More Small Steps on Viktor Bout

By Douglas Farah

Today the U.S. Treasury Department took another step to crimp the style of Russian weapons trafficker Viktor Bout.

The OFAC freezing action of seven companies and three individuals in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) followed yesterday's similar action by the United Nations Security Council and is aimed in part and restricting Bout's ability to continue to illicitly move weapons to African war zones.

The OFAC statement said that "Three of the designated firms have been found to be owned or controlled by, or acting for or on behalf of, Viktor Bout, an international arms dealer and war profiteer... This designation continues OFAC's efforts to disrupt the involvement of the Bout network, one of the largest illicit arms-trafficking networks in the world, in conflicts in the DRC and elsewhere."

OFAC has previously publicly noted Bout's role in supplying the Taliban and his support of Liberian warlord Charles Taylor. A small plug-I, along with my co-author Steve Braun, have a book on Bout and the weapons trade coming out in August, titled "Merchant of Death." My full blog is here.

Border Insecurity As America Faces WMD Terror

By Bill West

A few days ago, a rickety wooden sailboat overloaded with some 100 illegal Haitians penetrated our nation's coastal defenses in south Florida. The Haitians made landfall just north of Miami near a fire station along the beach and, thanks to observant citizens, authorities did manage to capture what were by then compliant but dehydrated and voyage weary wannabe refugees, one of whom unfortunately died in the effort to reach American shores. This is yet another sad chapter in the ongoing sad saga of the poor and porous border security we have in the United States. If 100+ hapless Haitian refugees on a decrepit wooden sailboat can evade detection by the best efforts of the US military and law enforcement to secure our borders from such intrusion, can we truly expect that a sophisticated and well funded terrorist organization, or hostile foreign intelligence service, will have any trouble penetrating those border defenses?

My Congressional Testimony at Ellis Island on Future of Immigration

By Michael Cutler

I testified today before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, Refugees, Border Security, and International Law on the subject, "Past, Present, and Future: A Historic and Personal Reflection on American Immigration." The hearing was held at Ellis Island, through which my mother first set foot on American soil a few short years before my grandmother and millions of others died in the Holocaust. Here is a segment of my testimony, and you can read all of it here in a file.

"Ellis Island was a facility that provided immigration inspectors, public health officials and others the opportunity to screen those aliens who were seeking to enter the United States to enjoy a far better way of life than was possible in their native countries. Simply arriving here was no guarantee of being admitted to the United States. Ellis Island was, in effect, America’s waiting room. If there was a doubt that the arriving alien might harbor a dangerous communicable disease, that person was kept here as long as necessary, until public health officials could determine if that applicant for admission posed a health risk to our citizens. Similarly, Ellis Island provided law enforcement officials with adequate time to identify those who might be fleeing criminal prosecution in their homelands. In those days there were no computers that could assist with this vital issue.

Today when aliens run our nation’s borders without being inspected, the potential exists that these aliens may carry diseases. These aliens may be fugitives from justice in their home countries who have extensive criminal backgrounds. In this perilous era, the potential also exists that these aliens may be involved directly or indirectly with terrorism. This is not a matter of xenophobia; it is a matter of commonsense. Our nation needs to know who is entering or seeking to enter our country. At present it has been estimated that there are from 12 million to twenty million illegal aliens in our country whose true identities are unknown and ultimately unknowable. Because they are undocumented, we can not be certain of when they entered the United States and in fact, we cannot even be certain as to their true nationalities. The President has called for legalizing illegal aliens which would require our beleaguered adjudications officers at USCIS to suddenly have to confront many millions of applications for amnesty filed by aliens whose identities can not be verified. I fear that terrorists and criminals would seize this opportunity to acquire official identity documents in fictitious names in conjunction with such a guest worker amnesty program and use those documents as breeder documents to create new identities for themselves, obtaining driver’s licenses, Social Security cards and other such documents. They could then use these officially issued documents to embed themselves in our country and also circumvent the various terror watch lists and so-called no fly lists."

Michael Jacobson in the Baltimore Sun: Keep terror-fighting tools, but explain them better

By Matthew Levitt

Michael Jacobson's latest op-ed about the FBI's counterterror tools and the Patriot Act appeared in today's Baltimore Sun.

From the Baltimore Sun
Keep terror-fighting tools, but explain them better

By Michael Jacobson

March 30, 2007

In response to recent revelations about the FBI's misuse of national security letters - administrative subpoenas issued by the FBI without having to go through a judge, a longtime FBI tool enhanced by the Patriot Act - some members of Congress are threatening to scale back the FBI's authority to issue such letters. These damaging reports have also sparked broader calls for a re-examination of other Patriot Act tools. FBI officials have acknowledged that there were significant problems and have pledged to impose tighter controls to ensure national security letters are used appropriately and their use is adequately tracked.

Although the FBI's response is reassuring and necessary, this will address only one part of the problem. The other issue driving reaction by Congress and the public is that neither has a good understanding of how these tools are used and why they are so valuable. As a result, when there are reports of abuse, Congress and the public are unable to put this in any type of broader context. The FBI is running the risk that Congress - feeling pressure to restrict the FBI's reach - may end up revoking one of its most desperately needed powers.

Morocco Under Fire

By Olivier Guitta

I just wrote a piece for The Weekly Standard on the explosive situation in Morocco.

Here is an excerpt:

On March 11, three years to the day after the Madrid bombings, a cybercafe in Casablanca was hit. Two terrorists carrying explosive belts entered the cybercafe to surf the web. They were trying to connect to a terrorism-related site, and the manager wanted to prevent them from doing so. When he approached one of the two terrorists, the suicide bomber decided to activate his bomb, killing himself and injuring four. His accomplice fled but was later arrested by Moroccan police. The most credible explanation is that the two terrorists wanted to consult the website in order to receive their orders for an attack against some other target, most likely the police headquarters or some Western interests. But there's no doubt now: Morocco is under attack.

In their new book "Quand le Maroc sera islamiste" (When Morocco will be Islamist), journalists Nicolas Beau and Catherine Graciet paint a very bleak albeit realistic picture of the Kingdom. Indeed, one of the top French anti-terrorism officials, cited by Beau and Graciet, recently stated that Morocco is by far the most worrying country in North Africa. The official's comparison: "today, Morocco is 1916 Russia." Also, according to Spanish anti-terror judge Baltazar Garzon: "Morocco is the worst terrorist threat for Europe." He estimated that the al Qaeda-linked cells number more than 100 and that at least 1,000 terrorists are now being actively sought by Moroccan authorities.

To read the rest, please click here.

Bangladesh Executes JMB Militants Ahead of Schedule

By Animesh Roul

After months of speculation, Bangladesh authority has reportedly executed six Jama’atul Mujaheedin Bangladesh (JMB) militants in the early hours of March 30 (Friday). The six militants - Shaikh Abdur Rahman, Siddiqul Islam, Abdul Awal, Khaled Saifullah, Ataur Rahman Sunny and Iftekhar Hasan Al-Mamun were executed in four separate prisons in Bangladesh.

One of the convicted militants, Asadul Islam alias Arif, is still at large.

While Siddiqul Islam (notorious as Bangla Bhai) and Abdul Awal were reportedly executed at Mymensingh Central Jail, Shaikh Abdur Rahman and Khaled Siafullah were executed at Comilla district jail and at Pabna jail respectively. The other two, Ataur Rahman Sunny and Iftekhar Hasan Mamun executed at Kashimpur jail. (The Daily Star, March 30, 2007.)

They were sentenced to death for their role in the November 2005 suicide attack on two judges in Jhalakathi.

As per the Prison rule, the jail authority has to reschedule the date of execution within 21- 28 days of the receipt of the rejection of mercy petition letter from Presidential office. Not surprisingly, the execution took place well ahead of the (circulated) scheduled time to deceive militants who have been planning major attacks on jails to ensure the release of the jailed terror kingpins. The role of media in this regard was immense as they circulated probable dates to mislead JMB operatives.

What's going on in Syria?

By Olivier Guitta

Syria is at the crossroads. A perfect storm is gathering above Damascus.
For proof from The Croissant come 2 interesting stories from usually well-informed Kuwaiti Al Seyassah :

1- Syria’s plan to avoid indictment for Hariri’s assassination

There is an opportunity for Syria to execute Ghazalé [Who is Rustom Ghazalé? Was the Syrian ruler of Lebanon from 2002 to 2005. Is allegedly implicated in the assassination of Rafic Hariri, on Damascus’ order] and thus stop the international investigation in the assassination of Rafic Hariri.

The Arab press has been talking for the past few days about a solution “a la Lockerbie,” i.e. as Colonel Kadhafi did after a 10 year embargo on Libya: Damascus sacrifices officers having served in Lebanon, in order to escape the International Court.

To read the rest, please click here.

2-The Shiite Iranian Revolution comes to Syria

Bashar Al Assad fears for the stability of his regime. Therefore he replaced his close guards and the presidential guard by Iranian elements of Pasdarans [Revolutionary Guards], trusted and faithful Hezbollah men.

More than 100,000 Iranians settled in Syria during the last 4 years with the complicity of the Alawite minority [sect of the Assad family]. They are mercenaries; they work for the regime.

For the rest, please click here.

Saudi Money Funding Islamists' Recent Efforts in Kurdish Iraq & Bangladesh

By Andrew Cochran

As a follow-up to Douglas Farah's post today on the move by the Saudi royals away from the U.S., I can add news provided today by British journalist James Brandon at a Jamestown Foundation forum. Brandon's recent travels through Kurdish Iraq exposed him to new Islamist TV stations in the region, funded according to him by money from Saudi Arabia, with most of it by foundations there. The stations spew the typical Wahabi propaganda in favor of strict sharia and sexual segregation and against the U.S., Israel, and Western-style democracy. The stations are trying to pull Kurds away from moderate Islamic parties in the region.

This comes on top of Animesh Roul's March 21 post, in which he reported disclosures by a top ranking military commander of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Mostafizur Rahman Shahin, that the money for about 5,000 JMB operatives in there "comes from Bangladeshi expatriates settled in foreign countries, including the United States and Saudi Arabia."

Reminds me of one of Doug's posts last month titled, "The More Things Change..."

U.N. Still Not Acting to Protect Human Rights of British Hostages (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE, 6:13 pm ET: In a press statement, which is the weakest form of statement possible, the Security Council has expressed "grave concern" for the hostages and called for an early resolution of the problem, including the hostages' release. The Council also appealed to the Iranian Government to allow consular access to the hostages, something I called for the U.N. to do two days ago (see U.N. press release). But a British attempt at a stronger statement calling for their immediate freedom failed, apparently due to Russian opposition. The AP story on the UN press statement also refers to Turkish efforts (unsuccessful so far) to meet with the hostages and mediate the crisis, as I reported here yesterday.
-------------------
Two days ago I posted on the silence of the U.N. to that point on the British hostages held by Iran. Now the U.N. has issued a statement on a discussion between Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Motaki about the hostages (and Iran's nuclear issue), saying that Ki-moon “expressed his wish to see an early resolution.” WOW, that's really going out on a limb in support of human rights for prisoners! The Secretary-General should have asserted that international law mandates that (a) the Iranians allow the hostages to see representatives of the British government, and (2) the Iranians cease their illegal taping of humiliations and obviously forced "confessions" of the hostages.

But the Secretary-General isn't the only U.N. official to ignore the hostages' human rights; he's just following a hypocritical pattern set long ago by U.N. human rights "experts" who have slammed numerous countries, including the U.S. and Israel, for so-called "abuses," but are next to useless when it comes to state sponsors of terrorism. Here are links to relevant press releases by Ki-moon and the "experts" about other countries:

Myanmar: UN human rights expert calls for release of prize-winning journalist and poet

Zimbabwe: Ban Ki-moon condemns reported police beating of opposition leaders

UN expert to visit US to discuss respect for human rights in war on terrorism

UN human rights expert reports on ‘appalling’ conditions for ordinary Palestinians

UPDATE: Victor Comras reminds me of a draft UN General Assembly Resolution against Hostage Taking which was approved by the General Assembly's Third Committee (Social, Humanitarian and Cultural) in November 2006. The resolution is still awaiting adoption by the full General Assembly. "By the terms of the draft, the General Assembly would reaffirm that hostage-taking was a serious and unjustifiable crime aimed at destroying human rights, and would condemn all acts of hostage-taking, anywhere in the world. It would demand that all hostages be released immediately and unconditionally."

Saudis Edging Away from the United States in Counterterror Efforts

By Douglas Farah

Ties are seriously fraying between the Saudi royals and the Bush administration, largely because the Saudis appear to have abandoned any pretext of confronting terrorism and instead have returned full bore to the long-held tradition of co-opting or buying opponents.

One would hope, albeit in vain, that recent developments would end the happy talk of our Saudi allies in fighting Islamist terrorism and terrorist ideologies and theologies.

As the Washington Post's Jim Hoagland noted, the most obvious sign of the change of heart, which many of us argued was at best skin deep, was King Abdullah's decision to cancel his scheduled April 17 state dinner. Explanations have been vague as to why.

Then yesterday the king lashed out at the U.S. occupation of Iraq, for the first time calling it "illegitimate." While there are many who believe that to be true, the timing of the statement, after several years of saying nothing nearly as strong, is indicative of the change. It is also noteworthy that the king chose to make the attack at a meeting of Arab heads of state, not just to his own people or in a lesser forum, but in forum that would garner the maximum media exposure. My full blog is here.

Interviews with Karim al-Mejjati and Participant in Abqaiq Refinery Attack

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in the Arabian Peninsula (Saudi Arabia) has recently released the first new issue of its official magazine, Sawt al-Jihad ("Voice of Jihad"), in nearly two years. Among other articles, the magazine contains lengthy interviews with Badr al-Humaydi (one of the Al-Qaida operatives who participated in last year's terrorist attack on the Abqaiq oil refinery in eastern Saudi Arabia) and Karim al-Mejjati (a.k.a. Abu Elyas al-Maghrebi), a most wanted Moroccan Al-Qaida commander who was killed in a clash with Saudi security forces in April 2005. During the interview conducted shortly prior to his death, al-Mejjati discusses at great length his experiences fighting with mujahideen in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and salutes various military commanders from Afghanistan whom he credits as being his chief instructors--including Ibn Shaykh al-Liby, Abu Zubaydah al-Falastini, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and the current leader of Al-Qaida's ground forces in southern Afghanistan Abu Laith al-Liby.

Click to view Sawt al-Jihad #30 - "Interview with Badr al-Humaydi"
Click to view Sawt al-Jihad #30 - "Interview with Karim al-Mejjati"

See also:
- Al-Qaida in Saudi: "Bin Laden and the Oil Weapon"
- Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia Issues Rules on Attacking Oil Facilities (February 2006)
- Al-Qaida claims Abqaiq (Buqayq) operation by "Brigade of Shaykh Usama Bin Laden" (February 2006)
- Al-Qaida names Abqaiq "martyrs" from the "Bin Laden Brigade" (February 2006)
- Al-Qaida statement on recent events in Saudi Arabia (July 2006)
- [NEFA Foundation]: "Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia: 2002-2003"

Iran Refusing Offers to Mediate Hostage Crisis

By Andrew Cochran

Highly reliable sources report that officials in the government of a Scandinavian country have offered to mediate the Iran hostage crisis, but the offers have been refused thus far by the Iranians. Also, a well-placed journalist in Washington and a knowledgeable source in Istanbul cannot confirm press reports of a possible meeting between Turkish officials and the British hostages.

The Turkish government is trying at every level to persuade the Iranians to release the hostages. Turkish military officials are petrified that they will be dragged, kicking and screaming, into a military fight on the US/UK side because of their NATO obligations, which could be triggered by this act of war.

You can see the British Royal Navy's description of the H.M.S. Cornwall, and you can read the official British Ministry of Defense statement with charts of the Cornwall's position in Iraqi waters and the Iranians' position.

Preventing Bio-terror Threat: India Moves A Step Ahead Cautiously

By Animesh Roul

Of late, Indian government wakes up to biological weapon related threats and approves a model of standard operating procedures (SOPs) to thwart any bio-terror attacks. Although the discourse on public health and infectious disease gained ground in the region especially after series of epidemic outbreaks in the region and received a boost following the Anthrax letter incidents in the US in late 2001, New Delhi took ample time to initiate something substantial on the ground.

As per the report published in Financial Express (March 28, 2007), a high-level meeting of the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) headed by the cabinet secretary BK Chaturvedi gave a go ahead to the SOPs, endorsing the recommendation that a mechanism must be in place at the earliest to deal with any terror event involving biological pathogen.

The crux of the story goes like this:

The SOP model to be implemented initially in New Delhi under the auspices of the Union Home Ministry. Then it would be replicated in other vital cities subsequently. The report also says that at least four battalions of central paramilitary forces, which will function as the national disaster response force (NDRF), are currently being trained and equipped to respond to nuclear, radiological and biological emergencies. The MHA will lay down the command, control and preparedness measures and post-attack response mechanism. The National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS) in consultation with Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) and secretary, security MHA would constitute a team to do the groundwork, while IB and RAW will finance the initiative. The Ministry of Health is also a part of the initiative, with its role essentially to identify appropriate laboratories, development of appropriate protocol for validation or certification, strategy for procuring, producing and stockpiling of the necessary vaccines and drugs, contamination testing at source of water supply and formulation of effective Rapid Response Teams (RRTs) at the district level.

Al Qaeda in The Maghreb: a reality to reckon

By Olivier Guitta

I have been reporting on the emergence of an Al Qaeda branch in the Maghreb since November 2005.
It seems now that it's becoming a reality more and more each day.
The Croissant summarized and translated this article from the Lebanese L'Orient le Jour:

An Islamist Maghrebi “terrorist arc” threatens Europe

Just a few months ago, the Algerian terrorist group Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) became Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQITM)

According to French antiterrorist judge Jean-Louis Bruguière:
· The name AQITM is a clear signal of the ex-GSPC’s expansion in the region
· The ex-GSPC wants to integrate all the Maghrebi radical movements: the Libyan GICL, the Moroccan GICM and the Tunisian GICT
· This forms an “islamist arc”
· AQITM also has expansion plans in the Sahel
· This new development is a major source of concern for France and a direct threat to the country

In Algeria, AQITM recently attacked international targets:
· On December 10: a bus transporting employees of the US company Halliburton was attacked (1 killed, 8 wounded)
· On March 3: vehicles transporting 21 Russian workers were bombed (4 killed, including 1 Russian)

for the rest please click here.

Italy: the strange Islamist/Communist alliance

By Lorenzo Vidino

In June 2005 David Kaplan reported on US News about Ten Euros for the Resistance/Iraq Libero, a campaign led by an odd collection of European (mostly Italian, German and Austrian) “Marxists and Maoists, sprinkled with an array of Arab emigres and aging, old-school fascists,” to raise money for the “Iraqi resistance.” While never raising big sums, the informal network was active in organizing meetings and setting up stands in various European cities. The story generated quite a bit of attention and in the following weeks 44 members of Congress sent a letter to Italy's ambassador to the United States, expressing "concern" about the Ten Euros campaign. Moreover the network’s main website was shut down and a few addresses in Italy were raided.

Almost two years later, the Iraq Libero network is more than active and last weekend it organized a conference in Chianciano, a charming Tuscan town. The main organizers are the Committees for the Support of the Resistance for Communism (CARC), whose website shows various anti-American initiatives. In the communiqué announcing the Chianciano conference, the CARC express “our determination to support, with the resources at our disposal, the resistance of the popular masses in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and Lebanon against the aggressions of the imperialists of the USA and of any other country.”

Among the speakers in Chianciano, beside self-proclaimed leaders of the Iraqi resistance, we find Hamza Piccardo, the Secretary General of the UCOII (Unione delle Comunità e Organizzazioni Islamiche in Italia), the Italian branch of the international Muslim Brotherhood network. Addressing an audience filled with Communist militants, Piccardo gave a powerful and telling speech. “The young Muslims of Europe,” said the 55-year-old UCOII leader in a speech broadcasted by Italian TV, “can be companions of street and of struggle and we saw it in a remarkable way in France, two years ago. Those that set on fire 36.000 cars in a few days. This is a strength that immigrant communities have in them, their demographic strength, their courage. With this strength, with these youths, we must interact. Anti-Imperialism is in them.”

