Counterterrorism Programs Flat in CR

By Michael Kraft

Barring an unexpected Senate floor amendment next week, the Continuing Resolution working its way through Congress will again hamper efforts to counter global terrorism by strengthening the capabilities of vulnerable friendly countries around the world.

The Continuing Resolution that passed the House of Representatives Wednesday night by a 286-140 vote keeps most government program funding for the rest of the fiscal year at last year’s FY 2006 level. This affects State Department’s Antiterrorism Training Assistance (ATA) Program and related smaller programs that give courses ranging from airport security to bomb detection, coping with weapons of mass destruction and countering terrorism funding.

The Administration had requested $135.6 million for the ATA program for FY 2007. Congress last year approved $122 million.

Top Al Qaeda Financier Dead, Denied Links to Osama to His Dying Day

By Zachary Abuza

Mohammad Jamal Khalifah, the brother-in-law of Osama bin Laden was killed during a robbery during a business trip to Madagascar, where he had invested in gem mines. Khalifah was a key financier of several Southeast Asian militant groups, particularly those in the Philippines.

He has always denied involvement in supporting terrorist and insurgent groups. For example in an emailed statement to CNN last weekend he wrote: "I have never given any money to any group or persons that include the Abu Sayyaf." "It is common knowledge that the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1989, the same year that Abu Sayyaf came to the news in the Philippines. It means that the Jihad was already over in Afghanistan... The war in Afghanistan became a civil war, between the Afghans. And Osama bin Laden himself was not there and left Afghanistan in 1989... I left Afghanistan in 1986 after my disagreement with him and we became apart from each other... So what volunteers was he [Khadaffy Janjalani] talking about?"

Khalifah got a total whitewash in Lawrence Wright’s The Looming Towers, where he disavowed any relationship with Osama. Wright should have done his homework on Khalifah. My file on Khalifah is thick, but here is some of the evidence against him:

• When Khalifah was arrested in the United States, on 16 December 1994, he was arrested with Mohammad Loay Bayazid, a confidante of Osama bin Laden and believed to be one of the founders of Al Qaeda. At the time he was the director of the Benevolence International Foundation, an international charity with an office in Chicago, which was shut down by US government officials in December 2001 for financing terrorism. BIF was very active in Bosnia in the 1990s and became an important conduit for Al Qaeda as well as Chechnyan militants. Bayazid was detained with Khalifah, though released. He subsequently fled the country. In 1993-94 he was charged with procuring fissile material for Al Qaeda.
• Khalifah was arrested in the US with documents about a militant training camp he had established for the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. He was in the US to fund raise for the group. One document detailed the “curriculum” that included coursework on assassinations, bomb-making, weapons, and military training. It emphasized the importance of “jihad” work, and Islamic movements and organizations. It focused the class on assassinations, “full military training, and IED construction.
• Khalifah asserts his innocence and claims that he was acquitted in US courts. He was not acquitted in US courts. He never even left the immigration courts. He was deported to Jordan where he had been sentenced in absentia for supporting terrorism. The US didn’t really have much on the guy at the time. He had broken few US laws in his two weeks in the country. Jordan had more standing.
• Khalifah established the branch offices in the Philippines of the Muslim World League and the sister agency, International Islamic Relief Organization. While the charities did some important social work, the IIRO’s literature made clear that the primary aims of the group was memorization of the Koran, hardly a charitable office. One Abu Sayyaf defector said that “Only 10 to 30 percent of the foreign funding goes to the legitimate relief and livelihood projects and the rest go to terrorist operations.”
• Khalifah was able to divert funds to the MILF and Abu Sayyaf by hiring members of these groups, their close family members or supporters to positions in the IIRO.
o In Tawi Tawi, the director of the IIRO branch office was Abdul Asmad, the Abu Sayyaf’s intelligence chief, before being killed on 10 June 1994;
o The IIRO Director in Zamboanga was Ustadz Bajunaid Ibrahim, the brother of MILF peace panelist Prof. Moner Bujunaid;
o The Director of IIRO in Cotabato/Maguindanao was Ustadz Omar Pasigan, a cousin of Ebrahim el Haj Murad, the current Chairman of the MILF, and a member of the MILF’s Central Committee;
o The Director of IIRO in Davao Province, Ustadz Abdul Moin Galmac, was a relative of MILF chair for military affairs in Davao.
o The IIRO funded an orphanage in Cotabato run by Dr. Abas Candao, the brother of the MILF advisor Zaccarias Candao. Dr. Candao is currently the director of the MILF’s Bangsamoro Development Agency.
• As soon as Khalifah was unable to return to the Philippines and funding for the ASG dried up, it began their spree of kidnapping.
• Khalifah founded another charity, the International Relations and Information Center, in the Philippines in 1994. The IRIC, in reality, was a complex umbrella organization, with a number of affiliated charities and organizations that to this day are being implicated in supporting terrorism in the Philippines. They include: Islamic Wisdom Worldwide Mission, Islamic Presentation Committee, Islamic World Committee, Islamic Da’wah Council of the Philippines Islamic Da’wah and Guidance International Inc, and International Islamic Efforts Foundation.
• The IRIC was the primary funding mechanism for Khalid Sheik Mohammed, Ramzi Yousef, and Wali Khan Amin Shah’s attempt to blow up 11 US jetliners in early-1995, in what was known as Oplan Bojinka. Khalifah acknowledged a close friendship with Shah, a close confidante of Bin Laden’s, though denied any knowledge that Shah was part of a terrorist cell. Shah, who is sill under US detention, has detailed Khalifah’s use of the IRIC to fund the Ramzi Yousef plot.
• As the FBI Special Agent in charge of Khalifah’s case wrote in his affidavit. “In November 1994, there was a pattern of telephone traffic between [Wali] Khan’s apartment and the cellular telephone of Khalifa [sic], whole Yousef was proceeding at about that time with the purchase of chemicals.”
• One of Khalifah’s last acts in the Philippines was the opening of a branch of Muwafaq in Manila in October 1994. Muwafaq, or the “Blessed Relief” charity, was established as a charitable trust in the tax haven of Isle of Man, which later moved to Jersey that was managed by Yassim al-Qadi, who has been identified as a key associate of Osama bin Laden. The foundation was endowed by a group of wealth Saudi businessmen and investors, including, Khalid bin Mahfouz, a former chief of the National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia and financial advisor to the Saudi royal family, who appeared on Al Qaeda’s “Golden Chain” list of top financiers. In 1999, a Saudi Arabian government audit of the NCB discovered that Mahfouz had transferred roughly $3 million to Al Qaeda. Muwafaq, which had a $20 million endowment, was found to have sent millions of dollars to Al Qaeda in the 1990s before it was shut down.
• On 3 August 2006, the US Treasury department designated the Philippine Branch of the IIRO as a terrorist financier. Long overdue, but testimony of the deep-rooted nature of Khalifah’s networks.

Iraqi Passport Blunders: Another Example of Security Loopholes

By Michael Cutler

This is the sort of story on passport blunders that is significant on many levels. It points out how bureaucrats can be corrupted or can be incompetent or both. It also shows how passports, which are supposed to provide a secure means of identifying international travelers, are not always sufficient. While Iraq is not a participant in the Visa Waiver Program, I worry that similar situations can and have occurred with countries which participate in the Visa Waiver Program.

Most people are compassionate when they encounter political refugees. We are often reminded of the Holocaust and other human tragedies of similar nature with many victims of political strife and war. However, the bad guys who are intent on accomplishing their nefarious goals are all too happy to conceal their true identities and make all sorts of claims, often playing on the sympathies of those who would seek to help them. I have on occasion made the point that one of the biggest differences between decent people and bad guys such criminals and terrorists is that when a decent person wakes up in the morning, he goes through his belongings to figure out what he wants to wear. A criminal or terrorist, on the other hand, goes through his stuff to figure out who he wants to be.

Here we have a situation where 26,000 people availed themselves of the opportunity to alter their identities. That by itself is a crime, but what is more disturbing is why? Why would these people do this? Did they do this in order to conceal a criminal history? Did they do this to conceal their true nationality? Did they do this to embed themselves in Stockholm or some other country as did the terrorists who attacked our nation? Might the terrorists have done this to be able to create a fictitious identity for themselves in a country such as Sweden or Norway, intent on eventually going to another country that they want to ultimately attack, such as the United States? These are all very disturbing questions with no answers that are immediately available. The Iraqi ambassador attributed this disaster to being unable to verify the true identities of these people because of a lack of resources. It is also entirely possible that this was a matter of corruption or a combination of both. Consider the quote from that article:

"Details surrounding the fraudulent passport applications first emerged in Norwegian press after police cracked a forgery ring in Oslo. The Iraqi ambassador to Sweden informed Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten that the embassy had issued passports based on false documentation simply because it did not have the resources to check the authenticity of the paperwork."

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Releases Important New Book (updated video link)

By Andrew Cochran

The newest book by one of our Contributing Experts, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross' "My Year Inside Radical Islam: A Memoir," officially launches tomorrow, and I predict it will attract a broad readership. Daveed tells the story of his work for the U.S. branch of the al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, one of the many charities found to be a financing funnel to Islamic terrorists, and his eventual cooperation with the FBI's investigation. But he also recounts his personal journey of faith into and then out of radical Islam before, during, and after the period of work with al-Haramain. I read a late draft, and I found his insider's account of that terrorist financing vehicle fascinating, while his personal journey was moving; this book is unique in the genre for that reason. Daveed wrote this article for Reader's Digest and was interviewed by FrontPageMagazine.com. You can see his interview on the Fox News Channel's "Hannity & Colmes" program.

A Peek Into Islamist Banking in the United States

By Douglas Farah

The Wall Street Journal has a fascinating story (viewable for free for a few days) on the criminal tax investigation launched by the Justice Department into the activities of one of the largest Islamist banking entities-Dar al-Maal Al- Islami Trust (DMI). (Co-Editor's Note: The story is now available as an Acrobat file in the CT Library with express permission by the WSJ and with our appreciation.)

The case centers on investments made through a company called Overland Capital Group Inc. Two of Overland's offices in Boston were searched last week by IRS officials, according filings by federal prosecutors.

No one has been charged with any offense and the search warrant remains under seal. What is interesting is that the motion disclosing the investigation was filed by a prosecutor from the DOJ's Counterterrorism division.

Might this be the Al Capone method of getting at opaque Islamist financial structures in the United States?

As is often the case with Islamic banking institutions, the route to DMI is circuitous and not designed to be easily followed. DMI was founded in 1981 by the Arab Gulf elite as an Islamist alternative to the Western banking system. My full blog is here.

Musharraf's Inability to Control Pakistani Air Force is a Sign of Weakness

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

A new article on Adnkronos International by Syed Saleem Shahzad provides a glimpse of Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf's weakness. After last week's bomb blasts in Islamabad and Peshawar, Musharraf asked Pakistan's air force to carry out a strike on Islamabad's largest madrassa. Two of the Pakistani Taliban's leading ideologues, Ghazi Abdul Rasheed and Maulana Abdul Aziz, are holed up there.

Shahzad reports:

[S]ources told AKI that Musharraf reportedly told a gathering of senior officials at a meeting in Rawalpindi: "I don’t want them in federal capital. If you are unable to arrest them . . . shoot them." Those attending reportedly disagreed categorically with the idea of an air strike in the capital city, and pointed out that the students of the influential clerics have already staged a powerful protest in the past few days against the demolition of two mosques in Islamabad and they are a force to be reckoned with.

In other words, Musharraf asked the air force to carry out a strike in Pakistan's capital city, and they refused to do so. According to a senior U.S. military intelligence source that I spoke with, the reason Musharraf asked the air force to carry out the strike is because Pakistan's army had already refused to raid the mosque. The source said that this further demonstrates the problem with Pakistan's security services: they are too close to the fundamentalists, such that Musharraf cannot exert full control over his military.

Which brings to mind a chilling thought: if Musharraf is unable to order an air strike in his own capital city, how can he control his nuclear arsenal?

New Anti-Terrorism Caucus Formed in U.S. House

By Zeyno Baran

Today at a press conference in the U.S. Capitol, U.S. Representative Sue Myrick (R-NC), along with Representatives Bud Cramer (D-AL), Kay Granger (R-TX), and Ben Chandler (D-KY) formally announced they have formed a new bipartisan Congressional Anti-Terrorism Caucus. Myrick, Cramer, Granger, and Chandler are the co-chairs of the new caucus.

The Caucus mission statement states that it “serves to educate Members of Congress, their staff and the general public about the threats to our country that are fueled by extremist ideologies. The Caucus recognizes that terrorism is not a Democrat or Republican problem; it is a critical issue for all Americans. To this end, the Caucus will facilitate an educational process and healthy exchange of ideas in a bipartisan setting.”

Focus on the threat from “extremist ideologies” is much-needed and long-overdue. The new Caucus will meet in the coming months to hear from leading experts on issues such as terrorist financing and their use of the internet.

In her press release, Representative Sue Myrick states, “Terrorists don’t target Democrats or Republicans. They target Americans, and this is why we must face this issue as Americans… Members of Congress and the American public must know the threats we face from radical jihadist terrorists. This caucus will give Congress the tools and resources it needs to communicate those threats to the public, as well as help them make more informed decisions when it comes to terrorist issues…. This caucus is long overdue, and I’m glad we are doing this. Americans have desired to know what is really going on and what it means to them. My hope is that this caucus will be able to spur on an educated national dialogue on this issue so that we can unite as Americans did during World War II.”

First time suicide attack in Eilat

By Olivier Guitta

In fact until today Eilat has always been spared. Eilat is one of Israel's main tourist destinations and had almost played the safety card.
This is no more: this morning's suicide attack is a horrible wake up call that no place is terror-free in Israel. The implications of today's suicide attack are multiple: first the Israeli government will be under pressure to act because it cannot allow one of its largest revenue source to be tarnished, i.e. tourism, second it seems almost sure now that the bomber did not come from Jordan as initially reported but rather from Egypt. Indeed Jordanian and Egyptian sources have confirmed this. According to TV station Al Arabyia, Egyptian authorities have recently arrested two members of that three men commando which was to strike in Eilat.
Also Egyptian troops in the Sinai are in high alert for potential additional terror attacks.
After the bombings in Taba directed at Israeli tourists, Israel realized that desert beduins had become radicalized and could represent a potential threat to Israel.If the Sinai now becomes a hotbed for terrorism, Israel would have to count on Egypt for clamping down. But if Egypt is not successful or not willing to act, it's not far fetched to assume that Israel will one way or another take care of the problem. What it could mean for Israel is a potential other war front...

Is Treasury Bank Freeze Real or Phony Issue Stalling NK Talks?

By Jonathan Winer

As Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury's Daniel Glaser meets in Beijing with North Korea, it remains difficult to assess whether North Korea is using Treasury's freeze of $24 million of its assets in a Macau bank as an excuse not to move forward with six-party talks on halting its proliferation program, is genuinely feeling a pinch as a result of the sanctions, or is simply outraged in principle that the U.S. could grab its money through imposing sanctions from afar.

The six-party talks are due to begin February 8. But the North Koreans are refusing to discuss anything but how and when the U.S. will unfreeze some or all of the assets, which the U.S. has identified as being the proceeds of illicit activity. The question will be whether the U.S. is in a position to offer the North Koreans some of the assets back to take the issue off the table on the basis that those assets aren't traceable to particular criminal activity, or will find some process solution for resolving the issue.

At Davos this week, Treasury Deputy Secretary Robert Kimmitt made it clear that North Korea had asked for the talks, that the U.S. viewed progress was being made in helping North Korea understand the "technical elements" of the freeze, and that on substance, the U.S. would be taking a hard line. `According to Kimmitt, "these are a set of talks, from our perspective, designed to make clear that the action that we took was narrowly targeted, focused on illicit conduct - and the way to cure it is to foreswear such conduct, make restitution for what's been done in the past, and move forward.''

Apparently, the North Koreans will be asked to show clean sources for any funds to secure their release. That may not be easy in light of their history of using Macao to pass counterfeit U.S. currency, launder drug money, and to handle smuggled goods.

Africa: Different Paths to Success and Failure

By Douglas Farah

The designation of two South Africans for suspected ties to al Qaeda is the latest public evidence of the radical Islamist pipeline that runs through the heart of sub-Saharan Africa.

The U.S. military and part of the Intelligence Community are slowly focusing on the spreading threat there. As my friend Victor Comras noted on the Counterterrorism Blog, obtaining this designation package has been a long and arduous process, with little support from South Africa or the United Nations. Here is another interesting article on the Imam involved.

But what is just as interesting as the stories of possible Islamist penetrations are those of the Islamists' possible failures. The Project for the Research of Islamist Movements portrays al Qaeda's efforts to mobilize _jihadist_ fighters to Darfur as long on effort and short on results, despite the obvious interest of Osama bin Laden and other core al Qaeda leaders to raising up an Islamist force to fight there. My full blog is here..

New U.S. House Homeland Security Chairman Discusses Agenda

By Andrew Cochran

The leadership in the U.S. Congress changed hands this month, and the new chairman of the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, laid out his legislative agenda in comments today at a forum. With respect to the counterterrorism arena, Rep. Bennie Thompson pledged to pursue mass transit, rail, and bus security measures; to double the size of the Border Patrol; and to ensure improved intelligence and information sharing between the federal, local, and tribal governments. He also wants to "revisit" the fence on the Mexican border authorized by the Congress last year, and will probably get agreement from the Bush Administration, which has never really wanted a physical fence, as Michael Cutler posted about last year. Chairman Thompson is in a unique position, at the start of this Congress, to pursue energetic oversight of terrorism-related issues involving DHS and to push important and needed homeland security legislation through the House (see Victor Comras' post on potential priorities). His roadblock, as he expressed near the end of his discussion, will be the closely divided U.S. Senate.

