Pakistan Emergency Amidst Growing Talibanization

By Jeffrey Imm

On November 3, Pakistan's President Musharraf declared a state of emergency and martial law in Pakistan, suspending the Pakistan constitution, stating that Pakistan's sovereignty was at stake. This emergency declaration was made as the continuing growth of power and influence of the Taliban has turned the area of Swat into a mini-state within Pakistan, as Pakistan army and police are surrendering to Taliban, and as the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan. (NWFP) government has publicly offered to meet the demands of the Taliban to enforce Shariah throughout the Swat area.

This grim news also comes after repeated polls taken among the Pakistani public which shows between 60 to 76 percent of those polled favor the growth of Islamist Shariah law throughout Pakistan, as well as news reports of growth of Pakistan Taliban armaments and tolerance of Taliban in major cities within Pakistan. This emergency declaration also comes less than a week after a suicide bomber attack near the heavily-fortified Pakistani Army HQ in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, which houses President Musharraf's office. Pakistan's internal security has been challenged in the past several months with a continuing series of suicide bombings and attacks, including one on Benazir Bhutto's convoy last month that killed 145 people.

In the text of the November 3 declaration of emergency, Pakistan President Musharraf stated that he put Pakistan under martial law based in part on "visible ascendancy in the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks, including suicide bombings, IED explosions, rocket firing and bomb explosions and the banding together of some militant groups have taken such activities to an unprecedented level of violent intensity posing a grave threat to the life and property of the citizens of Pakistan." In the declaration, Musharraf also stated that "some members of the judiciary are working at cross purposes with the executive and legislature in the fight against terrorism and extremism" and that "the police force has been completely demoralized and is fast losing its efficacy to fight terrorism and Intelligence Agencies have been thwarted in their activities and prevented from pursuing terrorists". Moreover, Musharraf stated that "some hard core militants, extremists, terrorists and suicide bombers, who were arrested and being investigated were ordered to be released" and "[t]he persons so released have subsequently been involved in heinous terrorist activities, resulting in loss of human life an property."

The Pakistan Supreme Court was reported that it was to give its verdict by November 6 on the legality of Musharraf's re-election in uniform for the post of President. In the November 3 declaration of emergency, Musharraf dismissed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, and replaced him with Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar. Chaudry declared the state of emergency illegal. In addition to this issue, the Musharraf government had differences with the Pakistan Supreme Court on "concessions" given to Lal Masjid (aka "Red Mosque") Islamist clerics. On October 2, the Pakistan Supreme Court ordered the government to re-open the pro-Taliban Lal Masjid mosque. On October 10, the Musharraf government filed a petition of review with the Pakistan Supreme Court "asking that the concessions given to the former clerics of Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa be withdrawn". On October 18, the pro-Jihadist, Islamist political organization Jamaat-e-Islami petitioned the Pakistan Supreme Court to move "against the deployment of the armed forces in the tribal areas".

While some view Musharraf's declaration of emergency to be a ploy to retain power, there remains a very real battle for the identity of Pakistan between Islamists and moderates, a battle in which the Islamists are gaining ground and influence in this nuclear nation. The Pakistan Taliban's goal of enforcing Islamist Shariah throughout Pakistan is one that a majority of Pakistanis would agree with based on recent public opinion polls.

The Pakistan Army has faced a series of humiliating defeats in recent days, with 48 soldiers surrendering to the Taliban on November 2, and 120 policemen and paramilitary soldiers surrendering to the Taliban on November 3. The surrendering Pakistanis were released after being paraded and announcing their surrender to the "mujahedeen". Moreover, the surrendering military have stated publicly that "[w]e did not want to fight these Muslim brothers who are striving for the enforcement of Islamic sharia".

Indian intelligence has reported mass casualties, desertions, suicides, discharge applications in the Pakistani military, which have been echoed in other reports of serious problems in the Pakistan Army by media sources Christian Science Monitor, Washington Post, and Newsweek, among others.

