Counterterrorism Blog
The first multi-expert blog dedicated solely to counterterrorism issues, serving as a gateway to the community for policymakers and serious researchers. Designed to provide realtime information about terrorism cases and policy developments.
October 2007 Archives

Indian Intelligence Report Paints Bleak Picture of Pakistani Military

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Over the past year, I've devoted a great deal of attention to the developing situation in Pakistan (see my recent Weekly Standard cover story, as well as blog entries here and at National Review's The Tank). In my recent Weekly Standard story, I note that Pakistan's military "does not appear to be up to the task of confronting the militants" that dominate in the tribal areas. Now The Times of India discusses an Indian intelligence report that vividly illustrates the challenges that Pakistan's military faces:

The Pakistani Army is "bleeding", and quite profusely at that, in its ongoing bloody skirmishes with extremists in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, with a "high" casualty rate as well as "unprecedented" levels of desertions, suicides and discharge applications.

This is the "assessment" of the Indian security establishment closely tracking developments in Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas (FATA), especially the Waziristan region, as also the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan. . . .

"These outfits were once nurtured by ISI, and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Our estimates show around 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in the fighting. Casualties in 'Operation Al Mizan' in north Waziristan have been particularly high," said an official.

"As per our intelligence inputs, Pakistani officers are jostling with low morale among their troops. The abductions and killings of soldiers by militants have only added to the disenchantment among troops, which is being reflected in a large number of desertions, suicides and AWOL (absent without leave) cases," he added.

The Indian report mentions a full 160 desertion cases from the FATA and NWFP between just October 11 and 16, as well as soldiers "refusing to obey orders" in Waziristan.

Indonesian Sect Comes Under Fire

By Kenneth Conboy

The vast majority of Indonesian Muslims tend to be extremely tolerant toward other religions, and toward the slight variants of Sunni Islam that are practiced across the archipelago. Every so often, however, an Islamic sect crosses the line and is declared heretic by the country’s most senior ulama.

This happened two years ago, when a quasi-Muslim group called Ahmadiyah Indonesia came under scrutiny. Very quickly, mainstream Indonesian Muslims closed ranks and moved decisively against Ahmadiyah communes around the country. In several cases, local residents stormed those communes, turning thousands of Ahmadiyah adherents into refugees.

History is now repeating itself. On 23 July, the head of an Islam offshoot called al-Qiyadah al-Islamiyah drew attention to itself after its leader, Ahmad Moshaddeq, declared that he was the next Prophet after Mohammad. Shortly thereafter, the Indonesian Ulema Council issued a fatwa calling the group “deviant.”

Pressure against al-Qiyadah has continued to steadily mount. This past Tuesday, Moshaddeq was questioned by the Jakarta police. The latter are weighing the possibility of charging him with blasphemy, a crime in the Indonesian criminal code that carries a penalty of five years in prison.

More disturbing, the Bandung chapter of the hard-line Islamic Defenders Front declared this week that it was prepared to launch raids against al-Qiyadah communes in West Java. (The sect is believed to count about 41,000 members in nine Indonesian cities.) If the Ahmadiyah case offers any precedent, at least a few such raids can be expected.

As this has played out, the Indonesian Ulema Council has come under some criticism in the media. After all, al-Qiyadah members apparently profess peaceful beliefs, but still were quickly condemned by the council. By contrast the council offered no similar criticism when Jemaah Islamiyah suicide bombers took hundreds of lives in Bali and Jakarta between 2002 and 2005.

Homegrown Radicalism in the United States

By Matthew Levitt

More than six years after 9/11, it is clear the US still faces an serious terrorist threat. Recent reports portray a disturbing picture: The latest National Intelligence Estimate on the terrorist threat to the US homeland describes a resurgent al Qaeda based in NW Pakistan which is still determined to strike the US and its allies, and whose ideology continues to radicalize and inspire Muslim youth throughout the world. Similarly, a study by NYPD intelligence division on terrorist radicalization outlines the difficulties in developing profiles for potential future terrorists.

