Pakistan Polls and Growing Support for Islamism

By Jeffrey Imm

Two recent polls of Pakistanis show that between 60 and 76 percent of those polled seek the growth of Sharia throughout Pakistan, which is a key principle in political Islamism. The enforcement of Sharia throughout Pakistan is the stated goal of the Taliban in Pakistan.

The Islamist aspects of these poll findings are not news headlines because America lacks a policy and a coherent position on Islamism. However, these polls are not only informative to American taxpayers funding the Pakistan efforts in the "war on terror", but also should be a red flag to American policy makers regarding its long-term relationship with Pakistan as well as the underlying ideological disconnects between U.S. policy and Pakistani public opinion.

In the most recent World Public Opinion poll of Pakistanis, it was found that 60 percent of Pakistanis believe that "Sharia should play a larger role in Pakistan law" than it does now. Per this recent World Public Opinion poll, only 26 percent say Sharia should play the same role (15 percent) or a smaller role (11 percent) and 15 percent do not answer.

Most of the news stories based on the recent World Public Opinion poll of Pakistanis have been focused on the limited support within Pakistan in pursuing Al Qaeda or in fighting "insurgents", and these are legitimate tactical war concerns: (a) only 44 percent favor the Pakistani Army pursuing Al Qaeda, (b) only 48 percent would support the Pakistan Army acting against "Taliban insurgents who have crossed over from Afghanistan", and (c) nearly 80 percent are against US pursuing Al Qaeda or Taliban in Pakistan. But the underlying problem in U.S. relationships with Pakistan are demonstrated by the polls indication of significant Pakistani support for Islamism.

Nor is this the only poll that shows such Pakistani sentiment. A month earlier, a poll of Pakistani opinion, taken for Terror Free Tomorrow, yielded similar results on Islamism and support for Jihadist groups. Once again, the Islamist results were not the headline story, but they were a significant finding. To the question regarding Pakistani positions on the need for "implementing strict Sharia law throughout Pakistan", 76 percent of the Terror Free Tomorrow poll responders viewed this as "important".  This 76 percent was comprised of 41.2 percent that viewed this as "very important" and 34.8 percent that viewed this as "somewhat important".

The Terror Free Tomorrow Pakistani poll also showed 46 percent of Pakistanis in that poll having a favorable view of Osama Bin Laden (and only 26 percent having an unfavorable view). Other results of the Terror Free Tomorrow Pakistan poll showed: (a) 74 percent opposing US pursuing Al Qaeda or Taliban in Pakistan, (b) 37 to 49 percent approving local Pakistani Jihadi groups, and (c) half of those responding approving of the Taliban.

The American long-term strategy with Pakistan must be clarified if 60 to 76 percent of its population seek to turn Pakistan into an Islamist, Sharia-based nation.

As the US spends $150 million per month in Pakistan ($11 billion since 2001), and as President Bush seeks another $60 billion for Pakistan's tribal areas, the percent of "moderates" within Pakistan needs to be evaluated, in determining the relative likelihood of long-term success of anti-Jihad efforts in that nation.

The U.S. State Department has been actively hushing concerns about Pakistan, which the Pakistan Dawn calls "doomsday reports". The U.S. State Department assures Americans that "Pakistan is undergoing a political transition... [including] moderate forces within the Pakistani political system working together for a moderate Pakistan". How will U.S. support efforts at the creation of a "moderate Pakistan" if a significant portion of Pakistanis seek to make Pakistan an Islamist state?  Especially when Islamist laws, such as the Blasphemy law, already exist in Pakistan legal system and are used to repress non-Muslims today in Pakistan?

Then again, this is also the same U.S. State Department that supports negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan, as has Pakistan President Musharraf, who has called upon the Taliban to become a mainstreamed political party.

The challenge remains, however, that military efforts against "extremists" in Pakistan do not necessarily translate into the significant growth of Pakistani moderate, pro-freedom forces that would reject Islamism. These recent polls bring further question as to how, without a policy on Islamism, U.S. strategy in Pakistan will support "moderation", and moreover, what the definition of a "moderate Pakistan" is.

The October 20 AP report on "Pakistani militants" describes them as "self-declared standard-bearers of Islam [who] have also rampaged through the region bombing girls schools, threatening female teachers and even beheading two women they charged with prostitution. They have burned down music and CD shops and threatened barbers with violence if they trimmed beards. In some areas, they have even set up their own police forces." What the AP's report fails to address is that such "militants" are acting on their views regarding the enforcement of Sharia law throughout Pakistan, the same Sharia law that 60 to 76 percent of recently polled Pakistanis seek to have expanded throughout Pakistan, and the same Sharia law that the Taliban has vowed to enforce throughout Pakistan.

