Iranian Captures of British Navy Personnel: Intentional Provocation or Local Decision? (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized 15 British Navy personnel from Iraqi waters and are holding them. The British Navy personnel "had completed a ship inspection when they were accosted by Iranian vessels." (UPDATE, 2:20 pm ET: Some additional details on the capture from U.S. forces in the area and a fisherman interviewed by the AP, but nothing has changed in the status of the British personnel.)

Questions: Is this an intentional act approved by senior Iranian leadership in response to findings of the British personnel, or possibly in reaction to the upcoming U.N. vote against Iran? The official IRNA news site includes a story complaining that the White House is throwing up a last-minute obstacle to the issuance of a visa for President Ahmadinejad to take part in the U.N. Security Council meeting Saturday on the Iran sanctions resolution - could that be the reason for this action? Is this a provocation similar to the Hezbollah seizure last year of Israeli soldiers, which led the Israelis into invading Lebanon, to test how the British and Americans move military assets in advance of armed action? Is this a calculated measure due to Iranian claims that the waters are, in fact, Iranian and not Iraqi (a 1975 treaty gave the waters to Iraq, but Iran disputes Iraq's jurisdiction)? UPDATE, 3:10 pm ET: Sky News reports the Iranians have officially protested the "illegal entry into Iranian waters of military personnel." Is this a reaction to what the British personnel found on their inspection, to ensure that their findings aren't translated into additional action? Could this be an Iranian countermeasure to the capture of Iranian officers by coalition forces in Iraq? Or is this the action of a local commander, unauthorized by leadership, and due to anything from bad navigation equipment (hard to believe but it happens), one too many drinks, or a misinterpretation of orders? Recall that (a) Iranian forces did something like this in 2004 and held British servicemen for three days, then released them, and (b) local commanders' mistakes have had devastating consequences, such as the accidental American shoot-down of an Iranian civilian airliner in 1988.

The phone lines are burning up but nothing else should at this point. Interestingly, the price of crude oil, often a sound indication of international skittishness, has not shot up in reaction to the event (as of 2:20 pm ET, crude was up less than 70 cents a barrel, certainly not "skittish"). The Iranians still have not issued any information on the event on the IRNA site. Let's wait and watch.

BBC Map of Area

See Matthew Levitt's March 15 testimony and February 16 post on financial sanctions against Iran and Douglas Farah's March 15 post on Iran's appeal of Interpol arrest warrants in connection with the 1994 Buenos Aires bombings.

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