Opposition Demonstrations in Lebanon and the Paris III Conference

By David Schenker

Co-Editor's Note, Jan. 24: A longer version of David's post, titled "Lebanon Goes to Paris III: High Stakes in France and Beirut," is now available from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy website.

This morning in Lebanon, government opposition forces—Hizballah, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and their pro-Syrian allies—shut down key arteries in Lebanon, including roads into Beirut and the airport road, effectively closing the airport and paralyzing the country. Clashes with Lebanese security forces ensued, and according to reports, three people were killed and some 50 wounded. The striking images of tires burning and dump-trucks empting dirt onto Lebanese highways to block traffic were broadcast all day on LBC and Al Jazeera. At about 10 PM Lebanese time, the opposition ended the daylong “strike.”

The protest, a demonstration of opposition muscle-flexing, comes just two days before Prime Minister Fouad Siniora leaves for France to participate in Paris III, an international donors conference in which forty nations will pledge funds to rebuild the Lebanese economy. In turn, the Government of Lebanon will implement signifcant economic reforms. Lebanon is in urgent need of grant money to help defray the crushing interest payments on its nearly $41 billion in debt. Interest payments currently amount to over $3 billion a year.

Both Hizballah and the FPM led by General Michel Aoun, oppose Paris III and the proposed reforms. Hizballah, of course, left the cabinet in November 2006—demanding that the opposition be provided more cabinet seats and an effective veto over [Siniora] government initiatives. Aoun and Hizballah have since worked assiduously to compel the Siniora Government to form this “Government of National Unity.” In the absence of this unity government, the opposition is working to topple the Siniora.

The last thing Hizballah and Aoun want is for Siniora to have a “successful” conference in Paris. It would demonstrate that the March 14th Forces bloc, to which Siniora is aligned, is capable of governing effectively without Hizballah and Aoun. Opposition efforts to undercut Siniora have been ongoing since November 2006, but the Siniora Administration has hung tough. Today's demonstrations and violence represent a significant upping of the ante by the opposition, raising already extant sectarian tensions in Lebanon.

Of course, the success of Paris III is not a foregone conclusion. Expectations are high in Lebanon and if they are not met, Hizballah and the opposition may capitalize. If Paris III is perceived as a success, however, Siniora and the March 14th forces could regain some of the momentum they have lost in recent years.

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