Major U.S. Military Operations Coming in Diyala

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On Friday, CBN News ran a story that I helped develop about coming major U.S. military operations in Iraq's Diyala province. An excerpt from Erick Stakelbeck's report:

The U.S. military has developed battle plans designed to clear al-Qaeda out of Iraq. High level military intelligence sources have told CBN News the offensive would target the Iraqi province of Diyala. The province is located just northeast of Baghdad, along the Iranian border. Many of al-Qaeda's forces in Baghdad moved there when the new troop surge was announced in January. Diyala is now a major launching pad for al-Qaeda suicide bombing attacks. "If you want to diminish the amount of car bombers and suicide bombers, you have to take the fight right to the source. And in this case, the source is Diyala," said CBN News consultant Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. Gartenstein-Ross says the Diyala offensive will be even bigger than the major U.S. operation in Fallujah back in 2004 -- which cleared out a city that had been a major insurgent stronghold. Military sources say the Fallujah operation directly led to the success of the 2005 Iraqi elections. Gartenstein-Ross said, "Here, the goal is going to be to drive these guys out of the country entirely." Sources say the initial plans involve three distinct strikes from three different directions. The goal is to destroy enemy training facilities and prevent al-Qaeda forces from escaping. "The insurgents are left with two choices--either to stand and fight or to retreat into Iran--at which point, they're Iran's problem," said Gartenstein-Ross. Al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, has been laying mines and positioning anti-aircraft batteries to counteract the coming offensive. One of the U.S. military's goals is to take out these anti-aircraft groups. That will likely involve heavy U.S. airpower.

A few more notes on the coming Diyala operations, from my discussions with U.S. military intelligence sources. First, when will it take place? General David Petraeus has requested another 2,500 to 3,000 troops as part of the surge. Once that request comes through, the Diyala operations will begin.

Second, the fact that the majority of al-Qaeda forces in Baghdad moved to Diyala when the surge was announced represents a significant shift in jihadist thinking. Earlier, jihadists had a kamikaze-type mentality of fighting to the death because of the glory and heavenly rewards that martyrdom entailed. However, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, articulated a different view: that it was better not to martyr oneself when there was a different course that could help the Ummah (worldwide Muslim community) more. Al-Masri compared this to Prophet Muhammad's hijra: Muhammad didn't fight the Meccans right away, but instead retreated to a place (Yathrib/Medina) where he could gather strength until he was ready to fight. Al-Masri's articulation of this view opened al-Qaeda's forces in Iraq to a higher level of pragmatism.

Third, the choice to rebase to Diyala was strategic. The Anbar province is mainly Sunni, while in Diyala the Sunnis have real fear of Shia death squads. The reason al-Qaeda decided to rebase to Diyala rather than Anbar is because they thought they would receive at least soft support from the Sunnis: because of their concerns about the Shias, the Sunnis would be less likely to challenge al-Qaeda.

Fourth, there is concern about al-Qaeda's use of chemical weapons. Insurgents have been making use of chlorine gas bombs lately, and on Friday U.S. troops discovered a chlorine cache in Baghdad as part of a larger cache of weapons. While Zarqawi had been obsessed with high-end nerve agents, al-Masri makes use of whatever is available, and whatever may be cheaply obtained in large quantities. He may use insecticides or industrial phosphagen-based agents in the future. For the Diyala operations, there is concern that al-Qaeda forces will use chlorine and may also use higher-end chemical weapons. My sources wouldn't be surprised to see World War I agents such as mustard gas (which can be produced in a pharmaceutical facility by competent hands) used against U.S. forces.

Fifth, my sources say that the pace of major U.S. military operations in Iraq is critical. In the past, after major operations, the military hasn't kept the heat up. After a major operation in Fallujah in November 2004, there were no major operations until Operation Matador in May 2005. There was then another pause in major operations until Operation Sayyid in October 2005. There were no major operations in 2006. When the military doesn't undertake major operations, it gives insurgents time to regroup and reconstitute. One paradox of counterinsurgency is that it's most important to attack when the enemy is weakest. The military has not been doing so -- but I expect this to change under Gen. Petraeus.

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