On October 20, 2007, Mitchell Silber and Pam Byron addressed these issues at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Weinberg Founders Conference. Pam Byron, deputy national intelligence officer for transnational threats at the National Intelligence Council, spoke off the record. Mitchell Silber is a senior analyst in the Intelligence Division of the New York City Police Department and coauthor of its recent report, "Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat." An audio recording of the event, moderated by Matthew Levitt, director of the Institute's Stein program on terrorism, intelligence and policy, is available here.

The Holy Land Foundation: Misinformation about Material Support

By Michael Kraft

In the recent trial of the Holy Land Foundation and some of the other trials of groups or persons charged with providing for foreign terrorist organizations, a frequent assertion made on behalf of the defendants is that the contributions were for humanitarian purposes, not terrorist attacks.

This theme was stretched to its limits by Professor David Cole of Georgetown University, a prolific defender of groups accused of violating the 1996 law (the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996) that makes it a criminal offense to knowingly provide funds or other forms of material support to groups designated by the Secretary of State as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

In a Washington Post op-ed article ““Anti-Terrorism on Trial” printed Wednesday, October 24, Prof. Cole seriously misrepresents the Material Support provisions of claiming that “for all practical purposes the law imposes guilt by association.”

This is hyperbole and part of his effort to portray anti-terrorism efforts as McCarthyism.

As I pointed out in a brief letter to the editor that the Washington Post printed today, money is fungible. Congress made clear its position when it enacted the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 and inserted Section 301 (7), which states that “foreign organizations that engage in terrorist activity are so tainted by their criminal conduct that any contributions to such an organization facilitate that conduct.”

Furthermore, in the case of some groups such as Hamas, the clinics or schools they do run also help them recruit supporters and potential operatives. The money for this purpose is more important than the relatively small amount needed to purchase weapons.

In the Holy Land Foundation trial, which ended as a mistrial, the group was accused of contributing to subgroups of Hamas. Secretary of State Albright formally designated that Palestinian group as a foreign terrorist organization in 1997 because of its suicide bombings and other attacks directed against civilians in Israel and the West Bank. It has been well-publicized for nearly a decade now that the U.S. government has labeled Hamas a terrorist organization because of its attacks aimed at non-combatants.

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New Report from NEFA Foundation: "The Muslim Brotherhood in the United States"

By Evan Kohlmann

mbusa.jpgAn exclusive new report is now available for download from the NEFA Foundation website focusing on "The Muslim Brotherhood in the United States" by NEFA Senior Investigator Douglas Farah, NEFA Director of Research Ron Sandee, and NEFA Senior Analyst Josh Lefkowitz. The report is based upon a final, exhaustive review of exhibits from the recent criminal investigation targeting the Holy Land Foundation (HLF). On Oct. 22, 2007, a federal judge in Dallas declared a mistrial on most counts in the federal case against HLF. Despite this outcome, the case still offers an unprecedented inside look into the history of the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States, as well as its goals and structure...

(For more, visit the NEFA Foundation website)

A Disturbing Pattern that Benefits Terrorists

By Douglas Farah

There is a disturbing story in today's Washington Post on the role the U.S. weapons market plays in arming Mexican drug cartels.

"You're looking at the same firepower here on the border that our soldiers are facing in Iraq and Afghanistan," Thomas Mangan, a spokesman in Phoenix for the ATF.

The army of "ants" described in the story, carrying weapons south through the same routes they use to bring drugs north, is not new. What appears to be new is the sheer volume of weapons these criminal groups are able to acquire that move directly to the hands of the drug cartels, who can pay well for the merchandise.

It is interesting to note all the tricks used to distract border guards and others as the weapons traffickers, usually carrying small amounts of weapons purchased legally at U.S. gun shows, move across the border. These include using young women to carry the weapons, standing behind a young man that is clean but might arouse suspicion, and other tricks.

