Lessons from Madrid and London

By Lorenzo Vidino

A British court today sentenced to life in prison the five “Fertiliser Plot” men, mostly British-born and Pakistani-trained militants who were planning to blow up targets in London (including a nightclub, power plants and shopping mall) with half a ton of ammonium nitrate and other substances. As a consequence today the MI5, finally free to disclose its information without jeopardizing the case, released new information about the links (some of them already known) between the Fertiliser Plot and the 7/7 bombers.

The information is quite detailed, but, in a nutshell, the MI5 revealed that two of the 7/7 bombers, Mohammed Siddique Khan and Shehzad Tanweer, had been seen with Omar Khyam and other Fertiliser Plot members in early 2004. Khan and Tanweer were taped discussing ways to raise money through fraudulent schemes but, since no specific mention of an attack was made, the MI5 decided not to investigate them. As the Intelligence and Security Committee’s Report into the London Terrorist Attacks has already pointed out, “in light of the other priority investigations being conducted and the limitations on Security Service resources, the decisions not to give greater investigative priority to these two individuals were understandable." Given its limited resources, MI5’s decision not to divert human resources to investigate individuals that, while clearly interested in jihadi activities and intentioned in committing crimes to support them, did not constitute an immediate threat, was probably a sound one and second guessing it today is as easy as useless.

But here lies the problem: the MI5 should not have been stretched so thin. As the MI5 correctly points out, “when the fertiliser plot took place it was one of 50 networks of which the Service was aware” and the agency could not possibly start a new investigation. The MI5 was simply understaffed to deal with a domestic threat of that magnitude. And the problem is not just a British one. 3/11, the other major attack perpetrated by al Qaeda-inspired networks in Europe, is characterized by eerily similar circumstances. Jamal Zougam, one of the men currently standing trial in Madrid for his crucial role in the bombings, was also known to local intelligence services, but because of their lack personnel, no detailed investigation on him could be carried out.

In the summer of 2001, in fact, Spanish authorities had begun monitoring the conversations of several Islamic fundamentalists operating in the Madrid area, but Zougam’s telephone was tapped only briefly. When most of the members of the cell were arrested in November 2001, Zougam was not charged. Even though Yarkas, the leader of the cell, had frequently spoken with him and had often used his shop to make phone calls or to meet other members of the network, there was no evidence that Zougam had committed any crime. Zougam’s name surfaced again after the May 2003 Casablanca bombings. Mohammed Fazazi, the Beniyach brothers, and several other associates of Zougam were either arrested or investigated by Moroccan authorities cracking down on Islamic fundamentalists operating in the country. Zougam, who had returned to Madrid three weeks after the bombings, was also investigated, but there was not enough evidence to charge him. “Morocco informed the Spanish that he went to Spain and that he was a quite dangerous person. There was no evidence against him in Morocco, but they asked Spain to investigate him,” said frustrated a Moroccan official.

It was common knowledge that Zougam was involved in radical activities, but investigators lacked sufficient evidence to charge him or even to maintain a constant tap on his phone. Because the tapes of his conversations were given low priority, they were set aside for months. And since the Spanish counterterrorism authorities had only seven part-time Arabic translators, who were overwhelmed by their workload, most of the tapes were not translated at all.

Cases like those of the 7/7 bombers and of Jamal Zougam show that, in most cases, terrorists do not operate in a vacuum and have at least superficial contacts with likeminded individuals. While these contacts do not warrant an arrest (France, with its broad and often criticized "conspiracy in relation to terrorism" charge might be, in a way, an exception to this), they should be enough to raise the attention of intelligence services. Today things have improved and in both Spain and the UK the intelligence services have been given additional funds and manpower. London and Madrid have painfully taught us the importance of not underfunding intelligence services.

Military Problems on the Horizon

By Douglas Farah

I have spent time with military officials and civilian DOD officials in different parts of the country in recent weeks, and found a disturbing consensus on events, which, if correct, will have long-term implications for our national security.

The first is the broad feeling that the military is being asked to do everyone else's job in government, particularly the job of the State Department.

The public diplomacy wing of the State Department seems to have virtually disappeared (except for the little shop run by Shaha Riza, Paul Wolfowitz's girlfriend, and a shop that has a $45 million annual budget but has made no grants in 18 months of existence).

Partly because of the security conditions and partly because the army is already on the ground, many of the leaders feel they are being ordered to do things they are not trained for, have no resources for, and that take them away from crucial missions.

The second is that, as a result of the massive strain on human and physical resources of the Iraq conflict, the military and the rest of the Intelligence Community are falling further and further behind in monitoring vital events in the rest of the world.

This is not entirely the fault of this administration, of course. The hollowing out of the military and the drastic reduction of human intelligence capabilities began under Bush I, was continued under Clinton and not adequately addressed by the current administration. So there are plenty of people responsible.

One area of acute concern in the intelligence community is Venezuela and its growing orbit in Latin America, thanks largely to the close ties of Hugo Chavez to Iran. My full blog is here.

Victor Comras Testifies Today at Senate Hearing on Halliburton & Iran (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

A subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on "Halliburton and U.S. Business Ties to Iran" today at 2:00 p.m. in room 253 of the Russell Senate Office Building. Victor Comras will testify, as will (possibly) a representative of Halliburton and other witnesses (hearing information here).

UPDATE: The hearing was televised live by C-SPAN, and it will be re-broadcast during the week. You can download Victor's written testimony here, and here is an important excerpt contrasting sanctions on companies doing business with Iran with those on companies doing business with Cuba and North Korea:

"US sanctions regulations have prohibited US persons from doing business directly or indirectly with Iran since May 1995. This ban also covers brokering transactions on behalf of Iran, or engaging in any transaction with a foreign entity where there is reason to know it is intended for Iran. But what about the dealings of foreign subsidiaries of US firms with Iran? Here the guidelines are quite murky. The regulatory standards applied to foreign subsidiaries have varied over the years and under different sanctions and export control programs. The Cuba and North Korean embargos, for example, do extend to foreign subsidiaries of US companies. These sanctions were implemented under the Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) which provides broad enough authority to cover foreign subsidiaries. But, more recently imposed sanctions, including the current Iran sanctions, are based, for the most part, on Presidential Executive Orders issued pursuant to the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). The current US sanctions against Iran, imposed by an IEEPA based Executive Order, extend only to “United States persons,” and IEEPA defines “United States persons” as “any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States.” In line with this definition, the prohibitions in Executive Order 12959 of May 6, 1995, issued by President Clinton pursuant to IEEPA reach only to foreign subsidiaries “owned and controlled” by a US person, or otherwise used by a US person to “evade, avoid, or violate” any of the prohibitions set forth in the executive order. So the issue of application becomes whether or not there is real and effective management separation and true independence between the US parent and foreign subsidiary, and whether or not the foreign subsidiary is actually being used by the U.S. person to “evade or avoid” the prohibitions against its doing business with or in Iran."

Reminiscing A Bloody Weekend in the Subcontinent

By Animesh Roul

This Saturday (April 28) evening, when I glanced through the Breaking News tickers rolling on a local television channel, I found two news items clearly conveying the situation prevalent in the Subcontinent, especially in India and Pakistan, almost simultaneously. While one declared about a grenade attack on a public rally in Srinagar, India, the other claimed about a suicide attack on a similar rally in Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province. I had no doubt that this would be another bloody weekend for the terror ravaged South Asia and I did not wait, but alerted colleagues about the happenings and remain seated before the television set for more details on the just happened events.

Londonistan still alive and well

By Olivier Guitta

In fact, our British friends do not seem to have learned anything from the past.
As I show in my latest Weekly Standard piece, London remains one of the most worrisome places when it comes to Islamists.

Here is an excerpt:

A few days before the March 11 suicide bombing that rocked Casablanca, Moroccan police arrested a big fish: Saad Husseini, number two in the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), the outfit responsible for terror attacks in Casablanca in 2003 and Madrid in 2004 that killed a total of 236 people. But while Husseini sits in jail, his boss, Mohamed Guerbouzi, lives a free man in Britain, despite being sentenced in absentia to a 20-year term by a Moroccan court.

Morocco has sought Guerbouzi's extradition, but the British government refuses even to arrest him, deeming the evidence provided insufficient, according to the newspaper Aujourd'hui Le Maroc. Indeed, London still hosts a Who's Who of dangerous Islamists--Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of the main Tunisian Islamist party; Anjem Choudary, deported from Lebanon to the United Kingdom in 2005 and seen taking part in the violent protests of the Danish cartoons of Muhammad; the Saudi national Saad al-Faqih, listed as a supporter of al Qaeda by both the U.S. Treasury and the United Nations, and so on. There's a reason for the moniker the British capital earned in the 1990s (also the title of a 2006 book by the journalist Melanie Phillips)--Londonistan.

For over a decade, French authorities have been frustrated by their British counterparts' relative inaction on extremism. In the 1990s, when a French investigative magistrate went to London to interview eight suspected members of the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA), for instance, British authorities denied him access to the suspects. In 1998 and 1999, the DGSE, the French equivalent to the CIA, reportedly mounted its own surveillance of London's Finsbury Park mosque and of extremist leaders such as Abu Hamza and Abu Qatada.

To read the rest, please click here.

Who Made Cooperation With Law Enforcement "Inherently Suspect"?!

By Michael Cutler

I would be the first one to tell you that it is essential that when we consider the investigations of ethnic organized crime groups and terrorist organizations that we be careful to not paint with a broad brush and vilify all members of an ethnic group or other such manner of generalizing. It is that sort of mind-set that breeds hatred and prejudice. However, this article is absolutely outrageous! It focuses on how members of the "Pakistani community" (a term used by the author of the article) have become mistrustful of each other because they fear that their neighbors might be FBI informants, yet not a single word in the article expresses the least bit of concern that their neighbors might be terrorists or terrorist supporters! I wonder whether the author of the article would react to a citizen of Pakistan alerting authorities to a terrorist plot by considering such a patriot as a traitor!

Consider the fact that Hamid Hayat, the defendant who was convicted of providing support to a terrorist organization while his father, an ice cream truck driver who was acquitted of terror-related charges, pleaded guilty to lying about the amount of money he took out of the country, a crime in and of itself. The article makes some truly incredible assertions, for example: "Members of the Pakistani community here distrust one another almost as much as they do outsiders. Even now, residents with evidence of sudden wealth, like a new car, are immediately rumored to be on the F.B.I.’s payroll. Anything connected to the government is inherently suspect. Some people have stopped home visits by social service agencies; others have balked at writing their Social Security numbers on government documents. Some residents returning from Pakistan avoid including their Lodi addresses on their United States customs forms."

Strategic Implications of the Arrests in Saudi Arabia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

As Andrew Cochran noted, there were major arrests in Saudi Arabia today. Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia announced that "it foiled an al Qaeda-linked plot to attack oil facilities and military bases, arresting more than 170 suspects, including some trainee pilots preparing for suicide operations." In connection with these arrests, the Associated Press reports that the Saudi state TV channel Al-Ekhbariah "broadcast footage of large weapons cache discovered buried in the desert. The arms included bricks of plastic explosives, ammunition cartridges, handguns and rifles wrapped in plastic sheeting."

There are a few implications to these arrests. First, it is true that Saudi official announcements should be met with some skepticism. (One diplomat told Reuters that there seemed to be "a lot of padding" to these arrests, thus suggesting that Saudi Arabia was trying to play up its anti-terrorism efforts.) However, this plot announcement is consistent with al-Qaeda's evolving methods. When Osama bin Laden first declared war against the West, he stated that Saudi oil wealth was off limits as a military target because "it is a great Islamic wealth and a large economical power essential for the soon to be established Islamic state." But bin Laden's thinking on the subject shifted as he came to see crippling the U.S. economy as key to winning his war against the West. In a mid-December 2004 audiotape, bin Laden reversed his earlier declaration that oil was off limits, urging his followers: "Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]." It is now not uncommon for al-Qaeda and its affiliates to urge attacks on oil facilities. Most recently, in the online magazine Sawt al-Jihad (Voice of the Jihad), the terrorist faction Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula called for attacks on oil facilities throughout the world.

Second, the information that Saudi Arabia has put forward is skeletal, but the details that have been made public suggest a very serious plot. Couple the anticipated use of suicide planes with the explosives that the Saudis uncovered, and this is reminiscent of a warning that former CIA agent Robert Baer delivered in 2003, that "a single jumbo jet with a suicide bomber at the controls . . . would be enough to bring the world's oil-addicted economies to their knees" if crashed into a major offshore loading facility.

Third, these arrests continue the pattern of Saudi Arabia cracking down with ruthless efficiency when the kingdom could be affected by terrorism, but doing much less when the terrorists are hurting other countries. Saudi Arabia has killed or captured many of the major terrorists that threaten the kingdom, yet it does virtually nothing to clamp down on terrorist financing from within its borders. Members of the Golden Chain, a group of wealthy individuals from the Gulf States who have donated millions of dollars to al-Qaeda, operate openly in the kingdom; Saudi money has heavily financed the jihads in Iraq, Somalia, and elsewhere. This is evidence of a deeply mixed record where terrorism is concerned, to put it very mildly.

Tenet's CIA memoir shifts 9/11 blame to FBI

By James Gordon Meek

Co-Editor's Note: James Gordon Meek, respected reporter specializing in terrorism issues for the New York Daily News, joins us today as a Guest Author. James has been to Afghanistan and maintains contact with soldiers and officials in the area. We look forward to his contributions.

Today's New York Daily News carries a piece I wrote about former CIA Director George Tenet's new score-settling memoir, "At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA." Earlier this week, a source described for me a key chapter in the book, headlined "Missed Opportunities," where Tenet tries to shift blame for the Sept. 11 attacks away from the CIA to the FBI. I reported today:

That rankled FBI agents, who call Tenet's 575-page tome, written with former CIA spokesman Bill Harlow, "a novel."

At issue is CIA's failure to watch-list two 9/11 hijackers who were in the U.S. for 16 months before they crashed a jet into the Pentagon.

Tenet says his staff thought three FBI agents embedded in CIA's counterterrorist center had told the bureau's brass about Nawaf Alhazmi and Khalid Almihdhar. But two top FBI officials said CIA blocked the sharing of info on the Al Qaeda thugs and CIA didn't tell the FBI about them until Aug. 23, 2001.

There are more details. Read the rest of the story at the Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac blog and see how the bitter rivalry between the two spy agencies has hardly abated as they battle over who is to blame for 9/11.

The Waiting’s Over: Hamas Makes it Official

By David Schenker

Ever since the February 2007 Mecca Accords laid the groundwork for a Fatah-Hamas Palestinian national unity government, the US has largely taken a wait and see attitude. Some two weeks after Mecca, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Berlin for a Quartet meeting and told an audience that “the best thing to do is to wait until this government is formed and them to make decisions” about whether the new Government would abide by Quartet requirements (to renounce violence, recognize Israel, and honor previously signed PLO agreements with Israel).

After Fatah and Hamas reached an agreement on March 15, the Administration started to raise concerns about the new government’s program, which affirmed that “resistance is a legitimate right of the Palestinian people.” Four days after the establishment of the National Unity Government, Secretary Rice said: “So I would put the question to the Palestinian government and to its [Hamas] prime minister: Do you mean the right of resistance by violence and let's get an answer.”

Well, yesterday Washington got its answer. According to Khalil Abu Lailah, a senior Hamas official in Gaza, Hamas will resume its efforts to try and kidnap Israeli soldiers. Abu Lailah said “Hamas’s decision to kidnap Israeli soldiers is not just a threat… it is a strategic issue.”

Although his comment was rather straight forward, some ambiguity remains. There are some reports, for example, that Hamas is denying that Abu Lailah represents the view of the terrorist organization’s parliamentary bloc. Given Abu Lailah’s seniority, however, it is difficult to dismiss the significance of the statement.

In recent months, Fatah—and not Hamas—has been responsible for many of the Qassam rocket attacks and interdicted terrorist infiltrations into Israel. While not welcome, Abu Lailah’s brutally candid admission of Hamas ongoing policy to kidnap Israeli solidiers may provide useful stimulus for Washington policymakers. Now that Hamas and has clarified its policies on the Quartet requirements, it would be an appropriate time for the Administration to do so vis-à-vis the National Unity Government.

