguards. What happened there after is history though.

In the past, various interrogation reports suggested remnants of Punjab militancy have been under constant pressure from Pakistan’s ISI to carry out operations against India and to revive insurgency once again in Punjab, which is a bordering and Strategic State. A list of these groups is given below. This is an excerpt from an article written in August 2005 in SSPC’s Opinion/Analysis Section. The author and the editor/publisher had received frantic phone calls from London and elsewhere from sympathizers of the movement lodging their protest against the content.

Al-Qaida in Iraq Announces "Mighty Raid on the Soldiers of the Crusaders and the Apostates"

By Evan Kohlmann

In response to yesterday's audio message from Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, commander (or "emir") of the Al-Qaida-led "Islamic State of Iraq", Al-Qaida and its Iraqi insurgent coalition partners have announced the start of a "Mighty Raid on the Soldiers of the Crusaders and Apostates." A statement circulated today by fighters loyal to the "Islamic State" declared, "We are at your service, Our Emir" and indicated that "new strikes by the legions of mujahideen--at their head, the Martyr Brigades, the Anti-Aircraft Brigades, the Assault Brigades, and the Fixed Weapons Brigades--are in progress targeting the fortresses of the crusaders and apostates."

While the statement did not list any specific targets, there are general ongoing concerns about Baghdad's international zone, otherwise known as the "Green Zone." Only two months ago, the U.S. military announced that it had dismantled an Al-Qaida cell in Baghdad that managed to infiltrate the high-security Green Zone and was "in the final stages" of preparing to launch suicide bomb attacks.

Iran Sanctions: The UN Finally Acts –But Much too Softly

By Victor Comras

The UN Security Council finally acted and imposed a limited set of sanctions on Iran for its continued defiance of IAEA norms re uranium enrichment. I have long argued that sanctions will be needed to turn Iran around. But, the sanctions measures adopted today by the UN Security Council (res 1737 (2006) were forged, not on the basis of what might work, but rather on the lowest common denominator basis achievable among the Perm Five. While they place some pressure on Iran there is good reason to doubt that they will prove sufficient to convince Iran to change course. Further measures will, most likely, be necessary. Nevertheless, this limited first step is better than no step at all.

Sanctions can be very useful tools when carefully crafted, used wisely, and in conjunction with other measures and policies designed to achieve clear objectives. I believe that substantive economic and trade sanctions could be used effectively to dissuade Iran from continuing to pursue its nuclear weapons program. Iran’s economy is very fragile, and the current economic situation has already created growing internal opposition to the policies of Iran’s erratic President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But the measures so far adopted are not designed to disrupt or distress Iran’s economy or normal trade and business activities. Nor do they penalize Iran’s leaders. Rather, they are directed only at hampering (they certainly won’t stop) Iran’s access to nuclear material and technology. They are unlikely to foster increased domestic pressure on the Ahmadinejad government to change course.

The sanctions are very narrowly targeted. They direct all countries to freeze the assets of 10 Iranian entities and 12 individuals associated with Iran’s centrifuge programs, its heavy water reactor at Arak and its pilot uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The 12 individuals include a vice president of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and officials associated with the Arak and Natanz plants. The measures also impose a limited ban on materials and technology that could contribute to “enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water related activities, or to the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems.” One should note, however, that these same items supposedly have already long been restricted under various international agreements such as the Nuclear Supplier Group, the Wassenaar agreement and the NPT itself.

While the Security Council Resolution clearly broadens the obligations on all countries to inhibit Iran’s acquisition of nuclear related materials, it certainly treads lightly -- equipment for light-water reactors is not included, nor is low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel elements. This exempts an $800 million light-water reactor Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr. Each country also remains free to interpret these restrictions for itself and to use its own discretion to determine which items must be barred. They are required only to inform the Security Council of any dual use items they actually export to Iran. I fear that, as with the timid UN sanctions imposed on North Korea (DPRK), the Iran sanctions won't get very much mileage.

It is already clear from Iran’s reaction to the new sanctions, and from the luke warm reception given it by US and other world leaders, that much more will be required to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. In the absence of more stringent Security Council action Europe and Japan must join with the United States in imposing serious trade measures that bring real costs to the Iranian economy for continuing its quest for nuclear weapons.

The Somali War Spills Over

By Douglas Farah

The battle for control of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union has spilled over into an international conflict with Ethiopia and poses a significant threat to the entire Horn of Africa region. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has posted on some of the details of the military activities.

Yesterday Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the ICU leader most closely indentified with al Qaeda and bin Laden, said Somalia was now at war with Ethiopia and that "All Somalis should now take part is this struggle against Ethiopia." The statement came the day after an EU envoy happily proclaimed that both sides had agreed to negotiate an end to the hostilities and that peace was at hand. Someone must be living in an alternate universe where pledges made by radicals with a history of duplicity are viewed binding.

The spread of this war is by design, not accident. In his statement earlier this week (as translated by Laura Mansfieldal Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri went out of his way to signal support for the Islamist movement in Somalia, saying "Brothers in Islam and _jihad_ in Somalia, know that you are the southern garrison of Islam, so don't allow Islam to be attacked from your flank and know that we are with you and the entire Muslim Umah is with you."

The conflict is designed not only to establish a space that can be defined as the beginning of the Islamist Caliphate, a necessary physical space from which to launch succeeding holy wars against the unbelievers. It is also aimed at creating widespread instability in a fragile region in East Africa, rich in mineral resources with weak and corrupt central governments. My full blog is here.

Somalia: Battle for Baidoa Begins, Islamic Courts Employing Feint Tactics

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have been covering the situation in Somalia since early June, when Mogadishu fell to the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The ICU has steadily gained control of strategic cities throughout the country since then, confining its secular rival, the transitional federal government (TFG), to the south-central Somali city of Baidoa. This morning I have a major piece of breaking news over at Pajamas Media, where I reveal that the ICU has begun its final push to take Baidoa. An excerpt:

Baidoa is heavily fortified and protected by a large contingent of Ethiopian troops but its defenses will not hold, intelligence sources tell Pajamas Media. Ethiopia has allied itself with Somalia's embattled transitional federal government.

Reached by Pajamas Media, Dahir Jibreel, the transitional government's permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation, confirmed that a massive offensive is underway. Jibreel said that the ICU launched an "offensive on the seat of the government from three directions: Burkhakabo, Idale and Dinsor."

Jibreel is guardedly optimistic, noting that the Islamic radicals "sustained heavy losses."

"They will overrun Baidoa," a military intelligence officer told Pajamas Media. "It's only a question of when."

It's worth noting that the military intelligence source with whom I spoke believes that the ICU's early attacks on Baidoa -- which got beaten back -- were not intended to take the city, but instead were feint operations designed to make the transitional government and its Ethiopian allies overconfident, and perhaps cause them to advance from their fortified positions. If he is correct that these were feint operations (and this source has been extremely reliable in the past), then the ICU succeeded in driving up the the TFG's confidence. I spoke to a number of sources close to the TFG's leadership this morning, and they were convinced that the TFG is winning.

Fallout from the Ba'asyir Verdict

By Kenneth Conboy

Late on Thursday, the Indonesian Supreme Court overturned the two-year conviction for militant cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. In doing so, the court was saying that the conviction of Ba'asyir was invalid--and his involvement in the 2002 Bali bombing is not proven. The court also ordered the government to "rehabilitate" Ba'asyir's name, though at least one government spokesman on Thursday was insisting that they still viewed Ba'asyir as a terrorist.

Few had anticipated the Supreme Court verdict, though in a sense it is not a surprise. During two separate trials, the Indonesian government prosecutors had put together incredibly weak cases against Ba'asyir. Part of this was blamed on incompetence.

Too, part of their failure to piece together a strong case against Ba'asyir was blamed on an Indonesian regulation that exclude any testimony not given to Indonesian authorities on Indonesian soil. In some cases, the prosecutor's found innovative ways around this regulation. One terrorist held in Singapore, for example, was allowed to testify via closed-circuit television. Another al-Qaeda terrorist, the late Umar Faruq, was quizzed by Indonesian police in Afghanistan who had pragmatically raised an Indonesian flag and designated Faruq's cell as Indonesian territory.

But even more damning testimony from terrorists held overseas--like Hambali, who reportedly gave crticial evidence that dealt with bombings in 2000--never made its way to the court room.

Regardless of where the fault lies, an emboldened Ba'asyir is certain to ratchet up his already fiery rhetoric. Yesterday was definitely two steps backward for Indonesia's counter-terrorist effort.

Zawahiri Uses ISG Report to Call for Negotiations

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In the new tape from al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri that was broadcast today by al-Jazeera, he references the Iraq Study Group report:

Zawahiri said Washington was scrambling for an exit from Iraq and Afghanistan, but was approaching the wrong parties. "Both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to find an exit from the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are still thinking with the same rash mentality and trying to negotiate with some sides to secure your exit but these sides cannot offer you an escape and your attempts will only bring more failure. You are not negotiating with the real powers in the Muslim world and you appear to be heading towards a painful round of negotiations, after which you will forced to talk[ ] to the real forces..." he said.

Zawahiri is, of course, referring to al-Qaeda as the real power that Washington will be forced to talk to. This is not the first time that al-Qaeda has suggested that the United States or other Western powers should engage in talks with them. The terrorist group's first overtures to the West came in April 2004, after the 3/11 bombings seemingly swung the Spanish election and brought to power a Socialist government that promptly withdrew its troops from Iraq. In April 2004, Osama bin Laden offered a truce to European countries that similarly withdrew their forces from Iraq. After that, al-Qaeda leaders frequently spoke of a way out of the conflict in speeches that they directed at the West. Bin Laden did this in his October 2004 video, in which he urged Westerners to "look for [9/11's] causes in order to prevent it from happening again." (See my analysis of the video.) Zawahiri then referenced bin Laden's analysis of the conflict with the West in an August 2005 video, where he asked, "Didn't Osama bin Laden tell you that you would never dream of peace until we actually live it in Palestine and before all foreign forces withdraw from the Land of Muhammad?" A number of other Al-Qaeda public statements suggest that the West should choose a course of negotiation and appeasement, including a February 2005 Zawahiri video and a September 2005 Adam Gadahn video.

Negotiation with al-Qaeda is a terrible idea now, just as it was on all the previous occasions that the terrorist group suggested the course. What has changed is the political environment. The Waziristan Accord was a surrender to al-Qaeda and Taliban factions. The world has looked the other way as the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Courts Union rose to power in Somalia, drawing foreign fighters to the country and implementing a strict version of sharia law in the process. The Iraq Study Group frames Iran and Syria as partners for peace in Iraq that need to be engaged, despite both countries' active support for the insurgency. The op-ed pages of major newspapers reveal an increased taste for negotiation with our enemies: witness Jason Burke's call in The Observer for negotiation with the Taliban. We are increasingly in a negotiating mood.

