Did Qaeda Allies in Pak Government Help Slay Bhutto?

By James Gordon Meek

New questions are being raised about divided loyalties inside the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Could this shocking political murder have been, at least in part, an inside job? In Sunday’s New York Daily News, we reported exclusively on increasing suspicions among top U.S. counterterrorism officials that Al Qaeda leaders have been protected by rogue operatives from Pakistan’s army or Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, who could just as easily have aided them in slaying the former prime minister.

Particular attention is on Osama Bin Laden’s No. 2, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, whose ease at communicationg to the West this year has proven remarkable. Zawahiri has issued almost monthly video or audio statements throughout 2007, including some referring to specific events as recently as seven days earlier.

It’s worth noting that the ISI’s extended retiree network is open for business and that its former chief under Bhutto, Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, is still a prominent figure in Pakistan. Gul openly stated in a 2003 interview that “God will destroy America,” and has professed admiration for enemies of the U.S. Those might be just meaningless comments were they not from the man who organized the Taliban a decade ago as an instrument of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

New York University’s Barnett Rubin, an expert on the region, told me he “wouldn’t be surprised” if it turned out that Zawahiri has gotten what one American counterterrorism official recently described to me as “food and succor.” But other experts and U.S. defense officials watching South Asia say there is no evidence Zawahiri is protected by government operatives. Another senior U.S. intelligence official said that Bin Laden’s allies inside the Musharraf government may have been passive aggressive - not complicit in the plot, but doing zip to stop it. “My bet is that either the army or the ISI were knowledgeable, not necessarily involved, and that Al Qaeda sponsored it [Bhutto’s assassination],” the official said.

Pakistan’s gradual unraveling was clear even a few months ago, when a top Bush administration diplomat told The News that the country was devolving into “Talibanistan,” and claimed the ISI was so rogue that Bin Laden himself once “was an asset of theirs.” (Ironically, in his most recent message this month, Zawahiri called Pakistan “Americanistan, and [Pakistanis] must save it before it turns into Indiastan or Israelistan.”)

But the Taliban appears to be in the midst of as big a shakeup as the semi-legitimate political structure in Islamabad under Musharraf. The Al Qaeda-linked Taliban emir of Pakistan named as the mastermind of Bhutto’s killing, Baitullah Mehsud, recently was elected to his position in the wake of the deaths of several senior fellow commanders, including clansmen Abdullah Mehsud, who is often described in press reports as Baitullah’s late brother.

Over the weekend, Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar pulled a Donald Trump by telling top field commander Mansour Dadullah, the brother of the martyred Taliban brute Mullah Dadullah Akhund, “You’re fired!” Dadullah’s spokesman denies he was sacked for insubordination, while Omar’s spokesman insists he was. What’s surprising is that Dadullah was so publicly humiliated by Omar instead of assassinated in what our intel sources call a “classic turf battle,” and simply declared a great martyr for the “Islamic Emirate of Kharasan” (Afghanistan).

Iraq's Awakening Councils and Concerned Local Citizens Are Not the Same

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

An Associated Press report about a suicide bombing that killed 12 people north of Baghdad today notes that the targeted checkpoint was manned by members of a volunteer group. "The groups," the report says, "known as Awakening Councils and dubbed Concerned Local Citizens by the U.S. military, have been credited with helping reduce violence in the country." This is inaccurate: The Awakening Councils and Concerned Local Citizens (CLCs) are not, in fact, the same.

The Awakening Councils are part of Iraq Awakening, a political movement that also has a paramilitary component. It derives much of its strength from the Iraqi tribes. Though the Awakening movement is not a part of the Iraq government, it provides many of the functions of government in the absence of central government presence. The Awakening movement is led by Ahmed Abu Risha, the brother of slain tribal leader Abdul Sattar al-Rishawi. While the provincial heads have a great deal of autonomy within the Awakening movement, all of them seem to recognize Ahmed Abu Risha at least as a symbolic leader. Ahmed Abu Risha is known to be in contact with all the Awakening movement's provincial leaders.

In contrast, "Concerned Local Citizens" is the name of a program initiated by the U.S. military that authorizes the formation of paramilitary organizations. As Army colonel David Sutherland explained in a conference call with journalists, "[m]embers of these groups take an oath, sign a contract and are vetted to make sure they are not insurgents hoping to infiltrate the organization . . . . If a member does not live up to the agreement, they [sic] are kicked out or even arrested." Members of the CLCs receive a salary.

The Awakening movement is registered under the CLCs program, but the two are not completely coterminous. Many CLC leaders were part of the Islamic Army of Iraq (IAI) previously, and have no Awakening affiliation. One example of a CLC leader who is not part of the Awakening movement is the controversial Hajji Abu Abed. I spoke with a military intelligence source today who expressed concern about some CLC leaders who are not affiliated with Awakening. Not only is the Awakening movement fairly good at keeping order within its ranks, but also Awakening members have agreed to give up the insurgency in the sense that they have recognized the legitimacy of Iraq's central government. While former IAI commanders who have since joined CLCs are not a part of the insurgency in the sense that they are not currently fighting the central government, many have not formally recognized the central government's legitimacy. Some CLC participants continue the kind of insurgent-style propaganda that the Awakening movement has abandoned. Also, some non-Awakening CLC leaders seem more interested in carving out local fiefdoms than anything else: Abu Abed in Ameriya is one example. This is not to say that the CLC program should be limited to Awakening members -- but some CLC participants raise hard questions in the way that the Awakening movement generally does not.

The Awakening movement and CLCs are often seen as the same because of Awakening participation in the CLC program. But this overlapping membership does not make them synonymous.

Boim Case Reversal Could Be Major Blow To Victim-of-Terrorism Litigants

By Victor Comras

I want to join my colleague Andrew Cochran in expressing disappointment with the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals decision to reverse and remand the Boim Case for a new trial. This landmark case is key to determining whether those responsible for funding terrorism can be held liable and accountable to the victims through civil damages. And the concern here is that the 7th Circuit Court may now have set much too high an evidentiary bar when it comes to showing a causal link between the funding of terrorists and the terrorist act itself. At a minimum the court’s decision, along with the recent jury verdict in the Holy Land Foundation Criminal trial, underscore the great difficulties that civil litigants will now have to overcome to pursue such cases against terrorism financiers.

The two-to-one Seventh Circuit Court majority decision in the Boim case turns principally on the issue of establishing a sufficient causal link between the defendants funding of Hamas activities and the actual murder of David Boim by Hamas Terrorists. The Court found that the trial court had erred, inter alia, by “relieving” plaintiffs of the burden of actually showing that such a causal link did in fact exist between their financial support for Hamas and David Boim’s murder. The Circuit Court also expressed its concern that the District Court had erred by using the earlier findings of a DC Federal Court upholding Treasury Department terrorism designation actions against Holy Land Foundation and the American Muslim Society to incorrectly alleviate Plaintiff’s burden to prove that these entities had, in fact, funded Hamas. This comment does not address this latter question.

The problem here is in understanding just how much evidence the Circuit Court will require to establish a sufficient causal link between terrorism financing and specific acts of terrorist before defendants can be held accountable. As Judge Evans points out in his dissenting opinion:

“No one would seriously dispute that there must be a causal link between the defendants and the terrorist act. … But just what does “causal link” mean in this context, and how must one prove that the link exists between the defendants and Hamas? The majority wisely declines to set up an absurd requirement that the money given to Hamas by the defendants must be traced directly to, say, purchasing the gun used in the attack. Money, the majority recognizes, is fungible. At times, though, it seems that the majority is requiring a pretty clear trail leading from a defendant to the specific act which caused David’s death. For instance, the majority says that what 'is strikingly absent from the district court’s analysis is any consideration of a causal link between the assistance that the court found AMS/IAP to have given Hamas and the murder of David Boim.' The majority also says that 'there must be proof that the defendant aided and abetted [Hamas] in the commission of tortious acts that have some demonstrable link with David Boim’s death.' But then there is the statement that '[n]othing in Boim I demands that the plaintiffs establish a direct link between the defendants’ donations (or other conduct) and David Boim’s murder . . . .'”

Just where the Circuit Court is going with this causal link question should be a matter of great concern. And it appears to this writer that the Court may be imposing causal link requirements that very few, if any victim- of-terrorism litigants can meet. For the Boim case the court insists that the plaintiffs "must be able to produce some evidence permitting a jury to find that the activities of HLF, Salah, and AMS contributed to the fatal attack on David Boim and were therefore a cause in fact of his death.”. The Opinion further states that “It is not enough to show simply that a defendant generally aided and abetted HLF or even Hamas as organizations; there must be proof that the defendant aided and abetted them in the commission of tortious acts that have some demonstrable link with David Boim’s death.” This involves being able to present evidence of a high degree specificity linking any funding activities to the specific terrorist acts in question.

At the same time the Circuit Court majority also suggests that one way of establishing such a necessary causal link would be to show that the defendants “aided and abetted David Boim’s murder by taking some step that aided Hamas’s terrorism while knowing of its terrorist activities and desiring to help those activities succeed.” What civil litigant, on his own, and without access to hard intelligence, would be able to trace terrorist funding sufficiently to link it to a “fatal attack,” or to establish its aforeknowledge and support. It is extremely unlikely that any terrorist organizations such as Hamas would share information about its terrorist activities with those providing funding for its activities. Such details of envisaged or planned terrorist attacks are always closely held. It is already evident from so many failed criminal trials seeking to attribute “prior knowledge” or “terrorism motivation” to entities that use “charitable giving” as a cover for their terrorism financing activities, that proving such involvement is dubious, and often impossible. These evidentiary standards just don’t fit the reality of terrorism cases where court room evidence concerning the financing and interior workings of terrorist organizations is so extremely difficult to obtain. And even where such evidence may be available to government entities, it is usually classified and considered too sensitive for use in court, or to share with terrorism victims. In such cases it is clear the civil plaintiffs have no choice but to try and “piggyback” much of their evidentiary case on the criminal and administrative findings already established by US government agencies and prosecutors against such entities.

