Counterterrorism Blog

Middle East experts have to be scratching their heads as they seek to analyze the enigma's posed by Hamas’ takeover of Gaza. Could this be the seminal event that causes a realignment in the interests and actions of key Arab Middle East players and changes all previous assumptions?. Egypt and Jordan have already made it clear that they view Hamas' takeover of Gaza as a grave threat to their own national interests. This is reflected also in recent opinion pieces in the Egyptian and Jordanian Press which point out Hamas’ Muslim Brotherhood origins and continuing close ties with Egyptian radical fundamentalists. There is concern that “Hamas might infect the Islamist movements in the region, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in particular, boost their morale and motivate them to replicate the Gaza example." (See David Kimche's excellent piece in THE JERUSALEM POST)

Egyptian, Jordanian and Saudi leaders are also particularly irked that Hamas is increasingly looking to Iran for sponsorship and support. This includes establishing closer ties with Hezbollah. Hamas Interior Minister Emad Al-Alemi was in Iran July 7th for discussions with his Iran counterpart, Hachemi Rafsandjani. Iran has reportedly provided some $20 million to $30 million to support the Hamas government. Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Abul Gheit was quoted recently as stating : "Iran's policies encouraged Hamas to do what it has done in Gaza and this represents a threat for Egypt's national security, because Gaza is a stone's throw from Egypt."

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, once a supporter of Hamas, has reportedly developed “a new antipathy for Hamas,” as it has moved closer to Hezbollah and Iran. This is reflected also in a growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the Muslim Brotherhood which it long supported as an ally in spreading Wahhabi Salafist theology overseas. Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi clergy are seriously upset that the Muslim Brotherhood is now cosying up to Iran. (See my earlier Blog on this topic)

There are indications that Jordan and Egypt are discretely joining ranks with Israel to give a boast to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. as he solidifies Fatah's hold over the West Bank. This reportedly includes intelligence, and material and financial support. These developments are being played up in the European Press as providing opportunities for a possible new peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians. This means throwing their support also to President Abbas, and to the front line states seeking to contain Hamas.

European leaders still seem befuddled as they try and take advantage of this new situation. A letter sent by 10 EU Foreign Ministers to Tony Blair, in his new capacity as Middle East Envoy, urges Blair to exercise caution and restraint in regard to Hamas. The Foreign Ministers of France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Slovenia and Malta warn Blair not to “push Hamas into a corner, ” but, rather to encourage the reopening of Gaza's borders with Egypt and Israel, the re-establishment of dialogue by Egypt and Saudi Arabia with Hamas, and renewed dialogue between Hamas and Fatah themselves. The text of the letter was published in the July 9th edition of Le Monde. But, trying to push the clock back on Hamas – Fatah relations seems more like wishful thinking than good diplomacy. And one can only wonder what good could come from returning to the instability and insecurity of their previous relationship. And what benefit could possibly be derived from strengthening the role of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood as brokers with Hamas? Now is the time to look forward, not backward.

Sustaining Hamas control in Gaza can serve no positive interest when it comes to Middle East peace. On the contrary Hamas astride Gaza can serve only to exacerbate tensions between moderates and fundamentalists, put Egyptian and Jordanian stability at risk, egg on Hezbollah militancy vis a vis Lebanon and Israel, and fuel tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran whose surrogates are already fighting a civil war in Iraq. The people of Gaza will be left to bear the brunt of these confrontations so long as Hamas remains in control there.