Constraining Iran the Financial Way

By Michael Jacobson

Daily Star (Beirut), April 27, 2007

For the past year, senior United States Treasury officials have traveled the world, highlighting for foreign governments and the private sector the danger that Iran's illicit activities pose to the international financial system. Treasury has lobbied foreign audiences on the need to employ targeted financial measures against entities supporting Iran's terrorist activities and its weapons of mass destruction programs. While the department's outreach has been quite successful overall, its efforts have been hindered by two serious obstacles unrelated to the substance of the case it has been making about Iranian activities.

First, no foreign finance ministry has an in-house intelligence office. As a result, the ministries generally do not receive all of the relevant intelligence on Iran that is in their governments' possession. Without this information, the finance ministries are not in a position to assess the scope of Iran's illicit financial activities, and the dangers this presents to the integrity of the global financial system. While this information may reside elsewhere in their governments, frequently only the finance ministries have the necessary expertise to analyze the financial intelligence and to fully comprehend its ramifications for the financial sector. Foreign policymakers then must decide what action to take against Iran without a complete understanding of the risks involved.

Read more here.

Al-Qaida in Algeria Denies Killing of "Deputy Commander"

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Committee in the Islamic Maghreb--formerly known as the Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)--has issued a new statement acknowledging the death of one of its prominent fighters--Samir Saioud (a.k.a. "Abu Musab")--but nonetheless insisting that Saioud was not the deputy commander of the group, as Algerian government sources have claimed. The statement identified Saioud as an Al-Qaida/GSPC military commander "and a member of the communication committee." It stated further:

"We wish to clarify the following: Yes, our brother Musab was martyred on Thursday... near the town of Si Moustafa in a clash with an apostate army patrol, and Allah granted him what he had sought [martyrdom]... [but] Brother Musab was not the deputy commander of the organization, nor was he third-in-command, nor tenth... and, praise be to Allah, the deputy commander of our organization is still alive."

Previous CT Blog Posts on Terrorist Attacks & Arrests in Saudi Arabia

By Andrew Cochran

The Saudi government announced that is has prevented a series of air attacks on oil facilities and military bases: "Saudi Arabia says it has foiled a plot by militants to carry out suicide air attacks on oil installations and military bases. Foreign nationals were among 172 terror suspects held in a series of raids, the interior ministry said on state TV... Some of the military targets were outside the kingdom..." Hopefully the Saudi government will be able to release information at the appropriate time about the alleged attackers and the final disposition of this case, and it's important to keep in mind the previous attacks and arrests inside the Kingdom. Here are selected previous CT Blog posts with information and analysis on those events:

Time for Real TF “Arrests” in Saudi Arabia, February 11, 2007, and The More Things Change..., February 12, 2007

Terrorists Attack Saudi Oil Facility, February 24, 2006, and Al-Qaida Claims Attack on Saudi Oil Refinery, February 25, 2006, and Al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia Issues Rules on Attacking Oil Facilities, March 1, 2006, and Interviews with Karim al-Mejjati and Participant in Abqaiq Refinery Attack, March 29, 2007

Al-Zawahiri Calls for Attacks on Gulf Oil Facilities, December 7, 2005, and Complete Text: "Bin Laden and the Oil Weapon" (from Al-Qaida's Sawt al-Jihad #30), February 25, 2007

The latest bombings in Algiers were to be expected; what is next?

By Olivier Guitta

While the Algerian Army killed GSPC #2 today, the future remains quite bleak for Algeria.

From The Croissant comes this story:

Chronology of the GSPC – Al Qaeda strategy:

PAST:

1- [in the nineties]: Afghan Arabs:

According to security forces sources involved in counterterrorism:

a) When Afghans Arabs were kicked out of Bosnia, some of them settled in Algeria, via Morocco

b) But about half stayed in Morocco (we do not know the exact figure), settling:

- mostly in Tangiers and Oujda

- but also in Fez, Meknes, Casba Tadla, Beni Mellel and Djebel Ouakziz, point of transit of the mercenaries of Mokhtar Ben Mokhtar, the Al Qaeda representative in the South

2- GSPC leaders and the top Moroccan terrorists meeting:

According to revelations from a terrorist captured in the West:

a) this meeting was held in Morocco

b) they discussed support to terrorism in Algeria in terms of:

- weaponry

- ammunition

- logistical means

- hideouts on both sides

3- A few days ago, US authorities had warned their citizens against traveling to Algeria

To read the rest, please click here.

The new young jihadists in Algeria

By Olivier Guitta

After the Algiers 4/11 suicide bombings, the Algerian public was shocked to learn that some among them committed these crimes. In fact, it is the first time in over a decade that a suicide bombing occurred in Algeria.

From The Croissant comes this story about the profile of these young Algerian jihadists:

I- THE NEW GENERATION OF JIHADISTS:

- composed of youngsters 17 to 25

- very tempted by terrorist action, if possible very spectacular

- on an ideological level they are totally brainwashed

- BUT they don’t have a serious Islamic culture

- a Colonel in the Algerian army operating in a GSPC area recently confided his concerns: “we are facing young boys, recently elevated to the ranks of terrorists, who do not even know how to correctly spell their name but are masters in manufacturing a remote-activated bomb with sophisticated triggers”

II- WHY RECRUITING YOUNGSTERS?

1- It is part of a strategy adapting to counterterrorism tactics i.e. recruit individuals:

a) that are not really under surveillance

b) that are very fragile

2- This strategy is already in effect with the use of women in terror networks in the Gulf, the Near East and Europe, including for suicide attacks

To read the rest, please click here.

Somali PM Claims Mogadishu Victory; Fighting Continues Throughout Country

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

After nine days of intense fighting over control of Mogadishu, transitional federal government (TFG) prime minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi claims that "the worst of the fighting against Islamists and clan gunmen was now over." The fighting has caused many citizens to flee from Mogadishu, a city of one million residents. UN relief coordinator John Holmes says that 400,000 people have fled Mogadishu, while a doctor at a Mogadishu city estimated two-thirds of the residents have left. According to human rights groups, 300 people were killed in the most recent clashes, with one thousand deaths last month. Some in Mogadishu doubt Ghedi's assessment of victory, saying there are "still reports of heavy fighting, and artillery and machine-gun fire can be heard across the city."

Even if the TFG and its Ethiopian allies have indeed prevailed in this round of fighting, there is a substantial question as to how long the victory will hold. The Islamic Courts Union-led insurgency gained vitality faster than most observers expected, and the ICU enjoys several advantages. For one thing, it has been receiving a large amount of financial support from traditional al-Qaeda backers, including members of the Golden Chain, a group of wealthy individuals from the Gulf States who have donated millions of dollars to al-Qaeda. In contrast, the State Department continues to prevent U.S. aid from reaching the TFG. Another major problem for the TFG is its dependence on Ethiopia's military. The intervention in Somalia has become a major political issue in Ethiopia, and the Ethiopian military has stayed there longer than most in the U.S. intelligence community anticipated. However, Ethiopia won't be able to sustain this intervention forever. In contrast, the ICU has been drawing support from international jihadists who aren't repelled by chaos, but drawn to it. A Tuesday suicide bombing inside an Ethiopian army base near Mogadishu is indicative of the ICU's capability around the capital.

A senior military intelligence officer has told me that the ICU's goal is to recapture Mogadishu by the end of the summer. Regardless of the past couple of weeks of fighting, that doesn't seem to be an unrealistic goal.

Three recent developments outside of Mogadishu also merit attention. In the port city of Kismayo, located 500 km south of Mogadishu, fighting that broke out between different clans forced displaced people who had been living in camps to abandon these camps and flee again. After the Marehan clan claimed victory in Kismayo, a clan spokesman declared, "We are not against the transitional government but we are part of it." The Marehan spokesman also declared that after this victory, "we are ready to work with the government." However, clan loyalties can shift rapidly, so there is a question about what the Marehan will do if things start to look bad for the TFG. Moreover, the insurgency can exploit clan hostilities by trying to draw disaffected clans into its orbit.

A second significant development is that Eritrea suspended its membership in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body charged with mediating the conflict in Somalia. In doing so, Eritrea cited "a number of repeated and irresponsible resolutions . . . that undermine regional peace and security." However, Eritrea is known to have funded, trained, and armed the insurgency -- as reported by the State Department's top Africa official, Jendayi Frazer. (I have also reported on the Eritrean troop presence in Somalia, designed to bolster the ICU.) While we cannot know Eritrea's underlying motives for withdrawing from IGAD, one must question -- given Eritrea's support for the insurgency -- whether one reason is the TFG's weakness. If it is, the Eritrean withdrawal from IGAD highlights the fact that as the TFG grows weaker, its enemies have less incentive to negotiate with it. If the TFG can be defeated, there's little incentive to make concessions in exchange for the TFG's promises. Instead, the TFG's enemies may be able to get what they want without having to make concessions.

A third development that bodes poorly for stability is a new class of supporters of the insurgency. The New York Times reports:

A whole class of opportunists -- from squatter landlords to teenage gunmen for hire to vendors of out-of-date baby formula -- have been feeding off the anarchy in Somalia for so long that they refuse to let go. They do not pay taxes, their businesses are totally unregulated, and they have skills that are not necessarily geared toward a peaceful society. In the past few weeks, some Western security officials say, these profiteers have been teaming up with clan fighters and radical Islamists to bring down Somalia’s transitional government, which is the country's 14th attempt at organizing a central authority and ending the free-for-all of the past 16 years. They are attacking government troops, smuggling in arms and using their business savvy to raise money for the insurgency. And they are surprisingly open about it. Omar Hussein Ahmed, an olive oil exporter in Mogadishu, the capital, said he and a group of fellow traders recently bought missiles to shoot at government soldiers. "Taxes are annoying," he explained.

This new class of supporters of the insurgency will further weaken the TFG, which faces a precarious situation.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

DNI's 100 day plan

By Michael Jacobson

In mid-April, nearly two months into his tenure as the nation's second Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Michael McConnell announced a "100 day plan," outlining what he hopes to accomplish during this period. McConnell stated that his plan to improve the “integration and collaboration” of the US Intelligence Community (IC) marks the “next stage in intelligence reform.”

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: close-up on Spain and Sahel

By Olivier Guitta

From The Croissant comes this story:

Terrorist M’Barek Al Jaafari:
1- February 5: arrested in Tarragon, north east of Spain
2- March 30: the Spanish government allowed his extradition to Morocco

Accusations of the Spanish government against M’barek Al Jaafari:
1- being a member of GSPC (Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat ; now called Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb [AQIM])
2- recruiting alleged terrorists:
a) to send them to Iraq for suicide bombings
b) to plan terror attacks against Morocco

AQIM / GSPC:

Spain:
1- Seems to be Europe’s “soft belly”
2- That’s why GSPC is clearly expanding quickly there

Sahel:
1- Is AQIM’s solid base close to Europe
2- That includes Mali:
a) especially in the Northern part of the country where Islamist radicalism is growing fast among local population in villages such as Kidal or Timbuktu

To read the rest, please click here.

House bill introduced to require State & Treasury cooperation on Countering Terrorism Financing

By Aaron Mannes

Three members of the House Financial Services Committee, including Chairman Barney Frank, introduced a bill to improve coordination between the major players in counterterrorism financing, particularly Treasury and State. The bill (click here for the full-text) essentially requires the departments to play nicely together. The bill's aim can be summarized in one paragraph from Sec. 3 (a) starting on page 6:

The Secretary of State and the Secretary of the Treasury shall negotiate and enter into a Memorandum of Agreement (hereafter in this section referred to as the ‘‘Agreement’’) specifying the role of each of the Secretary’s respective Department in the delivery of counterterrorism financing training and technical assistance provided to countries abroad (without regard to whether any country is designated as a priority country or a nonpriority country by the Terrorist Financing Working Group).

A Disturbing New Look at the Origins of Suicide Bombers

By Douglas Farah

There is no doubt that suicide bombers, routinely used now in the Islamist struggles in Afghanistan, Iraq, the West Bank and elsewhere, have radically changed the face of modern warfare.

Figuring out what moves people to self-select into the group, almost always men in the current context, who are willing to kill themselves in the struggle, is of primary importance.

Obtaining answers is both as a military imperative and a broader necessity to understand the driving forces of _jihad_.

On NPR today, there is a fascinating story about research into a single neighborhood in the Moroccan village of Tetuan that has produced more than 30 suicide bombers, funneled to different parts of the world, primarily Iraq and earlier, to Spain.

The reporting provides not just insights into why these people kill themselves, but a disturbing look at the dangers of the growing criminal-terrorist nexus in different parts of the world. This includes groups specializing in crossing the U.S. border.

As researcher Scott Atran, a senior fellow at City University of New York's Center on Terrorism notes, while there are tens of millions of people who sympathize with the concept of _jihad_, there are relatively few who actually carry out violent acts. My full blog is here.

U.S. House Hearings on Plan Colombia

By Aaron Mannes

This afternoon the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere will hold hearings on “U.S. Colombia Relations.” For some time Plan Colombia, the multi-billion dollar U.S. aid package to Colombia to aid its fight against narco-terrorists, was seen as a relative success. There is little question that public safety in much of Colombia (particularly the cities) has improved substantially. However, there is a growing scandal alleging ties between the para-militaries and government security forces. The scandal is beginning to reach all the way up to President Alvaro Uribe (particularly from his time as a provincial governor) and dent his previously high popularity. Several of his close allies have been implicated. Army chief of staff, Mario Montoya has also been accused of collaborating with the paramilitaries – who have, unquestionably – been responsible for massive atrocities.

Colombia’s scandal is also reaching Washington. Al Gore snubbed Colombia’s President Uribe by dropping out of an environmental conference in Miami because Uribe was also attending. More substantially, Sen. Pat Leahy has put a hold on $55 million in military aid to Colombia (after dissenting with a State Department decision to certify that Colombia’s human rights record is improving.)

For in-depth, responsible criticism of Plan Colombia see the Center for International Policy’s Colombia Program blog. For a more positive take on Plan Colombia see this op-ed by former asst. Secretary of State for international narcotics and law enforcement Robert Charles.

Much of the discussion in Washington has been about the paramilitary scandal. The paramilitaries (who are officially disbanded under a demobilization scheme – but continue to deal in drugs and violence in some parts of the country) are unquestionably loathsome. But this discussion ignores the primary threat to the Colombian state, the FARC. The FARC has been relatively inactive over the last few years. Under Uribe, the Colombian government began a massive campaign against the FARC and uprooted it out of a sanctuary (the size of Switzerland) it had been granted under a peace process. The FARC, in accord with its Maoist doctrine, did not confront state power directly. Instead, they went to ground in the vast parts of Colombia that are not under state control. While their power has been reduced they remain a formidable and well-funded organization. According to this analysis the recent car-bombing of a Cali police station is one of many ominous sign that the FARC is preparing to renew hostilities – possibly to disrupt the October 2007 local elections.

The FARC could face a favorable international situation in re-launching hostilities. The leftist governments in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia have a certain sympathy for the FARC. It should be emphasized that this sympathy does not necessarily translate into direct support. But these leftist populist regimes are unlikely to consider border security a priority (and even less so if the U.S. insists on it) thus allowing the FARC greater freedom of action. Strains in the US-Colombia relationship, as well as international focus on the Colombian government’s human rights failings will reduce support for the Colombian government’s efforts to counter a FARC offensive.

Colombia’s past needs to be addressed and Plan Colombia could definitely be improved. More focus on economic and social welfare along with improving the rule of law, while moving away from strictly counter-narcotics strategies (which have not significantly reduced the drug supply in the U.S.) might be considered.

While the United States should not be writing blank checks and or turning a blind eye to human rights violations – it is also essential to remain engaged and supportive of the Colombian government’s efforts to establish seguridad y democracia.

"Islam & Democracy" Seminars This Week

By Andrew Cochran

Two seminars this week on the topic of Islam and democracy caught my attention. The first, titled "Islam and Democracy: Promoting Dialogue and Political Participation among Muslims in Western Societies," will be held at 2200 Rayburn House Building on Capitol Hill on Wednesday at 4 pm. Participants include Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim Congressman; the Hon. Naser Khader, Muslim Member of the Danish Parliament; and the Hon. Karen Hughes, Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs (invited). The second, titled "Islam in Democratic Societies," will be at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in Boston this Friday. Lorenzo Vidino is the conference coordinator, and Zeyno Baran is one of the distinguished speakers with others including Zuhdi Jasser, Mateen Siddiqui, Naser Khader (again), and Irshad Manjii.