As the October 22 Christian Science Monitor reports, "the Taliban are viewed differently here than they are in the West, not least because they are Pakistani. While the West sees an Islamist war against its liberties, many here see a US-led war against Islam itself. Voicing an opinion commonly heard on Pakistani streets, Mr. Gul says: 'This is a false war. People are not convinced that 9/11 was done by Al Qaeda.' " The Pakistan Daily Times also reports that some Pakistani politicians are directly supporting terrorists.

The October 29 Newsweek report identifies Pakistani public sympathy and support for the Taliban, describing how some in the Pakistani government may be deliberately avoiding making reports on Taliban actions, and how Taliban members are moving freely in major Pakistani cities. As per the Christian Science Monitor report, " 'When we hear people in Washington or London say that Pakistan needs to do more, the question is: Do you understand what you're asking us to do?' asked Zamir Akram, a Pakistani foreign-policy adviser, in an address to the Middle East Institute. 'Would you go into Texas or wherever on the border areas and actually kill Americans?' "

These polls and media reports follow reports by Indian intelligence of widespread trouble throughout the Pakistan Army, "with a 'high' casualty rate as well as 'unprecedented' levels of desertions, suicides and discharge applications." A military tactic approach alone to Pakistan does not answer the larger strategy issue of winning the hearts and minds of Pakistanis to a pro-freedom, pluralistic society, and moreover, whether such a "moderate Pakistan" is a long-term possibility for that nuclear nation.

If America seeks to fight Jihad, which is very different than simply fighting undefined "terrorism", America must develop a policy on political Islamism to measure the validity of any nation as an "ally" when it comes to its willingness to fight Jihad. We have a dual problem: (1) America's current leadership is ambivalent on a policy regarding political Islamism in its own nation, and (2) America's current leadership is willing to ignore Islamist views of the people or governments of so-called "ally" nations in a "war on terror".

In the case of nuclear Pakistan, a lack of strategy on Islamism could be a deadly misstep in war tactics.

America's alliance with any nation in fighting Jihad must reflect a coherent, precise policy on political Islamism, and how the position on Islamism of any "ally" nation -- directly affects American efforts to fight and defeat Jihad.  Pakistan provides a perfect illustration as to why this is so vital to America's national security interests.

Sources and Related Documents:

November 1, 2007 - Pakistan Daily Times: 'Most Pakistanis oppose force against Qaeda'
October 31, 2007 - World Public Opinion: Less than Half of Pakistani Public Supports Attacking Al Qaeda, Cracking Down on Fundamentalists
World Public Opinion Pakistan Poll Questionnaire/Methodology (PDF)
October 31, 2007 - BBC: Pakistan militants firm on Sharia
October 31, 2007 - Pakistan Daily Times: Some Pakistan politicians are 'supporting' terrorism: Federal Information Minister Muhammad Ali Durrani
October 31, 2007 - Washington Post: U.S. and Pakistan: A frayed alliance -- As military efforts falter, trust suffers
October 31, 2007 - Times of India: Multiple conflicts bleed Pak army
October 23, 2007 - Pakistan Daily Times: Bush asks US Congress for $60 million for Pakistan's tribal areas
September 12, 2007 - CNN: Poll: Bin Laden tops Musharraf in Pakistan
Terror Free Tomorrow Poll: Pakistanis Reject US Military Action against Al Qaeda; More Support bin Laden than President Musharraf: Results of a New Nationwide Public Opinion Survey of Pakistan
October 30, 2007 - Pakistan Tribune: Extremist in Pak as much a threat to it as to neighbours: US
October 30, 2007 - Dawn: US rejects doomsday reports on Pakistan
October 20, 2007 - AP: Militants in Pakistan share fundamentalist Islamic principles, hatred of US-allied government
October 29, 2007 - Pakistan Daily Times: Pakistan hires another lobbyist in Washington
October 26, 2007 - Jihad, Islamism, and the Challenge of Anti-Freedom Ideologies - CTB - Jeffrey Imm
October 22, 2007 - Christian Science Monitor: Pakistan's Army: Unprepared to tackle terrorism?
October 29, 2007 - Newsweek: Where the Jihad Lives Now
Wikipedia: Blasphemy law in Pakistan
October 2, 2007 - Afghanistan's Taliban: US Tactics - Defeat or Negotiate? - CTB - Jeffrey Imm
August 13, 2007 - Pakistan President Seeks Mainstream Taliban - CTB - Jeffrey Imm
Wikipedia: Islamism
July 18, 2007: Preventing the West from Understanding Jihad - Dr. Walid Phares
September 11, 2007: 9/11 and the Inconvenient Truths about Jihad and Islamism - Jeffrey Imm

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