Conference Summary: "Coping With Iran: Confrontation, Containment or Engagement?"
By Andrew Cochran
Phillip Smyth, Assistant Newslinks Editor, attended an excellent conference on U.S. policy towards Iran in Washington last week sponsored by RAND Corporation. He filed this report:
Iran has long been a state sponsor of terrorism, with current support of Hezbollah and allegedly of Shi’ite extremists in Iraq. With the recent kidnaping of fifteen British servicemen in the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway, the Coping With Iran: Confrontation, Containment or Engagement conference, hosted by the RAND Corporation in Washington, DC, couldn’t have come at a more interesting time. Expert panels discussed issues such as politics inside Iran, and how a nuclear Iran may act. Also discussed were prospects for a future Israeli or American attack and the repercussions of such attacks.
Experts were fielded from the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, the Brookings Institute, the Associated Press, NY Times, and AEI, to name a few. Some notables included: Ray Takeyh, Patrick Clawson, Karim Sadjadpour, Paul Pillar, Anne Gearan David Ochmanek, Kenneth Pollack, Michael Eisenstadt, Robert Hunter, R. Nicholas Burns, Helene Cooper, David Ignatius, James Dobbins, Martin Indyk, Danielle Pletka, Flynt Leverett, Steve Simon, Hasib J. Sabbagh, and Daniel Levy.
Coming on the heels of a reported plan formulated by former secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, was the question whether the MEK was properly considered a terrorist group. Asked, whether or not, the MEK could be used to affect regime change in Tehran, Patrick Clawson with the Washington Institute on Near East Policy answered, “I don’t know if the MEK is properly classified as a terrorist organization. The evidence which is offered to the public record is all about activities that date back, in many cases, a decade ago.” Adding, “I think it would be silly for the US to use the MEK for regime change. It has very little support inside Iran and is basically a cult, which is ignoble to US values.”
Citing recent conflicts following the acquisition of nuclear weapons (such as the India-Pakistan Kargil Conflict), RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek, notd a nuclear Iran would, for a time, act more aggressively. Ochmanek stated, “we might expect activity to probe our limits, we might see terrorist tactics used more aggressively a la Khobar Towers.”
Ochmanek also covered the possibility of an American or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. “We should not expect if we attack Iran, that Iran’s responses will be discreet dependent on time and place.” He quickly ruled out the success of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities adding, “it would be a mistake to believe if an attack on Iran would increase pressure [on the Iranian government].”
Iranian responses to a US attack would depend on the perceived character of the attack. In a limited attack, “we would very likely see increases in pressure on the United States in Iraq. US naval vessels as legitimate targets of retaliation in the Persian Gulf.” Consequences following a larger attack on Iran could result in,“attacks on soft economic targets and assets in the region and abroad, attacks on oil and gas shipments, and of course attacks on our homeland as well.” It is very possible that an Iranian response on US soil could be accomplished by Hezbollah.
From the Iranian perspective, the conference was joined by Iranian Ambassador to the UN, Javad Zarif. Zarif reaffirmed that Iran did not want nuclear weapons saying, “we have an ideological restriction on the use of weapons of mass destructing, nuclear weapons do not help Iran, they have a detrimental effect to our foreign policy.” However, Zarif argued, “however Iran got it [nuclear technology and expertise], Iran has the knowhow. It cannot be wished away, it cannot be sanctioned away, it cannot be removed by pressure, and it cannot be removed by suspension.”
When questioned about the detainment of accused IRGC members by US forces in Irbil, Zarif answered, “they are diplomats and need to be released, they have been given promises from Iraqis their release will be imminent.” One can only speculate if the recent kidnaping fifteen British sailors and marines is the means through which Iran expects a release of its operatives. Only time can tell whether Iran will join the nuclear club, but according to many experts at the conference, Iran will become more aggressive.