Daily Standard: Spinning the Fighting in South Waziristan

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In late March Mullah Nazir, a tribal leader in South Waziristan who is aligned with the Taliban, launched attacks on foreign militants from Uzbekistan who were in the region. Predictably, the Pakistani government tried to portray this development as a victory for the failed Waziristan Accords: Pakistani interior minister Aftab Sherpao said the bloodshed was "the result of the agreements the government made with tribal people in which they pledged to expel foreigners and now they are doing it." Just as predictably, many Western journalists echoed Islamabad's spin, reporting that the tribes were trying to eject foreign militants from Pakistani soil.

But Pakistan's portrayal does not reflect the reality of the situation. In a new article in the Daily Standard, Bill Roggio and I set the record straight. An excerpt:

Islamabad's spin is implausible and, in fact, dangerous. This is an internal conflict fueled by tribal rivalries, the Uzbeks' murder of al Qaeda agents, a disagreement in strategic priorities, and land. It was the combination of these factors that gave Mullah Nazir the impetus to fight.

The first of these factors, an inter-Taliban power struggle, centers on the rivalry between Mullah Nazir and a Taliban commander known as Mullah Omar (but not the Mullah Omar). The two have been at odds since Mullah Nazir replaced Mullah Omar as head of the Ahmadzai tribe--both because of Mullah Nazir's usurpation and also preexisting clan rivalries.

The rivalry between the two men was inflamed when the Uzbeks, with whom Mullah Omar had aligned himself, killed Arab al Qaeda operative Saiful Asad. The Uzbeks also reportedly killed Sheikh Asadullah, a Saudi who was described as "the moneybags in the entire tribal belt," although it isn't known when this killing took place. Mullah Nazir was incensed by these killings, as both men were under his care when their lives were taken.

A third factor is that the Uzbeks had different strategic priorities than the local Taliban and their tribal allies. While the tribes are eager to engage U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the Uzbeks prefer to fight the "near enemy" rather than the "far enemy": they want to engage the Pakistani government. This worried the Taliban, backed by Mullah Nazir, because attacks on the government could draw unwanted attention. They figured that Pakistan's government might only turn a blind eye to jihadist violence if that violence focused outward on Afghanistan, Kashmir, or India--not on Pakistan itself.

You can read the whole article here.

America At A Crossroads - Caution Needed When Dealing With the Muslim Brotherhood

By Victor Comras

PBS’s week-long “America at a Crossroads” series presented many of the issues and dilemmas now facing America in the War on Terrorism. The series got mixed reviews on content and temper. There were criticisms about its objectivity from both the left and right. But, despite its flaws, the series provided viewers with a heavy dose of food for thought. Hopefully, it will help stimulate discussion and debate among a growing number of Americans, and perhaps even lead to more close scrutiny and questioning of aspects of Administration policy.

I intend to write several blogs on issues discussed in the series. I had the opportunity to participate in one of the films, The Brotherhood, so I shall begin there.

The film is strong as journalism, but weaker as analysis. The documentary misses the main question – what is the Muslim Brotherhood and what do its members want and believe. Answering these crucial questions is critical to understanding the Brotherhood and to formulating appropriate policies to deal with it.

Mark Hosenball and Michael Isikoff are both top notch investigative reporters, and that sets the tone for the film. Using investigative reporting techniques they focus on four individual members of the Brotherhood, seeking to expose differences between the activities of its various members and how the organization now seeks to portray itself. One protagonist, Kemal Helbawy, represents the image the Muslim Brotherhood now seeks to secure – that it is a benevolent spiritual-based organization that seeks to promote Islamic values and Muslim spiritually, morality, and welfare through peaceful and democratic means. Kemal, who lectures regularly for the Muslim Brotherhood was refused entry last year into the United States.

The other characters in the film represent various malevolent aspects of the Brotherhood. Like Kemal, they also seek to portray the Brotherhood and themselves as moderates, seeking to pursue their objectives through legitimate channels. But, the methods they have used are far from legitimate. Mamoun Darkazanli, a Syrian exile to Germany maintains a normal business façade, but is linked to the 1998 embassy bombings and to several of the 9/11 hijackers; Abdulrahman Alamoudi, an American resident, passed himself off as a promoter of pluralism while fronting for radical fundamentalist groups. He is now serving a 23 year prison sentence in the United States after pleading guilty to racketeering charges rather than stand trial on terrorism financing. And then there is Youssef Nada, one of the original old-line Muslim Brotherhood members, who served, and perhaps continues to serve, as a principal banker, financial backer, and money-raiser for the Muslim Brotherhood. He has also been linked to financing al Qaeda and Hamas.

The film devotes considerable footage to Nada, who represents the sophistication of Muslim Brotherhood leaders. Nada continues to maintain his innocence when it comes to supporting terrorism. He tells the reporters that he abhors terrorism, but provides justifications for Hamas and Iraqi Insurgent suicide bombers targetting innocent civilians. The Swiss sought to prosecute Nada for terrorism financing, but were unable to obtain the documentation necessary from the Saudi government, or other supporting evidence from the United States. So, Nada continues to operate freely from his home in Campione and to flaunt the UN sanctions against him.

Frightening tales of two young Tamil Tigers deserters

By Olivier Guitta

The terror group, the Tamil Tigers, does not get much publicity but that does not mean they are not a dangerous orgaization.
Recently European security services clamped down on European-based operatives who among other things organized the racketeering of the Sri Lankan community.

This below is an interesting story from The Croissant on this organization.

Frightening tales of two young Tamil Tigers deserters

BACKGROUND: SRI LANKA:

1- South East Asian country populated at 75% by Sinhalese
2- Tamils are fighting for the independence of the Northeast of Sri Lanka

WAR:

1- Facts:
a) Tamil Tigers [TT]: separatist organization; one of the most brutal terrorist groups in the world
b) TT and Sinhalese [government] have been fighting since 1972
c) at least 60,000 dead, including more than 4,000 since just 2005

2- Exploitation of kids i.e. child soldiers:
a) It has been denounced by NGOs and the UN
b) Done by both parties:
especially the TT
government: is also using youngsters under the banner of the Karuna group which allied with the Sri Lankan Army in 2004 after splitting from the TT

TESTIMONIES:
1- Two rare and very dangerous testimonies because:
a- TT do not appreciate revelations about the way they operate internally
b- The Karuna faction targets TT members

To read the rest, please click here.

Shell Companies…Facilitation Tool for Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

By Dennis Lormel

In January 2007, I was contacted by Elizabeth MacDonald from Forbes magazine concerning an article she was researching. Elizabeth inquired if I was aware of any terrorist financing cases that involved use of domestic shell companies. Unfortunately, without hesitation, the answer was yes. The most notable case was the Hezbollah cigarette smuggling case known as Operation Smokescreen in North Carolina in the late 1990s. The example I provided to MacDonald was from an ongoing FBI investigation. The case focused on a variety of bank frauds, to include mortgage fraud. The investigation centered on Shawqi Omar, who was arrested in Iraq in 2004. Shawqi Omar was a lieutenant to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Five of Omar’s relatives, including two of his brothers Sharif and Bassam, were subsequently indicted and arrested in 2006 for perpetrating a series of bank fraud and money laundering schemes. Shell companies were used to facilitate the crimes. Proceeds from the frauds were laundered from the United States to Jordan. From Jordan, it was alleged that funds were withdrawn in cash and couriered to Iraq to Shawqi Omar.

What is Missing from Chertoff's "War" Assessment

By Douglas Farah

It was heartening to see Homeland Security secretary Michael Chertoff clear-eyed view of al Qaeda's objectives.. The administration has often not articulated such a vision with such clarity.

But there is a disturbing absence in his analysis, one that has been largely absent since David Aufhauser left the Treasury Department three years ago. That is the support role that the Islamists, wahhabists and salafists, along with the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups, play in this conflict.

Chertoff is correct is saying that "Today's extreme Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda do not merely seek political revolution in their own countries. They aspire to dominate all countries. Their goal is a totalitarian, theocratic empire to be achieved by waging perpetual war on soldiers and civilians alike."

All of that statement is true of the Saudi leadership, the Muslim Brotherhood, CAIR, the Muslim Student Association and the Qaradawi-led groups across Europe that share the Ikhwan theology.

The jihadists that Chertoff notes are also bent on getting weapons of mass destruction, the ultimate goal of these groups is no different from the "moderate" groups that seek political legitimacy here and in Europe. There is a clear strategic difference, of course. But one does not negate the other. My full blog is here.

Will Congress Meet With Lebanese Parliamentarians Allied With Hezbollah?

By Andrew Cochran

Information from Lebanon indicates that members of the Lebanese Parliament are coming to Washington this week to meet with Congressmen, and among the visitors will Ghassan Moukheiber and Ibrahim Kenaan, both supporters of Michel Aoun. But over a year ago, Aoun signed a peace treaty with Hezbollah, which in effect makaes Aoun a "material supporter" of the Sh'ite terrorist group. As I reported last year, "The MoA refers to Israel as 'enemy territory' from which Lebanese should return (paragraph 6); it calls for renewed relations with Syria and the Palestinians without expressing any concern for their terrorist activities in the region (paragraphs 7 & 8), and doesn't limit Hezbollah from possessing and using its arms in any way (paragraph 9). Nasrallah seemed to support Aoun's bid for president, 'We see in Aoun a serious and competent candidate who enjoys wide popularity.'" That would be Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's Secretary General. See the full text of that "Memorandum of Understanding".

I don't know who chose the participants for the trip, but I fear that the U.S. Congress has been unwittingly set up to meet with Hezbollah's allies who seek continued dominance over Lebanon and Israel's destruction. It will be seen as a propaganda victory for Hez and Aoun, even if the Congressmen don't realize whom they are welcoming to the shrine of democracy. Some meeting....

The Deteriorating Panorama in Africa and the World

By Douglas Farah

As Islamists continue their offensive in Somalia, there are several other key indicators that the violent wahhabist movement across Africa is growing.

The deteriorating situation in Somalia and Africa is symptomatic of other setbacks in fighting the Islamists on numerous fronts. Taken together, the recent developments of 2007 show that:

1) Neither Sunni nor Shi'ite terrorist networks are suffering from any shortage of funds or recruits, but rather seem awash in resources,

2) the increased decentralization of al Qaeda-related groups is a strategy that is paying off well for the salafist movements, which are slowly establishing viable networks in areas where not long ago they had none, and

3) that Islamists have begun a well-financed and sophisticated propaganda offensive, coupled with a political strategy of appearing to soften on some issues (i.e. Sudan) aimed at presenting a negotiating partner(s) to the West in an effort to forestall decisive action. So far it has been remarkably successful. My full blog is here.

The Investigation of the Virginia Tech Shootings

By Dennis Lormel

Why is it that a number of media representatives reporting on the Virginia Tech shootings continue to work the blame angle? It amazes me that whenever there is a tragic incident like Monday or 9/11, we have to rush to judgment to blame an agency, institution or law enforcement for the horrific events. We live in a great country, with tremendous liberties and freedoms. In a free and open society, we are at extreme risk and vulnerable to acts of terrorism, hate and misguided violence such as we witnessed on Monday in Blacksburg.

The underlying problem in this instance isn’t the administration at Virginia Tech, law enforcement, or mental health officials. Cho Seung Hui was a seriously troubled individual long before he came to Virginia Tech. The problem emanates not from Virgina Tech but from systemic weaknesses and faults attributed to our society.

Virginia Governor Timothy Kaine is to be commended. He understands the scope of the problem. In creating an independent panel to review the situation and in announcing that the inquiry was designed not to affix blame for Monday’s catastrophe but to understand its causes and put in place safeguards to reduce the chances of a recurrence, Governor Kaine has ensured that meaningful steps have been taken to move forward. It’s critically important to identify all relevant issues, potential solutions and to make meaningful recommendations to minimize systemic vulnerabilities.

It would be nice if those media members still playing the blame game could comprehend the meaning of Governor Kaine’s mandate for the independent inquiry. Instead of looking for the right person or entity to blame, let’s look to identify the multitude of systemic flaws that enabled a disturbed young man to commit such a heinous act.

Syrian Elections

By David Schenker

Although its getting little press in the West, Syrian parliamentary elections are scheduled for this Sunday. Given the brutal authoritarian nature of the regime, no one is expecting any surprises. I've written a piece about the elections, and the US policy in the Weekly Standard Online (The Daily Standard).

Scores of young Saudis are joining the ranks of the jihadists in Iraq

By Olivier Guitta

Among the ranks of foreigners joining the jihadists in Iraq, the Saudis are still leading the pack followed by The Maghrebis: mostly Moroccans and Algerians.

From The Croissant comes this story on the Saudi jihadists in Iraq:

Scores of young Saudis are joining the ranks of the jihadists in Iraq

I- A lot of these young Saudis do so without the knowledge of their families:

1- their families:

a) are only informed upon the death of their sibling

b) at that time, preachers come to their home:

- to underline the virtues of jihad

- to confirm their son's martyrdom and his place in paradise

2- who are these youngsters?

- they come especially from the Al Jouf region

- they are between 18 and 25

3- how do they get to Iraq?

- they cross the Saudi-Jordanian border at Al Haditha

- then they travel to Syria

- then they travel to Iraq with the aid of professional fixers who charge them anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 riyals [about $1,333 to $2,666]

To read the rest, please click here.

Europeans more supportive on Iran

By Olivier Guitta

Two stories from The Croissant suggest a change of heart from our European allies on Iran:

- First, according to a recent poll, 52% of Europeans are FOR a military intervention to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Second, from Al Sharq Al Awsat, an interesting analysis on Iran from a top French official

QUOTING A TOP FRENCH OFFICIAL:

I- War against Iran:

a) This official called for Iran to take seriously the possibility before the end of the year of a military strike against its nuclear facilities

b) Quoting a Gulf foreign minister: there is a 60% chance of a war by the end of the year

c) Any new Iranian provocation, whether nuclear or not, could speed up a military strike especially if Tehran accelerates his uranium enrichment

d) This official also warned Iran:

Iran is misled if it thinks that because of difficulties in Iraq, the US Army would not use military force against Iran.

To read the rest, please click here.

Now China Points Finger at Pakistan on Terror Camps!

By Animesh Roul

After sentencing a Canadian citizen, Huseyin Celil for allegedly participating in separatist and terrorist activities in western Xinjiang province, China took another surprising dig at long time ally Pakistan. China reportedly said that East Turkestan (Uyghur) Islamic terrorists operating on Pakistan’s soil and trained in special camps in its territory. This is the first time Beijing administration charged Pakistan for harboring anti-China elements in its soil. The revelation came in a court document in the trial of jailed Canadian in which it was mentioned that Celil joined the East Turkistan Liberation Organisation (ETLO) way back in 1997 and acted a senior instructor in Kyrgyzstan. As per the document Celil allegedly recruited people and sent them to various training camps on the Pamir Plateau in Pakistan territory. ETLO's prime objective is to carve an independent East Turkestan by uniting parts of China and Kyrgyzstan.

In a major effort to clampdown terror elements, on January 5, 2007 Chinese security forces raided another outfit's, Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), hideouts on the Chinese side of the Pamir plateau and reportedly killed at least 18 and arrested as many terrorists.

Lorenzo Vidino & Victor Comras Participate in PBS's "The Brotherhood"

By Andrew Cochran

Tonight, in the last segment of the controversial PBS "America at a Crossroads" series, Lorenzo Vidino and Victor Comras join other experts for a critical view of the Muslim Brotherhood. "The Brotherhood" includes interviews of key MB figures, including convicted terrorist supporter Abdulrahman Alamoudi and designated terrorist financier Youssef Nada. Here are just a few of the many past CTB posts about the terrorist background of each of those men:

U.S. Treasury: Former White House Guest "Had a Close Relationship with Al-Qaida"

The American Islamic Leaders' "Fatwa" is Bogus

Youssef Nada {of Al Taqwa Fame} On the Offensive Again: Seeking Damages From Swiss Government

"The Little Explored Offshore Empire of the International Muslim Brotherhood"

British Minister Fails the War of Ideas

By Walid Phares

In a speech on British policy on Terrorism, the international development secretary of the UK failed the basic understanding of the ongoing War on Terror. M Hilary Benn, a candidate for Labor Party deputy leadership said "President George Bush's concept of a "war on terror" has given strength to terrorists by making them feel part of something bigger."