I don't expect the United States to sit down at the negotiating table with Osama bin Laden anytime soon, nor do I expect any major politicians to embrace this view in the next couple of years. Rather, the question in my mind is whether this view will gain enough legitimacy that it is seen as a real alternative, something that those of us in the counterterrorism field have to actively argue against. If the pro-negotiation view does gain legitimacy in this way, it will create further difficulties for the West.

Al Qaeda's Zawahiri Threatens More Attacks on USA, West (updated)

By Jeffrey Imm

UPDATE: Laura Mansfield has a full transcript on her website.

Al-Jazeera has released additional excerpts from Al Qaeda deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri's videotaped message:

Earlier excerpts of Zawahiri's message referenced Hamas and Palestinian government, calling for a renewal of Jihadist activity and Islamism in Palestinian government.

In the latest excerpts of his message, Zawahiri renewed threats against the United States and the West, and also referenced the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Threats Against US and West:
"If we are attacked in our land we shall not stop attacking you in your countries, God willing..." and "As our emir Sheikh Osama bin Laden, God keep him, said, 'Like you bomb, you will be bombed, and like you kill, you will be killed".

Regarding Afghanistan and Iraq:
Zawahiri stated that President Bush was deceiving the American people by telling them he was going after "terrorists" in Afghanistan and Iraq in order to keep them away from the United States. "Your safety lies in the following equation: you will not dream of security until we live secure in Palestine and all Muslim lands," Zawahiri said.
"Both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to find an exit from the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are still thinking with the same rash mentality and trying to negotiate with some sides to secure your exit but these sides cannot offer you an escape and your attempts will only bring more failure."
"You are not negotiating with the real powers in the Muslim world and you appear to be heading towards a painful round of negotiations, after which you will forced to talks to the real forces..." he said.

Regarding Revival of Islamic caliphate:
"I urge the whole Muslim nation to support this fledgling state as it is, God willing, the gateway for the liberation of Palestine and the revival of the Islamic caliphate." "I also urge all my mujahideen brothers in Iraq to join this blessed convoy to save the Iraq caliphate from the shackles of the crusaders and their agents, the traitors who have sold their faith", and in discussing Palestine, stating that it is "the duty of every Muslim" to recover Muslim land."

Criticizing Iraq Shiite Muslim Leaders (he claims oppose Jihad against US):
"How is it possible that jihad against the Jews in Lebanon is in line with Islam but jihad against Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan is taboo"?

Scope of Zawahiri Message
SITE Institute has provided the banner announced on Jihadist websites on Monday, December 18, 2006, advertising the anticipated Zawahiri message as being entitled: "The Truth of the Conflict Between the Muslims and the Infidels".

Sources:
Zawahiri vows attacks on US, slams Hamas - AFP
Qaeda's Zawahri threatens more attacks on West - Reuters
Zawahri: US must negotiate with Al Qaida

The Rationale of the Zawahiri Statements

By Douglas Farah

To many, the statements of al-Zawahiri and other radical Islamists on elections and _jihad_ can be interpreted as the rantings of mad mullahs who hate freedom and the West.

But a careful reading of Islamist texts, provided by such authors as Andrew Bostom and Mary Habek (Knowing the Enemy) show that these reponses are entirely rational within the _jihadi_ world view. This theology and ideology were developed centuries before Israel came into being and long before Western liberal democracies gained currency in the world.

The rationale, taken from Wahhab, Qutb, al Banna and others is simple: Only the Quran, as interpreted by these groups, can guide the world, providing a religious, political and legal handbook that cannot be abridged. Anything that is contrary to these interpretations of Allah's law-including the statements in the Quran itself that speak less harshly of Jews and Christians, deemed to have been made under specific historic conditions no longer applicable-are punishable by death. My entire blog is here.

Al Qaeda Deputy Al-Zawahiri Condemns Palestinian Elections, Urges "Jihad"

By Jeffrey Imm

Al-Jazeera television released an excerpt of Al Qaeda deputy Al-Zawahiri's latest message in a Wednesday morning news bulletin, stating that it will air a longer segment later.

In this morning's excerpt of the latest Al-Zawahiri message, the Al Qaeda deputy stated: "Those who are trying to liberate the Islamic territories through elections based on secular constitutions, or on decisions to hand over Palestine to the Jews, will not liberate one grain of sand of Palestine, but will choke jihad." This is in apparent response to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's proposal for early elections to resolve the conflict between the Fatah and Hamas parties.

Zawahiri called Abbas as "America's man in Palestine," warning that if Palestinians accepted Abbas as their president, it would be "the end of holy war".

Zawahiri also criticized Hamas (although not mentioning the group by name), accusing the group of meeting concessions that would lead to "the recognition of Israel", accusing Hamas of concessions starting with signing "the truce" with Israel last year, and taking part in January elections "based on a secular constitution". Zawahiri asked: "Aren't they an Islamic movement? Aren't they campaigning for the word of God to be supreme?" he said, adding the party should have insisted on the drafting of "an Islamic constitution for Palestine."

The Al Qaeda deputy also stated: "Every way which is not Jihad will only result in defeat. He who tries to liberate the lands of Islam through elections is relying on secular principles and must realize that he is surrendering to the Jews." "The decision to surrender to the Jews will not free the Palestinian territories. To retreat before the West will not achieve anything. The Qur'an in fact tells us not to choose the Christians and Jews as allies so as not to follow their religion".

SITE Institute has provided the banner announced on Jihadist websites on Monday, December 18, 2006, advertising the anticipated Zawahiri message as being entitled: "The Truth of the Conflict Between the Muslims and the Infidels". Additional excerpts of the message will be released by Al-Jazeera later.

Sources:

Al Qaeda Deputy Leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri Condemns Palestinian Elections, Urges 'Holy War' Against Israel - Associated Press

Middle East: Al-Qaeda No. 2 In Video Message On Palestinian Election - AKI

Palestinian polls will choke jihad: Al-Qaeda deputy - Sydney Morning Herald

Al-Zawahri criticizes early polls for Palestinians - AP/MSNBC

Hamas to al-Qaeda: We haven't quit resistance

India Awaits Counter Terror Doctrine amid Terror Threats

By Animesh Roul

India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB) has placed a concept paper on counter terror doctrine before the elite Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) for approval. The doctrine keeping the high-level of threats in view, reportedly have come heavily against hostage-terrorist swaps with host of other pressing issues including the role of state police forces, intelligence sharing between security agencies and last but not the least, coordination between government agencies involved in combating terror. The proposed doctrine reportedly says that if negotiations with terrorist outfits should be aimed at engaging them for a period within which appropriate action against them can be taken.

Are U.S. Taxpayers Paying for a Network Infiltrated by Hezbollah?

By Andrew Cochran

I received a translation of an Arabic-language article published in the "Moharrer Al Arabi" newspaper on December 15 about the infiltration by Hezbollah of the “al-Hurra” TV station and its sister “Radio Sawa” station in Beirut. These stations are funded by American taxpayers to provide objective news and analysis to the Lebanese people, but if this story is correct, the Administration and the new Congress will have to take corrective action. At a minimum, there should be an investigation of the charges in the article. Here is the translated text of the article as sent to me by a reliable source (with errors uncorrected):

"Syrian intelligence plants female staff, daughters of security officials
'Hezbollah' penetrates the American 'ALHURRA TV' and 'Radio SAWA' and
The Congress ousts the Lebanese director and engenders comprehensive changes

It might be the worst climax of President Bush republican administration is the success of this administration in tolerating Hezbollah to penetrate through its Media and security gaps.

Confirmed information from Washington, Beirut, Dubai and Damascus assured that the party succeeded to infiltrate the two main American means of information, perhaps the only Arabic-speaking, that addresses the Arabic public opinion in order to strengthen its confrontation against al-Qaeda, terrorism and Iran plan to hold grip control on Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine by means of its cat’s-paw and organizations, particularly Hezbollah.

Reliable sources revealed that “al-Hurra” TV station and its sister “Radio Sawa”, oriented towards Arab world and middle-east, have been politically, informational and security transpierced so that Hezbollah party could control wide area of its broad direction or in monitoring the events through.

According to available information, this infiltration was through the Arabic director of al-Hurra who was a member of Hezbollah in 1980s then left for study in the USA, and worked for a short period as side assistant in a television program then a correspondent for an Arabic newspaper published in Paris. After which a partner in a news agency of special task to blackmailing Saudi Arabia and when failed, quit and returned to Lebanon to restore his old connections, adding new relations with the Syrian security, specifically, the official in charge of Syrian regime’s relation with Hezbollah and Shiite’s political action’s activists.

Another Terrorism Case Is Dismissed Against Saleh Kamel and His Dallah Al Baraka Investment Group

By Victor Comras

The Arab News is touting a decision by US District Court (SDNY) Judge Richard Conway Casey dismissing a series of consolidated insurance company lawsuits against Saleh Kamel and his Dallah Al Barakat Group (not to be confused with the Al Barakaat group of companies designated by OFAC as a terrorism financing institution). This follows on Judge Casey's dismissal last year of lawsuits against Saleh Kamel and Al Barakat brought by the families of the 9/11 victims. At that time Judge Casey found no basis for holding Kamel or his investment company liable despite allegations that he had invested in, and was otherwise associated with banks and other financial institutions that had channeled funds to the terrorists. Kamel was one of the names prominently listed in the so-called Golden Chain, which purported to be a list of potential al Qaeda financiers. Judge Casey reportedly issued a five page memorandum explaining his ruling and that ruling will be linked here when it becomes available.

It will be interesting to compare the rationale for Judge Casey's latest ruling with the rulings in the recent Nat-west and Credit Lyonnais cases, and the decision in the Boim Case -- all of which maintained that banks and other financial institutions that knowingly provided financial services for the the benefit of terrorist organizations may be held liable. Some 16 different lawsuits have been filed against Kamel, but his attorney, Martin McMahon believes this ruling will lead to all of them ultimately being dismissed against his client.

DHS & US VISIT...Additional Comment

By Bill West

I have a few follow-up comments to my colleague Mike Cutler’s excellent posting below about the plan by DHS to abandon efforts to implement the departure control provisions of the US VISIT entry/exit border security system. Mike and I have written about this issue previously and have noted the regrettable delay in the development process of the US VISIT departure control system. Knowing who comes into the US on a supposedly temporary visa is one thing; knowing who among that alien population does and does not leave when they are required is another. The national security ramifications of such matters are self-evident.

