Counterterrorism Blog

Last week, I posted on the possibility that terrorists could use polonium 210, the radioactive substance which killed former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, as a weapon of mass destruction. I asked for comments and subsequently received more e-mails than I've ever received about a single post. Here are excerpts from some of the best:

On the substance itself, Philip Henika sent this link to the World Health Organization's "Polonium-210: basic facts and questions" page with this: "Po-210 represents a radiation hazard only if taken into the body – by inhalation, ingestion, or getting into a wound... The toxicity of Po-210 is much higher than that of cyanides, for example. Nevertheless it does not represent a risk to human health as long as it remains outside the body." He also sent a link to this piece in the St. Petersburg (Russia) Times in which the author wrote, "Since the 19th century it has been customary for blood enemies in the Caucasus to poison each other with polonium-210." (UPDATE: That last statement cannot be true; the Global Security website on polonium notes, "Prior to 1944, polonium had not been isolated in pure form or in any appreciable quantity" (tip to Brian Kramer). Larry Johnson, former CT Blog Contributing Expert, wrote that the agents of the old Soviet Union used polonium often to poison enemies fo the state. So I assume some of them would know how to process and handle significant amounts of polonium.

Christopher Dickey, the Paris bureau chief and veteran reporter at Newsweek, sent me this link to his blog, in which he debunked claims that you can easily buy polonium through the internet.

As far as its potential as a WMD, polonium is already carried through smoke in common cigarettes. A polonium FAQ on "USA Today" states that "Polonium occurs in nature at very low levels... And a cigarette contains less than a billionth of the amount of polonium implicated in Litvinenko's death, according to a 1996 study in the journal Radiologic Technology... elevated readings of polonium could be explained away as the effects of heavy smoking..." And a professor wrote in an op-ed that "I suspect that even some of our more enlightened smokers will be surprised to learn that cigarette smoke is radioactive."

Jeffrey Melton, a "radiation safety buff" and industrial hygeine graduate student at the Universty of Illinois at Chicago, wrote the following:

"Polonium is most certainly dangerous, but it is far from an ideal WMD. Yes, polonium-210 is made by neutron bombardment of bismuth inside of a research reactor, but it is still imbedded in the bismuth metal. Bismuth is a rather non-toxic metal, and extracting polonium is fairly challenging. In all likelihood, you will not have much polonium to work with. This is compounded by how fast polonium decays. Half of your source is going to be gone in 138 days, starting as soon as it is made. Undetectable? Polonium is VERY easy to detect... This is also why polonium is showing up everywhere - the detection limit is very, very low. Polonium-210 emits alpha radiation, which is nasty inside of you, but it lacks penetrating power. It quite literally cannot go through the outermost layer of your skin, a piece of paper, or even a small amount of air. A good quality dust mask and decent hygeine would keep you safe. Disposable coveralls and a lead or asbestos approved respirator would allow you to work in the area just fine."

UPDATE: Just saw this on the UPI wire by a Russian journalist with a physicist describing the Litvinenko murder as "a rehearsal for a dirty bomb" and claiming "The incident shows that something dangerous is cooking in the terrorist kitchen, with menacing ideas and plans that can generally be described as a crime."

CONCLUSION: A terrorist (or group) with patience, explosives training and the assistance of knowledgeable agents (and I'm told there are numerous "rogue" ex-KGBers out there) could weaponize polonium into an inhalable mixture for a deadly but brief attack in an urban area. Whether a terrorist group would go through the exercise is a topic for another discussion.