In a New York meeting organized by the Center on International Cooperation think-tank, Mr. Benn advocated the pre 9/11 idea that Terrorists are reacting to foreign policies and that they function not on the basis of ideologies but on the grounds of economic injustices. Thus in view of the fact that Mr. Benn is a member of a Government involved in the War on Terror, both inside Britain and overseas, it is very troubling to see that in the heart of Western democracies, a deep ignorance of historical and ideological facts still exists, even among leaders charged with the global defense of democracy. Following are my comments on Minister Benn's remarks:

Getting Tough With Iran Requires Ending Everyday Business

By Andrew Cochran

Two U.S. House subcommittees held a joint hearing yesterday on financial sanctions against regimes which support terrorism and WMD proliferation (scroll down to that hearing for all statements and testimony). Victor Comras was one of a panel of non-governmental experts who testified, and he presented his testimony on the weakness of the U.N.'s recent Iran sanctions package. "The sanctions measures so far adopted by the Security Council have already proved insufficient to motivate Iran to curtail its enrichment activities, and have led, in fact, to its acceleration. Rather than demonstrate the international community’s commitment to forcing Iran to halt its nuclear arms program, they have conveyed the sense that key countries lack the political will necessary to face up to Iran’s challenge to non proliferation norms." Victor emphasized the need for European countries to apply pressure on Iran, which they have yet to do. In his view, European sanctions should particularly target (1) Iran's need for capital improvement and investment, (2) its growing general commercial sector, (3) its state owned banks (which are already notorious for their role in international ML/TF and corrupt practices), and (4) the IRGC and leading political Mullahs.

Both Democrats and Republicans were critical of the lack of measures against Iran, and of the Administration for not invoking all provisions of the Iran Sanctions Act, i.e., we are still allowing $170 million per year of imports from Iranian companies of non-energy items. Both parties will push for new divestment and "terror-free investing" legislation aimed against companies investing in or doing business with states supporting terrorism and WMD proliferation. Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman testified that the terror-free Missouri Investment Trust has outperformed the benchmark for core international investment funds since she initiated the new strategy seven months ago.

The Salafi-Jihadist Context of the Iraq Bombings

By Assaf Moghadam

A string of suicide attacks on April 18 and April 19, including what appears to be the single most deadly bombing in Baghdad since the beginning of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, highlights the lack of security in Iraq and the ongoing rift between Shia and Sunnis in Iraq. Together, Wednesday's and Thursday's bombings killed some two hundred people, mostly Shia. The attacks were most likely carried out by Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and can be seen in the context of Salafi-Jihadism—the ideology guiding AQI, and indeed most of the groups carrying out suicide bombings in Iraq.

Wednesday’s bombings included a suicide attack at the Sadriya market, one of Baghdad’s signature institutions, which killed some 140 people and wounded another estimated 150. The death toll surpassed the previous sad record of 130 fatalities in a single bombing—a bombing that had ironically occurred at the same market in February.

Most suicide attacks in Iraq are perpetrated by groups that adhere to a strict Salafi-Jihadist doctrine of Islam. These include Ansar al-Islam, Ansar al-Sunnah Army, the Victorious Sect, Jaish-e-Muhammad, Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jamaah Army, and the Conquest Army, among others. AQI is the quintessential Salafi-Jihadist group active in Iraq. Its goals, which are paradigmatic for those of other Salafi-Jihadist organizations, were summarized in an online magazine in March 2005 by a commander of the group, Abu Maysara. As cited by MEMRI, these goals include the renewal of pure monotheism; waging jihad for the sake of Allah; coming to the aid of the Muslims wherever they are; reclaiming Muslim dignity; and finally, “to re-establish the Rightly-Guided Caliphate in accordance with the Prophet’s example, because ‘whoever dies without having sworn allegiance to a Muslim ruler dies as an unbeliever.’”

The Wrong Decision on Sudan

By Douglas Farah

Yesterday President Bush was to unveil the long-anticipated "Plan B" for sanctioning the Sudanese regime for the genocide in Darfur. But at the last minute Bush accepted a plea to wait. The Sudanese government had again asked for more time to allow U.N. peacekeepers to arrive.

It is a trick that the Sudanese have successfully used for four years to avoid ending the slaughter of civilians, with the Islamist government's blessing, guidance and support. It simply means more people will die while the regime of Lt. Gen. Omar Hassan al-Bashir drags its feet, backtracks, promises, hems, haws and generally buys several more months. Sooner or later, if he can drag it out long enough, there will be no one left to ethnically cleanse, and then peacekeepers can disembark without opposition.

After at least 450,000 killed and 2 million displaced, why does anyone take Bashir's word on anything? He hasn't done anything to lessen the slaughter since the carnage began. He has repeatedly promised, then retracted, support of peacekeepers.

"The brutal treatment of innocent civilians in Darfur is unacceptable," Bush said. "The status quo must not continue." And yet it is entirely acceptable. For a few weeks, then months, then years.

The irony is that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon asked the sanctions be postponed, even as he was presented with concrete evidence the Bashir government was illegally flying weapons to its forces and the _janjaweed_ in Darfur. My full blog is here.

Brazilian Counterterrorism Efforts

By Matthew Levitt

In March, Brazilian authorities drafted a new antiterrorism law instituting stiff penalties for a variety of violent acts committed by both individuals and organizations. The new legislation, expected to pass Brazil's congress in a modified form, will likely be used to target criminal gangs from Brazil's indigent favela neighborhoods, not Middle Eastern terrorist groups operating in the Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA). Brazil denies that illegal terrorist activities are being conducted in the TBA, and it does not regard groups like Hizballah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. Much of the legal foundation needed to successfully combat international terrorism is already in place in Brazil, but the government has not demonstrated the will to confront the problem.

The full article, by David Jacobson and myself, is available here.

Thousands Of Iraqi “Refugees” May Be Coming To US

By Bill West

On April 18, the Washington Times reported the US Government has agreed to “accept” up to twenty-five thousand Iraqi “refugees” who fled Iraq as a result of the war there. The report quoted Ellen Sauerbrey, assistant secretary of state for population, refugees and migration as saying, "It's fair to say that, if we get the referrals [from the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees], we could resettle up to 25,000 Iraqi refugees within the president's determination this year."

Apart from the questionable legitimacy of accepting large numbers of “refugees” from a supposed democracy the US has essentially established, helping genuine refugees is, of course, noble and important. Making certain those accepted for admission into the United States under any conditions, including refugee status, are not a threat to America is the most important function the Government can and should do in its immigration related operations. Unfortunately, the Government has not performed well in such matters in the past. While surely Federal bureaucrats from DHS and the State Department will assure us that “all necessary measures” will be employed to insure that no persons who are security threats will be allowed to enter the US as a result of any refugee processing, as this report cites, it is likely that process will not differ much from prior similar efforts.

Michael Jacobson Joins Us As Contributing Expert

By Andrew Cochran

Michael Jacobson, senior fellow at The Washington Institute''s Stein Program on Terrorism, Intelligence, and Policy, joins us as a Contributing Expert today to post on sanctions and financial measures to combat national security threats and on other issues. From June 2005 to March 2007, he served as senior advisor in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) at the U.S. Treasury Department, the office designing and implementing some of the most successful measures in the U.S. counter-terrorism policy arsenal today. Previously, he served as counsel on the 9-11 Commission and as counsel with the Congressional September 11 investigation. The Washington Institute issued his monograph, "The West at War: U.S. and European Counterterrorism Efforts, Post–September 11," in May 2006 after he joined the Treasury. Since leaving the Treasury Department to join (actually rejoin) WINEP, he has written three excellent pieces on terrorist financing issues, the latest being a review of the recent meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF). You can see his complete bio here. We welcome Michael to CTB at this critical time, when additional financial sanctions against Iran and other states are under consideration.

An Islamist Resurgence in Nigeria?

By Douglas Farah

News reports from northern Nigeria indicate that a group of Islamist radicals have executed some 13 policemen in what could be a resurgence of the Nigerian "Taliban" or other al Qaeda-affiliated group.

The movement is not new. It first surfaced in 2003, but was widely believed to be eradicated. However, there have been many indications in recent months that radical Islamists were regrouping. The attack is the first fruit of that resurgence.

I tip my hat to J. Peter Pham, who earlier this year wrote about the Return of the Nigerian Taliban.

In his piece he commented on the January trial of a group called Media Trust Ltd., on trial in Abuja on three counts of terrorism. According to the indictment, the Trust director, Mohammed Bello Ilyas Damagun received $300,000 from al Qaeda accounts in Sudan with the intent that "said money shall be used in the execution of acts of terrorism."

The attacks come as Nigeria is undergoing two-part elections. The first was last weekend for parliament and, this weekend, for the successor of president Obasanjo. Violence is already flaring following credible reports of massive voter fraud and registration irregularities. My full blog is here.

Victor Comras to Testify on Financial Sanctions Against Terrorist States

By Andrew Cochran

Victor Comras is one of a number of distinguished witnesses who will testify at a special Congressional hearing today on the subject, "Isolating Proliferators and Sponsors of Terror: The Use of Sanctions and the International Financial System to Change Regime Behavior." Two U.S. House subcommittees of the Foreign Affairs and the Financial Services Committees are holding the hearing together to set the stage for legislation designed to encourage or force cessation of business in Iran and other states which support terrorism and WMD proliferation. Other witnesses include senior officials of the Treasury and State Departments, and the state treasurer of Missouri, a leader in the "terror-free investing" movement now gaining steam with pension and retirement fund managers. The hearing begins at 2 pm ET in 2172 Rayburn Building (EDIT: see webcast through this link). We'll post Victor's testimony when it is available.

Aftermath of the Virginia Tech Shootings

By Dennis Lormel

What a horrible event. As the sobering reality and magnitude of the tragedy set in, will campus life ever be the same again? Should it ever be the same? Hopefully, the Virginia Tech community will come together, gain strength and persevere. The outpouring of concern and support from all around the country has been heartening.

Before there is a critical rush to judgment, as there has been in certain media quarters, about the response of Virginia Tech officials and law enforcement, all relevant information must be obtained and assessed. Was the response reasonable? That question will be answered in time, as it should. Our immediate concern should be focused on the well being of the families of the deceased, the survivors of the attack and the entire Virginia Tech family.

At this point, blame and criticism should be focused squarely on the shooter, Cho Seung-Hui and not on school or law enforcement officials. What drove him to commit such a heinous act? How did he obtain the weapons? How did he become an apparent proficient marksman? How much planning preceded the attack? Most importantly, what were the warning signs, and why were they missed? Were the warning signs similar to those exhibited by individuals involved in other shooting incidents? In answering these questions and promoting awareness to the problems and issues, authorities will take an important step toward safeguarding us moving forward.

Cho Seung-Hui was obviously deeply troubled. His behavior leading up to the shootings had to be full of warning signs. Investigators must piece together the warning signs in this case and educate the public for future consideration in identifying similar behavior patterns in other individuals before disaster strikes again.

Student and public vigilance is critically important at this troubling time. Experts are deeply concerned about the copycat effect that could be triggered as a result of yesterday’s shootings. Therefore, awareness and vigilance become everyone’s responsibility.

Virginia Tech Tragedy: Human Nature & Networks

By Aaron Mannes

While the Virginia Tech tragedy has spawned the predictable media frenzy, there has – so far – been an admirable lack of speculation about the killer, his motives, or what this event says about American society. Leftist philosopher Herbert Marcuse once observed, “Not every problem someone has with his girlfriend is necessarily due to the capitalist mode of production.” Humans are complicated and there are dark places in the human soul that will emerge. Sometimes ideologies and causes will spark these evil inclinations. But they exist and have emerged in every time and place.

Knowing that tragedies are part of the human experience – whether from natural or man-made causes – it is essential to take proper steps to ameliorate their impact. Dwight Eisenhower once observed, “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.” Predicting the exact shape of the next tragedy is rarely possible. But the processes of preparing for some kinds of disasters and attacks will help develop the systems and habits necessary to respond to whatever fate throws. Lives were saved on 9/11 because some WTC tenants had consistently practiced evacuation techniques in the wake of the 1993 bombing.

University Presidents are akin to mayors. Universities are attractive targets and favorable locations for a variety of adverse events (violent attacks, disease outbreaks, criminal activity, and mass disturbances.) Undoubtedly yesterday’s tragedy will increase interest in disaster planning at universities. One factor that should become central to planning is the ubiquity of mobile communications technology. Students texted each other to stay abreast of events and of course, there is the now famous celphone video. Properly harnessed this technology could have been an invaluable resource – not only for informing the students and public about evolving events - but for helping authorities locate the injured and track the killer’s movements.

This is the age of the network, and the ability of people to quickly form networks and exchange information is an integral part of disaster response and mitigation. In the wake of Katrina, evacuees formed online communities to support each other emotionally and also through practical measures. We have seen the bad guys (terrorists and criminals) and commercial interests make creative use of communications technology to organize internally and get their message out externally. There is no reason the good guys can’t do the same.

Washington Times: Finding the Moderates

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

My new Washington Times column, which will likely ruffle some feathers, is about how to improve relations between counterterrorism experts and Muslims. An excerpt:

In the counterterrorism world, we often demand accountability and self-criticism from Muslim leaders. I believe it is right to do so. But often Muslims feel they are unfairly singled out, or automatically met with suspicion. There are some legitimate reasons for these feelings, and we who engage in counterterrorism would do well to display the same kind of self-criticism in our relations with Muslims that we demand from the community's leaders.

Three major tendencies in the counterterrorism field are worth combating. The first is the habit of criticizing the Muslim community but never complimenting or discussing its progress. Criticism is necessary, as it has brought to light individuals and organizations who openly profess moderation while actually promoting an extremist agenda.

But criticism can produce a skewed view when it is not balanced by positive news. I am frequently asked why moderate Muslims don't speak against extremism — as though moderates are cowed into silence while jihad is openly extolled from mosque pulpits. While Muslim moderates need to do more, I have seen a wide variety of moderates speaking with a stronger voice over the past few years, through such publications as Islamica Magazine and the Website Altmuslim.com. We would do well to acknowledge these voices.

A second negative tendency is the unwarranted dismissal of Muslim moderates who disagree with us on policy issues. Moderate Muslim voices are diverse, coming from both the right and the left. After a recent talk I gave, an audience member told me that the aforementioned Islamica Magazine was a "radical Islamist publication" because of an article that objected to the Department of Homeland Security's revocation of Swiss scholar Tariq Ramadan's visa.

While one might disagree with the article, that disagreement stems from policy differences — not from the supposed radicalism of Islamica. Working alongside moderates with whom we may disagree on some issues but who nonetheless genuinely oppose jihadist violence and the forceful imposition of Islamic norms will help bring more valuable, authentic voices into the discussion. Indeed, listening to and respecting differences of opinion are among this nation's strengths.

You can read the whole column here.

Arab States' Efforts to Combat Terrorism Financing

By Matthew Levitt

On April 1-5, the seventeen Arab members of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENA FATF) met in Jordan to discuss terrorism financing and money laundering in the region. Although the task force's record to date shows some promise, the organization can do far more to address these critical issues.

For a backgrounder on the MENA FATF and a complete analysis of its latest meeting, please see Michael Jacobson's full article here.

33 Dead in Shootings at Virginia Tech (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Final update, 5:45 pm ET: School and law enforcement officials announced that the shooter killed 32 in the Virginia Tech shootings, with at least 15 more wounded (CNN reports 29 wounded), before killing himself. The shooter entered and shot inside West Ambler Johnston Hall, a residence hall that houses almost 900 people, then continued two hours later at Norris Hall, an engineering building. That time gap without a significant law enforcement response is mystifying. You can identify those buildings by clicking on the map below and navigating within it. The VT student newspaper has posted a detailed timeline of the shooting on the website of its parent company and another map of the area. So far, there is no indication of a political or religious motive for the shootings; networks are reporting recent bomb threats and a possible personal motive.

This could not only the worst school or campus shooting ever in the U.S., but the worst mass killing by one shooter in a single day. By comparison, the shootings at Columbine High School in Littleton, CO in 1999 took 12 lives. In 1966, sniper Charles Whitman shot 13 people from the University of Texas clock tower before lawmen shot him. MSNBC has a list of campus shootings in the U.S. (it reports that Whitman killed 15 before being killed).

NBC News reports that the shooter was a young American male who used two 9mm handguns, and that he shot himself. The FBI and ATF are investigating the shootings, as has been standard procedure for any such shooting since the 9-11 attacks.

Last year, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross posted on the phenomenon of the "lone-wolf terrorist":
Can Mohammed Taheri-Azar Be Prosecuted for a Terrorist Offense?
The Problem of the Lone-Wolf Terrorist

The Islamist Charm Offensive

By Douglas Farah

The Islamist front is clearly on a broad charm offensive. The results are impressive. We have the Foreign Affairs piece, op-eds in both the Boston Globe and Wall Street Journal, the friendly forum for 4.5 hours of undisputed discourse from Tariq Ramadan at Georgetown University and the upcoming "What Does it Mean to Be Muslim in America" forum again at Georgetown's Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding (funded by an endowment from the Saudi prince who had difficulty discerning 9/11 as a terrorist attack). The last includes the president of ISNA and the Muslim Student Association, ISNA's precursor as the first Muslim Brotherhood entity in the United States.