DHS officials have cited technological and cost issues as the primary reasons for abandoning this effort, followed by concerns for the potential disruption to the flow of legitimate international travel and commerce. When hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars have been spent on the war in Iraq, one wonders how a few billion over several years securing America’s borders can be considered poorly spent if the results truly work. From a technological perspective, the entry part of US VISIT is handled by an Inspector physically examining the person and documents as they enter the country at the port-of-entry and inputting the requisite information into a database. Perhaps until higher workable technology is developed, having Inspectors physically examine persons and documents as they depart the US at ports-of-entry might work. Of course, this might require hiring more Inspectors and building additional inspection facilities at the ports. Perhaps that might have been what Congress had in mind when it appropriated all that additional funding to the program instead of farming it out to an offshore contracting firm?

Does "DHS" Stand For "Department of Homeland Surrender"?

By Michael Cutler

The week has barely begun and already we have another example of incompetence at a component of DHS, the agency I have come to sadly refer to as the "Department of Homeland Surrender." If the law enforcement and intelligence agencies are to be effective in carrying their responsibilities to protect our nation from aliens engaged in criminal activities and terrorism, then it is absolutely critical that our nation have the capability to track aliens who enter our country to also know if and when they leave our country. On May 11 of this year, I testified before the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the Committee on International Relations that was, at that time, chaired by Representative Dana Rohrabacher of California. The topic of the hearing was, "Visa Overstays, Can We Bar the Terrorist Door?" You can read the transcript of the hearing here.

It has been estimated that as many as 40% of the illegal aliens who are present in the United States did not run our nation's borders but rather entered the United States through ports of entry and then either failed to depart the United States within the time that they were authorized to remain in the United States or otherwise violated the terms of their admission by accepting unauthorized employment, committing a felony for which they were subsequently convicted, etc. It is important to remember that the terrorists who attacked our nation on September 11, 2001 all entered the United States through ports of entry. It is extremely important to know the whereabouts of aliens who become the targets of investigations because it enables the agents of ICE, the FBI, DEA or other agencies to know if their quarry is even still in the United States especially if they are the targets of arrest warrants or if a determination has been made that they need to be followed to cultivate intelligence. Knowing if an individual has departed the United States or is still within our nation's borders also helps to develop a clearer picture about the travel patterns of criminals and especially terrorists and the departure side of the equation is vital for all of these objectives.

Blind Spots on Somalia

By Douglas Farah

One of the most astonishing statements in today's Washington Post look at Somalia comes from John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence.

Negroponte said that "I don't think there are hard and fast views," on al Qaeda in Somalia, noting that Somalia "has come back on the radar screen only fairly recently," and the question is whether the Islamist government "is the next Taliban," he said. "I don't think I've seen a good answer."

It is hard to know what "only recently" means as far as being on the intelligence communty radar screen, but it has been clear for well over a year that Islamist groups were making a move to take over. It is clear for almost eight months that they have, in fact, defeated U.S.-backed forces, imposed _sharia_ law on much of the country and moved to spread the Islamist revolution.

I know that, in the field, intelligence was being reported extensively. But, like much of this type of activitiy in the world's black holes, in the absence of a long-term threat assessment, war gaming and over-the-horizon planning, it may simply never have made it up the food chain. My full blog is here.

Al Qaeda in Iraq congratulates GSPC for its latest attack

By Olivier Guitta

In a communique published last week after the terror attack against Brown Root and Condor personnel in Bouchaoui which killed 2 and injured 8, Al Qaeda in Iraq congratulated GSPC for its successful operation.
"We bless the conquest of Bouchaoui; we say to our GSPC brothers continue your Jihad against the apostates in Algeria in order to establish an Islamic State and install the Shariah",
"We call on all Muslims to strike the Crusaders' interests on Muslim land to take revenge for our brothers in Iraq, Afghanistan and everywhere else on Muslim land".
The Alliance between GSPC and Al Qaeda is really sealed and this attack against a Western target fits more an Al Qaeda tactic rather than a classical GSPC one.

Syrian regime preparing exile to Iran?

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, according to the very well informed Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah, the Syrian regime is quite worried of the results of the international tribunal investigating the death of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri. Allegedly, Syrian top leaders have already transferred $3 billion to Iran on accounts owned by Iranian central bank. These accounts cannot be touched in case of UN sanctions. It makes sense that only Iran as the main Damascus's ally would accept hosting the Syrian leadership.

Terror Tidings: The Blind Sheikh is Sick and Prince Turki Flies

By Aaron Mannes

News of Sheikh Omar abd al-Rahman’s illness has raised concerns of an upcoming terror attack. While it has not been reported as such, Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki’s sudden resignation and return to Saudi Arabia is another – very different (and potentially more serious) – indicator that something may be in the works.

Read the full blog entry

New Pentagon Counterinsurgency Manual Released

By Andrew Cochran

The Pentagon has released a new counterinsurgency manual, jointly produced by the Army and Marine Corps. As the Foreward notes, "It has been 20 years since the Army published a field manual devoted exclusively to counterinsurgency operations. For the Marine Corps it has been 25 years. With our Soldiers and Marines fighting insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq, it is essential that we give them a manual that provides principles and guidelines for counterinsurgency operations. Such guidance must be grounded in historical studies. However, it also must be informed by contemporary experiences." Experience, indeed. Steven Aftergood's "Secrecy News" blog of the Federation of American Scientists has the entire manual, and I will save it in the CT Library on this site.

The prinicpal editor of the manual, Dr. Conrad Crane of the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, forged his high reputation in the field with two studies which predicted the extreme difficulties now faced by U.S. forces in Iraq. The first, "Reconstructing Iraq," was released almost 4 years ago, before we had even entered the country. Unfortunately, top U.S. officials in Iraq didn't pay attention to his predictions. You can download that study here from the SSI site. Dr. Crane followed up with "Precedents, Variables, and Options in Planning a U.S. Military Disengagement Strategy from Iraq" in October 2005, which recommended against a fixed timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops, "unless Iraq’s government fails and the situation becomes hopeless" (download here).

The Foreword to the new manual notes, "Soldiers and Marines are expected to be nation builders as well as warriors. They must be prepared to help reestablish institutions and local security forces and assist in rebuilding infrastructure and basic services. They must be able to facilitate establishing local governance and the rule of law. The list of such tasks is long; performing them involves extensive coordination and cooperation with many intergovernmental, host-nation, and international agencies." That's a tall order which the Pentagon did not officially recognize prior to entering Iraq, so this manual is a step forward, however belated, in the formation of counterinsugency doctrine in facing future threats.

A Chilling Look at the Taliban's Success

By Douglas Farah

In a fascinating find Newsweek has published a nine-page "book of rules" that the Taliban is distributing in its areas of control in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The list itself is not earth-shattering, a list of principles to guide its militants on everything from what _infidels_ can be executed to moving from one unit to another.

But what is shows is that the Taliban leadership has the time and space to fashion such a handbook, something a group cannot do when it is seriously pressed militarily or living primarily on the run.

It also clearly demonstrates a coherent command and control structure, with orders coming down, written permission being needed for specific actions (merging units etc.) and a vertical structure that can impose punishment as well as reward. The duties and sole responsibilities of senior commanders, junior commanders and the supreme commander (Mullah Omar) are laid out quite clearly. My full blog is here.

Indonesian militant sentenced for 2001 bombing

By Kenneth Conboy

Solahudin, a 30 year old Indonesian militant, was sentenced to four years on Thursday for helping store explosives that were used in a failed 2001 bombing at the entrance to a shopping mall in Central Jakarta. Their target was not the mall itself, but rather a church congregation that regularly waited for a bus near that entrance. The bomb went off prematurely, taking off the legs of one of the terrorists. One Malaysian militant has been sentenced to death and two Indonesians have already been given life sentences for the incident. Solahudin was arrested in April during a raid on a suspected safehouse used by Jemaah Islamiyah fugitive Noordin Top.

Polonium: The Terrorists' Perfect WMD? Possibly (Part 2)

By Andrew Cochran

Last week, I posted on the possibility that terrorists could use polonium 210, the radioactive substance which killed former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, as a weapon of mass destruction. I asked for comments and subsequently received more e-mails than I've ever received about a single post. Here are excerpts from some of the best:

On the substance itself, Philip Henika sent this link to the World Health Organization's "Polonium-210: basic facts and questions" page with this: "Po-210 represents a radiation hazard only if taken into the body – by inhalation, ingestion, or getting into a wound... The toxicity of Po-210 is much higher than that of cyanides, for example. Nevertheless it does not represent a risk to human health as long as it remains outside the body." He also sent a link to this piece in the St. Petersburg (Russia) Times in which the author wrote, "Since the 19th century it has been customary for blood enemies in the Caucasus to poison each other with polonium-210." (UPDATE: That last statement cannot be true; the Global Security website on polonium notes, "Prior to 1944, polonium had not been isolated in pure form or in any appreciable quantity" (tip to Brian Kramer). Larry Johnson, former CT Blog Contributing Expert, wrote that the agents of the old Soviet Union used polonium often to poison enemies fo the state. So I assume some of them would know how to process and handle significant amounts of polonium.

Christopher Dickey, the Paris bureau chief and veteran reporter at Newsweek, sent me this link to his blog, in which he debunked claims that you can easily buy polonium through the internet.

As far as its potential as a WMD, polonium is already carried through smoke in common cigarettes. A polonium FAQ on "USA Today" states that "Polonium occurs in nature at very low levels... And a cigarette contains less than a billionth of the amount of polonium implicated in Litvinenko's death, according to a 1996 study in the journal Radiologic Technology... elevated readings of polonium could be explained away as the effects of heavy smoking..." And a professor wrote in an op-ed that "I suspect that even some of our more enlightened smokers will be surprised to learn that cigarette smoke is radioactive."

Jeffrey Melton, a "radiation safety buff" and industrial hygeine graduate student at the Universty of Illinois at Chicago, wrote the following:

"Polonium is most certainly dangerous, but it is far from an ideal WMD. Yes, polonium-210 is made by neutron bombardment of bismuth inside of a research reactor, but it is still imbedded in the bismuth metal. Bismuth is a rather non-toxic metal, and extracting polonium is fairly challenging. In all likelihood, you will not have much polonium to work with. This is compounded by how fast polonium decays. Half of your source is going to be gone in 138 days, starting as soon as it is made. Undetectable? Polonium is VERY easy to detect... This is also why polonium is showing up everywhere - the detection limit is very, very low. Polonium-210 emits alpha radiation, which is nasty inside of you, but it lacks penetrating power. It quite literally cannot go through the outermost layer of your skin, a piece of paper, or even a small amount of air. A good quality dust mask and decent hygeine would keep you safe. Disposable coveralls and a lead or asbestos approved respirator would allow you to work in the area just fine."