Piccardo’s speech seems that of a Communist leader, rather than that of the leader of one of Italy’s most important Muslim organization. An explanation can be found in Piccardo’s past involvement in the militant Communist underworld. Before his conversion to Islam in 1975, Piccardo had been a member of Autonomia Operaia, one of Italy’s most radical leftist formations during the 1970s. Piccardo, like other UCOII members that come from the radical left, dreams of a fusion of Communist and Islamist ideologies, with anti-capitalism, anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism as the glues for this odd marriage. The UCOII case is not an isolated example of the alliance between far left and radical Islam in Europe. Another notorious example is Respect, the unlikely political formation borne out of the alliance between the Brotherhood-linked Muslim Association of Britain (MAB) and fringe leftist groups headed by George Galloway. The phenomenon needs to be monitored, as the repercussions for both the security and the social cohesion of Europe can be serious.

Ongoing Counter-terrorism Raids in Indonesia

By Kenneth Conboy

The Indonesian police are on a roll with continued raids against suspected militants in East Java earlier this week--and more expected over the coming days. Readers will recall that the police counter-terrorist unit, Detachment 88, conducted an initial raid on 19 March (local time) against a Jemaah Islamiyah safe house in Jogjakarta. Although a senior JI member apparently escaped, seven of his colleagues were detained, and all subsequent raids have been a result of information they revealed during interrogations.

On 21 March, two separate follow-on operations in Central Java resulted in the discovery of a major explosives/arms cache, along with the arrest of a militant who had been linked to communal violence in the province of Central Sulawesi.

On 26 March, raids in Surabaya, East Java, resulted in the discovery of another cache in Indonesia's second largest city, this with more than 12 kilos of explosive.

Several officials have stated that the explosives and weaponry appear to have been destined for Central Sulawesi, where JI has been trying (with minimal success) to re-ignite a jihad as of late. There is as yet no clear evidence that JI was preparing to use the material for an operation against foreign nationals in Jakarta or Bali.

Understanding and Simplifying Terrorist Financing

By Dennis Lormel

In the most basic sense, terrorist groups require funding to achieve their goals. They must have effective financial infrastructures to include:

• Sources of funds
• The means to launder funds
• The availability of funding

This is a pretty simple concept. If only the detection, disruption or prevention of this process could be as simple. In reality, dealing with terrorist financing is extremely challenging. Terrorist financiers have had many years to quietly hone their skills and perfect their methodologies. It wasn’t until 9/11, that law enforcement, the regulators, intelligence agencies or the financial sector focused specifically on terrorist financing. In essence, this enabled terrorists to develop mechanisms and infrastructures, both legal and illegal, which have become well insulated and adept at avoiding detection.

U.N. Should Demand Immediate Access to the British Hostages in Iran

By Andrew Cochran

Yesterday, the U.N.'s Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General was asked whether the Secretary General had any statement to make about the British hostages held in Iran, and the spokesman said there is no comment. When a reporter then asked if the lack of comment should be interpreted as “he does not wish to comment because of delicate ongoing negotiations,” the Deputy Spokesperson agreed with that characterization. Following on the heels of a historically weak sanctions resolution (see Victor Comras' post on Sunday), the lack of action or statements to date is not encouraging. Victor suggests that we wait for the British to come to the U.N., which he assumes will happen within a very few days if Iran doesn't release the hostages. He noted to me that British Ambassador Jones-Parry made no comment about the seizure in his statement in the Security Council after the Iran sanctions vote, and Jones-Parry devoted his remarks solely to the sanctions resolution and the need to get Iran to respect IAEA norms. Fair enough.

But even if the Iranian seizure were legal under international law, the lack of access by British embassy officials to the hostages is not. That issue should be the subject of an immediate statement by the new U.N. Secretary-General during this, the first international crisis which started on his watch. After all, another spokesperson said today that the U.N. has asked the Saudi government to grant a visa to all reporters traveling with the Secretary-General, including a French-Israeli journalist whose visa has been denied thus far (which says a lot about the Saudis' continued intolerance of all things Israeli). The Secretary-General could have addressed the lack of access in an off-the-cuff press conference after a meeting yesterday on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but didn't use that opportunity.

So the U.N. stands up for reporters' visas but not for the hostages' right to meet with their embassy. The least the Secretary-General could do is demand that the Iranians allow a U.N. representative to meet with the hostages. On top of the weak resolution, the silence indicates to me that we shouldn't expect much statesmanship from the U.N. or the new Secretary-General at any point in this affair.

The Globalization of Martyrdom

By Assaf Moghadam

In today’s edition of the New York Sun, Hillel Halkin wonders whatever happened to Robert Pape, the University of Chicago professor who authored Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. In his book, Pape argues that the connection between suicide attacks and religion is exaggerated, and that suicide terrorism is “mainly a response to foreign occupation.” Halkin argues that Pape’s thesis hardly stands the test of reality, citing newspaper headlines from Iraq that report about scores of victims of suicide bombings aimed mainly at Shiites, which are hardly the source of the occupation in Iraq.

Already in 2005, I suggested in an op-ed published in the International Herald Tribune that the link between suicide terrorism and occupation is weakening as the tactic of suicide attacks is becoming increasingly globalized—a phenomenon I termed the “globalization of martyrdom.” I suggested that suicide attacks carried out by Palestinians and Tamils, as well as by the PKK and Hizballah were part of a traditional pattern of suicide attacks occurring mostly in the context of geographically localized conflicts—employing mostly local recruits and conducting attacks locally.

Since the mid-1990s, that traditional, localized pattern of suicide attacks has been accompanied by a globalized variant. This “globalization of martyrdom” implies that suicide bombers increasingly cross geographic boundaries—as evidenced, for example, by the high ratio of foreigners among suicide bombers in Iraq. Unlike traditional groups, the organizations responsible for globalized suicide attacks are transnational in nature and aspirations, and hence carry out their attacks outside of the traditional conflict zone.

While traditionally, suicide attacks have been perpetrated by both religious and secular organizations, the globalized variant of suicide attacks are planned and executed mostly by Salafi-Jihadist organizations, i.e. Al Qaeda and associated movements.

In an extensive critique of Dying to Win, I also challenged Pape’s contention that suicide terrorism “works.” In contrast to his argument that organizations perpetrating suicide attacks achieved their objectives in over fifty percent of the cases, I showed that at best, the objectives were achieved in only a quarter of all the campaigns. In addition, in that article I argued that Pape all but ignores the religious goals of Al Qaeda and other Salafi-Jihadist groups.

The Sudan Crisis and the Muslim Brotherhood

By Douglas Farah

Last weekend, as today's Washington Post editorial reminds us, the EU again huffed and puffed about doing something about Darfur. The situation is "intolerable" Mr. Blair said, adding that the actions of the Sudanese government were "completely unacceptable." Ms. Merkel chimed in on the need for stronger sanctions. And then they all walked away.

The Bush administration has done much the same thing. Remember "phase two" sanctions that were to go into effect on the first of the year if the government didn't halt the slaughter (and blah blah blah).

The toll remains staggering and the situation is not improving. Some 200,000 dead (on the very low end of estimates), 2 million driven from their homes, etc. etc. etc.

Why? Because the government of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, which is made up primarily of members of the Muslim Brotherhood (of which Bashir and Hassan al Turabi, among others, are prominent members) allow it. Turabi may be out of power, but not because of his ties to the Brotherhood, but due to internal rivalries that do not touch the heart of the Brotherhood project there. My full blog is here.

Combating Terrorist Financing in Europe: Gradual Progress

By Matthew Levitt

Michael Jacobson joined the Washington Institute last week from the U.S. Department of Treasury, where he served as senior advisor in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. Jacobson was previously a counsel for the 9/11 Commission and the 9/11 Congressional investigation. He published the following piece yesterday on ongoing European efforts to combat terrorist financing.

PolicyWatch #1213
Combating Terrorist Financing in Europe: Gradual Progress

By Michael Jacobson
March 26, 2007

In the wake of the July 2005 terrorist subway and bus attacks in London and the disrupted terrorist plot to blow up U.S.-bound planes flying from Heathrow airport in August 2006, the British government recently launched a new strategy to combat terrorism financing. Ed Balls, Britain's economic secretary to Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), said the strategy was designed to address "an enduring and continually changing terrorist menace to the [United Kingdom]." In Balls's view, financing is the "lifeblood" supporting the growing terrorist threat. Britain's ambitious and timely initiative is an important step forward. But broader European efforts to tackle terrorist financing -- particularly the efforts of the European Union (EU) -- still lack consistency and effect. Bureaucratic obstacles limit European efforts to designate terrorist entities and freeze their assets.

British Policy Efforts

On February 28, 2007, Economic Secretary Balls and Home Office Minister Tony McNulty unveiled the British government's comprehensive strategy to combat terrorist financing and money laundering, titled "The Financial Challenge to Crime and Terrorism." The government clearly recognized that, to succeed in this arena, HMT had to play a far greater role in counterterrorism efforts. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown -- Balls's immediate superior -- said in a speech several weeks earlier, "I have found that an increasingly important part of the role of a Finance Minister is to address issues of international terrorism. . . . In effect the Treasury itself had to become a department of security."

The strategy includes a number of measures designed to crack down effectively on terrorist financing in the UK. Of greatest significance: (1) the "Terrorist Asset Freezing Unit," a specialized team within HMT, will work closely with British law enforcement and intelligence agencies; (2) for the first time, permission will be granted to HMT to use classified information to freeze assets in certain cases; (3) steps will be taken to improve information sharing among the public and private sectors.

Al Qaeda settles in Lebanon

By Olivier Guitta

In the past few weeks, lots of press has been given to a Lebanon-based terror group loosely affiliated with Al Qaeda.
Its name: Fatah Al Islam.
Last week, Lebanese law enforcement officials said they arrested 4 Syrians members of FAI in Beirut and other Lebanese cities and were charging them with the February bombing of 2 commuter buses carrying Lebanese Christians.
It might be a good time to have an overview of this group.
The Croissant summarized and translated a piece from Libération on that topic:

Since the end of November, Fatah Al Islam (FAI) settled in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el-Bared, in the north of Lebanon

Who is FAI ?
· The emerging of FAI coincided with Ayman Al Zawahiri, Al Qaeda #2, calling for the mujahedeen “to carry the jihad at the borders of Palestine”
· Nevertheless FAI denies any linkage: “This message does not concern us. Al Qaeda has its strategy. We have ours.”
· Organization of more than 150 Islamists close to Al Qaeda
· Composed of local Palestinians from Fatah Intifada, a Palestinian organization based in Damascus
· Composed also according to Lebanese authorities, of other Arab countries nationals who came from Iraq in July 2006
· Has practical experience from their time in Iraq
· Also has financial means
· Owns about 30 computers, weapons and elements strongly aligned with Al Qaeda

To read the rest, please click here.

Now Available: Globalterroralert.com Video Cybercast #2

By Evan Kohlmann

The second edition of the Globalterroralert.com Video Cybercast is now available for download from Yahoo! Video, Google Video, and the Internet Archive. The cybercast covers an array of critical issues, including: Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's blistering attack on the Palestinian Hamas movement, Al-Qaida's continuing wave of violence in Algeria, the recent suicide bombing at a Moroccan cybercafe, legal charges filed against a Missouri-based terror financing front, the arrest of a jihadi webmaster in Spain, and a full update on the state of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq.

- View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on Yahoo! Video
- View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on Google Video
- View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on the Internet Archive

English-language transcript of Globalterroralert Video Cybercast #2

The David Hicks Case Riles the Australians

By Michael Kraft

The dispute over David Hicks, the Australian one-time kangaroo skinner who pleaded guilty in Guantanamo today on charges of providing material support to Al Qaeda, is a good example of two friends looking at each other through the different ends of the telescope.

And it raises caution flags over how the unintended consequences of the U.S. Government’s treatment of terrorists suspects rounded up in Afghanistan can strain relationships with even our best allies.

I recently returned from Australia where I found that the Hicks case loomed large this year in the Australian consciousness and political scene, especially as the five year mark approached that Hicks was held without trial. It was a major topic of conversation and fuel for anti-American feeling and letters to the editors claiming that the U.S. ignored the principles of fair justice.

In downtown Melbourne, a large banner “Justice for David Hicks” draped a landmark church. Australian Prime Minister Howard, already under attack for his commitment of Australian military forces to Iraq and Afghanistan, was on the defensive for allegedly not doing enough for Hicks despite his close relationship with President Bush. Nearly half of the members of the Australian Parliament signed letters to the U.S. Congress on behalf of Hicks, 31-year old convert to Islam from a checkered personal background.
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Hicks is believed the only Australian believed to be currently among the several hundred prisoners held in Guantanamo and the first terrorist suspect to face prosecution under the new Military Commission rules established by the Bush Administration after the Supreme Court ruled that the other procedures for dealing with captured terrorist suspects were unconstitutional.

He pleaded guilty Monday amid reports that he would go for a plea bargaining arrangement that would reduce his sentence and allow him to serve out his term in Australia.

According to press reports the judge ordered the prosecutors and defense lawyers to draw up a plea agreement, which is expected to spell out his sentence.There had been growing speculation before the commission hearing that Hicks may agree to a deal to plead guilty to a charge of providing material support to terrorism in exchange for a reduced sentence.

While the case has aroused Australian emotions and letters to the editor accusing the U.S. of acting arrogant, it has aroused relatively little attention in the United States. The claims by Hicks that he was abused and beaten while under custody, and the turmoil in the court today over who should be his lawyers, added fuel to the controversy Down Under.

It is another example of how issues, such as trade disputes over lamb or timber exports often loom large in the view of our close allies such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada but are virtually unknown to Americans. Their end of the telescope makes U.S. actions look large. We barely see the impact on our best friends.

This is not to pass judgment on the merits of the Hicks case. I do not profess to have any insights into the evidence that prompted the U.S. Government to detain and charge him. However some of my Australian friends, even those critical of the long detention, say that by going to Afghanistan and linking up with Al Qaeda, he was not on the typical innocent “walkabout” that many young Australians and New Zealanders undertake for a bit of overseas experience before settling down.

The length of the Hicks case, his lack of access to counsel of his choice and questions raised by holding prisoners for so long without a trial of any kind or constitutional protections was, however, an irritant in the usually good relations with one of our best allies. It is an example of how what is perceived as lack of due process hurts the U.S. image.

The fact that Hicks pleaded guilty, presumably for a lighter sentence, will not undo the damage with our best friends -- let alone our antagonists -- caused by the long delays in trials, accesses to lawyers, and developing a better procedure for dealing with terrorist suspects in the post-9/11 environment. It is another example of the difficulties caused by not thinking through the long term implications of the short term methods used in the “War on Terrorism.”

If there is any good outcome to this case, it will be if the legal community, the Executive Branch and Congress come together to develop better procedures – ones that are seen to be more fair -- than the existing civil or military processes used for dealing with terrorist suspects captured in a military situation.

Weak Sanctions On Iran Simply Won't Work

By Victor Comras

A number of my colleagues have suggested that I discuss further my concerns with the latest UN Security Council Sanctions Resolution on Iran. Many in the news media are characterizing the new round of UN Security Council Sanctions on Iran as “tough” and “stringent,” and my previous blog seems well out of step with these perceptions. Those assigning such positive attributes to Resolution 1747 are apparently relying, in part, on statements made by various world leaders that the Security Council’s unanimous support for Resolution 1747 demonstrates the international community's commitment to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. I wish that were the case, but I strongly doubt it. The new sanction measures, in my view, represent, at best, a very weak international response to Iran. They demonstrate a continuing strong reluctance on the part of key members of the international community to take any meaningful action to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons. And that may well signal to Iran that there will be only light penalties to pay down the road if they continue to move ahead on uranium enrichment. The suggestion that the Security Council means business and that tighter sanctions may follow must carry little weight with Iran’s leaders at this late stage after so many similar empty warnings over the last 18 months.

I am deeply concerned also with the way the Security Council is now formulating and using sanctions resolutions. They are simply setting the sanctions bar too low - both in terms of its impact and its enforcement - to have any effect. The Security Council should always avoid adopting measures that they already know, in advance, are unlikely to achieve any of the stated objectives. Such action serve only as an “empty gesture” or "excuse" for non-action on the part of the Security Council, and by others who are using the Security Council measures merely as an excuse for not taking any action themselves. This serves only to diminish the credibility of the Security Council and the effectiveness of sanctions as an effective foreign policy tool. The use of new terminology merely "calling" on states to "exercise vigilance and restraint" when it comes to halting the flow of heavy arms and military equipment, including missiles to Iran, or to restricting the travel of key nuclear and military personnel, is particularly ludicrous and disturbing. Why not ban such trade and travel outright? Hopefully, such provisions will not become standard fare when it comes to future sanctions resolutions.

I invite readers to compare the measures in Resolution 1747 to the kinds of sanctions measures imposed by the Security Council in previous times discussed below.

The weakness of the Resolution 1747 (2007) speaks for itself. It adopts 5 specific new measures to pressure Iran to comply with its call to abandon its unregulated uranium enrichment program. These include:

(1) A very limited asset freeze directed at an additional 28 Iranian military entities and military leaders, presumably few, if any of which, still maintain significant bank accounts or assets overseas. Of note, however, is the addition of Iran's Bank Sepah to the list of entities whose assets must now be frozen.

(2) A ban on Iranian sales and exports of arms and military equipment. Iran now sells arms to only a few countries in the Mideast and Africa, including Sudan. Hezbollah, also, is a major recipient of Iranian arms, but that covert supply route is unlikely to be affected by the new resolution. It is also unclear if the resolution applies to current arms purchase contracts.

(3) A non-obligatory suggestion that countries “exercise vigiliance and restraint,” when it comes to providing heavy military arms and equipment to Iran, including “battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles or missile systems.”

(4) A non-obligatory suggestion that all countries “exercise vigilance and restraint" when it comes to allowing specified Iranian military officers and nuclear scientists and engineers visit their countries; and

(5) A non-obligatory suggestion that all countries and international financial institutions not engage in new commitments for grants, financial assistance, and concessional loans, to the government of Iran, except if they are to be used for humanitarian or developmental purposes. But there is no suggestion that countries should also refrain from otherwise undertaking normal business transactions or commercial investments with the Iranian government, including investment in Iran’s key energy sector.

Now, who can really expect that any of these measures will deter Iran from its present course of action?

Let’s compare these measures to the severity of previous UN Security Council Sanctions resolutions. The most comprehensive and severe UN sanctions program were directed against Serbia and Iraq.

Jemaah Islamiyah and Aviation Security in Southeast Asia

By Zachary Abuza

Why are generals are always preparing to fight the last war? Several weeks ago in a security conference in Sydney, Australia, I was asked of he possibility of two jet liners near simultaneously crashing into the Sydney Harbor Bridge and the iconic Opera House. With Khalid Sheikh Mohammad recently in the news, attention has re-centered on the 9/11 attacks. The 9/11 attacks took years of planning a huge amount of money and an appallingly un-hostile environment in which they could plan. Reports of Middle Eastern men seeking pilot training (though expressing little interest in landings) would actually make it to the senior echelons of the FBI right now. A 9/11-style plot would be exceedingly difficult for even a resource rich and patient terrorist organization. Aviation will remain a key target of terrrorists, but not in the ways that most governments are thinking about. Low tech attacks can do every bit as much damage to an economy as spectacular plots to turn laden planes into guided missiles.

Info on the March 11 Casablanca bombing

By Olivier Guitta

From The Croissant come two stories on the 3/11 suicide bombing in Morocco.

First in the Moroccan daily Libération:
Arrests in the aftermath of the Casablanca suicide bombing

The suicide bombing occurred on Sunday March 11 in a cybercafé in the area of Sidi Moumen in Casablanca:
· This terrorist act was in preparation since last November
· 18 people were arrested and 6 others are actively sought after
· The perpetrator created a terrorist cell composed of several former prisoners, all from Sidi Moumen
· Specific economic sites were the probable targets of these extremists

then from Aujourd’hui Le Maroc

Internet’s role in terrorism

to read the rest, please click here.

A Response, and Response, on Issues of the Muslim Brotherhood

By Douglas Farah

Robert Leiken and Steven Brooke, the co-authors of the recent Foreign Affairs piece called "The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood," have posted this response to my, and others', strong disagreement with their premise that U.S. policy should include a dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, who, they contend, do not endorse jihad and embrace democracy. This is, I think, one of the most important debates we can have at this time.