Given the scope and success of this push for a new acceptance of Islamists as politically representative of Islam writ large, and the efforts to reframe the debate in this country away from Islamists believe toward what they are willing to say in public, it is an important move.

The debate is now to be framed over whether Islam is compatible with democracy and how supposedly "moderate" groups like the Brotherhood are, despite their continued support of _jihad_ and an Islamic world government. (For a good look at the fallacies of this argument, see today's Frontpage piece by Patrick Poole.)

It is interesting that Georgetown University chose to allow Europe's leading Islamist, Tariq Ramadan, a friendly forum from which to espouse his views, virtually uncontested. Ramadan has been banned from the United States and France for his defense of the Islamist agenda and long-standing associations with violent Islamist _jihadists._

I do not believe talking to Ramadan and those like him is necessarily a bad thing. But allowing him to set the definitions, the parameters of the debate and underlying assumptions, is wrong. My full blog is here.

Somalia Insurgency Gains Strength

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The insurgency in Somalia continues to gain strength as attacks have increased throughout the country, and fighting has returned to Mogadishu. A Hawiye clan-brokered ceasefire collapsed on Wednesday of last week in the face of clashes between Ethiopian troops and insurgent forces aligned with the fundamentalist Islamic Courts Union (ICU). The situation has become so dire that Somali deputy prime minister Hussein Aidid has likened it to "another Iraq."

The SITE Institute reports that a faction known as the Young Mujahideen Movement posted a communiqué claiming responsibility for attacks targeting Somali government officials -- including Ibrahim Shaweye, Mogadishu's deputy mayor for security, and Mohamed Nor Qalaad, the deputy mayor for finance. The group had earlier released a video on March 26 claiming credit for a suicide car bomb attack in Mogadishu that killed Ethiopian troops. The Young Mujahideen Movement's statements have been distributed by the Global Islamic Media Front, which has had a strong relationship with al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

The United States has finally begun to show some interest in the deteriorating situation. For the first time in over a decade, a top U.S. official traveled to Somalia to meet with the transitional federal government (TFG). Assistant secretary of state for African affairs Jendayi Frazer met with Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf, and reported that they "talked about the need for a cease-fire . . . and the return to a political process to try and build support and legitimacy for the transitional federal government and to isolate the extremists."

While this trip is a positive development, far more attention to Somalia is needed. The insurgency shows no signs of losing steam; innocent Somali citizens are being killed and displaced constantly. The TFG still isn't receiving the aid it needs to pay its soldiers and government officials, and to begin to stabilize the country. High-level American intelligence sources have told me that the ICU may intend to recapture Mogadishu by the end of the summer. The situation in Somalia is not yet lost, but the window of opportunity to take positive action is rapidly drawing shut.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

CBN News on the Anbar Salvation Front

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Last week CBN News terror analyst Erick Stakelbeck and I developed a story on the Anbar Salvation Front, a group that includes a broad mix of Sunnis who are united in their goal of expelling al-Qaeda from Iraq. An excerpt:

The Anbar province has served as a nerve center for al-Qaeda since the early days of the insurgency -- some might call it al-Qaeda Country. It's estimated that more than 8,000 Iraqis have been killed or injured by insurgent attacks in Anbar province. Cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi have long been trouble spots for U.S. troops. The campaign of terror has led to power and influence in the predominantly Sunni region.

But many tribal leaders here are tired of living in fear and want to take their home back from al-Qaeda. "They believe that al-Qaeda in Iraq is breaking Iraq apart and turning the Sunni people on each other, and they want to eliminate that," said military analyst Bill Roggio. Roggio says the Anbar Salvation Front includes a broad mix of Sunnis: local tribesmen, Iraqi nationalists, ex-Baathists, and even some Islamists. Many are former insurgents that are now working with the U.S. military and Iraqi government.

The Anbar Salvation Front is already a powerful force, and is likely to take on increasing importance in the future. As Bill Roggio of The Fourth Rail told CBN, "We're certainly allied with people who fought us, probably less than a year ago. But this is, in the end, how you win insurgencies. How you break them apart and turn the more moderate elements against the more radical elements."

You can read the whole piece and watch the video report here. For more, see Eli Lake's excellent profile of Anbar Salvation Front leader Abdul Sattar al-Rishawi in The New York Sun.

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State" Claims Suicide Bombing in Baghdad's Green Zone

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's "Islamic State" has issued an official communique today claiming responsibility for yesterday's suicide bomb attack on Iraqi parliamentarians in the heavily-fortified Green Zone in the Iraqi capital Baghdad. According to the statement, Al-Qaida fighters had carefully studied their target before successfully infiltrating the Green Zone and dispatching a member of Al-Qaida's "Martyrs Brigade" wearing a suicide bomb vest. Additionally, Al-Qaida's "Islamic State" acknowledged a 24-hour delay in claiming responsibility in order to give the terror cell responsible for the attack a chance to safely escape.

Yesterday, as Rita Katz and the SITE Institute have noted, a false message claiming credit for the suicide bombing on behalf of Al-Qaida's "Islamic State" was posted online on the website muslm.net. I would echo their words in stating that, for the record, muslm.net is not used as an official distribution point by Al-Qaida--neither inside nor outside the borders of Iraq. There is simply no excuse for media outlets (or anyone else) who continue to recklessly quote sources on muslm.net and other online forums of questionable credibility. Al-Qaida has made it painfully obvious--in official statements, video recordings, and other material--which Internet forums it relies upon to release its propaganda and where its most loyal supporters and potential recruits tend to gather online. That short but notorious list need not be repeated here once again.

Algiers bombings: a diversion?

By Olivier Guitta

The recent multiplication of bombings against security forces, including the double suicide bombings in Algiers would be part of a strategy to force the army to release its grip on Bejaia, in Kabylia.
In fact, a massive operation involving thousands of troops, heavy artillery, helicopters has been going on for close to 3 weeks.
The Algerian army has surrounded a group of GSPC militants [Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat ; now called Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb [AQITM]] in Bejaia, where they think a top-level terrorists meeting was taking place.

To read more on this, please click here.

Morocco's mistakes in anti-terror strategy are today costly

By Olivier Guitta

In light of the recent suicide bombings in Casablanca from terrorists who did not want to get caught alive, it's interesting to take a look at some of the major deficiencies of Morocco's anti-terror strategy.
From last week's issue of The Croissant comes this story:

The United Nations pointed in 2003 to the weaknesses of the Moroccan anti-terror fight, even after the May 16 terror attacks in Casablanca:

A U.N. group composed of a dozen people and placed under the direction of a British diplomat visited Morocco in September 2003.

Why?
To verify that Morocco applied the UN Council Resolutions relating to putting an end to the support networks of international terrorism

Upon their return:
2 UN experts wrote a report
This 2003 document is embarrassing for Moroccan services in charge of fighting terrorism at the time.
The conclusion of that report could not be clearer: “the Moroccan authorities did not want to collaborate with us”.

One of the major reasons of this behavior is:

- SAUDI ARABIA:

a) Fear of Saudi Arabia:

Regarding the [2003] Casablanca attacks:
The number 2 of the Moroccan DST [equivalent of the FBI] at the time, Noureddine Benbrahim, revealed to agents working for French intelligence that:
“To blame Al Sirat Al Moustakim (the group presented as responsible for the bombings) was a decision made with the French and the Americans to limit the impact on the domestic situation”.

Why?
“Because to say that these attacks were Bin Laden’s responsibility:
Would create total panic in the country”
“And the fury of Saudi Arabia”, could have very well added Benbrahim…

According to a French Defense ministry 2003 memo:
Benbrahim also told the French spies that at least 2 nationals of the Gulf - a Saudi and an Emirati - were among the terrorists but that the Moroccan Interior ministry kept silent “to protect Morocco’s friends”.

Here lies a major dilemma for Morocco:
How to fight efficiently terrorism when one needs the influx of capital from the Gulf and does not want to anger Saudi Arabia whose perverse ideological propaganda in the 80’s, 90’s and early 2000’s is no secret for anybody?

To read the rest including details of the report, please click here.

Growing chemical arsenal for Iraqi Shiite militias, Hezbollah and Hamas delivered by Iran

By Olivier Guitta

Recently, UN Secretary general Ban Moon has acknowledged that Syria has been delivering weapons to Hezbollah, contrary to what UN resolution 1701 asks.
A much troubling development is occurring.
From last week’s issue of The Croissant, comes this story about the growing dangerous arsenal for Hezbollah and Hamas:

According to the Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah, quoting Western intelligence sources:
Shiites militants arrested in Iraq acknowledged that chlorine-laden weapons had been delivered to them by Iranian Revolutionary Guards, very present within the militia of Moqtada Sadr in the suburbs of Sadr City. But other more worrying testimonies point out that similar weapons were delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank to be used against Israel in the event of a military strike against Iran

That’s not all: for the past 2 months, the deliveries of mid and long range missiles (between 50 and 250 km) to Hezbollah has accelerated.
These weapons are intended to be equipped with chemical warheads provided by Iran (this is currently experimented in Iraq in low dose) and bacteriological warheads provided by Syria.
This armament is a replacement to Iranian continental missiles that the Israeli anti-missile batteries are likely to neutralize

To read the rest, please click here.

Attacks in Baghdad: Undermining the Concept of Iraq

By Aaron Mannes

In the Arab world, according to the eminent Bernard Lewis, the nation-state is faced with pressures from above and below. From below tribal, sectarian, and ethnic loyalties frequently trump national allegiances. From above, grand causes, pan-Arabism for much of the 20th century, now Islamism trump nationalism.

The pair of bombings in Iraq yesterday, targeting the Iraqi Parliament and the Sarrafiya Bridge had many implications – but they were both attacks on the concept of Iraq as a nation. According to radical Islamist doctrine (as described in The Management of Savagery by Abu Bakr Naji, translated by William McCants at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center) when a region dissolves into savagery people seeking security will rally around tribal affinities, gangs, and prominent individuals. These local actors can then be co-opted to the Islamist cause. By this means, the loyalty to the broader Islamist community will trump local and national affiliations.

The attack on the Parliament has received the greater attention in the international media. The terrorist’s capability of striking at the very heart of the Iraqi government and U.S. administration in the supposedly secure Green Zone will obviously undermine perception of security. It also has an international impact and can only diminish the already low level of American confidence that progress is being made. The Parliament is only a nascent Iraqi institution, and held in low repute by most Iraqis both for its fecklessness and for its relative privilege. The bombing may improve the Parliament’s standing by showing the Iraqi people that their elected leaders share their risks, and ideally it would spur the Parliament to more effective action. This is a slender hope.

(Apparently the bomber was an MP’s bodyguard. A politician’s bodyguard also took the Saddam execution video. Better regulation of these posses may have both security implications and improve the Parliament’s standing among the Iraqi public.)

The Sarrafiya Bridge was another matter. A relic from a previous round of nation-building (by the British in the middle of the 20th century) the bridge, also known as Jisr al-Hadeed (“the iron bridge”) was a central artery linking the banks of the Tigris. According to Omar Fadhil at Iraq the Model most of his friends were far more upset about the destruction of the bridge than about the attack on Parliament. Many Baghdadis have fond memories of the bridge itself. Practically, its loss virtually slices the city in two.

Sarrafiya’s destruction is yet another blow to any possibility of normal life in Baghdad, further diminishing Baghdad as a cosmopolitan and distinctly Iraqi city, and atomizing Iraqi society.

Cross-posted at ProfilesinTerror

Complete Text: The Islamic Army of Iraq (IAI) Attacks Al-Qaida, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi

By Evan Kohlmann

The complete English translation of the April 5 letter from the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) about its relationship with Al-Qaida is now available from Globalterroralert.com. The IAI issued the statement in response to recent accusations made by Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" and its leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. In the communiqué, the IAI vigorously denied these charges (including its would-be links to the Iraqi Baath party) and instead countered with its own set of allegations against Al-Qaida--including that Al-Qaida is responsible for killing more than 30 IAI fighters in needless fratricidal violence, and that Al-Qaida was behind the assassination of 1920 Revolution Brigades leader Harith Tahir al-Dari. The IAI went on to appeal directly to Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden to intervene in the situation and "correct the path" of Al-Qaida's forces in Iraq.

The Spreading al Qaeda Network

By Douglas Farah

The recent attack in Algeria by Al Qaeda's Committee in the Islamic Maghreb in Algeria, coupled with the re-emergence and spread of the Islamist presence in Somalia, clearly show two things:

1) That the macro strategy of the core al Qaeda of fomenting the creation of small, autonomous groups to carry out jihad is firmly taking root and

2) That Africa, from the Northern tier to the Horn, with a network to Southern Africa and tactical alliances in West Africa, have made that continent one of the most important battle grounds in the long war on Islamist terrorism.

Algeria is particularly important because of its proximity to Europe and the large presence of Algerian diaspora in many European countries, and the radicalization of many of these diaspora groups.

The ability of the Algerian group to inflict large-scale casualties, the possible role of the group in fomenting violence in neighboring Morocco, and its operational presence down to Mali all indicate some important growth and growing capacity. My full blog is here.

Text: Al-Qaida Claims Suicide Attacks in Algeria, Possible Links in Morocco

By Evan Kohlmann

The Algerian Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat (GSPC)--now known as "Al-Qaida's Committee in the Islamic Maghreb"--has issued a statement today claiming responsibility for dramatic suicide bombings in the capital of Algeria. The statement identified the bombers (with accompanying photographs) as Muaz bin Jabal, al-Zubair Abu Sajidah, and Abu Dujanah. The targets of the attacks purportedly included the local office of Interpol. According to the statement:

"We bring good news to the larger Islamic nation and, in particular, to our mujahideen brothers concerning the execution of special type of an operation for the very first time... We say to the apostates and their lords among the crusaders: behold the young Muslim men who are coming to you, behold those who cherish death more than life itself, and cherish martyrdom the same way that you cherish your corrupt lifestyle. We shall not put away our swords and we shall never live in peace until every last Muslim land is set free from the crusaders, the apostates, and the collaborators... O’ Allah, attack the Jews and Christians and their apostate collaborators and bring victory to the mujahideen everywhere."

Increasing evidence gathered by Western intelligence agencies seems to also suggest that Al-Qaida's forces in Algeria are playing in role in fomenting Islamist violence in neighboring Morocco. If accurate, this would be the first official indication that the GSPC is actively seeking targets outside the borders of Algeria.

Click to view English translation of Al-Qaida communique c/o Globalterroralert.com

See also:
- Al-Qaida Claims 18 Simultaneous and Expansive Attacks on the Infidels (3/1)
- Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud Issues Call for Repentance from Security Forces (3/4)
- Al-Qaida Claims Bomb Attack on Russians and Raids on the Infidels (3/5)
- GSPC Claims "Battle of Shaykh Abul Baraa Ahmad" (Feb. 2007)
- (January 2007) - Message from GSPC Commander in Algeria: "We Are Coming"
- Video: "The Battle of Bouchaoui": Attack on bus in Algeria carrying U.S. contractors (Dec. 2006)
- Video: "Five bombings [targeting] Algerian apostates" (Feb. 2007)
- [CTBLOG]: - "GSPC in Algeria Announces New Name: Al-Qaida in the Maghreb"
- [CTBLOG]: "GSPC Claims Credit for Terror Attack on Western Contractors in Algeria"

Islamic Militant Kicks off Revenge Killing in Bangladesh

By Animesh Roul

Suspected Islamic militants have gunned down a senior government lawyer Hyder Hossain, who was conducted the case of the two Jhalakathi judges' killing by Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen militants and instrumental in bringing six top JMB militants, including JMB chief Abdur Rahman and its second-in-command Siddiqul Islam to death. The militants were executed on March 30 in different prisons in Bangladesh. According to the Daily Star, citing witness accounts, four militants shot Hyder Hossain, former district Ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami, in the head when he came out of Kabarsthan mosque, Jhalakathi after eveining prayers, on April 11.

Soon after the executions, the outfit (JMB) claimed that they are observing two month (60-days) mourning in memory of its executed ringleaders.

Nevertheless, it seems that this is the beginning of a series of revenge attacks by the JMB militants.

