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Palestinians: "Taliban" versus "Mujahideen"?
By Walid Phares
PS: This is an article published last week
Most analysts tend to agree (as of the end of June 2007) that a new reality has transformed the geopolitics of the Palestinian territories to the disadvantage of all parties claiming to represent the "Palestinian cause." And certainly among the most extreme critics of the recent events in Gaza are the Palestinian citizens who witnessed the horrors that took place in those areas. Since 1947, generations of civilians have lost hope and paid the price of misjudged and misused leadership, which continues to allow the repetition of what we, today, see are the victims of the latest bloody civil war among Palestinians.
Today there is a new reality in the two Palestinian enclaves: A Taliban-like power has taken shape in Gaza with a full Hamas control, and across the 40 km of Israeli territory, a beleaguered Palestinian authority struggles to maintain the West Bank's enclaves under its wings. A thorough reading in geopolitics leaves us with little doubt: a Jihadi regime has emerged between the Mediterranean Sea and the Negev desert. Indeed Hamas is an Islamic Fundamentalist movement, which believes in Jihadism as an ideology and employs terror as its means of accomplishing its objectives. Not only will it use extreme violence against the civilians of its declared enemy, Israel, but it has recently committed – according to Palestinian civilians in Gaza – "war crimes."
Today questions arise from all corners of the region and the world: Was Hamas' military victory in Gaza predicted? What are Iran's and Syria's roles? Will the Palestinians accept the new reality? Will the Arabs, Israelis, Americans, Europeans and others address the situation? And last but not least, what are the direct consequences of the Hamas coup d'Etat?
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Predictability
Was Hamas's military takeover of the Palestinian authority's agencies and institutions across Gaza predictable? Many in the media and some in academia expressed their surprise at the rapid developments that took place in that enclave. They were among those who advocated the peaceful and "democratic" choices of Hamas within Palestinian politics. Scores of intellectuals and commentators in the West were singing the praises of Hamas' "transformation" into a politically democratic body, which – as they argued – obtained "a legislative majority." Many European legislators and commissioners were attempting to convince their electorates that Hamas – like Hezbollah – is neither terrorist nor fascist. This advocacy logically ended last week with the bloody coup organized by the thought-to-be-civil organization. But aside from the failed expertise and myopic political statements in the West, was Hamas' leap into full military power in Gaza foreseeable? Absolutely yes, if we had perceived the group into what it was and continue to be: Jihadist. For, in comparative politics, a sound projection comes from an accurate description. Because many in the West, particularly Europe defined Hamas as a democracy-leaning "political" movement, all subsequent analytical predictions collapsed. For Hamas, as we understood it –based on its own literature and history – is a Jihadi Salafi organization, formerly financed by the Wahabis and currently funded by the Iranian regime. Hence the ballistics of its planning couldn't be clearer: First, infiltrate. Second, penetrate. Third, takeover and form a Jihadi regime.
Hamas's past strategy
Since its inception as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the group evolved as of the 1980s from one intifada to another until it claimed a "political" victory in 2006 in Palestinian legislative elections. Obviously, the two decades of financial support from regional regimes and the full control of the political education of the enclave produced a militia-inspired political win. But Hamas played it wisely inside the Palestinian landscape. It surely had several opportunities to strike at its competitors, including Fatah and the PLO as of 1986 and the Palestinian Authority as of 1994. But it opted to grow slowly under the wings of patience and a stream of Syro-Iranian lifeline, until time came: Actually until Tehran and Damascus ordered the final crunch against the Palestinian Authority. Like the old Soviet strategies, the Jihadi "long term plans" have also been used by the Islamists of Hamas. And as it practiced internally, the group also refrained from striking externally against the U.S., the West and its Arab enemies, and here again, until "orders" will came from the regional master.
Iran and Syria's long arms
Hamas, acronym of Harakat al Muqawama al Islamiya (Movement of Islamic Liberation) is Jihadi ideologically but has developed extended regional cross-sectarian and cross-ideological alliances. Another example of Western intellectual failure in seeing beyond ethnocentric lenses is how academics and commentators exhausted their energies in convincing audiences that Shiia and Sunni fundamentalists cannot strike deals and nationalists and Islamists cannot work together, when needed. After failing to "see" it in Iraq, then in Lebanon, the elite's analysis also evaporated with Hamas external ties.
Undaunted by the sectarian divide the "very Sunni" Hamas received significant support from the "very Shiite" Iran. And against all so-called mainstream thinking in Europe and North America, the very "Islamist" Hamas struck an alliance with the very "Arab nationalist and secular" Syria. In short, Tehran and Damascus gained long arms in the region by feeding Hezbollah and other groups in Lebanon as well as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories. Hence, those strategic leaps by the "long arms" were and are in fact moves executed within the wider scope of the Syro-Iranian axis. Only such an analysis could explain why would Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah triggers a war last July and Ismael Hanieh of Hamas launch a blitzkrieg in Gaza this spring.
Post Arafat: Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas
As long as Yassir Arafat was alive, Hamas wouldn't attempt to take over ultimate power among Palestinians, even though it may have had the strength. No Palestinian warlord, even though many have been backed by Arab regimes in the past decades, would have been able to accomplish that task. Once the "abu Ammar" (nick name of Arafat) was gone, the clock began ticking in Hamas' war room. First, they pressured Abbas (replacing Arafat) for legislative elections while they were still armed and well funded. The results were obvious: they would grab the seats of all districts under their militia control, most of Gaza. Then they formed a cabinet, "playing democracy." And as they controlled the central part of the executive branch they slowly infiltrated the main PA military and security agencies, upsetting Fatah, also armed. Since both elections, Presidential and legislative the civil war was inevitable. The two camps knew it was inevitable and both lied to their constituencies. Hamas said it would never turn its weapons against other Palestinians, but it did. Abbas said he would not allow a coup to occur, but he did. The ballistics leading to the clash was so obvious over the past few years, rather months. The Hanieh "cabinet" was working extra hours to create a state militia (the "executive force") and put it under the ministry of interior. Instead of a police force, the "executive units" looked more like a modernized Taliban.
The latter became the pillar of the coup last week. The Fatah militiamen and the Presidential guard were fully aware of the mounting threat but Mahmoud Abbas never gave them the order to strike first. The reason is clear: Abu Mazen made the choice to appoint Hanieh as a Prime Minister and thus couldn't send his forces to eliminate his own government: He needed an alibi. While many critics in the West – rightly so – blame Abbas for not acting earlier, reality in Palestine is a little bit more complex. Abbas had perhaps the constitutional power to disband the cabinet and had enough forces to resist the "Talibanization" of Gaza, but he lacked the legitimacy to do so in the context of the dominant political culture in the Palestinian national community. Here is why:
Political Culture
For decades, the PLO, then followed by Hamas and PIJ in the 1980s, produced a one way ideological path to the solution of the crisis: the destruction of the state of Israel. Hence, when in 1993 a breakthrough occurred via the Oslo process, the heavy machine of the Palestinian Authority wasn't even able to reverse the ideological trend fully. Arafat himself wasn't capable (some say unwilling because he was one of its founders) to reign in on radicalism. This dominant "ideological culture" loomed over the public discourse in the territories and of course in the regional Palestinian Diaspora. Hamas and PIJ took advantage of the radicalized discourse to shield them selves from any criticism as they developed their suicide bombing tactics. In other words, even though the PA resented Hamas and was practically in a state of undeclared civil war with the latter, it was nevertheless unable to utter the word "terrorist" about a group which was launching attacks on Israel. Abbas was locked in an equation that forced him to wait for the Jihadists to strike first and hard. He was bound by an ideological culture created by his predecessors.