Redirecting Iraq’s campaign

By Walid Phares

In short, President George W. Bush’s plan for “redirecting” the Iraq campaign is logical, in line with the war on terror and targets the correct enemies of Iraq, of democracies and of the United States. But the plan needs to fit within a global vision of winning the global conflict with the lJihadists, on a long term policy, win the support of the new Congress, and be well-explained to the American people by the various levels of the Administration. This is where the beef is. On the other hand, the response by the Democratic led Congress as stated by Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) is also logical, touches sensitive issues if the Iraq battlefield, and lays out the normal outcome of a strategic success, that is the return of the troops. So are the White House and Congress in harmony? We will see. Both have advanced what is essentially logical. The President challenge is to make sure his bureaucracy follows him thoroughly, and the Congress’ challenge is to make sure the American public sees the big picture the legislators are not revealing yet for the future. Let’s wait and see how Washington’s new dual approach will fare in the very near future.

Following are quick comments on the main relevant points in the President’s speech and the Democratic response immediately the announcements.

Treasury To Take Away Kim Jong il's iPods and Cognac

By Jonathan Winer

How do you get an evil dictator who starves his people to understand that you really mean business when you say he has to stop his nuclear proliferation program?

Treasury has decided you do it by taking away his iPods, sports cars, and booze.

This provocative announcement came today from Treasury as it sends out its seasoned Korea sanctions specialist Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Glaser to Beijing's six-party talks to advise the North Korean government that if they want to enjoy the world's luxuries, they will also have to accept controls on their nukes.

The strategy is not so bizarre as it sounds. A similar approach which included freezing Serbian bank accounts played a central role in forcing out Slobodon Milosevic from Yugoslavia in 2000.

Here, in addition to blocking sales of high-end luxury goods to North Korea, the U.S. is holding out a carrot. If the North Koreans can make concessions on the nuclear issue, the U.S. will allow a Macau bank to release some $7.5 million in frozen funds, which amounts to about one-quarter of the total North Korean funds the bank froze in response to the U.S. finding the money to be the results of drug trafficking, counterfeiting and other organized crime involving North Korean officials.

During the Clinton Administration, senior U.S. officials knew about North Korean officially-sanctioned organized crime, but had yet to undertake this kind of targeted financial sanctions. It's an interesting play and demonstrates the kind of creativity that the U.S. can bring to the use of financial sanctions. It may even work.

Another UN Designation Goes Awry

By Victor Comras

For the last several years, US terrorism financing trackers have noted suspicious financial transactions coming out of South Africa that appeared to be for the benefit of al Qaeda. Some of these transactions predate 9/11. Following the money led them to a Johannesburg dentist, Junaid Ismail Dockrat, and to his cousin, Farhad Ahmed Dockrat, an Islamic Cleric. The South African authorities were notified. But, nothing happened. Despite US entreaties, South African officials were reluctant to take any action beyond agreeing to monitor their activities. They asked the US to be patient as they sought to develop new information concerning the pair’s activities.

Last week, with patience at an end, the US decided to move against Farhad and Juniad, and to put new pressure on the South African Government to act. The US presented the pair’s names to the UN Security Council’s Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee for designation. South Africa had just become a member of that Committee on January 1st. It was hoped that South Africa would join in the designation request, and that all countries would then act to block their financial transactions and their assets. But, that did not occur. Instead, South Africa put an indefinite hold on the UN designation process.

This is not the first time that a member of the committee chose to hold back the UN designation of its nationals. Pakistan, also used its position on the Security Council and Al Qaeda Committee to stymie the designations of Lashkar e Toiba and Al Akhtar Trust for more than year. And Lashkar’s offshoot, Jamaat e Dawa has still not been designated by the UN Committee, despite US claims that Jamaat is merely an alias for Lashkar.

To the embarrassment of all parties, the story leaked, and Reuters reporter, Michael Georgy, published a story January 21st, reporting that papers had been submitted by the United States to the Security Council alleging that both Junaid and Farhad had acted as al-Qaeda "financiers, recruiters and facilitators." According to the news report they had transferred funds to al Qaeda and coordinated the travel of South Africans to Pakistan to train there with Militant Islamic groups. Both men deny these charges.

Despite the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Committee’s hold on the designation, US Treasury Department officials decided to act on their own. A press release from the Treasury Department this morning announced that the US was designating both Farhad and Junaid, and an entity owned by them, Sniper Africa. The South African’s were reportedly furious.

According to the Treasury Department Press Release “Farhad Ahmed Dockrat and Junaid Ismail Dockrat, and a related entity { were designated January 26th} for financing and facilitating al Qaida, pursuant to Executive Order 13224.” The Press release goes on to say

"Today's action targets two family members that have supported al Qaida – one by providing funds to Al Akhtar Trust, a globally-recognized al Qaida fundraiser, and another by facilitating travel for individuals to train in al Qaida camps…. In one example, Dockrat in 2001 provided over 400,000 South African Rand (approximately $62,900 US) to the Taliban ambassador to Pakistan to be forwarded to al Akhtar Trust, an Afghanistan-based fundraiser for al Qaida. Al Akhtar Trust was previously designated by the United States under E.O. 13224 for its support to al Qaida. Al Akhtar Trust is also on the United Nations 1267 Committee's list of sanctioned individuals and entities designated for providing support to al Qaida, Usama bin Ladin and the Taliban…..Junaid Dockrat is an al Qaida financier, recruiter and facilitator. Junaid Dockrat in 2004 worked via phone and email with Al Qaida operations chief Hamza Rabi'a (now deceased) to coordinate the travel of South Africans to Pakistan in order for them to train with al Qaida. He is also responsible for raising US $120,000 that Rabi'a received in the spring of 2004.”

The US designation may turn out to be only symbolic as neither party holds any assets here. And with a hold at the Security Council Al Qaeda Committee, it’s not clear when or whether they will be placed on the UN designation list. Without such UN designation, neither South Africa or any other country may feel compelled to act against the pair’s assets or transactions. And, its doubtful that there’s any money still to be found, given that the story leaked last week.

Internet Security Company Cracks Special Jihadist Software

By Andrew Cochran

CT Blog posting from Jim Melnick, iDefense Intelligence Team, VeriSign, Inc.

On January 1, 2007, the pro-terrorist group, "Global Islamic Media Front" (GIMF) announced the "imminent release" of what they called "the first Islamic computer program for secure exchange on the Internet." Some Western websites that track online terrorist activity reported on the GIMF announcement, but it has otherwise not received any serious media attention. iDefense/VeriSign has since found a copy of this program, "Mujahedine Secrets," on a pro-terrorist Arabic language forum and has begun analyzing its capabilities and assessing what its impact will be. Earlier this week we announced this to our client base, which includes numerous key elements of the U.S. government. We are continuing to discover new aspects about the software, which we believe is bound to spread quickly in the online pro-terrorist world. As far as is known, none of this new information has been announced publicly anywhere else other than among the pro-terrorists themselves.

The "Mujahedine Secrets" encryption program offers terrorists and their sympathizers several key features, some of which are common features of PGP programs that are currently available elsewhere as well as other features that appear to be new. Technical analysis is ongoing and will be assessed in future iDefense reporting. Most importantly, this program is an executable application that does not need to be installed onto a PC and can be used with a USB drive. According to iDefense Middle East analyst Andretta Summerville, "the program's 'portability' as an application (not requiring installation) will become an increasingly desirable feature, especially considering the high use of Internet cafés worldwide by pro-terrorist Islamic extremists." The use of the 'Mujahedine Secrets' on a portable USB drive will offer additional anonymity to those who use the program, which may make it increasingly difficult or even impossible for investigators to track down the source of activity further than the Internet café itself.

Due to the strong "marketing" campaign of the program by the Global Islamic Media Front in Arabic-language forums, specifically on hacker and pro-terrorist forums, "Mujahedine Secrets" is likely to reach a broad audience of pro-terrorist supporters online and Arabic-speaking hackers. The PDF file included with the software assists non-English speaking users in the application's operation. This, unfortunately, could greatly impact the threat landscape of pro-terrorist communications worldwide, since it will make it easier and more comfortable for those Arabic speakers who may have been wary of using English-based encryption programs to use a program developed by "their own" people. According to a statement within the Arabic PDF file, this is a code that they have been developing for years. iDefense/VeriSign is continuing to assess what the impact will be with this new software - both as to its technical characteristics as well as how it will be greeted in the pro-terrorist online world. Requests for follow-on information on this development or information on how to obtain iDefense products can be sent to: di@idefense.com. Jim Melnick, Director of Threat Intelligence, iDefense/VeriSign, Inc.

Jim Melnick is director of threat intelligence for iDefense, the security intelligence arm of VeriSign, Inc., which operates the systems that manage the ".com" and ".net" domains. (Note: VeriSign is a client of GAGE LLC)

Mirwaiz Umer Farooq’s Meeting with Kashmir Militants in PoK !

By Animesh Roul

Jammu and Kashmir’s All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leader Mirwaiz Umer Farooq who is presently visiting Pakistan along with other senior Kashmiri leaders has reportedly met several Islamic militant leaders operating from Muzaffarabad, capital of the Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) , including Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, the leader of the Al-Umar Mujahedin militant outfit. Mirwaiz Umer Farooq in his quest to convince the leaderships of United Jehad Council (UJC) to give up their armed campaign and go for negotiations to resolve the vexed Kashmir issue, also believed to have met the commanders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Mushtaq Zargar was the only Indian among the three terrorists (Maulana Azhar Masood and Umer Shaikh) who were released after the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight 814 at Kandahar in December 1999, in exchange of over 150 hostages.

The United Jehad Council (UJC), an amalgam of various Pakistan-based terrorist groups (e.g. LeT, JeM and Al Umar) had criticized Mirwaiz’s views on Kashmir earlier. The UJC had rejected Mirwaiz’s call to give up armed struggle, to pave way for a peaceful negotiated settlement of the Kashmir issue. Most of the Militant leaders have expressed shock by the "baseless" and "uncalled" for statement of the Mirwaiz and his colleagues (in APHC-Moderate) and termed them "ignorant” of the Kashmir struggle.

Mirwaiz’s meeting with militants there, would certainly raise eyebrows in India and it would take a political picture in the coming days and can put Congress led UPA government and PM Manmohan Singh in an embarrassing situation. The meeting also can put Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf into a tight spot, as Islamabad has been denying the presence of Zargar and other militants ‘most wanted’ by Indian authority in its territory since long. Even Mirwaiz Umer Farooq himself might be in the line militant fire back home in Kashmir due to his overtly 'anti-gun-militancy' viewpoints. There was already a grenade attack on Mirwaiz’s residence in the Nageen area of capital Srinagar prior to his visit to Pakistan a week ago.

Arabsat Begins to Broadcast Insurgent Propaganda Station

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Nick Grace and I have been following the case of al-Zawraa TV, a 24-hour insurgent station that focuses on Iraq but is broadcast through the Middle East. Here's how we described the station in a Daily Standard article on January 3:

Al-Zawraa hit the airwaves on November 14. According to Middle East-based media monitor Marwan Soliman and military analyst Bill Roggio, it was set up by the Islamic Army of Iraq, an insurgent group comprised of former Baathists who were loyal to Saddam Hussein and now profess their conversion to a bin Laden-like ideology.

The Islamic Army of Iraq is subordinate to the Mujahideen Shura Council, an umbrella organization of Sunni insurgent groups, including al Qaeda in Iraq. The Al-Zawraa channel is not only viewed as credible by users of established jihadist Internet forums, but as a strategically important information outlet as well. Moreover, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, is delighted by the station. A U.S. military intelligence officer told us that al-Masri "has long-term and big plans for this thing." . . . .

Al-Zawraa's content is heavy with insurgent propaganda, including audio messages from Islamic Army of Iraq spokesman Dr. Ali al-Na'ami and footage of the group's operations. The station calls for violence against both Shia Iraqis and the Iraqi government. According to Marwan Soliman, the station's anchors appear in military fatigues to rail against the Iraqi government while news crawls urge viewers to support the Islamic Army of Iraq and "help liberate Iraq from the occupying U.S. and Iranian forces."

When we wrote this, al-Zawraa was being broadcast by Nilesat, a powerful satellite administered by the Egyptian government. Today, BBC Monitoring reports that al-Zawraa has been picked up by Saudi-based Arabsat, thus making it more difficult to shut down the station:

On Friday 26 January BBC Monitoring observed Al-Zawraa TV, a Sunni satellite channel that targets viewers in Iraq and the Middle East, transmitting on Badr 4, one of the Arabsat satellites, at 26 degrees east.

Al-Zawraa also continues to be carried on the Egyptian-run Nilesat satellite.

Arabsat, based in Saudi Arabia, is an intergovernmental organization established originally by the Arab League. Saudi Arabia is the main stakeholder.

Al-Zawraa's founder is Mishan al-Jaburi, a former member of the Iraqi parliament and leader of the Sunni Arab Front for Reconciliation and Liberation.

The US has expressed concern about the content of the channel's broadcasts. An unnamed US official quoted by United Press International news agency on 14 January said: "We are very concerned about this. Al-Zawraa is glorifying the killing of American and Iraqi government officials, which we strongly object to. This needs to be taken care of. . . . This should never have been on air in the first place, much less over the satellite of a country that professes to be a friend of the United States."

Al-Zawraa is now based in Syria, after its studios in Iraq were closed by the Iraqi Interior Ministry in November 2006, for allegedly inciting violence and terrorism.

The Iraqi government has also asked Egypt to remove Al-Zawraa from the Nilesat satellite. So far, Egypt has refused to take Al-Zawraa off the air, saying that the channel's broadcasts are a purely commercial arrangement.

GSPC in Algeria Announces New Name: "Al-Qaida in the Land of the Islamic Maghrib"

By Evan Kohlmann

The Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC) has issued a new statement today officially announcing a change in name for the group to "Al-Qaida in the Land of the Islamic Maghrib." According to the statement, the decision to adopt the Al-Qaida moniker was made "as an indication of the group's vibrancy, the strength of its coalition [with Usama Bin Laden], and the sincerity of the link between the mujahideen in Algeria, and other brothers from the Al-Qaida organization." On September 14, 2006, the GSPC declared its initial intention to merge with Al-Qaida, but continued unabated in using its traditional name. In its latest statement, the group explained, "we were cautious about this matter from the first day of the merger" and added that the final decision to name themselves Al-Qaida came only after "consultations with Shaykh Usama [Bin Laden], may God preserve him... and his consent."

See also: Speech from GSPC Commander in Algeria: "We are Coming"

A Serious Problem with the Surge

By Douglas Farah

The Bush administration has finally turned its attention in a serious way to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. It has, of course, been seriously deteriorating for some time and the attention is likely to be brief.

Afghanistan has been the victim of international attention deficit disorder. Not only the Bush administration suffers this malady that could snatch victory from defeat.

What has changed in the past 18 months? The Taliban have new weapons, vehicles, communications equipment with encryption, and outreach and propaganda facilities.

It is overdue to seriously rethink how to try to retake the initiative. Al Qaeda and the Taliban have gone from a defeated, dejected force under fire even from fellow travelers, to resilient heroes in the past two years.

Given the lack of security, people are helping the Taliban, if not for conviction, then out of fear that, ultimately, the Taliban will return, as they have in several provinces already.

The massive focus on Iraq by the Bush administration would have been less damaging to Afghanistan if NATO and other allies had been more willing to pick up the slack. My full blog is here.

Did the Libby Trial Testimony Reveal a CIA "Courage Gap"?

By Andrew Cochran

You would think that senior CIA agents who run operations are all rough, tough, unbreakable, imaginative men of steel - see Brad Pitts' and Robert Redford's characters in the movie Spy Games or Redford's character in Three Days of the Condor - but you wouldn't know that from yesterday's testimony in the trial of Lewis "Scooter" Libby. See today's "New York Daily News" with the following: "Robert Grenier, the former top CIA official overseeing Iraq operations, testified that he was so unnerved about being pulled out of a summer 2003 meeting by Cheney's chief of staff Lewis (Scooter) Libby, he identified the spy as Valerie Plame... Libby ordered Grenier out of a meeting with CIA Director George Tenet - an unprecedented demand - to get answers. Grenier was so flustered that the vice president's office was calling, he blurted out to Libby that Wilson's wife was CIA."

Read that slowly and think about it. The man who ran the entire CIA operation in Iraq crumbled like a saltine when a politician's lackey asked him for information. His excuse? Grenier told the court (edit) that he figured that Libby "probably had every security clearance known to man." Oh really? In 15+ years of federal and Congressional service, I never assumed any such status, and certainly nobody who is running a CIA operation overseas should ever so assume. What he should have done was to stand nose-to-nose with "Scooter" and fire back, "Mr. Libby, what is your security clearance, on whose authority are you asking for that information, and do you have written proof of both?" Instead, he turned over important information with no idea how it was to be exploited.

No wonder CIA operations in Iraq were such a mess; if this guy can't stand up to a short-term political employee in a Washington meeting, how could we trust him to pull off something really important in the field? The Congressional intelligence committees should investigate this behind closed doors to determine if this "courage gap" at senior levels of the CIA is a widespread disease and whether CIA leadership has reminded career agents of their responsibility to protect sensitive information (classified or not) from unauthorized disclosure.

Iranian call for the "convergence of Islamic movements"

By Lorenzo Vidino

Yesterday Doug Farah posted two interesting articles that might show how Iran "may have tried to reach too far in extending its influence through Iraq and into the rest of the Arab world." Signs that Iranian leadership might be of the same opinion come from an interesting editorial written on January 20th by Saleh Eskandari on Resalat, one of Iran's most conservative papers (here translated by BBC). Going against some of the recent rhetoric coming from Iran, Eskandari stresses the unity of the umma against the West, indicating how divisions could play in the hands of the West:

Today, in the supra-neo-colonialism scheme, the West's confrontation and defiance towards the World of Islam has reached its height. Therefore, the need for separate Islamic movements in various Muslim states is not of issue as it was in the 20th Century. On the contrary, what is of importance to the World of Islam is the convergence of Islamic movements against the Western neo-colonialism.

In an ecumenical meeting with the Shi'i and Sunni scholars, the Supreme Leader [Khamene'i] made certain statements about the unity of the Islamic umma, saying: "We have to create the principles of an academic, true and sincerely realistic unity between the Sunni and Shi'is... The distinguished in the struggle against colonialism and global arrogance have doubly stressed the need for the "Islamic umma unity". Notice how Seyyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi (may God be satisfied with him), known as Afghani, and his novice Sheykh Mohammad Abdo and others, and the late Sharafoddin Ameli and other great ones from the Shi'i scholars endeavoured in the struggle against colonialism not to allow this easy tool to turn into a weapon in the hands of colonialism against the World of Islam.

