Tensions Mount in Lebanon as Presidential Elections Draw to a Close

By David Schenker

The Islamic Action Front fared poorly in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Jordan. Meanwhile in Lebanon-where the two month presidential election period ends tomorrow—prospects for the Hizballah-led opposition are looking up.

Word from Lebanon is that the pro-West March 14th Government will not be able to elect one of their two preferred candidates (Boutros Harb and Nassib Lahoud) president. Instead, it now appears that the March 14th forces and opposition may settle on a “compromise” candidate—codeword for a president-elect who is sympathetic to Syria.

[The outgoing president Emile Lahoud was appointed by Syria nine years ago, and so endeared himself to Damascus that Syria engineered a 2005 constitutional amendment in Lebanon to extend his term by three years.]

It’s not clear who this compromise candidate will be, but the Beirut rumor mill is leaning toward Michel Edde. Edde was a former minister in several Lebanese Governments, is a member of the Board of the French language Lebanese daily L’Orient Le-Jour, and served from 2003-2007 as President of the Maronite League. Edde, who is 80, is also a self-professed expert on Jewish affairs, and a periodic guest commenting on these matters on Hizballah’s Al Manar TV.

The Edde scenario goes something like this: Edde is elected by consensus and agrees to serve only two years of the six year term. By agreeing to two years, this plan might stand a chance of securing the support of Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun--the most popular Maronite leader in Lebanon--who is 72 and also wants to be president someday.

While this deal might avert conflict for now, however, it would also effectively kick the can down the road on the difficult decision on president—almost guaranteeing another crisis in Lebanon in two years.

Despite all the talk about Edde, it’s apparently not yet a fait accompli. Sources close to Sa’ad Hariri—the head of the Mustaqbal Party and the March 14th Movement—reported today that during a meeting yesterday with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Hariri told him that he “refused the candidacy of Michel Edde.”

Stay tuned. The deadline for a decision is Friday night

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