Hamas's final leap
So why did Hamas decide to proceed to the final leap? The short answer: Because it is moving to the next stage of its goals. Hamas as a movement was patient for 21 years until it reached two major benchmarks: One, its consolidation within Gaza. Two, the fact that it formed a "government." Western political culture rarely understands the "long term plans" of the Jihadists. The second benchmark wasn't in Hamas' hands but in the axis'. The blitzkrieg waged by Haniah's men against Fatah and Abbas' positions inside the enclave was strategically "ordered" by the Ayatollahs' regime in the global movements to crumble Peace processes and democratic movements. The chess players in Tehran and Damascus are racing to crumble the situations in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and within the Palestinian Territories. Regionally, Hamas is a pawn moved around by its funding sources, hence it responds to the latter's strategic orders. While domestic tensions with Fatah are the changing variable, the orders from Tehran are the central matrix. As for Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza leaps at Khamenei's clock. The calculations made by both partners, in Palestine and Iran (as well as in Syria ) were thorough and followed an extremely detailed study of the situation of the foe, both Abbas and the United States. Hamas preparations to strike (as well as Hezbollah's in Lebanon) were parallel to the weakening of America's resolve against Ahmedinijad and Assad.
Last year's congressional elections in the U.S. were read positively by the "axis" not in terms of partisan results but in terms of divisions which would affect U.S. foreign policy. The offensives led by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza few months after the issuing of the Baker-Hamilton report are organically linked to the latter. When bipartisan advice to the president recommended "talking" to the Iranian and Syrian regime about the "future of the region," followed by a high level visit to Assad led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi; the "axis" kitchen gave the green light to the spring offensives. In their minds, the anti-democracy planners of the region projected a non-response by Washington. Hamas' offensive against Fatah finds its roots in the perceived general mollification in the U.S. and in the belief that Israel has been significantly contained in Lebanese and Palestinian affairs.
Hamas's gains
By launching a coup-like multidirectional offensive against all sites of Fatah, PA and presidential services in the enclave, Hamas took out the capacities for a counterattack by its opponents. In other words, Hanieh's forces had to take over "all" positions of their enemies, with the high price in human casualties only because they (Hamas) couldn't afford leaving any type of holes in Gaza, which could be used by Abbas as beachheads. From this perspective, military analysts can understand the logic of Hamas brutality: it was part of a psychological deterrence, a type of terrorism, applied against any Palestinian who would dare consider retaliation. Gaza had to be cleansed from all Palestinian security presence other than Hamas (and its allies) in a very brief moment. This may explain the beheadings, torture, executions and other horrors committed by the Jihadists in the enclave. Hamas' brutality bought repugnant images never seen by Palestinians before, even at the hands of whom they believe were their worse enemies in Israel, Jordan and Lebanon over four decades. The Jihadi massacre of PA and Fatah members and their relatives will create shock and awe among the civilian population in Gaza and beyond. Hamas wanted this treatment a la Taliban to serve as a deterrent within its own new borders, but no one knows exactly how the extreme bloodshed by Hamas will work in terms of reaction. For Palestinian political sociology could produce different and possibly opposed reactions, but it is too early to judge.
However, the "Palestinian-Taliban," now in charge of the zone can only go forward. With all ties to Mahmoud Abbas broken, the Ismael Hanieh (Gaza) – Khaled Mishaal (Damascus) junta has to rapidly consolidate its grip over Gaza and even begin a campaign to destabilize the West Bank. A Hamas-only "regime" in Gaza, free from the PA international commitments would most likely resort to transform the enclave into a super-bastion for Jihad. This would include:
1. A mass mobilization, in an attempt to levy an Army of more than 60,000 fighters. Hamas' expectation is to see Iran and eventually Syria and Hezbollah heavily involved in providing weapons and training. But such a projection could be mitigated by international opposition.
2. The creation of dozens of "Fallujahs" in the strip in anticipation of an "outside" offensive at some point. A series of no-surrender fortresses to deter any would-be attacking force.
3. An attempt to deploy a wider and more complex battery of missiles while using the civilian population as shields.
4. Use civilian travel to the West Bank to insert cells and individuals inside the PA territories.
Link up with the Hamas supporters within the Palestinian camps in Lebanon, Jordan and also inside Israel.
5 The Gaza "regime," free from Abbas supervision, will activate its overseas operations (including in the United States and the West) to deter potential American and international reprisals in the future.
6. Last but not least, the Palestinian-Taliban could become the recipient of future Iranian non-conventional weaponry, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
Western response
In view of the above, a Western response is strategically obligatory but not necessarily automatically. The rise of an Iranian-backed military entity between the Israeli and Egyptian borders, with an access to the Mediterranean is a direct threat to Arab moderates, U.S. and Western presence, and the peace process between Palestinians and Israelis. Hence, other than Iran and Syria's regimes, this new reality isn't very attractive to the region. But the bigger question now is unavoidably the following: what can be done and by whom?
The Israelis have the military might, but because of many obvious reasons, and aside from last resort defense in a regional war, they shouldn't use it alone: it would –according to projections and lessons from Lebanon – give Hamas all that it needs: legitimacy. The PA units of Abbas should be the ones to counter this project but can't win now: they've just lost all their bases in Gaza and are too weak to defeat Hamas at the present stage. An international force dispatched to the area would be fought by the Jihadists, both locally and internationally with barbaric terror. Without a strong international commitment under UN Security Council special resolutions, a multinational force at this point would be obsolete. The Arab moderates, particularly Egypt have a direct and vital interest in opposing the rise of a Taliban-regime in Gaza. The bombings by al Qaeda in the Sinai over the past two years are only the appetizers to what is to come if such an "emirate" is established. But Egypt needs an Arab backing, which could be fought against by Syria, and ironically too by Qatar, the new champion of the Islamists in the region. Finally, the U.S. is engaged in Iraq and in Afghanistan and its units are called upon in various hot spots around the world: Marines landing in Gaza is not the best idea for now.
So what is the answer to the question and is there one? In fact, as in the cases of Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Somalia, the answers are hard to find because it took a long time for the victims of Jihadism, in this case the Palestinians, to realize how deep the problem was (and is).
But I do argue that a strategic response to the challenge of "Hamastan" is possible under a set of conditions, the most important of which is coordination between the various parties called upon to address the challenge. A lot of change of attitude must take place in the region and significant change in direction has to develop in Washington and Brussels.
The immediate future
Expect Hamas and its regional allies to do their utmost to consolidate their "acquisition" for now. Iran and Syria will move regionally and internationally in multiple directions to confirm the new status quo. Damascus and Tehran will deploy all skills in the Arab world to waste as much time as possible, and diplomatic "initiatives" will fly all over. Hamas will play two games: One, to deepen the control and widen the defenses of Gaza. Two, to reassure everyone they can that they are no threat. Khaled Mashaal, the Syrian-based boss of Hamas used airtime – generously offered by al Jazeera – to assuage feelings and fears.