I think they are badly and dangerously off the mark, as I will describe below, but apologize for my initial, overly-personalized description of their work as "shoddy and slipshod," and hope the ongoing debate we can stay away from personal attacks, and will do my part. I would also note that, in their response, Leiken and Brooke incorrectly state that my friend Yousef Ibrahim's credentials include a dismissal from the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Ibrahim had a one-year fellowship there, paid for by BP, and he returned to his post there after the fellowship ended.

Two other quick points. Leiken and Brooke critique my lack of sources on my blog. I would only point to my extensive published work on the international Muslim Brotherhood, which, on a blog, I did not have the time and could not reproduce.

I also never expressed "shock" at Zawahiri's attack on Hamas, nor "surprise" at splits brewing between the Brotherhood and the "jihadists." I simply noted they were happening as important matters to be understood by policy makers. On matters of more substance, here is another good response to some of the issues raised by Leiken and Brooke in Front Page Magazine.

My biggest disagreement is the failure to factor in, mention or discuss the Muslim Brotherhood as a clandestine group well experienced in denial and deception tactics, honed for more than four decades. I have talked to some Brotherhood leaders and read their literature extensively. My full blog is here.

Watch out for possible Hezbollah/Iran attacks in South America

By Olivier Guitta

Since the latest escalation between Iran and the West with the abduction of 15 British sailors, one can count on Iran using asymetrical means to target the West.
One of this would be to activate Hezbollah cells around the world and targets western interests in the redux of what was done in 1986 against France.
One area of particular concern is South America and in particular Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay and the tri-border region.
It's far from being a secret that Hezbollah is very active in the area and could possibly try to target these countries like they did in Argentina against the Israeli embassy and the Jewish center in the mid 1990's.
And that's why this story in the Saudi Al Hayat is interesting and frightening.
It was summarized and translated by The Croissant.
Here's the title:
Possible Islamist connection to fake IDs traffic in Brazil
To read the rest please click here.

Major U.S. Military Operations Coming in Diyala

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Friday, CBN News ran a story that I helped develop about coming major U.S. military operations in Iraq's Diyala province. An excerpt from Erick Stakelbeck's report:

The U.S. military has developed battle plans designed to clear al-Qaeda out of Iraq. High level military intelligence sources have told CBN News the offensive would target the Iraqi province of Diyala. The province is located just northeast of Baghdad, along the Iranian border. Many of al-Qaeda's forces in Baghdad moved there when the new troop surge was announced in January. Diyala is now a major launching pad for al-Qaeda suicide bombing attacks. "If you want to diminish the amount of car bombers and suicide bombers, you have to take the fight right to the source. And in this case, the source is Diyala," said CBN News consultant Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. Gartenstein-Ross says the Diyala offensive will be even bigger than the major U.S. operation in Fallujah back in 2004 -- which cleared out a city that had been a major insurgent stronghold. Military sources say the Fallujah operation directly led to the success of the 2005 Iraqi elections. Gartenstein-Ross said, "Here, the goal is going to be to drive these guys out of the country entirely." Sources say the initial plans involve three distinct strikes from three different directions. The goal is to destroy enemy training facilities and prevent al-Qaeda forces from escaping. "The insurgents are left with two choices--either to stand and fight or to retreat into Iran--at which point, they're Iran's problem," said Gartenstein-Ross. Al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, has been laying mines and positioning anti-aircraft batteries to counteract the coming offensive. One of the U.S. military's goals is to take out these anti-aircraft groups. That will likely involve heavy U.S. airpower.

A few more notes on the coming Diyala operations, from my discussions with U.S. military intelligence sources. First, when will it take place? General David Petraeus has requested another 2,500 to 3,000 troops as part of the surge. Once that request comes through, the Diyala operations will begin.

Second, the fact that the majority of al-Qaeda forces in Baghdad moved to Diyala when the surge was announced represents a significant shift in jihadist thinking. Earlier, jihadists had a kamikaze-type mentality of fighting to the death because of the glory and heavenly rewards that martyrdom entailed. However, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, articulated a different view: that it was better not to martyr oneself when there was a different course that could help the Ummah (worldwide Muslim community) more. Al-Masri compared this to Prophet Muhammad's hijra: Muhammad didn't fight the Meccans right away, but instead retreated to a place (Yathrib/Medina) where he could gather strength until he was ready to fight. Al-Masri's articulation of this view opened al-Qaeda's forces in Iraq to a higher level of pragmatism.

Third, the choice to rebase to Diyala was strategic. The Anbar province is mainly Sunni, while in Diyala the Sunnis have real fear of Shia death squads. The reason al-Qaeda decided to rebase to Diyala rather than Anbar is because they thought they would receive at least soft support from the Sunnis: because of their concerns about the Shias, the Sunnis would be less likely to challenge al-Qaeda.

Conference Summary: "Coping With Iran: Confrontation, Containment or Engagement?"

By Andrew Cochran

Phillip Smyth, Assistant Newslinks Editor, attended an excellent conference on U.S. policy towards Iran in Washington last week sponsored by RAND Corporation. He filed this report:

Iran has long been a state sponsor of terrorism, with current support of Hezbollah and allegedly of Shi’ite extremists in Iraq. With the recent kidnaping of fifteen British servicemen in the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway, the Coping With Iran: Confrontation, Containment or Engagement conference, hosted by the RAND Corporation in Washington, DC, couldn’t have come at a more interesting time. Expert panels discussed issues such as politics inside Iran, and how a nuclear Iran may act. Also discussed were prospects for a future Israeli or American attack and the repercussions of such attacks.

Experts were fielded from the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, the Brookings Institute, the Associated Press, NY Times, and AEI, to name a few. Some notables included: Ray Takeyh, Patrick Clawson, Karim Sadjadpour, Paul Pillar, Anne Gearan David Ochmanek, Kenneth Pollack, Michael Eisenstadt, Robert Hunter, R. Nicholas Burns, Helene Cooper, David Ignatius, James Dobbins, Martin Indyk, Danielle Pletka, Flynt Leverett, Steve Simon, Hasib J. Sabbagh, and Daniel Levy.

Coming on the heels of a reported plan formulated by former secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, was the question whether the MEK was properly considered a terrorist group. Asked, whether or not, the MEK could be used to affect regime change in Tehran, Patrick Clawson with the Washington Institute on Near East Policy answered, “I don’t know if the MEK is properly classified as a terrorist organization. The evidence which is offered to the public record is all about activities that date back, in many cases, a decade ago.” Adding, “I think it would be silly for the US to use the MEK for regime change. It has very little support inside Iran and is basically a cult, which is ignoble to US values.”

The New Iran Sanctions: “Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing”!

By Victor Comras

The UN Security Council, unable to come up with a consensus on meaningful sanctions measures against Iran, has settled on an effete set of measures unlikely to cause Iran to change course. In fact, UN Security Council Resolution 1747 (2007) breaks new ground when it comes to watered- down language, obfuscation and confusion. The new obligations are so trite and vague as to risk serious damage to Security Council credibility and to the future effectiveness of sanctions as a foreign policy tool.

For the first time this writer is aware of in a Chapter VII resolution, the Security Council has refrained from imposing any firm obligations on countries to actually enforce the new chapter VII sanctions measures. It merely calls on states to “exercise vigilance and restraint” when it comes to carrying out these new sanctions obligations. For example in Para 2 the resolution “Calls upon all States also to exercise vigilance and restraint regarding the entry into or transit through their territories of individuals who are engaged in, directly associated with or providing support for Iran’s proliferation sensitive nuclear activities or for the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems…” And these measures apply only to a small list of individuals, mostly members of the Iranian Armed Forces, contained in an annex to the resolution.

In Para 6 the resolution “Calls upon all States to exercise vigilance and restraint in the supply, sale or transfer directly or indirectly from their territories or by their nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft” of a limited range of heavy military equipment including battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles or missile system.

And then there is Paragraph 7 which “Calls upon all States and international financial institutions not to enter into new commitments for grants, financial assistance, and concessional loans, to the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, except for humanitarian and developmental purposes.” What does that mean? And who determines when the grants, loans, or financial assistance is for developmental or for other purposes? I guess that means that it is still all right for China, Russia and any other country to support investment activities in Iran’s oil and gas industry. This apparently leaves on the table the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) $16 billion investment in Iran gas field development.

So what does that leave in the new resolution that can be touted as “additional pressure” on Iran? It adds about two dozen or so new individuals and entities to the asset freeze included in Resolution 1737 (2006). And there is a new ban on buying weapons from Iran. There is also a requirement that countries now report to a Security Council committee whenever a targeted individual included in the resolution’s annex travels to their country. That's not much at all.

It is difficult to understand how these new measures, which include something less than a travel ban, something less that a financial assistance and investment ban, and something less than an arms embargo are going to dissuade Iran from continuing on its presence course.

The Courier as a "High-Value" Detainee: More Than Meets the Eye?

By Zachary Abuza

The public case against Mohammad Farik bin Amin Zubair (ISN10021) in his Combatant Status Review Trial held in Guantanamo Bay, on 13 and 17 March, was noticeable in its Elliott Ness mentality. The public case against Zubair, a Malaysian national, is based mainly on the fact that the Malaysian national brought in $50,000 dollars from Pakistan to Thailand, which was used for the August 2003 bombing of the J.W. Marriott in Jakarta, Indonesia. While he was also indicted for being part of "al Qaeda suicide team" that planned to attack a building in the United States, little information was laid out. The entire public evidence was on his role as a courier; hardly worthy of the importance the Bush administration has placed on him as one of the 14 “high-value” terrorists transferred from “black-rendition sites” to Guantanamo Bay. What’s going on?

One would hope that the private case against him will go into greater detail about the network of front companies that he helped to establish in Malaysia (and likely Cambodia and Thailand) for Al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah. The Malaysian government has never shut these down though assert that they are no longer being used by terrorist suspects. Zubair laundered money through a network of Islamist nursery schools and other madrassas, including a Kuwaiti-funded charity in Cambodia. Interestingly, the indictment against him does mention that he transferred $3,100 and bomb-making instructions to a Cambodian-Muslim terrorist, who may also be tied in with one of the groups involved in the current southern Thai insurgency.

The government obviously is aware of this. They may not be raising the broader financing issues in public session for diplomatic reasons, or they may simply go for the easiest conviction they can get. It could also reflect the difficulty of going after complex terrorist financing and money laundering cases through the courts.

Unlike Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who used the chance to make a brash public statement to rally Muslims around the world, Zubair declined, only asking several procedural questions.

Royal Navy "incident": The larger plan of Teheran's regime

By Walid Phares

The capture of British Navy servicemen by Iranian forces is not simply an incident over sea sovereignty in the Persian Gulf. It is a calculated move on behalf of Teheran's Jihadi chess players to provoke a "projected" counter move by London and its American allies. It is all happening in a regional context, carefully engineered by the Mullahs strategic planners. Here is how:

The Iranian regime's master plan is to wait out the remainder of Tony Blair's mandate (few more months) and the remaining "real time" of President Bush (till about the end of 2007). For the thinking process in Tehran, based on their Western consultants, believe that Washington and London have reached the end of the rope and will only have till 2008 to do something major to destabilize Ahmedinijad regime. As explained by a notorious propagandist on al Jazeera today the move is precisely to respond to the Anglo-American attempt to "stir trouble" inside Iran. Anis Naccash, a Lebanese intellectual supporter of the Ayatollahs regime, appearing from Tehran few hours ago on the Qatari-based satellite and "explained" that the "US and the UK must understand that Iran is as much at war with these two powers in as much as they support the rise of movements and security instability inside Iran." He added that Khamenei is clear on the regime's decision to strike: "we will be at war with you on all levels: secret, diplomatic, military and other." Pro-Iranian propagandists in the region, via media and online rushed to warn that this movement is part of Iran's counter-strike against any attempt to destabilize the regime. Two major tracks emerge from these statements, the Iranian military maneuvers and the capture of British Navy personnel.

Iran: Targeting the U.S.-U.K. Alliance

By Aaron Mannes

According to U.S. officials, the Iranian forces that seized the British sailors earlier today were Revolutionary Guards, also known as Pasdaran. This is a significant distinction. The Pasdaran is a military force that is independent of Iran’s regular military. The regular military is charged with defending the Iranian state, the Pasdaran defend the Islamic revolution. In this role, domestically they have crushed opposition riots and internationally they are linked to efforts to export the revolution. The Pasdaran collaborate with Hezbollah and the Palestinian terrorist groups and are central to other covert Iranian international activities (including, allegedly, in Iraq.)

From the Marine Barracks attack in 1983 which forced the U.S. led peacekeeping force out of Beirut, leaving Lebanon to the tender mercies of Syria and Hezbollah, to the hostage crises of the 1980s which sparked major political scandals in both the U.S. and France, to the AMIA attack in 1994 which both retaliated against Israel and punished Argentina for reneging on technology deals with Syria and Iran, and to the 1996 Khobar Bombing which increased pressure on the U.S.-Saudi relationship – the Iran has a strong record of carefully and effectively deploying terror attacks and hostage taking to further its goals. The Pasdaran have frequently been charged with implementing these operations.

In this case, targeting British servicemen could part of a growing strategy to push the U.K. away from the U.S. The strategy parallels the al-Qaeda strategy of targeting U.S. allies in Iraq (exemplified by the 3/11 Madrid attack which effectively knocked Spain out of Iraq.) With Tony Blair almost a lame duck and the Iraq war tremendously unpopular in the U.K., the next Prime Minister will probably distance himself from the U.S. While the U.S. and U.K. are certain to maintain a close alliance on many issues, there won’t be much British enthusiasm of high-risk American endeavors. Knowing that a stern line with Iran may result in messy hostage crises may lead to shifts in British policy.

For the United States, this would be a major loss. British support has been crucial, both in providing manpower on the ground but also in maintaining at least some international legitimacy in Iraq and elsewhere. For Iran, fostering U.S.-U.K. rifts is advantageous in Iraq where the Iranians would have a completely free hand in the Shia dominated south. These rifts could also create tensions in the efforts to maintain a united diplomatic front in checking Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

During the Lebanon hostage crisis of the 1980s Britain, unlike the U.S. and France absolutely refused to negotiate with terrorists. This stiff upper lip may be a thing of the past. A few years ago, after a diplomatic spat with Iran, the British government released Hadi Soleimanpour, Iran’s Ambassador to Argentina when the AMIA bombing occurred, rather than comply with Argentina’s extradition request. (Read my 2004 article on this here.)

France averted at least 1 terrorist operation per annum, since 1996

By Olivier Guitta

This according to an interview with French antiterrorist judge Jean-Louis Bruguière in L'Express summarized and translated by The Croissant

In 1994 i.e. way before anyone, Jean-Louis Bruguière :

· Noticed core of the terror threat moved towards the Pakistani-Afghan area:
- French individuals moved there to be trained in military camps
- Uncovered the Al Qaeda structure and understood that the USA was a direct target
- Alerted on several occasions the US State Department which did not believe him then

· To respond to the terror threat, France developed a proactive strategy:
- Priority of locating and neutralizing all the clandestine structures of logistical and/or financial support
- But also identify their contacts thus reconstituting the worldwide structure of these cells all now affiliated with Al Qaeda

To read the rest, click here.

Lebanon fears political assassinations in the next few days

By Olivier Guitta

From our foreign affairs and counterterrorism newsletter launched today The Croissant, comes a summary and translation of a very interesting article from the Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah.
Here it is:
· Citing a top Lebanese source:
Fear of a new wave of political assassinations in Lebanon just before the Arab summit in Riyadh on March 28-29

· Why?
- Syria wants to trigger an earthquake in Lebanon in order to divert attention during the summit
- Syria would use this strategy to escape the International tribunal set forth for the murder of ex- Prime Minister Rafik Hariri

· Main potential target:
Surprisingly, Syria’s usual ally, the president of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri

· Why Nabih Berri?
- He is trying to ink an agreement with Saad Hariri, under the patronage of Saudi Arabia
- This solution to the Lebanese crisis does not suit Damascus
- So Damascus will have no problems sacrificing him

For the rest please click here.

Iranian Captures of British Navy Personnel: Intentional Provocation or Local Decision? (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized 15 British Navy personnel from Iraqi waters and are holding them. The British Navy personnel "had completed a ship inspection when they were accosted by Iranian vessels." (UPDATE, 2:20 pm ET: Some additional details on the capture from U.S. forces in the area and a fisherman interviewed by the AP, but nothing has changed in the status of the British personnel.)

Questions: Is this an intentional act approved by senior Iranian leadership in response to findings of the British personnel, or possibly in reaction to the upcoming U.N. vote against Iran? The official IRNA news site includes a story complaining that the White House is throwing up a last-minute obstacle to the issuance of a visa for President Ahmadinejad to take part in the U.N. Security Council meeting Saturday on the Iran sanctions resolution - could that be the reason for this action? Is this a provocation similar to the Hezbollah seizure last year of Israeli soldiers, which led the Israelis into invading Lebanon, to test how the British and Americans move military assets in advance of armed action? Is this a calculated measure due to Iranian claims that the waters are, in fact, Iranian and not Iraqi (a 1975 treaty gave the waters to Iraq, but Iran disputes Iraq's jurisdiction)? UPDATE, 3:10 pm ET: Sky News reports the Iranians have officially protested the "illegal entry into Iranian waters of military personnel." Is this a reaction to what the British personnel found on their inspection, to ensure that their findings aren't translated into additional action? Could this be an Iranian countermeasure to the capture of Iranian officers by coalition forces in Iraq? Or is this the action of a local commander, unauthorized by leadership, and due to anything from bad navigation equipment (hard to believe but it happens), one too many drinks, or a misinterpretation of orders? Recall that (a) Iranian forces did something like this in 2004 and held British servicemen for three days, then released them, and (b) local commanders' mistakes have had devastating consequences, such as the accidental American shoot-down of an Iranian civilian airliner in 1988.

The phone lines are burning up but nothing else should at this point. Interestingly, the price of crude oil, often a sound indication of international skittishness, has not shot up in reaction to the event (as of 2:20 pm ET, crude was up less than 70 cents a barrel, certainly not "skittish"). The Iranians still have not issued any information on the event on the IRNA site. Let's wait and watch.

BBC Map of Area

See Matthew Levitt's March 15 testimony and February 16 post on financial sanctions against Iran and Douglas Farah's March 15 post on Iran's appeal of Interpol arrest warrants in connection with the 1994 Buenos Aires bombings.

Italian Hostage Swap --Not So Simple

By Michael Kraft

When the Italian government this week completed a deal in Afghanistan to obtain the release of an Italian journalist hostage, Daniele Mastrogiacomo, for five Taliban prisoners, the spokesman for Italian Prime Minister Roman Prodi was quoted as saying it was a simple issue of saving a life.

"We think that the life of a person is very precious,” said Mr. Prodi’s spokesman, Silvio Sircana, who is also described as a friend of Mr. Mastrogiacomo’s. “So if there is a chance to save a life, we must do all we can do. And this was our very simple line, and not anything more.”

Ah if only that were true.

Hostage situations are terribly cruel and complicated, presenting difficult, emotional issues for the families and friends, and the hostages themselves of course. These issues present dilemmas for the governments whose citizens have been grabbed by those seeking release of their comrades from jail, political goals, or sometimes just good old cash.

The danger of making deals with kidnappers, as the U.S, and other governments have found in the past, is that the short term goal of saving one hostage can be met, but often at the long term price of endangering other citizens when terrorists conclude that they can get away with taking more hostages in the future.

This was certainly the case when Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists seized dozens of Americans and others in flurry of hostage taking during the 1980’s. In deals orchestrated by then NSC staffer Ollie North, the US traded hostages for anti-tank missiles to Iran, the prime backer of the Shiite hostage takers. But soon after one hostage was released, another one was grabbed. In effect this kept up what a State Department colleague called a “hostage bank.”

The Italian-Taliban deal was criticized by U.S., British and Dutch officials. Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen, told reporters while in Kabul that “When we create a situation where you can buy the freedom of Taliban fighters, then in the short term there will be no journalists anymore.” It should be noted that in the Gaza strip the only representative of a major media still based there, a BBC correspondent, has been held hostage for more than a week by Palestinian terrorists.