Algiers Terror "Ghazwa": It is a global war with Terror, in different battlefields

By Walid Phares

Today's suicide attacks in Algiers leaves us with the following thinking points:

1. The Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat (with its new name) joined al-Qaeda few months ago. It is now waging "Jihad" against the Algerian state, civil society and democracy movements in that mostly Arab Muslim country. The press release by al Qaeda of Maghreb -aired on al Jazeera TV- is clear: It is about a global Jihadi campaign with Algeria and other countries as "battlefields."

2. This is an additional evidence that the War on Terror is global and not linked directly and exclusively to U.S. Foreign Policy. The Jihadists in Algeria are targeting Algerians from all backgrounds while there are no US troops in that country. It is a struggle that began before 9/11 and is resuming today.

3. The ideology of the Algerian Salafists, as I described in my book the War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy, aim at brining down 52 Muslim Government, including 21 Arab regimes, around the world, in addition to fighting the "infidels" wherever they can and decide to meet them.

4. In the current debate on the War on Terror, and while voices in the US Congress -as well as in the European Parliament- have called for banning the term "Global War on Terror," the attacks in Algeria today demonstrate (with blood and statements) that many in the West haven't yet understood the Global aim of the Jihadists. In my book, I argue that the War of Ideas has to be won at home first, so that the Global Conflict with the Jihadist can be won as well.

5. The barbaric attacks in Algiers, called "Ghazwa" (Jihadi raid) by al Qaeda, shows that more than ever, Muslim moderates and anti-Jihadists need to rise against the Jihadi Terrorists before their societies are overwhelmed by the Salafists and the Khomeinists

6. It is to note that the attack in Algiers is linked to last week's attacks in Morocco and the confrontations in the rest of North Africa and Somalia. Hence I would recommend that counter terrorism analysts in the West and in the Middle East provide a sound regional expertise to an international media which can derail itself further in its own assessment of the attacks, if it relies too much on evaluations by the pro-Wahabi intellectual elite.

This is a short brief. It will be followed later with a related analysis.

Some US Diplomats & Politicians Think MB = “Moderate” Brotherhood - They Should Think Twice

By Bill West

Much has recently been reported, including here in the CT Blog by Andrew Cochran today, about the international Islamist movement Muslim Brotherhood (MB), founded and based in Egypt, and its involvement with and support for radical fundamentalist Islamic organizations around the world. Much has also been reported about the MB increasingly being viewed by some in the diplomatic and political arenas as an alleged moderate force in the Muslim world and how it should be regarded as an entity to be politically engaged in a positive way. The MB is outlawed in Egypt, though it remains the dominant opposition political force in that country. Even some US diplomats and politicians have called for dialogue with the Brotherhood. Reportedly, elements of the US Government have actually engaged in direct contacts with MB leadership.

Today, a report surfaced in Adnkronos International (AKI) concerning a new terrorist group in Iraq calling itself “Iraqi Hamas.” Iraqi Hamas has apparently claimed responsibility for attacking and bringing down a US helicopter in Baghdad on Tuesday. The AKI report goes on to state that Iraqi Hamas is believed to be linked to the Islamist party in the Iraqi parliament (serious in its own right) and to the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Clearly, these reports are worthy of further investigation and presumably the US military and Intelligence agencies are doing just that. That an operationally active terrorist organization in Iraq that has attacked US military personnel may have links to the Muslim Brotherhood should not surprise serious counter-terrorism professionals. Those US diplomats and politicians who believe the Muslim Brotherhood should be engaged as a peace partner should consider reports as the one just noted in AKI and all the available Intelligence material that surely exists related to this issue.

UNSC Poised to Criticize Syria (Again)

By David Schenker

Less than a week after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s counterproductive visit to Damascus, the UN is weighing in with its own assessment of Syrian policy. Press reports on April 9 indicated that France had circulated a draft UN Security Council statement expressing concern over the transfer of illegal arms from Syria to Lebanon. This Syrian transfer of weapons is rearming Hizballah in violation of UNSCR 1701.

This is not the first time that the UN has criticized the Syrian arms transfers to Hizballah after last summer’s disastrous war. In November 2006, Terje Roed-Larson the top UN diplomat on Lebanese-Syria affairs—who is not known for his favorable bias toward Israel—noted that the Syrians were rearming Hizballah.

During the war, it was revealed that Syria was not only serving as a transit point for Iranian weapons going to Hizballah, but was also providing Hizballah with its own top of the line cutting edge weapons—such as the Kornet anti-tank missile and 220 mm anti-personnel rockets—to the Lebanese terrorist organization. Many reports refer to this activity as “smuggling,” but Syria, a tightly controlled dictatorship, is not a place where this type of freelance political activity routinely occurs. As such, these weapons transfers should be understood as the policy emanating from Damascus.

Despite Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem’s denial to Pelosi of any smuggling of weapons across the border to Lebanon, Syrian weapons transfers to Hizballah remain a problem. It’s ironic that the UN is leading the charge against this counterproductive development as Pelosi and the US Congress—both Democrats and some Republicans—are looking to rehabilitate Damascus.

The Ineffectiveness of the UN Travel Bans Exposed (Again)

By Douglas Farah

Well, if we needed further evidence of the lack of effectiveness of the United Nations travel ban lists (supposedly obligatory lists that ban the individual from traveling from his/her home country), we need look no further.

Just ask Gen. Mohammad Basqer Zolqadr, a Iranian Revolutionary Guard general and deputy interior minister. He publicly and happily violated the UN ban with a recent official visit to Russia. He not only traveled to Russia unimpeded despite being on the recently-mandated ban under Resolution 1747 because of his role in Iran's nuclear program, but he bragged that the six-day sojourn showed just how ineffective the resolution is.

"Despite resolution 1747 which imposed a travel ban on some members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, including me, I traveled to Russia and no restriction was applied," Zolgadr crowed on returning home.

He is right. Without real international cooperation, the ability to violate the travel ban lists with impunity only add to the problem they are supposed to be tackling. My full blog is here.

New Academic Paper: The Convergence of Crime and Terror

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

By 1931, Al Capone was a celebrity criminal with a litany of offenses that included murder, bribery, and running illegal breweries. But the government would have had trouble proving his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt for his most notorious activities, and charged him with tax evasion. Although the mobster swore that the government couldn't collect legal taxes from illegal money, he proved to be wrong -- and entered prison on May 5, 1932. This was the most famous example of a model that law enforcement adopted to deal with the unique problem of the mob, a model that placed a higher priority on neutralizing mob leaders and their activities than on winning the heaviest sentence. Thus, mob leaders were often prosecuted for, and convicted of, lesser offenses discovered by investigators. Because of the difficulty of convicting terrorists and their supporters of their most serious offenses, the "Al Capone model" of prosecuting for applicable lesser offenses has also been used frequently in terrorism cases.

My associate Kyle Dabruzzi and I have written a new paper for the Manhattan Institute's Center for Policing Terrorism entitled "The Convergence of Crime and Terror" that explores the Al Capone model of anti-terror policing and the new nexus between crime and terror. An excerpt:

The Soviet Union was a major terrorist sponsor during the Cold War. When the USSR collapsed, terrorist groups were forced to look elsewhere financially, and many turned to criminal activities. Some 15 years later, terrorist groups that are not state-sponsored pose the greatest threat to the United States. Consistent with post-Cold War trends, these groups have become heavily involved in criminal activities. . . .

Terrorist involvement in criminal activity has two strategically significant aspects. First, it allows terrorists to gain financially while at the same time damaging the societies they target. Terrorists, always on the lookout for new ways to fund their violent activities, find important sources of revenue in criminal enterprises. Close scrutiny of jihadist terrorism since 9/11 demonstrates that these groups are often funded through the drug trade, money laundering schemes, and a variety of financial scams that range from the simple to the highly complex. Terrorists also use other illegal activities, such as document fraud and sham marriages, to facilitate their operational objectives.

A second strategic aspect is that law enforcement can derive some advantage from the crime-terrorism nexus. . . . The Al Capone/mob model for combating suspected terrorists is not without its critics, but it is a sensible response to the threat that the country faces. Terrorists have killed more innocent Americans than the mob ever did, and if the next terrorist attack employs weapons of mass destruction, it could be even more devastating than 9/11.

As with the mob, prosecutors often have difficulty proving involvement in terrorist acts beyond a reasonable doubt. But also like the mob, as the government investigates an individual who is strongly suspected of terrorist ties, it often uncovers evidence of other crimes. As Ashcroft suggested, prosecutors have not hesitated to "use every available statute" against suspected terrorists.

The paper is available for download in its entirety at the Center for Policing Terrorism's web site.

Spain fears attacks in the Maghreb against its interests

By Olivier Guitta

After the French, the Americans and the British, the Spaniards are now warning of potential terror attacks in the Maghreb.

From The Croissant comes:

Spain fears attacks in the Maghreb against its interests

The Spanish ministry of Foreign Affairs recently sent a note to its embassies in the Maghreb inviting them to:
Take “all necessary precautions”
To raise the level of alert in the consulates, and companies w/ Spanish stakes

Consulates have already taken preventive measures such as:
Sophisticated monitors
Ban of cell phones for visitors

Why these measures?
A relatively new terrorist structure, named the “Organization for Liberation of Andalusia” (OLA) is said to be ready to strike against Spanish interests in the Maghreb

About OLA:
1 year ago, the OLA issued a statement on the web in Algeria, inviting Al Qaeda elements:
To go to Iraq
To carry out the “jihad” in Andalusia against the “apostate State” “to liberate Sebta and Melilla” [two Spanish enclaves near Morocco]
This call is intended “to declare a long war with Spain by creating a powerful front” and not “to carry out a few operations”

For the rest, please click here.

A French hostage in Iran

By Olivier Guitta

After the saga of the 15 British hostages and the French and the German just recently released, we just learned of a new French hostage.
From The Croissant comes:

A French hostage in Iran

January 30:
Stéphane Dudoignon, a researcher on Islam, was arrested in the province of Sistan-Baluchistan, in the southeast area of the country

Dudoignon was in this area in order to undertake research on the Sunni minority and religious schools in partnership with the Iranian university of Zahédan

After his arrest, Dudoignon was transferred to Zahédan, then flown to Tehran

He is currently in Teheran, where he is de facto on house arrest:
He is not authorized to leave the city and his passport has been confiscated

His wife is Iranian, so he is currently living with his family in-law in Tehran until he gets his passport back

To read the rest, please click here.

Libya's Qaddafi Tries the Role of Islamist Uniter

By Douglas Farah

Ever the chameleon on the international stage, Libyan dictator Muamar Qaddafi is making a play to return to his Islamic roots and play the role that Sudan did under the leadership of Hasan al-Turabi-a bridge between Shi'ite and Sunni camps to form a broader Islamic nation.

According to translations of recent Qaddafi speeches provided by the Middle East Media Research Institute, the aging leader, who had in recent years turned his back on Arabs and declared himself an pan-Africanist, is now calling for the recreation the Shi'ite _Fatimid_ state, which ruled northern Africa from the 10th to the 13th centuries.

I have long argued that, given his constant meddling in sub-Saharan Africa, his support for Mugabe in Zimbabwe and his gross abuses of human rights, that Qaddafi was not a reliable partner in any way, for virtually anything, despite getting his country taken off the state sponsors of terrorism list.

His list of other atrocities are also long. My full blog is here.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Holland

By Lorenzo Vidino

Over the last few weeks Dutch media have published information gleaned from Dutch intelligence files regarding the Muslim Brotherhood. One report indicated that Samir Azzouz and Noureddine el Fatmi, two top members of the Hofstad group (and, later, of the so-called “Piranha network”) had had close financial dealings with members of the Brotherhood based in the Netherlands. Another indicated that the Brotherhood, through the European Trust (its powerful financial arm in Europe), controlled two of the country’s largest mosques.

The lively discussion taking place both in the Dutch parliament and in the media as a consequence of these revelations resembles very closely the debate that is taking place on this side of the pond at various levels (and on this site). I have published an article in the latest issue of Opinio, a Dutch weekly, regarding the issue. While the article is in Dutch, below is the translation:

Recent media reports revealed that the Muslim Brotherhood, the oldest and most influential of all militant Islamist groups, has gained a foothold in the Netherlands, quietly placing itself behind two of the country’s largest and important mosques (de Rotterdamse Essalammoskee en de Westermoskee in Amsterdam-West).

The truth is that, despite its recent claims of moderation, the Brotherhood still adopts the same radical agenda that has characterized it for the last 80 years. In a December 2005 interview to the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, Mohammed Akef, the group’s official supreme guide clearly stated that “the Muslim Brotherhood is a global movement whose members cooperate with each other throughout the world, based on the same religious worldview - the spread of Islam, until it rules the world.” On the Brotherhood’s website Akef also tellingly said: "I have complete faith that Islam will invade Europe and America, because Islam has logic and a mission.”

And while the final goal of the Brotherhood is, as its publications and leaders openly say, world dominance, the group adopts different tactics to obtain it. Flexibility and deceit are the two qualities that distinguish the Brotherhood from groups such as al Qaeda and that have allowed the group to thrive throughout its history. The Brotherhood, in fact, operates in different ways according to the circumstances. In places were conflict is what it deems the best option to achieve its goal, the Brotherhood will pick up arms. In Palestine, for example, the Brotherhood operates through Hamas (art. 2 of Hamas official charter states: “Hamas is one of the wings of Moslem Brotherhood in Palestine.”). In the West, on the other hand, the Brotherhood has chosen a completely different tactic. Having realized that a full front confrontation, as the one al Qaeda is attempting, against the West, is premature, given the relative weakness of the radical Islamic movement, the Brotherhood has decided for a more nuanced approach.

In the West violence and confrontation are replaced by a cleverly engineered mix of penetration of the system through appeasement and simultaneous radicalization of the Muslim population. Its leaders publicly vow the group’s dedication to integration and democracy, representing themselves as mainstream, and seeking to portray themselves as the representatives of the various Western Muslim communities in the media and in dialogues with Western governments. Yet, speaking Arabic or Turkish before their fellows Muslims, they drop their facade and embrace radicalism. While Brotherhood representatives speak about interfaith dialogue and integration on television, the group’s mosques preach hate and warn worshippers about the evils of Western society. While they publicly condemn the murder of commuters in Madrid and school children in Russia, they continue to raise money for Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

Terrorists Begin Spring Offensive in Afghanistan

By Andrew Cochran

Writing on the New York Daily News blog "Mouth of the Potomac," reporter James Gordon Meek has written a timely summary of recent action by Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in Afghanistan indicating the start of their spring offensive. Meek has embedded there often and maintains contact with soldiers stationed there. On March 25, insurgents attacked a U.S. Special Forces camp near Afghanistan's eastern border with Pakistan, Firebase Tillman, which is named after the late NFL star Pat Tillman and is one of the areas in which Meek has embedded. Meek mentions recent as-Sahab videos purportedly showing attacks on American bases - you can see three still shots from one such video on the SITE Institute website.

Here is more of Meek's excellent post:

"The attack that night was significant for two reasons. One, it's rare to see a ground force of jihadis directly strike any well-protected U.S. base in Iraq or Afghanistan. Osama Bin Laden's As-Sahab propaganda wing had also released five separate Internet videos since the first of the year -- along with two additional videos released immediately after the attack -- depicting rocket barrages on Lwara, according to the SITE Institute.

Several other videos released by As-Sahab in recent weeks have shown purported ambushes of U.S. convoys near Khowst, a large town about 10 miles northwest of Lwara that is home to the large U.S. forward operating base called Salerno. Other recent propaganda videos depicted attacks near an American base in border town Orgun-E, which is within 15 miles of both Tillman and Salerno.

Are the Tides Turning for Al-Qaida in Iraq? Signs of an Ugly Rift with the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI)

By Evan Kohlmann

For months, there has been vigorous ongoing debate over the current state of Al-Qaida and its "Islamic State" in Iraq--its popularity, its brutality, and its longterm sustainability. The discussion has grown more complex in recent weeks as other Sunni insurgent groups--such as the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Front (JAAMI)--have begun to loudly complain about Al-Qaida's ISI aggressively muscling in on their territory and resources. Add to this the sudden break-up of the 1920 Revolution Brigades into two factions, one Sunni nationalist and one pro-ISI. The split itself was sparked by the assassination of the former leader of the 1920 Brigades, apparently at the hands of Al-Qaida. Arguably, the last straw was the ISI's Abu Omar al-Baghdadi's latest audio message, in which he arrogantly suggested that Sunni insurgents were incapable of fighting the U.S. and Iraqi government without the help of Al-Qaida. Al-Baghdadi even challenged other Sunni insurgents who refused to join the ISI to prove their salt by videotaping their own suicidal ambushes on U.S. bases and military barracks in Iraq.

