Trends in Thailand's Insurgency in Early 2007

By Zachary Abuza

Wednesday morning saw an audacious bombing that appeared to target the beloved Crown Princess of Thailand, Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, who is visiting Thailand’s restive southern provinces. The bomb was placed near her helicopter’s landing pad. A security patrol that was sweeping the area, discovered the cell-phone detonated IED. The bomb was not a large one, compared to what has been detonated recently. Detonated in a controlled manner, it created a crater a yard in diameter and 12 inches deep.

While Bangkok is still abuzz over whodunit over the New Year’s Eve bombings, the southern insurgency continues to escalate. The level of killing has gone up to over two people a day, minor by Iraqi standards, but still the most lethal conflict in Southeast Asia, bar none; and it has the potential to grow dramatically in 2007.

It is not necessary to detail all the daily pillion killings and bombings, but it is worth recounting some of the more significant acts violence in 2007. The Minister of Defence, Boonrod Somthat glumly noted that the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinasi (BRN-C) "has refused negotiations so far as it is gaining the upper hand and winning greater support from local residents."

• There have already been two beheadings. On 31 January, an ice cream vendor was shot dead and beheaded by Muslim insurgents. "They chopped his head off and walked away with it, leaving his body sitting on the ice cream bike's seat," a Pattani policeman told Reuters. When a rubber tapper was beheaded police found a note that threatened to kill Buddhists if they remained in the province.

• While the number of bombings hasn’t increased, the number of large (10-15kg) bombs has increased. They are occurring several times a week, rather than once or twice a month. As a result, more people are being killed and wounded. On 12 January, a 15kg bomb wounded three soldiers. On 17 January, two officers who were investigating a burning tire placed on a railroad track were wounded when a 15kg bomb was detonated; the track was damaged resulting in the temporary suspension of train service. On 29 January, ten police were injured when a 15kg+ IED buried in the middle of the road was detonated as their convoy escorting teachers passed by. This bomb was command detonated, rather than cell-phone detonated. Another IED, fashioned out of an anti-tank mine, wounded 10 army officers. On 4 February, ten more soldiers were injured by mobile phone triggered roadside bomb blasts in Narathiwat and Pattani provinces.


• Some attacks have been more creative. On 12 January, insurgents placed a bomb under a soldier’s pickup truck and detonated it at the main gate of his base, which is home to the Southern Border Provinces Peace-building Command.

• On 27 January, insurgents detonated a 4kg bomb that was hidden on the roof of a one-story house some 15 minutes after the Minister of Interior and the Islamic Affairs Ministers from Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia passed en route to a graduation ceremony of the government-supported Islamic College of Prince Songkhla University. Though the school also gets funding from Qatar, southern insurgents are infuriated that the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) has been not only muted in its criticism of the Thai government’s handling of the insurgency, but that they continue to work with the Thai state.

• Insurgents have also demonstrated greater proficiency with small arms. In mid-January several bombers engaged soldiers in a five-minute firefight after detonating an IED. The insurgents are more confident and are standing their ground longer. On 31 January, a sniper shot a police colonel in the head, severely wounding him. The colonel was part of an advance team that was securing a village in preparation for the Prime Minister and Crown Prince’s visit.

• It should be noted that the majority of the targets, especially of drive by shootings, remain fellow Muslims, deemed to be collaborators. On 2 January a prominent local Muslim leader known for his outspoken stance against extremism was gunned down. The insurgents are not countenancing political rivals.

• 2007 has also seen an escalation in the number of civil disobedience cases, in particular those of women and children who surround police stations demanding the release of suspects. There have been three high profile cases in 2007. For example, some 50 veiled women surrounded a police station in Pattani’s Nong Chik district to demand the release of Mayadee Samah, a suspected insurgent arrested the day before. Also in Pattani, some 200 villagers sieged and vandalized a police station to protest the arrest of a suspected militant.
 Most recently, more than 70 Muslim women and children staged protest.

• Teachers, who have been routinely targeted by insurgents announced that they had no confidence in the government's security plans to protect them. The region is bracing for another wave of school closures. The government announced that Border Patrol Police may fill the vacancies.

There are a number of developments on the part of government’s counter-insurgent efforts that also deserve noting, some positive and some negative:

• The government has announced that it will stand up 30 paramilitary companies comprised of locals. Defense Minister Boonrod stated, "These Rangers have been trained in guerrilla warfare. They will be able to put up a good fight against the enemies," yet these units have just been formed and it is hard to believe that they have received anything more than a quick crash course. Their discipline is already in question.

• While the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC) was revived in early January, none of the participating ministries has sent their “A Team” to staff it. The SBPAC remains understaffed and under-funded.

• On 9 January, a Bangkok court released on bail nine Islamic clerics suspected of being part of the insurgency. The 4th Army’s commander, Major General Viroj Buacharoon, who is in charge of the south, had requested their release in the hope that it would garner popular support for the government. It also reflects the fact that the Thai police continue to do such shoddy work in the south that almost no convictions have been won in the courts and that prosecutors are reluctant to bring cases before the courts, preferring suspects to languish in jail.

• A February meeting between Thai Interior permanent secretary Pongpayom Wasaphuti and Malaysian secretary-general of the Home Affairs Ministry Aseh Che Mat, resulted in an agreement to try to reconcile the ID card data bases of the two governments in order to crack down on dual nationals. The two sides agreed to exchange names, photos and fingerprints. The Thai government has already begun to issue fingerprint-embedded "smart" ID cards to 1.2 million residents of the three Muslim-majority provinces.

• The government pledged, Bt1.4 billion for security and development in the conflict-affected south, including Bt400 million for local development projects (Bt100 million for Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat, and Bt50 million for Satun and Songkhla. The budget also includes Bt972 million to increase CCTV coverage.

• While the Ministry of Defense’s budget for 2007 is Bt115 billion, nearly a 50 percent increase over fiscal 2006, they seem no closer to resolving the conflict.

• Defense Minister Boonrod Somthat has publicly stated that the security situation should improve dramatically by June. Yet, he conceded that the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinasi (BRN-C), who did not participate in any of the peace talks with the government in 2006, but who are responsible for much of the violence "has refused negotiations so far as it is gaining the upper hand and winning greater support from local residents."

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