This latest 7th Circuit decision may not augur well for the pending NATWEST and Credit Lyonnais cases now before the New York Eastern Federal District Court. Senior District Court Judge Sifton, in upholding the claims presented in that case, wrote that:

“The requirement that the defendant have specifically intended to further terrorist activities finds no basis in the statute’s language which requires only that the defendant “knowingly provide material support or resources to a foreign terrorist organization” but makes no mention of any specific intent. Such a reading in fact clashes with Congress’s intent. When Congress enacted section 2339B, section 2339A already prohibited the act of providing material support or resources to further illegal terrorist activities when done by an individual “knowing or intending that they are to be used in preparation for, or in carrying out” enumerated terrorist activities…. Congress’s choice to omit the word “intending” from 2339B, while using it in 2339A suggests that Congress did not wish for 2339B to include an intent requirement.”

Compare this to the 7th Circuit Court majority opinion which states:

“To say that funding simpliciter constitutes an act of terrorism is to give the statute an almost unlimited reach. Any act which turns out to facilitate terrorism, however remote that act may be from actual violence and regardless of the actor’s intent, could be construed to “involve” terrorism. Without also requiring the plaintiffs to show knowledge of and intent to further the payee’s violent criminal acts, such a broad definition might also lead to constitutional infirmities by punishing mere association with groups that engage in terrorism . So merely giving money to Hamas or a Hamas-affiliated entity would not by itself suffice to establish civil liability under section 2333 for terrorist acts committed by the agents of Hamas. The Boims would have to show that the donor was aware of Hamas’s terrorist activities and intended to further those activities and also that the murder of David Boim “was a reasonably foreseeable result of making the donation.”

Could it be that we will see a clear divergence between the 7th Circuit and the 2nd Circuit on this very important evidentiary issue?

NEFA Foundation: Taliban Dismisses Mansour Dadullah as Top Military Commander

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new communiqué from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban) announcing the sudden dismissal of Mansour Dadullah as their top military commander. According to the statement, "Mansour Dadullah has refused to obey our orders… and has carried out acts that are not compatible with the aims of the Islamic Emirate. Due to this, we have decided the following: to remove Mansour Dadullah from his post as military commander and immediately revoke his authority to perform all major tasks, and to remove him from any position of responsibility within the Islamic Emirate. Nor should anyone recognize him as a leader or official from the Islamic Emirate."

An English translation of the communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

NEFA Foundation: "Al-Qaida Network in the Islamic Maghreb" Claims "Victories in Algeria and Mauritania"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated the latest communiqué issued by "the Al-Qaida Network in the Islamic Maghreb" (formerly known as the Salafist Group for Prayer and Combat, GSPC) claiming responsibility for recent terrorist attacks in Algeria and neighboring Mauritania. According to the statement, "This operation has come at a time when the Israeli flag was seen raised in the beloved, but tarnished city of Nouakchott... at a time when the Mauritanian regime has consumed itself with supporting the crusaders, arresting young Muslim men, spreading hunger among its people—and all while guarding its lords… and fighting against the jihad and the mujahideen... We inform the slaves of America and France to be prepared for more horrific events coming their way.”

The communique also discussed the recent suicide bombing attack on a United Nations complex in Algiers, mocking the supposed ineptitude of the Algerian government: "Behold as your Interior Minister attempts to hide the facts from you. Despite the fact that he knew the intentions of the mujahideen to attack the United Nations headquarters and the Constitutional Council once he had seized the surveillance video found on the cell phone of commander Sufyan Abu Haydara, the mujahideen were still able to penetrate their fortresses, causing them much damage.”

An English translation of the statement can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

2007: A Global Assessment of the Confrontation

By Walid Phares

The conflict we call the War on Terror still continues at the end of 2007 and all indications are that its battlefields are expected to spread further, and escalate, in the upcoming year. The following is a global assessment of the confrontation that has taken place since 2001, though the systematic war waged by the Jihadi forces against democracies and the free world began at least a decade before 9/11. This evaluation isn't comprehensive or definitive, but a collection of observations related to major benchmarks, directions and projections.

Global cohesion lacking

The main powers and allies involved in the War on Terror still lack global cohesion. While the US integrates its efforts in the ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq with its efforts globally to defeat al Qaeda and contain nuclear proliferation of rogue regimes like Iran, other powers and blocs of countries have different outlooks and plans. While Britain and other U.S partners in Europe espouse common views on the global scale, France, Germany, Spain and Italy agree on the Afghan theater but still are uninvolved in the Iraqi theater. All Atlantic partners, however, pursue al Qaeda and consider it -- along with other Salafi networks -- as the principal threat. Also, most Western partners perceive the Iranian threat as serious, although differ in the ways in which to respond. Non-Western powers fighting Jihadist forces do not necessarily unite in the international arena against a common foe. India is targeted by Islamists but doesn't associate with the US-led efforts in the Middle East. Russia is also at war with Jihadi terror, yet it distances itself from the Afghan theater, opposes the US in Iraq, and worse, backs the two terror-spreading regimes in Tehran and Damascus.

In the region, Western-inclined governments claim they fight "terrorism" but only the terrorists who threaten their own regimes, not the worldwide Jihadi threat. The current Turkish government fights the terrorist-coined PKK, but isn't concerned with the growth of Wahhabism and Khomeinism in the region. Saudi Arabia dismantles al Qaeda cells inside the Kingdom but still spreads fundamentalism worldwide. Qatar hosts the largest US base in the region, and at the same time funds the most notorious indoctrination programs on al Jazeera. In short, there are several "wars" on terror worldwide. Surely America is leading the widest campaign, but efforts around the globe are still dispersed, uncoordinated, and in many cases, contradictive

Read More »

Has al-Qaeda Adopted a New Terror Tactic?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

In an article published yesterday, Time's Bruce Crumley claims that Benazir Bhutto's assassination may represent a new terror tactic for al-Qaeda. (Of course, responsibility for the assassination has not yet been determined definitively. Based on my intelligence sources, and despite the shifting and sometimes farcical explanations of Pakistan's government, I believe that al-Qaeda and aligned Islamic terror groups are the most likely culprit.) Crumley writes, "Up until now, the violent methods employed by al-Qaeda and its operatives around the globe have largely eschewed single assassinations or the targeting of political leaders." In case the reader is skeptical since assassination attempts orchestrated by Islamic militant groups have targeted Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf in the past, Crumley addresses this: "Islamist radicals have been accused in the past of plotting to kill Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf because of his alliance with the U.S. and its war on terror. Those purported attempts produced near-misses at best." Thus Crumley concludes that "[i]f the path from Bhutto's murder leads to the al-Qaeda camp, it could well indicate political assassination, once an exception to the rules, has now become a must-do in the jihadist playbook."

Put simply, this analysis is entirely wrong-headed. Let's begin with the "purported attempts" against Musharraf. There is, in actuality, nothing purported about them. Islamic militants' attempts to kill Musharraf were quite real, and to brush them off as "near-misses at best" dramatically understates the effort and skill that went into these attempts. In Frontline Pakistan, Zahid Hussain writes of the twin assassination attempts against Musharraf in December 2003: "Security was always tight when [Musharraf] travelled, with roads closed to allow his long motorcade to pass rapidly. . . . In both the attempts it was clear that the perpetrators had the assistance of experts and were given tracking and other devices not usually available to local terrorists." Moreover, Hussain states that these attempts "could not have been possible without inside contacts." Musharraf has faced at least nine attempts on his life since 2001, and perhaps more.

Another problem with Crumley's article is that the turn to assassinations by al-Qaeda and terrorists closely aligned with the network is not at all new. It stretches back at least to the mid-1990s, and includes the following:

• Benazir Bhutto herself had been targeted before, as Ramzi Yousef tried to kill her in the mid-1990s.
• Ahmad Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance that challenged the Taliban's dominance in Afghanistan, was killed by two suicide bombers disguised as journalists two days before 9/11.
  
• In the mid-1990s, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed plotted to assassinate then-president Bill Clinton and Pope John Paul II during their visits to the Philippines.
• In his hearing before Gitmo's Combatant Status Review Tribunal, KSM admitted to plotting to kill former president Jimmy Carter.
• American citizen Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, a former valedictorian at the Islamic Saudi Academy in Alexandria, Virginia, was convicted in late 2005 of plotting to assassinate President George W. Bush.
• Islamic terrorists have tried to kill Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz during their travels overseas.
• Multiple assassination attempts have targeted Afghan president Hamid Karzai.
• The high mortality rate among Afghan and Iraqi politicians attests to the specific targeting of political leaders in both countries.

This list is not exhaustive, but it suffices to demonstrate the inaccuracy of claiming that al-Qaeda and affiliated terror groups "have largely eschewed single assassinations or the targeting of political leaders." They have in fact engaged in both for well over a decade. If al-Qaeda was responsible for Bhutto's assassination, it does not signal a change in the terror group's playbook. The killers remained on familiar ground.

Alleged Al Qaeda Spokesman Denies Involvement in Bhutto Attack (edited)

By Andrew Cochran

(UPDATE: See actual video of the shooting of Benazir Bhutto.)