"Yes we are Islamists but we aren't establishing a fundamentalist religious state (yet)," he said, repeating almost word-for-word what the spokesperson of the Somali Islamic Courts said after their takeover of Mogadishu earlier this year. "We have good relations with Iran and Syria, but that doesn't mean anything," he continued. Then he offered a panoply of psychological gadgets: Hamas still recognizes Abbas as a president; it would work on liberating the British hostage (before it would grab more in the future); it welcomes Arab initiatives; it will keep the Palestinian flags higher than Hamas'; and to make sure Jihadi energies are still up, the group's leaders pledged they will continue their relentless fight against Israel.
In fact, attacking Israel with missiles and suicide bombers is what Hamas has in mind if its feels the threat would come too close from all opposed parties together. It thinks that striking against the "Jewish entity" would be the best shield against a counterattack by the PA and its allies. Thus, it is important that the government appointed by Mr. Abbas and headed by Salam Fayyad would take the initiative internationally and press for an isolation of the terrorists. The key to the next stage is in the hands of Abbas-Fayyad but in view of Fatah's heavy past, and the significant reforms the movement needs to undertake before it is considered a full partner in the War on Terror, time is now a dangerous factor. It is the temporal space between Abbas cleaning up his enclaves and reforming the PA radically and Hamas taking the offensive into the West Bank while dragging Israel into confrontation. The immediate future of Hamastan needs hyper-skills on behalf of Washington and Brussels to calibrate the response to the regional Syro-Iranian threat.
And until the fog of uncertainties disappears, Palestine is now divided between the equivalent of Afghanistan's "Taliban" and "Mujahideen."
— Dr Walid Phares is a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, D.C., and director of the Future Terrorism Project of the FDD. He is a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels. His most recent books are Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against the West and The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy.
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UK at Highest "Critical" Terror Level
By Jeffrey Imm
Sky News reported that: "[t]he country is now at its highest threat level and means an attack is expected 'imminently'. "The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) raised the level in response to the events of the last 48 hours".
BBC News reports that the UK's national terrorism threat level has been raised to "critical", according to Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. BBC News stated that "The announcement came after a meeting of the government emergencies committee Cobra, following a burning car being driven into a Glasgow airport terminal. Ministers, police and security service officials began their third meeting in three days at 1900 BST, this time with a video link to ministers in Scotland. Cobra met earlier in the day to discuss the two car bombs found in London."
Sky News reported that "During the [Cobra] meeting, chaired by Gordon Brown, ministers discussed deploying troops at UK airports to counter any further terror attacks."
ABC News notes that "[t]he last time the threat level was raised to critical in the United Kingdom was last August after a liquid bomb plot was foiled." ABC News also states: "Although the threat level "critical" is meant to indicate an attack is imminent, in practice the British appear to have reserved its use for after an attack or attempted attack has already occurred and a follow-up attack is imminent."
UK Prime Minster Gordon Brown said "The first duty of the Government is the security and safety of all the British people. So it's right to raise the levels of security at airports and crowded places. I want all British people to be vigilant and support the police. I know the British people will stand together united, resolute and strong."
-- Sky News Video of Gordon Brown statement
The Guardian reports: "Prime Minister Gordon Brown has warned that the terrorist threat to Britain is 'long-term and sustained' and said that security services and the public will have to remain 'constantly vigilant'. In his first broadcast interview since becoming PM on Wednesday, Mr Brown said it was 'clear' that the attacks in London and Glasgow over the past two days were perpetrated by people who were associated with the global Islamist terror network al Qaida."
ABC News also reports that "counter-terrorism analysts estimate that the apparently coordinated attacks in Great Britain are the work of a sleeper cell that could include as many as 20 individuals." The Sunday London Telegraph states of the efforts of counterterrorism forensics specialists in researched the scenes of the attacks in "Botched London plot leaves 'gold mine' of clues". The Daily Mail reports that "MI5 fear bombers were 'off the radar'".
The London Times reports of potential links to potential terrorists who are known to the police: "Some may be known to police and be on the run after escaping Home Office control orders. Those in the frame may be associates of the so-called Crevice gang, which planned to attack the Ministry of Sound nightclub in central London and the Bluewater shopping mall in Kent. Members of the five-man cell, who were jailed for life in April, were directed by 'core' Al-Qaeda figures after training in terror camps in Pakistan. "
The COBRA emergency group is meeting again on Sunday.
British police are searching house in sweeps in northern England and outside of Glasgow. Reuters reports that "Wearing white plastic bodysuits and face masks, police in Glasgow combed several houses near the airport, in the town of Houston, about six miles west of the city. Neighbors said two Asian men had moved into one of the searched houses, a five minute drive from the airport, about a month ago but had kept very much to themselves."
In addition, there have been the following reports of arrests from the Associated Press:
--- 2 Arrested After Car on Fire Rams Glasgow Terminal
--- Police Arrest 2 More in Connection With London, Scotland Terror Incidents -- two suspects were arrested in Cheshire - in addition to two arrested in Glasgow at airport attack -- Cheshire suspects arrested by a joint swoop by specialist officers from London and Birmingham
Sky News reports on Sunday of the arrest of a 5th suspect in Liverpool. The Manchester Evening News provided a follow-up on the Cheshire arrests and also noted that the Liverpool airport is closed.
Sources:
Sky News: UK At Highest Terror Level After Attack -- and -- Brown: 'Be United, Resolute And Strong'
BBC: UK terror threat now 'critical'
Sky News Video of Gordon Brown statement
ABC News: Brits Raise Terror Alert Level to 'Critical'
ABC News: Sleeper Terror Cell on the Loose in U.K.
AP: 2 Arrested After Car on Fire Rams Glasgow Terminal
AP: Police Arrest 2 More in Connection With London, Scotland Terror Incidents
Sky News: Fifth Terror Arrest In Nationwide Hunt -- in Liverpool
Manchester Evening News: Terror arrests on M6 -- Liverpool airport closed
CNN: Glasgow Terrorist Shouts "Allah" in Fighting Police (my title)
London Guardian: PM warns of 'sustained' terror risk
AFP: New crisis talks over terror threat
Reuters: British police comb houses after airport attack
Daily Mail: MI5 fear bombers were 'off the radar'
London Times: Police check Bluewater gang's links to attempt to bomb clubs
(UK) Scotland: Terror Strike at Glasgow Airport
By Jeffrey Imm
Sky News reports another "terror strike" in the United Kingdom today, this time in Scotland at Glasgow Airport. Sky News reports that the latest incident involving a flaming Jeep Cherokee SUV ramming Glasgow Airport terminal "is being treated as a terror attack" -- Sky News video report
Per Sky News:"Two Asian men are being held after a burning Jeep was rammed through the terminal building at Glasgow airport... [s]ince the attack, Blackpool airport has been shutdown and security has been tightened at Newcastle and Edinburgh airports."
Later, Sky News also reported that one of the men "was found wearing a suspicious device". Officers would not say whether it was a suicide belt.
