Counterterrorism Blog

I have an article entitled "Blackhawk Up" in this week's print edition of The Weekly Standard. The piece focuses on the efforts of Somalia's transitional federal government to secure funding in the wake of the Islamic Courts Union's retreat. The article highlights a dispute between the Pentagon and State Department over how to dispense aid to the transitional government. An excerpt:

According to a senior U.S. military intelligence officer, the Pentagon and State Department are bickering about how to handle cash outlays to the transitional government. The Pentagon favors large cash transfers of the kind [transitional government permanent secretary in charge of international cooperation Dahir] Jibreel calls for, while State wants to provide aid in smaller chunks with tighter control on who receives the money. State's goal is to prevent corruption and mismanagement of funds while encouraging the transitional government to seek a broad-based coalition for governing Somalia, probably including putative moderates from the Islamic Courts Union.

The intelligence officer disagrees with this approach. "The government needs the money now," he said. "It'll do the most good right now. If you want to see the return of the Islamic Courts Union, this is the perfect recipe. The United States has been criticized for how it's acted in Somalia in the past. We can't repeat our past mistakes and allow the Islamic Courts Union to take power again."

The transitional government's financial shortfall has direct implications for the two greatest challenges it faces. The first is preventing an insurgency. The head of the Islamic Courts Union's executive council, Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed (who was captured during the past week), has called for a move to insurgent fighting.

There is reason to believe that the Islamic Courts Union may succeed in mounting an insurgency. A senior military intelligence officer told me that its forces' ability to "melt away" as Ethiopian troops advance is reminiscent of the Taliban's dispersal after Kandahar fell in Afghanistan. Also, a confidential report drafted by the U.N.'s Monitoring Group on Somalia in late 2006 warns that the Islamic Courts Union "is fully capable of turning Somalia into what is currently an Iraq-type scenario, replete with roadside and suicide bombers, assassinations, and other forms of terrorist and insurgent-type activities."

If an insurgency is to be prevented, the fact that the government's soldiers haven't been paid is of utmost concern. Jibreel worries that these troops "could walk away in despair."

The full article can be found here. For more on the transitional government's needs, see Eli Lake's recent article in the New York Sun.