From AFP News:

Alleged Al-Qaeda leader Baitullah Mehsud denied any involvement in Benazir Bhutto's death after the Pakistan government blamed him for the killing, his spokesman told AFP on Saturday.

"He had no involvement in this attack," spokesman Maulana Omar said in a telephone call. "This is a conspiracy of the government, army and intelligence agencies."

The spokesman said he was calling from Pakistan's Waziristan area, a lawless tribal region where Pakistani government forces have been battling Islamist militants.

"It is against tribal tradition and custom to attack a woman," Omar said.

The Pakistan Interior Ministry claims Mehsud directed the October Karachi bombing against Bhutto that killed over 140 people. From the Associated Press:

Mehsud heads Tehrik-i-Taliban, a newly formed coalition of Islamic militants committed to waging holy war against the government, which is a key U.S. ally in its war on terror. Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party accused the government of trying to frame Mehsud, saying the militant — through emissaries — had previously told Bhutto he was not involved in the Karachi bombing.

A point to consider: Bhutto could have been killed easily at any time while living in Dubai, according to a CT Blog fan (someone I have cited often) who lived near Bhutto and met her in a hotel there. Bhutto had been preparing for her return for some time before she actually entered the country. The perpetrators intentionally waited for her entry into Pakistan for maximum exposure and impact.

EDIT: I added "Alleged" to the title to qualify Mehsud's affiliation with Al Qaeda, consistent with his description in the AFP article. Strictly speaking, Tehrik-i-Taliban is not Al Qaeda. CNN quotes a "senior US official" who describes Mehsud as a "Taliban leader" and attributing the attack to Mehsud. You can read a BBC profile of Mehsud.

Animesh Roul discussed Mehsud in posts about the situation in Pakistan on February 12 and on November 9.

Landmark Civil Terrorism Decision Overturned - Victory For Holy Land Foundation, Defeat For Terrorism Victims

By Andrew Cochran

The Holy Land Foundation won an important victory in a U.S. courtroom on Friday, when the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a $156 million judgment against it, other Islamic charities in the U.S., and an alleged Hamas fundraiser. The case arose out of the 1996 murder of David Boim, a 17-year-old American citizen, who was killed in a Hamas terrorist attack in the West Bank. David’s parents sued men who were directly involved in the murder; the Holy Land Foundation (HLF); the American Muslim Society, also known as the Islamic Association for Palestine (IAP); the Quranic Literacy Institute (QLI); the United Association for Studies and Research (UASR); Saleh, the alleged Hamas fundraiser; and others (see this summary judgement order from the first trial for the complete list). Saleh was eventually convicted of obstruction of justice for lying under oath in connection with the suit.

The initial decision was the first in which U.S.-based charities which allegedly raised funds for Hamas were ordered to pay the victims of Hamas' terrorist attacks. So the Seventh Circuit's decision (102-page Acrobat file) is a huge disappointment for terrorism victims who seek to hold financiers responsible for the murderous acts of the groups they fund. The Court ordered a retrial and held the following:

On remand, the Boims will have to demonstrate an adequate causal link between the death of David Boim and the actions of HLF, Salah, and AMS. This will require evidence that the conduct of each defendant, be it direct involvement with or support of Hamas’s terrorist activities or indirect support of Hamas or its affiliates, helped bring about the terrorist attack that ended David Boim’s life. A defendant’s conduct need not have been the sole or predominant cause of the attack; on the contrary, consistent with the intent of Congress that liability for terrorism extend the full length of the causal chain, even conduct that indirectly facilitated Hamas’s terrorist activities might render a defendant liable for the death of David Boim. But the plaintiffs must be able to produce some evidence permitting a jury to find that the activities of HLF, Salah, and AMS contributed to the fatal attack on David Boim and were therefore a cause in fact of his death. Absent such proof, those appellants will be entitled to judgment in their favor.

In the first trial, the court held the following:

(I)n the years after the United States designated Hamas as an SDT, HLF provided significant funding (hundreds of thousands of dollars) to the following organizations: the Islamic Charity Association (a.k.a. Islamic Charitable Society in Hebron), Ramallah Zakat Committee, Jenin Zakat Committee, Nablus Zakat Committee, Tolkarem Zakat Committee, Orphan Care Association in Bethlehem, Qalqiliyah Zakat Committee, Hebron Zakat Committee (a.k.a. Hebron Tithing and Alms Committee), Dar El Salam Hospital, Islamic Aid Committee (a.k.a. Islamic Relief Agency), Sanabil Association for Relief and Development, and the Human Appeal International-Jordan. See Transcript of Deposition of Shukri Abu-Baker, pp. 170-76; see also AR 1209-15 (attached as Exhibit 4 to Plaintiffs’ (IAP/AMS) Rule 56.1 Statement). The evidence further shows that all of these organizations are either known fronts for Hamas, known supporters of Hamas, or entities whose funding is known to benefit the Hamas agenda.

During the recent Holy Land Foundation criminal trial in Dallas, which ended in a mistrial, the prosecution presented evidence of financial transfers between several of the defendants in the Boim case:

FBI Agent Lara Burns’ testimony continued Wednesday morning, as prosecutors introduced bank records to expose close financial ties between the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) and HAMAS leader Musa Abu Marzook, (in the news today for denouncing a planned September peace conference between Israelis and Palestinians) as well as the Islamic Association for Palestine (IAP) , United Association for Studies and Research (UASR), and Infocom - all U.S.- based who acted on behalf of HAMAS.

Payments by Marzook to HLF started in 1988 and ended in 1992, a year when Marzook transferred two $100,000 payments to HLF within ten days. Agent Burns testified before the jury that during this time, Marzook was not employed.

Lead prosecutor Jim Jacks introduced evidence showing that Marzook also transferred over a one million dollars to UASR, IAP and Infocom, as well as tens of thousands to the defendants Mohammad El Mezain, Shukri Abu Baker, Ghassan Elashi during this same period.

HLF itself also paid almost $250,000 to IAP between 1989 and 2001, and over $400,000 to Infocom between 1990 and 2001...

Bank records also showed that in a two month period in 1988, HLF transferred over $250,000 to the bank account of Khairy Al Ahga, a Hamas financier in Saudi Arabia.

Those transfers and others were insufficient, according to the Seventh Circuit. Instead, a more direct causal link between the defendants and the murders must be shown, which, in my opinion, is neither possible to establish by a preponderance of the evidence, nor the intent of the Congress. Applying this standard would make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for terrorism victims to receive compensation from those whose funds made a particular attack possible.

Odds and Ends at Year's End

By Douglas Farah

Like the stock market, this year had some ups and a lot of downs. Here is how it looks to me:

On a macro level, the conflict is growing more chaotic. States cannot hold firm in the face of the widespread and growing assaults by non-state actors that threaten them. The primary enemy, militant Islamist extremism, is less coherent that it is generally portrayed, but it doesn't need to be rigidly hierarchical structure to succeed.

The movement thrives from various, decentralized hubs which may, but do not need, to seek guidance and direction from others. The Internet, other methods of direct communication and the constant river of wahhabi/salafist money and teaching create the virus that is spreading rapidly, and cannot be controlled through traditional means or strategies.

The most recent example, of course, is the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, with a cast of thousands of potential perpetrators, including the state or rogue actors within the state.

If it was an al Qaeda-affiliated group that carried out the murder, it could have been simply an attempt to carry out the will of Allah as those involved understand that will. When their God speaks, they listen, and no further justification or thought is necessary.

State laws and means for prosecution remain woefully outdated, slow and ponderous. There is little of the legal agility needed to fight a against an enemy that uses front groups, deception, violence and lack of transparency as part of its primary tactics.

This leads to a lack of cohesion and consistency. I am not arguing for a diminishing of basic rights. But states have to come up with new methods, even those that will be challenged in court and written about in the media, that will allow it to move forward. If those methods and tools are not viewed as legitimate by most of the people in that country, they will eventually be tossed out as illegitimate. My full blog is here.

Pakistan & A Bomb Too Far

By Aaron Mannes

Less than a week before the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, there had been another bloody assassination attempt in Pakistan - both could represent turning points in Pakistan’s ongoing struggle with Islamist violence.

In northwest Pakistan a suicide bomber detonated his bomb inside a crowded mosque on Eid al-Adha (the Islamic Feast of Sacrifice which marks the end of the annual hajj.) The attack was an attempt to kill former Interior Minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao. Forty-eight people were killed and over 100 were wounded, including Sherpao's son and two grandnephews. Sherpao was unharmed.

This was the second attempt on Sherpao’s life in eight months, the previous attempt at a political rally in nearby Charsadda, 28 were killed and Sherpao was slightly wounded.

That Islamists would attack Sherpao is unsurprising. As Interior Minister he was a top security official and a key player in the Lal Masjid Mosque crackdown that has sparked the present high levels of violence. But for an Islamist to enter a mosque on a major holiday and murder innocent worshipers should be beyond the pale - even for radical Islamists.

Read the complete post here.

Reflections Concerning National Security

By Dennis Lormel

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto once again demonstrates how fragile life is. It also reinforces how vulnerable democratic and open societies and those seeking free societies are to devastating terrorist attacks. This underscores the importance of national security.
The intelligence and law enforcement community, most notably the CIA and FBI, should be afforded the best mechanisms to collect, assess and act upon intelligence information. Agency leaders along with Director of National Security Mike McConnell have consistently articulated the need for enhanced intelligence collection capabilities. Unfortunately, over the past year a debate has raged in the media between enhanced intelligence capabilities, which would improve national security and the need to protect civil liberties. There is a perception in certain circles that enhanced intelligence capabilities place civil liberties at risk. The reality is, the lack of enhanced intelligence capabilities place our national security at risk. The assassination of Ms. Bhutto is a stark reminder of this.