It is hard to believe that those from other groups-particularly Hezbollah, which has already had several militant arrested crossing into Texas, have not studied the MO and know how the system works as well as the traffickers. My full blog is here.

Did Syria Have Visible WMD Program Prior to US Invasion of Iraq?

By Jonathan Winer

The New York Times has published a remarkable piece on October 27 suggesting that satellite imagery which is now available commercially showed the construction of a nuclear facility in Syria that was well-developed as early as the summer of 2003, and which had been initiated as early as 2001.

In the measured prose of the Times, the informnation "is likely to raise questions about whether the Bush administration overlooked a nascent atomic threat in Syria while planning and executing a war in Iraq, which was later found to have no active nuclear program."

The issue of whether the U.S. invaded the wrong country has lately been focused on suggestions that the real nuclear threat in 2003 and now, has been Iran, not Iraq, an issue highlighted by the increasing focus of the Administration on Iran. There is little doubt that Iran is a serious proliferation threat and reportedly the Administration is considering a "surgical strike" on suspect Iranian WMD facilities, notwithstanding European concerns about Iranian military retaliation, perhaps first in Europe and Latin America.

But if in fact Syria was well along the way to constructing its own nuclear facility, and this reality was actually missed by senior U.S. policy-makers, the apparent failure to recognize this and respond to it years ago is to say the least, disturbing.

The satellite imagery and initial comments suggest that the U.S. simply failed to notice Syria's WMD program, a kind of nuclear negligence. One would hope that there is a different story behind the public facts.

Public hints about the Syrian program by U.S. government officials go back to 2003, appearing amid a fight between then Under Secretary of State John Bolton and intelligence analysts regarding Mr. Bolton's contention that Syria was actively pursuing nuclear capabilities, which the CIA reportedly viewed to be "inflated." The now available satellite imagery raises the question of whether Mr. Bolton may have been right on this issue, without making it clear whether his views were related to knowledge about the existence of the now-eradicated Syrian site.

We need to know more -- a lot more -- about Syria's apparent nuclear program, our intelligence on the program, the U.S. government's handling of that intelligence since 2001, the circumstances that led to the Israeli bombing of the site, and the relationship of any Syrian nuclear program not only to North Korea's program but to the AQ Khan network. Previously, it had been assumed that while Khan had had contacts with Syria, they were preliminary and had not resulted in substantive activities. Failure by Pakistan to provide the U.S. information on any such relationship would raise further questions about the accuracy of State Department public assessments that Pakistani cooperation with the U.S. in addressing the global security consequences of Khan's activities has been "good."


Why Pakistan Fails to Counter 'Suicide' Attacks?

By Animesh Roul

As the investigation into the Oct 18 Karachi blast continues, more terrorist strikes (e.g. Oct 20 Baluchistan car bomb blast and Oct 25 Swat blast), violent street protests and fatal shootouts came thick and fast to haunt Pakistan. Blame games and finger pointing are taking its usual round. The larger question, who is responsible for the carnage, is not important at this juncture. Both Jihadi elements and Bhutto herself should be held responsible for this carnage. The procession with thousands supporters was utterly unnecessary for security point of view and that to in the night. Everybody knows about Pakistan’s internal security situation that has been deteriorated further since July this year.

The Karachi suicide attack that ripped the security convoy of former Prime Minister and Pakistan People’s Party leader Bonaire Bhutto, killed over 130 people and left scores of others injured. As many as hundred among those 540 odd injured have been fighting with life and death in various hospitals in and around Karachi. The suicide attack was definitely targeted at Bhutto on her ‘celebratory return’ to Pakistan after years in exile. Even though intelligence agencies intercepted indications of assassination plans by as many as three Jihadi groups linked to al Qaeda/Taliban, they largely failed to prevent the bloodshed and mayhem. One loud Taliban commander Haji Omar gave enough indication of this type of deadly plots against her. Omar said that "She has an agreement with America. We will carry out attacks on Benazir Bhutto as we did on General Pervez Musharraf." However, the suspect list could be long, but government investigation will not fathom it soon, like any other similar attacks in post-Lal Masjid-operation Pakistan. The list reportedly have names of Taliban leaders, Islamist supporters of former President Zia ul-Haq, ISI henchmen and many armed force officials. Bhutto herself pointed fingers at three people, including Pak Intelligence Bureau (IB) chief Ezaj Shah. However, no outfit has taken responsibility for Karachi blasts. They won’t take either fearing backlash now.