Opposition Demonstrations in Lebanon and the Paris III Conference

By David Schenker

Co-Editor's Note, Jan. 24: A longer version of David's post, titled "Lebanon Goes to Paris III: High Stakes in France and Beirut," is now available from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy website.

This morning in Lebanon, government opposition forces—Hizballah, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and their pro-Syrian allies—shut down key arteries in Lebanon, including roads into Beirut and the airport road, effectively closing the airport and paralyzing the country. Clashes with Lebanese security forces ensued, and according to reports, three people were killed and some 50 wounded. The striking images of tires burning and dump-trucks empting dirt onto Lebanese highways to block traffic were broadcast all day on LBC and Al Jazeera. At about 10 PM Lebanese time, the opposition ended the daylong “strike.”

The protest, a demonstration of opposition muscle-flexing, comes just two days before Prime Minister Fouad Siniora leaves for France to participate in Paris III, an international donors conference in which forty nations will pledge funds to rebuild the Lebanese economy. In turn, the Government of Lebanon will implement signifcant economic reforms. Lebanon is in urgent need of grant money to help defray the crushing interest payments on its nearly $41 billion in debt. Interest payments currently amount to over $3 billion a year.

Both Hizballah and the FPM led by General Michel Aoun, oppose Paris III and the proposed reforms. Hizballah, of course, left the cabinet in November 2006—demanding that the opposition be provided more cabinet seats and an effective veto over [Siniora] government initiatives. Aoun and Hizballah have since worked assiduously to compel the Siniora Government to form this “Government of National Unity.” In the absence of this unity government, the opposition is working to topple the Siniora.

The last thing Hizballah and Aoun want is for Siniora to have a “successful” conference in Paris. It would demonstrate that the March 14th Forces bloc, to which Siniora is aligned, is capable of governing effectively without Hizballah and Aoun. Opposition efforts to undercut Siniora have been ongoing since November 2006, but the Siniora Administration has hung tough. Today's demonstrations and violence represent a significant upping of the ante by the opposition, raising already extant sectarian tensions in Lebanon.

Of course, the success of Paris III is not a foregone conclusion. Expectations are high in Lebanon and if they are not met, Hizballah and the opposition may capitalize. If Paris III is perceived as a success, however, Siniora and the March 14th forces could regain some of the momentum they have lost in recent years.

Lacto-Terrorism: FARC Bombs a Dairy

By Aaron Mannes

Last week a FARC truck bomb carrying 660 lbs of explosives destroyed most of a dairy owned by the Swiss food multi-national Nestle in the southern state of Caqueta, one person was injured. Earlier in the week, also in Caqueta, a pair of cold-storage tanks owned by a Nestle supplier were destroyed in a FARC attack.

Recent FARC bomb attacks against the police in the port city of Buenventura and a convoy of soldiers near the border with Ecuador have evident rationales. In Buenventura the FARC was apparently retaliating for a counter-narcotics operation. The attack against the convoy was an effort to protect core FARC territory. But bombing dairies?

Coca-Cola and Nestle, and other multinationals operating in Colombia have been accused of using violence against labor organizers. There have been high levels of violence against union organizers in Colombia, although as the overall security situation has improved this violence has declined as well. In the past Colombian terrorists have extorted multinationals, although Nestle's spokesman insists that the FARC has made no recent demands for payment.

What is likely is that, as the FARC is losing control of territory, it is attempting to secure its strongholds. By attacking legitimate businesses it undermines the local economy, frequently forcing the poor to turn to growing coca or otherwise working in the illegal drug trade. The same tactic is being used in Afghanistan, where impoverished farmers are forced by the Taliban to grow opium poppies. Both the Taliban and the FARC may not need more drugs to export. But forcing people into the illicit economy also detaches them from the lawful government places them under the political auspices of the terrorists.

Cross-posted to TerrorProfiles.

Is Iran Reaching Too Far in Iraq?

By Douglas Farah

Two new publications show that Iran may have tried to reach too far in extending its influence through Iraq and into the rest of the Arab world. The result could be increasing clashes and all-out war between the Salafist project and the Shi'ia projects, with each side giving a higher priority to killing each other than attacking the West.

The first is a translation by PRISM of a new _jihadi_ document written by Kuwaiti Heikh Hamed bin Abdullah al-Ali, which has been widely circulated. Called the "Covenant of fht Supreme Council of Jihad Groups," it appears to have received enthusiastic support in the virtual _jihadi_ community.

One of the striking things about the document is the emphasis on the Iran-Shi'ia threat as the greatest to the _salafist_ and _jihadi_ movement, ahead, for the first time in a major document, of the "Jews and Crusaders." The document accuses the Shi'ia of searching "for the destruction of the Islamic civilization and slaughtering Muslims under false religious banners." My full blog is here.

Blackhawk Up

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have an article entitled "Blackhawk Up" in this week's print edition of The Weekly Standard. The piece focuses on the efforts of Somalia's transitional federal government to secure funding in the wake of the Islamic Courts Union's retreat. The article highlights a dispute between the Pentagon and State Department over how to dispense aid to the transitional government. An excerpt:

According to a senior U.S. military intelligence officer, the Pentagon and State Department are bickering about how to handle cash outlays to the transitional government. The Pentagon favors large cash transfers of the kind [transitional government permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation Dahir] Jibreel calls for, while State wants to provide aid in smaller chunks with tighter control on who receives the money. State's goal is to prevent corruption and mismanagement of funds while encouraging the transitional government to seek a broad-based coalition for governing Somalia, probably including putative moderates from the Islamic Courts Union.

The intelligence officer disagrees with this approach. "The government needs the money now," he said. "It'll do the most good right now. If you want to see the return of the Islamic Courts Union, this is the perfect recipe. The United States has been criticized for how it's acted in Somalia in the past. We can't repeat our past mistakes and allow the Islamic Courts Union to take power again."

The transitional government's financial shortfall has direct implications for the two greatest challenges it faces. The first is preventing an insurgency. The head of the Islamic Courts Union's executive council, Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed (who was captured during the past week), has called for a move to insurgent fighting.

There is reason to believe that the Islamic Courts Union may succeed in mounting an insurgency. A senior military intelligence officer told me that its forces' ability to "melt away" as Ethiopian troops advance is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan. Also, a confidential report drafted by the U.N.'s Monitoring Group on Somalia in late 2006 warns that the Islamic Courts Union "is fully capable of turning Somalia into what is currently an Iraq-type scenario, replete with roadside and suicide bombers, assassinations, and other forms of terrorist and insurgent-type activities."

If an insurgency is to be prevented, the fact that the government's soldiers haven't been paid is of utmost concern. Jibreel worries that these troops "could walk away in despair."

The full article can be found here. For more on the transitional government's needs, see Eli Lake's recent article in the New York Sun.

Suspects, Reportedly Tied to Al Qaeda in Iraq, Sought Student Visas

By Michael Cutler

"Being There" was the title of a movie starring Peter Sellers that was produced in 1979. It was based on a satirical novel. For criminals and terrorists, the theme can be described as "Being Here!" Their goal is to be able to enter the United States in order to carry out crimes and attacks within the United States in furtherance of their malevolent objectives. News articles out today from both ABC News and NBC News report on a disturbing prospect, that terrorists are intent on gaining access to the United States through the flawed student visa program.

As the 9-11 Commission noted, in order to attack our nation on September 11, 2001, the terrorists needed to first, of all, manage to enter the United States. This finding does not require brilliance, just common sense. For many years I have been making the point that the porous borders of the United States represent only one vulnerability of many. The fact is that the Visa Waiver Program and fact that students attending schools in the United States are monitored by foreign student advisors who are employed by the schools that reap the lucrative tuition fees when they admit foreign students leave the system wide open to all sorts of manipulation with gaps large enough to fly airliners through! This is further exacerbated by the simple fact that there are only about 3,000 special agents employed by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) who are required to perform a wide variety of jobs that fall under the auspices of the "Interior enforcement" mission of ICE. To name just a few of the more significant missions that these overworked agents are required to undertake:

Conduct investigations of employers of illegal aliens and implement employer sanctions, where appropriate;

Conduct investigations of fraud; both the manufacture and distribution of fraudulent identity documents and supporting documents (this includes both altered and outright counterfeit documents), as well as fraud schemes such as those who engage in marriage fraud and labor certification fraud;

Identify and apprehend criminal aliens who have been deported and subsequently reenter the United States illegally;

Identify nonimmigrant aliens who overstay their authorized period of stay in the United States; and

Assist on various task forces such as the Drug Task Force and the Counterterrorism Task Force.

National Security and Immigration - No Doubts

By Bill West

ABC News has reported that al-Qaeda in Iraq may have attempted to infiltrate terrorist operatives into the United States to conduct attacks by utilizing student visas to effect entry into this country, much the same way many of the 9/11 terrorist hijackers entered the US. The report stated that US military forces captured documents last year during a raid in Iraq that indicated terrorist plans by al-Qaeda for operations inside the US.

That al-Qaeda continues to view the exploitation of America’s student visa system as a potential mechanism for infiltrating its operatives into this country is both disturbing and not surprising. For all the rhetoric about increased border security and enhanced immigration enforcement efforts since the 9/11 attacks, the reality is that not much is much improved from 9/10/2001. Relative to the student visa process, there is an automated reporting mechanism requiring schools to report foreign students that do not report or who drop out or otherwise violate their status. That system, however, is only as good as the integrity and competence of the school officials who manage and input the violator information on the front end.

On the receiving end of that foreign student violator information are Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration authorities. At some point, presumably that violator information is scrubbed through various Intelligence and law enforcement databases and those with “hits” would, again presumably, be targeted for aggressive investigation (hopefully those “hits” would have been generated after the alien entered the US and not before, when those same checks should also have been conducted if aggressive visa processing is done). But what of those violators who have a “clean” name and fingerprint history who show up in no adverse database...the way most of the 9/11 hijackers did before the 9/11 attacks?

New Video of Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri: Warning & "Deal" (with video link)

By Andrew Cochran

Laura Mansfield and Rita Katz's SITE Institute report that a new video of Ayman al-Zawahiri will be released soon. Mansfield: "The new video, entitled "The Correct Equation", features Zawahiri in dark robe and white turban against a dark background and contains English subtitles. In the video, Zawahiri specifically addresses President Bush's plan for Iraq. He also specifically addresses the American people, saying "Security is a shared destiny. If we are secure, you might be secure, and if we are safe, you might be safe. And if we are struck and killed, you will definitely - with Allah's permission - be struck and killed". The video also calls for the release of Al Qaeda members in American prisons, specifically mentioning the Blind Sheikh, Dr. Omar Abdul Rahman. The video appears timed to coincide with the State of the Union Address." SITE Institute: "Zawahiri taunts Bush, questioning: “why send 20,000 only - why not send 50 or 100 thousand? Aren't you aware that the dogs of Iraq are pining for your troops' dead bodies?.” He then invites the American President to send the entire American Army to Iraq as he believes the Mujahideen are capable of destroying the equivalent of ten armies."

UPDATE: Laura Mansfield has made the full tape with English translations available from her website (large Windows Media file).

This appears to be another in a long line of tapes in which Al Qaeda leaders concurrently warn the West and offer a mutual security "deal" - a complete lie and impossibility, of course, but Al Qaeda will continue to make the "offer." Daveed Gartenstein-Ross posted about this strategy in December, after al-Zawahiri used the Iraq Study Group report to offer another "deal."

Picture of al-Zawahiri courtesy of SITE Institute

ULFA Violence Continues despite Counter Terror Operations in India’s Northeast

By Animesh Roul

In fresh attacks, United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) has triggered powerful explosions on January 21 (Sunday) killing at least one and injuring some eight others. The first explosion took place near New Bongaigaon railway station, injuring at least three people, while the second blast came in the evening near a crowded vegetable market in Bahari village in Barpeta district that killed one people on the spot and five more people were injured. Sunday’s blasts are the latest in the series of attacks perpetrated by ULFA since January 5.

Unruffled by the ongoing Army offensive (Operation Clear) in the region, the outfit has been warning migrant Hindi-speaking workers to quit Assam with immediate effect and also threatened to attack government officials and ruling party leaders if the counter terror operation continues in the State. They have in fact killed a congress party worker, Bogadhar Moran in Digboi recently.

If Indian intelligence agencies are to be believed, ULFA has strong ties with Bangladesh Intelligence agency DGFI and ISI of Pakistan.

Nevertheless, Indian Army's 'Operation Clear' has been intensified to neutralize ULFA militants in Lohit, Tirap and Changlang districts of bordering Arunachal Pradesh. In Assam, Dibru Saikhowa and Lakhipathar reserve forests have witnessed army offensive against the militants. More than 5 ULFA militants killed and many more captured so far.

Four major militant outfits operating in Northeast India have called a general strike and a boycott of Jan 26 Republic Day celebrations. ULFA along with the Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO), Manipur People's Liberation Front(MPLF) and Tripura People's Democratic Front (TPDF) in a joint statement indicated that ''Jan. 26 is just like imposing the Constitution on the peoples of North East region. Hence a boycott of the day has been called.'' The four outfits said the Indian Constitution ''undermined the basic unity of the north east region by fragmenting it on ethnic lines''. ULFA also boycotted forthcoming (Feb 9-18) National games in the State. More terror related violence expected in the coming days in Assam and other regions of India, especially ahead of Jan. 26 Republic Day celebrations.

A Big Week in Jolo

By Zachary Abuza

The US-Assisted Armed Forces of the Philippines had a morale boosting week. Today, the Philippine Government announced that US investigators had positively matched Khadaffy Janjalani’s DNA. The AFP had been certain that Janjalani, the leader of the Abu Sayyaf, had been wounded in a firefight on 4 September 2006. Two ASG captives led them to an unmarked grave and investigators took a sample of DNA. In the night of 16 January, Philippine Special Forces killed Jainal Antel Sali, jr. @Abu Solaiman, the top military planner. Sali was implicated in the kidnapping of US citizen Jeffrey Craig Schilling in 2000 on Jolo island; kidnapping 20 hostages including three Americans from the Dos Palmas resort in Palawan in 2001, one of whom, Guillermo Sobero he decapitated. Of particular gratification to the US military advisors, Sali was responsible for a string of bombings in Zamboanga City in October 2002, one of which killed a US Special Forces personnel, one of the few casualties the Americans have sustained.

Both men carried $5 million bounties. The training of AFP personnel is continuing. Though it has been a slow 4 years, they are really beginning to show progress. Right now the ASG is led by Radullan Sahiron @ Commander Putol, who has roughly 100-120 men under his control. The other top leader is Isnilon Totoni Hapilon @ Salahuddin @ Abu Musab, who may be trying to draw recruits and regain a foothold in neighboring Basilan Island, which had been largely pacified since 2003. Today the Philippine Marines announced they were sending a Brigade – roughly 1,500 men to Basilan. Hapilon has around 50-60 men under him. Other leaders include:
• Osman @ Usman @ Rizal
• Umbra Abu Jumdail @ Dr. Abu Pula
• Albader Parad
• Wahab Opao @ Abu Fatima
• Ustadz Hatta Haipe
• Julabi
• Suhod Tanadjalan @ Commander Suhod

There are also approximately 5-6 members of JI with them.

But clearly the ASG is on the run, and less able to take the offensive and plan more sophisticated bombing attacks. The terrain is rugged and they are lightly armed, but the tide has decidedly turned against them.

Yet there have been a few setbacks such as the emergence of urban terrorist groups in Jolo City and Isabella, the capital of Basilan. While not all are tied to ASG, some are. AFP officials believe that the success of their operations have ironically driven ASG from the jungles to the cities. There have been a few bombings, but mainly motorcycle pillon shootings, such as the 17 January shooting of a police in Isabella.

Islamists Attack in Mogadishu Against Government (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

As Douglas Farah reported below, the transitional government in Somalia is on very shaky ground and needs immediate assistance from African nations to prevent a reversion to Islamist influence. The presidential palace in Mogadishu has been attacked, presumably by UIC remnants and supporters, and over a dozen explosions and gunfire have been heard in the capital. UPDATE from Reuters: "'Eight mortar shells were fired at Villa Somalia, but only five hit. The other three went into nearby houses,' a senior government source told Reuters, confirming that President Abdullahi Yusuf was inside at the time of the guerrilla-style attack." Reuters also quotes two "ex-fighters" claiming, "Many Islamists have started infiltrating Mogadishu again."

This sounds like a UIC attempt to quickly decapitate the transitional government of its leadership before it gets settled in Mogadishu.

The Closing Window in Somalia

By Douglas Farah

Already the transitional government in Somalia appears to have almost completely squandered the small chance it had to begin to restore the country to some form of functionality.

Jendayi Frazer, the State Department's point person on Somalia, acknowledges that time is running out and that the leaders of the government have done almost nothing to reach out to form a more inclusive body politic.

This can only lead to further violence and chaos. Already the government of Abdullahi Yusuf has shown an intolerant streak and the infighting among the Darod clan and the Hawiye clan (and the various sub clans and sub-sub clans) is threatening to cripple the government almost before it begins.

The Ethiopian troops, now viewed widely as an occupying force, cannot leave because there is no one to replace them-no national army and no international force. The AU is still dithering, as it did in the case of Sudan, and is likely to be unable to muster the will or the attention to actually take any signficiant steps. My full blog is here.

Lebanese Opportunity? Former Secretary-General Attacks Hezbollah

By Aaron Mannes

The invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute translated a fascinating interview with former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Subhi al-Tufeili. In the interview, al-Tufeili criticizes Hezbollah for kidnapping Israeli soldiers this summer and sparking a war that devastated Lebanon. He also criticizes Hezbollah for pushing Lebanon towards a civil war and calling it a tool of Iranian intelligence and even voices limited support for Lebanon’s democratic framework. In the light of al-Tufeili’s past, as a founding father of Hezbollah, these statements are significant. This shift could present an important opportunity to dent Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon’s Shiites.

The full blog is here.

Alleged Tunisian plot & GSPC's influence in N. Africa

By Lorenzo Vidino

Unreported by most Western media, it appears that Tunisian authorities have dismantled a serious terrorist threat against Western interests (mostly embassies) in the North African country. According to government reports, Tunisian security forces engaged a large "Salafist terrorist group" in different operations between the end of December and the beginning of January. Twelve militants were reported killed and fifteen arrested.