We have been fortunate that we have not experienced a terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001. An important reason for this has been the outstanding performance of the dedicated public professionals responsible for ensuring our national security and safety. They deserve our admiration and support. Many of these individuals work tireless hours, under constant stress, and adverse conditions. They seldom receive recognition for their dedication or accomplishments. To a great extent, these seemingly faceless people are the ones responsible for the fact that there has not been a terrorist attack in the United States since 9/11.

Unfortunately, the contributions, sacrifices and accomplishments of our protectors have been overshadowed. It’s somewhat disheartening that instead of accolades, the government seems to be mired down by those heaping inordinate fault and criticism. Certain media outlets and detractors of government intelligence gathering operations and techniques have excessively railed against select issues. Earlier this year, the FBI was taken to task over deficiencies in the use of National Security Letters (NSLs). At the present time, the CIA is on the firing line over interrogation techniques and the destruction of interview video tapes. These are serious issues that deserve serious attention. However, in the case of the NSL deficiencies the criticisms were overblown and out of context. The criticisms over the interrogation techniques have been relentless and verge on being overblown. In any event the harsh criticisms leveled at select issues have eclipsed the tremendous successes achieved on a daily basis.

This type of relentless media coverage and criticism is counterproductive and more harmful than helpful. The constant portrayal of government agencies as being more villainous than terrorists only serves to facilitate the ideological war being waged by terrorists. The fact of the matter is the terrorists are heinous villains. There have been few if any protracted media stories criticizing the reality that terrorists want to kill Americans and people like Benazir Bhutto who identify with Western values. A constant stream of stories exposing the senseless and cowardly acts of suicide bombers and terrorists would undermine their ideological war.

Bhutto Murder Fits Pattern of Lashkar I Jhangvi Terrorism, With Nasty Implications

By Jonathan Winer

We don't yet know whether Al- Qaeda Commander and spokesman Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid told the truth in his phone call to Italian news agency Adnkronos International (AKI) when he stated that the decision to kill Bhutto was made by Al- Qaeda No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri in October, 2007, and carried out by a cell involving a "Punjabi volunteer" of Lashkar-i-Jhangvi ("LIJ").

But the involvement of LIJ fits the past pattern of its terrorist activities, which link up with Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and which are profoundly committed to destroying secular rule in Pakistan.

As summarized by the US Department of State, LIJ is a Sunni-Deobandi Muslim extremist group, based mostly in the Punjab region of Pakistan and Karachi. It has assisted in several high-profile attacks on Westerners in Pakistan, including the January 2002 kidnapping and murder of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl. In 2002, LIJ banded with two other Sunni extremist groups to form the Pakistani wing of al Qaeda. Their goal? Ending secular rule and replacing it with a Sunni Muslim state.

LIJ has implemented this goal through a series of lethal attacks on sectarian rivals, including the types of people who have the greatest symbolic value as victims of terrorism. They thus have murdered priests, diplomats, religious leaders, and people while they are actually engaged in worship. Notably, LIJ claimed responsibility for attempting to assassinate Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999.

LIJ is reportedly a very small organization, with perhaps as few as 100 members. Even if it were not responsible for Bhutto's assassination, it had already exercised a disproportionately destructive impact on Pakistan, the region, and the world. And all in the name of destroying secularism, and replacing it with a Taliban-like theocracy.

With LIJ's involvement, this assassination has symbolic importance in addition to its huge practical political consequences. Taking them at their word, LIJ and Al Qaeda are saying that they intend to take Pakistan and make it their kind of state, rather than the western-oriented, secular democracy promised by Benazir Bhutto. In the near term, it will be up to a weakened, compromised, and unpopular Pervez Musharraf to extirpate this fundamental (as well as fundamentalist) threat to Pakistan's future, after having failed to do so to date. Optimism may not be warranted.

Renegade Commando Units Possibly Involved in Bhutto Killing

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Over at the New York Sun, Eli Lake reports on a possibility that I have also heard about from sources within government:

The attack yesterday at Rawalpindi bore the hallmarks of a sophisticated military operation. At first, Bhutto's rally was hit by a suicide bomb that turned out to be a decoy. According to press reports and a situation report of the incident relayed to The New York Sun by an American intelligence officer, Bhutto's armored limousine was shot by multiple snipers whose armor-piercing bullets penetrated the vehicle, hitting the former premier five times in the head, chest, and neck. Two of the snipers then detonated themselves shortly after the shooting, according to the situation report, while being pursued by local police. A separate attack was thwarted at the local hospital where Bhutto possibly would have been revived had she survived the initial shooting. . . . A working theory, according to this American source, is that Al Qaeda or affiliated jihadist groups had effectively suborned at least one unit of Pakistan's Special Services Group, the country's equivalent of Britain's elite SAS commandos. . . . "They just killed the most protected politician in the whole country," this source said. "We really don't know a lot at this point, but the first thing that is happening is we are asking the Pakistani military to account for every black team with special operations capabilities."

Lake's source stressed to him that "this was just a theory at this point": early reports about situations such as the Bhutto assassination are, in general, unreliable. Once forensic analysis of the bomb type and bullets used to kill Bhutto has been performed, that should shed light on whether military units were indeed involved. Moreover, as of last night nobody had been placed in custody yet for the assassination. The questioning of suspects should also shed light on what exactly happened. As a senior intelligence source wrote yesterday in an e-mail to me, "While the general identity of the perpetrators is known (al-Qaeda), much of the specifics remain extremely elusive and will likely continue for the time being until more information comes out."

For a large number of reasons, it is extremely rare for military units -- particularly elite units such as those that can be found within Pakistan's Special Services Group -- to be suborned by non-governmental actors. According to my sources, there may have also been other unreported attacks against figures within Pakistan's government. The media is pretty much on lockdown in Pakistan, not an infrequent occurrence in that country.

Particularly salient among the points that Lake's source made is the remark that Bhutto was "the most protected politician in the whole country." Now many Pakistani politicians must be thinking, "If they can get Bhutto, they can get me too." Most will not want to be the sole voice behind the podium calling for serious action in the tribal areas.

To that extent, one critical question is who takes over the Pakistan Peoples Party following Bhutto's death. Yesterday a colleague of mine circulated a short white paper arguing that the PPP "should be encouraged to select a forceful new leader to stand for prime minister as soon as possible, and take up the standard of Bhutto’s fight for liberty and democracy and against extremism." Though I agree with this, I wonder if they will be able to find such a voice under the circumstances. For more, the New York Times discusses the PPP's early search for a new leader.

Paul Cruickshank Joins Us As Contributing Expert

By Andrew Cochran

Paul Cruickshank, a Fellow at the Center on Law and Security at New York University’s School of Law, joins us today as our newest Contributing Expert. Paul graduated from Cambridge University with a degree in history, and has a Masters degree with Honors in International Relations from the Paul. H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University. He has also worked in the European Parliament in Brussels and at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C.

He collaborated closely with Peter Bergen in interviewing acquaintances of Osama bin Laden for Bergen’s 2006 oral history "The Osama bin Laden I Know" and worked with CNN on a two-hour Emmy-nominated documentary “In the footsteps of bin Laden.” Paul has written about al Qaeda and Islamist groups for a number of publications including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The New Republic and Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. He has provided on-air analysis to CNN, BBC, NBC, CBS, BBC, Fox News and Al Jazeera on national security issues. He wrote an article on the Bhutto assassination for The Guardian yesterday titled, "Plan B For Pakistan:"

We look forward to Paul's contributions.

What a Coincidence! New Osama bin Laden Tape Coming Soon (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Laura Mansfield, Evan Kohlmann, and Rita Katz's SITE Institute report that Islamist websites are announcing a new OBL tape, discussing Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq, titled “The Way to Contain the Conspiracies” (revised translation). This comes on the day of the Bhutto assassination and also in the wake of the removal of several key ISI and Al Qaeda-in-Iraq operatives recently. Ahmed Turki Abbas, self-proclaimed "defense minister" of Islamic State of Iraq, was captured by the Iraqi Army in Baghdad. Abu Abdullah, a.k.a. Muhammad Sulayman Shunaythir al-Zubai and an experienced bombmaker and attack leader, was killed by U.S. forces on November 8. An unnamed "high-value" Al Qaeda target linked to suicide bomb attacks, including the car bombing of the Australian Embassy in Baghdad, was killed by missiles fired by a U.S.-piloted helicopter. I will assume that the timing of this tape has more to do with events there and not in Pakistan.

The last OBL tape was released in late November. Evan Kohlmann posted a link to the entire transcript, while Walid Phares posted his analysis.

UPDATE: A Reuters report has the tape titled, "The Path to Foiling Plots in Iraq," and quotes OBL criticizing Al Jazeera for allegedly misrepresenting his October tape: "May God expose the cover-up by Al Jazeera, the channel of the infidels." Recall that many commentators, including Walid Phares (see his post on that tape), interpreted OBL's criticism of ISI as a defeatist message.

I will update this post as more becomes available.

Bhutto Assassination A Reminder This Is A Real War

By Bill West

Today's assassination in Pakistan of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto should be a stark reminder that terrorists are engaged in a very real war against modern civilized society. Bhutto had her own ethically questionable background; but her current public political posture was pro-Western, democratic, peaceful and against the radical Islamic terrorists who may have been responsible for her death. While the investigation must go forward, initial speculation is pointing to those radical Islamic terrorist elements operating in Pakistan, perhaps even al-Qaeda.