UPDATE: Just saw this on the UPI wire by a Russian journalist with a physicist describing the Litvinenko murder as "a rehearsal for a dirty bomb" and claiming "The incident shows that something dangerous is cooking in the terrorist kitchen, with menacing ideas and plans that can generally be described as a crime."

CONCLUSION: A terrorist (or group) with patience, explosives training and the assistance of knowledgeable agents (and I'm told there are numerous "rogue" ex-KGBers out there) could weaponize polonium into an inhalable mixture for a deadly but brief attack in an urban area. Whether a terrorist group would go through the exercise is a topic for another discussion.

“Religious” Rahman Reminds Us...

By Bill West

The FBI has issued an alert to US law enforcement concerning potential terrorist attacks stemming from the possible death of imprisoned Shiekh Omar Abdel Rahman, an Egyptian Islamic cleric affiliated with the conspirators in the first World Trade Center bombing, who was convicted in 1995 of conspiring to bomb other buildings and infrastructure in New York. Law enforcement and Intelligence officials fear his death while in US custody may spark revenge attacks by jihadists against the United States, though they claim no specific threats have been identified.

Recent reports of massive fraud within the US religious worker visa program, particularly as it relates to perpetrators from Muslim “special interest” countries that produce significant numbers of Islamic jihadist terrorists, and faltering US Government efforts to counter such fraud, are ironically timed with Abdel Rahman’s failing health and the FBI security warning.

The “Blind Sheik” entering the United States was arguably one of the greatest singular immigration failures in US history. He was issued a tourist visa and allowed to enter the US while on a terrorist lookout list. Even after this, he was later granted permanent resident alien status (issued a “green card”) as a “religious worker.” To its credit, what was then the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) was the first US Government agency to initiate overt action against Abdel Rahman by eventually revoking his permanent resident status and placing him under deportation proceedings before he was criminally indicted. But that was several years after his bogus entry into the US in the first place.

Report on 9-11 Commission Recommendations Shows We're Still Not Prepared

By Michael Cutler

I received a copy of a special report from Bruce DeCell, a founding member of the 911 Families for a Secure America. Bruce is a former member of the NYPD whose young son-in-law was among the thousands of innocent human beings who were slaughtered in the ruthless, savage attacks that were carried out against our nation on September 11, 2001. The report was prepared by the CRS, the Congressional Research Service, the division of the United States Congress that, as its name implies, is responsible for gathering information to help our Senators and members of the House of Representatives arrive at reasonable decisions.

The report, in its entirety, addresses a broad spectrum of issues that were addressed by the 9-11 Commission in its efforts to delineate the failings of our government to prevent the attacks of September 11, 2001. It is critical to understand that this report is of tremendous importance because the point to the work of the 9-11 Commission was not to engage in a "witch hunt" to point a finger, but rather to make certain that areas of vulnerability could be found and appropriate remedial steps taken to help prevent future attacks and devastation.

I have copied the section that deals with my own area of expertise below. I have highlighted particular sentences in the copied document below, to help illustrate points that I have been making for quite some time where our government has, incredibly, still refused to act or, in some really bizarre situations, has actually gone in the opposite direction, making our nation, in my judgement, more vulnerable than ever before! Let us briefly consider the ways in which the government and our "leaders" have failed and continue to fail the citizens of our nation.

The Generational War

By Douglas Farah

It is not a popular thing to say in public circles, but there is a growing awareness of the the nature of the Islamist threat to the United States and the West in the Pentagon and elsewhere.

In an interview with the Washington Times, Brig. Gen. Mark O. Schissler, deputy director for the war on terrorism within the strategic plans office of the Pentagon's Joint Staff, stated that the enemy is "absolutely committed to the 50-. 100-year plan" to establish a caliphate.

This is not news. But this type of public assessment has been sorely lacking since 9-11. People in the Intelligence Community here and abroad, who read the _jihadi_ literature and pay attention to what they say, know this. But there has been an extreme reluctance to make this case publicly and constantly, so people are aware of not only what the stakes are but of the need for an over-arching, long-term strategy.

There is very little work being done in looking at the 10 to 20 year horizon on where Islamists are now, where they are moving and what the potential future threats and opportunities are for moving against them. Almost everything in the Pentagon and IC are geared to the 3 to 5 year horizon. In real terms, this is extremely short. My entire blog is here.

Five Years after Indian Parliament Attack

By Animesh Roul

On the eve of the fifth anniversary of Parliament attack, political parties, civil society groups have started a debate of sort on the fate of main convict Mohammad Afzal Guru, a former Jaish-e-Mohammed terorist, who is serving a death sentence and waiting for clemency from President of India.

Afzal Guru’s execution scheduled on Oct.20 was postponed on grounds such as 1) he might be innocent, 2) the execution was scheduled to take place during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and 3) family members had submitted a clemency petition to the president.

Fourteen people, including the terrorists have been killed in Dec.2001 terrorist attack on the Parliament building. [For A Complete Archive Click Here]

Have We Had Enough?

By Bill West

Today, there was a story in the Ontario, California Inland Valley Daily Bulletin concerning the grossly abused and mismanaged religious worker visa program administered by the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) agency of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CIS is the successor to the Adjudications Division of the old Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) pre-DHS in 2003. Most of the rank-and-file CIS managers are left-over INS Adjudications Division managers. Which may explain a lot since their mind-set was (and still apparently is) to give away as many immigration benefits as possible, eligibility of the beneficiary aliens seemingly having little to do with anything.

And that is most unfortunate, since most front-line adjudications officers in CIS, as with their INS forerunners, truly want to do the right job and screen out ineligible and especially fraudulent benefit seekers. These hard-working line officers are confronted daily with an agency overwhelmed by volume and institutional focus that overwhelmingly gives the benefit of any doubt to the benefit seeking alien. That focus has developed over decades and, even after the 9/11 attacks and all the alleged changes in favor of national security, has not yet filtered into the immigration benefit granting process.

As cited in the Daily Bulletin report, and also reflected in various Congressional and internal DOJ and DHS studies, the religious worker visa program by any measure is a disaster. Nearly a third of these visa petitions are considered fraudulent. Most of those fraudulent visa petitions involve Muslim aliens from “special interest” countries that send us terrorists (though that fact is likely something that would be difficult to ferret out from PC-minded bureaucrats).

EU Strikes Down Terrorist Finance Designation of Iranian Opposition

By Jonathan Winer

The EU Court of First Instance, the EU's 2nd highest level appellate court, has struck down the EU designation of a significant Iranian opposition group, the People's Mujaheddin (OMPI) on the ground that OMPI didn't have a fair hearing before its assets were frozen.

This is a further sign of the growing effort to require judicial oversight of national security designations made by national governments in the area of economic sanctions against terrorism. In theory, the same justification could be given for requiring EU governments to prove that Al Qaeda is a threat to the EU and to give Osama bin Ladin and Al Qaeda the opportunity to be heard before their assets could be frozen,

When I was in the USG during the Clinton Administration, our recurrent nightmare in the use of economic sanctions was that a judge somewhere, someday, would decide that he or she had the independent right to review all of the facts we had used to make a national security designation of a particular group, to reach the judge's own decision of whether a designated entity was or wasn't a threat to the U.S.

It was my view then, and remains my view now, that to answer civil liberties concerns governments need to develop open source information to justify terrorist designations, and to place such a package of information in the public record each time a designation is made. Treasury-OFAC now often does this, although the accompanying public material tends to be very summary, and far less than that which might be needed in a judicial setting.

In principle, in the US a judge can determine whether the government in making a national security determination had a rational basis for reaching the determination -- a very low, administrative law standard, not one that requires the government to prove that the judge would have reached the same decision it made. In practice, because US courts give such wide discretion to the President on this issue, challenges to OFAC jurisdiction are very rare, and almost never succeed.

But in the EU, transforming the question of whether a country has adequately justified its imposition of economic sanctions on national security grounds into a purely judicial determination requiring a trial of the facts on the merits and a high standard of proof has the potential to substantially undermine the ability to use sanctions against people who are engaged in independent military action against civilian targets.

For now, the invalidation of this group's designation by the European court represents one further European retreat on economic sanctions against terrorists. Besides having had an alliance with Saddam Hussein, the organization has or had ties with: Amal, the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Al Fatah, and other Palestinian factions, and reportedly the Taliban.

Sunni-Shiite Sectarian Conflict Moves into Cyberspace

By Evan Kohlmann

Reflecting the ongoing downward spiral of relations between Sunni and Shiite Muslims--not only in Iraq but across the entire Middle East--Sunni militants have announced a campaign to attack certain Shia websites that they have accused of besmirching the honor of the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the mujahideen of Iraq. In a plea to other Sunnis on the Internet urging them to volunteer to take part in this cyberattack, the campaign organizers have admonished, "O', where are those who are proud of their commander, Abu Musab (may Allah have mercy on him)... and of Islam?" The organizers also offered a download link for simple Windows-based hacking software that would allow even web novices the chance to participate in the upcoming attack. According a subsequent notification posted today, the planned cyberattack will commence on this Friday, December 15 at 11am eastern time (7pm Mecca time).

GSPC all over the place

By Olivier Guitta

For a group supposedly extinct that's what the government in Algiers wants us to believe after the blatant failure of their amnesty, GSPC is doing quite well unfortunately.

As my colleague Evan Kohlmann reported GSPC is behind the latest attack against Brown & Root - Condor employees. But this is just one of the many attacks perpetrated on an almost daily basis by GSPC, an average of about 30 to 50 people are killed each months because of terror acts. This latest attack is meaningful because it's the first one in a long time which has specifically targeted foreigners.

Also French secret service have advised the organizers of the famous and prestigious auto race Paris Dakar to cancel some of the stages in Mauritania and Mali because of the threats posed by the GSPC. For the time being organizers have not budged.

GSPC has been more and more recruiting experienced elements from other countries, including Nigerians, Mauritanians and Malians. At the same time GSPC has been launching a large recruiting operation in Algeria targeting young unemployed men. These recruits are convinced by propaganda spread out on CDs extolling the Jihad in Iraq.

Last but not least, European authorities are very worried by the fact that some GSPC operatives are sneaking into Europe through the illegal immigration of the new "boat-people". In fact, just a few days ago,a know GSPC operative was found dead in one of these illegal embarkations. Since most top GSPC leaders are known to French and Spanish authorities, it is much easier for them to sneak in with illegals and get inside Europe undetected.

Scary thought indeed.