Now, the quarreling has moved out in the open, with an angry letter today issued from the media wing of the prominent Sunni militant organization known as the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI). To be fair, the IAI is hardly an innocent spectator in the insurgency. It has, at various times, worked closely with Al-Qaida in Iraq and it has claimed responsibility for or been implicated in a litany of brutal acts, including kidnapping and murder. Yet, dropping all pretenses towards brotherly unity, the IAI has suddenly fired off a volley of sullen contempt for Al-Qaida, its Islamic State, and its leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi--accusing the ISI of spreading "unfair, false accusations" about its would-be connections to the Baath party, threatening other insurgents with death if they refuse to swear allegiance to the ISI, and the fratricide of at least thirty fellow Sunni militants from other groups (such as the 1920 Revolution Brigades, the Mujahideen Army, and Ansar al-Sunnah). The IAI took particular exception to Abu Omar al-Baghdadi's challenge to other insurgents to justify their existence by attacking American military bases: "Oh, forgive us Allah, does this era need further evidence? ...the Islamic Army has executed dozens of raids on bases and military barracks...[including] in the year 2003 before the Al-Qaida network in Iraq was even founded." The IAI even directed an appeal straight to Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden in Afghanistan, urging him to personally look into these allegations and "correct the path" of Al-Qaida's leaders in Iraq.

What does this mean? While it is tempting to think that Al-Qaida may be dramatically losing appeal among Sunni insurgents, one must also be mindful that this new letter may, more precisely, be a sign of a major split within the IAI itself, similar to what has just happened in the 1920 Revolution Brigades. As I discussed in my report State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: 2006, there have long been rumors of such a division within the Islamic Army over the group's relationship with the ISI, particularly in the western Anbar province. Meanwhile, this situation continues to develop, as it is almost certain that the Islamic State of Iraq will soon issue its own stinging digital retort.

Special Report & Slides Released on Pre-Iraq War Intel

By Andrew Cochran

Sen. Carl Levin, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, today released a newly declassified report of the Department of Defense Inspector General about the intelligence activities of Douglas Feith, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, before the Iraq War. Sen. Levin also released declassified slides which Under Secretary Feith used to brief the President and senior staff on the alleged relationship between Iraq and Al Qaeda. The slides include a checklist of shared "objectives" with the notation, "Intelligence indicates cooperation in all categories; mature, symbiotic relationship,” and the last page has a bullet point stating, "Multiple areas of cooperation." The IG report confirms that the intelligence community did not find any operational relationship between Iraq and al-Qaeda and that “the CIA and DIA disavowed any ‘mature, symbiotic’ relationship between Iraq and al-Qaida.” The IG concluded that Under Secretary Feith's briefings included "conclusions that were inconsistent with the consensus of the Intelligence Community," and that his actions were "inappropriate." You can download the IG report here and the slides here. Much of the slide presentation is still redacted as a matter of security. Newsweek released a portion of the slides in a story in January 2006 on the MSNBC site, but this is the first release of the entire slide presentation. You can read a transcript of a Fox News Channel interview in February with Feith on the Fox News site.

This closes one of the last outstanding loops in an issue which has no apparent future. I last posted on this issue on November 3 (with links to previous posts).

Bajaur: When "Peace" Yields War

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Last year I wrote extensively about the Waziristan Accords, in which Pakistan surrendered a large geographic area to forces aligned with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. (See this blog entry written just after the Accords were signed, as well as this Weekly Standard article that I co-wrote with Bill Roggio.) The Waziristan Accords caused attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan to rise dramatically, and provided a safe haven where terrorists could train, communicate, and plot future attacks. Recently the government of Pakistan surrendered another region, Bajaur, to terrorists and their allies. A story that Erick Stakelbeck and I developed for CBN News about the Bajaur Accords aired on Tuesday:

However, despite all the setbacks, Pakistan is still striking deals -- this time with jihadists in the country's Bajaur region. Sources told CBN News this accord is similar to the Waziristan treaty, in which Pakistan turned control of that region over to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. "Bajaur is right by an area where there's been a lot of insurgent activity in Afghanistan. So there's obviously a concern that with this new accord, there will be much more of an increase in attacks against Coalition forces," said CBN News consultant Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. High-level intelligence sources have told CBN News that the Pakistani government made the deal with Faqir Mohamed, a powerful Taliban leader in Bajaur. Mohamed's group sent more than 10,000 troops to fight U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Pilots bombed his home in Bajaur last year to target a top al-Qaeda leader. "Basically, with these accords, he becomes the king of Bajaur. He's a man who is incredibly influential, incredibly powerful there, and basically is the perfect confluence of factors to help al-Qaeda," said Gartenstein-Ross. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf agreed to the Bajaur accord despite increasing White House pressure to crack down on jihadists in the tribal regions. Terrorism expert Walid Phares says that Musharraf, who's survived several assassination attempts by al-Qaeda, thinks appeasing his jihadi opponents will help him hold on to power.

Read the whole story here.

CENTCOM (Inaccurately) Reports New Bin Ladin Video Expected Soon (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

CENTCOM has issued a press release titled "Al-Sahab Reportedly To Release New Bin Ladin Video Message" with the following message from a jihadist website:

"After a long absence by the shaykh of mujahidin, whom we have missed as well as his speeches, some news is being leaked indicating that Shaykh Usama Bin Ladin, God protect and preserve him and make him a thorn in the throat of the enemies, will make an appearance. The news indicates that Al-Sahab Media Establishment, which specializes in publishing Al-Qa'ida leaders' speeches, has recently finished producing a video featuring Bin Ladin's speech to the entire Islamic nation. "

UPDATE, 4:45 pm ET: Experts on Al Qaeda tape releases, including Evan Kohlmann, doubt the reliability of the website on which this was posted. Rita Katz of SITE Institute has issued a press release stating, "These reports are inaccurate and are based only on inauthentic, unsubstantiated rumors on jihadist messageboards. There has been no word of a forthcoming bin Laden video through the traditional channels al-Qaeda uses to make such announcements."

Morocco: Discovery of biological agents/GICM #2 arrested

By Olivier Guitta

Regarding the recent suicide attack in Casablanca on March 11 and the previous arrest of GICM #2 Saad Husseini, come the following two stories from The Croissant:

1- Discovery of biological agents in Morocco

[After the March 11 suicide bombing in a cybercafe in Casablanca and the multiple arrests, here is what was found at the bombers’ place]

The most worrying finding of Moroccan authorities is the discovery of chemicals that could have been used for large-scale terror attacks:
A microbial stock of “pathogenic Tetanus” cultivated by the terrorists was found in their hideout
This agent could cause death within 24 hours if person not inoculated with anti tetanus serum

2- GICM # 2

When talking about Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), the Casablanca attacks or the Madrid ones in March 2004,
2 names keep on popping up:
Husseini, (GICM) #2
Mohamed Guerbouzi, GICM #1

Saad Husseini:
Arrested on March 8 while sitting in a cybercafe
Interior Ministry official said:
his arrest was not random
succeeded in making him leave his den thanks to very sophisticated techniques

Husseini’s history:
In the mid 90’s: he settled in Turkey where he met other leaders of GICM including Karim Utah
Then made it to Afghanistan via Pakistan.
Until October 2001: he remained in Afghanistan perfecting his knowledge of explosives thanks to his chemist formation
Then: he returned to Morocco

For the rest, please click here.

Enabling Terrorism and Chaos in Africa

By Douglas Farah

One of the abiding tragedies of Africa is the twin curse of brutal and corrupt leaders and the unwillingness of the region's less brutal leaders to take corrective action.

The latest, long-running train wreck is Robert Mugabe's thuggery and kleptocracy in Zimbabwe, a once proud and prosperous nation now boasting only the highest infant mortality rate in the world and some of the worst inflation.

As Arnold Tsunga writes in today's Washington Post, Mugabe is not single-handedly destroying his country. He is enabled by the weak, pathetic and tragic lack of leadership of his enablers, the leaders of other southern African nations, to face the crisis he has wrought.

At a recent African summit following the naked aggression of Mugabe's thugs, including the beatings of main opposition leaders then the public bragging about it, the other leaders were worse than silent. Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete announced that he an other leaders were "in support of the government and people of Zimbabwe." So much for the policy of "quiet engagement" in working with Mugabe. It is more like public endorsement.

There is no question of historic factors such as colonialism, slavery and exploitation causing deep and lasting effects in Africa. But it is these self-inflicted wounds by the "Big Men" of Africa that have allowed the cancer of corruption, brutality and despotic rule to spread and last.

This is akin to paying lip service to cracking down on drugs while publicly bragging about distributing heroin and crack on the streets.

This is a crisis that extends far beyond Zimbabwe. By creating (and standing by and/or encouraging it), southern Africa is creating the conditions for the spread of terrorism and chaos. My full blog is here.

New "Martyr" Biographies from Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq"

By Evan Kohlmann

Al-Qaida's Islamic State of Iraq (IAI) has released several new "Distinguished Martyr" biographies profiling noteworthy foreign fighters who have been killed waging a jihad against U.S. and Iraqi government forces. The "martyrs" include: Abu Turab al-Liby (from Libya), one of the founders of Al-Qaida's anti-aircraft brigade in Iraq; Abu Tariq al-Tunisi (from Tunisia), a suicide bomber who entered Iraq through Syria; and, Aqil al-Masri (from Egypt), one of the founders of Al-Qaida's Media Wing in Iraq. Separately, Al-Qaida supporters have announced the death of Saudi national Turki Bin Abdelaziz al-Mani, who was killed in early March 2007 during a clash with U.S. military forces in the western Anbar province of Iraq. Al-Mani is the brother of Khaled al-Mani (a.k.a. Khallad al-Najdi), a senior Saudi Al-Qaida commander in Iraq who was himself killed in January 2006.

Click to view English translations (c/o Globalterroralert.com):

- "Distinguished Martyr #28": Abu Turab al-Liby (Libya)
- "Distinguished Martyr #29": Abu Tariq al-Tunisi (Tunisia)
- "Distinguished Martyr #30": Aqil al-Masri (Egypt)
- Martyrdom of Saudi national Turki Bin Abdelaziz al-Mani in Iraq

See also:
- Al-Qaida Mourns Slain Saudi Insurgent Commander (Khallad al-Najdi) in Iraq (March 2006)
- "The Shining Star: In Memory of Our Dead Mujahideen Brothers in Iraq" (May 2006)
- New Video: Al-Qaida's "Convoy of Martyrs" in Iraq (February 2007)
- Video: "The Role of Foreign Fighters in the Iraqi Jihad" (NEFA Foundation)

FATF Identifies Weaknesses in Turkey's AML/CTF Program

By Victor Comras

Last September a special FATF-sponsored team of financial experts undertook an evaluation of Turkey’s Anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing programs. The evaluation was undertaken with the cooperation of the Turkish Government, and involved extensive discussions with both government officials and representatives of the private sector. The experts reviewed the institutional framework, the relevant AML/CFT laws, regulations, guidelines and other requirements, and the regulatory and other systems Turkey has in place to deter money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing. The results have just been published on the FATF website. The following observations are drawn from the Evaluators' observations.

The Turkish Government was slow, after 9/11, to enact new AML/CTF laws and regulations and is now in the process of playing “catch up.” A new money laundering offence was introduced in June 2005, and a stand-alone terrorist financing offence was enacted in July 2006. But, this new law continues to fall short when it comes to complete implementation of obligations contained in the International Convention on the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (1999), to which Turkey is a party. The new Terrorism Financing offence only applies in relation to terrorism against Turkey and its interests and it only applies to funding for the actual commission or attempted commission of specific terrorist acts.

Turkey’s Counter-terrorism financing program has so far been directed principally at the PKK/KONGRA-GEL terrorist organization. The Evaluation notes that the PKK/KONGRA-GEL has been quite active in organizing campaigns through auxiliary organisations in Europe to increase its financial resources and has forcibly collected funds from Turkish citizens living in those countries. It also reportedly engages in organised criminal activity. This has included increasing involvement in drug smuggling, arms and people smuggling and money laundering to finance its endeavours. The money obtained from drug smuggling represents a large share of the total revenues of the organisation and provides resources for the purchase of weapons, ammunition and equipment. While Turkey has been particularly active in investigating and prosecuting cases dealing with the PKK, the evaluation team noted what it called a serious “lack of awareness” of Turkey’s AML/CTF policies on the part of Turkey’s prosecution and judicial authorities and a “disproportionate level of acquittals” when it comes to other AML/CTF matters.

Penal sanctions for money laundering or terrorism financing apply only to natural persons, and not to legal entities or charities. Such entities are subject only to administrative penalties such as licence cancellation or property confiscation. These new measures have not yet produced any substantial results, leading the evaluation team to conclude that Turkey continues to have “weak systems {in place} for implementation of {UN} S/RES/1267(1999) and S/RES/1373(2001) {obligations}”

The focal point of Turkey’s new AML/CTF effort is its newly re-enforced Financial intelligence Unit and new STR requirements on banks and certain other bank-like institutions. While the number of suspicious transaction reports (STRs) has increased substantially in recent months, the level still remains quite low. Very few AML/CTF violations have been reported or uncovered, and no substantial penalties have yet been imposed. The STR process is still limited in scope to the banking sector, leaving large segments of Turkey’s financial and quasi-financial sectors outside the structure of control.

Turkey has a large non-profit sector, primarily comprising associations and foundations. These Non Profits are closely regulated, but there is still a significant lack of oversight when it comes to the handling or distribution of funds. The evaluation team indicated that it had not received any information which demonstrates that Turkey periodically reviews the sector in order to assess TF or ML vulnerabilities. In addition, there is no outreach program for raising the awareness of the non-profit sector about the risk of abuse by money launderers or the financiers of terrorism. The number of associations inspected in recent years is quite low leading the Evaluation Team to conclude that Turkey's domestic and international cooperation in this area remains particularly weak.

Despite these shortcomings, the Evaluators concluded that Turkey is now, more than ever, committed to carrying out its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing responsibilities. Let us hope that Turkish authorities take the Evaluators' constructive criticisms and observations seriously, and use the report to stimulate the adoption of new measures and procedures to correct the noted deficiencies. Turkey’s recent moves to reportedly enforce UN designation measures againsts identified Al Qaeda financier Yasin Al Qadi is an important step in the right direction.

Admedinijad's "Plan B" - The Circus Continues

By Walid Phares

With the decision to release the 15 British sailors, the Ahmedinijad Circus resumes its tales. Morphing from a “long story” to a “sensational scoop” the powerful Khomeinist propaganda machine has produced a better end to the hostage crisis: release them now and invest heavily in their “merciful liberation.” Hence the new debate worldwide as of the first hours of this day is about the Mullahs “freeing” the British personnel, not anymore about their “abduction”, and certainly not the other crucial stories, from UN sanctions on the nuclear standoff, the Iranian operatives arrested in Iraq, or the domestic opposition to Ahmedinijad. The war of images is on, powerful, and still in the hands of Tehran, or rather in the sophisticated “PR machine” at the service of the regime.

The abrupt change in direction operated by the Khomeinist decision-makers, from long-lasting crisis to blitz-solution is the product of a strong advice given by the “PR machine,” most of it based in the West, realizing how catastrophic would have been a stretching of the hostages’ crisis in time. Ahmedinijad wanted time but his advisors realized that the operation has been exposed in the world court of opinion, and hence had to cease and morph. But why did the “advisors,” mostly (Western-hired) ask the Mullahs to release the British at once and “use” the decision to the advantage of the regime? Here are the very objective and heavy reasons:

1) Simply because the basis behind this punctual operation was systematically eroded in one week: Analysis exposing the role of the Iranian intelligence in Iraq, the defection of Iranian military officials, and the rise of protests inside the country explained what was the regime trying to dodge. The surfacing of this analysis both in Western and Arab media stripped the Iranian PR machine from its “juice.” Few around the world still believed that the Mullahs were concerned about a British breach of Iranian waters. It was all about “creating” an international incident to flee the above realities. Hence the “Psy-ops” architects quickly ordered a change in direction.

The narco Saudi prince

By Olivier Guitta

Amazingly, the following story did not make it to our shores while there is a connection to a major US drug bust, to a Saudi royal and possibly to terrorism.