What happens over the next several days will be a crucial test for the Pakistani people and government. It may also indicate if this attack is part of a larger jihadist plan of action within Pakistan. Given Pakistan's supposed critical status as an ally of the US in counter-terrorism efforts, and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, what happens inside Pakistan over the coming days and weeks should be of grave concern to America and the West.

Apart from the obvious, it should be remembered that Pakistan has many expatriates living in the United Kingdom, many of whom possess UK passports and can travel to the United States under the liberal Visa Waiver Program. The United States itself has been generous in providing nonimmigrant visas, such as student visas, to Pakistani nationals. The vast majority of Pakistanis are not terrorists. However, hidden among the vast majority will be the dangerous radical few. Former Federal prosecutor Andrew McCarthy had an outstanding piece today in NRO covering the Bhutto assassination and is well worth reading. It provides eye-opening insight to what many within Pakistan really believe.

This, combined with a US immigration system that has a less than stellar record for anything close to control and oversight and there does exist the possibility for terrorist infiltration from Pakistan, or a third "way point" country, into the United States. We should not forget convicted terrorists Ramzi Yousef and Aimal Khan Kasi, both of whom called Pakistan home and both of whom engaged in immigration fraud to secure entry and residence within the US. Given today's events in Rawalpindi, it is likely we will see more like Yousef and Kasi on US soil in the future.

Reports: Imminent Statement Expected from Al-Qaida's Mustafa Abu Yazid Claiming Credit for Bhutto Assassination

By Evan Kohlmann

There are now widespread reports suggesting that an imminent official statement is expected from Egyptian Al-Qaida spokesman Mustafa Abu Yazid claiming responsibility for the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Earlier today, Al-Qaida issued a separate statement from Mustafa Abu Yazid denying any role in recent blasts targeting mosques in the Pakistani border city of Peshawar. According to that communique from Abu Yazid (dated December 24), "We do not attack targets in mosques or in public places where there are crowds of Muslims in order to safeguard Muslim blood and to respect the sanctity of mosques. This is our approach generally, and we inform all of our supporters in Pakistan--and everywhere else--about these facts."

It should be noted that is not the first time that Al-Qaida and its affiliates have allegedly targeted Benazir Bhutto for assassination. During the Philippine police interrogation of Abdul Hakim Murad--an associate of 1993 World Trade Center bombing mastermind Ramzi Yousef--Murad recalled that Yousef "once made a statement that BHUTTO should be replaced as PM of Pakistan since Islamic belief does not allow a woman to occupy such position and that [mujahideen organizations] should do something to unseat her. Said statement indicates that [Yousef] might be planning to carry out an attack against the PM of Pakistan." Likewise, during the mid-1990s, the FBI recorded several telephone conversations involving Kifah Jayyousi and Adham Hassoun (who were recently convicted in federal court for their role in recruiting would-be Al-Qaida operative Jose Padilla) in which the men discussed "getting rid" of the late Pakistani Prime Minister--who they referred to as "Khanazir Bhutto" ("Bhutto the Pig"): "She's done... done... she... she was finished... finished, my brother... I was reading about the life... the life of the Prophet, peace and blessing upon him... 'Men are ruined if they are to obey women'. Praise to God."

This post will be updated as news continues to break.

Analysis of the Bhutto Assassination

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I just participated in a symposium at National Review Online about Benazir Bhutto's assassination. Here is the analysis that I offered:

Benazir Bhutto’s assassination is a tragedy, and likely a strategic setback as well. It is tragic because, despite the notorious corruption of Bhutto’s administration, in many ways she represented the best that Pakistan has to offer. Bhutto boldly opposed the fundamentalists’ dark vision for Pakistan and was openly pro-West. After the unsuccessful attempt on Bhutto’s life in October, she called out by name the figures whom she believed were complicit.

The most likely culprit in Bhutto’s death is al-Qaeda and aligned militant groups — the same groups who swore they would kill Bhutto when her return to Pakistan was announced, the same groups who tried to kill her in October. If al-Qaeda was indeed responsible, this is another stark reminder of the group’s regeneration in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership has returned to the levels of power they enjoyed in Afghanistan before U.S. forces toppled the Taliban, and Bhutto’s death has to be considered a major victory for them. There is also evidence that Bhutto’s assassination, much like the October attempt on her life, may have been assisted by Islamic militants who have infiltrated Pakistan’s military and intelligence services.

Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has never risen to the occasion in the face of danger. He has attempted to broker compromises even following assassination attempts that targeted him. The Waziristan accords, consummated in 2006, were one sign of how Musharraf has attempted to negotiate away Pakistan’s problem with Islamic militancy: those accords essentially formalized al-Qaeda’s safe haven in the country’s Waziristan region. In no way were those accords an isolated event: Pakistan’s further concessions in 2007 included the Bajaur, Swat, and Mohmand tribal agencies.

Bhutto’s death also makes former prime minister Nawaz Sharif Pakistan’s top opposition figure. Sharif has attempted to appeal to Islamic militants, arguing that Pakistan needs to pare down its cooperation with the United States. Sharif has already capitalized on Bhutto’s death, visiting the hospital where she was declared dead, blasting Musharraf for providing Bhutto with insufficient security, and calling for a reunification of Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party and his own Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz.

Bhutto’s assassination once again spotlights the need for the U.S. to formulate a feasible Pakistan policy, something I have called for previously.

You can read the entire symposium -- which includes contributions from Bill Roggio, Jonathan Foreman, and Mansoor Ijaz, among others -- here. For more on our policy options in Pakistan, see the cover story that I wrote for the Weekly Standard back in October, "While Pakistan Burns."

Bhutto's Assassinaton Needs a Real Investigation

By Aaron Mannes

Facts about Benazir Bhutto's assassination are in short supply. Unfortunately that is unlikely to change. There is a long tradition of failure to investigate political murders in Pakistan. This cannot continue if Pakistan is to become a stable democratic state that serves its people and exists at peace with the world. The first step is that Musharraf invite the international community to advise in the investigation into Bhutto’s death. The investigation will be politically expensive - it may not reach Musharraf himself but it will reach deep into the civilian and military elites running Pakistan. Broad, tough international engagement is essential to seeing this forward - the stakes are very high.

While the Islamists are the most likely suspects, they certainly hated Bhutto as a secular female politician - Bhutto had many other enemies. As I noted after the October attempt on Bhutto’s life:

In courting Western support for her return to Pakistan, Bhutto promised that the International Atomic Energy Agency would receive access to A. Q. Khan, father of the Pakistani nuclear program and head of an international clandestine nuclear proliferation ring, who is currently under house arrest. It is inconceivable that Khan carried out his operations without substantial assistance from figures in Pakistan’s military and intelligence services.

A thorough investigation might be a first step to countering the rot pervading Pakistani politics. But if the murderers and their backers can get away with this murder Pakistan’s downward spiral will only continue.

Read the full post here.

Pakistan on the Brink: Assassination of Benezir Bhutto triggers widespread violence in Pakistan

By Animesh Roul

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in a terror attack during a political rally in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. Over 20 people killed and many more injured in this suicide attack. As per sources, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader was shot in the neck and chest as she was entering her vehicle after addressing the campaign rally at Liaqat Bagh Park. (This where Pakistan's first prime minister Liaqat Ali Khan was assassinated in early 1950s). Soon after the gunshot, the bomber blew himself up amid the crowd. It was reported that the bombers came in a motor bike. Another version coming from the government sources that she died when splinters/pellets from the blast pierced through her body.

Benazir Bhutto who served Pakistan as Prime Minister twice, in 1988 and in 1996. She faced with a similar attempt when she returned to Pakistan from an eight year old exile in October this year. Even though she escaped that suicide attack, more than 100 people, mostly supporters of Bhutto killed in the incident. As the news spread, violent rioting started across Pakistan. Karachi, Islamabad and Pindi cities are witnessing widespread traffic congestions as people descended to the streets and resorting to violence and arson.

Taliban commander Baitulah Mesud's hand is suspected in this assassination.

There is no doubt that the assassination of Bhutto will deepen the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan. The big question now before the Musharaf regime is that whether to hold the election or impose country wide emergency again.

Benazir Bhutto's Assassination -- a Lethal Assault on Democracy

By Jonathan Winer

The assassination of any political leader engaged in a campaign is a blow to democracy. This one is especially tragic. Benazir Bhutto, had enormous gifts, intelligence, education, the ability to lead, great speaking ability, and a charisma that exceeded what I have encountered in any other individual. She bridged the traditional and the modern, and understood the west in general and the United States in particular. She was someone who the U.S. could actually work with to seek a way forward for Pakistan in light of the profound challenges posed by religious intolerance and political extremism, the drug trade, governmental institutions that do not provide essential services in many areas of the country, and Pakistan's troubled relationships with of its immediate neighbors -- Afghanistan, India, and Iran.

Her faults were also profound, as the well-documented grand corruption cases brought against her and her husband attest. She did indeed treat her country like it was a family-owned business, with corrosive results. The corruption provided the excuse for her removal from power in 1990 and again in 1996, weakening her politically and telegraphing to others that they could siphon funds, too. The corruption was thus central in preventing the Bhutto governments from delivering the reforms needed to make Pakistan's government responsive to the needs of its people.