Moreover, Sky News is also reporting: "Hundreds of shocked holidaymakers were in the area at the time, and witnesses said some of them removed gas cylinders from the jeep before it caught fire. There are reports the occupants - described as Asian males - were trying to pour petrol on the flames."
Witness reports state they saw between 2 and 4 "Asian males" in the Jeep SUV, and some witness reports stated that they saw molotov cocktails in the Jeep SUV.
BBC reports witnesses stating it appeared the men deliberately tried to set the car on fire. "It looked like they had Molotov cocktails with them... They sort of burst them round about the flames to make sure the car would go up big style."
BBC reports that: "Strathclyde Police said two people had been arrested and detained in connection with the incident. The airport has been evacuated and all flights suspended following the incident at 1515 BST. "
UK Channel 4 states "The police say at the moment they don't know if this is linked to yesterday's foiled car bomb attacks in London, but with witnesses talking of the car trying to ram the entrance and the men holding things that looked like petrol bombs - those at the airport are in little doubt this was a car bomb attack."
CNN reports that "Witnesses describe one of the Jeep's three passengers shouting 'Allah' as a he fought with police and a second man set himself on fire. 'He was shouting something. 'Allah,' something, ''Allah.' Every time he threw a punch, he was saying 'Allah.' "
ITN News states: "Downing Street have announced that Prime Minister Gordon Brown will chair a meeting of the Government's Cobra emergency contingencies committee later to discuss the incident." The London Times reports that "A Home Office spokesman said that the official security alert level remains at 'severe', as it has been for some time." London Times also reported that "The Queen is in Scotland today for the inauguration of Scotland's third Parliament".
The US "is boosting security presence at airports in the wake of terrorist acts in London and Glasgow", the White House confirmed to FOX News.
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UPDATE ON ARRESTS
Associated Press reports on arrests:
--- 2 Arrested After Car on Fire Rams Glasgow Terminal
--- Police Arrest 2 More in Connection With London, Scotland Terror Incidents -- two suspects were arrested in Cheshire - in addition to two arrested in Glasgow at airport attack -- Cheshire suspects arrested by a joint swoop by specialist officers from London and Birmingham
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ABC News reports that a senior US law enforcement officer states that "U.S. law enforcement officials received intelligence reports two weeks ago warning of a possible terror attack in Glasgow against "airport infrastructure or aircraft'".
ABC News also reports that "counter-terrorism analysts estimate that the apparently coordinated attacks in Great Britain are the work of a sleeper cell that could include as many as 20 individuals."
Sources:
Sky News: 'Terror Strike' As Burning Jeep Hits Glasgow Airport
Sky News video report
BBC: Blazing car crashes into airport
BBC: Eyewitness 'tackled' burning man
CNN: Blazing car rammed into Glasgow Airport
UK Channel 4: Two arrested after Glasgow car ram
ITN News: Car smashed into Glasgow Airport
The London Times: Blazing car driven into Glasgow Airport terminal
FOX News: U.S. Orders Boost of Airport Security in Wake of London, Glasgow Terrorist Acts
Sky News: Brown: 'Be United, Resolute And Strong'
ABC News: US Warned of Glasgow Threat Two Weeks Ago
ABC News: Sleeper Terror Cell on the Loose in U.K.
CNN: Glasgow Terrorist Shouts "Allah" in Fighting Police (my title)
ULFA’s Killing Spree Continues in Northeast India
By Animesh Roul
Four blasts, four deaths and over fifty injured. Now this has become order of the day in Assam. Suspected ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) militants once again triggered powerful bomb blasts within a short span of time in busy market places in Tinsukia district of Assam on June 30. Three people have reportedly died and 20 others sustained injuries when couple of simultaneous blasts took place at the fish and vegetable market in Tinsukia town. Exactly one hour later another explosion occurred near a Cinema Hall at Doom Dooma in the same district killing one person and hurting 12 others. Elsewhere in the State another explosion took place in the Karbi Anglong district injuring 13 critically.
Just a day before, a joint team of Paramilitary and police personnel apprehended six ULFA militants with huge arms and ammunition that included 3.5 kg of RDX, some Chinese made grenades and 4 kgs of detonators from their hide out in Murkusiapara near Indo-Bhutan border. The security forces were searching an abducted government official who is later found dead on Saturday. The deceased, P.C Ram, the executive director of the Food Corporation of India was abducted by the ULFA militants in mid-April, along with his driver, who was later released. The militants reportedly demanded INR 21 crore for the official's release.
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London Car Bomb Found; Second Car Bomb and Suspect Identified (updated)
By Jeffrey Imm
In London today, a car bomb was defused outside of a central London nightclub at 2 AM (British Time), targeting up to 1,700 people with a combination of gasoline bombs and reportedly a trunk full of nails.
London police were contacted when witnesses saw a Mercedes being driven erratically near London West End night club Tiger Tiger, and the driver jumped out of the automobile and ran away. The car was reported to have two gasoline canisters and be full of nails. Witnesses subsequently saw gas canisters being removed from a Mercedes automobile by police at 4 AM BDT.
According to the Daily Mail, the apparent target, the Tiger Tiger nightclub in Haymarket, had up to 1,700 people inside. A Daily Mail senior anti-terrorist source said: "This was a viable device which could have caused massive damage and killed hundreds if it had worked. The consequences would have been terrible. This is the scenario that we have dreaded."
Shane Brighton, a counter-terrorism expert, told Sky News: "This is highly unlikely to be an Irish device, given the current state of politics there. Al Qaeda tend to go for symbolic timing."
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UPDATE
Officials confirm plot involves "Islamic extremists" - photo of suspect - second car bomb found - linked to first car bomb - and Internet posting of threat night before bombing attempts
ABC reports: "British police have a 'crystal clear' picture of the man who drove the bomb-rigged silver Mercedes outside a London nightclub" and that he bears 'a close resemblance' to a man arrested by police in connection with another bomb plot but released for lack of evidence. Officials say the suspect had been taken into custody in connection with the case of al Qaeda operative Dhiren Barot. U.S. and British law enforcement officials tell ABC News it is increasingly clear Friday's bomb plot in London involves multliple vehicles, and is described by a senior official as a 'terror plot involving lslamic extremists.' "
A second car bomb was found during the day in London's West End. The Telegraph reports that "Sources revealed that officers examining a Mercedes found in an underground car park off Park Lane this afternoon discovered an explosive device inside. Earlier this afternoon Park Lane was sealed off and Hyde Park evacuated after bomb experts were called in to examine the car. Security alerts caused by the searches brought much of London to a standstill."
FOX News reports that British anti-terror police chief Peter Clarke stated" 'The vehicle was found to contain very similar materials to those that had been found in the first car,' he said. 'There was a considerable amount of fuel and gas canisters. As in the first vehicle, there was also a quantity of nails. This like the first device was potentially viable.' "
CBS News reports that "Hours before London explosives technicians dismantled a large car bomb in the heart of the British capital's tourist-rich theater district, a message appeared on one of the most widely used jihadist Internet forums, saying: 'Today I say: Rejoice, by Allah, London shall be bombed.' This was on the "al Hesbah" chat room by a person who goes by the name "Abu Osama al-Hazeen".
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This type of car bombing plot is typical of other British Jihadist car bomb plots in the past, including both the July 2005 bomb plots, and the Dhiren Barot Jihadist group bomb plots.
