Prime Suspects in Worst Suicide Attack in Afghanistan's History (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATED: A suicide bomber hit a sugar factory in the northern town of Baghlan, killing 40 and injuring dozens of others, with at least 5 members of the Afghan Parliament killed (Reuters reports 50 killed, quoting an Afghan official). An Interior Ministry spokesman blamed "the enemy of the people of Afghanistan," a term used in Afghanistan to refer to the Taliban, al-Qaida, and other terrorists. (NOTE: Death toll reports have fluctuated wildly. The death toll in the worst suicide bombing prior to today's was 35 in a Kabul attack this past June.)

An early AP account noted, "The northern Afghan region where the blast happened is known for tensions between the mainly ethnic Tajik government leadership and remnants of the militant group Hezb-i-Islami, whose fugitive leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an ethnic Pashtun, is allied to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida but has denied organizational links."

We've written often here about Hekmatyar, who was allied with the U.S. against the Soviets in the 1980s, then fled to Iran during Taliban rule, then returned in 2002 to form his group with fellow Pashtuns. On March 8, I wrote about his proclamation of a split with the Taliban and suggestion of a peace deal with the Karzai government. Douglas Farah wrote about him back in August 2005. On April 6, I quoted a NY Daily News blog post by James Gordon Meek about the Taliban's offensive, in which James wrote, "Taliban forces predominantly fight in the south, while Pashtun tribal militias commanded by Al Qaeda-linked warlords such as Bin Laden pals Jalaluddin Haqqani and ex-Afghan premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar fight in the eastern border. (Haqqani and Hekmatyar also were CIA allies in the war against the Soviets.)"

Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son SiraJuddin Haqqani, who goes by Siraj, are other prime suspects in today's bombing and were the subject of James' October 21 post here. James reported then that, "In announcing a $200,000 bounty for Siraj on Friday, the U.S. military claimed that the younger Haqqani 'is working to rival Mullah Omar for the Taliban leadership.' The Haqqanis, who hail from Khowst, Afghanistan, are also under fire in the seat of their Pakistani base of operations, border towns Miram Shah and Mir Ali, which the Pak Army has bombed heavily this month. Using rare specificity, the military command at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan said in the document that Siraj 'brings foreign fighters from places like Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, Turkey and Middle Eastern countries into Afghanistan,' and his Al Qaeda ties have facilitated "more financial support from Middle Eastern countries."

In an e-mail to me, James noted that "this part of Afghanistan has been relatively violence-free." We'll see if this attack touches off others as part of a new campaign in that region.

UPDATE: James Meek adds more with a different angle in this message:

My diplomatic source said the warlord Dostum, who was a pretty notorious U.S. ally during the 2001 battle of Mazir-E-Sharif, holds sway in the town where today's blast occurred, although his primary stronghold is Shebregan.

"Dostum's influence thins at the margins, and Baglan is getting towards the margins," my diplomatic source said. "There is also a large Pashtun 'bubble' between Mazar and Shebregan - moved there at the beginning of the last century by the King in an effort to dilute Uzbek power and influence." The Taliban is a Pashtun movement, though most Pashtun are not Taliban.

Many NATO allies are only willing to send troops to "safe" areas in Afghanistan, and this bombing may be a Taliban effort less directed at Dostum than the Hungarian troops who man the Baglan Provincial Reconstruction Team. It would be entirely consistent with Taliban strategy to use violence to seed political discord at home for a NATO member such as Hungary.

See this Asia Times Online story about Dostum and Mohammad Qasim Fahim, Jam'iat-e Islami-yi commander and former Karzai defense minister until he was sacked for alleged corruption.

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