Somalia - Still on the Brink and Without Sufficient U.S. Support

By Andrew Cochran

A Senate hearing yesterday disclosed the fragile state of affairs in Somalia, and news today of multiple arrests of suspected terrorists (stories here and here) indicates that Islamists there are back on the offensive. Ethiopian troops may have dislodged the Union of Islamic Courts from the seat of power in Mogadishu, but they did not provide lasting security, and the African Union looks unlikely to backfill with sufficient force and moral authority. Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, a leader in the Islamic Courts now in Kenyan custody, will reportedly travel to Europe to meet with Somali communities and pave the way for a reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, a step encouraged and backed by the U.S.

At the hearing, Dr. J. Stephen Morrison of the Center for Strategic & International Studies discussed the findings of a conference on Somalia in Washington several weeks ago sponsored by CSIS, the U.S. Institute for Peace, and the Council on Foreign Relations. To summarize, Dr. Morrison reported that U.S. policy towards Somalia can still be characterized as "too little and almost too late" - specifically, "It continues to lack a clear vision backed by a functioning interagency process that bridges the United States’ ‘hard’ counter-terrorism equities with its ‘soft’ power interests in promoting a negotiated, broadened compact for governing Somalia, meeting dire humanitarian needs, and beginning reconstruction efforts."

Doug Farah and Daveed Gartenstein-Ross have posted often here on the initial promise offered by the Ethiopian incursion and the subsequent disappointing follow-up by the U.S. Daveed sent me a quote for this post about continuing conflicts among U.S. government policymakers: "Defense has favored dispersing a larger amount of aid to the TFG to get the government up and running, while State wants to disperse money slowly to gain maximum influence over the TFG. The problem is that this government needs resources. Its civil servants and soldiers aren't getting paid. A weak TFG paves the way for the ICU's return. It's astonishing, and sad, that apparently our government has put so little thought into how to stabilize our ally in Somalia." Previous posts by Daveed and Doug include:

Doug Farah:
"The Closing Window in Somalia"
"The Strategy on Somalia"

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross:
"Blackhawk Up"
"Will the U.S. Win in Somalia?"

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