Success Against Jemaah Islamiyah As "Bali Three" Near Execution

By Andrew Cochran

On October 25, Kenneth Conboy wrote here about the lack of attacks by Jemaah Islamiyah during Ramadan season in Indonesia: "In hindsight, 2007’s Ramadhan fast and Lebaran will probably go down as one of the most peaceful in recent memory. Not only were there no acts of terrorism, but the number of raids by hard-line Muslim vigilante groups against entertainment venues—which were commonplace around 1999—were few and far between." He also wrote of the apparent end of the appeals process for three of the 2002 Bali bombers sentenced to death for the most lethal terrorist attack after the 9/11 attacks. Late last week, Indonesia's President said the death sentence must be carried out. No date will be announced out of fear of reprisals.

So where is JI now? Our other Contributing Expert on SE Asian terrorism, Zachary Abuza, has written a new report, "The State of Jemaah Islamiyah: Terrorism and Insurgency in Southeast Asia Five Years After Bali," published by the Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies at Tuft's University's Fletcher School. Zachary discusses JI's background, its resiliency, and the means by which Indonesia and its allies have degraded JI since 2002. He concluded that "JI is operationally a shadow of its former self, and the short-term threat posed by the group has been significantly mitigated." Here are excerpts from the section on the success:

First, Indonesian security officials finally broke free of political restraints and were able to do their job following the 2002-2003 bombings. They quickly developed a cadre of highly skilled and disciplined counter-terrorist police, known as Densus-88... In general, counter-terrorist operations across Southeast Asia have led to the development and professionalization of legal and security institutions...

Second, there is now a historically unprecedented degree of security cooperation amongst the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia... Perhaps the most noticeable sign of cooperation has been in patrolling the tri-nation maritime border of Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which has proven to be JI’s Achilles’ Heel... There has also been enhanced cooperation with foreign counterparts—in particular, the United States and Australia.

Third, the Malaysian, Indonesian, and Singaporean governments have done a very good job at trying to rehabilitate or disengage members of JI... The three governments are acutely aware that the battle against JI and similar groups is an ideological struggle, and they recognize the need to create a counter-narrative to JI’s ideology.

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