As a former foreign correspondent in some trouble spots during my earlier career and the father of a journalist, I can sympathize with both Mr. Mastogiacomo’s plight during his 15 days of captivity and the Dutch Foreign Minister’s remarks. And as a former State Department counterterrorism official who was among those involved in the Lebanese hostage situation in the mid-1980’s, it is possible to understand the conflicting pressures on the Italian government in this Afghanistan situation as well as the those in Iraq in 2004 and 2005 when three Italians were kidnapped. There was a widespread assumption that that the government of then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi paid a cash ransom.

These cases are not easy to deal with, especially if persistent diplomacy and other pressures are to be used instead of caving in to demands.

But resolving future hostage situations will be made more problematic when the Italian Prime Minister’s spokesman rationalized its hostage trade as a “very simple line” to save a life “and not anything more.”

--
FOOTNOTE:
The United States government has had a long-standing policy, going back at least to the Nixon Presidency, against trading prisoners for hostages and the policy was repeated in the 1980’s and more recently refined in a February 20, 2002 Press Statement by State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.
His statement said in part:

“Based upon past experience, the U.S. Government concluded that making concessions that benefit hostage takers in exchange for the release of hostages increased the danger that others will be taken hostage. U.S. Government policy is, therefore, to deny hostage takers the benefits of ransom, prisoner releases, policy changes, or other acts of concession.

At the same time, the U.S. Government will make every effort, including contact with representatives of the captors, to obtain the release of hostages without making concessions to the hostage takers.

Consequently, the United States strongly urges American companies and private citizens not to accede to hostage-taker demands. It believes that good security practices, relatively modest security expenditures, and continual close cooperation with embassy and local authorities can lower the risk to Americans living in high-threat environments...”

New Arrests in London Transit Bombings of July 7, 2005 (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

British law enforcement made the first arrests for the July 7, 2005 transit bombings, which killed 52 commuters in addition to the four bombers. From the BBC website: "Two men, aged 23 and 30, were arrested shortly before 1300 GMT at Manchester Airport when they were due to catch a flight to Pakistan. A third man, aged 26, was arrested at a house in Leeds shortly after 1600 GMT. The men were held on suspicion of the commission, preparation, or instigation of acts of terrorism... Searches are being carried out at five houses in the Beeston area of Leeds, West Yorkshire Police said. (Note: Three of the 7/7 bombers lived in Beeston at one point or another). A flat and a separate business premises are also being searched in east London... A Scotland Yard spokesman said: 'Detectives have continued to pursue many lines of inquiry both here in the UK and overseas... We need to know who else, apart from the bombers, knew what they were planning. Did anyone encourage them? Did anyone help them with money, or accommodation?'" Sky News has a timeline of those attacks. "Jawa Report" has additional information and background on these arrests.

The British Intelligence and Security Committee published its special report (Acrobat file) analyzing the 7/7 attacks on May 11, 2006.

We extensively covered the 7/7/05 London bombings and the attempted bombings on July 21, 2005. I posted on July 7 with links to pictures from the bombing sites and an on-site report from a UK reporter. You can read our coverage of the immediate aftermath of both events in posts stored in our July 2005 archives and August 2005 archives (punctuation errors are the result of the transfer of the posts from our original site in use at that time).

Just hours after the 7/7 bombing, Walid Phares dissected internet statements from al Qaeda elements, which celebrated the "Ghazwat London." In early September 2005, as reported here by Evan Kohlmann, Al Qaeda released a videotape in which London 7/7 suicide bomber Mohammed Sadiq Khan explained his reasons for the attacks, and Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahri described the 7/7 attacks as the "9/11" for the UK and promised more such operations in "enemy territory" in the near future.

BBC's Map of Search Area

Other Contributing Experts have written on issues related to the two July 2005 events.

Somalia Deteriorates (Again)

By Douglas Farah

The news out of Somalia is again grim. The Islamist groups, capitalizing on the incompetence and inability of the government to do anything and its unwillingness to try to give a broad swath of the population a true stake in the government, are on the rise. The government's already-weak support is evaporating.

Al Qaeda-linked groups are now working to seize the moment, reportedly naming Afghan-trained Aden Hashi Ayro as its new leader.

The fighting in Mogadishu is escalating, as the Washington Post reports. The trickle of African Union troops and the lingering presence of the Ethiopian military is unlikely to change the equation much.

The reason is simple, and has been shown in Afghanistan, northern Nigeria, Iraq, Colombia and elsewhere. The Islamists prosper by offering what others cannot or will not deliver: security and a chance to live normal lives. My full blog is here.

LTTE & al-Qaeda: An Assessment

By Aaron Mannes

Sri Lanka's Daily News reports that the LTTE has stolen Norwegian passports and sold them to al-Qaeda affiliates. This is not implausible. Rohan Gunaratna (currently head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore) wrote in Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror, that the LTTE provided forged passports for Ramzi Yousef (specialists close to the WTC 1 trials dispute this assertion). Also, while allied with the Pakistani government in the late 1980s and early 1990s the LTTE smuggled weapons from Pakistan-based Islamists to their counterparts in the Philippines.

Naturally, allies of the Sri Lankan government are playing up this possible link between their local enemy and the enemy which is the focus of international attention. However, if this cooperation occurred it should not be construed as a grand strategic alliance. The LTTE has an international network of support among the Tamil diaspora and, because of Sri Lanka's strategic location astride shipping lanes, its own fleet of sea-going vessels. So it is well positioned to play a role in trans-national criminal activity. The alleged LTTE passport sales highlight how terrorism is the tip of the iceberg of trans-national threats.

In the past I've written that the U.S. should expand its efforts against the LTTE because it was morally consistent with targeting terrorists, it would contribute to stability on the Indian-subcontinent, and because the LTTE was embedded in international criminal networks that also service Islamist terrorists. It would appear, based on recent arrests of LTTE operatives attempting to purchase weapons in the U.S. (see here and here) that the US. has stepped up operations against the LTTE. However, the Tigers have an international network and it is less clear if resources have been devoted to fostering the regional structures necessary to effectively target an organization like the Tamil Tigers.

Cross-posted here.

New Studies on Muslim Brotherhood and on New Palestinian Government

By Andrew Cochran

Let me suggest two analyses on completely different subjects for readers' review and comment. The first is a long six-part series by Manal Lutfi on Asharq Al-Awsat, the Arabic international paper based in London, about the Muslim Brotherhood and its relationship with the U.S. over time. You can see part six, released today, here with links to each prior section. I haven't had time to read the entire series but notice a number of interviews with American officials and experts and a discussion of the organization of the Brotherhood. At one point in part six, the author refers to a November 2006 study by Contributing Expert David Schenker (but misspells his name). I look forward to reactions to this series from MB experts.

I also recommend this analysis of the new Palestinian government by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center at the Center for Special Studies in Israel. The analysis includes a profile of each Cabinet minister and a link to a detailed review of the platform of the new government.

U.S. Seeks Cessation of Investments in Iran and U.N. Designation

By Andrew Cochran

Testifying at a Congressional hearing today on Iran, senior Treasury & State Department officials said the U.S. is pressing for American companies to cease further investment in Iran, citing "jawboning" discussions with companies such as Shell Oil. They also said they are pressing for U.N. Security Council designation of Iran's Bank Sepah soon, which in "realspeak" means that U.N. action is in fact likely. The U.S. designated Bank Sepah on January 9 for its support of WMD proliferation, thereby cutting off access by this major Iranian bank to the American axes of the international financial system. U.N. designation would reflect a sea change among U.N. Security Council members over the past year and represent a significant U.S. foreign policy victory. See Matthew Levitt's and Jonathan Winer's posts on this issue. I highly recommend the testimony of Treasury Under Secretary Stuart Levey at that hearing, as an excellent summary on the graduated financial sanctions applied against Iran to date.

Bangladesh: Thousands of Militants on the Prowl and on Jama'atul Mujahideen Payroll!

By Animesh Roul

In a startling revelation, a top ranking military commander of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh, Mostafizur Rahman Shahin confessed during interrogation that about 5,000 cadres on monthly remuneration are operative across the country. Shahin also mentioned that the money for the Mujahideen comes from Bangladeshi expatriates settled in foreign countries, including the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Shahin, suspected to be involved in August 17, 2005 country wide serial bomb blasts, was arrested from his home in Gopalpur village, in Pabna on March 14 by the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) personnel. A huge number of leaflets, revolutionary books and letters were recovered from his house.

Though it is common knowledge that JMB has Ehsar (full-time) and volunteer members, the information about salaried militants will certainly raise eyebrows in counter-terror circles world-wide.

While the whole country is awating the execution of six top Islamic militants anytime in the coming fortnight, the anti-terror body RAB, along with police, have so far rounded up over fifty JMB militants from different places since March 01, expecting large-scale offensives from militants.

Major Raid in Indonesia

By Kenneth Conboy

The Indonesian police counter-terrorist unit, Detachment 88, conducted a major raid in Sleman, Jogjakarta, on the evening of 20 March. The targeted extremists responded with gunfire, resulting in one fatality and one serious injury. Several persons--the number was not immediately clear--were taken into custody.

The local media is reporting that Jemaah Islamiyah leader Abu Dujana was among the detained suspects. (One conflicting police statement, however, hinted that the raid netted members of Dujana's "network," not Dujana himself.) If true, it would be a major coup for the government. Although the JI ranks have been decimated with arrests in recent years, Dujana is thought to have held the highly symbolic post of emir. What's more, he may hold information about the whereabouts of other JI notables, like Zulkarnaen and Noordin Top.

Indonesian CT Forces Target JI in Shootout: Rumors that Two Top Leaders Neutralized

By Zachary Abuza

Detachment-88, Indonesia's elite counter-terrorism police, were involved in a shootout with a group of JI suspects in the Javanese city of Yogyakarta. One was killed and the other was captured. Early rumors surfaced that they might be top leaders of JI, including Malaysian national Noordin Mohammad Top and Abu Dujana. This has not been confirmed, but Indonesian police are confident that the two were part of Abu Dujana's network. Abu Dujana and Noordin Mohammad Top are two of the senior-most JI leaders still at large. Both have played important roles in fund-raising and recruitment.

ICJ Eminent Panel of Jurists on Terrorism, Law & Human Rights Continues to Question US Practices

By Victor Comras

The US Congress has so far paid little attention to the work of the Eminent Panel of International Jurists appointed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to develop and recommend new international legal standards in the war on terrorism. This special group was established in October 2005 and given an 18 month mandate to evaluate whether current counter-terrorism measures are “necessary and proportionate” under international law or are “excessive and risk undermining basic human rights and the rule of law.” The group’s final report is due later this year. The Panel has held a substantial number of hearings around the globe, and regularly issues press releases and other reports, available on the International Commission of Jurist website.

The Panel held three days of hearings in Washington last September and took testimony from US government officials, 9/11 victim families, and a broad range of American legal experts. US Counter-terrorism policies and practices, including the use of rendition, secret prisons, and incarceration under a “non defined” status as “illegal combatants” came in for particularly harsh criticism from the Panel. And other controversial US counterterrorism policies are also expected to take a “hit” in their final report. There were very few supporters for US use of these policies, and of allegedly wide ranging use of telephone wiretaps, and other intrusion into previously preserved privacy rights. The latest revelations of alleged FBI misuse of Patriot Act National Security inquiry letters undoubtedly will also now garner some Panel attention. While US policy makers may quickly pass over the criticisms directed at US counter-terrorism policies and practices, the Panel’s ICJ pedigree and its international prestige, will undoubtedly give its report a loud international resonance. And this factor alone would seem to merit greater congressional attention to the Eminent Panel of Jurist's work.

The Panel's most recent hearings were held two weeks ago in Pakistan. The Panel got an earful from all sides, and plenty of criticism of alleged US involvement in Pakistan's questionable counter-terrorism activities. While a number of Pakistan's modern and moderate legal community leaders stressed that Pakistan was trying to cope with an near impossible situation, and pleaded for the Panel's understanding that Pakistan had little choice but to impose stringent measures to hold its radical fringes in check, others criticized the Pakistan government for going too far. The critics alleged that Pakistan police and security forces routinely detained suspects without warrants, held them incommunicado without informing families, employed torture, and engaged in “illegal rendition” of Pakistan nationals for questioning in third countries. While the panel formally welcomed “the affirmation received by the authorities of the importance of combating the threat of terrorism within the law and with due respect to international human rights and international humanitarian law, and their commitment to do so,” members of the Panel reportedly expressed "grave concern" with Pakistan's actions during their individual press interviews.

The Panel will be holding its next series of hearings in Toronto and Ottawa, April 24th to 27th.

The Panel is composed of eight renown Jurists including Arthur Chaskalson, former Chief Justice and first President of the Constitutional Court of South Africa, (chairman), Vitit Muntarbhorn (Thailand), Professor of Law at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok and UN expert on human rights in North Korea; Hina Jilani (Pakistan), a lawyer before the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the UN Secretary General’s Special Representative on Human Rights Defenders; Mary Robinson, now Head of the Ethical Globalization Initiative, and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and former President of Ireland; Stefan Trechsel (Switzerland), former President of the European Commission on Human Rights, and judge at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia; Georges Abi-Saab (Egypt), former Judge at the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and for Rwanda; Robert K. Goldman (United States), Professor of Law at American University’s Washington College of Law, a former President of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and former UN expert on counter-terrorism and human rights; and Justice E. Raúl Zaffaroni (Argentina), a judge at the Supreme Court of Argentina.

The Panel has already held hearings also in Australia, Colombia, East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda), the United Kingdom (in London and Belfast), North Africa (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia), the Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay), South-East Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) and the Russian Federation. Prior to coming to Pakistan the panel visited India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Upcoming hearings are now being scheduled for countries in the Middle East, and with the European Union.

Al Qaeda Confessions Make the Case for Immigration & Border Controls

By Michael Cutler

The wheels of justice sometimes turn slowly but in most instances, inexorably. Finally the terrorist behind the bombing of the USS Cole and other horrific terrorist attacks has confessed to his role in several terrorist attacks. Walid Muhammad bin Attash, also known as Tawfiq bin Attash, has also confessed to having masterminded the nearly simultaneous attacks on the United States embassies at Kenya and Tanzania that resulted in the slaughter of more than 200 people and the wounding of many other victims.

What needs to be considered is that in order to create the wholesale destruction of the embassies and the serious damage to the USS Cole, bin Attash not only needed to obtain explosives, he needed to obtain false travel documents for his operatives in order to facilitate their travel in preparation for the attacks. Bin Attash also stated that he spent a year and a half preparing for the attack and referred to those who participated in the attack has the "cell." He noted that he provided members of the cell with false documents and also came up with stamps (presumably in their passports) and visas to facilitate their international travel. Clearly he, himself, traveled across international borders as he prepared the deadly attacks in which he was in charge. International travel is absolutely an intrinsic component to a terrorist attack. This should be a common-sense concept, but where the open borders advocates are concerned, common sense has been tossed in the trash can, because they do not want to hear anything that would deter or otherwise hamper their grandiose plans to virtually remove our nation's borders.

If our nation's leaders refuse to secure our nation's borders, they cannot protect our nation from international terrorists who would enter our country to attack our country. The effective enforcement and administration of our nation's immigration laws have to be considered a component of national security. The politicians often repeat slogans that they hope will ultimately gain "traction" if they repeat it often enough. A good example of such a phrase is that intelligence can prevent terrorism but that immigration has nothing to do with terrorism! Of course they don't provide a plan for obtaining effective intelligence, it is just that they will look for any supposed solution to protecting our country just as long as it does not involve securing our borders and making certain that the immigration benefits program has meaningful integrity. I can tell you from experience that valuable intelligence is often provided by informants. If you are concerned about terrorists who may have embedded themselves in our country creating a so-called "sleeper cell," then you need to cultivate informants in the United States who can act as the eyes and ears of law enforcement agents who are conducting investigations of terrorists and other criminals. Such informants can be absolutely essential in uncovering terror cells and criminal organizations. The easiest way to cultivate informants is to arrest an individual for violating various laws and offering him (her) and opportunity to avoid prosecution or have potential criminal charges reduced in exchange for the cooperation of this individual. The greater the cooperation and the higher the quality of the information, the greater are the rewards that are offered to the cooperating individual. The use of immigration benefits can also be a very attractive carrot in some situations. In fact, having spent roughly half of my career working closely with other law enforcement agencies, I can tell you from first-hand experience that the immigration component can be absolutely vital in convincing a bad guy to cooperate with law enforcement.

Meanwhile, at present, newly hired special agents at ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) who are being trained at the academy are not getting foreign language training and they are not receiving critical training in the identification of counterfeit, altered or otherwise bogus identity documents! Identity documents and supporting documents such as birth certificates, marriage licenses and other such documents are absolutely vital to the effective enforcement of the immigration laws and the accurate adjudication of applications for a wide variety of immigration benefits.

The Guest Worker Amnesty Program that are so strongly being advocated by President Bush, Senators McCain, Kennedy, Reid, and all of the usual suspects would represent a major gift to terrorists who want to create false identities for themselves to better hide in plain sight and embed themselves in our country as they put together the next terrorist attack.

Wake Up Call: 6 Months After the Thai Coup, Islamist Insurgency is Raging

By Zachary Abuza

Last week a group of militants in southern Thailand threw a small bomb in front of a small passenger van, disabling it, opened the side door, and shot all nine passengers, including three women and a young girl, execution style. Though several suspects have been arrested, the attack was reminiscent of the savagery of Algeria or Kashmir, and portends a bloody year in the restive south. The attack was also the latest in a string of more audacious and provocative attacks from Muslim insurgents.

Few realize the extent of the conflict in the south. So many have bought into the Thai government’s complacency and general sense of denial. The conflict in southern Thailand dwarfs any other conflict in Southeast Asia. Within the region, the United States remains pre-occupied with the southern Philippines, desperate for any success to justify the hundreds of millions of dollars invested there. There is alarming sectarian bloodletting in Indonesia’s outer islands. Though on a much smaller scale than southern Thailand, we should pay attention to it, simply because JI is involved. The situation in southern Thailand deserves greater attention.

More than 2,100 people have been killed in 38 months, and the government has proven completely incapable of responding to the situation and stemming the violence. That has given the insurgents considerable momentum, and caused a greater number of moderate Muslim civilians to be more supportive of the insurgents.

The brutal killing of the nine villains in the van, came days before the sixth anniversary of the 19 September 2006 coup. While the justification and rationale for the coup is still debated, people across the political spectrum placed considerable hope that the Council on National Security (CNS) and the government that they installed would do a better job than the Thaksin administration in stemming the violence.

Yet, the exact opposite has been true: the daily average rate of killing has more than tripled in the past six months, from 1.6 people a day in 2006 to almost four per day. Over 400 people, roughly 19 percent of the 2,100 people killed since January 2004 have died since the coup. Attacks have become more sophisticated and coordinated. Sadly the junta leaders remain oblivious to the reality on the ground and show precious little resolve in dealing with the insurgency, they remain mired in petty political squabbles in Bangkok and blind to the reports from their field commanders.

Besides the dramatic escalation in the number of people killed, there have been six discernable trends since the coup.

How Poorly (and Dangerously) We Understand the Islamist Agenda

By Douglas Farah

Two disturbing writing receiving widespread circulation in recent day tell me a great deal about how many Muslims in the United States perceive themselves and why U.S. policy is so far, and dangerously off the mark in countering the threat of Islamists.

The first is a Washington Post op-ed" by Genieve Abdo, the keynote speaker at a recent CAIR conference. In the piece she lays out, more strongly and honestly than most of the CAIR leaders have dared to do, the true Islamist/CAIR agenda in the United States.

She essentially outlines the Muslim Brotherhood position against Islamic assimilation into the Western world and starkly states that Islamist really have no interest in such assimiliation.

"What all this means is that Western hopes for full integration by Muslims in the West are unlikely to be realized and that the future of the Islamic world will be much more Islamic than Western," she writes. This is true as long as she, CAIR and other Islamist groups continue to preach to the new generation that the more alienated one is from our culture the closer to Allah they really are.

The truth is, Abdo, CAIR and the other stalking horses for the Muslim Brotherhood and radical Salafists want to create an Islamic nation here. There is no middle ground. Chilling as Abdo's writing is, it is at least more honest than much of the "we just want to get along" paplum CAIR routinely puts out.