--- In July 2005, a number of bombs and components, some packed with nails to cause death and maximum injury, were recovered from a car parked by the July 7 bombers at Luton station.
--- British Jihadist Dhiren Barot pleaded guilty to plotting a series of attacks, including detailed plans to explode limousines packed with gas cylinders, explosives and nails after leaving them in underground London parking garages or hotels.
Scotland Yard stated that detectives from Counter Terrorism Command were investigating the bomb plot.
Police said they had no warning of an attack. "The police did not have any advance intelligence of this which is worrying," said Paul Wilkinson, chairman of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at St. Andrew's University in Scotland. "They will be concerned there might be other devices in the area or elsewhere in central London because if it is al-Qaeda one of their characteristics is to set off coordinated devices.''
This came on the second day of Gordon Brown's role as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, who has urged Britons to remain vigilant following the discovery.
Traffic disruption is ongoing as London police investigate the incident; this includes closing nearby streets, diverting buses, and closing the Piccadilly Circus subway station.
Sources:
London Times: Car bomb defused near London nightclub
London Telegraph: Car bomb found in London's West End
BBC News: Car bomb found in central London
Sky News: Bomb Designed To Cause Devastation
Daily Mail: London on terror alert after 'massive' bomb attack on bar
Bloomberg: U.K. Police Find Explosive Device in Central London (Update6)
ABC: Terror Plot Involves Islamic Extremists; Police Have 'Crystal Clear' Picture of Suspect
Daily Telegraph: Second car bomb found in London's West End
FOX News: Police Find Explosive Device in Second Car in London - same gasoline bomb and nails as first
CBS: Was London Bomb Plot Heralded On Web? Internet Forum Comment From Night Before: "London Shall Be Bombed"
ABC: A Most Lethal Anti-Personnel Bomb Defused : Anatomy of a Bomb in London
Evening Standard: Al Qaeda suspected of massive bomb attack on nightclub
ABC: Car Bomb Found in London 20 Days After al Qaeda Suicide Bomber 'Graduation Ceremony'
FOX: Official: Diffused Bomb in Central London Would Have Caused Significant Damage
Britain's domestic Press Association news agency: Police probe possible Iraq link to London bomb
Bombs find shows outrages on 7/7 and 7/21 were linked
Dhiren Barot: British Terror Plotter Gets Life In Prison
Steven Emerson on Fox News, June 29, 2007 - discussing the London car bomb
Gaza: The Next Terrorist Safe Haven?
By Matthew Levitt
Could Hamas members in the Gaza Strip join ranks with the global jihadist movement led by al-Qaeda? There is merit to this question, given the recent Hamas takeover of the territory and al-Qaeda's call for Muslims around the world to finance and arm Hamas (see Jake Lipton, "The War of Words between Hamas and al-Qaeda," PolicyWatch no. 1254). The interpersonal relationships between Hamas and al-Qaeda members present a significant danger. Although, as an organization, Hamas is not about to join al-Qaeda, individual Hamas members could . Moreover, a lawless Gaza -- like Iraq's Anbar province, Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas, and Somalia -- could quickly become a safe haven for both homegrown and imported jihadists.
The full article is available here.
HLF Trial Update: Muslim Brotherhood on the Witness Stand
By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)
Federal prosecutors have released their witness list for the upcoming trial against the alleged Hamas-front group, the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) and the lineup is interesting.
In addition to CT Blog contributor Matt Levitt, the government is planning to call Abdurahman Alamoudi to testify on “the Muslim Brotherhood and the defendant’s involvement in the Muslim Brotherhood.”
Alamoudi, currently serving a 23-year sentence after pleading guilty in 2004 to illegal financial dealings with Libya (and admitting to his part in an al-Qaeda linked plot to assassinate then Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia), is the former head of a Muslim Brotherhood-linked organization, the American Muslim Council. If he is forthcoming, his testimony could prove especially interesting in light of the fact that prosecutors have recently named the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) as Muslim Brotherhood front groups in addition to un-indicted co-conspirators in the trial.
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Alamoudi was also on the government’s witness list in the trial against convicted Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative Sami al-Arian, but was never called.
Rome, Georgia-based imam, Mohammed Shorbagi appears on the witness list. In February of this year, Shorbagi was sentenced to over seven years in prison for contributing to Hamas via HLF.
Sayyid Syeed, former Secretary General of ISNA, and current National Director of its Office of Interfaith Relations, is also on the list as a “records custodian” to testify about “bank records of the Holy Land Foundation.” Syeed is appearing as a representative of the North American Islamic Trust (NAIT), also named by the HLF prosecutors as a Muslim Brotherhood group and an un-indicted co-conspirator in the case. NAIT, a subsidiary of ISNA, holds the deeds to more than 25% of the mosques and Islamic centers around the U.S. What NAIT does not control, it attempts to acquire, even against the wishes of the mosque’s membership (free registration required) and sometimes by force.
The HLF prosecutors will have high-ranking members of the American branch of the Muslim Brotherhood on the stand and under oath, with Alamoudi potentially being especially cooperative in an effort to reduce his sentence. So while the HLF trial will provide great insight into the Hamas infrastructure in the United States, it is also shaping up to potentially be an important and revealing event, detailing the history and structure of the Muslim Brotherhood’s activities in the United States.
Jury selection for the trial is currently slated to begin in mid-July. « Close It
Navigating the Sudan Sanctions Regime
By Michael Jacobson
On May 29, 2007, the Bush administration unveiled a long-anticipated package of sanctions against Sudan, designating thirty Sudanese companies for their ties to the regime of President Omar al-Bashir, as well as two government officials, a rebel leader, and a transportation company for their role in the Darfur genocide. In announcing the targeted companies and individuals, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated that Washington was "calling attention to their horrific acts" and attempting to "further isolate them from the international community." Although these sanctions do not impose significant additional legal restrictions on business dealings with Sudan, they could nevertheless have some impact if they are effectively implemented. With China possibly standing in the way of further UN sanctions, however, the United States must do everything it can to maximize the impact of its own unilateral sanctions programs.
The full article is available here
Acceleration of Syrian-Iranian meddling in Lebanon
By Olivier Guitta
Things are heating up rapidly around Lebanon.
It is not only Fatah Al Islam fighting the Lebanese Army but also attacks against UNIFIL and now Syria and Iran preparing for a possible Hezbollah-Israel war.
For proof, this story from The Croissant:
Iran providing Syria with Revolutionary Guards and weapons
According to Syrian sources, passengers flying out of Damascus airport from last Tuesday to Thursday were sent home by authorities because of an alleged general breakdown.
The cancellation of all the flights was rather due to the fact that a massive airlift between Tehran and Damascus was under way and needed to proceed with the utmost discretion.
Six planes flew round the clock between the two capitals to bring in weapons and Revolutionary Guards to the Syrian capital.
These men and weapons are going to be sent to Lebanon to help Hezbollah prepare for another war.
