"Lebanon Brave little force"..till when?

By Walid Phares

On May 22, W. Thomas Smith JR reported notes about the ongoing fight in northern Lebanon and posted them on NRO. I am reposting them on CTB. This was a week ago. I will post a more recent note as well.

LEBANON'S "BRAVE LITTLE FORCE"

By W. Thomas Smith Jr. National Review Online

Again, checked in with Dr. Walid Phares.

As many of you may know, Walid is an expert on international terrorism, who has frequently testified before Congress and conducted both congressional and State Department briefings on issues related to terrorism, the Middle East, and Asia. He's also a native of Lebanon who, prior to his relocating to the United States in 1990, was a practicing attorney and law professor in Beirut.

Walid and I have worked together on numerous projects in the past, and we've spoken frequently since the fighting erupted in Lebanon's northern city of Tripoli.

This morning, my question to him was simple: Based on what we've seen thus far, the 15,000-man Lebanese Army appears to be performing pretty well. Don't you think?

His response:

Yes, it is a brave little force.

In fact just today, my sources there in Lebanon and here in the U.S., have told me that tactically, the operations conducted by the units of the Lebanese Army [LA] have so far been successful against the al Qaeda-affiliated elements in Tripoli.

The combined operations by the LA included an advance by infantry and special forces, supported by Tanks, taking back most of the positions captured the day before by the Jihadists of Fatah al Islam. The Lebanese troops reached the entrances to the Nahr al bared Palestinian camp and secured the roads leading to the agglomeration.

Meanwhile, the armor continued pounding the enemy sniper positions, while other LA units were patrolling areas inside Tripoli, searching for arms.

Indeed, according to the sources, caches of weapons were found in different neighborhoods. The city's citizens were said to have led the soldiers to the locations. So, in short, this little Army — barely equipped with M113 armored personnel carriers, Humvees, and few old M48 tanks — has been able to roll back an al Qaeda-type militia into its compounds inside the camp, where the Lebanese troops cannot go, so far.

This alone demonstrates that a well-trained and determined local force can take on the terrorists, including al Qaeda. The Jihadists have a weak spot when confronted by indigenous but "determined" forces. It is a lesson for the whole strategy in the War on Terror, and also for the conflict in Iraq.
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However, the limited tactical success of Lebanese forces in Tripoli can be reversed if a strategic decision is not taken by the U.S., the international community and also by the Lebanese Government. For Fatah al Islam is not entrenched inside the camp. And going after terrorists inside a civilian agglomeration is strategically challenging. Al Qaeda's affiliate in Lebanon could transform Nahr al bared into a local 'Fallujah,' which means that it would require a decision by the Seniora government to cross the barrier. It will request also international assistance. Because if the Lebanese Army is ordered to move in, the other Jihadist organizations in Sidon, the Bekaa and in Beirut will attack the Lebanese military simultaneously.
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Besides, the Syrians could also order their militias into battle and Iran could order Hezbollah in. The Lebanese Army, poorly equipped, not endowed with a command structure that can coordinate with the government and not fully committed to the counterterror war yet, may be broken into smaller pieces.

So far, the battle against Fatah al Islam has shown that Lebanese soldiers can defeat al Qaeda Jihadists in a street fight, but only if they are supported by their government and eventually the international community. But if there is not strategic decision in Beirut, and ultimately in Washington and Brussels to lend real support to this brave little force, the Jihadists will counterattack, and overrun the government.

Armed elements, allied to Fatah al Islam, have already positioned themselves within the Palestinian camps of Sidon and Miyeh-Miyeh.

The next 48 hours are important.
Visit Walid Phares online.

05/22 09:07 AM

http://tank.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZmE3MTBlMTIxMTU0OTY2NjdlMGQ5NDEwM2JjODA2MGY

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