And yet, with all of her flaws, Benazir Bhutto was, for now, Pakistan's best opportunity to take on both militancy and --if she had the will to do so -- further reforms. The extremists knew this, and so she was prime target. As she herself said just a few weeks ago, after surviving an earlier assassination attempt aimed at her that killed 136 people:

"What does the attack last night signify? The attack was more an attack on the unity and integrity of the country than on any individual or any one political party. It was an attack on Pakistan itself. It was an attack on their political rights, on the political process and on democracy itself. The attack last night was a message sent by the enemies of democracy to all the political parties of the country. It was intended to intimidate and blackmail all the political forces and elements working for democracy and human rights in the country. It was a warning not only to me and the PPP (People's Political Party) but to all political parties -- indeed, to the entire civil society."

Her personal failings undermined, but did not eradicate, the principles she stood for within Pakistan, which have been characterized by Brookings scholar Stephen Cohen as "progressive social and economic policies; accommodation with India; good relations with all of the major powers (including the United States); gender empowerment; and a commitment to parliamentary democracy and a free press."

Here's what Cohen had to say last month about Pakistan's prospects for avoiding catastrophe:

"Benazir Bhutto, now the darling of the Administration (which foolishly ignored her for seven years), has been muted in her comments on Musharraf’s second coup; so far her arrangement with Musharraf still stands, and she hopes that between her new-found friends in Washington and Musharraf’s need to get a civilian figurehead for his government, that she will come to power again. Her years in exile have made Benazir a realist: she believes that Pakistan cannot move overnight from dictatorship to democracy, and hopes that the next election will enable her to come to at least a share of power. Her supporters also understand that the threat to Pakistan from the Islamists is mortal; as Pakistan’s most secular party, the Pakistan People’s party regards itself as better-equipped than the Islamist-leaning Nawaz Sharif to join with the army in an assault on the violent extremists. Thus, if things go as well as they can, carefully controlled elections will be held, Benazir will come to office, Musharraf will be able to retire from the army, leaving it in the hands of close and trusted advisors, and the army and Benazir, together, will tackle the extremist problem."

In short, Cohen's view was that a Bhutto election was the foundation necessary for the country to address those who would tear it apart into further spiraling violence. In the same article, he also issued this prescient warning:

"There are at least two major problems with this reasonably rosy scenario. First, the terrorists and insurgents of Pakistan may not cooperate, and surrender meekly to Pakistani forces. . . . The militants are not interested in ministerial bungalows in Islamabad, they want to turn Pakistan into a base from which they can attack other soft Muslim and Western states (and India), and even lay their hands on Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal."

Today, Pakistan lurches one step closer towards that frightening outcome. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, like too many other assassinations before it, has just changed history, and not for the better.

Previous Counterterrorism Blog Posts on First Bhutto Assassination Attempt

By Andrew Cochran

Our Contributing Experts posted several analyses and updates after the first assassination attempt on Benazir Bhutto on October 18:

Aaron Mannes: October 19, Pakistani Pressure-Cooker and October 23: Whodunnit from Hell: The Attack on Benazir Bhutto

Jeffrey Imm, October 20: Pakistan Suicide Bomb Attack on Bhutto - Investigation Update

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, October 20: While Pakistan Burns

Additionally, Animesh Roul, our Contributing Expert in India, has posted often on the various terrorist groups in Pakistan and their cross-border operations. You can see his articles on his archive page.

Just yesterday, a 15-year-old carrying a bomb made of dynamite and nails was stopped from killing Bhutto at another campaign rally. The Dawn news website in Pakistan is running special updates on the attack and reaction from around the world.

Post Script -- The PKK -- Alternate Battleground

By Frank Hyland

The drawback, the downside, in doing CT is that even when you’re right in issuing a warning, there often isn’t much enjoyment or satisfaction in the result, and sometimes a great deal of sadness. This time there is at least some degree of satisfaction. As we told you, our readers, here on December 9th, the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) would attempt to retaliate for a now-growing series of Turkish attacks on PKK Headquarters and associated camps in Iraq’s Qandil Mountain area. The attempt, we said, would be launched from one of the Kurdish-populated slum areas near one of Turkey’s major metropolitan cities. The prediction didn’t require a great deal of prescience; it was one of the safest bets to be had that a cellphone call would be placed from Iraq into Turkey.

It didn’t take long. On Monday, December 24th, barely a week after the first Turkish bombing raid on December 16th, alert Turkish police officers near a subway station in Istanbul stopped and arrested a 25-year-old man with almost seven pounds of the telltale A4 explosive popular with the PKK concealed in his backpack. A followon raid at a suspected safehouse netted another individual along with more explosives and bomb-related mechanisms. This attempt is reminiscent of another just this past April 8th, also in Istanbul, when a woman left a backpack device concealing eleven pounds of A4 in Istanbul’s Taksim Square. In this latest incident, had almost seven pounds of high explosive detonated in the enclosed spaces of a subway station in one of the most crowded districts in the city, the carnage would have been horrendous.

The lesson for Turkish authorities is that the PKK’s Istanbul-area cell is among the group’s most highly trusted, given the importance the PKK hierarchy must attach to retaliation at this juncture. The corollary is that continued vigilance is of the utmost importance because the PKK’s urban campaign has just begun.

Ghosts of Iranian Terror Past & Future

By Aaron Mannes

Last week I posted about the AMIA bombing and what it tells us about the Iranian regime.

I write often about AMIA because it is the starkest example of Iranian international terror. Iran and Hezbollah reached around the world and murdered Jewish civilians - strictly because they are Jews. This is the epitome of terrorism, even more than the Marine Barracks bombing or even the many Iranian-backed Embassy bombings (these may better be understood as acts of war - and should have been treated as such.)

But as I wrote recently on my blog The TerrorWonk:

Ghosts of Iranian Terror Past
The Buenos Aires bombings were a particularly bloody and long-range operation but it was not, an isolated instance of Iran combining diplomacy and terror. Hezbollah was founded by the Iranian Ambassador to Damascus, Ali Akbar Mohtashemi (google “Father of Hezbollah” and his name is the most frequent.) In 1985-6 a series of bombs in Paris were linked to the Iranian Embassy. When French authorities tried to question Wahid Gordji, a translator at the Iranian Embassy in Paris an armed standoff ensued (ultimately Gordji was questioned briefly and then permitted to flee to Iran.)

To read the full post describing some of Iran's past international terror activity.

Iranian international terrorism may not be completely relegated to the past, unfortunately - as I discussed in this post:

Ghosts of Iranian Terror Future
Although there are signs that Iran is tamping down violence in Iraq there are also worrying signs that Iran is ramping up for another round of international terror. Israeli intelligence has noted that Iranian Embassies are in Venezuela and Nicaragua have over 30 staffers each - far out of proportion to the scale of relations between these countries - and is expanding its diplomatic presence throughout the region. The Iranian presence in Nicaragua has become so extensive that Iran’s Ambassador in Managua actually gave an interview denying there were any Pasdaran in Nicaragua (a sure sign that they are in fact there.) There have also been a number of incidents in the United States with the Iranian mission at the UN. Every country uses its Embassy for a bit of espionage. But the Iranian tradition far exceeds the norm. Considering the long involvement of Iranian diplomats with terrorism, US military claims of Iranian diplomats engaged in inappropriate activities in Iraq should be given some credence.

Click here to read the complete post.

December 24, 2007 11:34 AM   Link

Swiss Prosecutor Drops Investigation of Yassin Al-Qadi

By Andrew Cochran

From today's Arab News:

The six-year-long saga of Saudi businessman Yassin Abdullah Al-Qadi, who was accused by US authorities of funding terrorism, has ended with the Swiss federal prosecutor exonerating him of all charges.

According to a report carried by Al-Watan newspaper yesterday, judicial authorities in Switzerland have closed the case against Al-Qadi after investigations that lasted for six years and two months.

The judgment issued by a court in Geneva on Dec. 13 said it had not found any basis for the accusations leveled against Al-Qadi. “This statement in Swiss law means clear exoneration,” the paper said quoting a lawyer for the businessman.

The lawyer, who requested anonymity, said the court verdict would lead to unfreezing Al-Qadi’s accounts in Swiss banks and the Geneva-based Faisal Bank.

Al-Qadi was designated by the U.S. Treasury Department in October 2001 for alleged financial support of Al Qaeda, something he always denied. We have followed the Al-Qadi case closely. You can read numerous posts on the matter by Victor Comras, Douglas Farah, Matthew Levitt, myself, and others here on this archive page. This move comes just five weeks after the U.S. and U.N. delisted another alleged Al Qaeda financier, Ahmed Idris Nasreddin, as reported first by Jonathan Winer.

NYT Revelation: Pakistan Diverting Chunks of Counter Terror Money Against India!

By Animesh Roul

Pakistan has been the largest recipient of Counter terror funds since 9/11. It’s Army has been receiving almost over USD 1 billion a year since 2002 under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) towards meeting the expenses incurred by Pakistan to fight terrorists. With this count Washington administration has already spent more than USD 5 billion to bolster the Pakistani military campaign against al-qaeda/Taliban. If reports are to be believed, Pakistan has received an additional US 7.5 billion to USD 9.5 billion in CSF since 2002.

Today’s New York Times has a story which paints alarming picture about Pakistan’s intention and puts question marks against it’s role in the US led War on Terror campaign. According to the report, US aid worth billions of dollars, given to Islamabad administration towards counter terror efforts have been ‘wasted and much of it was diverted to help finance weapons systems designed to counter India rather than fight al-Qaeda/Taliban combine. Centre for Public Integrity, Washington had raised this issue in May this year (Billions in Aid, With No Accountability) while investigating CSF’s funding to Pakistan. The latest NYT report will raise some thinking eyebrows in the region, both within Hawks and Doves.