Read More »


Is Google Allowing Syria to Play Politics With Google Earth?

By Andrew Cochran

I received this comment from William, a loyal CTB reader, referring to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross' post on Palestinian extremists' use of Google Earth to help determine their targets for rocket strikes:

I was just reading about the use of Google Earth by the Palestians and others regarding the use of this program to determine targets in Israel, and the feeble excuse that Google gave, on Counterterrosism blog. I decided to look up Israel and Syria, and lo and behold, if you type in Syria,then zoom to about 66 miles and in the Golan Heights and click on the 'Al Qunaytirah' red dot, it actually says, "Houses destroyed by Israel", and when you click on it, it shows a picture of house that has been hit by some type of weapons ordinance.

I looked up all over Israel for something saying, "Houses destroyed by Hezbollah, Syria, or Palestinians", and guess what the startling conclusion was, as far as I can tell. Yep, you guessed it, nothing of the sort.

The feeble excuse given by Google that, "anyone can fly over or drive by" the Israeli military installations and other government bodies as a perfectly reasonable explanation as to why they are allowed to show these close up is so shot down by this simple fact that they actually would say, and allow, you to see a picture of one house, supposedly destroyed by Israel.

This is why I absolutely refuse to use Google products of any kind, including their search engine.

P.S. Also, try to zoom in on places in Iran...for some amazing reason, the images are much more blurred than those in Israel.

Whatever happened to Google's promise to "Do no evil?"

Breaking News: Major Afghan Fight Erupts Today

By James Gordon Meek

A major battle has been fought today in Afghanistan's Helmand Province, a mountainous region in the south that is sick with Taliban fighters and is often the scene of frequent fighting. Most extraordinary is that the U.S. military is claiming to have slaughtered at least 84 Taliban who ambushed a patrol of "coalition forces" - typically code for a Green Beret unit - and Afghan National Security Forces. ANSF are essentially Pashtun tribal militiamen who operate almost exclusively with U.S. Army Special Forces.

The Taliban ambushed a patrol from positions inside trenches, which required the U.S. to hit them with airstrikes using four GPS-guided JDAM bombs during the unusual six-hour fight.

While it's not at all unheard of for the U.S.-led coalition to wipe out large numbers of Taliban, it hasn't happened since last summer - and it's particularly rare during this time of the year, given the already cold weather.

Read the Combined Joint Task Force-82 press release on the battle at the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

Liquid Explosives: India Lacks Technology to Detect and Deter

By Animesh Roul

Al-Qaeda and affiliates have plotted and made use of Liquid Explosives (LE) since long. Ramzi Yousef had the design and intention to use LEs in mid 1990s and we have witnessed the actual and lethal use in July 2005 London subway bombings. Also we have experienced the transatlantic aircraft plot scare in 2006 which caused widespread air travel disruption and chaos and triggered unprecedented security measures at airports.

Terrorists often employ liquid chemicals such as trinitrophenol (picric acid), triacetone triperoxide (TATP) and nitroglycerin with other powder explosive mixtures to make it a dangerous cocktail. Among all, peroxide-based explosives, such as TATP, are said to be colorless and difficult to identify. All technical information, from chemical properties to how to make explosive device is accessible on jihadi web forums and websites and also through legitimate scientific sites. More alarming is that The Terrorist's Handbook is still available through one weird blogger.

