How Will the Islamists Fare in Jordanian Elections Tomorrow?

By David Schenker

Tomorrow, Jordanians go to the polls for parliamentary elections. Over 900 candidates, including 200 women, will vie for 110 parliamentary seats in the contest. During the last parliamentary elections in 2003, the Islamic Action Front (IAF) took 17 seats, the best performance by a political party in the Kingdom.

During the most recent elections in Jordan—the August 31, 2007 municipal balloting—the IAF withdrew hours after the polls opened claiming Government fraud. IAF accusations centered on claims that the Government bused pro-monarchy soldiers to polling stations from their military bases, and fraudulent/repeat voting in some districts. Islamists also claimed official harassment in the run-up to elections, as evidenced by the arrest of several Islamist candidates and their supporters earlier in the month.

Critics of King Abdullah and the Jordanian Government are concerned that tomorrow’s parliamentary elections may not be free and fair. Weeks ago, a coalition of Jordanian NGOs said they had dropped plans to monitor the elections due to “crippling” government restrictions. According to Government Spokesman Nasser Judeh, however, the Government had reached an agreement with the National Center for Human Rights allowing 150 monitors to observe polling stations throughout Jordan.

No doubt, the IAF will continue to maintain Government foul play. While the Government may have used a heavy hand against the Islamist during the municipal elections, however, there is no indication whatsoever that this played a role in what would have ultimately been a disastrous outcome for the Islamists.

Indeed, according to exit polling conducted by the International Republican Institute and the Jordanian Center for Social Research, prior to the IAF’s withdrawal from the municipal elections, “most IAF candidates were losing by a large margin to their independent/tribal competitors, particularly in cities like Madaba, Rusaifeh and Irbid where a greater IAF presence is supposedly felt.” The implication is that if they continued to participate, the Islamists would have been soundly defeated. The dominant interpretation of the IRI/JCSR poll is that Islamist support in Jordan is slipping.

Of course, election time in Jordan is typically when people take stock of issues like democratic development and plans for reform. In Jordan, regardless how these elections transpire, there’s not lot a progress on this front. The “National Agenda”—as Jordan’s reform plan is called—has largely been shelved since Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher resigned from Government in November 2005.

Tomorrow, the IAF is only fielding 22 candidates, so in any event, it is unlikely the IAF will improve on its performance of 2003. But if the Islamists are defeated in largely free and fair elections, it just might provide King Abdullah with enough confidence to return to long-dormant reform plans.

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