Death, Confusion and Networks

By Douglas Farah

The recent announcement of the death of Muharib Abdul Latif al-Jubouri in Iraq, and the confusion surrounding the possible deaths of other leaders, highlight the importance of the network-based Islamist insurgencies in Iraq and elsewhere.

As the deaths of Zarqawi and much of the senior leadership of the core al Qaeda and Al Qaeda in Iraq have shown, individual deaths have a short-term impact.

But in the mid to long term, these deaths, while necessary in the struggle, do not do away with the underlying structures that give the groups' their viability. Al-Jubouri's alleged direct involvement in the killing of a journalist and others, and his directorship of the propaganda machine make him a valuable target, no doubt. But was likely replaced before his body was cold.

As a (much) younger person covering the cartel wars in Colombia, I initially fully bought the DEA and CIA's line that killing Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, then Pablo Escobar, then the arrest of the Rodriguez Orejuela brothers, who have a direct impact on the cocaine trade.

Of course, none of those activities did diminish the flow of cocaine, and it was evident after a while that the structures had almost a life of their own, independent of the individuals involved at any particular time.

The killings and arrests were not useless and they forced the cartels to adapt. But the volume of money in the drug business was such that there was always someone else to step up.

I would argue that, in the _jihadist_ structures, the ideological and theological imperative driving the groups is such that there is little trouble in replacing those that fall. My full blog is here.

TrackBack