The Shifting Balance in the Jihadist/Salafist Movement
By Douglas Farah
The Los Angeles Times has a story laying out what my sources have been saying for some time: The al Qaeda affiliates in Iraq are now in a more dominant position within the overall al Qaeda structure, in part because of the Iraq organization's ability to generate funds.
While there are still foreign fighters in the Afghan-Pakistan region, most foreign combatant are choosing Iraq for their combat experience. The Afghanistan conflict is dominated by the Taliban, and there is tension between the Arab fighters and the resurgent Pashtun-dominated group.
This is in part because the Taliban remains focused on its local conflict rather than global jihad objectives. The Taliban is not overly welcoming of outsiders, with many feeling they lost their control of Afghanistan because of al Qaeda.
Yes, the groups are still willing to protect bin Laden, Zawahiri et al, out of loyalty and the recognition that their capture would be a blow, at least psychologically, to the entire range of jihadist movements. As a result, the bin Laden/Zawahiri trail appears to have gone completely cold.
In contrast, the Iraq-based al Qaeda groups are the vanguard of the violent international jihadist movement that is directly fighting American troops in a battle that has attracted the eyes of the world.
As a result, the Iraqi movements are drawing the financial backing of supporters across the Gulf as well as the new recruits. Financial backers like visible results, and Iraq is where there is a bigger bang for the buck, so to speak. My full blog is here.
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