The operation is significant for various reasons:

The group, composed mostly of Tunisians, was reported to have crossed into Tunisia from the Algerian desert, where they had established links with the Algerian GSPC. Various experts on this blog have repeatedly warned about the danger posed by the GSPC (most recently Evan Kohlmann reported about the latest tape in which the group confirmed its allegiance to Bin Laden and threatened various Western governments, aside from the Bouteflika government). One of the aspects of the threat posed by the GSPC is its support to other less organized Salafi outfits in the region. The first week of January, for example, Moroccan authorities dismantled a radical Islamist network recruiting volunteers to fight in Iraq and arrested 62 people. According to Moroccan authorities the network had solid ideological, financial and operational ties to the GSPC.

As it often happens when the GSPC is involved, the Tunisian cell had strong ties to Europe. The alleged leader of the group was a 36-year-old Tunisian named Lassaad Sassi, aka Abu Hashem. As first reported by Guido Olimpio in Corriere della Sera, Abu Hashem, a veteran of Bosnia, Chechnya, and Afghanistan, was an important player in North African networks operating in Northern Italy. Indicted in April 2005 in Milan, Abu Hashem had left Italy and probably joined the GSPC in Algeria before attempting to carry out operations in his native Tunisia.

The alleged plot is another confirmation of the GSPC's importance for terrorist networks in North Africa and strong European links.

Federal Regulator Tip-Toes Into Reporting of International Wire Transfers (updated 1/18)

By Andrew Cochran

The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the U.S. Treasury (FinCEN) announced today that they had completed a study of the feasibility of mandating the reporting of cross-border wire transfer data by financial institutions, in accordance with the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). The study concluded that such reporting is technically feasible and might be valuable to efforts to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, but takes additional resources before full implementation. The study was ordered in Section 6302 of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004. I first posted on this issue in April, 2005, following the first move by FinCEN to initiate the study. You can download the entire study from the FinCEN website (large Acrobat file).

Since the passage of the act, some of the leaders at FinCEN and the Treasury Department who pushed for a comprehensive program have left, and successors have taken a more cautious view of the agency's capabilities. The study reflects the limited scope of the program as now envisioned. To begin with, FinCEN proposes to limit the reporting mandate to those “First In/Last Out” institutions that send a wire transfer directly to a non-U.S. financial institution or receive such a transfer directly from a non-U.S. financial institution. To quote the study, "This approach aims to capture a funds transfer instruction at the point at which it crosses the U.S. border." The "American Banker" trade magazine today quotes a senior FinCEN adviser to the effect that this scope would limit the reporting of international wire transfers to about a dozen large institutions. The study also notes that much international transfer information is already available through other channels, including the SWIFT program that was the subject of press disclosures and posts here last year. FinCEN also now estimates that it will take over three years to implement the reporting mandate, much longer than the December 2007 deadline set in the 2004 intel reform act.

Last year I posted on the efforts by the banking community to limit the imposition of new BSA reporting and compliance burdens. Legislation pushed by the U.S. House Financial Services Committee (where I worked for almost 3 years) to ease reporting burdens was supported by the industry and passed the House, but failed in the Senate due to the objections of law enforcement (edited 1/18). Now that the leadership of both houses of Congress has changed, it will be interesting to see how the major banks which would implement the reporting requirement and the new Congressional majority will react to the study. Reporting more information on wire transfers would aid counterterrorism efforts, but with an extra cost to U.S. institutions that will not be shared by other countries' financial institutions which are not required to so report their transfers. This is a tip-toe into the reporting of international wire transfers; the debate over its utility and burden has only begun.

UPDATE, 1/18: The American Bankers Association issued a statement today expressing doubts over the course of action. “In light of FinCEN’s breathtaking finding that the new program could result in half a billion new financial reports a year, it is essential that we observe the congressional mandate that costs, benefits, and feasibility be thoroughly examined before we proceed toward implementation." And a slightly revised version of the BSA regulatory relief bill that passed in the House last year, but died in the Senate, passed in the House last week. A knowledgeable Senate source is skeptical of the bill's chances this year absent acquiescence by law enforcement.

New "9-11 Commission" Bill Does Not Seal Immigration Loopholes

By Michael Cutler

I did a cursory review of H.R. 1, the House bill that purportedly addresses the areas of concern raised by the 9-11 Commission, and I found no reference to any enhanced effort to deal with immigration benefit fraud, or to otherwise even mention any effort to improve security within the immigration system. You can read material relating to this legislation here.

I would urge that you consider the findings of the 9-11 Commission on how the terrorists who attacked our nation gamed the immigration system to enter the United States and to embed themselves within our country. I would also ask you to consider this 2005 report on the immigration fraud perpetrated by scores of foreign-born terrorists who operated in the U.S. False identities are to criminals and terrorists what changes in coloration are to chameleons. False names enable the bad guys to conceal their true identities, criminal histories and intentions. On September 11, 2001 our immigration system became the unwitting accomplice of the terrorists. The failure of the House bill to address the lack of integrity of the immigration system as well as the statements made by many of the politicians from both sides of the aisle and in both houses of Congress has made it clear that for many of our "leaders" the desire for cheap labor and new voters trumps national security and the safety of our citizens.

A sword of Damocles hangs over our nation, wielded by the terrorists, drug traffickers, gang members and assorted criminals who exploit the vulnerabilities of the immigration system to enter the United States. They would then seek to find and exploit additional vulnerabilities in the immigration system and other bureaucracies to be found in the United States to embed themselves in our country and then carry out their goals, to the extreme detriment of our citizens. For members of Congress and the administration to claim to be following the advice of the 9-11 Commission and then carefully pick and chose those recommendations that they like and thereby simply providing an illusion of attempting to protect our citizens and our nation is simply not acceptable.

The truth is that the House bill does not address the need to restore meaningful integrity to the immigration system and also secure our nation's borders. The Visa Waiver Program continues on and the President has recently called for the expansion of this program that imperils our nation's security. The proposed legislation does not address this loophole that makes it far easier for criminals and terrorists to enter the United States. While American citizens are required to remove their shoes before boarding airliners because Richard Reid, the notorious "Shoe Bomber" secreted explosives in his shoes. Meanwhile, what is ignored is that as a British citizen, Reid was able to board that airliner he intended to destroy in midair with his bombs, without first applying for and receiving a visa, because of the Visa Waiver Program. We are highly restricted in being able to bring any fluids on board airliners because a number of terrorists had planned to bring quantities of liquids on board airliners that are harmless by themselves, but become explosives when mixed together with other fluids. This ingenious scheme involving binary explosives was put together by more citizens of Great Britain. They too, could have boarded airliners without first obtaining visas.

The Fatah-Hamas Conflict in the Palestinian Authority

By David Schenker

There have been some very interesting developments in the Palestinian Authority (PA) of late as fighting has escalated between the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) faction Fatah and Hamas. Intra-Palestinian violence in the PA has reached unprecedented levels not necessarily in the quantity, but in the quality of attacks. In recent weeks, Palestinian factions have started targeting not only their rivals, but also their rivals’ families.

The crossing of this line has raised the concern that the PA will degenerate to full scale civil war. In the meanwhile, the violence has exposed extant cleavages in Palestinian society and, on a more basic level, the primal fears and concerns of many Palestinians. In this context, two developments bear mention:

Sunni-Shia Tensions in the Palestinian Authority: Although the number of Palestinian Shiites is negligible, a few weeks ago—after the killings of several high ranking Fatah officials and their families—signs of Sunni resentment toward Shiites started to emerge in the PA. In mid-December at a rally, Fatah loyalists chanted “shia, shia, shia,” referring to their Hamas rivals’ close ties to Iran. These chants materialized again on January 7, during a Fatah rally in a Gaza soccer stadium. Although both Fatah and Hamas are Sunni organizations, Fatah loyalists appear to be starting to view Hamas as tools of Iran, aligned with the Shia. Given some of the fatwas (religious edicts) emanating from Saudi Arabia—characterizing Shiites as “infidels”—the consequences could be profound in the PA.

Family Matters: Too often in the West, we try to understand the Middle East in terms of ideological alignments. More often than not, though, family and tribe are the most important allegiances in the region. Lately in Gaza, we’ve seen tribal loyalty play an increasingly important role. The Daghmoush clan is a good example of this phenomenon. Until recently, this large clan had largely been supporters of Hamas (some members of the family were commanders of the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza). But a few weeks ago, Hamas killed two members of the Daghmoush clan who were affiliated with Fatah. Since then, the clan has started attacking Hamas: on January 6, the clan killed three Hamas members and abducted four others. There are reports that Damascus based Hamas leader Khalid Meshal called a Daghmoush clan member in an unsuccessful effort to mend fences. Now, it appears that many in the clan may have changed allegiance to Fatah.

Britain's "Moderate" Islamists

By Douglas Farah

A recent hidden camera taping of what is really taught in one of Britain's most influential "moderate" mosques tells you all you need to know about what these groups really believe.

Channel 4 took the courageous approach of infiltrating the Greenlane Mosque in Birmingham, a favorite of the "moderate" Muslim Council of Britain (and friends of CAIR, ISNA and others here) to hear what was being preached over a period of months.

The results are why many of us believe we are engaged in a war-not a war against Islam, but yes, a war against Islamists who are intent on destroying us and our way of life.

This language of hate and conquest is not a secret, it is openly preached. This is not an isolated, renegade mosque on the fringe of the British Islamic community, but the heart of it. It is a mosque praised publicly for its moderation, and the target of outreach programs by the government. Does any of this sound vaguely familiar in our government outreach program? My full blog is here.

CT Blog Posts on Ahmed Ressam, Millenium Bomber Whose Sentence Was Vacated Today

By Andrew Cochran

Today the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals tossed out the 22-year prison sentence given to Ahmed Ressam, the convicted "Millenium Bomber," and ordered the lower court to determine the appropriate sentence. Angst over the court's decision should be mitigated by reading the full opinion, available here: the court decided this on legal technicalities over the meaning of a statute and the propriety of the jury instructions. It overturned only one of the nine counts on which Ressam was convicted. In the majority opinion, the court states, "The government introduced ample evidence that Ressam falsely signed the customs form as Benni Noris and that he carried explosives in the trunk of his car. Ressam so concedes. However, the evidence adduced at trial does not show that the explosives “facilitated or played a role in the crime” of lying on the customs declaration."

The court reiterated the proven facts of Ressam's terrorist ties: "Ahmed Ressam trained with members of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and hatched a plot to detonate explosives at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) in the days before the new Millennium... Once in Pakistan, Ressam met Abu Zubaydah, who arranged Ressam’s travel to the Khalden training camp in Afghanistan. Ressam stayed with an Algerian terror group at Khalden for six months. During that time, he received firearms training and learned how to fire a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. Al Qaeda operatives at the camp taught Ressam to make explosive charges and showed him how to detonate particular types of plastic explosives. Ressam also learned how to destroy infrastructure targets, such as power plants, military installations, railroads, and airports. He later went to a second camp near Jalalabad where he received further training in explosives. It was during this time that Ressam and others hatched the plot to target a U.S. airport to coincide with the Millennium."

CT Blog Contributing Experts have previously posted on Ressam's affiliations and the actions of his cohorts:

Evan Kohlmann:
"Convicted Terrorists Send Advice to Brethren From Within U.S. Prisons," March 1, 2005
"Algerian "Junior Osama Bin Laden" Resurfaces in Bosnia-Herzegovina," Aug. 29, 2005
"Abu Khabab al-Masri: A Master of Terror," January 18, 2006

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, "The Return of Fateh Kamel," Feb. 27, 2005

Ahmadinejad's Excellent Latin American Adventure

By Douglas Farah

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is making a swing through Latin America this week, his second tour in four months, to cultivate anti-U.S. allies, using trade and ideology as his weapons. He is visiting leaders of what he hopes will be a broad coalition against the United States: his good friend Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, along with Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Ecuador's new president Rafael Correa, and Evo Morales of Bolivia.

Iran's geo-strategic interests in the region are easy to see: It desperately needs political allies and new markets for its goods as it comes under increasing pressure from Europe and the United States over its nuclear program.

With some money to burn, Ahmadinejad is looking to buy some friends and support among leaders in a region that is turning increasingly hostile to the United States, free trade and drug erradication programs. Latin American nations now feel they have little to lose by turning against the United States, given the severe drop in U.S interest and attention to the area closest to its southern border.

Ahmadinejad's frequent travels to the region underscore the importance Iran places on a few countries in Latin America. Argentina, to its credit, is still seeking to prosecute senior Iranian officials for their role in directing the 1994 bombing of the Jewish center in Buenos Aires. Everyone else seems to have forgotten the attacks ever happened.

It is unlikely Ahmadinejad is touring Latin America solely for the reasons listed above, however. There is little, in real economic terms, to be gained from Iran-Latin America trade. The political support Iran gathers in Latin America is useful but again, in real terms, not much more than marginal. My full blog is here.

On Bangladesh Impasse !

By Animesh Roul

I have published one in depth analysis on Bangladesh situation (with Senior writer Anes Alic), at ISN Security Watch, Zurich today: Bangladesh calms political crisis. We probed deep and tried to find out the actual situation on the ground, seeking some experts’ view on the latest crisis.

"After weeks of violent protests that claimed dozens of lives, Bangladesh authorities gave in to local and international pressure and postponed general elections originally set for 22 January. However, tensions remain high as a new election date hinges as key reform that would pave the way for a free and fair poll.

Bangladesh, a nation of 144 million people who are no strangers to coups and military rule, has been in political turmoil since the Bangladesh National Party's (BNP) five-year mandate expired in October.

At least 40 people have been killed and more than 2,500 arrested in the violent protests that began in late October, when BNP Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's term ended. Zia then handed over power to an interim government led by President Iajuddin Ahmed, who was charged with overseeing elections.

The president assumed the position of chief adviser of the caretaker government after the major political alliances failed to reach a consensus on the appointment for the next prime minister."

[Click Here For Complete Article]

EU To Take Important New Step to Expand Counter Terrorism Police Work

By Victor Comras

EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers agreed today to move ahead with plans to expand cross border police and judicial cooperation on an operational and information-sharing basis to combat terrorism, cross-border crime and illegal migration. Meeting in Dresden, Germany, the Ministers took up a plan proposed by German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schauble (Germany took over the EU presidency January 1, 2007) which would result in an EU-wide network of national data bases accessible by participating countries with regard to the investigation, prevention and prosecution of terrorism, cross border crime, and illegal immigration. The system would be based on that outlined in the 2005 Prum Treaty, which just came into force in November 2006. The Treaty, which was signed May 27, 2005, envisages a broad range of cross border cooperation including information exchange, sky marshalls, counter-terrorism cooperation, illegal immigration, repatriation, joint cross-border policing operations, and civil crisis management. This agreement may now be expanded to become part of the legal framework of the EU. However, this will require enactment of the Prum treaty language in the form of new EU legislation. The Prum Treaty’s current adherents are Austria Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Spain. Italy, Finland and Slovenia had also stated their intention to join the Treaty.

This latest development would expand coverage throughout the EU.

The treaty, which is just now coming into effect, will expand joint police operations such as joint patrols and cross-border intervention to avert immediate danger. It grants executive powers to police officers of other contracting states to act in cross border situations, and will allow, for example, police officers from another member country to be deployed to enhance security at large-scale public events or civil disturbances in another country.

The Prum Treaty, and subsequent EU-wide arrangement, will also allow participating states to give one another automated access to specific crime-related national databases. They will have full and direct online readable access to a broad range of information which will include, inter alia, vehicle registration, DNA analysis files and dactyloscopic (fingerprint) files.

The treaty provides special authorities in cases dealing with counter-terrorism or traveling violent offenders. In such cases, member countries will have the ability to query national data systems of any of the participating countries to find out whether it contains data concerning a specific profile, including personal data. In other cases such personal data will be handled pursuant to mutual legal assistance arrangements.

The beneficial results of the Prum treaty are already evident, stated Minister Schauble:

“Under the treaty Austria and Germany have been able to check the contents of their national DNA databases against each other since early December 2006. This is the first time that two countries have granted each other access to their national police databases using a hit/no hit method. In just six weeks, when German untraceables were checked against the Austrian database, 1500 matches were found, and when Austrian untraceables were checked against the German database, 1400 matches resulted. “On the basis of these results, where untraceables could be matched with a person in the database, police investigators are now able to match hits with unsolved crimes. Thus, it can be expected that Germany and Austria will be able to solve unsolved crimes and prosecute and punish the offenders. “These figures are proof that the idea behind the Prüm Treaty to create a network of existing national databases is a simple, yet very effective means to fight cross-border crime and international terrorism.”

A Mess in Mindanao

By Zachary Abuza

This weekend saw a number of charges leveled and arrests of members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), that threaten to derail the peace process. Police charged nine members and “former members” of the MILF for the 5 January bombing in Cotabato, in which there were no deaths.

Of the nine, two are fairly well known: Ustadz Wahid Tondok and Abdulbasit Usman. Ustadz Wahid Tondok is a longtime member of the MILF and a senior commander. He is the head of the 105th Base Command based in the southwestern corner of the Liguasan Marsh into the foothills of Taliyan. He has always had a reputation as a hardliner in the MILF, and one of those most responsible for giving sanctuary to Abu Sayyaf and members of Jemaah Islamiyah. In 2005-06, the leader of the MILF reportedly doubled the number of base commands and assembled them under five regional Front Commands led by key loyalists. This was ostensibly done to marginalize some of the more radical commanders like Tondok (the other being Ustadz Ameril Umbra Kato who police say is also a suspect). There have been sporadic reports that Wahid Tondok was expelled from the MILF, though I have no evidence of this.

The MILF strenuously denies that Abdulbasit Usman is or has ever been a member of the MILF. Many debriefs of JI members contradicts this. There is considerable evidence that he was under Mukhlas Yunos, the head of the MILF’s special operations group, which trained besides the ASG and JI, until his capture in 2003. He has been linked to a string of bombings in Mindanao in 2006. MILF officers are not paid, and it is not inconceivable that he has simply been a gun for hire.

