Dawood Ibrahim in the Dock?

By Aaron Mannes

The always turning rumor mill on the Indian-subcontinent is rotating at top speed with tales of the arrest of Dawood Ibrahim and his top deputies Tiger Memon and Chota Shakeel, all presumably residing in Pakistan and wanted by India for their involvement in the 1993 Black Friday bombings in Mumbai which killed 257 people.

A screenwriter would be challenged to develop a character like Dawood Ibrahim – crime lord, terrorist, spy, and high society figure. For a full profile, see this article by friend of the CT Blog David Kaplan.

Ibrahim was the head of D Company, the top mafia in Mumbai. As everywhere else in the world, mafias frequently have ethnic orientations and Ibrahim became a folk hero to Mumbai’s Muslims. With his immense wealth he bought his way into Bollywood, financing top films.

In December 1992 Hindu extremists destroyed the Babri Mosque in Ayodha which sparked communal rioting in nearby Mombai in which 900 people (mostly Muslim) died. Ibrahim is believed to have collaborated with Pakistani intelligence (particularly through his massive smuggling network) to carry out the March 12, 1993 Mumbai bombings. Shortly before the bombings, Ibrahim and his top deputies fled India. For a time Ibrahim was reportedly based in the UAE, but most analysts claim he has rebuilt his criminal empire and operates out of Karachi. He reportedly lives the high-life and has provided support for al-Qaeda and the Pakistani-based terrorists of Lashkar-e-Toiba (which have been linked to terror attacks in Kashmir and, most notably, the December 2001 attack on India’s parliament that nearly sparked a war between the nuclear powers.

The rumors of Ibrahim’s arrest are unclear. One says that Ibrahim and his deputies were arrested in Quetta (which is also in the vicinity of Mullah Omar’s reported whereabouts.) Other reports are that he was in a brawl at a Karachi hotel (although with a recent Musharraf visit, security was very tight.) Indian security services deny that he is in custody. Pakistani officials claim that they have no idea of his whereabouts – and that if he were in Pakistan they would like to be informed so that he can be apprehended. One report has it that one of Ibrahim’s underworld rivals is spreading these rumors.

Ibrahim’s son-in-law, Javed Miandad (who is a cricket star - Pakistan’s film industry is undeveloped so instead Ibrahim has associated with leading Pakistani cricket players) has said that Ibrahim is not in Pakistan but, “He is well wherever he is.”

Obviously Pakistan handing Ibrahim over to India would be a boon to their relations and also help Pakistan’s relationship with the US (which declared Ibrahim an international terrorist in 2003). Articles speculating that he is becoming an embarrassment for Pakistan have long suggested that the ISI wants to be rid of him. While it is nice to imagine that Musharraf – shocked by the explosion of extremist violence in Pakistan - is going to really clean house at the ISI, it is unlikely. If Ibrahim is closely linked to the ISI it is difficult to imagine the Pakistani government giving him up. Like A.Q. Khan (is there an overlap between these two…) most likely he will be furnished with a gilded cage.

If it is unlikely that Ibrahim is to be brought to justice, why report the rumors?

In late June 2006 there were media reports that Ibrahim had relocated to Pakistan’s tribal regions in order to maintain his low profile. In general, Ibrahim – while living large – keeps out of the media. On July 11, 2006 Mumbai was struck by a series of car bombs that killed 174. It was an operation with a lot of parallels to Black Friday.

That Ibrahim resurfaced – even in rumors – just before the bombings is an interesting coincidence. That he is resurfacing now is also interesting. RUMINT (like most intel) is like the shadows on the wall of Plato’s Cave. They may not be accurate – but they do indicate that something is happening.

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