The September 2006 peace pact between Pakistan and the Taliban has allowed both the Taliban and Al Qaeda to regroup in Waziristan and carry out terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In August 2007, while President Musharraf was holding meetings with Taliban representatives, encouraging the Taliban to become a mainsteam political organization, the Taliban has continued to solidify a base in the North-West Frontier (NWFP) Province of Pakistan.

This NWFP base of the Taliban is centered in the Swat area, where the Taliban and Al Qaeda have created a mini-state within Pakistan, where pro-Taliban cleric Maulana Fazlullah uses FM radio to broadcast the Islamist ideology of the Taliban to the public. Pakistan Daily Times reports that Milt Bearden, a former CIA station chief in Pakistan, states that "losing Swat is shocking... the Pakistanis, and by extension the United States, have almost no control of events... I don't think anyone in Washington really gets it." The influx of 2,500 troops into the Swat area has not deterred the efforts of the Taliban. Pakistan Daily Times reports that Jihadist Abdul Samad states that he traveled in recent weeks to North Waziristan and recruited scores of militants to reinforce Fazlullah's followers in Swat. Samad says "It's not just in Swat or in Waziristan or in Bajaur. We are getting stronger everywhere in the area."

On November 2, the Pakistan NWFP government announced an initial appeasement to the Taliban to help it achieve its Islamist goals in enforcing Shariah throughout Pakistan -- the creation of a committee to enforce Sharia law in Malakand Division. The Pakistan Daily Times reported that the "provincial government has directed the committee to submit its report as soon as possible for swift implementation of Sharia law". On November 3, prior to the emergency declaration, NWFP governor Ali Muhammad Jan Aurakzai announced that Pakistan was considering enforcement of Shariah in Swat valley to meet the demands of pro-Taliban militants, stating "[t]he government is considering the implementation of Sharia law in the view of the demands of the local people."

The November 3 Pakistan Daily Times reports that "[a] confidential memo circulated to the National Security Council in July and made public soon afterward warned that militants from the border region were exerting wide influence. It spoke of a nexus between radical clerics behind the bloody siege of Lal Masjid in Islamabad, which resulted in more than 100 deaths, and the clerics in northwest Pakistan. 'When I was following Lal Masjid, one thing was very clear -- that they had strong sympathizers within the establishment and within the military,' said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a leading independent Pakistani defense analyst."

On November 2, Pakistan Federal Information Minister Muhammad Ali Durrani stated that some Pakistani politicians were directly supporting terrorists, and that such individuals would be exposed. Durrani also stated that the government and the media needed to unite against the Taliban.

However, the October 22 Christian Science Monitor reports, "the Taliban are viewed differently here than they are in the West, not least because they are Pakistani. While the West sees an Islamist war against its liberties, many here see a US-led war against Islam itself. Voicing an opinion commonly heard on Pakistani streets, Mr. Gul says: 'This is a false war. People are not convinced that 9/11 was done by Al Qaeda.'"

While the US State Department and US military have objected to Musharraf's emergency declaration, the Taliban continue their efforts of enforcing Islamism throughout Pakistan unchecked. On Friday, a bomb blast destroyed 14 shops in Peshawar market selling selling CDs, TV sets and music albums. Bombing of non-Islamist businesses and threatening the lives of non-Muslims if they do not covert to Islam is becoming a relatively routine occurrence in Swat and other parts of the NWFP in Pakistan.

The failure of American leadership to have a policy on Islamism has prevented the ability to provide a pro-active coherent policy in Pakistan that addresses both the strategic issues of pro-Islamist Pakistani public sentiment along with support in areas of the government and public for the Taliban, as well as the tactical issues of fighting "extremists" in Afghanistan who have found safe haven in NWFP in Pakistan.

While U.S. Admiral William J. Fallon has told Pakistan President Musharraf that an emergency rule order would risk U.S. support to his military, the U.S. military support to Pakistan has limited long-term impact without addressing the Islamist public opinion and support in Pakistan for the Taliban and other Islamist organizations. The current situation in Pakistan illustrates the train wreck of pursuing tactical operations in fighting "extremists" without a strategy to clearly define the enemy and to define a U.S. policy on Jihad and Islamism.

Pakistan Emergency Amidst Growing Talibanization

By Jeffrey Imm

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