The War of Words between Hamas and al-Qaeda
By Matthew Levitt
On June 14, Hamas evicted Fatah security forces from the Gaza Strip, establishing full control over the territory. Eleven days later, al-Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri issued a statement calling on Muslims to support Hamas fighters -- the latest in an ongoing, public dialogue in which al-Qaeda and Hamas leaders have alternatively decried and praised each other's organizations. An analysis of this public exchange reveals that al-Qaeda is uncomfortable with Hamas leaders even as it fully supports the movement's militants. This strategy may indicate that al-Qaeda views Gaza as a promising sanctuary for support and future operations -- and the "Hamas mujahedin" (and their vast tunnel smuggling network) as the pathway to establishing a foothold there.
The complete article, authored by Washington Institute Intern Jake Lipton, is available here.
Middle East Quarterly: Jihad's New Leaders
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Over the past year, a number of prominent terrorists -- including Shamil Basayev and Abu Hafs al-Urdani -- were killed on the battlefield, and there have also been a host of less publicized kills and captures. But although the death of any prominent terrorist is a victory for the United States and its allies, our terrorist enemies possess what CIA director General Michael Hayden has described as a "'deep bench' of lower-ranking personnel capable of stepping up to assume leadership responsibilities." As new terrorist leaders emerge, terrorist strategy is shifting discernibly.
My colleague Kyle Dabruzzi and I have a new article in the Summer 2007 issue of Middle East Quarterly examining how jihadist strategy is changing. An excerpt:
They may represent disparate communities, but each of these new terrorist leaders employs similar strategies. First, they are more aware of their international image than their predecessors. While they seek to shock and strike fear into their enemies, they also wish to appear reasonable to their constituents and the larger Muslim population. While the Taliban engaged in massacres, and Zarqawi distributed videos showing the beheading of captives, the new leaders minimize overt acts of brutality that could undermine public support. Second, the new jihadists consider management of civil society more than did their predecessors. They do not wish to preside over failed states. The Islamic Courts Union actually raised Somalia’s standard of living modestly. Third, these new leaders have exploited advanced communications technologies to improve their outreach and forge broader alliances. It should not surprise that jihadist movements have grown stronger.
Examination of each of their cases and areas of operation demonstrates how these new jihadist leaders have enacted these new strategies.
Somalia: Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys
On June 5, 2006, the fundamentalist Islamic Courts Union (ICU) seized Mogadishu and, over the next several months, consolidated control over the country’s other major cities. However, as they moved on Baidoa, the last bastion of the U.N.-recognized government, Ethiopian forces swept through the country, forcing the ICU from Mogadishu and other major cities. The Ethiopian government remained concerned about the ICU because its predecessor and major component, Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya (AIAI), had sponsored Islamic separatist groups in the Ethiopian border province of Ogaden. Nevertheless, the ICU’s brief success catapulted it into a model for other jihadist groups. Twice, Al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called for Islamic fighters to flock to Somalia to support the ICU.
Despite their routing, the ICU leadership survived the Ethiopian advance. ICU leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has called for insurgency, and the U.N.’s Monitoring Group on Somalia has warned that "the ICU is fully capable of turning Somalia into what is currently an Iraq-type scenario, replete with roadside and suicide bombers, assassinations, and other forms of terrorist and insurgent-type activities." Already, there are initial signs that Ahmed's threat is not empty. In early 2007, ICU militants attacked African Union peacekeeping forces and attempted to assassinate President Abdullahi Yusuf.
The man most likely to lead the insurgency is Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. As a 42-year-old Somali army colonel fighting in the 1977 war against Ethiopia, he won a medal for bravery. He then worked to establish himself as a respected religious figure and also a political leader with considerable clout in Islamic extremist circles. In 1991, Aweys co-founded and led AIAI, which sought to create an Islamic state in the Horn of Africa. Then, starting in 2006, he served as head of the ICU's consultative council in which capacity he shaped ICU policies, which brought a strict version of Shari'a (Islamic law) to Somalia but in a manner that was more consistent with economic growth and civil society than previous jihadist attempts at imposing Islamic law.
The article is not yet posted on Middle East Quarterly's web site, but the full text (minus the footnotes) can be found here, at the web site for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. For more on this topic, see an adaptation from the MEQ article that appeared at The Daily Standard this morning, as well as a recent symposium in which I participated at Front Page Magazine that explores evolving jihadist strategies.
New from the NEFA "Target America" Series: "The PATH Tunnel Plot"
By Evan Kohlmann
On the heels of the foiled plots targeting Fort Dix and JFK Airport, the Nine Eleven Finding Answers (NEFA) Foundation announces the release of the fifth in a series of reports examining the multitude of terrorist plots directed at the United States since 9/11. This week's report details the plot to bomb the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) tunnel connecting New York and New Jersey. Describing the plot, which allegedly was directed by "a self-initiating foreign cell that had access to al-Qaeda's connections," FBI New York Director Mark Mershon asserted that the planned attack involved "martyrdom" and "explosives."
This week (June 27, 2007): The PATH Tunnel Plot
See also:
Week of June 18, 2007: The East Coast Buildings Plot
Week of June 11, 2007: The Illinois Shopping Mall Plot
Week of June 4, 2007: The L.A. Plot to Attack U.S. Military and Jewish Targets
Week of June 4, 2007: The Miami Plot to Bomb Federal Buildings and the Sears Tower
U.S. Efforts against Terrorism Financing: A View from the Private Sector
By Matthew Levitt
On June 15, 2007, Robert Werner addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum seminar series. Managing director of Merrill Lynch's Monetary and Financial Control Group since December 2006, he previously served as director of the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and, before that, as director of the department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Mr. Werner is therefore uniquely positioned to comment on the private sector perspective on the kinds of programs he oversaw at OFAC and FinCEN.
It may surprise some that Mr. Werner does not believe that the what is required of the private sector is overly burdensome. He does, however, correctly point out that for the private sector to be a full partner in the effort to combat terror finances the government will have to find ways to share some classified information with the private sector. There is precedent for this, and it can and should be done.
The full summary of Mr. Werner's remarks are available here.
No Significant Spike in Violence Following Latest Askariya Attack
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
The day after the al-Askariya Mosque in Samarra, Iraq was bombed for the second time in a year and a half, I wrote that the second bombing was "potentially disastrous." Analysts feared that, similar to the first attack on the al-Askariya Mosque on February 22, 2006, this provocation could spark sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shias. Fortunately, about two weeks after the event, Iraq has not witnessed a major spike in violence.
The bombing has indeed had an effect on the ground. According to a senior U.S. military intelligence officer, sectarian tensions on the streets of Iraq "can be cut with a butter knife." More Sunnis have been subjected to harassment, but there is a significant difference between harassment and violence. It is true that some violence over the last couple of weeks has been linked to the June 13 Askariya bombing. For example, six Sunni mosques were attacked shortly after it occurred. Moreover, the bombing has served some of al-Qaeda’s objectives. It has bolstered al-Qaeda's standing by frightening Sunni Muslims living in Shia-dominated areas. It has also forced U.S. troops to increasingly assume a policing role to stop violence from escalating. By forcing the U.S. military to play more of a policing role, al-Qaeda's attack on the shrine has diminished U.S. troops' ability to fight against al-Qaeda. This is particularly significant now as military operations intensify against al-Qaeda's base of power in Diyala.