The second writing is in the recent article in Foreign Affairs by Robert Leiken and Steven Brookes, describing the Muslim Brotherhood as a moderate force that embraces democracy. My full blog is here

One Man's Transformation on Iraq Worth Considering

By Andrew Cochran

On this anniversary of the entry of U.S. troops into Iraq, it's instructive to look back on the changes in opinions on the war as the nature of the conflict changed. Last month, "Army Magazine" published "The Modern Seven Pillars of Iraq," an essay by Lt. Col. Craig Trebilcock, U.S. Army Reserve, who served as a Judge Advocate and coordinated reconstruction of the Iraqi legal system, during a one-year deployment. Writing before the "surge" in U.S. troops into the region, Col. Trebilcock wrote pessimistically on the use of additional military force and recommended a political strategy based on what he views as seven "pillars" of Iraqi culture, one of which is: "The primary concern of Iraqi officials is not democracy or the political evolution of a successful Iraqi nationstate. It is the use of their position in government to gain personal wealth, as well as benefits for their extended family, tribe or sect." Trebilcock has come to the conclusion that the American ideal of democracy is simply not and will not be a part of Iraqi culture. "As the concept of democracy does not have significant value in Iraqi culture, the people’s willingness to fight and die for its success is virtually nonexistent. Instead, consistent with their cultural expectations, Iraqis will tend to use their official or security positions to gain personal and family advantage, even if “Rome” burns about them. The daily involvement of corrupt Iraqi police in kidnappings and extortion reflects this." (If this looks familiar to readers, see my recent post about the Iraqi police.) He concludes with a prediction of strategic defeat, "In the end, by ignoring the cultural and internal political realities of Iraq in favor of a one-dimensional approach based upon military remedies, the civilian leadership of our military will likely win the battle and lose the war."

His current views contrast sharply to his views in October 2003, seven months after the beginning of the war, when he wrote an op-ed for the Washington Times titled, "Why War in Iraq?" Then, it was all about rescuing Iraqis from Saddam Hussein's own rule of terror: "Those who fought to liberate Iraq shake their heads in wonder that President Bush and Tony Blair are still under attack as to whether a particular piece of intelligence regarding WMD was good enough to justify military action when the lives of millions have been saved from murder and oppression. Although the fighting continues, the groundwork is being laid every day for Iraq to emerge as a free and stable country in a region characterized by oppression and instability. On the strategic scene, these are issues in the vital interest of the United States worth fighting for." A lot of us shared those views then.

It's true that since the surge, the numbers have changed in our favor. Let's see it as it is, a short-term indicator of tactical success, and not a predictor of the final strategic outcome.

The Chlorine Gas Attacks in Iraq and the Specter of Suicide Attacks with CBRN Weapons

By Assaf Moghadam

Last week’s triple chlorine-gas suicide attacks that hit Falluja and Ramadi sent shockwaves around Iraq, while raising the specter of more widespread use of chemical weapons by terrorist groups in Iraq and beyond. The bombings followed a series of earlier chlorine gas attacks, although no chlorine gas attacks were recorded prior to January 2007.

An Unusual Apparent Win-Win on North Korea

By Jonathan Winer

It looks like the Treasury strategy to sanction Banco Delta Asia (BDA) may have worked.

Today, North Korea announced not only its renewed participation in the Six Party Talks on nuclear proliferation, but also its intention immeditaely to halt its nuclear activities as soon as all of its funds frozen at a Macau bank in response to US pressure are released.

"If the Banco Delta Asia (BDA) issue is completely resolved, (North Korea) will halt its nuclear activities at Yongbyon," North Korea's lead negotiator, Kim Kye Gwan was quoted as saying in a keynote speech at the opening of the latest round of talks over the country's nuclear weapons program.

In return, the U.S. gave up $25 million in frozen North Korean government funds held at BDA, but with limitations that made the deal a face-saver for all parties, and achieved U.S. objectives. As stated today by Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Glaser, the U.S. government's lead negotiator on the disposition of the frozen assets, North Korea has agreed to use the funds for specific humanitarian and educational purposes, while the bank itself remains on U.S. sanctions lists having been forced in September 2005 into receivership by US action, sending a strong message to other banks to be careful of handling any transactions involving North Korea that could be related to illicit activity. As DAS Glaser warned in a Treasury press release:

"Financial institutions that facilitate weapons proliferation, terrorist financing, narcotics trafficking, and other illicit financial activity should be on notice of the significant consequences they face."

BDA is a nice case study of what a financial institution should not do if it wishes to remain in business. Which financial institution will be the next terrorist finance or proliferation poster child?

Transcript of Al Qaeda Leader Bin Attash's Confession to U.S.S. Cole & Embassy Bombings

By Andrew Cochran

Senior Al Qaeda operative Waleed Mohammed Bin Attash (a.k.a. Tawfiq bin Attash or Tawfiq Attash Khallada) confessed to planning the October 2000 attack on the U.S.S. Cole, which killed 17 and injured 37, during a hearing at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. He also said that he planned the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. Here is the complete transcript of the hearing (corrected), here is an unclassified summary released by DOD, and here is a DOD press release on the hearing.

Douglas Farah posted last week on the decision by a U.S. federal judge to hold Sudan liable for the U.S.S. Cole bombing. I posted links to the transcripts of the hearings for other high-value Al Qaeda leaders, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Here is information about bin Attash's connection to a foiled 2004 terrorist attack on the U.K. and U.S. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross posted in December on the links between the Al Qaeda 1998 embassy bombing team and Somalia's terrorists, and I posted in January after U.S. airstrikes targeted Al Qaeda's African operatives who participated in the 1998 bombings.

Archived AP picture of bin Attash

Note to FBI: Remember Canadian Terror Plot & Beslan School Massacre

By Michael Cutler

The FBI has alerted law enforcement officials across the United States that they have information that aliens under recent investigations, with ties to extremist organizations have been involved with buying school buses and/or obtaining licenses to drive school buses - but they say that there is nothing to be concerned about!

I find a couple of sentences in the article I have attached below to be particularly worrisome. Consider this sentence:

"Asked about the alert notice, the FBI's Rich Kolko said, "There are no threats, no plots and no history leading us to believe there is any reason for concern," although law enforcement agencies around the country were asked to watch out for kids' safety."

School bus drivers also have easy access to the schools as well as the young students. If we are to consider some recent history, consider what occurred in August 2004 Beslan in Russia when terrorists attacked a school and 323 hostages were killed in the effort to end the siege. Among those who died were 156 children who were slaughtered. Hundreds of additional, badly injured hostages were taken to hospitals. Here is the CNN account of that terrorist attack in Russia.

So I wonder to what "history" Mr. Kolko was referring.

Additionally, school buses would make attractive conveyances for terrorists for another reason, these vehicles are relatively large and ubiquitous. They are virtually invisible because they are commonly seen throughout the United States. They can be used for surveillance purposes and can also be used as weapons because of their size which would make them ideal for packing with explosives.

The other sentence in the article that I find to be interesting is:

"But Homeland Security and the FBI "have no information indicating these individuals are involved in a terrorist plot against the homeland," it says. The memo also notes: "Most attempts by foreign nationals in the United States to acquire school bus licenses to drive them are legitimate."

No Rescue in Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

Last Saturday night (with President Bush landing in Colombia the next day) the U.S. Embassy in Bogota confirmed that U.S. and Colombian soldiers had engaged in a joint operation seeking to rescue three U.S. military contractors who have been held by the FARC since February 2003.

The Embassy’s confirmation that an operation was in progress was also, effectively, a confirmation that the operation would not succeed.

Read the complete blog entry here.

Latest Developments in the Hariri Investigation: The 7th Report of the Independent Commission.

By David Schenker

On March 15, the UN released the 7th report of the International Independent Commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, 14 subsequent assassinations, and a host of post 2005 terrorist acts in Lebanon. The most recent of the terrorist atrocities under investigation are the assassination former Lebanese minister of industry Pierre Gemayel, and the Ain Alaq bus bombings that killed three and wounded over twenty. The report is quite dense and highly technical, but if you can manage to slog through 20 pages, the report is a fascinating read.

The Commission, now headed by Belgian prosecutor Serge Brammertz, was established pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1644 (March 2005), some two months after the Hariri murder. The initial reports explicitly pointed to a key Syrian role in the assassination. (Interestingly, the first report, published in October 2005 and penned by then lead investigator Detlev Mehlis, was apparently heavily edited by then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, denuding the report of references to top Syrian officials implicated in the killing.)

More recently, though, the reports have focused on primarily on process, forensics, and motives. While they have made fewer headlines then their predecessors, these recent reports have been no less damaging to the Syrians. Key findings of the March 15 Report include:

Cost of Doing Business: Chiquita in Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

The recent report that Chiquita Brands International has been fined $25 million for paying $1.7 million to the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym AUC) certainly raises the specter of giant American corporations in collaborating with local thugs to oppress the local population in order to provide cheap produce for the American people and maximize profits. The fact that Chiquita Brands is the successor to the notorious United Fruit Company, which for decades was involved in malfeasance in Latin America, only contributes to this image.

The reality may be more complicated. First, although the fine is for paying the AUC, the plea agreement also states that Chiquita made payments to the FARC and ELN. The company claims, plausibly, that these payments were necessary to do business in Colombia and protect is employees. The DOJ filing reports that after the AUC forced FARC out of the area where Chiquita was operating, Carlos Castano, AUC chief and mass murderer, made clear, albeit unspoken, threats. Recent kidnappings of geologists and oil workers as well as FARC attacks on dairies affiliated with Nestle further support the argument that doing business in much of Colombia requires paying off loathsome people.

Chiquita disclosed its payments to the AUC to DOJ in April 2003 and publicly in May 2004. A month later they completed the sale of their Colombian operation to a local company.

This raises an important moral question. Multi-nationals are accused of many evils, but because of their international standing they are also subject to international pressure and the laws of Western democratic nations. They also, at least occasionally, are run by moral people who are at least somewhat concerned with these issues. When these operations are taken over by local companies they are less subject to these pressures. Alternately, if the operations close down completely – or are dissuaded from even entering Colombia - it only forces more people into the illicit economy.

Chiquita’s actions were illegal and their payments helped the AUC continue its vicious campaign. But the underlying issue is the broader security situation in Colombia. As long as the writ of law does not extend fully throughout the country and there are large armed groups challenging state authority, businesses will be forced into deals with the devil.

Cross-posted to TerrorProfiles.

Pulling Tehran's Purse Stings

By Matthew Levitt

How can the United States and the international community raise the costs for Iran's continued defiance of the international community over suspension of its uranium enrichment program? What levers are likely to feed on domestic discontent and induce the regime in Tehran to abandon such objectionable and threatening activities as its sponsorship of terrorism, production and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (and the missile systems to deploy these weapons)?

Most commentators agree that any viable answer has to include a combination of military, diplomatic and financial tools as well as a mix of carrots and sticks. Where experts differ is on the question of how to apply these tools and in what combinations.

Click here to read my complete testimony from earlier today before the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade and Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia.

Iran to Appeal Interpol Red Notices in Argentina Bombing Case

By Douglas Farah

Iran says it will appeal Interpol's formal finding that there is enough evidence to issue "red noticies" for five senior Iranian officials and one Lebanese in the 1994 bombing of the Jewish center in Buenos Aires.

Today's announcement by Interpol, formalizing the finding I erroneously described earlier as final, is a sharp blow to Iran and it's Hezbollah allies. The judicial committee had made the decision, but not the Interpol executive committee as a formal decision when I last wrote.

At a time when there is a fragile consensus on moving against Iran for its defiance on nuclear issues, further enlightening their status as a rogue nation cannot be helpful. My full blog is here.

My Congressional Testimony on Immigration Fraud and Terrorism

By Michael Cutler

I testified before the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security today on the important issue of the detention of aliens seeking political asylum in the United States. I reminded the Members and public of the potential for terrorists to illegally enter the country through immigration fraud. Here is the text of my testimony:

Chairman Thompson, Ranking Member King members of Congress, ladies and gentlemen, it is an honor to testify before this committee on the important issue of the detention of aliens seeking political asylum in the United States. I hope that my perspectives based on my many years working at the former INS can be helpful to you as you consider the critical issues concerning the issue of the detention of illegal aliens in the United States as they apply for political asylum.

Our nation has a proud tradition of providing refuge to people fleeing persecution in their respective native countries; however, we also know that those who would enter our country to do harm to our country have found in our kindness, potential weakness. While our nation’s porous borders, especially the border the separates the United States from Mexico has received quite a bit of attention, the reality is that it is estimated that perhaps as many as 40% of the illegal aliens who are present in the United States did not gain entry into our country by running our nation’s borders and circumventing the inspections process at a port of entry, but did, in fact enter our country through a port of entry and then went on to violate the terms of their admission into the United States by overstaying their authorized period of admission, securing illegal employment or becoming involved in criminal activities.

Immigration benefit fraud is a huge problem within the immigration bureaucracy and one that has been documented in a number of GAO and OIG reports. False claims concerning political asylum are simply a category of such fraud. There have been numerous instances where an alien will apply for political asylum in a last ditch effort to avoid deportation. In some cases, aliens apply for political asylum as a strategy to overcome his inability to secure a visa for the United States. Among those who have gamed the system to gain access to our country have been terrorists.

Janice Kephart, a former counsel to the 9-11 Commission testified before the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on March 4, 2005 at a hearing entitled, “Strengthening Enforcement and Border Security: The 9/11 Commission Staff Report on Terrorist Travel." She made a couple of statements at that hearing about political asylum worth considering today as we consider issues relating to political asylum:

"Political asylum and naturalization are two of the benefits most rampantly abused by terrorists. In my recent study of 118 terrorists, 23 who lacked proper travel documents or sought to avoid deportation claimed political asylum."

KSM Claims Links to Indonesian terror attacks

By Kenneth Conboy

Among the many points that stand out in the DoD transcript of proceedings against Khalid Sheikh Mohammed are his claimed links to terror attacks in Southeast Asia in general, and Indonesia in particular. Listed below are some of these claims, along with comments:

* KSM claims he was "responsible" for the bombing of a nightclub in Bali. Comment: This is a reference to the two nightclubs that were attacked by Jemaah Islamiyah in October 2002. KSM can claim some responsibility for this because he had encouraged JI to stage attacks against Western targets, and he helped send some (though not all) of the funds used to stage this attack. It was Jemaah Islamiyah, however, that selected this target, and it was Jemaah Islamiyah that must accept prime responsibility for this attack.

* KSM claims that he was responsible for planned New (or Second) Wave attakcs against U.S. skyscrapers after 9/11. Comment: This is a reference to KSM's hand-picked team of Malaysian members of Jemaah Islamiyah who were being preened for follow-on attacks involving aircraft kamikaze attacks against U.S. skycrapers. At least one of these Malaysian received pilot training. All members of this team have apparently been captured.

* KSM claims that he was responsible for the planning, surveying, and funding for the the destruction of American embassies in, among other locations, Indonesia. Comment: Jemaah Islamiyah did conduct reconnaissance against the U.S. embassy in Jakarta circa 2000, but never got beyond making a video (of poor quality) of the front gate. JI members brainstormed various methods of attacking the embassy, including a kamikaze attack by a helicopter. The plan never apparently progressed beyond this stage.

* KSM spoke of pushing for an attack against an American oil company in Sumatra owned by Henry Kissinger. Comment: Before selecting Bali as their target in October 2002, Jemaah Islamiyah contemplated attacks against the ExxonMobil gas field in Aceh (on the island of Sumatra), the Dumai port used by Caltex (on the island of Sumatra), a gold mine on Sumbawa island (in Nusa Tenggara Barat province) and the Freeport gold mine (in Papua). Kissinger is on the board of Freeport. KSM probably heard of these targets, and confused the oil targets on Sumatra with Kissinger's affilation with Freeport.

Transcripts of Hearings For Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (REVISED Mar. 15), Abu Faraj al-Libi, & Ramzi Binalshibh

By Andrew Cochran

Here are the transcripts of the hearings held by the Defense Department with the three most senior Al Qaeda leaders in custody in the world, first provided to us by Jean Charles Brisard. The Defense Department has posted more information at a special website.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, REVISED, March 15: "I was responsible for the 9/11 operation from A to Z" and "I decapitated with my blessed right hand the head of the American Jew, Daniel Pearl, in the city of Karachi, Pakistan"

Abu Faraj al-Libi (who did not attend his session)

Ramzi Binalshibh (who refused to attend the session)

KSM claimed responsibility for planning up to 28 attacks, some of which were never carried out, and complained of torture while in custody. Al-Libi reportedly masterminded two bombings in Pakistan in December 2003 targeting President Pervez Musharraf for his support of the U.S.-led war on terror. Binalshibh is suspected of helping Mohammed with the 9-11 attack plan and is linked to a plot to crash aircraft into London's Heathrow Airport.

BDA's Blind Eye and Deceptive Practices

By Matthew Levitt

Just a couple of days ago the International Herald Tribune (IHT) reported that Macanese authorities had joined managers of Banco Delta Asia (BDA) in an effort to convince U.S. Treasury officials not to finalize its rule against BDA under section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act. According to the IHT, they argued that Macanese government's successful receivership of the bank -- a panel of three officials has run the bank since September 2005 -- sufficiently cleaned up the bank such that shutting the bank out of the U.S. financial system was no longer warranted.

In fact, Macanese officials have been full partners in the U.S. Treasury's investigation of BDA. And since their receivership is not structured to remain indefinitely BDA, and in light of BDA's "deceptive financial practives and grossly-inadequate controls," the Treasury Department announced today that it was, in fact, finalizing the 311 rule targeting BDA.

Details of Justice Department Charges Against Chiquita Brands for Terrorist Dealings

By Andrew Cochran

The Justice Department has charged Ohio-based Chiquita Brands International with doing business with a terrorist organization in Colombia, the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces (AUC). DOJ also provided information on Chiquita's dealings with two other terrorist groups there, the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN). The move could be part of a settlement with Chiquita, which announced in a corporate filing in February that it was reserving $25 million for a settlement with the DOJ.

DOJ's filing with the U.S. federal court in Washington (Acrobat file supplied by the great research team at the Investigative Project on Terrorism) indicates that certain Chiquita officers made over 100 payments to the AUC, totaling over $1.7 million, from 1997 to early 2004. It has been illegal for any American to provide material support to the AUC since its designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on September 10, 2001. The filing (an "information" often filed prior to a plea agreement) details the means and methods of numerous payments made by Chiquita officers under threat of violence issued by the AUC, even after the designation, and with the knowledge of Chiquita's senior executives. Upon learning of the payments in April 2003, the Chiquita Board of Directors promptly disclosed the matter to the Justice Department, according to the filing, but the unnamed officers continued the payments and created a separate set of books to hide the payments for 2003.

The DOJ filing also discloses that Chiquita also made payments to the FARC and ELN terrorist groups from 1989 to 1997. No charges were filed against Chiquita for those payments, as those groups were named Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 1997, after the payments ceased. Chiquita sold its Colombia operations in 2004, as urged by at least one board member upon learning of the illegal AUC payments.

On February 22, Chiquita released its earnings for the previous quarter and full year, and disclosed that it had entered into plea discussions with DOJ and reserved $25 million for payment of a fine over as many as five installments (see page 3 of this company press release). Based on the form of this DOJ filing, it appears that we'll see a court appearance and plea agreement announced with a few days.

The filing says that DOJ officials did not order Chiquita to cease the payments and "acknowledged that the issue of future payments was complicated." The DOJ decision to not demand immediate cessation of the payments will draw fire from commentators and perhaps from Congress. The plea agreement will also raise questions of favorable treatment of corporations compared to individuals in the same position.

Sudan Found Liable for Terrorism in USS Cole Trial

By Douglas Farah

A federal judge in Norfolk, Virginia today found the government of Sudan liable for terrorism for the Oct. 12, 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in the port of Aden, Yemen.

"There is substantial evidence in this case presented by the expert testimony that the government of Sudan induced the particular bombing of the Cole by virtue of prior actions of the government of Sudan," U.S. District Judge Robert G. Doumar said.

(Full disclosure: I gave a deposition as an expert witness supporting the victims' charge in the Sudan case).

