Counterterrorism Blog

When I touched down in Kuwait on the morning of May 17, I was greeted by severe sandstorms. From the air, the sandstorm looked like a cloud covering -- except we touched down on the runway a few seconds after the plane entered the sand. The weather conditions kept me in Kuwait for the day, mainly recovering from jet lag. But I also had the opportunity to speak with some American contractors who were working on reconstruction efforts in the Shia south. Since one of the main things I’m interested in during this trip is the effect that a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops will have on Iraq, I wanted to get the contractors' perspective.

They reported that a number of contractors are already leaving Iraq in anticipation of a timetable for withdrawal being set. The prevalent thinking among those who have chosen to leave is that there will be a mass exodus when a timetable is announced, and it’s better to return to the U.S. now. That way, those who leave can get good jobs back home before 20,000 or more contractors who were previously in Iraq return to the States looking for work.

The prevailing attitude among the contractors I spoke with was that there will indeed be a large exodus of workers if a timetable is set (they thought the number leaving could be as high as 50,000), but that the numbers leaving Iraq will level off over time because some people will want to stay to make money. Also, as contractors leave, the salary that can be earned in Iraq will correspondingly rise. But this isn't a simple case of diminishing supply and steady demand: there will still be a demand for contractors in Iraq as U.S. troops draw down, but demand won't stay even because a deteriorating security situation may cause some projects that otherwise may have been completed to shut down. Overall, the contractors' view was that the timetable would strike a major blow to reconstruction efforts.

This gives rise to another concern beyond the reconstruction efforts. There will likely be a ripple effect on the Iraqi economy as projects are shut down. The contractors provided a couple of examples. One involved a village from which they hire a lot of Iraqi workers -- a village that lacks a freshwater source. Reconstruction efforts haven't yet reached the water supply for that village, and as U.S. troops draw down it's highly unlikely that such a project will be started. The contractors have also heard that a hospital in Baquba may not be completed because of the deteriorating security situation there. They felt that a withdrawal timetable would cause an increase in these kinds of stories. These economic effects would in turn result in a lack of employment and the kind of frustration that can help tilt people toward militancy.

It's worth noting that the contractors were also frustrated at an increase in bureaucracy that makes it more difficult for them to work in Iraq. They weren't sure who was responsible for some of the newer rules that they see as ridiculous, but commented that "it's like somebody doesn’t want us here." One example is that during their current stint, they were ordered into Kuwait a number of days before flying into Iraq. Although they're supposed to be compensated for their extra time in Kuwait, the Kuwaiti government is apparently unwilling to verify their hours. They also were under some restrictions that limited their ability to eat and spend time in the Kuwait City airport that seemed rooted not in legitimate security concerns, but more of a desire to control their movements solely for the sake of control.

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