Yemen & Turkey: First "Walkaways" Under Assumed U.S. Retreat

By Andrew Cochran

An editorial early in October by Tariq Alhomayed, Editor-in-Chief of the influential Asharq Al-Awsat, probably voiced the opinion of many leaders in the Arab world: "In preparation for the American withdrawal from Iraq, activity is in full swing to fill the imminent vacuum in Baghdad. The Iranians are not the only ones who are preparing for this; the Syrians are also getting ready... America will leave the region and we will find ourselves opening a new chapter that is no better than where we are today. After the devouring of Iraq and Lebanon at the hands of Iran and Syria, the Gulf region will be under the siege of the Islamic revolution and under pressure from Syrian meddling." These statements and the full editorial weren't anti-American, just straight predictions based on an assumption among Arab leaders that the inevitable American withdrawal from Iraq is the precursor to a broader retreat from the region.

We've already seen evidence of that assumption in the recent actions by Turkey and Yemen. At virtually the same time as the publication of the editorial, the U.S. special envoy for the PKK issue, Gen. Joseph Ralston, resigned. That was the last signal that Turkish incursions against the PKK and a full-scale invasion of Iraq are inevitable, with the U.S. considered increasingly powerless to prevent it. I attended a Jamestown Foundation briefing with Gen. Ralston in March, and the difficulty he faced in mediating the situation was obvious. The most recent news reports indicate the Bush Administration's acquiescence in those actions, with a complete change in stance from doing "absolutely nothing" a week ago to yesterday's statement, "We are assisting the Turks in their efforts to combat the PKK by supplying them with intelligence, lots of intelligence."

Similarly, the Yemeni government slapped the U.S. in the face by releasing Jamal al-Badawi, the U.S.S. Cole bombing mastermind, right after the top counter-terrorism adviser at the White House, Fran Townsend, left Yemen and praised it for cooperation in fighting terrorism. Newsweek also reports that Yemen might have also released Jaber Elbaneh, an FBI fugitive indicted as part of the "Lackawana Six" plot. Yemen's backtracking on the Badawi release stories isn't giving anybody in Washington a warm, comfortable feeling.

These are not isolated events. They are the first evidence of countries with at least some partial record of cooperation walking away from the U.S. over an assumption that the next two or three years will bring a American retreat from the Middle East and an unwillingness to assert American influence for our interests and those of our allies in the entire region. That is a political calculation made from watching polls, early Presidential debates, and Congressional actions (or inactions) on future appropriations. It is our political leaders' responsibility to either assure Arab leaders that is not the case, or to prepare the American people for a more precipitous decline in our influence.

And don't think the Israelis aren't thinking about this, too, when they make their judgments and plans with respect to Iran.....

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