Iran Sanctions: The UN Finally Acts –But Much too Softly

By Victor Comras

The UN Security Council finally acted and imposed a limited set of sanctions on Iran for its continued defiance of IAEA norms re uranium enrichment. I have long argued that sanctions will be needed to turn Iran around. But, the sanctions measures adopted today by the UN Security Council (res 1737 (2006) were forged, not on the basis of what might work, but rather on the lowest common denominator basis achievable among the Perm Five. While they place some pressure on Iran there is good reason to doubt that they will prove sufficient to convince Iran to change course. Further measures will, most likely, be necessary. Nevertheless, this limited first step is better than no step at all.

Sanctions can be very useful tools when carefully crafted, used wisely, and in conjunction with other measures and policies designed to achieve clear objectives. I believe that substantive economic and trade sanctions could be used effectively to dissuade Iran from continuing to pursue its nuclear weapons program. Iran’s economy is very fragile, and the current economic situation has already created growing internal opposition to the policies of Iran’s erratic President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But the measures so far adopted are not designed to disrupt or distress Iran’s economy or normal trade and business activities. Nor do they penalize Iran’s leaders. Rather, they are directed only at hampering (they certainly won’t stop) Iran’s access to nuclear material and technology. They are unlikely to foster increased domestic pressure on the Ahmadinejad government to change course.

The sanctions are very narrowly targeted. They direct all countries to freeze the assets of 10 Iranian entities and 12 individuals associated with Iran’s centrifuge programs, its heavy water reactor at Arak and its pilot uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The 12 individuals include a vice president of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and officials associated with the Arak and Natanz plants. The measures also impose a limited ban on materials and technology that could contribute to “enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water related activities, or to the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems.” One should note, however, that these same items supposedly have already long been restricted under various international agreements such as the Nuclear Supplier Group, the Wassenaar agreement and the NPT itself.

While the Security Council Resolution clearly broadens the obligations on all countries to inhibit Iran’s acquisition of nuclear related materials, it certainly treads lightly -- equipment for light-water reactors is not included, nor is low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel elements. This exempts an $800 million light-water reactor Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr. Each country also remains free to interpret these restrictions for itself and to use its own discretion to determine which items must be barred. They are required only to inform the Security Council of any dual use items they actually export to Iran. I fear that, as with the timid UN sanctions imposed on North Korea (DPRK), the Iran sanctions won't get very much mileage.

It is already clear from Iran’s reaction to the new sanctions, and from the luke warm reception given it by US and other world leaders, that much more will be required to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. In the absence of more stringent Security Council action Europe and Japan must join with the United States in imposing serious trade measures that bring real costs to the Iranian economy for continuing its quest for nuclear weapons.

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