Morocco under the assault of Islamists

By Olivier Guitta

In fact not a week goes by without a story of arrests of alleged terrorists, radical imams and cells preparing youngsters for the Jihad in Iraq.

Back at the end of November, authorities dismantled a cell in the same Casablanca slum where the fourteen bombers of the May 2003 originated. This cell composed of 13 men was headed by Abu Zubair Al Maghribi who had been watched by police for a few months because of his contacts with the Algerian terror group GSPC.He had recruited very rapidly 12 men, martyr candidates for the Jihad in Morocco and Iraq. In fact, they had planned to build a training camp in the Atlas mountains and had picked targets they could attack in Morocco. Including the British and US embassies and consulates alike.

On December 1, Morocco fired 31 imams for their radical sermons.

Also authorities have been focusing on the city of Tetuan and especially its Mezwak mosque where over a dozen young men were recruited to commit suicide attacks against coalition forces in Iraq. Interestingly, most of the alleged perpetrators of the Madrid March 11 2004 attacks were also attending this mosque. A Moroccan goes as far as calling the Mezwak mosque "a factory of suicide bombers", the Saudi owned daily Asharq Al Awsat calls it " the highway for suicide bombers to Iraq".

Considering these facts, it is not surprising that CIA agents have come to Morocco to investigate the extent of the recruiting for Iraq's suicide missions. Indeed the number of Moroccans fighting in Iraq has skyrocketed in the past few years. According to the Spanish El Pais, over 500 suicide attacks have occurred in Iraq since the start of the war, 90% of them have been perpetrated by foreigners and a majority of them have been Moroccans.

But not only Americans are showing up in Tetuan, Spaniards are also swarming around the mosque to get their share of info related to the Madrid bombings and the potential recruitment of likely terrorists.

GSPC Claims Credit for Terror Attack on Western Contractors in Algeria

By Evan Kohlmann

In a written communique released today and deemed to be authentic, the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC) has claimed responsibility for an ambush yesterday on a bus carrying foreign contractors working for the multinational construction conglomerate Brown & Root - Condor on a road west of Algiers. According to the statement from the GSPC:

"Allah... has guided a group of mujahideen in executing an operation that targeted crusaders working for the American company Brown & Root - Condor in Bouchaoui, on the road between Algiers and Zeralda. This operation took place on Sunday afternoon... with the detonation of a bomb on a bus carrying no less than 20 crusaders... This operation is a modest gift that we offer to our Muslim brothers who are suffering from the misfortunes of the new Crusade that is targeting Islam and its sanctuaries. We say to them: your brothers from among the grandsons of Tariq bin Ziyad will never be satisfied until the crusaders and their agents are expelled. We also take this opportunity to renew our call to all the Muslims of Algeria to stay away from the interests of the infidels if they wish to avoid being inadvertently harmed while mixing with the infidels who have been targeted."

The Algerian Interior Ministry has reported that the attack in Bouchaoui killed an Algerian driver and wounded one American, four Britons, two Lebanese, a Canadian, and an additional Algerian.

Why the Jihadis are Feeling Good

By Douglas Farah

Several developments towards the year's end show what a good few months it has been for the worldwide jihadi movement. These are not marginal shifts in the success of the Salafist military project, but significant gains that demonstrate some of the contours of the growing, armed movement that would like to eliminate us.

Among them:

Significant advances in Somalia, creating a geographic base and state absent since being driven from Afghanistan;

The succeessful establishment of a virually independent Taliban state in northern Pakistan, allowing for a constantly-growing ability to challenge NATO militarily and the coordination of training and fighting with foreign fighters;

The dominance of their political discourse by allies in the debate in Europe and the United States;

The successful creation of an information and education sharing network that allow successful tactics in one region to be exported in short order to other groups-i.e. from Iraq to Afghanistan;
My full blog is here.

Pajamas Media: Iranian Uranium Prospectors in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Today I have a piece at Pajamas Media that reports on three overlooked aspects of the recent confidential report on Somalia produced by the United Nations. The three aspects that I explore are Iran's hunt for uranium in the Galgadud region, the report's acknowledgement of an al-Qaeda presence in the country, and its depiction of a more savvy foe than most observers realize. An excerpt:

Iran is secretly searching for uranium in war-torn Somalia, according to a confidential United Nations report obtained by Pajamas Media.

The report, which has yet to be made public, is available here at Pajamas.

The report notes that two Iranians were "engaged on matters linked to the exploration of Uranium in exchange for arms" in Dusamareb, Somalia. The arms would be given to the Islamic Courts Union (the ICU), a Taliban-like movement that controls much of Somalia.

The UN report spends little time on this surprising development, perhaps because the report's mandate is limited to monitoring violations of Somalia's arms embargo.

"We are extremely concerned about that," a military intelligence officer told Pajamas Media. This concern stems from the fact that the ICU has every incentive to cooperate with Iran: the Islamic group would be unable to mine and market the uranium on its own, and the ICU is always hungry for weapons for its war against Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG).

Dusamareb is known to be rich in uranium. Abdiweli Ali, an assistant professor of economics at Niagara University and a supporter of Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG), is originally from Dusamareb, where he received his primary school education. He reports that in the Galgadud region, where Dusamareb is located, uranium exploration has occurred since the 1940s. This exploration was put on hiatus after the fall of president Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991 put the country under the rule of rival warlords.

Read the whole article here; the UN report can be downloaded at that link. I discuss the UN report on Somalia -- along with the Iraq Study Group report and the situation in Lebanon -- on the new episode of the excellent Global Crisis Watch podcast, which can be heard here.

Jihad Versus Education in HS Today

By Walid Phares

Following is the HS Today (Homeland Security Today Journal) cover story "Jihad Versus Education." An analysis of the impact of Jihadi influence and ideology on US Education and recommendations to the US Government, executive branch and Congress. Posted on Walid Phares and FDD web sites. The piece argue that for the past two decades the American educational system has been targeted and impacted by Oil producing regimes leading to a derailing of the national security analysis. The article underlines the fact that by reaching the classrooms, Wahabi and Khumeinist influence was affecting the newsrooms.

New York Times: "Taliban Mini-State" in Waziristan

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Since early September, I've been sounding the alarm about the dangers of the Waziristan Accord that essentially cedes the mountainous region of Pakistan to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. I first criticized the Accord on this blog on September 7, and have written about it frequently since then, including in the pages of the Weekly Standard. There is now an important article in The New York Times (December 11 issue) acknowledging that the Accord has indeed been a major victory for the terrorists:

Islamic militants are using a recent peace deal with the government to consolidate their hold in northern Pakistan, vastly expanding their training of suicide bombers and other recruits and fortifying alliances with Al Qaeda and foreign fighters, diplomats and intelligence officials from several nations say. The result, they say, is virtually a Taliban mini-state.

The militants, the officials say, are openly flouting the terms of the September accord in North Waziristan, under which they agreed to end cross-border help for the Taliban insurgency that revived in Afghanistan with new force this year.

The area is becoming a magnet for an influx of foreign fighters, who not only challenge government authority in the area, but are even wresting control from local tribes and spreading their influence to neighboring areas, according to several American and NATO officials and Pakistani and Afghan intelligence officials.

This year more than 100 local leaders and government sympathizers or accused "American spies" have been killed, several of them in beheadings, as the militants have used a reign of terror to impose what President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan calls a creeping "Talibanization." Last year, at least 100 others were also killed.

The full article provides many, many more details. Read it all here.

80 Days After Thailand's Coup, the Violence Continues Unabated

By Zachary Abuza

In the 80 days since Thailand’s coup, insurgent violence in the Muslim south has continued to rage. Not only has there been no reduction in the violence, but the rate of killing has actually increased. Since the 19 September 2006 coup, 148 people have been killed, including 19 soldiers and 9 police; 230 people have been wounded, including 63 police and soldiers and six Buddhist monks. The average rate of killing before the coup in 2006 was 1.65 people per day. In the 80 days after the coup, the rate increased to 1.85 people per day. In that period, there have been 41 bombings and 4 attempted bombings, 29 arson attacks that have destroyed 15 schools. Many schools across the south remain indefinitely closed as the government continues to be unable to provide adequate security for the teachers. Bombing and arson attacks are occurring at a rate of almost one a day. In the three years since the insurgency made the news, over 1,800 people have been killed and thousands more have been wounded.

The violence continues to be targeted mainly at civilians, and the majority of the victims continue to be Muslims. The insurgents target moderate Muslims, suspected collaborators and anyone who receives a state salary. Insurgents have escalated the violence in other ways too. For the first time, students were directly wounded in an a bombing of a school.

The Thai government under coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and caretaker Prime Minister Surachud Chulanont, remain unable to stem the violence. They have made many important gestures and reforms to the Muslim community, which should be applauded. But they have continued to underestimate the degree to which the Muslim community has been alienated by the Thai state and the Islamist nature of the insurgents. They do not understand that the short and medium term goals of the insurgents are threefold: two make the region ungovernable, to provoke heavy-handed government responses that will further alienate the Muslim community, and to impose their values and authority on the local community.

The continued violence must be seen in the context of the “Langkawi talks,” both in spite of and because of. The talks, to which there was much fanfare, were over-rated because they did not include the insurgent groups that are most responsible for the violence; if they did send representatives, they were junior, and they clearly did not endorse the process. The Thai military was talking with the last generation of exiled insurgents who have absolutely no command and control over the new generation of insurgents. The government demanded a one-month cease-fire as a show of good will and of command and control, later shortened to two weeks; the insurgents cannot deliver. Both sides had preconditions for the continuation of talks, that the other was unwilling to even countenance. As such the talks have stalled. But we also must see the violence in the context of the hardliner insurgents trying to discredit those groups who entered into talks with the government and as an attempt to derail any further negotiations.

The insurgents have nothing to gain from talks: they have suffered few arrests of leaders, the government continues to alienate the community, security forces still have paltry actionable intelligence, and the insurgents continue to be able to attack at will. Until that changes, the violence will only continue.

Al-Qaida in Iraq Responds to Baker-Hamilton Report, Congratulates Somali Islamists

By Evan Kohlmann

Yesterday, the "Islamic State of Iraq"--an Al-Qaida-dominated umbrella coalition of extremist Sunni insurgents in Iraq--issued several policy statements regarding ongoing events outside of Iraq. Responding to this week's release of the findings of the Iraq Study Group (ISG), the Al-Qaida faction formerly led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had this to say:

"The military leaders of the crusader coalition forces, realized the necessity of withdrawing from the bog they put themselves in 4 years ago, because of the stupidity and recklessness of their government, and after the U.S. policy in Iraq reached a dead end; and, after the Bush administration realized too late the impossibility of achieving victory in Iraq, and impossibility of establishing a democratic state in Iraq serving as a model for the large Middle East led by Israel. After all these dreams vanished... the politicians in the Crusaders coalition stopped talking about victory or defeat in war, but all their talk and their imagination now is about one and only demand, and that is: not enabling the true mujahideen and Muslims from winning the fruits of this blessed jihad, and this is what the recommendations of the so-called "Baker-Hamilton Committee" are based upon. This committee is trying to do the same thing as the Sykes Picot accord, which was held around a century ago."