The other seven, according to the police are members of the MILF’s armed wing the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces. They are: Siyo Obal, Sajid Pakiladatu, Sedik Sotto, Ustadz Hawon, Pitta Otto, Abdul Haq; and Kule Mamaging.

Over the weekend, police announced that they had arrested four other MILF members for the 10 January bombing in Cotabato that killed 1: The first, Surab Anok, was arrested in Cotabato in Cotabato on 12 January. The following day, Hussein Ahaddin was arrested in Zamboanga City. The police then arrested four more individuals on Saturday on Cotabato. The MILF confirmed that two, Mike Dalama and Andy Kalid, were members; it is unclear whether the other two, Norodin Salik and Esmael Abo, were members of the Front. The police claim that the four were caught with detonating chord, a blasting cap, a one-time fuse attached to a motorcycle were seized from the suspects. The police did not believe that this group were involved in the 10 January Bombing in General Santos that killed 6 and wounded over 20.

The MILF has responded strenuously, at first in a formal protest to the ceasefire committee (CCCH) and then on its website. Von al Haq, the head of the MILF-CCCH, denied that the Front had anything to do with the four recent bombings and stated that these arrests are considered "prohibited hostile acts" under paragraph 3.1.1 of the Implementing Guidelines of the current ceasefire and called it a “blatant violation,” that “totally undermines the GRP–MILF peace process."

The MILF website has insinuated that a high level politician – read the ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan – ordered the arrests to discredit his rivals the MILF and to undermine the peace process.

Hardliners on all sides of this conflict abound and there are, sadly, a large number of spoilers.

European Jihadists Recruited for Action in Somalia

By Evan Kohlmann

Ever since Usama Bin Laden first endorsed the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in their jihad against the internationally-backed Somali government early last July, European counterterrorism services have been carefully watching as homegrown militants living in the West have sought to journey for a chance at fighting in Somalia's new "holy war." On December 28, as reported today by the London Times, a notorious London-based extremist group formerly known as Al-Muhajiroun issued a statement directly endorsing the participation of British Muslims in the ongoing Somali conflict. According to the statement, Somalia is a formerly prosperous "Muslim land" that became an unfortunate victim of Western imperialism:

"Under the guise of providing humanitarian relief the UN and it allies (thousands of troops) occupied the Muslim land. This was totally rejected by the Islamists who small in number and poorly equipped killed many UN workers including 24 Pakistani apostates. At least 31 US soldiers were slain, whose bodies were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu (capital city) to show the world that this so called superpower is nothing but a bunch of cowards. These operations made the foreign occupying forces rethink their strategy and quickly withdrew in fear of losing more men."

Furthermore, according to the statement:

"Today the zeal of Islam is being reverberated all over the world and our courageous brothers and sisters in Somalia have asked the Muslims all over the world to support them and Allah (swt) has made it an obligation upon us to support them... The Ethiopians with full international support (from the Christian crusader regimes) and directly backed by illegitimate Israel (zionists) have violated the blood of the Muslims in Somalia. By committing such an act of terrorism the Muslims in Somalia and nearby lands have responded to the divine call of Jihad. The obligation of supporting the Jihad all over the world (including Somalia) is Fard Ayn (an individual obligation). You can fulfil this duty financially, physically and verbally. This honourable act must be carried out according to your own capabilities... no Muslim (man or woman) has an excuse of doing nothing at all."

It should be noted that Al-Muhajiroun members and disciples have previously traveled to various foreign conflict zones and have thereupon joined foreign terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaida, Hamas, and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Two former London-area followers of Al-Muhajiroun executed a suicide bomb attack on behalf of Hamas targeting a British-themed pub in Tel Aviv in 2003.

CIA, Military Reveal Acquisition of Domestic Bank Records

By Jonathan Winer

The revelations in today's New York Times and Washington Post that the Department of Defense and the CIA have been issuing "non-mandatory" national security letters in unknown numbers to gain access to financial records from American companies raise some disturbing issues.

Notably, Congress has previously refused to provide these agencies with the authority to subpoena such documents, on the basis that the FBI already had this authority and that it was a bad idea to get the CIA and Defense Department to engage in domestic spying.

Given that the FBI already had this authority and has been using it at the rate of some 9000 times per year, it is not clear why the CIA and Defense Department have needed it. The initial efforts to justify it raise more questions than they answer. According to the NY Times, "military intelligence officials with knowledge of them said the military had issued the letters to collect financial records regarding a government contractor with unexplained wealth." That sounds like a rationale for a domestic FBI procurement fraud investigation, not a rationale for a terrorist finance investigation by the military and the CIA.

Among those we already pay to undertake procurement fraud investigations are the GAO, the Defense Department Inspector General, the Defense Criminal Investigative Service, the Defense Contract Audit Agency, and the audit agencies of the Air Force, Army and Navy. The Justice Department has an entire National Procurement Fraud Initiative, again within the criminal justice system, that has civil and criminal components and which can undertake asset forfeitures. Given this, it is not self-evident that the time and resources of U.S. military intelligence personnel are well spent in secretly collecting the personal banking data of defense contractors to rule out the possibility that they may be covertly using their ill-gotten gains to help terrorists.

In the second case discussed in the articles, the technique was reportedly used by the military to obtain the U.S. financial records of the Muslim chaplain at Guantanamo Bay, a U.S. citizen, falsely suspected of supporting the terrorists. Again, when the person under investigation is an American the justification for doing this without the normal procedural protections of a law enforcement investigation is hard to understand.

Notably, the military officials cited in the article stated that they intend to keep all of the records they have obtained through the process more or less forever, even after a case has been closed. Again, there are regulations governing the uses of such records in a law enforcement setting, but there appear to be none applicable to these.

It is easy to distinguish this situation from the one involving U.S. accessing SWIFT and CHIPS wire transfers moving across national borders. There, the initiative was undertaken by the U.S. Treasury, the lead agency on terrorist finance. Access was limited to the movement of particular transactions to and from foreign sources of interest, thus enabling sophisticated link analysis to track the financial activities of specific targets found to be of high terrorist risk. Here, according to today's press accounts, the CIA and Defense Department asked for the complete bank account records of any American they were interested in, covering the person's purely domestic transactions as well as international ones, without any form of oversight, check or balance, without apparent disclosure to the Congress, and in the face of significant Congressional opposition.

There are strong reasons to support military and CIA missions to obtain and analyze financial intelligence on terrorists overseas. The military and CIA have a comparative advantage over our domestic law enforcement agencies when they are operating overseas, especially in a hostile environment. There are treasure troves of data that can and should be mined by our intelligence and military agencies whenever they gain access to, for example, the computer disks of the Ba'ath party in Baghdad or Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and as NATO did in the past in Bosnia. In such cases, the work of the military and the CIA on terrorist finance document acquisition and analysis can be fundamental.

In short, there is much for the CIA and the military to do on terrorist finance involving information that is outside of the U.S. and not likely to raise domestic civil rights concerns. As greater scrutiny is given to the existing terrorist finance efforts of the military and the CIA, one hopes the baby will not be thrown out with the bathwater.

Apparent Signs of Renewed Friction Between Sunni Insurgents

By Evan Kohlmann

A new communiqué issued by Sunni insurgents in Iraq appears to indicate continuing rifts between moderates and extremists concerning participation in the political process with the Iraqi government. On January 10, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Front (a.k.a. JAAMI) blasted purported allegations from the Al-Qaida-led "Islamic State of Iraq" accusing JAAMI of abandoning its mujahideen partners and, instead, working with the reviled Iraqi Islamic Party on political negotiations with the U.S.-backed Iraqi government. Printed statements distributed in the al-Amiriyah neighborhood of Baghdad had claimed:

“…It is now obvious to the believers that the Salahudeen Brigades are connected or originate from the [Iraqi] Islamic Party, which has betrayed Allah, his Prophet, and the believers. That same Islamic Party is an ally and supporter of the… apostate government of al-Maliki who is fighting the Islamic State of Iraq under the orders of the infidel countries. Therefore, anyone who has joined these brigades either knowingly and unknowingly should ask for forgiveness, return to the path of Allah, and turn over their weapon and vehicles to the Islamic State of Iraq…”

Eritrean Troops Have Been Active in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have an article at Pajamas Media today that contains new revelations about Eritrea's role in the war in Somalia: Eritrean troops were active on the Islamic Courts Union's side when hostilities began, and some Eritreans have been killed in combat. An excerpt:

A confidential UN report drafted by the Monitoring Group on Somalia in late 2006 says that "2000 fully equipped combat troops from Eritrea" arrived to the north of Mogadishu in late August, and redeployed to different areas held by the ICU. According to high-level sources in Somalia's transitional government and U.S. intelligence, these Eritrean troops never left the country -- a development unknown to American policymakers until today.

Eritrea, an African nation found between the Red Sea and Ethiopia, has a history of violence with its larger neighbor. Eritrea fought a bloody campaign for independence from Ethiopia, which had annexed it in the early 1960s, and has since fought a border war with Ethiopia from 1998 until December 2000.

Eritrea supported the ICU as a proxy intended to destabilize Ethiopia, said Dahir Jibreel, the permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation for Somalia's transitional government.

Pajamas Media spoke with Ismael "Buubba" Hurreh, the minister of foreign affairs and international cooperation for the transitional government of Somlia. He said that Eritrean soldiers have been fighting on the front lines alongside the ICU, and that hundreds of Eritreans have been killed since Ethiopia's incursion.

This revelation sheds further light on how Eritrea has actively helped the ICU try to topple Somalia's secular government. While the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia's report makes clear that Eritrea provided a great deal of assistance to the Islamic Courts prior to the outbreak of the conflict with Ethiopia, this is the first confirmation that Eritrean troops have assumed an active combat role.

A senior U.S. military intelligence officer confirmed that Eritrean troops were killed during the initial fighting in Somalia. He said that the Eritreans were "assisting and facilitating," essentially in a military advisor role, rather than taking the kind of active role that the Ethiopians have on the side of the transitional government. He declined to specify what kind of assistance the Eritreans have provided.

Read the whole article here.

Excerpts from Future Jihad's international version

By Walid Phares

Following are excerpts from Future Jihad's international paperback version: "Terrorist Strategies against the West" as published in World Defense Review and Family Security Matters this week. The new chapter summarizes the global trends and battlefields of the Jihadists worldwide.

Pessimism in the Intelligence Community

By Douglas Farah

The overwhelmingly negative assessment of the U.S. counter-terrorism strategy laid out by John Negroponte and other leaders of the intelligence community in the annual worldwide threat assessment was surprisingly under-reported.

But buried in the bleak assessment, one of the starkest in recent reports, was a realistic outline of the spreading threats on multiple Islamist fronts that we are facing.

The report was notable for its candor and the end to the happy talk that has often made its way into assessments on the struggle against the _jihadist_ threat. What is amazing is that, five years and billions of dollars after 9-11, we are falling behind in the conflict. We are not even really competing in the field of ideas, and we have done little to mitigate the broader problems.

Part of the problem is that there is still no general consensus on who the enemy is and if a war exists. Until we decide that, little else of import can happen.

The enemy is the ideology and theology that is still be funded by billions of dollars a year to spread its poison. There are two different poisons-the Salafist-Sunni version funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, and the Shia poison funded by Iran. Both are aimed at killing us before they turn on each other. My full blog is here.

Oxymoronic Perception: “Pakistan is genuine in fighting terror,” & “Al Qaeda active, strong in Pakistani hideout”

By Animesh Roul

In less than 24 hours Senior US officials aired two contradictory statements on Pakistan, and al Qaeda:

On January 11, Richard Boucher, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, while talking to media men in Kabul, Afghanistan, said that Pakistan’s commitment to fighting terrorism is genuine and Islamabad remains an important ally of the US. He said, Pakistan "is committed to this not just because we are all concerned about terrorism, but because of the commitment that they have [...] of orienting Pakistan in a different direction," […] and Pakistan wants to create a "modern society that is free from the kind of extremism, terrorism that has beset Pakistan and some of its neighbors in the past."

Same day, elsewhere, the outgoing U.S. intelligence chief, John Negroponte, indicated to a Senate Intelligence Committee (SIC), that al-Qaeda has re-established its global headquarters in Pakistan and the terrorist group has established a secure hideout in Pakistan. In written testimony to the SIC, Negroponte also said "Pakistan is our partner in the war on terror and has captured several Al Qaeda leaders. However, it is also a major source of Islamic extremism." According to him, “they are cultivating stronger operational connections and relationships that radiate outward from their leaders' secure hide-out in Pakistan to affiliates throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Europe."

Video: Purported Chemical Rocket Attack on U.S. Base in Samarra, Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

On Tuesday, January 9, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Front (a.k.a. JAAMI) issued a video recording purportedly depicting a rocket attack on a U.S. base in Samarra using a warhead containing a homemade chemical weapon. The U.S. military has no reports of any injuries or deaths relating to the deployment of such a weapon, and thus far, it is unclear whether the substance was actually toxic or not.

Click to view video of homemade chemical-tipped rocket from JAAMI

HS Future Terrorism Task Force findings: "Salafi Jihadism is the main threat"

By Walid Phares

The Task Force on Future Terrorism formed by the Homeland Security's Advisory Council (HSAC) released its findings today in Washington DC, in the presence of Secretary Chertoff, other US leaders and the media. In his remarks, Task Force chairman Lee Hamilton said the group expect al Qaeda and other Islamic radicals to continue to attempt to attack the US. He said motivations behind these potential attacks are "complex" and include extremist ideologies. He added that while it is impossible to predict with precisions, three elements are to be taken into consideration: Terrorists leadership, political and economic reform in the Muslim world and safe havens (as in Pakistan). Frank Cilluffo, the vice chairman of the Task Force said "home and prison radicalization is very important" in the growth of the threat. He mentioned that a "lexicon" has to be established to engage in the "battle of ideas."

The findings, as announced today, include a variety of assessments and recommendations. It is important that the community of counter terrorism experts review the findings and evaluate it, as they are now a basis for a policy discussion at the level of Government. Two CTB members were consulted during the research sessions: Steve Emerson and myself. Among the points raised by HSAC are the following issues related to the War of Ideas, along with my comments :

1) "There is every indication that the number and magnitude of attacks on the U.S., its interests and its allies will likely increase.".
Comment: It would be important for the CT community to begin working on the parameters of this projection: the almost certainty that the magnitude of attacks will increase.

2) The most significant terrorist threat to the homeland and to U.S. interests abroad today is a growing radical, extremist movement underpinned by a jihadist/Salafist ideology.
Comment: As projected by the majority of Terrorism experts, and against the views of the majority of academics in the field of Middle East Studies, the confirmation of the Jihadi-Salafi ideology as the root of "the most significant terrorist threat to the US" is a major statement. Experts and analysts should expand on this finding and establish the various programs to show the links between the ideology and Terror. Also, I advice those members in Congress who are now involved in national security, defense and homeland security to act in light of this important finding and expand legislative work to investigate this threat and respond to it.

3.) "The Internet enhances the full range of terrorist activities (training, target selection, planning, execution and other tradecraft), and is an especially powerful tool for spreading their message and recruiting and enlisting into the jihadists’ ranks."
Comment: Such a finding should be noted, especially by US courts dealing with Terrorism. Terrorism cases have crumbled in the past few years because of the incapacity of the judicial system in absorbing the real threat of Jihadism online.

4. American Muslims noted the report are, less alienated than Muslims living in Western Europe, where the "homegrown" threat is significant and rising.
Comment: This finding should be expanded and analysis should be directed to understand the tactics used by the Jihadists to exploit "alienation" in Europe and compare with the tactics used by radicals in this country to "create" alienation, so that it could be exploited inthe future.

5. "Countering "home-grown" radicalization must be one of the Department's top priorities by using the Department's Radicalization and Engagement Working Group (REWG) to better understand the process - from sympathizer to activist to terrorist.
Comment: In other words, the US Department of Homeland Security must develop a strategy to counter the process of formation of a terrorist from supporter of Jihadism to actual followers, and eventually become an executer of Jihadism terror. I would recommend a new area of research which I have initiated in my book Future Jihad in chapter "Mutant Jihad." In short: Establish a system that would intercept the Jihadist process at its early stages instead of meeting it at its last stages.

6. "The Department should work with subject matter experts to ensure that the lexicon used within public statements is clear, precise and does not play into the hands of the extremists."
Comment: This recommendation is the most delicate among all others. The Europeans have failed dramatically in producing an anti-Jihadi lexicon because they relied on the advice of academics and researchers who advocated the "innocence" of Jihadism and proposed a different linguistic direction for the lexicon. Results: Further radicalization in Europe. The US Homeland Security projection has been successful in projecting that "language" is an issue. The next step is to ensure that the "lexicon" will be in line with the general strategic findings of the report: that is to reject the Jihadi logic with the help of a democratic, secular and constitutional discourse, not by increasing the reference to religious concepts in response to religious Jihadism. We will develop soon a platform in this sense.

Find below the full text of the findings:

The "Material Support" Test for Terrorism

By Jonathan Winer

In his speech on Iraq last night, President Bush describing Iran as providing "material support for attacks on U.S. troops," and identified Syria and Iran as providing terrorists with staging areas. The phrase "material support" is an interesting one, as the "material support" language comes straight from legislation pertaining to terrorism that makes it a federal crime to provide "material support" to terrorists.

The Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act defines “material support” for terrorists as providing “currency or monetary instruments of financial securities, financial services, lodging, training, expert advice or assistance, safe houses, false documentation or identification, communications, equipment, facilities, weapons, lethal substances, explosives, personnel transportation, and other physical assets, except medicine or religious materials."

Title 18 of the U.S. Code has long provided criminal penalties for persons who provide material or financial support for terrorism and for foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). The PATRIOT Act enhanced the criminal penalties and expanded jurisdiction over the crime of providing support for terrorism. The provisions of Title 18, as amended by the PATRIOT Act, include “persons” (including, again, both individuals and organizations) known or suspected to be engaged in terrorism. Further, the relevant provisions of Title 18, as amended by the PATRIOT Act, impose fines and terms of imprisonment of up to 15 years for any entity that provides material support or resources knowing or intending that they be used in terrorist acts or by FTOs. Title 18 also provides a specific civil cause of action against those who violate the criminal prohibitions against providing support for terrorism.