Not surprisingly the technique and material reached Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in India, replacing military explosives (e.g. RDX) earlier used by terrorists in large scale. This has been a major concern for security forces and intelligence agencies because LE is difficult to trace or detect. The chief of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the largest paramilitary force in India, fighting Islamic terrorists, Left wing extremist and hordes of separatist outfits in India, admitted recently that the Force lacked the technology or equipments to detect and preempt the widespread use of this brand of explosives. According to him, liquid explosives are increasingly used in Kashmir in recent months. In J&K terrorists (Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish e Muhammad and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen) have used locally available picric acid in most and elsewhere, as in Malegaon and Mecca Masjid blasts.

However, more than anything else, the fear is LE could make its way to passenger airlines. One report has described the difficulties in detecting these substances “due to the wide variety of packaging used especially by air travelers, in which these explosives can be readily concealed.” Even though there came some support from Israeli firm Acro Inc for India which develops explosive detection solutions like ACRO-PET, a handy peroxide explosive tester), Indian authority is still looking for similar but comprehensive detective system to thwart effectively any terrorists plan against its vulnerable aviation sector. A recently published scientific paper in Analytical Chemistry, "Non-invasive Detection of Concealed Liquid Explosives using Raman Spectroscopy," by Charlotte Eliasson, et al may help in this regard. However, Indian agencies should make every effort to devolve or bring these available technology and tools, (like China and Japan and some other countries in Europe who have deployed Anti LEs countermeasures in airports) and deploy at vulnerable targets such as airports, before it’s too late.

Finally, A Focus on the "Near" and Lethal Enemy

By Douglas Farah

While Islamist terrorism has been the focus of almost all counter-terrorism policies since 9-11, there are some indications that the long-standing and equally intractable struggle with drug-related terrorist gangs is coming back on to the radar screen.

It is worth remembering that the damage done by drug trafficking structures, due to the huge amounts of revenue and violence that they generate, do considerable damage as well. This is not a debate or whether drugs should be legalized, but a recognition that policy is not going to change any time soon, and this is the reality.

In fact, drug traffickers are the only other economic group that can rival the billions of dollars the Saudi government and wealthy Gulf donors but into the infrastructure that supports Islamist terrorism.

Despite the signs of progress in Colombia, the FARC remains a formidable, multi-billion dollar industry with significant ties to criminal and terrorist organizations, from weapons traffickers to the Lebanese expatriate communities that send significant resources to Hezbollah and, to a lesser degree, Hamas.

The FARC's ties to the Central American gangs and weapons trafficking networks pose a challenge that is only now being studied. The pipelines of people trafficking, weapons trafficking, drug trafficking and money laundering merge into one large stream from Honduras through Mexico.

The threat is not just potential alliances between the drug-fed groups and radical Islamist groups, although that danger is real. It is the that the pipeline is not discriminating at all in what it carries, and most of the products are lethal or potentially so. My full blog is here.

Yunus Qanooni: Friend or Foe of Democracy in Afghanistan?

By Andrew Cochran

(Update, Oct. 27: This post was republished HERE on e-Ariana.com, probably the most-read English language website for Afghan news.)

I received this from a trusted friend, an American who lived in Afghanistan for over a year (I won't say exactly how long), worked closely with political leaders there, and has an intimate working knowledge of the twists and turns of Afghan politics. The assertions in the piece are his, but I would also direct the reader to "The United National Front: Warload Redux," written in March by Matthew Dupee, for additional support. I look forward to readers' reactions and will consider posting well-written rebuttals.

"As the speaker of Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga (the lower house of the National Assembly, the Afghan parliament) travels to the U.S. this week, there will be those who hail him as an example of how far democracy has come in this war-torn nation. Those people are wrong. Anyone with knowledge of Afghan politics knows Yunus Qanooni has been one of the biggest obstacles to success in this nascent democracy, more concerned with amassing power and lining the pockets of his warlord cronies than pushing for real change in Afghanistan. The most egregious example of Qanooni’s true intentions came earlier this year, when he championed a bill to provide amnesty for anyone who has committed war crimes in the last 25 years. The reasoning was quite simple: Yunus Qanooni has been implicated as a human-rights abuser and war criminal by Human Rights Watch, along with fellow MPs (and some of Afghanistan’s most notorious warlords) Burhanuddin Rabbani, Mohammad Mohaqiq, and Abdul Rabb al-Rasul Sayyaf.