"Sykes Picot agreement came to divide the Ottman Caliphate and the region to secular countries loyal to the Crusaders occupied countries and circling around them, but Baker-Hamilton's committee came to confirm this division, and to make sure that Muslims do not cross these borders (Sykes Picot borders) in their jihad. And sadly some Muslims, mainly raised on weak positions by their clerics, they still dream of Sykes Picot's Iraq, secular national Iraq, but not the Islamic Iraq. According to their view, there is no Islamic Iraq which can be part of the large Islamic state--instead, their ultimate goal is to attain a united Iraq or a united Arab world!! But creating a Caliphate [Islamic empire] on Islamic land and working towards uniting Muslims from China to Spain does not even cross their mind--to the contrary they might reject it, because it opposes their national orientation which has been adopted by some Islamists without knowing it... All our mujahideen brothers should be aware of maneuvers and gimmicks, and not be up for grabs to the crusader enemy. And they should not enable the climbers and opportunists to grab the fruits of the blessed jihad."

In a second separate statement, the Al-Qaida-led coalition in Iraq offered its congratulations to the Islamic Courts militia in Somalia on the recent reported "victories" against their "crusader and apostate" enemies:

"We were delighted and filled of joy after hearing the good news from the jihad land in Somalia. And recently, the brothers in the Islamic Courts--may Allah grant them victory--rebuffed a large attack carried out by the apostate Somalia government's army, supported by the crusader Ethiopian army on the city of Dinsor. And we ask Allah to enable the brothers there to defeat the apostates and their allies, and to establish an Islamic State in the land of Somalia which Allah founded from jihad."

Chicago-Area Man Arrested for Allegedly Planning Mall Grenade Attack (updated with documents)

By Andrew Cochran

Derrick Shareef, 22, of Rockford, IL (a Chicago suburb), a convert to Islam, was arrested Wednesday when he met with an undercover agent to trade stereo speakers for four hand grenades and a handgun. "Shareef was acting alone and not in concert with any terrorist group, authorities said. Officials said Shareef had been under investigation since September, when he told an acquaintance that 'he wanted to commit acts of violent jihad against targets in the United States as well as commit other crimes.'.. He was charged with one count of attempting to damage or destroy a building by fire or explosion and one count of attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction."

At a press conference today, the FBI agent in charge in Chicago, Robert Grant, said that Shareef was planning his attack for December 22, the Friday before Christmas, but there was no other threat associated with Mr. Shareef. Other potential targets that Shareef allegedly discussed included government facilities such as courthouses and city hall. Agent Grant said that this type of threat has been a point of focus since the London attacks in 2005. He also said the FBI tries to identify threats developing over the internet.

You can see the charging affidavit filed by the FBI here. It quotes Shareef from a video he made in case he died in the attack: "I am from America, and this tape is to let you guys know, who disbelieve in Allah, to let the enemies of Islam know, and to let the Muslims alike know that the time for jihad is now...be strong, oh Mujahideen...May Allah protect me on this mission we conduct...so do not cry, do not mourn for me." Here are the DOJ press release on the arrest and the complaint with the charges.

This is another "lone wolf" alleged terrorist, similar to others which Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has written about on this site and elsewhere:
Daily Standard: The Problem of the Lone-Wolf Terrorist
Can Mohammed Taheri-Azar Be Prosecuted for a Terrorist Offense?

Chicago Hamas Trial Update

By Steven Emerson

HAMAS Financier Takes Stand For Prosecution

Mohammed Shorbagi, a Mosque leader in Rome, Georgia who pled guilty to providing financial support to Hamas earlier this year, testified for the prosecution at the end of November in the case of alleged Hamas operatives Muhammad Salah and Abdelhaleem Al Ashqar. FBI agents discovered Hamas documents in the Shorbagi’s home which were sent to him by Ashqar in 1995. When asked by the prosecution about Ashqar’s role as head of the Al Aqsa Educational Fund (AAEF), Shorbagi replied that the Ashqar’s responsibility was “to work toward the destruction of Israel.”

Shorbagi also testified about the role of Sheikh Jamil Hamami, listed as Hamas co-conspirator number five in the indictment (acrobat). Hamami was a West Bank-based Hamas leader who traveled to the United States to raise money for Hamas through the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) and AAEF, and met with Ashqar in Mississippi. Shorbagi also attested to his contacts at the United Association for Studies and Research (UASR), another Hamas front organization in the U.S.

During cross examination, defense attorneys attempted to discredit Shorbagi, accusing him of being an unreliable witness who lied to the FBI several times in the past. Michael Deutsch, lead attorney for Muhammad Salah, asked Shorbagi about the interrogation methods employed by the Shin Bet (Israeli Security Service). Shorbagi claimed that his cousin had once been tortured by the Shin Bet saying, “I don’t remember specifics, but I do know there was some torture,” a comment which elicited commotion from Salah’s supporters in the courtroom.

Polonium: The Terrorists' Perfect WMD? (updated 12/8)

By Andrew Cochran

The disclosure that "seven workers at the Millennium Hotel, where former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko met a contact on the day he fell ill, have tested positive for 'low levels' of polonium" further expands the serious consequences of the investigation into Litvinenko's murder. (UPDATE 12/8: A former KGB who met with Litvinenko in London has fallen ill (his lawyer denies he is in a coma) from contact with "a radioactive substance.") A CTB reader who graduated from MIT wrote me recently with the following information on polonium:

Polonium 210 can be manufactured in any small research reactor such as those found in universities around the world. The single poisoning seems to me to be a wakeup call that polonium 210 is probably the best WMD in the world. Wikipedia gives the lethal dose as 0.1 micrograms, think of a Vitamin C tablet divided into 10 million pieces. When dissolved in mild acid, such as is in the gut, a lethal dose will produce about 10 trillion atoms which tend to permeate the body and leak out of the pores. If divided and encapsulated (think time release capsule) a small amount of polonium 210 could be weaponized to float on the breeze like anthrax, it would be undetectable, indestructible and any residue would lose potency after just a few years.

I found this article about polonium, in which the polonium poisoning is described as "an unprecedented event." According to this article, polonium is available for purchase through the internet. I want to invite knowledgeable readers to submit their reactions to this matter at my e-mail address. I'll publish the best responses.

Is this the face of a future terrorist attack?

Iraqization is right, but surrendering to fascist regimes is wrong

By Walid Phares

Without any doubt, the Iraq Study Group report will become the center of a major debate on US foreign policy and the War on Terror. It contains significant components of possible successes but also recipe for disasters. It is important that the counter Terrorism community begins its review of the report and share its views with the public. Following is a summary published by Mideast Newswire summarizing some of my comments on US and Arab radios and media today.

If It Worked For Al Capone, It Can Work For Al-Qaeda

By Bill West

A report today in the New York Daily News discussed the findings of a study by New York University's Center of Law and Security related to the Federal Government’s anti-terrorism investigation and prosecution efforts since the 9/11 attacks. That study came to the somewhat mixed, if not contradictory, conclusion the Government’s efforts have thwarted additional attacks but Federal prosecutors have frequently inflated the importance of the cases. Perhaps it is arguable that thwarting additional attacks in and of itself is significant and important enough.

The NYU study appears to take issue with the fact that relatively few defendants in cases identified by the Government as “terrorism related” are actually charged with and even fewer convicted of terrorism-specific crimes. Instead, many more of these defendants are convicted of other, non-terrorism crimes such as fraud or conspiracy. Some are even charged with those “minor” immigration violations and, ho-hum, deported. Such efforts, within the law enforcement community, have generally become known as the “Al Capone” approach, taken from the way that infamous depression-era gangster in Chicago was taken down by the “Untouchable” Feds on tax violations because he was so well insulated on more serious crimes by his well-oiled criminal organization...much the way modern day organized crime, drug traffickers and, yes, terrorist organizations insulate their operatives and leaders.

Syrian nuclear program quite advanced

By Olivier Guitta

Recently, Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al Seyassah quoted European intelligence sources as saying that "Syria has an advanced nuclear program" in a secret site located in the province of Al Hassaka, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. British sources quoted by "Al Seyassah" believe that "it is President Assad's brother, colonel Maher Assad, and his cousin Rami Makhlouf, who supervise the program". This program is based on the Iraqi material that Saddam Hussein's two sons shipped to Syria before and during the war against Iraq. This explains, according to the daily newspaper, why international investigative teams found no proof of the program.

Furthermore, the British sources in Brussels affirm that "Iranian nuclear experts contribute to the Syrian program along with sixty Iraqi experts who had taken refuge in Syria since 2003 and experts from the ex-Soviet republics". British intelligence also confirm that this information is validated by their German counterparts, who was well established historically in the countries close to the ex- communist block, including Syria. Europeans fear that by focusing solely on the Iranian nuclear program, one might facilitate a much more quieter joint Iranian-Syrian program of uranium enrichment in Hassaka. Also, the geographical choice of the nuclear site is very meaningful. Indeed, because it is located in an area with a Kurdish majority, the program evades suspicions, and also striking against these installations will initially touch the Kurdish community who has historically sided with the West against the Baathists regime of Bagdad and Damascus.

Hague Action Plan To Combat Terrorism & Crime Needs Update

By Victor Comras

EU Council members meeting in Brussels December 4th called on the EU Commission, and the incoming EU Presidency (Germany) to update the Hague Action Plan which lays out critical measures for combating crime and terrorism in Europe. The Hague program, which was adopted in November 2004, provides an EU-wide action plan for tightening controls along the EU’s external borders, broadening Schengen participation and strengthening the Schengen Information System, and enhancing EU member cooperation in combating terrorism and organized crime. It also sets forth basic principles to ensure protection of fundamental rights and freedoms, including data protection.

The Communique issued after the Justice Minister’s meeting reflects some of the tension, disagreement and dissatisfaction that apparently occurred at that meeting. It noted, for example, that “insufficient progress” was being made “with regard to expanding judicial cooperation in criminal matters {including counter-terrorism} and police cooperation in particular.” The Ministers also acknowledged that “decision making mechanisms which apply in the justice and home affairs area do not always contribute to effective and efficient decision making processes.” These problems result, in part, from basic differences between EU member’s legal systems, but also from different perceptions regarding the appropriate balance between security measures and data and other civil liberty protections. There was also concern that previously adopted measures were being applied unevenly by the various EU member countries. Some of the Ministers believed that the role of the European Court of Justice should also be strengthened and new stream-lined procedures adopted, to allow the court to quickly intervene to resolve differences between EU Justice ministries on these issues.