So is providing "material support for attacks on U.S. troops" the same as providing "material support for terrorists?" If it is, then the U.S. government has in essence declared all those in Iran directing the activity to be in violation of U.S. criminal law.

Taken in context, it appears President Bush is making precisely this assessment, publicly throwing a big shot across the bow to Iran and one only a touch smaller to Syria.

With what consequences? There are a lot of options here for the U.S., from undertaking more regulatory action of the kind taken this week against Bank Sepah, and leveraging that multilaterally, and continuing all the way to federal criminal indictments against foreign officials who provided the "material support" to terrorists, backed by the threat of extraordinary renditions. And that's just on the criminal justice side. There are also always other options.

Saber rattling or something more?

Bangladesh under Emergency: Islamic Militants Might Have Free Run Amid Chaos

By Animesh Roul

After months of street violence, arson, widespread unrest and protest, Bangladesh President and Chief Advisor of caretaker government, Iajuddin Ahmed declared a state of emergency on January 11 (Thursday) and announced on national television that the 22 January vote was postponed as, “It's not possible to hold the elections on schedule." While stepping down, Iajuddin Ahmed observed, "Political animosity, mistrust and violence have made life miserable for the people and made the future of democracy uncertain."

The civil unrest started October 2006 due to a tug of war among major political parties to hold or not to hold the general election, took almost 50 lives so far. The declaration of emergency came after the United Nations has suspended all technical support for elections. All international agencies backed out. The US-based National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and the International Republican Institute refused to monitor the elections, so also the European Union has suspended its election observation mission. The situation prompted the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to underscore that “The political crisis in Bangladesh has severely jeopardized the legitimacy of the electoral process. And the United Nations has had to suspend all technical support to the electoral process, including by closing its International Coordination Office for Election Observers in Dhaka."

Serious political instability emerged when the multi-party alliance headed by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina (of Awami League -AL) stand firm to boycott the poll on grounds that the ballot would not be free and impartial under the interim caretaker government, which according to Hasina, is biased towards main rival Khaleda Zia’s coalition.

My Twin Questions on Any Iraq Strategy

By Andrew Cochran

I have two questions that President Bush's speech didn't answer, and I haven't read a good answer to them today. First, how will this or any strategy halt the funding of the insurgency? The Iraq Study Group found, "Funding for the Sunni insurgency comes from private individuals within Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, even as those governments help facilitate U.S. military operations in Iraq by providing basing and overflight rights and by cooperating on intelligence issues." (Page 29.) On November 26, after obtaining a classified U.S. report, the New York Times reported, "The insurgency in Iraq is now financially self-sustaining, raising tens of millions of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, connivance by corrupt Islamic charities and other crimes that the Iraqi government and its U.S. patrons have been largely unable to prevent. The report, obtained by The New York Times, estimates that groups responsible for many of the insurgent and terrorist attacks are raising $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities." That is an enormous amount of money, sufficient to fund an insurgency for a long time. And here is another example from another news story in December: "In one recent case, an Iraqi official said $25 million in Saudi money went to a top Iraqi Sunni cleric and was used to buy weapons, including Strela, a Russian shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile." I told several Congressmen and staff last fall that "Zarqawi died fat," meaning that the most wanted man in the Middle East never lacked for money. If we can't stop the money, the insurgents can finance attacks and tactical delays forever.

Second, how will we stop, and then reverse, the exodus of the Iraqi middle class? Since the Samarra shrine bombing almost a year ago, the middle class, from whom the next generation of Iraqi democrats should come, began to leave in droves. A November U.N. report indicated that nearly 100,000 Iraqis are leaving the country every month. There is no better indicator of the lack of confidence by Iraqis in the country's future. If they don't believe it will survive intact, why should we?

I was optimistic on Iraq until I saw these trends emerging last year. And absent reversals in these trends, I doubt that any American strategy will have a positive long-term impact on Iraq's future.

Speech from GSPC Commander in Algeria: "We are Coming"

By Evan Kohlmann

The Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)--the dominant Al-Qaida sub-group active in North Africa--has released a new videotaped speech of its leader Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud dated January 3 and titled, "We are Coming." Directing his first message to Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, Wadoud beseeched, "only Allah knows how much we miss you, and how hard it is for us to be far from you. In the name of Allah, if we could be carried by birds, we would come to you. We remember you in our hearts and visualize you in our minds. We ask Allah to reunite us after missing you for so long." While addressing Bin Laden, Wadoud likewise declared, "We are eagerly awaiting your instructions and orders regarding the next phase." The GSPC commander further challenged the notion that the Algerian jihad has collapsed, indicating that Islamist fighters are still continuing their war against the Bouteflika government in Algeria. According to Wadoud--rather than laying down its arms under a proposed amnesty agreement--the GSPC has in fact managed to recently acquire substantial new "stores of weapons and ammunition."

Click to view English transcript of Wadoud speech c/o Globalterroralert.com

Long-Awaited Progress Against the Abu Sayyaf, But Bombs Rock Southern Philippines

By Zachary Abuza

The US military has been training and supporting the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) since early 2002. Despites hundreds of millions in aid, training and equipment, the AFP had precious little to show for it. But that seems to be changing now. Four years of joint exercises, and US Special Forces stationed down to the battalion level seems to be bearing fruit. Yet, on 10 January, three bombs exploded in three separate cities in Mindanao: the southern Philippine port city of General Santos, killing six and wounding around 20, and in Kidapawan and Cotabato Cities. There was one person killed in Cotabato and almost ten people were wounded in the two bombings. The bombings are likely the work of some Abu Sayyaf in retaliation for recent government offensives and Umar Basit, whom police contend is a member of the MILF; the MILF claim that they expelled him.

The AFP launched "Operation Ultimatum" in early August 2006 to finish off some 120-200 militants under Khadaffy Janjalani’s control on Jolo Island. In addition, they are thought to be accompanied by roughly six members of Jemaah Islamiyah including the two Bali bombers, Dulmatin and Umar Patek. To date there are well over 7,500 AFP in Jolo. The AFP claims to have lost nearly 20 soldiers and marines, and another 90 wounded in the campaign. The AFP estimated that almost 60 rebels had been killed though under 20 bodies had been found. At one point the AFP claimed that 80 rebels had been killed. The terrain is very mountainous and covered in a dense jungle canopy.

The past few weeks have seen a string of victories against the ASG. ASG captives led AFP to the body of what they claimed to be Khadaffy Janjalani. The FBI is conducting DNA tests now.

More significant was an AFP operation conducted on 6 January. AFP tracked a boat leaving Jolo Island, making its way to Tawi Tawi. A joint operation between sea and land troops led to the death of 5 ASG and an Indonesian member of JI. Naval forces chased and blocked the escape route of the six, while ground forces tracked them down. While not overly sophisticated, this was a successful joint operation of the AFP. One hopes it becomes routine.

The President's Address: Counterinsurgency in Iraq/Countering Iran

By Aaron Mannes

In war movies (and occasionally in actual battles) last minute rallies carrying the day, just as things look most desperate, are a frequent plot device. This is roughly President Bush’s play with the troop surge he announced in his speech earlier this evening.

Counterinsurgency however is not a sprint - it is a marathon.

Dr. David Kilcullen, an Australian Lt. Colonel advising the U.S. government has described the goal of counterinsurgency as returning “the insurgency’s parent society to its normal mode of interaction, on terms favorable to us.” The means are, in Kilcullen’s words, “armed social work.”* Other experts have variously described counterinsurgency as establishing legitimate authority by providing basic services, most notably ensuring the personal security – the first priority of any government. This would be an enormous challenge in any circumstance, but in an insurgency an adaptive foe is devoting all of its energies to undermining the re-establishment of lawful order.

This is not a task that is accomplished quickly. Campaigns are measured at best in years and frequently in decades. While 20,000 troops dedicated to securing Baghdad may help on the ground it may hurt in that other crucial front – the information war.

Arms and Qur'an: Not A Good Omen for India!

By Animesh Roul

Indian Customs officials have reportedly seized a huge quantity of rifles and air guns at southern Indian port of Kochi (also Cochin) from a container on January 09. The arms full of Container, reached at the port from Dubai late December, contains more than 800 packets in 37 cartons. Things, more suspicious than the Guns, are copies of Qur'an found inside the boxes. After thorough searches officials have found gas powered air rifles and air guns, which were concealed along with plastic furniture, flowers, baby cots and blankets.

According to senior officials, the air rifles belong to the restricted category and internationally reputed foreign brands namely Diana Airking, Diana Magnum and Baretta. In this connection, Kerala Police have been searching for the importer Koya Haji from Chettupuzha, Trissur and the Premier Exports of Kochi and Palson Trading Company of Dubai are under scanner for this consignment.

However, no arrests have been made so far and the Intelligence Bureau, Special Branch, Naval Intelligence and police officials are investigating the matter. It is believed that these arms meant for terrorist training purposes.

Bosnia Suicide Bomb Plotters Found Guilty (UPDATED)

By Evan Kohlmann

(*UPDATE*) News of the conviction has been officially confirmed by the Bosnian court.

According to eyewitness reports from Sarajevo, the Supreme Court of Bosnia-Herzegovina has found three defendants--Mirsad Bektašević, Abdulkadir Cesur and Bajro Ikanović--guilty on terrorism charges in a landmark case involving jihadists from across the European continent. The defendants had purchased explosives from a local source in Bosnia and allegedly planned to carry out suicide attacks against Western targets across Europe. The leader of the cell, Swedish national Mirsad Bektašević (a.k.a. “Maximus”) was initially based in Sweden and then traveled on to Bosnia “to plan an attack aimed at forcing Bosnia or another government to withdraw forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.” In a videotape recovered by Bosnian police, masked militants were shown building explosives while another individual—allegedly Bektašević himself—explained to the camera, “This weapon will be used against Europe, against those whose forces are in Iraq and Afghanistan… These two brothers ... have given their lives to God to help their brothers and sisters. We are here and we are planning and we have got everything ready.” Mobile phone records also showed that Bektašević was communicating with other known extremists based in Denmark and the United Kingdom. He was also believed to be running a recruitment operation sending young European jihadi recruits on to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. Moreover, at least one of the suspects arrested in Bosnia-Herzegovina in connection with the Bektašević network was the former accountant of a financial front company run by veterans of the El-Mudzahedin Unit in Sarajevo and Zenica.

Bektašević has been sentenced to fifteen years in prison, while Abdulkadir Cesur received a sentence of thirteen years. Over the course of the expansive case, the Bosnian Supreme Court trial panel has held a total of 22 hearings, lasting over 88 hours.

See also: - Indictment filed against Bektašević, Cesur, and Ikanović

(CATS Paper, 2006) - "The Afghan-Bosnian Mujahideen Network in Europe"

- Newsweek: Online Face of Terror

Will the U.S. Win in Somalia?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

After yesterday's revelation that the U.S. military has played an active role in Somalia since the Ethiopian intervention began in earnest, now is a good time to take stock of the factors that will determine whether the U.S. mission succeeds. This morning I have a new article at the Daily Standard that addresses the critical questions. An excerpt:

One factor that will determine whether the ICU successfully launches an insurgency in the near future is the scope of the losses it suffers on the battlefield now. Military intelligence analysts feel that the ICU will bounce back unless a significant portion of its fighters are killed or captured. There appears to be an important opportunity at present: a large number of ICU fighters are massed in Ras Kamboni, a coastal town near the Kenyan border where they appear to have gone to regroup.

Estimates of the number of ICU fighters in Ras Kamboni provided by intelligence analysts and sources within the TFG vary widely. The number of fighters has been placed as low as 600 and as high as 5,000. But clearly there is a significant contingent. ICU members in Ras Kamboni appear to be communicating with high-level al Qaeda leaders: according to a senior military intelligence officer, their calls for assistance motivated Ayman al-Zawahiri's January 5 tape which urged his followers to go to Somalia to fight alongside the ICU.

Ethiopian, TFG, and American forces are currently forming a cordon around Ras Kamboni in an effort to prevent ICU fighters from escaping. But there are signs that the ICU is also attempting to regroup in Kenya and Yemen, just as the Taliban regrouped in Pakistan after it was toppled from power in Afghanistan.

Beyond the question of how many ICU fighters can be taken out of action in the next few weeks, another critical military question is how long Ethiopia will continue its push. When Ethiopia intervened in Somalia in the mid-1990s to break up the radical al-Ittihad al-Islamiyya, it allowed the group's core leadership to escape intact. Those leaders went on to form the Islamic Courts. If Ethiopia does not finish the job this time, there will, again, be long-term consequences.

Read the whole article here.

The Strategy on Somalia

By Douglas Farah

The U.S. efforts to help dismantle the ICU Islamists in Somalia, with proxy forces defending their own national interests, is a model that we will likely seeing with increasing frequency in more remote areas of the world where the Islamist threat exists.

So far U.S. troops for the Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa have provided intelligence and air support to Ethiopian and Somali forces to keep the ICU forces from regrouping into a coherent resistence that can challenge the fragile government. The U.S. has helped where others did not possess the capability, but did not take a higly visible stance. So far, so good.

The strategy is risky, but better than almost any alternative available if the threat is already consolidating, as it certainly appeared to be in Somalia. U.S. boots on the ground would create instant hostility, and doing nothing in an area where diplomatic leverage is almost zero allows a threat to remain unchecked.

But the military side was the relatively easy part, as Iraq and Afghanistan have shown. My full blog is here.

$14 billion Iranian Bank Sepah Hit by US Sanctions

By Jonathan Winer

In a move that will have impact internationally, the U.S. Treasury announced the imposition of economic sanctions on Iran's fifth-largest bank, Bank Sepah, which has some 290 branches in Iran, a presence in Rome, Paris, and Frankfurt, and a wholly-owned subsidiary in London.

In announcing the move, Treasury Under Secretary Stuart Levey called the bank "the financial linchpin of Iran's missile procurement network" which " has actively assisted Iran's pursuit of missiles capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction."

Under Secretary Levey also said that Treasury would be calling on other countries to follow the U.S. action with their own.

Given the magnitude of Bank Sepah's operations, this move could have wide impact, to be discussed further in a later posting,

America's Boots on the Ground in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Andrew Cochran notes that yesterday's targeting of suspected high-value al-Qaeda terrorists in southern Somalia was "the first publicly acknowledged military action against Somalian territory since 1993." However, the U.S. has taken other military actions in Somali territory that preceded yesterday's strike. I have a news story at Pajamas Media this morning that reveals that U.S. air and ground involvement in this conflict stretches back to the beginning of the Ethiopians' campaign. An excerpt:

U.S. ground forces have been active in Somalia from the start, a senior military intelligence officer confirmed. "In fact," he said, "they were part of the first group in."

These ground forces include CIA paramilitary officers who are based out of Galkayo, in Somalia’s semiautonomous region of Puntland; Special Operations forces; and Marine units operating out of Camp Lemonier in Djibouti. . . .

The presence of U.S. airpower in Somalia became public knowledge yesterday when CBS News reported that an AC-130 fixed-wing gunship carried out a strike against suspected al-Qaeda members in southern Somalia. Unmanned aerial drones kept the targets under surveillance while a gunship operated by the U.S. Special Operations Command flew from its base in Djibouti to the southern tip of Somalia.

Pajamas Media previously reported that Ethiopia's use of helicopter gunships capable of targeting the Islamic Courts Union's ground forces was a decisive factor in the army-to-army fighting against the ICU. A senior military intelligence source says that some of the gunships earlier described as Ethiopian were in fact U.S. aircraft. This has been confirmed by Dahir Jibreel, the transitional government's permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation, who said that U.S. planes and helicopters with their markings obscured have been striking targets since December 25.

Given late breaking developments, SOCOM spokesman Ken McGraw was unavailable for comment at press time.

Jibreel said that the U.S. and Ethiopia planned this military incursion for several months. He said that he saw U.S. military planes and soldiers at Wajer, a strategic airstrip in Kenya, in October 2006.

Asked about the revelations of early U.S. support for the Ethiopian intervention, Jibreel said, "We believe that the United States was very helpful in defeating the al-Qaeda-guided and al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic Courts Union, and the foreign fighters who were essentially Eritreans, global jihadists, and Ethiopian opposition groups."

Read the whole article here.

U.S. Targets Al Qaeda's 1998 U.S. Embassy Bombers in Somalia Strike (updated 1/11)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE 1/11: A second wave of airstrikes was launched Tuesday against terrorists, but Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, director of Al Qaeda operations in East Africa, was apparently NOT killed.

In the first publicly acknowledged military action against Somalian territory since 1993, the U.S. targeted key Al Qaeda operatives on the run in Somalia. Among them is Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, a.k.a. Harun Fazul, suspected of masterminding the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, for which he was indicted in the U.S. Previous CT Blog posts provided background on the Al Qaeda operatives in Somalia and targeted in the strike, and the slow recognition of Al Qaeda's role in the ICU:

UPDATE, 1/9: Olivier Guitta picked up intel from the Saudi press on the presence of U.S. special forces in Somalia and posted it on January 3 in "US Special forces chasing Al Qaeda terrorists in Somalia" - "In fact, according to Saudi daily Al Watan, US Special forces based in Djibouti have been instructed to look for Al Qaeda terrorists in the south of Somalia."

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross:
"Islamic Courts Abandon Kismayo, Establish 'Shadow Governments,'" January 1: "Thus far, ICU forces have been melting away as the Ethiopians advance. This is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan. There is confirmation that the three suspects in the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings who were in Somalia escaped during the ICU's retreat."

"Somalia's Terrorists," Dec. 29: "Fazul Abdullah Mohammed and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, members of al-Qaeda's Somali cell, had returned to Somalia. They were financed by Sudanese al-Qaeda operative Tariq Abdullah (a.k.a. Abu Talha al-Sudani), who operated between Somalia and the UAE. Mohammed and Nabhan were involved in preparations for the 1998 embassy bombings, and masterminded the November 2002 Mombasa attack on the Paradise Hotel."

Douglas Farah:
"The Wrong Questions on Somalia," Jan. 8: "But there is ample evidence, from their own statements and actions, that the Court leadership that triumphed was a intergral link in the Islamist narrative, woven and rewoven in different conflicts around the globe."