But overall violence has not spiked compared to the levels that preceded the bombing. In contrast, about 3,000 Iraqis were killed in sectarian violence following the first attack on the Askariya shrine in February 2006. Government analysts were concerned that violence might spike following the Friday afternoon congregational jumuah prayers, but for two straight weeks the prayers have not been accompanied by a spike in violence. Iraq has seen a number of street demonstrations. But demonstrations are not the same as violence, and they can in fact serve a healthy purpose: one of the theories underlying our right to free speech is that it serves as a "safety valve." It's better to allow people to voice their grievances, rather than forcing grievances underground until they erupt into violence.
Why hasn't violence peaked after this attack? The curfew and vehicle ban that were implemented in Baghdad following the bombing surely played a role. Also, after the first Askariya bombing, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Ayatollah Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim called for calm, but the political elements didn't really back them up. This time U.S. and Iraqi political authorities have been willing from the very outset to use force to back up the calls for calm. There are surely other reasons as well: there may even have been truth to the hope in some circles that most people who would be willing to engage in serious sectarian violence were already doing so. But the American and Iraqi handling of this bombing has played a positive role.
Of course, the situation could get worse. After the first Askariya bombing, the enormous impact the event would have on the course of the Iraq war was not apparent for several months. But the relative calm that has prevailed after this bombing provides reason for cautious optimism.
Kyle Dabruzzi contributed research to this analysis.
Al-Qaeda Video Supports Hamas, Calls for Sharia in Gaza
By Jeffrey Imm
Al-Qaeda's deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, called for Muslims to support Hamas with money, weapons, and information, as well as urging united efforts of mujahedeen after its takeover of Gaza.
A copy of the video can be downloaded here at Laura Mansfield site.
In the 25:17 as-Sahab-produced video released over the Internet to Jihadist web sites today, titled "Forty Years Since the Fall of al-Quds [Jerusalem]", shows a still image of Zawahiri with an audio track. The video begins with a short clip from an October 2001 video of Bin Laden and Zawahiri together. SITE Institute has issued a press release on this video.
Among the Zawahiri statements in the video:
-- Al-Zawahiri urged Hamas to implement Islamic law in Gaza, telling it, "Taking over power is not a goal but a means to implement God's word on earth."
-- "Unite with mujahedeen (holy warriors) in Palestine ... and with all mujahedeen in the world in the face of the upcoming attack where Egyptians and Saudis are expected to play part of it"
-- "Provide them (Hamas) with money, do your best to get it there, break the siege imposed on them by crusaders and Arab leaders traitors"
-- "Facilitate weapons smuggling from neighboring countries."
-- "We can support them by targeting the crusader and Zionist interest wherever we can"
Per SITE Institute translation, "Zawahiri urges support for the Mujahideen in Palestine in the face of additional aggression" and that "Zawahiri anticipates a coming attack on Gaza to rid Hamas of its positions, an attack in which even Egyptians and Saudis will participate, and declares in regard of Hamas: 'a victory of Hamas is a victory of Palestine'. In this speech, Zawahiri sees the greater enemy in Fatah, supported by the West, moving against Hamas, and this act in tandem with Hamas’ movements against Fatah, perceived as a return to jihad, causes a degree of softening. However, he still reminds Hamas that it must hold steadfast to the Shari’a of Allah and not vacillate in this regard, and also unite with other Mujahideen in the face of the coming attack."
Per SITE Institute translation, "Toward the end of his speech he calls for the defeat of the United States, and states: 'Don't believe those who tell you that America is not defeated. To the contrary. America is being defeated now in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia, and it will be defeated in Palestine.' "
Resources:
SITE Institute: "Forty Years Since the Fall of al-Quds [Jerusalem]" -- A Speech by Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri Produced by as-Sahab Media
Laura Mansfield: New message from Zawahiri: Forty Years Since the Fall of Jerusalem
Laura Mansfield: Zawahiri Video
AP: Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri Calls on Hamas to Implement Islamic Sharai Rule in Gaza
Assam: ULFA Mayhem Continues Despite Government's Peace Overtures
By Animesh Roul
In the face of continued military crackdown and counter insurgency operations, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) has once again succeeded in perpetrating mayhem in violence-hit Northeast Indian state of Assam. On June 23 morning, suspected ULFA militants triggered a blast near a busy market, close to Machkhowa Mosque, killing at least six people and left 20 others injured. The bomb was reportedly kept on a bicycle which was ferrying vegetables to the market, '' according to the police.
Stringent security measures are in place as the city is hosting Asian Grand Prix, a major sporting event organized by the Asian Athletics Association at the Sarusajai Sports Complex and a religious gathering called Ambubachi Mela (Fair) in the vicinity of Kamkhya temple where millions of devotees are visiting during the ongoing four day long event. As per earlier reports, police has been screening every visitor as both these venues are high on the agenda for the ULFA to strike and also claimed to have busted an ULFA plans to disrupt the Games.
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Earlier on June 13, suspected ULFA had triggered similar kind of explosion near a busy market in Kamrup where two people got killed and as many as 40 people sustained injuries. A similar method was used where the bomb was attached to a bicycle, as in the latest Machkhowa blast.
Late last month, on May 26, a suspected ULFA triggered blast killed at least seven people with more than 20 people injured in the Athgaon locality of Guwahati city. The explosives were packed in a three-wheeled abandoned auto-rickshaw.
According to a recent report published in Assam Tribune Daily, ULFA is responsible for the rising violence in the State. As per the report, citing data from police and security agencies, in 2006 there were more than 160 incidents of violence, in which more than 80 civilians, 14 security force personnel and six ULFA militants were killed. This year, till June 2007), more than 100 civilians, three security personnel and five ULFA militants were killed and 280 have been injured, according to the report.
These blasts are occurring in regular intervals despite Indian government’s willingness to resume the stalled peace talks with the militant outfit. Three conditions were conveyed to the facilitator Indira Goswami by National Security Adviser M K Narayanan during their meeting in Delhi just couple of days before the Kamrup market blast. The three conditions include a direct communication from either ULFA Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa or military chief Paresh Barua indicating their willingness for peace talks with the Government without any condition and talks should be held at the presence of emissaries of the either side. ULFA issue along with cross-border security, including clamping down on ULFA activities in Bangladesh and illegal immigration issue will be raised in the forthcoming two-day Foreign Secretary-level talks in Dhaka on June 25-26.
It’s surprising why both Center and State governments are still considering peace talks and safe passage to ULFA militants even though the outfit continues to kill people and spread terror in Northeast India. However, though New Delhi has shown interest for talks, presently it is not taking any liberal decision to cease ongoing counter-offensives and on the release demand of five jailed ULFA leaders. « Close It
The Bush Administration's Outreach Program to Islamists
By Douglas Farah
The New York Sun writes that the Bush administration is quietly laying the groundwork for reaching out to the Muslim Brotherhood. What it doesn't say is that the Muslim Brotherhood, through its chapter in the United States (CAIR, ISNA et al) have already launched one of the most successful outreach programs of any group in the country.
The U.S. government has
formally named these groups as part of the Muslim Brotherhood. They have met recently with senior leaders of the Pentagon, DHS, DOD and have been in the White House across two administrations.
Only the Justice Department's naming of the groups as unindicted co-conspirators in the Holy Land case kept these same groups from being the stars at an ill-conceived "outreach" event hosted by AG Alberto Gonzalez.