This was a little noticed but important trial for the issue of material support for terrorism. The families of the 17 people killed in the al Qaeda bombing of the USS Cole sued the government of Sudan for offering the support that made the attack possible.

It is extremely important, in the ongoing battle with Islamists, to establish clear legal culpability, and the families in the Cole case did that. The judge's decision, not expected for several days, seems to bear out how overwhelming the evidence was.

Another indication is that, unlike the trial for Sudan's responsibility in the 1998 bombings of two U.S. Embassies in East Africa, the government of Sudan, run by hardcore Islamists who gave al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden shelter and support, did not take, according to its attorneys, any position on the material facts of the case.
My full blog is here.

Michael Cutler & Matthew Levitt to Testify Before Congress

By Andrew Cochran

Contributing Experts Michael Cutler and Matthew Levitt will testify before Congressional committees at separate hearings tomorrow. Michael will testify before a subcommittee of the House Committee on Homeland Security on the topic, "Crossing the Border: Immigrants in Detention and Victims of Trafficking," with the hearing beginning at 10 am. Matthew will testify before two subcommittees of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on the topic, "Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Latest Developments and Next Steps," with the hearing beginning at 1 pm. We'll post more tomorrow on the hearings and testimonies. You can see posts by each Contributing Expert on these topics through their respective archives page:

Michael Cutler's archives
Matthew Levitt's archives

Grisly New Attack in Thailand's Restive South Signals Increased Violence

By Zachary Abuza

This morning, the insurgency in southern Thailand took an ominous turn for the worse. Insurgents threw a small bomb in front of a small passenger van, disabling it. They opened the van door, and dragged all nine passengers, including four women, outside and shot them in the head execution style. All were Buddhist. This is reminiscent of Iraq or Kashmir, not Southeast Asia.

This attack is yet another escalation in a conflict that has no traction in foreign capitals and amongst the security services. More than 2,100 people have been killed in 38 months. The rate of killing in 2007, is almost four people a day, three times the average for 2006. Four people have been beheaded in 2007, alone, bringing the number to almost 40. While insurgents have stepped up their attacks on police and soldiers, civilians, monks, women (including pregnant women), and children have been killed with appalling frequency. A week ago, insurgents opened fire on a class of 5th graders, leaving one 11-year old in a coma. The following day two female college students were gunned down on their way to class. The insurgents have stepped up their attacks on economic targets, that they are hitting with more concerted effort. One of the largest rubber factories in southern Thailand was attacked on 21 February, destroying over $11 million of inventory. A Chevrolet dealership was hit a weak earlier, destroying 20 vehicles. On Chinese Lunar New Year, militants coordinated some 50 bombs and arson attacks, against predominantly ethnic Chinese targets. While IED technology has plateau-ed, 15kg ammonium nitrate bombs are now a regular occurrence. Militants have used a variety of detonators and their small arms tactics have improved.

The Thai military enjoyed a rare success last week when they came across a training camp in a remote part of Narathiwat. Five militants were killed and several small arms were recovered. Yet this was a rarity. Militants remain the capacity to attack at will and the attacks have become more frequent, more violent and more provocative. Closing in on six months after the 19 September 2006 coup, the military-backed government is powerless to stop the violence. Building on these attacks, more will soon follow.

Washington Post Misses the Mark on the Askariya Mosque Bombing

By Evan Kohlmann

Today's Washington Post features an article by Thomas Ricks (titled "Shrine bombing as war's turning point debated"), suggesting "many Iraq experts" are in disagreement with the "Bush administration" assessment that the February 2006 Askariya mosque bombing in Samarra was a major tipping point for the war in Iraq. There are several comments that should be made regarding this piece:
1.) Sectarian violence in Iraq began on a small scale by mid-2003 and only escalated from there. I don't think anyone either in or outside the Bush administration is trying to suggest that internecine conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq first emerged in February 2006. Indeed, the infiltration of Iraqi security forces by Shiite militiamen was giving rise to greater and greater resentment among Sunnis. But what was *different* about the Askariya mosque bombing was that this single act served as the "final straw" for Shiites who had restrained their anger and feelings of vengeance during nearly three years of suicide bombings, assassinations, and massacres. Who executed all these sectarian operations? Until late 2005, the majority of provocative terror attacks targeting Shiites in Iraq were executed by Al-Qaida and its local Sunni supporters. Other mainstream Iraqi Sunni insurgent groups didn't really jump on that bandwagon until the winter of 2006 -- when Shiite militiamen themselves went haywire in response to the bombing in Samarra. That isn't my opinion as an informed observer, or from reading the newspaper -- that's just plain fact if you statistically tally up the claims of responsibility from the groups themselves. An important lesson here for everyone: if you are attempting to discuss and evaluate the insurgency in Iraq, you should at least try and listen to what the real insurgents are saying (and by "real insurgents", I'm not referring to the widely-despised Mishal Jabouri at Al-Zawraa television).

2.) Almost all of the "dissenting" experts quoted in the Washington Post article are former Defense Department officials and analysts. Yet, as the article itself concedes, the majority of U.S. military officers it had consulted do, in fact, concur that the Askariya mosque bombing was a major tipping point for the war in Iraq. The Post also quoted Asad Abu Khalil, whose strident political views on the war in Iraq eclipse somewhat his credibility as an independent analyst. I wonder, for example, if the Washington Post bothered to ask anyone interviewed in this article about the influential Iraqi Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars (i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood) and the huge fight it had with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in late 2005 over the killing of innocent Shiites and those who vote in democratic elections. I'll give you one guess what made all those problems fade away. Herein lies another important lesson (credited to my colleague Jeff Stein at Congressional Quarterly): when conducting interviews about the insurgency in Iraq, ask pointed, factual questions that actually probe the depth of knowledge of your interviewee.

3.) Insh'allah, one would hope that Bush administration has recognized the importance of the Askariya mosque bombing as part of a general growing awareness of the Sunni-Shiite conflict in Iraq. But the idea that its importance has been "invented" by the White House (or anyone else for that matter) is just way off target. I, for one, have been very critical of Bush administration policies in Iraq and elsewhere, and yet, I still don't think there is any doubt of the role of the Askariya mosque bombing in the timeline of the insurgency. Maybe it makes good headlines, but this just is not a partisan issue -- it is a simple issue of looking at the facts, instead of speculation.

See also:
September 2005 - "First Signs of Daylight in Battle with Zarqawi in Iraq"
April 2006 - "Countering the 'New Dayton': A Shift in Strategy for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq."

Assaf Moghadam Joins Us As Contributing Expert

By Andrew Cochran

We're very pleased to welcome Dr. Assaf Moghadam to the CTB as our newest Contributing Expert. Dr. Moghadam is a Fellow in National Security at the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. He is also a Research Associate at the Jebsen Center for Counterterrorism Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, where he recently defended his dissertation, titled “The Globalization of Martyrdom: Al Qaeda, Salafi-Jihadism, and the Diffusion of Suicide Attacks.” Dr. Moghadam serves on the editorial board of the journal Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, and has lectured widely on terrorism issues before various national and international audiences. He is a senior adviser to the Global Justice Group, an organization representing victims of terrorism, and has served as a consultant for the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard. Dr. Moghadam was a pre-doctoral fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of a textbook, The Roots of Terrorism (New York: Chelsea House, 2006), and has published articles, op-eds, and book reviews in such outlets as Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Terrorism and Political Violence, the Political Science Quarterly, the International Herald Tribune, and the Boston Globe. He holds a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy (MALD) and a Ph.D. in international relations from The Fletcher School at Tufts University, and a BA in Political Science from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

We look forward to Dr. Moghadam's contributions and insights.

Arrest in Spain Connected to Indictment of NY Businessman (updated March 13)

By Andrew Cochran

Spanish authorities have arrested a man identified as Brian David Anderson, a Canadian apparently involved in the fraud and terrorist financing case in which Abdul Tawala Ibn Ali Alishtari, a NYC-area businessman, was indicted. I posted on that case (with the indictment) when it was announced on February 17 - a quote: "Alishtari was indicted of sending $152,000 to Pakistan and Afghanistan to support a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan by funding the purchase of night-vision goggles, and of laundering $25,000 from a New York bank through a bank in Montreal as part of the funding scheme. But he was also indicted for allegedly running a six-year-long scheme through which he and unnamed others 'fraudulently obtained millions of dollars in investments from various individuals by falsely promising high, guaranteed rates of return.'" So now we know the name of Alishtari's (alleged) Canadian assistant in the scheme, and we see a good example of international cooperation in stopping terrorist financing.

UPDATE, March 13: Today's Vancouver Sun reports additional details on the fraudulent investment schemes in which Anderson was involved and through which he raised approximately $7 million.

Part II of "MetaTerror: The Potential Use of MMORPGs by Terrorists"

By Andrew Cochran

On March 1, I posted "MetaTerror: The Potential Use of MMORPGs by Terrorists," consisting of a guest post by Roderick Jones of Concentric Solutions Int'l, about the potential use of "Second Life" digital 3-D worlds by terrorists. I invited comments to be emailed to Roderick and to me, and several of you responded with interesting comments. Additionally, the post drew attention on TerraNova, the biggest MMORPG blog, and on the Second Life Herald, the SL in-world newspaper. Today, MSNBC published a piece on Second Life on its website. Here are two of the comments, with responses from Roderick. We will continue this converation if we receive quality comments.

David Grundy, Senior Lecturer at Newcastle Business School of Northumbria University in the UK, wrote us, and you'll see Roderick's response to each of Mr. Grundy's paragraphs in italics:

"Having read your very interesting article (which was kindly linked from Terranova) I thought I’d get in touch to contribute. Certainly I think you have struck upon something very worrying, I’ve been looking at the potential for these kind of games to be used for money laundering for a little while now, in particular I was examining the MMO Project Entropia, however you comments regarding Second Life are very similar to what you could do with Project Entropia. After reading your article I had a number of questions, which I hope you don't mind commenting on:

I was wondering if, since most of the quality communication in MMO's was facilitated through VoIP communication tools such as Skype & Ventrillo etc, whether the issues regarding recruitment and message passing are to do with the MMO's themselves or the VoIP tools."

Interestingly SL has developed VoIP that is currently in Beta and from what I have heard is much better than Skype. With regard to VoIP it is the social element of SL that makes it more interesting that other platforms - there is after all the chance to bump into people by coincidence- something that doesn't exist on the web generally. This is one of the big areas where platforms such as SL are ahead of social networking sites such as MySpace.

"Also, though you are concentrating on Second Life, have you branched out yet into other MMO's? Certainly in the largest MMO by far, Warcraft, there has been many instances of "guilds" or social groupings associated by nationality & even religion, there's a very good article by Taylor in Games and Culture Journal on this issue. Certainly, given the size of something like World of Warcraft this potentially has more research potential than Second Life?"

I personally haven't looked at WoW but I have a researcher who is looking at the gold issues. SL is the most 'life-like' and therefore where I concentrate but wider research should examine all the worlds.

The Appropriate Next Steps Concerning the FBI’s National Security Letter Scandal

By Dennis Lormel

In the aftermath of the Department of Justice, Inspector General (IG) report concerning serious deficiencies in the FBI’s use of National Security Letters (NSLs), what should be done? I believe four steps must be taken. The first step is to identify the full scope of the problem. The second step is to identify and immediately implement mechanisms to eliminate the problem. The third step is to establish specific and measurable accountability. The fourth step is to ensure there is strict Congressional oversight.

Suicide attack in Morocco just the beginning

By Olivier Guitta

As I have been yelling for the past year, the Maghreb and especially Morocco is very vulnerable to terrorist attacks. It's also become one of the favorite targets of Al Qaeda since the Algerian GSPC changed its name to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.
In a way compared to Algeria and Tunisia, Morocco is the soft belly of the region. As I mentioned in a previous post just a few days ago, "In Casablanca, some agents have even started to account for all the hardware stores (potential buying place for getting explosives), the cybercafés and the apartments occupied by single people in various areas of the city."
And just last night a cybercafe in Casablanca was hit. While details remain sketchy, here is what we know: a suicide bomber detonated his vest last night in a cybercafe killing himself and injuring four. According to news services, the attack was not aimed at the cybercafe. But two terrorists carrying explosive belts entered the cybercafe to surf the web. They were connected to a terrorism-linked site and the manager wanted to prevent them to do so.
When he approached one of the two terrorists, the suicide bomber decided to activate his bomb. Its accomplice fled but was stopped by Moroccan police. The most credible explanation for what happened last night is that the two terrorists wanted to consult Internet to receive their orders for an attack against another target.

Zawahiri's Unprecedented Attack on Hamas Could Signal Spilt with Muslim Brotherhood

By Douglas Farah

Ayman Zawahiri, al Qaeda's deputy leader, issued an unprecedented and blistering attack against Hamas over the weekend, perhaps signaling a permanent rupture between the armed wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda-led jihadist movements. The translation I am using was done by Laura Mansfield.

These words will not be easy to retract, and making the dispute public will likely find an echo on the Palestinian street, frustrated by the deepening Palestinian divide.

Not only did Zawahiri, and one has to interpret that he is speaking for bin Laden and the "old guard" al Qaeda as well, disagree with Hamas' decision to join the coalition government with Fatah, he taunted and ridiculed Hamas in some of the most insulting terms possible. He takes the unprecedented step of comparing Hamas's policies to those of the hated Anwar Sadat-who members of the Muslim Brotherhood gunned down. In the end he virtually declares Hamas to be the enemy:

"The HAMAS leadership has finally joined the train of Al Sadat for humiliation and capitulation. The HAMAS leadership has sold out Palestine, and earlier it had sold out referring to Shari'ah as the source of jurisdiction. It has sold all that to be allowed to maintain one-third of the government."

"And what kind of government is this that does not have control over entry or exit, and movement between its two parts without a permit from Israel? It is a government whose prime minister is not allowed to enter his homeland and is not allowed to do so unless the Egyptians mediate between him and the Israeli defense minister. He would stay outside in the cold in front of the Rafah crossing until the Israeli minister gives approval." My full blog is here.

Russia's Hamas Problem

By Matthew Levitt

In an article that came out today in the Weekly Standard I highlight Moscow's strange relationship with Hamas. Russia has banned the Muslim Brotherhood, but not Hamas -- though Hamas openly identifies itself as the Palestinian wing of the Brotherhood. Moreover, Russia has its own reasons to be wary of Hamas - including the presence of Hamas supporters in Russia and the fact that the group expresses solidarity with Chechen fighters, including suicide bombers.

The full article is available here.

France and the UK reinforcing security measures after the defection of Iranian Vice defense minister

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah believes that Paris and London have reinforced security measures after the Israeli Mossad provided them with reliable information on the terrorist threat represented by Hezbollah cells helped by Iranian Services based in the Iranian embassies and consulates in Europe. The targets would be the Israeli diplomatic and consular representations as well as Israeli nationals and Israeli interests in Europe in general. According to British sources quoted by the newspaper, “some Lebanese Shiites living legally in Great Britain, and other clandestine ones, are being monitored since last Tuesday, whereas other Arab nationals infiltrated clandestinely in the United Kingdom were stopped and expelled”. The daily newspaper adds that “hundreds of Lebanese Shiites who own small restaurants and taxis, use their businesses to to spy and smuggle goods. From now on, they are monitored by Scotland Yard and MI-5”. According to the analysis of Mossad, quoted by the newspaper, “Hezbollah feels encircled and choked since its expulsion of South Lebanon. The disappearance of the Iranian general Asghari could represent an excuse for Hezbollah to attack Israel abroad through terrorism”. The daily newspaper believes that “ militants of Hezbollah recently entered French territory through northern neighboring countries and settled in cities with a strong Moroccan and Algerian community. Two lawyers of Maghrebi descent would have helped the Hezbollah commandos to enter French territory”.

If this latest info were to be confirmed, it would be quite worrisome since French intelligence do not have a good grasp on Shiite sleeping terror cells operating inside the country, compared to their outstanding knowledge of Sunni terrorism. Keep in mind that Hezbollah already successfully orchestrated a wave of terror attacks in France killing over a dozen and injuring 300 in public places in particular in Paris.

Is U.S. Supporting Brotherhood Activities in Syria?

By Jonathan Winer

An important article in The New Yorker by Sy Hersh describes in detail a redirection of U.S. counter-terrorism policy away from focusing on extreme Sunni forces in the Middle East in order to redirect it against Iran and Syria.

In Hersh's words:

"To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda."

There are many striking assertions in the article. One that leaps out is the suggestion that the Saudis are now supporting the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood against the Assad government in Syria, with U.S knowledge and acquiesence. As Hersh reports:

"The Syrian National Salvation Front is a coalition of opposition groups whose principal members are a faction led by Abdul Halim Khaddam, a former Syrian Vice-President who defected in 2005, and the Brotherhood. A former high-ranking C.I.A. officer told me, 'The Americans have provided both political and financial support. The Saudis are taking the lead with financial support, but there is American involvement.' He said that Khaddam, who now lives in Paris, was getting money from Saudi Arabia, with the knowledge of the White House."

The empowering of Iran regionally is merely one of any number of ugly unintended consequences with which we must now grapple as a result of the war on Iraq. At first blush, it might seem like tough pragmatic power politics for the U.S. to support aid by the Saudis to elements of the Brotherhood in Syria. But we have seen this movie before, and the last time, it did not have a happy ending.

LTTE Infiltration in South India

By Animesh Roul

Following the February 13 interception of an explosive-laden boat (with a 7 kg suicide jacket, detonators, five hand grenades, one AK-56 rifle with over hundred rounds of ammunition and liquid chemicals) belonging to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) off Kodiakarai, Southern coast of India, coastal and deep sea patrolling at the Palk Strait along the Tamil Nadu coast and in the Gulf of Mannar has been stepped up with induction of Coast Guard warships and reconnaissance aircrafts. This boat and five arrested crew have opened a can of worm later during the investigations. Following leads given by those arrested on board the seized ship, Tamil Nadu police has reportedly busted multiple hawala networks in the State. In the last three months, Tamil Nadu police have arrested over 40 people so far, including many Sri Lankan nationals in its crackdown against the illegal activities of like smuggling of arms and explosives for the LTTE. A timeline of these arrests and seizures would suffice the extent of perceived threat of LTTE’s infiltration into India and its extending support base.

Al-Qaida Escalates Campaign of Violence in Algeria

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in the Islamic Maghreb--formerly known as the GSPC--has continued to escalate its latest campaign of violence in Algeria. In the past two weeks, the group has released an unprecedented flood of communiqués claiming responsibility for a flurry of bombing attacks and armed ambushes on soldiers, policemen, and foreign workers from Russia and Canada. The group also released a new statement from its top commander Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud urging members of the Algerian security forces to abandon their posts and "repent", or else be targeted for death by the mujahideen. The latest messages from Al-Qaida in the Maghreb noticeably mimick statements issued by the now-defunct Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA) during the height of its military activity in 1995.

Click to view English translations of communiques:
- Al-Qaida Claims 18 Simultaneous and Expansive Attacks on the Infidels (3/1)
- Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud Issues Call for Repentance from Security Forces (3/4)
- Al-Qaida Claims Bomb Attack on Russians and Raids on the Infidels (3/5)

See also:
- GSPC Claims "Battle of Shaykh Abul Baraa Ahmad" (Feb. 2007)
- (January 2007) - Message from GSPC Commander in Algeria: "We Are Coming"
- Video: "The Battle of Bouchaoui": Attack on bus in Algeria carrying U.S. contractors (Dec. 2006)
- Video: "Five bombings [targeting] Algerian apostates" (Feb. 2007)
- [CTBLOG]: "GSPC in Algeria Announces New Name: Al-Qaida in the Maghreb"
- [CTBLOG]: "GSPC Claims Credit for Terror Attack on Western Contractors in Algeria"

Treasury's Message About Iran: "Be Afraid"

By Jonathan Winer

Dubai is a significant location for Under Secretary of the Treasury Stuart Levey to deliver his March 7 message to the world about the risks of doing business in Iran.

On the one hand, Dubai is literally across the water from Iran, a logical, nearby, natural trade partner for Iran on practically everything. On the other hand, Dubai is also a jurisdiction that has put into place a sophisticated anti-money laundering regime and increasingly capable financial regulatory regimes across the board, including for its capital markets. Counter terrorism cooperation between the U.S. and the government of the UAE of which Dubai is a part is extensive.