"Blind Spots on Somalia," Dec. 18: "One of the most astonishing statements in today's Washington Post look at Somalia comes from John D. Negroponte, the director of national intelligence. Negroponte said that "I don't think there are hard and fast views," on al Qaeda in Somalia..."

"A Belated Acknowledgement on Somalia," Nov. 30: "Finally, rather than pretending Somalia is an unimportant side show in fighting Islamists in Africa, a senior official has actually acknowledged what is really happening. Jendayi Frazer, the State Department's head of Africa, told reporters that al Qaeda is operating 'with great comfort' in Somalia."

Here is the FBI's Most Wanted page on Fazul Abdullah Mohammed and a photo of him from that page:

Weird incidents in US airports are raising questions

By Olivier Guitta

The Saudi daily Al Watan just reported that there have been a number of thefts of airport vehicles in US airports in the past few days including an United Air car on Chicago O'hare's airport.
also attempts were made in the Buffalo airport to stael authorized vehicles and supposedly airport authorities around the country have noticed strange people watching restricted areas in airports.

Did the US prevent Israel from kidnapping Hezbollah's #2?

By Olivier Guitta

According to a German intelligence report cited by the Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah, US officials intervened to prevent Israel from "hijaking " the private Saudi plane transporting back to Beirut Naim Qassem, Hezbollah number 2 and MP Mohamed Fneich. Indeed the Hezbollah delegation met with Saudi King Abdullah on December 26 to discuss Lebanon. Still according to that report, the Mossad had learned about this trip and four Israeli fighter jets were preparing to intercept the plane in Lebanese airspace and make it land in Israel. But US authorities did not want to embarrass their Saudi "friends" and were afraid of the potential consequences of this action; that's why they strongly advised Israel against doing anything.

Suspicious Device at Port of Miami Destroyed and Contained No Explosives (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE, 4:19 pm ET: A "suspicious device" was found on a pallet at the Port of Miami, and the Coast Guard reported that six tests for explosives were positive for traces of the C4 plastic explosive. The package was included in provisions to be loaded aboard a large cruise ship leaving today. CNN and others reported that businesses nearby were asked to evacuate, and news choppers were advised to avoid the immediate area while the device is examined by the Miami-Dade County bomb squad. The bomb squad conducted a small controlled explosion on the dock, with no secondary explosion. Miami-Dade police note that the tests sometimes give a "false positive."

Port officials at a press conference announced just after 4 pm ET that the device contained no actual explosives and included sprinkler parts for the cruise ship. So this became a good test of the Miami-area homeland security and CT capabilities. There is no explanation of the positive tests for the C4 trace, and that gives the local officials something to fix.

Picture of controlled explosion of "suspicious device" (MSNBC)

Mixed Feelings from Sunni Insurgents on Execution of Saddam Hussein

By Evan Kohlmann

In the wake of the execution of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein on December 30, only one prominent Sunni insurgent organization--the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Front (JAAMI)--has issued any statement acknowledging or responding to Saddam's demise. JAAMI and its armed wing, the Salahudeen Brigades, have always been among the more nationalist-oriented groups involved in the Iraqi insurgency--and thus, at least one would presume, more loyal to their ex-ruler than extreme Islamists (such as Al-Qaida in Iraq). Yet, in a statement published on January 4, JAAMI displayed little sense of mercy for Saddam Hussein, declaring that Hussein had "brought what happened... upon himself... Blessed and glorious Allah will execute justice upon him." The statement further accused Iran and the United States of conspiring to use the media to erroneously "lump Saddam and the Sunnis together." JAAMI did not attempt to deny the guilt of Saddam in committing war crimes, but rather demanded, "Why doesn’t the American administration take similar measures, or at least some of the same measures, with respect to the crimes that have been committed in Iraq since the occupation began and continue to be committed each day? Who is responsible for the massacres committed by the militias every day?"

Ominously, JAAMI's statement concluded with a call to "the mujahideen to strike the joints of the Iranian-American conspiracy with an iron fist and to coordinate their efforts with all the jihadist groups operating in the region in order to bring failure to their plans and defeat their agents and stooges."

Click to view JAAMI statement on the execution of Saddam Hussein c/o Globalterroralert.com

See also: State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006

Treasury Uses Sanctions Authority to Name More Syrian Proliferators

By Jonathan Winer

On January 4, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated as WMD proliferators three Syrian entities, the Higher Institute of Applied Science and Technology (HIAST), the Electronics Institute, and the National Standards and Calibration Laboratory (NSCL), prohibiting all U.S. persons from doing business with them and requiring them to freeze any assets associated with the three organizations.

The three companies are subsidiaries of the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC), a Syrian military research and development and industrial complex that was secretly supported in the past by Russian chemical experts to produce VX nerve gas, and which in the mid-1990's obtained missile components from China's Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation. In July 2003, an Israeli official contended that Syria had by then equipped its missiles with the VX nerve agent. According to various public sources, China, North Korea, Russia and Iran continue to provide Syria help with their rocket program, with Russia recently forgiving millions of dollars worth of Syrian debt to facilitate new purchases of proliferation-related goods by Syria.

The role of HIAST has been known for some time, raising the question of why it had not been named by Treasury previously. Both the Japanese and British governments have previously cited HIAST as involved in Syrian chemical and biological weapon programs. But the designation will likely have some chilling effect. In the past, HIAST has had scientific cooperation and exchanges with the European Community, United Nations organizations, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as British, Canadian, French and German universities. Although the U.S. action does not directly force any of these foreign countries and entities to shut down contacts, it is likely to at least make it more difficult for these companies to purchase the machine tools, flow-forming equipment, components for producing solid rocket propellant, measurement and control systems, and autoclaves they need to move forward with their WMD program.

The Wrong Questions on Somalia

By Douglas Farah

Part of the policy debate over what do to (or what should have been done) about Somalia centers on the question of the relationship between al Qaed and the Islamic Court movement.

Ambassador David Shinn of Georgetown University and many others, have cautioned that the ties of the Islamist movements to al Qaeda have been "overstated." The focus is usually on whether a handful of individuals of the old "core" al Qaeda were being sheltered by the Courts and if so, if that constituted a tie to terrorism.

That is the wrong question. The question that should be asked is not dependent on the presence of specific individuals who have sworn an oath to Osama bin Laden and the old organization of al Qaeda. It is whether the Courts were part of a broader Islamist movement seeking to impose _sharia_ law and create and entirely Muslim enclave that would constitute the beginnings (or the re-beginings) of the Islamist _caliphate_.

The answer in this case is clearly yes. There is a law enforcement interest in knowing if Fazul et al are in Somalia. But there is ample evidence, from their own statements and actions, that the Court leadership that triumphed was a intergral link in the Islamist narrative, woven and rewoven in different conflicts around the globe. My full blog is here.

U.S. Congressional Hearings on Iraq, Iran, & Security Threats

By Andrew Cochran

Committees in the U.S. Congress will hold numerous hearings this week on the situation in Iraq and on other terrorism-related threats. The hearings on terrorism issues outside Iraq this week include the following:

Implementing Recommendations of The 9/11 Commission
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee
Tuesday, Jan. 9, 9:30 a.m.
342 Dirksen Senate Bldg.

National Security Threat Assessment
Senate Select Intelligence Committee
Thursday, Jan. 11, 2:30 p.m.
216 Hart Senate Bldg.
Closed session will follow the open session.

House Foreign Affairs Committee
"Next Steps in the Iran Crisis"
Thursday, Jan. 11, 10 a.m.
2172 Rayburn House Bldg.

NYTimes: "The Ever-Mutating Iraq Insurgency"

By Evan Kohlmann

Building upon my recent report discussing the evolving infrastructure of Sunni insurgent groups in Iraq, the New York Times has graciously produced their own representation of my findings in today's Week In Review section.

"In the last three months, as Americans debated military options in Iraq, the Sunni insurgency there seemed to grow more extreme. A network of some of the fiercest fighters, dominated by Al Qaeda in Iraq, forged formal new alliances with several rebel groups and may have begun to draw others into its orbit, according to Evan F. Kohlmann... Until 2006, Mr. Kohlmann said, the Qaeda group was 'essentially losing' in Iraq... All that changed in February, when Al Qaeda in Iraq blew up with Askariya Mosque in Samarra, one of Shiite Islam's holiest shrines. 'That event opened the door to bloodletting between Sunnis and Shiites,' Mr. Kohlmann said, which was the intent... The Samarra bombing was followed by months of violent reprisals by Shiites against Sunnis. Al Qaeda in Iraq, virulently anti-Shiite, became a refuge for aggrieved and beleaguered Sunnis..."

Click to view "The Ever-Mutating Iraq Insurgency" from the NY Times

See also: (April 2006) - "Countering the New Dayton: A Shift in Strategy for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi"

Cleveland Imam Linked to PIJ is Deported

By Bill West

Fawaz Damra, the Cleveland Imam convicted in 2004 of lying on his naturalization documents about his links to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other radical Islamists, and who subsequently had his naturalized US citizenship revoked, was deported the other day to the Palestinian Territories after a complex and difficult prosecution effort by the US Government.

So ends (for now) a long saga of PIJ-related terror support in the US with this individual, who was directly linked to PIJ-supporter Sami Al-Arian as well as the Brooklyn mosque from where the first World Trade Center bombers hailed. The deportation sends a message that dogged, determined effort by fearless and skilled law enforcement and prosecution professionals in terrorism related cases pays off. A special note of recognition should go to Federal prosecutor Cherie Krigsman, who obtained the felony criminal indictment against Damra just days before the statute of limitations expired and who oversaw the difficult prosecution through to a successful conclusion. Without her recognition of the case potential and foresight in pursuing the prosecution, Damra would be walking the streets of America a free man.

That said, it is doubtful any of this justice would have happened to Damra had it not also been for the original ground-breaking investigative journalism done on PIJ support in the US by Steven Emerson, now Director of the Investigative Project on Terrorism and Michael Fechter of the Tampa Tribune, those many years ago in the mid-1990s. Identification, prosecution, conviction and, when appropriate, deportation...it works if the good guys and gals stick with it and believe in what they are doing!

Congratulations to all those involved in bringing this case to closure.

Assam Massacre: Militants Strike Back in Northeast India

By Animesh Roul

More than 30 people have been killed so far (the death toll could be higher) and scores injured in coordinated attacks in different parts of Sivasagar, Tinsukia and Dibrugarh districts of Assam. The mindless killings were perpetrated by suspected militants in India’s northeastern state of Assam within a span of two days and in at least six separate locations.

The killings began on late Friday night (Jan 5) targeting Hindi speaking migrant workers mostly Brick kiln laborers, fishermen and small time shopkeepers in Assam’s Tinsukia district. Around 13 villagers were shot dead in the fresh attack in the wee hours of Saturday (Jan 6) in Sadiya, while on the previous day militants killed at least 19 people mostly from the state of Bihar, and wounded 25 others in separate shootouts in Tinsukia and Diburgarh. Militants also have triggered couple of blasts targeting rail networks and succeeded in damaging a coach of the Dibrugarh bound Rajdhani Express.

The latest killings considered to be the worst act of savagery in Assam since 2000 when the ‘Mother of All Militancy in Northeast India’ United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) killed over 150 Hindi-speaking migrant workers in its quest to cleanse the state of so called "outsiders" or non-Assamese migrants. Also in November 2003, the ULFA had targeted laborers from neighboring Bihar state after a violence initiated by some student groups in the State. Thousands of people had fled their homes in Assam to escape mob and ULFA attacks in subsequent days.

Two New Studies on Islamism in Southeast Asia

By Zeyno Baran

The Hudson Institute, where I am a Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Eurasian Policy, just published two recent papers by scholars from the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (formerly called the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)), dealing with Islamism in Southeast Asia.

Terrorism in Southeast Asia: Threat and Response by the distinguished expert Rohan Gunaratna, gives an overview of the transformation of terrorist groups active in Southeast Asia. He also argues that these groups are increasing their cooperation with each other and with those in the Middle East. In fact, he states, the regional groups are no longer driven by primarily local politics or grievances, but rather by global concerns, particularly the war in Iraq.

In his study, The Bali Bombings: Impact on Indonesia and Southeast Asia, Arabinda Acharya discusses the Bali bombings, which he considered to be the “most notable event in the history of Southeast Asian extremism.” He discusses Imam Samudra’s justification of the Bali bombings, which he discussed in a best-selling book in Indonesia. Acharya believes that the Bali bombings led to the fragmentation of the Jemaah Islamiya. At the same time, the bombings also popularized the notion of an ongoing transnational jihad, and thereby increased radicalization among Southeast Asian Muslims.

Our Thanks to Many on Our Second Anniversary

By Andrew Cochran

Two years ago today, after dozens of hours of development and design, I pushed a couple of keyboard buttons and launched this blog; you can see my introductory post from that day. This is the 2,199th post, and we've added over 17,600 links to news and commentaries to the right sidebar. We are pleased that in the past year we've maintained our reputation in the CT community as a "must-read" site for breaking news and analysis. U.S. News & World Reports recently named us as one of the nine "Best Blogs of '06" in the investigative arena, an honor which inspires us to improve and grow. We sincerely appreciate our relationships with the dedicated reporters who cover these topics; many have risked their lives (and some lost their lives) to bring you inside details. Our friends in the blogosphere have been complimentary and recommended us to their readers, for which we are truly grateful. We especially thank our readers for your support, advice, and assistance in many ways (special tip to "Sophie" for your special e-mails).

My business partners and co-workers at GAGE LLC are fully supportive of this unpaid vocation in many ways every day. Leo Giacometto, the founding partner and a former chief of staff to a U.S. Senator, served as an officer in the U.S. Army, as the U.S. Marshal for Montana, and as a special staffperson for the State Department's Counterterrorism Section, during which he was deployed around the world. As a result, Leo understands the imperative of winning the long-term struggle against terrrorism and the contribution of this site towards that goal. His experience and contacts are invaluable.

Finally, I want to thank my friends and colleagues, the Contributing Experts, for their outstanding contributions and sound advice. They have broken stories on such issues as the fight against insurgents in Iraq, developments in Lebanon and Afghanistan, and the links between Islamic terror groups on different continents. Change is inevitable and usually good; just this week, Doug Farah added "Co-Editor" to his title, and we've undertaken an internal discussion of potential improvements. Jeffrey Imm is an irreplaceable partner for adding links to the "Newslinks" box, a true genius at finding the "hot" stories and commentaries of importance.

My hopes on this anniversary are the same as on our first anniversary last year. To quote, "We hope that we can close this site down someday for lack of terrorist activity. But until then, God willing, we'll be here. Many of the experts and I were able to visit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon sites after the 9/11 attacks. The vision of hell on earth that I saw at Ground Zero in New York City, and the tears of the victims' families standing next to me on the platform 100 feet from smoking rubble, drive me daily towards providing a single site to educate the world on the scope of the threats, our successes, and failures." And I dedicate the third year of this site as I did this past year: "to the victims of terrorism, be they Christian, Jewish, Muslim, or expressing any other faith or creed, in any corner of the globe."

Al-Zawahiri in New Tape: The U.S. "is weaker than before"

By Andrew Cochran

The new recording from Al Qaeda # 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri has been translated by Rita Katz's SITE Institute, and here is their transcript of it (Acrobat file). In it, al-Zawahiri tells his followers, "My Muslim brothers in Somalia, don't worry about the power of America, you already defeated it with the Help of Allah, and today, it is weaker than before. The Mujahideen already broke its back in Afghanistan and Iraq." This reiterates the messsage from Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, Al Qaeda's commander in Iraq, released right after the U.S. November elections, that the U.S. is a "bleeding bull in disarray" - see Walid Phares' posts on November 22 and November 10 on the political messages in that tape.

Picture of al-Zawahiri from new tape (courtesy SITE Institute)

A Veritable Who Dunnit: Theories Swirl in Bangkok, Bombings Remain Unsolved

By Zachary Abuza

With no claims of responsibility for the eight New Year’s Eve bombings and two confirmed defused bombs, that killed 3 and wounded 42, Bangkok is awhirl with speculation and rumors. Here are the different hypotheses that attribute the bombings to the deposed prime minister, his government, the police, the military and southern separatists.

In a three-page hand written letter faxed to his lawyer on 2 January, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra denied any role in the bombing. He attributed it to southern insurgents, which is interesting because for the past three years he almost denied that there was an insurgency, laying the unrest on drug gangs, and by denying that there could ever be bombings in Bangkok. In his letter he asserts that he warned government officials that the insurgents “will go to Bangkok” if they are not stopped. It is unlikely that Thaksin had any direct involvement: though unhappy with the 19 September coup that ousted him from power, he wants to return to Thailand and he clearly doesn’t want to give the authorities to go after his family’s assets, especially the illiquid fixed real estate holdings.

Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) likewise and unsurprisingly denied any involvement. All eyes at first were on them. Thaksin was corrupt, but he was smart enough to spread his wealth widely and a lot of people made their fortunes because of him. The coup led to a lot of lost earnings potential.

On Thursday, the interim Minister of Defense, Boonrawd Somtas, revealed that the bombers “were in uniform,” without elaborating. Rogue members of the police have been suspected. Thaksin, himself a former police, favored his former colleagues. After the coup, the police stood to lose a lot and were unhappy with the proposed reforms that the army was going to begin to impose on them.

But rogue elements in the military could also be blamed: many hardliners in the army have expressed unhappiness that coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin had not gone far enough in consolidating military rule and was too quick to hand back power to a democratically-elected civilian government. While martial law is still in effect, troops in the capital and many provinces had been returned to the barracks; troops are again patrolling in the capital. The return to democracy has suffered another setback.

Others in the military were very concerned and frustrated that the legal avenues to investigate and seize Thaksin’s allegedly ill-gotten wealth have so far not born fruit. It was interesting that within three hours of the first bombings, The Nation website posted a statement by an un-named member of the Council on National Security (CNS) that they were considering seizing Thaksin’s assets so that he would not continue to destabilize the country. The government has given Thaksin’s wife, Potjaman Shinawatra, who remains in Thailand, and her step-brother 15 days to report to the Assets Scrutiny Committee to defend themselves against criminal charges of tax evasion dating to the 1997 transfer of shares of the family’s Shin Corp.

