The Fragmentation of the Traditional Jihadist Structures

By Douglas Farah

One of the extremely significant and accelerating factor in the current development of Islamist groups is the rapid and visible fragmentation of the various jihadist infrastructures.

It seems clear that Iran is increasingly willing to aid non-state armed group, even if they are Sunni. Such seems to be the case with Hamas in Gaza and possibly elements of the al Qaeda structure in Iraq. Of course, this is in addition to the Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, its alliance of convenience with the secular Syrian power structure, its growing influence in nationalist/leftist governments in Latin America and its alleged aid to Salafist/Sunni groups in Somalia.

Another interesting example is Hezbollah's unwillingness to join the armed confrontation with the Sunni/salafist Fatah Islam militants inside the Nahr el-Bared camp. In the past Hezbollah has had a very low tolerance for other armed groups operating in its territory. Now they seem to be not lifting a finger to expel the group or help the government expel them. Quite an interesting attitude.

What is equally clear is that the push for the armed Islamist movement starting NOW, rather than as a gradual, evolutionary process, is winning the day. The old guard of nationalist/secular groups is effectively over. Fatah is the clearest example.

But so is the waning power of corrupt and empty states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt to successfully back, at this point, Islamist movements that do not rely almost entirely on violence and the core _jihadist_ tenets of recreating the caliphate and the eradication of Israel. My full blog is here.

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