In light of close U.S.-UAE cooperation on a wide range of securitty issues, it was notable but not surprising that Under Secretary Levey's comments focused solely on the need of the private sector to adjust its behavior towards Iran. Under Secretary Levey told about 200 bankers at a Eurofinance conference in Dubai "to consider whether it is wise for your company to focus its efforts on doing business with Iran. . . The world's top financial institutions and corporations are re-evaluating their business with Iran because they are worried about the risk and their reputations. You should worry too and be especially cautious when it comes to doing business with Iran."

He went on to commend the cancellation of a planned conference in Dubai entitled "Doing Business in Iran."

The Under Secretary then made explicit what was implied in his formal remarks, stating that "those who are tempted to deal with targeted high-risk actors are put on notice: if they continue this relationship, they may be next to be targeted for action."

Will Treasury move forward with sanctions under Section 319 of the Patriot Act, freezing funds in the U.S. at a financial institution that is holding assets of a sanctioned Iranian entity outside the U.S.?

As Wednesday Addams might say, "be afraid. Be very afraid."

The Difference Between Failed and Criminal States and Why it Matters

By Douglas Farah

In academic and policy circles there is growing concern about the phenomena of failed states, fragile states, grey areas, "black holes" or any number of other names for areas that are not in control of a central government.

As the new Congressional Research Service report on North Korea shows, however, there is another phenomena that is just as troubling but is often lumped in pile of failed states-the state as a functioning criminal enterprise.

These two types of states offer different, though complimentary advantages to terrorist groups, transnational criminal organizations and non-state insurgencies and militias. I have outlined some of these themes in a recent paper for the International Assessment and Strategy Center..

Failed states, according to the Feb. 27 Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence create "terrorist safehavens and ungoverned regions that endanger the international community and its citizens."

That is certainly true, and such spaces present a particular challenge when they offer valuable natural resources. My full blog is here.

Another Iraqi Report of Baghdadi's Capture: Another Mistake (edited Mar. 10)

By Andrew Cochran

Once again, an Iraqi official has announced the capture of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq. And as I write, there hasn't been a confirmation of the capture by U.S. officials. This happened on March 4, during which I wrote, "We've seen numerous false claims by the Iraqis of a major kill, capture, or injury of important insurgents." That trial balloon popped on March 5 when it became apparent that Baghdadi hadn't been captured. The fact that today's claim came from Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi, spokesman of the Baghdad security operation, instead of from a local official as on March 4, provides only a slight measure of comfort. Now, as in every instance of a claimed major kill, injury, or capture, the key is to wait for confirmation by U.S. officials.

EDIT, March 10: The Iraqis admit the captured man isn't him - we shouldn't be surprised.

National Security Letters...An Important Investigative Tool for the FBI

By Dennis Lormel

Periodically, media stories appear articulating a sense of concern about the increased use of National Security Letters (NSLs) by the FBI since 9/11. Civil libertarians and critics of the FBI use these reports as a platform to voice apprehension about the perceived abuse of authority and infringement on personal rights and freedoms.

The Inspector General (IG), U.S. Department of Justice, has issued a report delineating audit findings identifying significant deficiencies in NSL recordkeeping and reporting processes. This determination is quite troubling and inexcusable. Disclosure of this report has obviously garnered considerable and deserved media scrutiny. However, before there is a rush to judgment and a race for juicy media sound bites about infringements of privacy and civil liberties and calls for eliminating or diminishing the program, the pertinent facts must be assessed and placed in proper context.

US-Designated Hamas Front Gets Symbolic Win in France

By Matthew Levitt

This week a French court ordered the Wiesenthal Center’s Director for International Relations in Paris, Dr. Shimon Samuel, to pay a symbolic one Euro fine in a defamation suit brought by a U.S.-designated Hamas front organization. The Comité de Bienfaisance et de Secours aux Palestiniens (CBSP – Committee for Welfare and Aid to the Palestinians) charged that it had been defamed by Dr. Samuel’s allegation that it finances terrorism and raises funds in support of the families of suicide bombers recruited by Hamas. The Paris Court acknowledged the 150 exhibits Dr. Samuels submitted “indeed constituted an impressive body of evidence,” but nonetheless issued a symbolic ruling in favor of the plaintiff. In the Wiesenthal Center’s press release, Dr. Samuel pledged to appeal the ruling.

The decision, however, appears to have more to do with the intricacies of French libel law than with the facts documenting CBSP’s ties to Hamas.

"Triangle of Terrorism:" The Web Jihadist, the Mall Bomber, and the Sailor

By Andrew Cochran

Hassan Abujihaad of Phoenix was arrested yesterday as the third member of a "Triangle of Terrorism" which has snared suspects in London and Chicago. Abujihaad is accused of providing material support for the conspiracy to kill United States nationals and of illegally providing classified information. A press release issued by the U.S. Attorney in Connecticut, who has led the investigation, provides the details of the criminal complaint and the conspiracy between Abujihaad and London-based suspect Babar Ahmad. Michelle Malkin has an excellent summary of the case.

One additional note to point out: Abujihaad allegedly communicated with Ahmad while he was an enlisted Navy man with a "Secret" security clearance after the September 11 attacks. This raises questions in my mind whether the U.S. armed forces have sufficiently reviewed and revised their procedures for granting and renewing security clearances for active duty personnel. See this Lorenzo Vidino post in 2005 discussing the Abujihaad-Ahmad connection and other infiltrations by Islamists of Western armed forces. Political correctness is the enemy here.

The third connection in this triangle came from a friendship that Abujihaad had with a Chicago-area man, Derriek Shareef, who was arrested in December for planning a series of mall bombings. There is no information in the complaints indicating that Shareef and Ahmad ever communicated with each other, but Abujihaad may have motivated Shareef eventually towards his plot, who in turn led federal agents back to Ahmad's favorite sailor. That's a lesson in how jihadists and sympathizers can influence their friends.

Here is the complaint against Abujihaad, with details of the conversations that he had with a cooperating source, and here are exhibits one through three and four through seven, both composed of the the e-mails between Abujihaad and Ahmad. Here are other past CT Blog posts on this "Triangle of Terrorism":

My post on the mall bombing case, Chicago-Area Man Arrested for Allegedly Planning Mall Grenade Attack (with the complaint against Shareef)

Evan Kohlmann with Al-Qaida Commander Ibn-ul-Khattab on Babar Ahmad/Azzam.com, about a video of Chechnyan terrorist Ibn-ul-Khattab, an old friend of bin Laden, discussing his close relationship with Ahmad and Azzam Publications.

Accused Terror Financier Boasted Of Access to U.S. Military Briefings in Iraq

By Evan Kohlmann

A federal grand jury in Missouri has issued a formal indictment against five officials from the local offices of an Islamic charity, charging them with violating U.S. trade laws and also fraudulently diverting thousands of dollars from a U.S. government development grant into a lobbying campaign aimed at thwarting a Congressional investigation into its links to terrorism. The new indictment comes directly on the heels of another decision last month from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upholding the right of the U.S. Treasury Department to freeze the financial assets of the same charity, the Islamic African Relief Agency (IARA), for allegedly helping to finance terrorism.

The individuals named in the current indictment include former IARA-USA executive director Mubarak Hamed, former board member and treasurer Ali Bagegni, vice-president for international operations Abdel Azim el-Siddiq, and IARA Middle East coordinator based in Jordan Khalid al-Sudani. A frequent visitor to Iraq, al-Sudani—whose assets have been frozen by the U.S. government since 2004—was routinely profiled in donor materials produced by IARA and its sister organization ISRA. Yet, in the months of chaos following the fall of Saddam Hussein, al-Sudani was nonetheless reportedly handed “a pass from the Americans” and even granted access to U.S. “military briefings” in Baghdad. It is not clear precisely when U.S. authorities in Iraq finally recognized al-Sudani as an alleged terrorist financier.

The now-defunct IARA—a Sudanese organization with domestic operations in Missouri, Maryland, Michigan, Texas, Florida, New York, and Oklahoma—has repeatedly denied any role in financing Al-Qaida. However, neither the charity’s directors nor lawyers have been able to explain a litany of instances in which IARA-USA and its officers have been engaged in problematic behavior. In the early 1990s, the president and vice-president of IARA were regular invited speakers at conferences organized inside the U.S. by front groups for Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). In February 1999, the Turkish government reportedly blocked IARA-USA from transferring thousands of dollars in donations to another Islamic charity that was later accused by French magistrates of playing “an important role” in the attempted terrorist attack on Los Angeles International Airport by Algerian Ahmed Ressam. Meanwhile, in December 1999—the same month that Ressam was arrested crossing the U.S.-Canadian border—Jordanian authorities detained IARA-USA regional fundraising coordinator Ziyad Khaleel during a trip to Amman on charges of serving as a “procurement agent” for Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden. Subsequent federal court proceedings against Bin Laden in New York revealed that while working as a fundraiser and webmaster for IARA-USA in Missouri, Khaleel had knowingly purchased a satellite telephone and accessories for Bin Laden’s personal use in Afghanistan.

In October 2004, three years after 9/11, the U.S. government eventually announced the formal designation of IARA as a banned terrorist entity for providing financial and logistical assistance to a host of terrorist groups, including Al-Qaida, Hamas, Al-Gama`at al-Islamiyya in Egypt, and Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya in Somalia.

See also:
- "Terrorist-linked Islamic Charities Responsible for Funneling More than $1 Million in Aid to Central Iraq." (January 2005)
- "Missouri Charity Donations Helped Finance Al-Qaida Millenium Terror Network." (November 2004)

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Claims Split From Taliban, "Suggests" Peace Talks

By Andrew Cochran

The Associated Press has released an exclusive story in which Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, longtime Afghan tribal warlord who has allied with the Taliban for years, announced that he has ended his cooperation with them and "suggested" that he could reach a peace deal with the Afghan government.

Hekmatyar has been thorn in the side of coalition efforts since he returned to Afghanistan from Iran in 2002, where he fled to in 1996 from Taliban rule. Here is a BBC profile of him as of early 2003, and here is an excerpt from a Douglas Farah post in August 2005 about him and his leading role in the renewal of the Taliban:

One of the most worrisome factors, according to sources working on the ground in Pakistan and Afghanistan, is the role played by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his Hizb-e-Islami party in the protection and arming of the Taliban and al Qaeda. Hekmatyar fled to Iran when the Taliban took over, but returned after their defeat by coalition forces and, in fine Afghani style, allied himself with his erstwhile enemies. Hekmatyar poses a serious problem in addition to his wealth, power and sympathies to the most radical elements of al Qaeda. He remains very close to the regime in Tehran that gave him asylum and now supplies him with weapons, intelligence and money.

Maybe Hekmatyar is seeing the light because he's feeling the heat. And maybe he's trying to bluff and bluster his way into another alliance in which he maintains some power. Here is a picture from the BBC profile in 2003:

Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

Yesterday's fatal crash of a Garuda airliner upon landing in Jogjakarta led several local media sources to question whether terrorism may have been involved. Already, in fact, the Indonesian government has said it will investigate whether the cause was due to anything other than mechanical failure or pilot error. Sadly, the safety record of Indonesian airliners in recent years has been abysmal (Garuda was the best of the bunch), with pilot error accounting for most incidents.

The Garuda crash aside, there have been two disturbing recent developments in Indonesia linked to terrorism.

First, residents of Jakarta in recent weeks have been plauged by a surge in phoned bomb threats purportedly from religious radicals. Two were sent to the U.S. embassy in as many weeks, both claiming to be from al-Qaeda. The British embassy, too, recevied an "al-Qaeda" threat. Other have been sent to the presidential palace, the central bank, hospitals, churches, and a mall in an ethnic Chinese part of the city. All have proven to be hoaxes. These calls appear to be the work of several different persons, one of whom has been captured (he was a native of East Java and did not apparently have any links to Jemaah Islamiyah).

The second development was a bomb that went off this past Saturday near the port on Ambon island. Ambon was the scene of prolonged communal violence between Christians and Muslims between 1999 and 2002; since then, the island has been remarkably tranquil. Thirteen persons were wounded in Saturday's incident. A second bomb was found outside an Ambon shopping center on Tuesday. Government officials believe that these incidents might be linked to January's spike in violence by Islamic radicals in Central Sulawesi. Jemaah Islamiyah was liked to the Sulawesi incidents, with JI members apparently intent on stoking a wider jihad despite several earlier failures. Thus far, the Ambon community has met the recent bombings with shock, and there are no indicatiions that hard-liners there have been gaining any ground.

FCI Can Complement CT

By Bill West

Yesterday, the Washington Times reported that Joel Brenner, the chief of the new Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, stated in an interview that America is facing substantial espionage threats from foreign intelligence services, particularly those of China, Cuba, Iran and Russia. Brenner noted that his new organization has a primary mission to revitalize the counterintelligence efforts of the US Government to confront these threats, and to also bring those counterintelligence efforts in line with the Government’s counter-terrorism mission. The article noted counterintelligence efforts by the FBI, CIA and the Defense Department; however, interestingly there was no mention of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agencies. While counter-terrorism clearly requires the involvement of DHS, there are notable aspects of counterintelligence matters wherein DHS agencies, particularly US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) may be able to play a significant role.

Islamic American Relief Agency-USA--Indictments Issued

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

Five men affiliated with the Colombia, Missouri branch of the Islamic African Relief Agency (IARA) were charged yesterday in a 33-count indictment. The charges include IIEPA violations, money laundering charges, misuse of USAID program funding and tax evasion. The main thrust of the allegations have to do with illegally funelling money to Iraq, but interestingly, the indictment also alleges that back in November 2001, an IARA representative falsely and knowingly claimed on a television interview that Ziyad Khalil, the man who by then had been publicly identified as having procured a $7500 satellite phone for Bin-Ladin, had not been affiliated with IARA. Khalil was in fact listed as representative of IARA-USA in Orlando Florida.

IARA had been designated by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control back in 2004.

Bush in Latin America: Too Little, Too Late?

By Douglas Farah

The overall agenda for Bush's belated trip to Latin America is clearly to try to counter the influence of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, Iran's new best friend in the hemisphere and weapons purchaser extraordinaire.

As my friend Jorge Castaneda writes, it is an attempt at Chavez containment that is "too little, too late."

I have recently written about the emerging terrorist threats from Latin America, and the potential for alliances among terrorist groups, drug trafficking organizations, Central American gangs and weapons merchants.

By ignoring Latin America for six years, the United States has set the stage for a strong and perhaps irreversible (at least in the short term) trend for which we will pay a steep price-the rise of a nationalist ethos that is rapidly allying with radical Islam, at least on a tactical level. Chavez, flush with oil money, can keep several such government afloat (Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Nicaragua) at least for a while. My full blog is here.

Indo-Pak Anti-Terrorism Mechanism Meets - Concludes with A Joint Statement Only!

By Animesh Roul

The first ever meeting of the Indo-Pak joint anti-terror mechanism (ATM) has ended in Islamabad on March 07. Although both countries agreed to exchange information to help investigations relating to terrorist acts and to prevent violence, the meeting achieved very little as far as information sharing, which was the concern in the first place. Pakistan’s Railway Minister Sheikh Rashid indicated that it was "irresponsible" of New Delhi to furnish a photo of a Pakistani suspect without providing essential details about him. Rashid said that he came to know from the Foreign Office that during the first meeting of the Indo-Pak Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism, Indian officials have handed over a "sketch" of a Pakistani, suspected to be behind the February 18 Samjhauta blasts.

PAKISTAN-INDIA ANTI-TERRORISM MECHANISM MEETING

Joint Statement

PR. No.70/2007 / Date: 07/03/2007

In pursuance of the decision taken during meeting between the President of Pakistan and the Prime Minister of India in Havana, Cuba on 16 September, 2006 , the first meeting of the Anti-Terrorism Mechanism was held in Islamabad on 6 th March, 2007 . The Pakistan delegation was led by Mr. Tariq Osman Hyder, Additional Secretary (UN&EC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Indian delegation was headed by Mr. K.C. Singh, Additional Secretary (IO), Ministry of External Affairs of India.

2. The two sides discussed the parameters of the Anti-Terrorism Mechanism and agreed that specific information will be exchanged through the Mechanism for:

i) Helping investigations on either side related to terrorist acts and

ii) Prevention of violence and terrorist acts in the two countries.

3. It was also agreed that while the Anti-Terrorism Mechanism would meet on a quarterly basis, any information which is required to be conveyed on priority basis would be immediately conveyed through the respective Heads of the Mechanism.

Islamabad, 07 March 2007
Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

Bangladesh Awaits Terror Executions, Fears Jihadi Resurgence

By Animesh Roul

Bangladesh President, on March 04, rejected the mercy petition put forward to save six of the seven militants of the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) who were sentenced to death for their role in November 2005 attack on Judges in Jhalakathi. The militants include JMB chief Abdur Rahman, Siddiqul Islam (notorious as Bangla Bhai of Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), Ataur Rahman Sunny, Abdul Awal, Khaled Saifullah and Iftekhar Al Mamun. Another sentenced militant is still absconding.

In Jhalkathi attack, Senior assistant judges Jagannath Pandey and Sohel Ahmed were killed and three others injured. Earlier in August 2006, the High Court upheld the trial court’s verdict which gave death penalties to the seven convicts. Again the Supreme Court has rejected the six convicts' petitions in November last year.

JMB operatives had launched many attacks on Courts and judges in 2005 to force the judiciary to adopt Islamic laws. Now, the Presidential decision has cleared all obstacles for the execution and it will be taking place in early April 2007, as per the prison code. Presently, Abdur Rahman, Bangla Bhai and Iftekhar Mamun are lodged in Kashimpur jail in Gazipur while Ataur Rahman Sunny and Abdul Awal in Dhaka Central Jail and Khaled Saifullah lodged in Rangpur jail. Authorities fear JMB attacks on jails to rescue their colleagues prompted tight security deployment at sensitive places including jails.

Widely believed to have been crushed by the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), JMB recently has begun to reorganize with secret recruitment and collection of fund drives. With top leadership behind bars, JMB has been attempting to reorganize the structure. A new Six member central committee is reportedly in place with one Moulana Sayedur Rahman Jaffar becoming the acting chief. Intelligence sources reportedly named other five members: Assaduallah Arif, Tasleem (in custody now), Faruq, Syed and Mahfuz. A Saudi connection reportedly found as far as financial and manpower efforts of JMB are concerned.

Follow the Money: Challenges and Opportunities in the Campaign to Combat Terrorism Financing

By Matthew Levitt

The U.S. government's much-discussed but little-understood effort to combat terrorism financing faces both challenges and opportunities. Terrorist groups continue to evolve, proactively working to evade existing sanctions and minimize the impact of future ones. Meanwhile, interagency efforts are being called upon to meet some of the most pressing national security threats through targeted financial measures.

Incompetent & Crooked Iraqi Police Allow Terrorists to Escape Imprisonment (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

For at least the second time in the past 5 months, some of the most dangerous terrorists have been able to escape from an Iraqi jail guarded by Iraqi police. Today, militants stormed Mosul's northwestern Badoush prison and freed over 140 prisoners, most of whom are described as "insurgents." You can bet they weren't traffic violators; they were probably key operatives in terrorist cells who were painstakingly hunted down by the U.S. military and Iraqi army. The overwhelmed police asked the U.S. military for help, but too late to stop the escaping terrorists.

(UPDATE: In a second version of the original story, Reuters reports, "Hisham al-Hamdani, a member of the Mosul provincial government, said Abu Omar al-Baghdadi took part in the attack himself." That would be the leader of the "Islamic State of Iraq," whom local officials claimed to have captured in raids with U.S. forces. See my March 4 post detailing this false claim (among many others). Iraqi officials later claimed that they actually captured two brothers of Baghdadi; if so, it would explain Baghdadi's decision to lead the raid, if he in fact led it - but who knows anymore?)

And escapes by Iraqi terrorists from the clutches of the Iraqi police have happened often, thanks to the incompetence and corruption of the Iraqi police. Saddam Hussein's nephew, who was serving a life sentence for bomb-making, escaped from prison on December 9 in northern Iraq with the help of a police officer. Later that month, Saddam's former electricity minister escaped from a Baghdad prison with the help of private security forces who used to guard him. No doubt these escapes played a role in the al-Maliki government's decision to quickly execute Saddam, before his sympathizers among the police could spring him.