Sonthi for his part went on TV today to publicly deny any role in the bombings. Bangkok was awhirl yesterday that another putsch was in the works and interim Prime Minister was looking shaky. Surayud has begun to insinuate that the bombings were part of a larger plan to destabilize the regime. He glumly warned, “This probably won't be the last time we see incidents of this kind...For some time in the future, we must prepare our hearts and minds to face this new form of threat to people's lives.'' A public opinion poll released today, popular support for Surayud and his government, which was 90 percent in October, had fallen to 48.5 percent.

What about the southern insurgents? In the past two days the police have revealed that at three of the bomb-sites there was graffiti with the initials IRK. Some police believe that it stands for “Islamiyah Runda Kumpalan.” The media often writes about the Runda Kumpulan Kecil – though it is not an independent group, but rather cells within the BRN-C. The graffiti could simply be a plant. Another hypothesis is that Muslim “guns for hire,” affiliated with the Wadah faction of the Thai Rak Thai, were hired to do the job. That would allow the perpetrators to point the finger at the insurgents. But it is unlikely that it had anything to do with the insurgency in the south fro two primary reasons.

First, the insurgents are winning in the south. They do not need to go to Bangkok at this point; their tactics are working. An attack in Bangkok at this point would gain them little. Second, the bombs used in Bangkok were small and unsophisticated compared to what is used in the south on a daily basis. In a speech on Thursday to the acting parliament, the National Legislative Committee, Surayud all but cleared the southern insurgents: "Forensics tests found that the bombs were similar to those used in the south, but I can reassure you that they are not exactly the same. That is why we have concluded that the bombings had nothing to do with the south, and rather that the ill-intentioned perpetrators are in Bangkok.”

PULO, a separatist group that was active through the mid-1990s but has a vocal media presence, though no command and control over today’s insurgents, has thoroughly denied any involvement.

Douglas Farah to Assume CT Blog Co-Editor & CTF Director Positions

By Andrew Cochran

As a measure of the respect I have professionally and personally for Douglas Farah, which is seconded by each of the Contributing Experts, I've asked him to assume the position of Co-Editor of The Counterterrorism Blog. Moreover, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and I, in our positions as directors of the still-new Counterterrorism Foundation, have asked Doug to become the third director on the CTF board. Doug has agreed to both requests, with our sincere appreciation. Doug is highly respected in the CT community and the press for his numerous accomplishments over the past 20 years in covering Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa. He has concentrated his work over the past 7 years in uncovering the African diamonds-for-weapons trade and the story of al Qaeda's ties to those diamond and weapons networks. His book, Blood From Stones: The Secret Financial Network of Terror, is the premier book on the subject. You can read longer bios for Doug on our site and his own site.

Doug is one of the original Contributing Experts to CTB since we opened on January 5, 2005, and he is a source of wise counsel for all here. We're very pleased that Doug has agreed to assume both positions and welcome his continued valuable contributions.

Fostering Chaos: Iran, the Sunnis, and Iraq

By Aaron Mannes

Eli Lake, of the The New York Sun, reports that documents captured from Iranian operatives in Iraq indicate that Iran has been supporting Sunni jihadists in Iraq. There have been other hints of this support. Reports on the IEDs have noted obliquely that the highest quality explosives come from Iran, and Hezbollah has been deploying IEDs against Israel since the 1990s.

Considering the well-known Iranian support for the Shiite militias (including Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, Abd al-Aziz Hakim’s SCIRI, and al-Dawa) and the bloody sectarian fighting between Shia and Sunnis, Iranian support for Sunni jihadis seems counter-intuitive. While the veracity of the report is not yet certain, seen in the context for Iranian support for terrorism elsewhere, a Iranian link to the Sunni insurgency has precedent. Not only, has Iran been willing to support Sunnis, Iran has frequently taken complex, multi-pronged approaches in their support for terrorism. This is approach particularly evident in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where it has been highly effective in expanding Iranian influence.

Read the full blog here.

New Al-Zawahiri Tape: “Set Out to Support Your Brothers in Somalia”

By Andrew Cochran

Rita Katz's SITE Institute and Laura Mansfield have informed us that a new tape from Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri will be released soon on as-Sahab, titled, "Set Out to Support Your Brothers in Somalia.” The banner announcing the tape is below, courtesy of the SITE Institute.

Iran's Grande Schemes

By Douglas Farah

It appears that Iranian special Quds Forces are directly aiding Sunni _jihadist_ forces in Iraq, along with the Shi'ite militias, as reported here. But it is highly-calibrated assistance, not to the old regime's Baathist groups, but to individuals directly tied to al Qaeda.

This is in keeping with Iran's long-term strategic interest in seeing the U.S. forces come under the maximum strain, while maintaining leverage with a group that will likely be active in Iraq for years to come. It is not a new strategy for Iran. They are still harboring senior al Qaeda operatives for several years, and allowed safe passage to at least one wife and several children of Osama bin Laden as they fled Afghanistan in 2001.

The Quds Force, in particular, has protected al Qaeda operatives, as well as working extensively with Hezbollah and, at times Hamas (another Sunni group affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood). My full blog is here.

Beach Bank Case Highlights Laundering Risk of Phone Cards

By Jonathan Winer

Notable in FinCEN's announcement December 27, 2006 of an $800,000 civil money penalty against Beach Bank of Miami, Florida, is its listing as a significant money laundering compliance violation Beach Bank's failure to file a suspicious activity report on an unnamed telecommunications company that conducted in excess of $100 million in wire transfers over a two month period for phone card sales and related services.

Treasury and federal law enforcment agencies have been increasingly focused on the use of phone cards and other forms of stored value devices as potential vehicles for money laundering and for terrorist finance. But this case may represent the first enforcement action against a financial institution for failing to notice such a pattern.

Also of interest in the case is Treasury's focus on failure to report currency transactions involving money services businesses by Beach Bank, suggested continued emphasis by FinCEN on money transmitters as a mechanism of high risk of money laundering abuse, at least in a location with obvious vulnerabilities to such laundering like Miami.

Stored value and cash are both seen by federal officials as major ongoing vulnerabilities in the U.S. anti-money laundering and counter terrorist finance system, and Treasury appears to be continuing to consider possible rulemaking that could for the first time place express constraints on the uses of the former. In the meantime, it is helping to drive efforts in the Financial Action Task Force to address risks involving innovative payments systems, including phone cards and other forms of stored value, which could well become the subject of new FATF recommendations in the near future.

US Special forces chasing Al Qaeda terrorists in Somalia

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, according to Saudi daily Al Watan, US Special forces based in Djibouti have been instructed to look for Al Qaeda terrorists in the south of Somalia. Among them the most sought after terrorist is Al Qaeda chief in East Africa Abdallah Fadul, the mastermind behind the two 1998 bombings against US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salam and the attack on the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000. His two main lieutenants, a Sudanese and a Kenyan, are also actively chased.

Did Moqtada Al Sadr take part in the actual hanging of Saddam Hussein?

By Olivier Guitta

According to the Saudi daily Al Riyad, citing a witness to the execution of Hussein, one of the masked men was indeed Moqtada Al Sadr. Knowing that Saddam Hussein had Moqtada's father killed, this would not be surprising. In fact the son would want to take part in taking revenge. But if this turns out to be true, this would be another major faux pas for Iraqi authorities.

In fact Moqtada's militia has not only targeted coalition troops but also Sunnis, including mostly civilians. This event could further the gap between Sunnis and Shias around the world especially in Iraq, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Incidentally a famous Saudi ulema (high religious personality) Sheikh Abdelrahman Al Barak just issued a fatwa calling Shias "kuffars" (infidels) and Shiism "the worst religion". He added that Sunnism and Shiism are two irreconcilable religions". In light of rumors of Saudi involvement in helping their Sunni brothers in Iraq, these latest events should be taken quite seriously.

Links Between Terrorism, Drug Trade, and Illegal Immigration Can't Be Ignored

By Michael Cutler

Here is an article that was written several days ago by Sara Carter, this year's recipient of the Eugene Katz Award presented by the Center for Immigration Studies, the think tank with which I have been affiliated for the past several years. Sara is an excellent journalist and her article, that I have attached below is important for you to read. It makes it clear that our nation's failure to secure its borders and create an immigration system that possesses true integrity imperils nothing less than the security of our nation and the survival of our citizens. Sara saw fit to include a brief quote that I provided to her and indeed, what I said in that quote sums up the situation quite succinctly: "The bureaucrats don't understand what a dangerous game they are playing with American lives if they don't do something to fix the situation at the border."

There is another statement made in the article that is especially disturbing. Not surprisingly, this statement bears no attribution. Any government employee who would be willing to be quoted for having said it had better have a new job lined up: "Those interviewed by the Daily Bulletin say agencies including the FBI and CIA are not using information from Border Patrol and Drug Enforcement Administration agents to make connections between the drug trade, illegal immigration and terrorist organizations."

How anyone in either law enforcement or intelligence could not accept the simple fact that open borders facilitate the movement of criminals, drugs and terrorists into our country defies belief! Note these sentences from the article: "Evidence of 'special-interest aliens' using the Mexican border to gain entry to the United States has been kept secret from the American public, according to federal law enforcement agents, terrorism experts and critics of U.S. foreign policy with Mexico... According to DEA intelligence reports, the link between terrorism and narcotics has been well known since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in New York, Washington, D.C., and Pennsylvania. But federal agents say getting bureaucrats to understand the growing danger is difficult when most lawmakers won't even acknowledge many of the problems already happening along the U.S. border... A DEA official said terrorist incidents such as the Madrid train bombings in March 2004 would be easy to duplicate in the United States, with the Southwest border as the best place to smuggle in those who would carry out such a plot."

Yet, the President, members of his administration as well as a number of members of Congress (both sides of the aisle as well as in both the Senate as well as the House of Representatives) constantly spew utter foolishness about the need for a guest worker program that would provide official identity documents and legal status to millions of illegal aliens whose true identities are unknown and ultimately unknowable to our government. The debate rages about the need to build a fence along the border that separates the United States from Mexico and, in fact, I have been interviewed on a number of television programs about the need to construct the fence while so many other aspects of the immigration system are in utter disarray.

Three Years after the January 2004 Raids, the Insurgency in Southern Thailand Is Building Momentum

By Zachary Abuza

On 4 January 2004, a group of armed men raided a Thai army camp. The group had planned the attack well and knew exactly where the camp’s armory was. They were equipped with acetylene torches and bolt cutters; in all they made off with more than 300 M-16s, small arms, ammunition and other weaponry. It is the date most commonly used to start the current manifestation of the insurgency in Thailand’s restive south, dominated by Muslim Malays. In actuality the insurgency began several years earlier, in 2001, but at a low enough level to be considered routine criminality.

The government of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra blamed the insurgency on drug addicts and criminals. Only a year earlier, he had declared that the Malay insurgency had been defeated and transferred authority for the deep south from the Army to his former colleagues in the Royal Thai Police (RTP). He dissolved the two key institutions that were responsible for maintaining law and order, providing governance and dispute adjudication. The police, notoriously corrupt in Thailand, were ill-equipped to deal with the south, more concerned with consolidating their authority over smuggling and local crime rackets. The army withheld their human intelligence network hoping that the police would fail in their mission; eager to muscle back in when martial law was instated in early-2004.

Insurgency is not new to southern Thailand, but the post-WWII generation of insurgents had been defeated by the mid-1990s through a variety of means: effective uses of amnesties, development projects, security cooperation with Malaysia, good counterinsurgency tactics, and the country’s vast economic growth. But the unrecognized reason was that the insurgents were so woefully divided over ideology, goals, and tactics that they could never cooperate. The Thai’s could defeat one splinter group at a time. What Thai security officials concede now is that Islamists were disgusted with the insurgency’s demise, and retreated to the mosques and madrassas, where the insurgency incubated for a decade. In early-2004, the Thai security forces were caught with their pants down. They rounded up the usual suspects of the previous generation, unaware that the insurgency was primarily being run by two groups they never considered threats: the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinasi (BRN-C) and their youth wing Pemuda, and the Gerakan Mujihidin Islamiya Pattani (GMIP). The government’s missteps in early-2004 further alienated them from the community. The attack on the 14th century Krue Se Mosque in which 33 militants had retreated and the Tak Bai massacre in October 2004, in which 78 unarmed protestors died of asphyxiation in the back of army lorries, led to a rapid decline in cooperation from amongst the Muslim community and open hostility towards government forces. Thaksin’s bullhorn diplomacy and allegations led to bilateral relations with Malaysia spiraling out of control.

What is new about the current conflict is the level and degree of violence, the Islamist agenda of the insurgents, and their unprecedented degree of cooperation and coordination. To date no group has taken any credit for attacks, nor have they publicly stated their goals or platform. The situation is not improving, and now entering its fourth year, there is a question of whether the Thai government can salvage anything. Right now, they are losing the south and 2007 will be a critical year.

My entire analysis of the current situation is in the attached Acrobat file.

Somalia: The Next Step?

By Douglas Farah

Ethiopia's quick dispatch the Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia has opened the way for the next step, which is seldom any easier than the first: rebuilding shattered institutions while providing the security that brought the Courts the support that propelled the radical group to power in the first place.

The new government is in a very difficult position-beholden to a foreign power that will soon be resented as an occupying force, little leverage in negotiating with the different clans and warlords, and unknown in most of the country.

In addition, the new government faces the prospect of a prolonged conflict with the rump of the Islamist movement, and the strong possibility that the remnant will receive support from Islamist movements around the world, including al Qaeda. This group, now scattered, will be able to regroup, as the Taliban has, if the new government cannot or does not act decisively to meet the inflated expectations of a restless and anxious population.

One of the keys will be international support and recognition, with support clearly tied to the government's willingness to take the necessary steps to rebuild a nation that has been without a central government for 15 years. My full blog is here.

Securing the Homeland; GAO Recommends Areas for Increased Congressional Oversight in 2007

By Victor Comras

We got through 2006 without any new terrorist attack at home. But, most terrorism experts are convinced that 2007 remains fraught with danger. Internationally, terrorism continues to rage with no letup against US and allied assets and interests. And we have engaged the increasing wrath of terrorism supporting countries such as Iran and Syria. Al Qaeda cells and influence continue to spread, and there are increasing signs that Hizbollah and Hamas will target US facilities and interests. Homeland security, and combating terrorism and terrorism financing worldwide must, therefore, remain one of our greatest priorities and challenges this new year.

Looking ahead, my attention was drawn to a letter sent by Comptroller General David Walker to key Congressional leaders in November 2006 outlining his recommendations for needed increased congressional oversight during the next year. While the letter provides a cross-the-board assessment of key issues facing the 110th Congress, his recommendations concerning homeland security and combating terrorism are particularly poignant.

High among these oversight targets are: (1) the effective integration and transformation of the Department of Homeland Security, (2) ensuring a strategic and integrated approach to prepare for, respond to, recover, and rebuild from catastrophic events, (3) transforming and strengthening our national intelligence community, (4) enhancing border security, (5) ensuring the safety and security of all modes of transportation, (6) strengthening efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their delivery systems, (7) enhanced computer security, and (8) otherwise ensuring the effectiveness and coordination of U.S. international counterterrorism efforts. Further congressional oversight and action are also required, the Comptroller’s letter indicates, to improve the overall US image overseas.

Congress has passed much legislation focused on these priority areas and on improving U.S. efforts to combat terrorism here and overseas. “As such,” the Controller General writes, “the Congress has an important role to play in overseeing the implementation of these recommendations and in assessing the effectiveness and coordination of U.S. diplomatic, military, intelligence, and law enforcement efforts to combat terrorism {here and} abroad.”

Islamic Courts Abandon Kismayo, Establish "Shadow Governments"

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I spoke with a military intelligence officer this morning about the situation in Somalia. He reported that the radical Islamic Courts Union (ICU) has abandoned Kismayo and dispersed. Kismayo is one of Somalia's strategic port cities: after abandoning Kismayo, the ICU seemingly no longer controls any strategic cities. However, the group does control a sizeable geographic area, both in the north and south of the country. The ICU primarily controls smaller towns and villages.

My source reports that even in areas that the ICU controls, it is giving up active control and forming "shadow governments." The term "shadow government" refers to Mafia-style governance, similar to what Al Capone had in Chicago in the 1920s: in these areas the ICU doesn't have formal control, but is the real power. This mirrors the Taliban's position in much of northern Pakistan. The main advantage the ICU derives from moving to shadow government is that it doesn't have to actually govern: ICU representatives don't have to appear publicly and don't have to make any of the public works run. Instead, they can focus all their effort on insurgent campaigns -- which, all told, is easier than managing a fully-functioning government. Also, a functioning government has to exist in a place that can be targeted. A shadow government, in contrast, can just disperse and regroup.

There are also disadvantages to a shadow government. It's difficult for a shadow government to mass to control territory because once it does, it can be targeted. A second disadvantage is that the tools the shadow government uses to control the population are negative rather than positive. (For positive tools that the ICU used, remember how it managed to gain the support of Somalia's business community.) Instead of having anything positive to offer, the shadow government's position is that Somalis need to cooperate with it or they'll be killed. These negative tools of control run the risk of alienating the population. However, if the country slips back into chaos, these negative controls may actually be seen by the population as positive means to stability.

My source notes that in those areas where the ICU hasn't moved to shadow government, it's probably because of communication difficulties: ICU leaders in those areas probably aren't aware that they should do so.

Moreover, my source says that "the real battle" in Somalia will likely begin when Ethiopia begins to pull its troops back. Thus far, ICU forces have been melting away as the Ethiopians advance. This is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan. There is confirmation that the three suspects in the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings who were in Somalia escaped during the ICU's retreat. Some ICU members are trying to escape to Kenya, and have a good chance of succeeding because the Kenyan police are notoriously corrupt. ICU leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is nowhere to be seen. Ethiopians and U.S. intelligence reportedly put the number of ICU fighters killed in the thousands.

My source reports that as the ICU left Mogadishu, they opened the jails and gave the criminal population all the weapons that the ICU wasn't able to take with it. This action was designed to give the Ethiopians and transitional government more problems to take care of as they assume control of the city.

This would be a good time, my source says, for the African Union peacekeeping force that has often been discussed to be introduced to Somalia.