So outreach to the Brotherhood, especially in this country, is not a new policy at all. Everyone from the FBI to the NSC has been bullied, pushed, cajoled and duped into meeting with them, despite their well-documented ties to terrorism, terrorist organizations and terrorist leaders.
The question to me is not whether to talk to the Muslim Brotherhood, here, in Egypt or its international structure. One can have legitimate reasons for doing so. The question is the underlying premise of the conversations. If we recognize they are a political-religious movement committed to the cause of creating a unified Islamic state across the world, including the United States, and will use any means available to do so-and still think there are strategic interests the dictated discussions-then that is legitimate.
But we are being told repeatedly and erroneously that these groups are our friends and possible allies. And that is simply not true. My full blog is here.
Lebanon, Gaza, the Broader Syro-Iranian Offensive
By Walid Phares
The latest dramatic military and terror events in Gaza and Lebanon can be viewed from a regional geopolitical perspective: A Syro-Iranian axis offensive on its (their) primarily western front stretching along the Mediterranean coast.
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In previous analyses I have argued that the Tehran-Damascus axis is involved in a regional campaign to seize as much physical terrain and score as many victories across the Middle East in order to consolidate their strategic posture before 2008; the year they believe Americans will limit – perhaps diminish — their moves because of the U.S. presidential campaign season.
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Iran's and Syria's offensives have been well-coordinated on battlefields across the Levant since last January, with a clear escalation since early spring.
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Following are the main fronts:
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Eastern Front:
There have been multiple reports and much evidence of arming and supplying neo-Taliban and other Jihadi forces in Afghanistan in order that they may engage U.S.-led NATO forces and provoke chaos across the country.
Central Front:
The axis has intensified its actions against U.S. and coalition forces, as wells as Iraqi civilians in an attempt to create more sectarian tension, with the greater objective of disrupting “surge” operations in particular, and generally eroding U.S. and allied efforts in Iraq.
Western Front:
The axis has unleashed two blitzkrieg-like offensives — one on the upper western front (Lebanon). The other within the lower western front (Gaza).
1. In Lebanon, the Tehran-Damascus axis has had as its goals to crumble the Seniora Government, cripple the Lebanese Army, and crush the Cedars Revolution. To accomplish these, two approaches have been taken:
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a) Terrorism: The assassination of MP Walid Eido in Beirut, other bombing attacks including car-bombs targeting and killing civilians.
b) Fatah al Islam attacks against the Lebanese Army in Nahr al bared and Tripoli in the north.
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In Lebanon, the axis is expected to launch more terror attacks. We are looking at all Syro-Iranian assets in Lebanon, monitoring which ones will be deployed to battle next, and when.
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2. The axis has also been involved in Gaza where they surprised observers with their decision to throw Hamas fully against Fatah and the PA in the enclave. The plan to seize control of Gaza was projected a long time ago. But the timing was at the discretion of the Syro-Iranian war room, which funds and strategically controls Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
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The heavy fighting in Gaza represents an important decision made by the regional masters: The acceleration of the axis offensive so that by the end of summer, four battlefields will be fully ignited against the U.S., its allies and regional democracies: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza (Palestinian territories). But just as important is the fact that an entire Taliban-like zone has been established on the eastern Mediterranean under Hamas control and with Syro-Iranian backing. Our expectations are that, short of a large-scale counter-operation aimed at dislodging the "coup" in the enclave, the area will become a massive terror base of operations.
In the final analysis, the axis' offensive on their western front is peaking. The immediate goal of the axis is to protect the Syrian regime’s western (Lebanon) flank and southern (Israel) flank.
Thrusting in Lebanon and spreading chaos, also would potentially shield Bashar al Assad from the upcoming UN investigation into the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (and others).
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Seizing Gaza would, in their estimation, curtail U.S. efforts in Iraq, and pressure Israel away from Syria and Hezbollah. The Jihadi strategic mind is in its full offensive mode in the region.
Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the author of The War of Ideas « Close It
Syria's master plan to destroy Lebanon again
By Olivier Guitta
In fact, President Bashar Assad never hid his intentions that if Syria were to leave Lebanon, he would burn down the country. It has been now way over 2 years after the murder of Lebanese ex-prime Minister Rafik Hariri and Syria is still free to create havoc in Lebanon, killing left and right, supporting Fatah Al Islam's attacks on the Lebanese Army, propping up the FPLP-GC, Fatah Intifada, Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
All this happening under the nose of the international community, the UN, the UNIFIL forces and despite a united front against Syria at the UN with the French and the Americans leading the charge.
Regarding Syria's latest maneuvers, from The Croissant, comes this story:
"According to Syrian sources close to the regime, Syrian president Bashar Assad went berserk when his foreign minister Walid Al Moallem handed him his report on the Saturday Cairo meeting of Arab foreign ministers. In fact, Al Moallem explained that Saudi Arabia and Egypt had firmly denounced the Syrian interference in Lebanon and Syrian's support to Palestinian terror groups looking to destabilize Lebanon.
Assad allegedly said: “They will see how I am going to plow Lebanon”.
Also the Katushya rockets fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel on Sunday evening were only the sign that Assad was acting on his threats.
The FPLP-GC terrorists of Ahmed Jibril (based in Damascus) are behind the bombing of Israel and used rockets modified in Iran. The FPLP-GC has allegedly prepared more than 80 rockets of this type to bomb Israel and open a new front while the Lebanese army is on the verge of finishing off Fatah Al Islam in Nahr El Bared.
Last, the Syrian Army is on high alert at the Lebanese border as are the Palestinian groups (FPLP-GC and Fatah Intifada) in the same area. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s refusal to retaliate has set back the Syrian plan."
Banning Hizbollah in Europe (prepared statement)
By Matthew Levitt
I submitted written testimony for today's hearing before the Europe Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. My colleague Michael Jacobson testified at the hearing.
Introduction
Pressing our European allies to add Hezbollah to the European Union (EU)'s terrorism list is more important today than ever before. Nearly a year after it dragged both Lebanon and Israel into a devastating war last July, Hezbollah has reportedly restocked its weapons caches and missile arsenals, rebuilt much of its destroyed infrastructure, and capitalized on its ability to hold the Israel Defense Forces at bay (and the political reckoning that followed in Israel) to position itself as an even more dominant player in domestic Lebanese politics as well as the face of resistance and pride in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Hezbollah's proactive support for radical Palestinian elements engaged in acts of terrorism and political violence is central to these groups' success and continues unabated. Renewed rocket attacks into northern Israel this week and the recent Hamas coup in Gaza (which tactically replicated Hezbollah tactics in Southern Lebanon) are just the most recent disturbing signs of how successful this strategy has been. Hezbollah is Syria's primary proxy in Lebanon seeing to Syrian interests in the wake of the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005, playing a particularly disruptive role opposing the establishment of an international tribunal to investigate and try suspects tied to the Hariri and other bombings targeting political and intellectual leaders of the anti-Syrian coalition. Hezbollah operatives are further suspected of training Iraqi insurgents and of sending it own combatants to Iraq.
Hezbollah is particularly active in Europe, primarily engaged in financial and logistical support operations as well as political activity to legitimize its activities in the eyes of the West. An EU designation would unde |