The Iraqi police have been a source of frustration and failure almost from the beginning of the U.S. occupation. In mid-2005, the Defense Department's Inspector General (corrected from earlier version) issued a report on our development program and warned, "Despite recent improvements, too many recruits are marginally literate; some show up for training with criminal records or physical handicaps; and some recruits allegedly are infiltrating insurgents." The British raided the Basra police station last week after reports of torture of prisoners. Today's USA Today reports that the Interior Ministry has fired or reassigned over 10,000 employees, "including high-ranking police, who were found to have tortured prisoners, accepted bribes or had ties to militias..," with more than half of those having ties to militia groups.

With allies like the Iraqi police, who need enemies?

Small But Important Steps on Iran, Hezbollah and Argentina

By Douglas Farah

Interpol, the international police organization, has finally taken the necessary step of issuing red notices, the equivalent of international arrest warrants, against five senior Iranian and one senior Hezbollah official for the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. It was one of the worst acts of Islamist terrorism in the Western hemisphere.

Interpol has mediated a long dispute between Argentine and Iranian officials over the releasing of the red notices since Argentina requested them last year.

In the end, Interpol agreed to request the arrest of several senior Iranian intelligence officials-including the former commander of the Quds Force, the former minister of intelligence and security, the former commander of the Guardians of the Revolution and two embassy employees-along with Imad Fayez Mughniyah, the chief of Hezbollah's exterior military apparatus.

However, the Interpol ruling was not a complete victory for Argentina. The international body ruled that no red notices should be issued for former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who currently chairs Iran’s State Expediency Council and is deputy chair of the Assembly of Experts.

It also ruled against issuing a red notice for Ali Akbar Velayati, former Iranian Foreign Minister, who is currently the chief foreign policy advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Still, the rulings are important for several reasons. My full blog is here.

Jim Freis Named FinCEN Director

By Matthew Levitt

Today, Jim Freis was named Director of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the U.S. Treasury Department bureau in charge of gathering and analyzing information about financial transactions to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. Jim currently serves as the Treasury’s Deputy Assistant General Counsel, where he provides legal support to the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. I had the pleasure of working with him while I was at the Treasury and know firsthand how qualified he is for his new position.

The Maghreb, new major target for Al Qaeda

By Olivier Guitta

Since the Algerian terror group GSPC officially changed its name to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, an acceleration of attacks has occurred. For more please read here, here.
The latest two attacks in Algeria in two days killed 11: one attack on Saturday was targeting Russian contractors and the one on Sunday Algerian police force.
After the recent attack on US contractors, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has clearly decided to attack foreigners as well as locals and that's a big change.

Now, Morocco is also a very potential target, as recently confirmed by Western intelligence reports which fear specific attacks on Western interests in the country.
For the first time since the attacks of May 16, 2003 lists of sought after terrorists have been widely distributed and broadcast in the media, inviting the population “to help the security services to find where two particularly dangerous members of Al-Qaeda hide”.In the last weeks multiple arrests have occurred and the tension is more than palpable. In less than one week, at least two meetings took place between all the security services with the objective to adopt a strategy which takes into account the new regional threat of Al-Qaeda.
Priority is given to the collection of information.Security agents are going to be focused on watching the new arrival in the suburbs, the new day laborers on the construction sites… Agents in plain clothes will mix with the crowd which waits in front of certain consulates.
In Casablanca, some agents have even started to account for all the hardware stores (potential buying place for getting explosives), the cybercafés and the apartments occupied by single people in various areas of the city.
The security measures were particularly reinforced in the area of Tangier and Tétouan. Two experts in explosives would be, according to several news services, infiltrated in Morocco through the Tangier harbor. Various members of sleeper cells of Al-Qaida in Europe have also moved to the Maghreb since the merger between GSPC and Al Qaeda was sealed.
For a few days, all the cars entering or leaving Tangier have been systematically searched. Parking is from now on prohibited nearby the consulates and certain significant buildings in the city.
More than ever the Maghreb is turning into a major front on the war against radical Islam.

Inaugural Video Cybercast

By Evan Kohlmann

The inaugural edition of the Globalterroralert.com Video Cybercast is now available for download from Yahoo! Video, Google Video, and the Internet Archive. The cybercast covers an array of critical issues, including: last week's suicide bomb blast on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, American Al-Qaida operative Adam Gadahn, the recent activities of Al-Qaida militants in Algeria, Iraqi insurgent attacks on U.S. aircraft, an update on the creeping expansion of Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq", and more.

View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on Yahoo! Video
View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on Google Video
View Globalterroralert.com Cybercast on the Internet Archive

Capture of Terrorists in Iraq: Big Fish Captured or Another False Alarm? (updated Mar. 5)

By Andrew Cochran

Multinational Forces Iraq has announced the capture of over 50 terrorists in Salah ad Din province in northern Iraq: "Soldiers from Task Force 1-319 and the 1st Battalion, 1st Brigade, 4th Iraqi Army Division detained more than 50 insurgents during three days of operations focused on terrorist cells in Abu Ajeel, Wynot, and Owja near Tikrit in Salah ad Din." Forty of the terrorists were part of an IED cell, while ten others were "involved with financing and executing attacks on coalition forces."

The local Iraqi administration promptly announced that among those captured was the head of the "Islamic State of Iraq," Muharib Mohammed Abdullah, also known as Abu Omar al-Baghdadi (Bill Roggio has more on him here). But U.S. officials have not confirmed that as of this post, hours after the Iraqi announcement, so we should be increasingly skeptical until our forces issue a confirmation or denial. It shouldn't take long since our forces were on the raid.

We've seen numerous false claims by the Iraqis of a major kill, capture, or injury of important insurgents, especially with respect to al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, a.k.a. Abu Ayyub al-Masri. As recently as February 15, Iraqi officials claimed to have killed or wounded him, which was later proven false. I posted about the episode and linked to other episodes of false Iraqi claims. Evan Kohlmann posted on the official statement by the "Islamic State in Iraq" denying the claim of al-Muhajir's death, which stated, "Allah's enemies know that Shaykh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir... fights under the flag of the Amir al-Mumineen Abu Omar al-Baghdadi..."

Don't pop the bubbly yet.

UPDATE, March 5, 0735 ET: MNF-Iraq issued two press releases on Monday announcing captures of terrorists (here and here) but did not confirm or deny the Baghdadi capture. But the Iraqi interior ministry, which has issued most of the false al-Muhajir claims, now claims that one of the raids netted Abdullah Latif al-Jaburi, also known as Abu Abdullah, the #2 in the "Islamic State of Iraq." Again, no word for US officials in Iraq on this new claim. Keep the bubbly corked.

Adam Gadahn: Myths and Facts

By Evan Kohlmann

For those who have not seen it yet, I highly encourage readers to take a look at my colleague Raffi Khatchadourian's piece published in January in the New Yorker, "Azzam the American: The making of an Al Qaeda homegrown." Raffi was able to interview some folks who knew Gadahn back when he was just an odd kid from a goat farm in central California, and it is fascinating to trace the development of his personality over the years. Both by himself and by others, Gadahn is characterized by words like "loner", "socially inexperienced", and his own chosen title as the "revolting geek of mass proportions." The picture that emerges of Gadahn is of an intelligent, but arrogant armchair warrior, largely isolated from his peers, and who is desperately seeking to be heard and to be counted "in the big movement of history that's happening right now."

There are several small areas in which I would challenge Raffi's article, which I believe are worthwhile mentioning:

- The first piece of Al-Qaida propaganda narrated by Gadahn was not a speech by Usama Bin Laden in 2002, but rather the English-language version of "The Destruction of the U.S.S. Cole" produced in early 2001. You can view clips of that narration here.
- U.S. intelligence sources may well believe that Gadahn attended the Al-Farouq terrorist training camp in southern Afghanistan, but there is good reason to doubt the accuracy of that belief. During "The Destruction of the U.S.S. Cole", video footage is shown of training courses taking place both at the Al-Farouq camp and also at Tarnak Farms (near Kandahar). Gadahn incorrectly labeled all of that footage (in English) as having taken place at Al-Farouq. The two camps look virtually nothing alike, and it would be nearly impossible for someone who had been to either place to make that kind of glaring error. In other words, it is very doubtful that Gadahn was ever present either at either the Al-Farouq camp *or* at Tarnak Farms.
- Hisham Diab's ex-wife Sarah Olson makes some interesting observations about Gadahn, but it is not clear whether she was still even living with her ex-husband while he was associated with Gadahn. Her comments may be motivated more by animus towards Hisham Diab than any first-hand knowledge of Gadahn.
- Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir's yarn about spotting Adam Gadahn working as a chef at an Al-Qaida safe house in Kabul can hardly be taken very seriously. Mir is an attention-seeker and is notorious for making similar far-fetched claims, such as last September when he alleged that another most wanted American terrorist suspect, Adnan al-Shukrijumah, "has smuggled explosives and nuclear materials into the US through the Mexican border over the last two years and is hiding somewhere in America where the FBI has not been able to locate him."

Gadahn may be talented and bright, but he is also a volatile fringe character with very little personal appeal--in contrast to other more charismatic figures in Al-Qaida. His smug, overly-dramatic style may work in a limited sense for brief appearances as an English-speaking spokesman on Al-Qaida propaganda videos, but given his total lack of religious credentials or military experience, he is hardly the inspirational spark for a new generation of homegrown American terrorists.

See also: American Greases Al-Qaida Media Machine

Pakistan's Downward Spiral

By Douglas Farah

It is difficult in the best of times to get good information from the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but my sources who visit the region regularly said the situation is even worse than the dire situation already written about in numerous publications.

The question is rapidly becoming whether the forced marriage with Musharraf has reached its useful end, given his constant and not so private dalliance with the Taliban. I would argue it has, but the divorce is likely to be messy.

It seems that Musharraf's perception is that India is his main enemy, and the Afghan government, the United States and NATO are heavily tilted toward his enemy. So he has reached out to the Taliban on several fronts. In fact, the ties were never really cut. ISI had a role in protecting the Taliban leadership during the U.S.-led occupation, but were not allowed to help al Qaeda, at least not overtly.

One of the more interesting accounts is in the Asia Times, describing a more or less formal alliance with the Taliban while the Taliban separates itself from al Qaeda. My full blog is here.

Compare & Contrast: Taliban and Tamil Tiger Attacks on U.S. Officials

By Aaron Mannes

This week saw two terror attacks that apparently came close to high-level officials: the Taliban suicide bombing at Bagram Air Force Base while Vice President Cheney was staying there, and the Tamil Tiger (LTTE) mortar attack on an aircraft carrying U.S. Ambassador Robert Blake, along with the Italian and German Ambassadors. In Afghanistan, the Taliban insist that they were targeting Cheney, while U.S. officials claim that the Taliban do not have the capability. In contrast, the LTTE insists that it was not targeting the international diplomats, but the Sri Lankan government claims that they were. It is unlikely that either attack expressly targeted the officials. But the difference in the claims about the attack illustrates the differences between the two conflicts and between pre-9/11 and post-9/11 terror.

Read the full post here.

Multan Blast: Attack on "Court of Law" Intensifies in Pakistan

By Animesh Roul

Remember Bangladesh. Now it’s happening in Pakistan. Islamic Jihadi elements are increasingly targeting the Court of Law. At least three persons including two policemen were killed and as many as 10 others including a special court judge, Bashir Ahmed Bhatati, sustained injuries in a bomb blast in the eastern Pakistan city of Multan on March 02. The blast took place minutes before the judge was about to deliver his verdict on a sectarian terrorism case. Its beyond doubt that Bhatati was the main target of the blast.

This is the second attack on a judge in Pakistan in less than a fortnight. On February 17, around 17 people, including a senior civil judge Abdul Wahid Durrani, were killed and as many as 30 people injured in a powerful suicide bombing in the Quetta District Courts compound. Seven lawyers also had been killed in the suicide attack. While the latest Multan blast took place outside the Court, the Feb 17 blast took place inside the court room of Durrani. This time it was not a suicide attack, but a blast triggered by a timer device and the bomb was attached to a cycle.

Salon.com: "The Iraq insurgency for beginners"

By Evan Kohlmann

Kevin Berger over at Salon.com was gracious enough to interview me for a new piece published online today, titled "The Iraq insurgency for beginners." We discussed in great detail the infrastructure of the insurgency, how and why the U.S. is losing the battle for hearts and minds in Iraq, and questions about the much-publicized role of Iran in fomenting unrest among Iraqi Shiites.

During the interview, I reference a number of documents and sources that can be accessed below:
- "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006"
- Video of JAAMI chemical rocket attack on U.S. base in Samarra
- Communique from JAAMI responding to Al-Qaida fliers posted in Ramadi
- Saudi Prison Escapees Reported Killed in Iraq
- "Countering the 'New Dayton': A Shift in Strategy for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq."

Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, Taliban Official Arrested by Pakistan, Was Released by Afghans After 9-11 Attacks (updated Mar. 2)

By Andrew Cochran

Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, former defense minister of the Taliban government and described as the current #3 on the ladder of the Taliban's 10-member leadership council, was captured in Quetta. But this is the second time Akhund has been in custody since the liberation of Kabul from Taliban rule in 2001. Akhund actually surrendered to the local Afghan government in late 2001 or early 2002 but was promptly released as part of an "amnesty deal," leaving American officials dumbfounded and angry. Afghan officials charged in 2004 that Pakistan was allowing Akhund to cross back and forth across the border without hindrance. An October 2004 U.S. military briefing document, stored on a hard drive bought at an outdoor bazaar in Kabul, stated that he was in Pakistan.

Akhund became more publicly available for interviews and statements, which may have ultimately enabled the Pakistanis to locate and capture him. In March 2004, he told Reuters that Al Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri was not in South Waziristan. In January 2006, he called a Reuters reporter to reject an offer for peace discussions and labeled President Karzai "American puppet" who should be tried in an Islamic court. "Hamid Karzai, the American agent, has turned Afghanistan into an American base and has killed thousands of Afghans." That February, he told the Associated Press, "We will step up attacks as the weather changes. The Taliban movement is active under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar. And Taliban will fight till the last Talib is alive." After Saddam Hussein was hanged in December, Akhund defended him in an interview with a Reuters reporter: "Saddam's hanging on the day of Eid is a challenge to Muslims. His death will boost the morale of Muslims. The jihad in Iraq will be intensified and attacks on invader forces will increase. Thousands of people will rise up with hatred for America. Bush and Blair have launched a crusade against Muslims. Saddam was hanged because he was a Muslim, while slaves like Jalal Talabani in Iraq and Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan have been given power. Muslims should unite against the infidels, join the jihad and support the mujahideen because jihad has become an obligation for Muslims all over the world. God willing, both Afghanistan and Iraq will prove to be another Vietnam for America ... God willing, the invader forces in Afghanistan and Iraq will soon face defeat."

Let's hope the Paks don't do what the Afghans did, and we get a chance to question him about the whereabouts of Mullah Omar and the Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership. This is a huge capture.

(EDITED on Mar. 2 to remove the picture - source page was incorrect - picture of other mullah with same name)

UPDATE, Mar. 2: The Pakistanis also arrested two other high-ranking Taliban: Amir Khan Haqqani, Taliban commander in Zabul, and Abdul Bari, the former Governor of Helmand province. In October 2006, a New York Times reporter was shown a house in Quetta in which Haqqani allegedly resided. The U.S. chased him throughout his territory in Afghanistan for years without success.

Maybe President Bush should have sent Vice President Cheney to Tora Bora in 2001...

New Report on Drugs, Money Laundering, & Terrorism Warns on Iran

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. State Department today issued this year's edition of the International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, which describes the efforts of key countries to attack all aspects of the international drug trade in the past year. The INCSR is mandated to annually identify the countries which serve as major sources of illegal narcotics and the major money laundering countries. The INCSR also reports findings on each country's adoption of laws and regulations to prevent drug-related money laundering. Last year, I posted on the change in status of Afghanistan in the 2006 report, from a "Jurisdiction of Concern" for money laundering to a "Jurisdiction of Primary Concern."

The new report heightens the official concern over Iran's international activities and again reminds us of the links between the international drug trade and terrorism. The report moves Iran from a "Jurisdiction of Concern" to a "Jurisdiction of Primary Concern," stating, "Reportedly, a prominent Iranian banking official estimates that money laundering encompasses an estimated 20 percent of Iran's economy. There are currently no meaningful anti-money laundering (AML) controls on the Iranian banking system... According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, approximately 60 percent of Afghanistan's opium is trafficked across Iran's border... The drugs are then shipped to the international market, primarily Europe. Iran's "bonyads," or charitable religious foundations, were originally established at the time of the Iranian revolution to help the poor... Despite some limited attempts at reforming bonyads, there has been little transparency or substantive progress. Bonyads have been involved in funding terrorist organizations and serving as fronts for the procurement of nuclear capacity and prohibited weapons and technology." At today's press release announcing the new report, State Department officials told Brett Wolf, a veteran anti-money laundering analyst, that US officials do not know, with any degree of certainty, where or how Afghan drug proceeds flow.

We've posted often on the connections between the drug trade, money laundering, and terrorism:

Aaron Mannes, "A Plan Colombia for Afghanistan: Exporting Success?" on Feb. 9, 2007, and "Lacto-Terrorism: FARC Bombs a Dairy," Jan. 23, 2007

Michael Cutler, "Links Between Terrorism, Drug Trade, and Illegal Immigration Can't Be Ignored," Jan. 3, 2007

My post, "FARC Terrorist Leaders Indicted for Massive Cocaine Dealing," Mar. 22, 2006

MetaTerror: The Potential Use of MMORPGs by Terrorists

By Andrew Cochran

Co-Editor's Note: Roderick Jones, a friend of several of us here who runs the private intelligence practice of Concentric Solutions Int'l, submitted this concept paper, and I wanted to post it for your consideration. Please send your comments to him as well as to me. Andrew Cochran)

The "Metaverse" is a phrase that was first used in Neal Stephenson’s science fiction novel Snow Crash. In this science fiction novel written in 1992, the Metaverse can be accessed via public-access computer terminals where you then control your character known as an avatar. This phrase and concept has now become a reality through a number of what are known as Massive Multi-player Online Role Playing Games (MMPORGs). While some of these games, such as World of Warcraft, have a clear gaming identity the purest version of a digital 3-D world to emerge so far has been Second Life created in San Francisco by Linden Labs. Second Life allows for a high degree of flexibility within its user created content and has a currency (known as the Linden) that can be freely exchanged against the US dollar. Second Life now boasts over four million users with probably a tenth of that number being active participants. No identification is required to open a basic account, but to own ‘virtual-land’ a paypal or credit card account is required. A number of Real-Life companies have established commercial interests in Second Life in order to test new products or simply to increase the exposure of their brand. Real-Life universities and non-profits have also established learning centers within Second Life to take advantage of the dispersed learning environment.

As Second Life develops a number of factors are becoming apparent about the way in which people use the world. The first is the rapid nature of the personal connections formed within Second Life (SL) between their in-world characters (avatars). The founder of Second Life, Philp Rosedale, has speculated that the artificial barrier between people, in the form of a computer screen, actually enhances the communication process rather than hinders it. Therefore, people within Second Life are willing to interact with strangers in a way that they would not in Real Life. Communication is conducted through a form of Instant Messaging but there are plans to introduce a Skype style VOIP into the world. Therefore, Second Life is one of the more potent of the new social networking environments to have recently emerged. These in-world connections have led to the formation of a number of groups and also successful SL companies that have acted as the interface between real-life companies and SL. A company such as Reebok, will therefore hire an SL company such as Rivers Run Red, or Millions of Us, to design and maintain its in-world presence. These SL companies benefit from being able to have their staff dispersed across the world and thus are able to work collaboratively without being in the same location. This decentralization means that a wide range of skills can be applied to a project from a variety of localities.

While the makers of Second Life (Linden Labs) pursue an admirable utopian ideal these metaverse systems can potentially also be used by those seeking to pursue a radical agenda. Many of the overwhelmingly positive features of Second Life can be adapted for negative Real Life means. The rapid and potent way in which communication takes place would seem to be an ideal platform for recruitment into radical groups, especially given the age range of those engaged in the world, which is typically 18-34. The teaching capabilities of the world can clearly be adapted for use by terrorists.