Not surprisingly, the legislation was overwhelmingly approved. When I asked someone with intimate knowledge of Afghan parliamentary affairs why there was so little opposition mounted, his response was simple: “Because the parliament is full of war criminals.” While that is not quite the case, his point was well taken. What was shocking, however, was the deafening silence by world governments and media organizations as this was happening.

Of greater concern for the future of Afghanistan’s democracy is Qanooni’s leading role in the United National Front, a motley cabal of warlords, ex-Communists, and politicos dissatisfied with President Hamid Karzai. One of the group’s main objectives is to hold a Loya Jirga (Grand Council) and change the Afghan constitution from a presidential to a parliamentary system, ostensibly so that Qanooni could be Prime Minister. Since their formation in March, they have been united in only one thing: attempting to discredit and destabilize Karzai’s government and throwing up roadblocks to progress whenever they can.

Read More »


Jihad, Islamism, and the Challenge of Anti-Freedom Ideologies

By Jeffrey Imm

As previously discussed, large segments of America and the West have a continuing dangerous denial on Jihad. But what of political Islamism itself?  How does it factor into a blueprint strategy in addressing our national security issues?

In the documentary "Islam versus Islamism", anti-terrorist Muslim Dr. Zuhdi Jasser states: "a majority, I believe, look at the lens of politics through an Islamist lens... if we hand them the mantle of religion that they seek to exploit for their own geopolitical issues all over the globe, then we are going to really lose this war."

Any blueprint strategy for national security must define Jihad, must address it within the national security threat, and must also define a national policy on the ideology of political Islamism... a topic where there is a deafening silence from among American political leadership.  Instead of referring to ambiguous terms such as "extremists", it is vital to refer to the specific political ideology of Islamism and examine its impact on Jihad, on national security, and on American foreign policy.

Islamism and its influence continue to grow in Iraq and in Afghanistan, where the United States has been laboring to develop democratic institutions.  Islamism is vital to Pakistan's identity and its struggles with pluralism.  Islamism is fundamental to such closed societies as Saudi Arabia and Iran.  Islamism continues to grow through the Arab nations, Asia, Africa, and Europe.  And as the recent Holy Land Foundation trial shows the influence of Islamist organizations continues to grow throughout the United States.  

How is the West to fight a war against Jihadists without a policy on political Islamism itself?

Read More »


Palestinian Militant Use of Google Earth

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The Guardian reports that Palestinian militants have relied on Google Earth for their attacks against Israeli military and civilian targets:

Members of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, a group aligned with the Fatah political party, say they use the popular internet mapping tool to help determine their targets for rocket strikes. "We obtain the details from Google Earth and check them against our maps of the city centre and sensitive areas," Khaled Jaabari, the group's commander in Gaza who is known as Abu Walid, told the Guardian. Abu Walid showed the Guardian an aerial image of the Israeli town of Sderot on his computer to demonstrate how his group searches for targets. The Guardian filmed an al-Aqsa test rocket launch, fired into an uninhabited area of the Negev desert, last month. Despite the crudeness of the weapons, many have landed in Sderot, killing around a dozen people in the last three years and wounding scores more.
Google's response to this revelation was predictable. In a statement, the company said: "We have paid close attention to concerns that Google Earth creates new security risks. The imagery visible on Google Earth and Google Maps is not unique: commercial high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery of every country in the world is widely available from numerous sources. Indeed, anyone who flies above or drives by a piece of property can obtain similar information."