From The Croissant comes:

On March 28 started in Paris the trial of 53-year-old Saudi prince Nayef Bin Fawaz Al-Shaalan and 9 accomplices for an alleged cocaine traffic between Colombia and France. The prosecutor is seeking a ten-year sentence for Al Shaalan.

The prince will not be at the trial:
He does not leave Saudi Arabia anymore
A double international warrant (US and French) is active

The prince:
Denies any implication
Objects, saying this is an American plot

The prince has close ties to the Saudi royal family:

The potential connection to terrorism came from an investigative site www.geopolitique.com:
According to the site:

1- Al Shaalan told his Columbian partners that the money from the smuggling was to serve the Islamist cause.

2- Also the charter company that Al Shaalan was using is Skyways, owned by the Saudi National Commercial Bank, owned at that time by Khaled Bin Mahfuz.
One of the pilots of Skyways is none other than Pakistani Mohamed Tahsin who according to US sources is financially linked to September 11 hijacker Ahmed Al Ghamdi.

For more, please read here.

The Mujahadeen on the Move?

By Douglas Farah

There are several developments, and provocative articles, that point to a broadening of the _jihadi/Salafist_ network and its increasing reach and sophistication. None of this bodes well for the United States, now locked in a political showdown over Iraq and other domestic scandals and perpetually unable to focus on more than one political war at home and one thing abroad.

The first is this report from the Jamestown Foundation on the second edition of the "Technical Mujahid," an internet magazine released bimonthly to help _jihadist_ improve their technical security and increase their internet presence.

It gives guidance on how to embed messages in pictures, how to encrypt communications and offers a sophisticated encryption program.

The article also lays out how to design and uploading websites, offers advice on what weapons are best for anti-aircraft use and other information.

The objective of the publication, according to its editor, is to "to eradicate the phobia and anxiety suffered by those who refrain from participating in jihad because they erroneously believe that intelligence services are monitoring their every move. Additionally, the publication aims to spread a sense of security, vigilance and self-confidence, in a scientific way, among members of jihadi forums by educating them in jihadi propaganda and enhancing their knowledge of field operations."

A second element is the deteriorating situation in Somalia. As noted by my colleague Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, the international community has utterly failed to keep the entirely-predictable resurgence of the _salafist_ Union of Islamic Courts from emerging. My full blog is here.

Iran to Release British Hostages - So What's the Deal?

By Andrew Cochran

President Admadinejad has announced the release of the British hostages as "a gift to the British people." The official IRNA site trumpets a medal given to the commander of the Iranian coast guards who seized the hostages. Iranian and British TV broadcast video of a short meeting between Admadinejad and the hostages.

Now it's time to figure out the elements of the deal and judge just who "won" and "lost," including inside Iran, and our Contributing Experts will contribute their opinions here and in media interviews. Here are the CT Blog posts on this crisis since it broke, in chronological order from the most recent to the first post:

A Jihadi Circus in Tehran and the 15 sailors by Walid Phares

U.N. Still Not Acting to Protect Human Rights of British Hostages and U.N. Should Demand Immediate Access to the British Hostages in Iran - my posts

Watch out for possible Hezbollah/Iran attacks in South America by Olivier Guitta

Royal Navy "incident": The larger plan of Teheran's regime by Walid Phares

Iran: Targeting the U.S.-U.K. Alliance by Aaron Mannes

Iranian Captures of British Navy Personnel: Intentional Provocation or Local Decision? - my post (first in the series)

U.S. Fails to Act as Fighting Worsens in Somalia

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The situation in Somalia has grown markedly worse over the past week as the Islamic Courts Union's (ICU) insurgency gains steam -- so bad, in fact, that the Christian Science Monitor claims that the Somalis "haven't seen fighting this intense since the overthrow of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991." The fighting has produced mass casualties, as 381 people were killed and 565 wounded over a recent four-day period. Some of the ICU's more sensational recent attacks include a March 30 downing of a helicopter that was bombing insurgents, a series of mortar attacks (one of which killed a Ugandan peacekeeper), and a bomb attack Monday that targeted a government car.

A congressional report on Somalia was released last week. The gist is that al-Qaeda's East African operations are intact, and they're out for revenge. After the ICU lost its hold on Somalia following the Ethiopian invasion, the group's donors started pumping more money into the country. Al-Qaeda's senior leadership is also clearly prioritizing Somalia, as virtually all the tapes they have released since early January mention Somalia in some way. I spoke with a senior U.S. military intelligence officer over the weekend who reports that a number of Yemeni tribes who would have previously sent jihadists to Iraq are now sending them to Somalia instead.

Eritrea continues to provide weapons and logistical support to the ICU, and possibly military advisors as well. While Eritrea provided advisors earlier, they may have been pulled out of the country because a number of them were killed during Ethiopia's invasion.

Tactically, the ICU is exercising a remarkable degree of restraint in its fighting and target selection. It is almost exclusively targeting transitional federal government (TFG) troops and police. Often radical Islamic groups will also kill "collaborators," but thus far the ICU hasn't done so. When the ICU left Mogadishu, it did so on fairly good terms with the clan elders. Obviously the ICU is attempted to keep this good will alive.

The military intelligence source said that time is not on the TFG's side. The TFG is unable to pay gunmen to fight for it, and likewise cannot afford normal government services. I warned in January that the TFG would have great trouble winning the peace in Somalia without U.S. aid, yet the State Department has continued to block funding despite the Pentagon's desire to provide large cash outlays.

This creates a terrible situation for the TFG. While the ICU has an energized base of support, the TFG's position is dependent on the willingness of Ethiopia and Uganda to support it. Ethiopian troops are still in the country in limited numbers, but as casualties mount their presence will become a significant political issue in Ethiopia. The military intelligence source reports that there are many parallels to Iraq, where the initial military campaign was fairly successful but the insurgency gained steam thereafter. However, he doesn't think the Somalia campaign will last as long as Iraq: the fighting will likely be over faster, and not with a happy ending. He expects a resort to the situation in Somalia prior to the Ethiopian invasion, where the ICU controlled the entire country. He doesn't see the political will for another U.S. offensive there.

The truly infuriating thing about the situation in Somalia is that after committing military resources to defeat the ICU, the U.S. has utterly failed to provide our ally, the TFG, with financial and political support. This shows that we have not learned the right lessons from past failures. The cost of our failures in Somalia will be heavy: U.S. prestige will be diminished, it will be harder to attract allies in the future, and Somali lives are being needlessly lost.

Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.

Why Are American Officials Meeting With Terrorists' Supporters?

By Andrew Cochran

The internet sites and cable TV shows are buzzing about the visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Syria today. She's not the only Member of Congress meeting with the Assad regime - three Republican Congressmen, including the normally sensible and reliable Rep. Frank Wolf of Virginia, also met with Assad this week against the express wishes of the Bush Administration. Do the four of them remember that they voted for the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003? The "Findings" in that Act include: "Terrorist groups, including Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine--General Command, maintain offices, training camps, and other facilities on Syrian territory, and operate in areas of Lebanon occupied by the Syrian armed forces and receive supplies from Iran through Syria." and "The Government of Syria is pursuing the development and production of biological and chemical weapons and has a nuclear research and development program that is cause for concern." Did Speaker Pelosi, second in line to succeed to the office of President of the United States, forget what she said on October 15, 2003, when she supported the Act? "The people of Israel and the cause of peace in the Middle East have been the traditional targets of the groups helped by Syria, but today’s attack on the U.S. convoy in Gaza is a reminder that the United States, and our interests around the world, are foremost on terrorist target lists." What possible good could come out of meeting with Syria and why send the unmistakable signal that the Act was a mistake? I called three of the Congresspersons' offices to ask for an explanation and received no response.

But there's no need to limit this criticism to just Congress. One top Bush Administration official, DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff, invited Dr. Yahya Basha to set up a dinner with Muslim Americans in Detroit in February. Does Secretary Chertoff know or care about Dr. Basha's past and that of the organizations with which he has associated for years? Dr. Basha is a board member of the Muslim Public Affairs Council in Los Angeles and was the president of the American Muslim Council, two groups with a long history of associations with terrorists and their supporters. For instance, the AMC is now defunct because its founder and chairman, Abdurahman Alamoudi, was convicted for plotting to kill the Saudi Crown Prince. According to the Treasury Department, Alamoudi had "a close relationship with al Qaida and had raised money for al Qaida in the United States." Basha personally refused to support the Afghanistan campaign to remove the Taliban and Al Qaeda after the 9-11 attacks.

Jordan fears Hamas’ Khaled Meshaal

By Olivier Guitta

Last year, an Israeli general warned of a potential coup in Jordan to overthrow King Abdullah.
One clear threat for the Amman regime is Hamas Khaled Meshaal.
For proof, from The Croissant:

The Jordanian government worries about the latest maneuvers of Khaled Meshaal, the chief of the radical wing of Hamas [based in Damascus and supported by Syria and Iran] on the Jordanian and West Bank Islamist scenes

Jordan:
Meshaal would seek to separate the Palestinian Hamas from the mother organization , the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood
Amman fears that Meshaal will copycat Yasser Arafat’s strategy who had used the PLO to allow Fatah to control the Palestinian street in Jordan, starting in 1965
Advisers to the King suspect Meshaal of wanting to support independent candidates in the forthcoming legislative elections, planned at the end of 2007

To read the rest, please click here.

Al Qaeda's Generational Shift

By Assaf Moghadam

Today’s issue of the New York Times features an article about a new generation of Al Qaeda leaders that has apparently emerged under Osama bin Laden. Citing U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials, the article suggests that the new leaders “rose from within the organization after the death or capture of the operatives that built Al Qaeda before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, leading to surprise and dismay within United States intelligence agencies about the group’s ability to rebound from an American-led offensive.” The article also reports that the investigation into the August 2006 airline plot involving liquid explosives “has led officials to conclude that an Egyptian paramilitary commander called Abu Ubaidah al-Masri was the Qaeda operative in Pakistan orchestrating the attack.”

If the reports are true, this latest piece of news further underscores how U.S. officials have continuously underestimated the resilience of Al Qaeda and associated entities. After 9/11, when a U.S.-led coalition dealt a heavy blow to Al Qaeda’s infrastructure in Afghanistan and captured or killed a large percentage of its membership, analysts were too quick to jump to the conclusion that Al Qaeda morphed, in its entirety, into a movement. While it is beyond doubt that Al Qaeda has branched out after 9/11 by empowering its affiliates and encouring them to carry out more independent attacks, most analysts assumed too quickly that Al Qaeda’s core was too eroded after 9/11 to pose a serious threat.

American Jihadist, "Ticking Time Bomb," to Plead Guilty to Terrorism Charges

By Andrew Cochran

WNBC in New York City reports that Mahmud Faruq Brent, of Gwynn Oak, MD, will admit that he supported terrorists and traveled to Pakistan to train with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Pakistani-based terrorist organization. "Brent was arrested as part of the investigation into Tarik Shah, 43, a New York jazz musician who allegedly offered to use his martial arts expertise to train would-be terrorists. Shah was arrested as part of an FBI sting operation along with other defendants, including Florida doctor Rafiq Sabir who allegedly offered to use his medical skills to treat wounded terrorists. While Brent is expected to plead guilty, Shah and Sabir have denied any wrongdoing."

We covered the Brent arrest and complaint and tracked his links to the "Virginia jihad gang" (or "paintball gang") when he was arrested. As we wrote then, "Brent's phone records apparently include a phone number at an address known to have been used by Seifullah Chapman, one of the convicted paintballers. Also recall that Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, the young wannabe jihadist arrested in northern Virginia in February, knew members of the paintball gang." Abu Ali was later convicted - see my post on that with links to other posts on his case and that of other LeT here in the U.S. Six weeks after Brent's arrest, another VJG member, Ali Asad Chandia of College Park, MD, was arrested and indicted along with Mohammed Ajmal Khan in Great Britain. Chandia was convicted last June in Virginia.

A federal prosecutor told Steven Emerson that Brent was a "ticking time bomb" who could have carried out attacks here in U.S. His guilty plea represents another success (at least 12 convictions, including the Brent plea, that I can remember) in the effort to take apart the LeT network of committed and trained jihadists in the U.S.

Iran's Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

By Matthew Levitt

Michael Jacobson writes an interesting piece today about the status of FIUs in Iran and the greater Middle East:

An Iranian Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

By Michael Jacobson
April 2, 2007

The State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released on March 1, offers a little-noted reference to a dubious claim: an Iranian government statement (made to the UN) that Tehran has established a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The report notes that Iran has provided no further details. Even if the Iranian claim were true, the creation of an FIU would do little to combat terrorism financing in the nation, given Tehran's official support for terrorist groups. In other countries, FIUs are an important element of effective counterterrorism policy -- though the record of key Middle Eastern nations is somewhat mixed in this regard.

Background

FIUs are centralized, national agencies responsible for detecting and fighting terrorism financing and money laundering. Most national units operate under the umbrella of the global FIU network, the Egmont Group (named after the Palais d'Egmont in Brussels, where the group's first meeting took place). Established in 1995, Egmont has grown rapidly, from fourteen participating countries to more than 100; the number of FIUs worldwide is even larger when one considers units that do not, or have not yet, qualified for Egmont membership. In the United States, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the Treasury Department, serves as Washington's representative in the group.

The full article is available here.

Gulf countries fear the closing of the Ormuz Strait

By Olivier Guitta

While the situation with Iran escalates, and oil prices are increasing steadily, the following story makes completely sense.
From The Croissant:

Gulf countries are worried about the repercussions on the oil sector in case of a war with Iran.

Fact:
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had threatened on several occasions to close the Strait of Ormuz in the event of a war
The Strait of Ormuz is the lifeline of the Gulf: 20% of the world oil production transits through there

Potential consequences of the closing of the Strait of Ormuz:
A major energy crisis
A steep fall of revenues for these countries

Solution:
to read the rest, please click here.

A Jihadi Circus in Tehran and the 15 sailors

By Walid Phares

Since day one of the planned operation to snatch British sailors from Iraqi (or international waters), the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) “Kitchen” in Tehran, had already drawn multiple scenarios for the following weeks and potentially months to come. Indeed the regime, reacting to significant rising pressures from sectors of its own population and from the US-UK led coalition, engineered an “escalating” incident.

The main scenario, as projected inside the minds of the Iranian “Jihadi-cooks,” is based on one request from the Khamenei-Ahmadinijad regime: wasting time, as much time as possible. To the Khomeinist Mullahs and their men in power, it is crucial to win the race: On the one hand, a rising pressure coming from the inside of the country and inspired by the political changes in the region. On the other hand a pressure by the Iranian led “axis” in the region, directed at the US and the UK initiatives in Iraq and in the neighborhood. In short, Tehran’s regime wants to crumble its enemies before it is crumbled by its own opposition. From there on, all incidents, scenarios, plans, and sub plans are possible.

“Catching” a British Navy unit off the shores of Iraq -regardless of the GPS positioning of the unit- is the beginning of the play. In ten days, Tehran has already scored one success: The UN is discussing what to do about the 15 British sailors instead of how to shut down the 15 nuclear centers in Iran. The debate has been deflected and is now in the hands of the “Iranian architects.” This is followed by the dramatization of the “incident.” First the regime begins showing the “captives” and swings media-reporting between “where were they patrolling” and “will they be tried.” Another psychological victory is scored: The international press follows the Iranian maestro’s gesticulations. As usual with the Western mainstream media, the story’s details become the devil, and their readers are denied the big picture. Here is how the Mullah “psych-war” develops and could evolve in different directions:

Recent Islamist terrorism in Morocco

By Olivier Guitta

In light of the March 11 suicide bombing and the great likelihood of potential attacks in Morocco, it's interesting to take a look at the recent history of Islamist terrorism in the kingdom.
From The Croissant:

How did Morocco get there?

1994:
First Islamist attack in Morocco against the Asni hotel in Marrakesh

2002:
Arrest of a group of Al Qaeda terrorists including scores of Moroccans and 3 Saudis that trained in the Faruk camp in Afghanistan
They had planned to attack British and US ships in the Strait of Gibraltar with explosive-laden Zodiacs

May 16, 2003:
5 simultaneous suicide attacks bloodied Casablanca
The perpetrators are:
Moroccans coming from the area of Sidi Mumen in Casablanca
plus possibly one Emirati and one Saudi though unconfirmed by authorities

March 11, 2004:
The Madrid bombings, executed mostly by Moroccans

August 2006:
The mysterious group Ansar Al-Mahdi suspected of preparing large-scale attacks is dismantled

2006-2007:
Dismantling of cells sending combatants to Iraq and Afghanistan

For the rest, please click here.