The Justice Ministers also used their meeting to set priority areas for further work. These priorities include establishing community-wide mutual judicial recognition in civil and criminal cases, developing a comprehensive EU migration policy, and strengthening police cooperation “through the principle of availability and more operational cooperation.” They also called for improvements in police, investigative and judicial efforts re the fight against terrorism and organized crime. In this regard they also expressed the need for expanding cooperation with non EU countries.

Special emphasis was also placed on setting up a new generation Schengen Information System (SIS) to better identify, monitor and control the movement of wanted or suspicious persons within the Schengen area. The current system provides for only limited coverage re terrorism related suspects.

The Council also agreed, in principle, and pending EU Parliament review, to establish a new EU Agency for Fundamental Rights. The new Agency would provide special assistance and expertise to other government agencies to assure that measures were formulated and implemented in such a way as to fully respect fundamental rights. As here in the United States, the European Union member countries are still struggling with the right balance between safeguarding domestic and national security and preserving fundamental freedoms.

What Makes America Great?

By Dennis Lormel

Sports, commitment, work ethic, virtue, integrity, honor, patriotism…All of those denominators were present on Saturday afternoon in Philadelphia. To say I’m a sports fanatic is an understatement. There are a select group of sporting events during the course of the year that cannot be missed as far as I’m concerned. The annual Army Navy football game tops the list.

The Army Navy football game epitomizes the spirit of true sports competition. It is honest, fair and virtuous. The players are consumed by the rivalry and honor of representing their respective academies. They are also dedicated to the fraternal brotherhood of fellowship of service to their country. They exhibit a distinct sense of sportsmanship and duty unrivaled in any other amateur sporting event.
It may not be the best athletic event, but it is a stirring patriotic experience in every sense of the word.

Prior to the game, each Academy’s Corps of Cadets marches into the stadium to take their place in the stands. Throughout the game, there are camera shots of the Cadets in the stands, as well as cameo shots of Army and Navy units stationed around the world cheering for their team in a sense of good natured fun and competition. The symbolism of the event displayed through the players, students and service personnel is inspirational.

The most compelling moment isn’t the outcome of the game, but the ceremony that follows its conclusion. Tradition dictates that both teams go to the Corps of Cadets for each Academy and stand at attention while the respective school song is played. They start on the sideline of the losing team and then cross the field to the winning team’s sideline. The pure emotion of the moment is overwhelming.

Every year as I watch this ceremony and look into the faces of the players and cadets, I am brought to tears. The honesty, integrity and dedication to team, school, fellow service academy and country is heartwarming and is a moment that makes one proud to be an American. This is particularly true since many of these young adults face the prospect of defending our country through deployment to Iraq and other dangerous venues.

Wouldn’t life be great if young people who grow up in environments influenced or controlled by Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda and other hate mongers could grow up with the attributes of honesty and virtue?

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if these children could experience true virtue rather than being force fed hatred? One thing was certain Saturday at the conclusion of the Army Navy football game…America is great!

French nationals involved in Jihadi ops across the Arab world

By Olivier Guitta

Just last week, we learned that three French Jihadis on their way to Iraq to kill US troops were arrested in Syria and shipped back to France. These three young men aged 19,20 and 31 were from Tours and attended the same Salafi mosque in that quite provincial town. Most worrisome for French authorities is the fact that they were not at all viewed as extremists and did not show on any list. Most troubling one of them Mustafa El Sanharawi comes from a well to do integrated family where his father is a heart surgeon, his mother a professor and three of his siblings are currently studying medicine. Also Mustafa was a brilliant student who had just been selected to study in one of the best engineering schools in Paris. This is a case in point which shows that the poverty/non integrated explanation, that so many commentators and experts alike like to cite when talking about the reasons of joining the Jihad, does not work.

Also in another case, Egyptian authorities announced on December 4 the dismantling of a terrorist cell composed of 9 French (some of North African descent and some converts), 2 Belgian, one American and a couple of Syrian, Egyptian and Tunisian citizens. This group was in charge of recruiting and preparing potential "martyrs" for attacks in Iraq. It was in possession of documents proving their belonging to a foreign terrorist group. These arrests were made possible thanks to the testimony of two Belgian jihadis recently arrested in Saudi Arabia along with 137 other Islamists. Egypt is more and more used by Jihadis on their way to Iraq - the Syrian route might become too obvious for Western jihadis- for instance about 15 French nationals went through Egypt on their way to Iraq. About a year and half ago Egypt had kicked out four French citizens for this reason. Egypt is obviously downplaying its new undesired role and that's why French authorities are getting no help whatsoever from their Egyptian counterparts.

It is also somewhat easier for French nationals to study and move to Egypt compared to Syria for instance. A recent Renseignements Generaux- a branch of French police- pointed out the dangers of the teaching of the Cairo madrassa Al Qortoba potentially attended by French citizens.

Also interestingly, one of the main Algerian terrorists behind the 1995 wave of terror attacks in France Safe Bourrada, went straight to Cairo for six months after his liberation to start up a new cell just before being arrested again in France for alleged involvement in a major terror plot targeting the Paris-Orly airport among other things.

In total, nine French died in Iraq fighting US troops including two in suicide attacks, two more are currently jailed in Iraq and another 30 or so in France and 12 more are suspected to be in Irak right now.

French authorities and especially French anti-terror judge Jean Louis Bruguiere are very worried by this trend; in particular the fact that these young jihadis could come back to France well trained and ready to commit terror acts on French soil.

French oil conglomerate Total in Iranian oil scheme

By Olivier Guitta

The French weekly L'Express just revealed that Swiss authorities have established Total's responsibility in an Iranian oil scheme. Indeed a $39 Million account at the Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch et Cie bank in Geneva was recently flagged out because of potential illegal transactions.

Investigators found out that Total through its Geneva Credit Suisse account was feeding this account between 1998 and 2003. The Siakal account has as beneficial owner Iranian Bijan Dadfar who has interestingly no oil connections but happen to be a close associate of the Rafsanjani family. This $39 million bribe landed Total the juicy contract of South Pars. Interestingly, Total is already up to its neck in the Oil for Food scandal and two of its leaders are currently being prosecuted in Paris.

Also no one should be surprised that Total has been lobbying very hard the French government for avoiding to sanction the Iranian regime. Business interests are huge when it comes to Iran since France is Iran's second largest trading partner.

Iraq Study Group Report Available Here - Advises Iraq Pullout & "Constructive Engagement" With Iran & Syria

By Andrew Cochran

The Iraq Study Group Report is out, and here is the full report and a separate file with the Executive Summary. Other ISG files and webpages of interest:

"Iraq Study Group Fact Sheet"
"Iraq Study Group Consultations"
Iraq Study Group Members with bios
"Expert Working Groups and Military Senior Advisor Panel"

UPDATE: N.Z. Bear has converted the ISG report into a series of HTML pages so that bloggers can comment on particular statements or sections of the report and send readers directly to the text in question.

Leaked excerpts included the following:

"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al-Qaida could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized."
------
"Given the ability of Iran and Syria to influence events within Iraq and their interest in avoiding chaos in Iraq, the United States should try to engage them constructively. In seeking to influence the behavior of both countries, the United States has disincentives and incentives available. Iran should stem the flow of arms and training to Iraq, respect Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and use its influence over Iraqi Shia groups to encourage national reconciliation. The issue of Iran's nuclear programs should continue to be dealt with by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. Syria should control its border with Iraq to stem the flow of funding, insurgents and terrorists in and out of Iraq."
------
"By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq. At that time, U.S. combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special operations teams and in training, equipping, advising, force protection and search and rescue. Intelligence and support efforts would continue."
------
CT Blog experts have already opined on the possibility of "constructive engagement" with Iran and Syria:

Douglas Farah:
"The Danger of Empowering Terrorist States"

David Schenker has written these pieces on other sites:
Been There, Done That: Engaging Syria Isn't Going to Work
Assad State of Affairs
Syria's Answer

Is Hezbollah Opening Franchises in Latin America?

By Douglas Farah

There is growing concern, both in the U.S. intelligence community and among other groups, that Hezbollah, after years of careful infrastructure building, is now more actively forming franchise operations in Venezuela, Paraguay, Colombia and elsewhere. Today the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated nine individuals and supporting Hezbollah in the Tri-Border Area, one of a series of designations over the past year aimed at cutting off the expatriate flow of finances to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to a recent report Hezbollah now has a website in Venezuela, which claims responsibility for the unsuccessful Oct. 23 attempt to set off explosives near the U.S. embassy in Caracas.

The website, "Hezbollah in Venezuela" said the purpose of the attack was to call attention to the existence of a group by the same name, and to convert Latin America to Islam through Jihad. It promised more violent actions in the near future.

There is no question that Hezbollah has used Latin America for fund raising and a rear-guard area. My full blog is here.

The FBI Does Know the Difference between Sunnis and Shiites (corrected 12/6)

By Dennis Lormel

Last night, the NBC Nightly News featured a report that left the inference that the FBI has significant problems in their Counterterrorism operations because certain officials could not distinguish between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. In addition, the report focused on an Arabic speaking Agent, who has a civil law suit pending against the FBI for discrimination concerning counterterrorism promotional opportunities. In addition to the above issues, the story mentioned the lack of Arabic speaking Agents and cultural understanding in the FBI.

Unfortunately, the NBC News report was narrowly focused and one sided. It named two former Senior Counterterrorism Executives who could not explain the difference between Sunnis and Shiites during tape recorded depositions taken in the civil law suit mentioned above. A third Senior Executive discussed the importance of leadership capability over investigative experience during his deposition, which was aired by NBC. What the NBC report failed to disclose was that there were many, many, many more FBI Executives, Agents and Analysts who could distinguish the difference between Sunnis and Shiites and who understood cultural considerations. I was one of them.

UK Banks Bowing to Risk of Action from US on Iran

By Jonathan Winer

There is growing evidence that US pressure on Iran is having an impact on what had been Iran's major conduits to the rest of the world through the City of London. They seem to be pulling out of Iran-related business right and left. As one senior anonymous London banker is quoted as saying to The Independent, "The consequences of not toeing the American line on Iran have not been made clear, but we were left in no doubt that we might not want to find out."