This is not the first time that militant use of Google Earth has been alleged. Back in January, the Telegraph reported that in raids of insurgent homes in Iraq, British soldiers found printouts and photographs taken from Google Earth. From these finds, the soldiers concluded that insurgents were using Google Earth "to pinpoint their attacks." It is quite obvious how terrorists could find Google Earth a useful tool, as it contains an enormous amount of information about such appealing targets as nuclear reactors, military bases, government installations, and much more. Other countries have voiced their concerns about the possible security implications. DMEurope.com reported in late 2005 that Dutch politicians were "concerned that certain locations in the Netherlands, such as the port of Rotterdam, the royal palace in the Hague and Amsterdam Airport, already potential terrorist targets, could be made more vulnerable to terrorists thanks to the detailed images created from satellites and aircraft within the last three years available via Google Earth." The operators of Australia's nuclear reactor at Lucas Heights were so concerned that they asked Google to censor images of the reactor.

As has often been the case with Google, the company's defense of the images is fatuous. Google's statement that "anyone who flies above or drives by a piece of property can obtain similar information" is true enough, but most people can't just hop in a plane and fly over a nuclear reactor. Those who stop to scope out likely targets will often attract authorities' attention. In the Guardian's latest story, Palestinian militants themselves speak of Google Earth's utility to them.

This highlights one of the tensions of the information age, between freedom of information and security. Google Earth is a useful tool for many people, terrorists among them. Terrorists have been adept at exploiting the West's liberties and technology in their war against us, and Google Earth is no exception. There aren't easy answers to the conflict between freedom of information and security, but to pretend that no problems exist -- as Google does -- is not helpful.

Current Trends in Jihadi Networks in Europe

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

Lorenzo Vidino has an article in the new issue of the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, entitled Current Trends in Jihadi Networks in Europe. The article analyzes 5 trends: homegrown or part of a network, primary and secondary fields of jihad, the Muslim ghetto subculture, the spread to the countryside and the spread to Eastern Europe:

The terrorist related events that took place during the summer in Europe—the doctors' plot in Great Britain, the dismantling of various cells in Italy, Austria and Spain, and, finally, the September arrests in Germany and Denmark—have confirmed that Europe is a key staging ground for jihadi activities. Although large differences exist from country to country and within various subgroups in the ever-evolving underworld of jihadi networks in Europe, it is possible to identify some current trends that, in one way or another, are common to the whole continent.

Independent, or Part of a Network

During the last few years, commentators have been fascinated with homegrown networks in Europe and, clearly, small groups of European-born, self-radicalized, violence-prone Islamists have sprung up in most European countries. Yet, the panorama of jihadi networks in Europe is quite complex and, for a more accurate analysis, could be described on a continuum. At one extreme, one can identify quintessential homegrown groups such as the Hofstad Group in the Netherlands: small domestic clusters of radicals that have developed no ties to external groups and act in complete operational independence. At the opposite side of the spectrum are cells that respond to the traditional model used by al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in the 1990s: compartmentalized cells inserted in a well-structured network and subjected to a hierarchy whose heads are often outside Europe. That is the model to which various cells of the Algerian GSPC (today Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) belong.

In between these two extremes, there is a whole spectrum of realities, positioned according to the level of autonomy of the group. The most recurring model seems to be that of the cell dismantled by Danish authorities on September 4, 2007: a small group of young men, most of them born and/or raised in Europe, who knew each other either from the neighborhood or from the mosque. Their radicalization took place in Europe and only one or two members of the group traveled out of the country (Pakistan, in this case) to link up with foreign-based, well-structured groups ideologically or operationally affiliated with al-Qaeda. The knowledge acquired by the cell after this linkage obviously makes it more dangerous.

Traveling for Jihad: Primary and Secondary Fields

In contrast to the situation before the September 11 attacks, today most European jihadis do not travel out of the continent for training or to fight. Nevertheless, a small but significant number of them still opt for short stints in places where they can join training camps or guerrilla units. Pakistan/Afghanistan and Iraq are the two primary destinations. The former seems to attract recruits mostly from Northern Europe (Grea