Somalia: The Next Step?
By Douglas Farah
Ethiopia's quick dispatch the Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia has opened the way for the next step, which is seldom any easier than the first: rebuilding shattered institutions while providing the security that brought the Courts the support that propelled the radical group to power in the first place.
The new government is in a very difficult position-beholden to a foreign power that will soon be resented as an occupying force, little leverage in negotiating with the different clans and warlords, and unknown in most of the country.
In addition, the new government faces the prospect of a prolonged conflict with the rump of the Islamist movement, and the strong possibility that the remnant will receive support from Islamist movements around the world, including al Qaeda. This group, now scattered, will be able to regroup, as the Taliban has, if the new government cannot or does not act decisively to meet the inflated expectations of a restless and anxious population.
One of the keys will be international support and recognition, with support clearly tied to the government's willingness to take the necessary steps to rebuild a nation that has been without a central government for 15 years. My full blog is here.