A Veritable Who Dunnit: Theories Swirl in Bangkok, Bombings Remain Unsolved

By Zachary Abuza

With no claims of responsibility for the eight New Year’s Eve bombings and two confirmed defused bombs, that killed 3 and wounded 42, Bangkok is awhirl with speculation and rumors. Here are the different hypotheses that attribute the bombings to the deposed prime minister, his government, the police, the military and southern separatists.

In a three-page hand written letter faxed to his lawyer on 2 January, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra denied any role in the bombing. He attributed it to southern insurgents, which is interesting because for the past three years he almost denied that there was an insurgency, laying the unrest on drug gangs, and by denying that there could ever be bombings in Bangkok. In his letter he asserts that he warned government officials that the insurgents “will go to Bangkok” if they are not stopped. It is unlikely that Thaksin had any direct involvement: though unhappy with the 19 September coup that ousted him from power, he wants to return to Thailand and he clearly doesn’t want to give the authorities to go after his family’s assets, especially the illiquid fixed real estate holdings.

Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) likewise and unsurprisingly denied any involvement. All eyes at first were on them. Thaksin was corrupt, but he was smart enough to spread his wealth widely and a lot of people made their fortunes because of him. The coup led to a lot of lost earnings potential.

On Thursday, the interim Minister of Defense, Boonrawd Somtas, revealed that the bombers “were in uniform,” without elaborating. Rogue members of the police have been suspected. Thaksin, himself a former police, favored his former colleagues. After the coup, the police stood to lose a lot and were unhappy with the proposed reforms that the army was going to begin to impose on them.

But rogue elements in the military could also be blamed: many hardliners in the army have expressed unhappiness that coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin had not gone far enough in consolidating military rule and was too quick to hand back power to a democratically-elected civilian government. While martial law is still in effect, troops in the capital and many provinces had been returned to the barracks; troops are again patrolling in the capital. The return to democracy has suffered another setback.

Others in the military were very concerned and frustrated that the legal avenues to investigate and seize Thaksin’s allegedly ill-gotten wealth have so far not born fruit. It was interesting that within three hours of the first bombings, The Nation website posted a statement by an un-named member of the Council on National Security (CNS) that they were considering seizing Thaksin’s assets so that he would not continue to destabilize the country. The government has given Thaksin’s wife, Potjaman Shinawatra, who remains in Thailand, and her step-brother 15 days to report to the Assets Scrutiny Committee to defend themselves against criminal charges of tax evasion dating to the 1997 transfer of shares of the family’s Shin Corp.

Sonthi for his part went on TV today to publicly deny any role in the bombings. Bangkok was awhirl yesterday that another putsch was in the works and interim Prime Minister was looking shaky. Surayud has begun to insinuate that the bombings were part of a larger plan to destabilize the regime. He glumly warned, “This probably won't be the last time we see incidents of this kind...For some time in the future, we must prepare our hearts and minds to face this new form of threat to people's lives.'' A public opinion poll released today, popular support for Surayud and his government, which was 90 percent in October, had fallen to 48.5 percent.

What about the southern insurgents? In the past two days the police have revealed that at three of the bomb-sites there was graffiti with the initials IRK. Some police believe that it stands for “Islamiyah Runda Kumpalan.” The media often writes about the Runda Kumpulan Kecil – though it is not an independent group, but rather cells within the BRN-C. The graffiti could simply be a plant. Another hypothesis is that Muslim “guns for hire,” affiliated with the Wadah faction of the Thai Rak Thai, were hired to do the job. That would allow the perpetrators to point the finger at the insurgents. But it is unlikely that it had anything to do with the insurgency in the south fro two primary reasons.

First, the insurgents are winning in the south. They do not need to go to Bangkok at this point; their tactics are working. An attack in Bangkok at this point would gain them little. Second, the bombs used in Bangkok were small and unsophisticated compared to what is used in the south on a daily basis. In a speech on Thursday to the acting parliament, the National Legislative Committee, Surayud all but cleared the southern insurgents: "Forensics tests found that the bombs were similar to those used in the south, but I can reassure you that they are not exactly the same. That is why we have concluded that the bombings had nothing to do with the south, and rather that the ill-intentioned perpetrators are in Bangkok.”

PULO, a separatist group that was active through the mid-1990s but has a vocal media presence, though no command and control over today’s insurgents, has thoroughly denied any involvement.

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