Immigration Services Bureau's Ineptitude Endangers Americans

By Michael Cutler

This article published by "Government Executive" is of great significance because of one simple fact: the immigration system has no integrity! As you read the article (about the processing of up to 30,000 citizenship applications in 2005 without reviewing critical background files), you will notice that a link has been provided to a GAO report that documents the ineptitude and incompetence of USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) in carrying out what is arguably its most serious mission, the adjudication of applications for United States citizenship. I would urge you to read that report.

Think about the implications of a statement made by Senator Charles Grassley, a senator from Iowa, that I will repeat here. "It only takes one missing file of somebody with links to a terrorist organization to become an American citizen," Grassley said in a statement. "A terrorist can be unsuccessful thousands of times, but we have to be perfect all the time. We can't afford to be handing out citizenship with blinders on."

Clearly Senator Grassley's statement makes it clear that he understands the grave risks posed by the ineptitude of the USCIS. In fact, on September 1 of this year, he testified at a field hearing conducted by the House Judiciary Committee in Dubuque, Iowa on the amnesty bill that was passed by the Senate (S. 2611). He spoke eloquently at that hearing. In fact, I testified at that very same hearing and so I heard Senator Grassley deliver his prepared testimony and provide other testimony about the failings of S.2611. His statement is worth reviewing, and you can read the hearing transcript here. The point is that USCIS is running an obviously fatally flawed program to naturalize aliens, where the emphasis is on the elimination of the backlog and not on making an effort to perform a cursory review of the relevant immigration files of as many as 30,000 cases this year alone!

The Next War is Already Beginning

By Douglas Farah

As the Bush administration struggles to find a way forward in Iraq, the next major conflict there is already underway by proxy armies determined to impose their own agenda in the ugly situation that is likely to get uglier soon.

The next war being fought is between Iran, through the Shi'ite, Iranian-backed militias and infiltrated Iraqi army, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab Sunni world, anxious now to protect fellow Sunni believers who make up the bulk of the internal Iraqi resistence. All of this will make the situation worse for U.S. forces on the ground and further restrict realistic U.S. policy options.

Both groups support terrorist networks that pose direct threats to the United States and the West. Both sides want the United States to be defeated and forced into a long-term retreat in the war on Islamist radicals. There is no good side here.

The London Daily Telegraph says Nawaf Obaid, a senior Saudi government security adviser-is publicly considering providing anti-US Sunni military leaders with funding, logistical support and even arms - as Iran already does for Shia militia in Iraq. My full blog is here.

HizbAllah's Offensive in Lebanon: Day Three

By Walid Phares

On the third day of HizbAllah’s campaign to takeover the Lebanese Government, more sectors from civil society began to rise. But they weren’t rising with the pro-Iranian militia in as much as they were rising to oppose its move. However on the other hand, it was further noticed that a number of Western media increased their support to Nasrallah’s organization.

Is There Any Linkage between ULFA and LTTE?

By Animesh Roul

Is there any operational and logistical linkages between Sri Lanka’s the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and India’s northeast based United Liberation front of Assam (ULFA)? According to the Director General of Police of Tripura, there is strong ties between LTTE and ULFA. “LTTE channel has been utilised by the ULFA for maritime contacts, sea routes, because ULFA also owns a few trawlers operating from Chittagong and it connects them right upto Cambodia”, Ghansyam Murari Srivastava, the police chief was quoted in the media. He further said that the police have definite evidence on the link, adding that in Lakhipathar camp of ULFA, there were three LTTE men who organized training camps in the past.

The whole discussion erupted over the alleged link when recently a news item on the Sri Lankan portal, www.lankaweb.com (referring to Bangladesh based Journalist’s article on a Blog) indicated that the LTTE was supplying arms to the ULFA through its merchant navy. The article claimed the LTTE's merchant navy have transported a large consignment of arms and ammunition through Southeast Asia and delivered it to the ULFA in the past. It also claimed that Pakistan’s ISI introduced LTTE's arms suppliers to ULFA leaders and two Tamils were arrested in Cox's Bazaar in Bangladesh when a huge quantity of ammunition meant for the ULFA was seized. The author of the article “Insurgency in North East India”, however, never substantiated the linkages with any recent activities between the two outfits.

HizbAllah's Offensive in Lebanon: DayTwo

By Walid Phares

In its second day, HizbAllah’s offensive in Lebanon against the democratically elected Government has maintained pressures on various levels. Following are the main axis of activities:

HizbAllah’s deployment

By mid week end, several thousands of HizbAllah’s members, cadres and officers have settled inside downtown Beirut, surrounding the Prime Minister’s office. The militia erected dozens of tents in a military fashion, with 30 fighters in each tent. Sources from the Lebanese Army described the “deployment” of the tents as a bivouac-maneuvering of about three brigades, “clearly following the Iranian military code,” said the sources. By late Saturday evening early Sunday morning, the Lebanese Army was able to move a number of these tents to the sides opening a path to the Government building.

However, security sources noted that HizbAllah’s units are positioning themselves in several circles around the center of Beirut. There are no weapons apparent but according to observers, the “demonstrators” can be armed in less than three hours and “become” the equivalent of half a “division” in the downtown area and close to a division inside Sunni Beirut.

Sunni resistance begins

In the early hours of Saturday through the first hours of Sunday, several incidents took place between HizbAllah’s cells moving into several neighborhoods in mostly Sunni West Beirut, and between local Sunni youth. In most of these urban clashes, with clubs and stones, HizbAllah’s members withdrew to their quarters in downtown and the southern suburbs. Observers believe these incidents were a sort of testing on behalf of HizbAllah’s military command to assess the level of “popular resistance” against its stretching inside Muslim Beirut. It is to note that Sunni areas have been displaying more opposition to Nasrallah’s militia in more than one area. More noticeably in the Eastern Bekaa where entire villages such as Kamed al Lawz and surrounding areas have erupted in small demonstrations against the pro-Iranian coalition. Also in Tripoli, and despite the presence of some solid pro-Syrian Sunni influence, anti-HizbAllah manifestations are taking place.

Source: Baidoa Vulnerable, Islamic Courts Tactically Capable

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I spoke with a military intelligence officer yesterday about the situation in Somalia. (For background on Somalia, see the Weekly Standard article that I co-wrote with Bill Roggio.) He said that he expects Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) to fall once the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) begins its final push to overtake the TFG's capital of Baidoa. Although Ethiopian forces are currently protecting the TFG, there have been three major engagements between the Ethiopians and the ICU to date -- and the ICU emerged as the winner each time. This is noteworthy because standing armies usually beat irregular forces in open battle, but this has not been the case thus far in Somalia.

In terms of TTP (tactics, techniques, and procedures) the ICU is fighting more like the Iraqi insurgency than like the Chechens. Their TTP is also similar to that displayed by Hizballah in Lebanon. One clear implication of this is that foreign fighters are both present and influential in Somalia. At present, this point may no longer be worth making, since the presence of foreign fighters in Somalia is undeniable to any objective observer. The best estimate of foreign fighter presence is the figure of 1,000 contained in the confidential UN report that has been leaked to some media sources. These foreign fighters have been accessing Somalia through Yemen.

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys (head of the ICU's consultative shura council) and his compatriots are some of the most capable jihadist leaders to date in terms of their ability to negotiate and their understanding of the need to control atrocities that would hurt them. The fact that we haven't seen the kind of excesses that the Taliban engaged in during its rise to power helps bolster the ICU's claim that they are a force for stability in Somalia. An example of the Taliban's atrocities can be seen in Ahmed Rashid's book Taliban, when he describes the August 1998 slaughter of Hazaras:

What followed was another brutal massacre, genocidal in its ferocity, as the Taliban took revenge on their losses the previous year. A Taliban commander later said that Mullah Omar had given them permission to kill for two hours, but they had killed for two days. The Taliban went on a killing frenzy, driving their pick-ups up and down the narrow streets of Mazar shooting to the left and right and killing everything that moved -- shop owners, cart pullers, women and children shoppers and even goats and donkeys. Contrary to all injunctions of Islam, which demands immediate burial, bodies were left to rot on the streets. "They were shooting without warning at everybody who happened to be on the street, without discriminating between men, women and children. Soon the streets were covered with dead bodies and blood. No one was allowed to bury the corpses for the first six days. Dogs were eating human flesh and going mad and soon the smell became intolerable," said a male Tajik who managed to escape the massacre.

Within jihadist circles, there is a general trend toward the more restrained model of the ICU and away from the Taliban's overt brutality. This trend can be glimpsed, for example, in the Iraq insurgency under the new leadership of Abu Ayyub al-Masri and also in Pakistan, where the jihadists are trying to co-opt a large segment of Pakistani society. This move toward a more restrained kind of fighting serves to the jihadists' advantage.

Previewing Venezuela's Elections

By Aaron Mannes

NRO published my article, Watch Chavez Run previewing the Venezuelan elections this Sunday.

It isn't strictly a terrorism issue, but Chavez has a growing alliance with Iran, has been providing FARC a safe haven, and has been a general source of instability for the region - so it merits watching carefully.

To read the article, my other writings on Venezuela, and ny ongoing coverage of Venezuela's election (along with the likely contentious aftermath) visit my blog TerrorProfiles.

HizbAllah offensive in Lebanon: Day One

By Walid Phares

After serious warnings delivered by HezbAllah secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah since early November, the generalized offensive to bring down the Cedars Revolution-backed Government has begun. As of the early hours of Friday December 1, 2006, thousands of HizbAllah members and pro-Syrian militants took the streets of Beirut, hurdling from all Lebanese areas. The demonstrators started a series of sit-ins around the offices of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and in other surrounding neighborhoods and public places to “suffocate the cabinet into resignation or collapse” as Lebanese sources said. Following are bullet points to be updated as events will develop:

HizbAllah’s “army”

HizbAllah has mobilized all its membership as well as all persons on payrolls of the organization and in the various bureaucracies controlled by the pro-Iranian militia. In addition, the entire pro-Syrian movements in the country such as the Baath, National-Socialist Syrian Party, and politicians such as Michel Aoun, Omar Karame, Sleiman Frangieh and others. Added to this list, pro-Syrian and Jihadi elements from the Palestinian camps in Lebanon. And since the Lebanese-Syrian borders haven't been sealed by a multinational force, loads of buses carrying members of the Syrian Baath, have been crossing the international frontier to join the anti-Government rally. The total number of the participants would be calculated as equivalent to the pro-Syrian March 8, 2005 demonstration led by HizbAllah then plus an undetermined number of Palestinian and Syrian elements. And since General Aoun shifted from the Cedars Revolution to an open alliance with HizbAllah few months ago, a number of his hard-core followers are expected to join the crowd.