Grisly New Attack in Thailand's Restive South Signals Increased Violence

By Zachary Abuza

This morning, the insurgency in southern Thailand took an ominous turn for the worse. Insurgents threw a small bomb in front of a small passenger van, disabling it. They opened the van door, and dragged all nine passengers, including four women, outside and shot them in the head execution style. All were Buddhist. This is reminiscent of Iraq or Kashmir, not Southeast Asia.

This attack is yet another escalation in a conflict that has no traction in foreign capitals and amongst the security services. More than 2,100 people have been killed in 38 months. The rate of killing in 2007, is almost four people a day, three times the average for 2006. Four people have been beheaded in 2007, alone, bringing the number to almost 40. While insurgents have stepped up their attacks on police and soldiers, civilians, monks, women (including pregnant women), and children have been killed with appalling frequency. A week ago, insurgents opened fire on a class of 5th graders, leaving one 11-year old in a coma. The following day two female college students were gunned down on their way to class. The insurgents have stepped up their attacks on economic targets, that they are hitting with more concerted effort. One of the largest rubber factories in southern Thailand was attacked on 21 February, destroying over $11 million of inventory. A Chevrolet dealership was hit a weak earlier, destroying 20 vehicles. On Chinese Lunar New Year, militants coordinated some 50 bombs and arson attacks, against predominantly ethnic Chinese targets. While IED technology has plateau-ed, 15kg ammonium nitrate bombs are now a regular occurrence. Militants have used a variety of detonators and their small arms tactics have improved.

The Thai military enjoyed a rare success last week when they came across a training camp in a remote part of Narathiwat. Five militants were killed and several small arms were recovered. Yet this was a rarity. Militants remain the capacity to attack at will and the attacks have become more frequent, more violent and more provocative. Closing in on six months after the 19 September 2006 coup, the military-backed government is powerless to stop the violence. Building on these attacks, more will soon follow.

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