[UPDATED] NEFA Foundation: New IMU Video, Statements from the Taliban and Mullah Omar, Updated "Target:America" Report

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained a new communiqué from Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammed Omar in which he appeals to "Muslims to help their Mujahedeen brothers" and "do Jihad" because it is "clear" that the "invaders will never withdraw their forces..." He also advises the Mujahedeen that they must not allow the "enemy" to create "cleavage[s]" that divide their forces. Separately, NEFA has also obtained a new communiqué from the Taliban on the battle for the town Musa Qala, which asks "how many weeks will [the] invaders be able to" maintain control of the Musa Qala district?

Both statements can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website c/o the TerrorWatch subscription service.

[*UPDATED*]
The NEFA website has also been updated with the following items:
- The NEFA Foundation has exclusively obtained and translated a new video featuring Tahir Jan Yuldashev, leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and of Al-Qaida's Central-Asian faction and a key-player on the Pak-Afghan scene. A reward of $200,000 is being offered by the U.S. military for information leading to the capture of Yuldashev. The 34 minute-long video appears to have been filmed recently and includes footage of a group of Madrassa students loyal to the IMU demonstrating their combat skills and assembling assault rifles. The core of Yuldashev's speech focuses on the need to be united against the "infidels", Jews, and their allies.
- The NEFA Foundation has released an updated "Target: America" report in light of Derrick Shareef's guilty plea and the public release of a number of documents, including summaries of FBI interviews of Shareef and an informant, as well as an 123-page prosecution filing filled with transcripts of recorded conversations. The material sheds new light on Shareef's plan to target an Illinois shopping mall, his desire to attack U.S. military facilities in America, his relationship with indicted terrorist Hassan Abujihaad, and his radicalization process. When thinking about his assault on the CherryVale Shopping Center in Rockford, Illinois, planned for December 22, 2006, Shareef told an informant, "the last thing anybody gonna be thinking about...is a damn grenade."

The Taliban and Drugs

By Douglas Farah

Well, for those who have argued there is no smoking gun linking the Taliban to opium production, the jig is now up. NATO forces discovered 11 tons of processed opium in a Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan, meaning the opium was at the stage where it can be converted to heroin on about a one-to-one ratio. In other words, it was almost 11 tons of heroin.

The Taliban had an ambivalent relationship with the poppy trade during its reign of terror in Afghanistan, and now appears to have done away with any pretense of not engaging in the lucrative trade.

This explains in large part, as I have written about over the past year, why the Taliban and the Arab/foreign fighters allied with them, have greatly increased their firepower and tactical and communications capabilities.

This is only the latest sign of the merging pipelines and blurring of the distinctions with terrorists and transnational criminal organizations. The great equalizer in this is the drug trade, which offers relatively easy access to huge amounts of money. Few seem able to resist it, from the thugs running Burma to the Central American gangs and criminal groups that control the Central America-Mexico pipeline. My full blog is here.

No New UN Sanctions on Iran Now Despite US Concessions

By Victor Comras

Word is out that today’s last ditch efforts to come up with new Security Council sanctions measures on Iran have failed. The Political Directors of the Security Council’s Permanent Five Members ( US, UK, France, Russia, China) and Germany reportedly threw in the towel following a fruitless international conference call between them earlier today. The matter will now be referred up the line to Foreign Ministers to see if anything can be salvaged. This time round it appears that China was the principal holdout - refusing to consider additional sanctions on Iran at this time. Russia also reportedly indicated differences with the United States with regard to the severity of the sanctions measures to be considered and the timing for such sanctions.

The US had hoped that a compromise package was possible given a major recent tactical concession on our part. For a while now the US has indicated that it would not oppose the EU’s carrot and stick negotiating approach. But, our policy had been to stand apart from it. This has now apparently changed. The US seems to have agreed to sign on to a European/Russian plan to offer Iran significant economic benefits and access to nuclear fuel if Iran comes into compliance with the Security Council’s previous non proliferation resolutions. This new approach was reflected in statements made earlier this week by US representatives, including at the Security Council’s December 17 open briefing on Iran sanctions. At that meeting the US representative indicated that the US would now “join the Russian Federation and other members of the P5 + 1 in offering Iran, if it complied with Council requirements, cooperation in development of a civil nuclear power programme, with reliable access to nuclear fuel.” This is a significant change in policy given our often stated unwillingness to engage in such dealings with Iran so long as Iran continues to support international terrorism.

News reports indicate that Secretary Rice is still optimistic that the Security Council will come up with a useful Iran resolution. "We are all in agreement that the two-track strategy that we have been pursuing is the right strategy,” she said at a news conference today. What is not clear is whether the EU Council is still poised to take up the slack if the Security Council fails to act. As I, and my colleagues Matthew Levitt and Michael Jacobson have written here previously, Europe holds the real key to putting real economic and political pressure on Iran.

Access to European businesses and banks is still very crucial for Iran’s fledgling middle class. European sanctions now, if formulated adeptly could have a very significant impact on this Iran commercial class. And this commercial class is critical to holding Iranian urban unemployment figures from plummeting further. And this may well represent Iran's Achilles heel.

Turkey's Carrot & Stick Approach to the PKK - December 2007

By Frank Hyland

Turkey's Carrot & Stick Approach to the PKK - December 2007

After months of warnings, reconnaissance flights, cross-border artillery barrages, and forays by smaller numbers of ground troops, Turkey's air forces carried out a bombing attack on the headquarters of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) early on December 16th. The raid represents the "stick" side of the two-pronged Turkish policy effort mounted in recent weeks, an effort that holds the promise of success after several years of enduring PKK attacks that have had mounting success.
Underscoring the coordinated nature of the effort, the "carrot" side of the policy - Turkey's Repentance Law - was reiterated little more than a day earlier by the Speaker of Turkey's Parliament. Article 221 of the Turkish Penal Code, also known as "return home law," offers PKK members the possibility of returning to their villages in Turkey rather than continuing to take up arms for the PKK.
The outlines of the policy and several coincident events should leave the PKK with no doubt that its ongoing attacks on Turkey and Turkish troops, which had been demonstrating greater success with the increased use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) this year, will see their efforts diminish in coming years.

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NEFA Foundation: "The Secrets of History: Zarqawi As I Knew Him"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated the first three episodes from a new series published by Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq", titled "The Secrets of History: Zarqawi As I Knew Him." Written by a member of Al-Qaida's Shariah Committee in Iraq, the series offers an intimate perspective into the mind of the late Al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his interactions with various lieutenants. A copy of the translation can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website, care of the TerrorWatch subscription service. Some highlights include:

- “Before my arrival in Iraq, there was an incident that happened that Shaykh Abu Musab and others related to me later. It was the story about a foreign reporter seeking to conduct an interview between the two Fallujah battles [i.e. mid-2004] and we were fortunate to have Abu Anas [al-Shami] present. Abu Anas spoke English well and, during the interview, he made an accidental slip of the tongue and mentioned the presence of foreign Arab fighters in Iraq. Afterwards, the commander of Fallujah saw Abu Anas sitting outside on the street with his head in his hands, embarrassed and ashamed… When Abu Musab found out what had happened, he sent Abu Anas to one of the houses and ordered him to stay there, making sure his daily needs were met by two brothers assigned to stay with him. Eventually, when the stay of Abu Anas grew longer than he had expected… he wrote an appeal to Shaykh Abu Musab, reassuring him that he remained loyal to [Zarqawi]—using the words, ‘I am a ring on your finger.’ …As a result, Abu Musab softened and allowed Abu Anas to leave the house…”

- "...By Allah, how the media lies and how the corrupt infidel American Army lies as well. What a difference between the two sides: the mujahideen and the crusaders. The Shaykh Abu Musab once strongly objected to publishing a statement containing more than the actual number of enemy casualties, and he explained, ‘the Muslims are watching us, and are waiting to see what we do, so we should not betray their trust by fabricating casualty counts as the enemy does...’”

- "In its stupidity, America tried to recruit one of [Zarqawi's] followers [who they were holding prisoner] to conspire to assassinate him using advanced technology. He agreed in order so that they would release him, and following his liberation, he told everything to the Shaykh [Zarqawi]. Praise be to Allah that American generals think in this silly way. They think that we fight for money and prestige—and what they do not understand is that our arteries are filled with the ideology of jihad. Even if they managed to reach Zarqawi, praise be to Allah, we have a million more Zarqawis because our Ummah is the Ummah of jihad and jihad is at the top of our religious hierarchy.”

- “Many days passed and Zarqawi was eventually killed. However, the star of his successor has risen as he has demonstrated rare abilities… and I can confirm that the last statement from… Condoleeza Rice—in which she offered some odd words of admiration for Zarqawi’s capabilities—was merely an effort to diminish and weaken the position of his successor after he caused them severe losses. They have invented a new trick: elevating the status of [Zarqawi] so that perhaps his followers will have less faith in his successor—despite the lengthy experience of his successor, his firsthand knowledge of the arts of war, and his relationship with prominent jihad leaders across the Islamic world… Even in the absence of our Shaykh al-Zarqawi, we have found someone else who can close the gap, continue on this path, and direct actions that we will benefit from, based on unique ideas and notions. [Abu Hamza al-Muhajir’s] decision to unite various groups in order to form the Islamic State of Iraq, and his pledge of allegiance to Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as the Amir al-Mumineen, are more than sufficient—even should he accomplish nothing further. And I say, if you kill Abu Hamza, then our Ummah will give birth to a new Abu Hamza and the jihad will not stop…”

The Clock Ticks: Sanction Iran Now

By Matthew Levitt

A version of this article appeared in German in today's Financial Times Deutschland under the title, "Die Uhr Tickt."

The latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities has been the subject of much analysis, most of which has been off point. The new estimate opens with the startling judgment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, which has led some to conclude sanctions are no longer necessary. They are. Indeed, the estimate's more significant conclusion is that the most likely tool to successfully alter Iran's nuclear calculus is targeted political and economic pressure, not military action.

Iran continues to produce fissile material and the ballistic missiles needed to deploy a weapon. According to IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in "only a few months" once it completes the fuel-cycle facilities it is building. The answer is to sanction Iran now, before it reaches this critical threshold.

That is exactly what the U.S. government did in October, even as new intelligence was shaping the soon-to-be-released NIE, when the Treasury and State Departments announced sweeping designations of Iranian entities and individuals involved in proliferation and terrorist activities. Though unilateral, the designations have effectively cut the affected parties off from the U.S. - and by extension the international -- financial system. European officials were pre-briefed on these designations, and were likely supportive. Indeed, the European Union is now debating whether or not to impose sanctions of its own targeting Iran. It should.

The full article is available here.

The Changing Dynamic in Latin America

By Douglas Farah

Several recent stories highlight the growing dangers faced in Latin America, where many of the once-idealistic leaders of the old Left are now making alliances of convenience to counter U.S. influence in the region.

The danger is the mixture of once-national issues with transnational threats that are beyond the control of the old Left-Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and others to a lesser degree.

These leaders may see themselves as populists addressing years of historic inequities in their homelands, but their strategic alliances are ranging dangerously far afield, into sponsors of state terrorism and the growing nexus with transnational criminal syndicates.

There is, of course, the Iranian spending spree in Latin America, highlighted, as Andy Cochran has noted. The alliance of Tehran and Caracas to build a canal through Nicaragua, at a cost of $350 million, is not not necessarily a bad thing for the region, and has been talked about for decades.

But why now, when Tehran has no trade or strategic interest in Nicaragua? Already strained financially, it is unlikely to give a costly gift to a country that is far from its sphere of influence.

However, that sphere of influence is greatly expanded if one looks at Hezbollah and its activities around the region. My full blog is here.

The European View on Iran: Fallout from the New U.S. Intelligence Estimate

By Michael Jacobson

On December 13, 2007, the Washington Institute hosted a Policy Forum on the Iran National Intelligence Estimate with officials from the three key European countries involving in shaping Iran policy. Neil Crompton, a political counselor at the British embassy in Washington, Hans-Peter Hinrichsen, a first secretary from the Germany embassy, and Nicholas Roche, a counselor at the French embassy, addressed the European perspective on the NIE. They offered their thoughts on how its publication affected -- or more accurately would not affect -- their government's policies towards Tehran.

To read a rapporteur's summary of their remarks, click on attached link.

For a rapporteur's summary of the Institute's recent event with State Department counterterrorism coordinator Dell Dailey, click here

AMIA & the NIE

By Aaron Mannes

The NIE on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has sparked an ongoing controversy about the nature of the Iranian regime and its intentions. While the Iranian regime appears to have halted their nuclear weaponization program in 2003, they continue to research ballistic missiles and, most importantly, acquire fissile material (which is the hardest part of building a nuclear weapon.) Putting aside the inherent uncertainty of any intelligence estimate, it is quite feasible that scaling back the weaponization program was a tactical move because the regime was having technical difficulties, the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are sophisticated and fragile - running thousands of them for long periods is no small technical challenge. These technical challenges are not insurmountable so the real question remains, “What is the nature of the Iranian regime?”

Iran’s sponsorship and execution of the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, should be a reminder that this is a regime that uses terrorism as tool of diplomacy.

AMIA, the communal offices of the Argentine Jewish community, was struck by a massive suicide truck bomb on July 18, 1994 - 85 were killed and over 200 injured. Iran and Hezbollah were suspected from the beginning. The Argentine investigation has had several false starts and has been mired in corruption, but in recent years has gotten on track. Last month Interpol voted overwhelmingly to issue a red letter calling for the arrest of five Iranians (along with Hezbollah’s external operations chief Imad Mughniyah) on the basis of the Argentine investigation. The publicly available report on the AMIA bombing offers tremendous insight into the Iranian regime’s modus operandi and worldview.

Below are two network graphs (for more on the graphs and my research at the University of Maryland see the end of the post). The first graph illustrates the web of interconnecting people and events that carried out the bombing. The second graph is the network linked to Mohsen Rabbani, the cultural affairs attaché at the Iranian Embassy who was the operations coordinator for the attack.

Graph of Events Linked to the AMIA Bombing

Network Graph of Mohsen Rabbani - Operations Chief for the AMIA Bombing

Click here to read the complete blog entry.

Terrorism Tidbits: Short Notes on Various Topics & Events (updated)

By Andrew Cochran

Some condensed news and notes on various topics:

1. The NEFA Foundation has released full English transcripts of the audio of Al Qaeda #2 Ayman Al-Zawahiri denouncing the Annapolis Conference and released on December 14, and of the subsequent video "interview" of him, released on December 16. I see by his claims of success in Iraq as a retort by "Al Qaeda Central" to comments (by Walid Phares here and others) that OBL's October 22 tape was an admission of deep frustration over the course of events in Iraq.

2. U.S. officials are deeply concerned about the developing triangle of Iran, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Yesterday, reporter Todd Bensman of the San Antonio Express-News posted "Iran making push into Nicaragua," his latest story describing the cooperation between the three countries. "As part of a new partnership with Nicaragua's Sandinista President Daniel Ortega, Iran and its Venezuelan allies plan to help finance a $350 million deep-water port at Monkey Point on the wild Caribbean shore, and then plow a connecting "dry canal" corridor of pipelines, rails and highways across the country to the populous Pacific Ocean. Iran recently established an embassy in Nicaragua's capital." Bensman also linked to a Nicaraguan government document showing that "Nicaragua's chief immigration minister personally authorized 21 Iranian men to enter the country, without visas that would have left a record." Bensman told me in an e-mail that "I've been running those names by every intel person I know. Even went to the MEK in Paris. Nothing back yet. I ended up just posting the names on our web site. If you know anyone who can run them and report back...." So, loyal readers, please take a look at those names.

3. A lot of "experts" are still running around talking about the "moderate" Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (see this recent Jamestown Foundation piece with that claim). They should consider MEMRI's transcript of an interview with Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leader Sheikh Muhammad Mahdi 'Akef on Al-Hiwar TV, broadcast November 30, 2007. In it, Akef reiterated that the MB is ready to send 10,000 men to Lebanon "in order to support the resistance." Let's ask: "Resistance" to what? The Israeli Army isn't in Lebanon - it left in 2000. The U.S. has no troops in Lebanon. So is Akef promising to deliver the Lebanese from Hezbollah and Syrian oppression?

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Congress Delays Administration's Detente with Libya

By David Schenker

Yesterday I had an op ed in the Christian Science Monitor about the Administration's problems in moving ahead with the rehabilitation of relations with Libya. Intitially, Congress did not allocate the $108 million requested by the Administration to fund a new US Embassy in Libya. Furthermore, Congress said it would not hold confirmation hearings for the Administration's ambassador designate.

Congress refused to provide funding because Libya has not paid out the last $2 million per family as stipulated in the Lockerbie settlement. Financial closure on the LaBelle Disco bombing terrorism case has proved elusive as well. In September 2006, Representatives of the LaBelle victims, the Government of Libya, and the US State Department met and hammered out a settlement that was filed in US courts. Inexplicably, though, Libya also subsequently reneged on this agreement--on June 30, 2006--the day the Administration removed Libya from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.

Yesterday, though, the House acceded to the Administration's request to fund the US Embassy. However, Congress did say that it will not allow the Administration to provide any financial aid to or run any programs in Libya.

The text of yesterday's Conference Report (SEC. 654) reads as follows: (a) None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available by this Act shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance for Libya. (b) The prohibition of subsection (a) shall no longer apply if the Secretary of State certifies to the Committees on Appropriations that the Government of Libya has made the final settlement payments to the Pan Am 103 victims' families, paid to the LaBelle Disco bombing victims the agreed upon settlement amounts, and is engaging in good faith settlement discussions regarding other relevant terrorism cases. (c) Not later than 180 days after enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall submit a report to the Committees on Appropriations describing (1) actions taken by the Department of State to facilitate a resolution of these cases; and (2) United States commercial activities in Libya's energy sector.

Essentially, Congress will prohibit State Department from administering $1.15 million in programs in Libya next year. Congressional staffers suggest that Congress will for the time being also continue to oppose confirmation of an ambassador.

On January 3rd by the Libyan foreign minister will visit Washington.

A Spook's Slippery Tale of Waterboarding Al Qaeda

By James Gordon Meek

Last week, the debate over waterboarding terrorists took a slippery turn when an obscure ex-CIA officer named John Kiriakou went public to disclose that the interrogation technique many consider torture was used to allegedly break the first Al Qaeda lieutenant nabbed after 9/11. Kiriakou’s remarkable media blitz began on network evening news broadcasts on Dec. 10 and continued the next day on morning shows and cable nets as he recounted how Al Qaeda associate Abu Zubaydah was broken within 30 seconds of being waterboarded after his 2002 capture in Pakistan.

But Kiriakou’s outpouring of details about one of the most highly classified programs in the U.S. government - possibly intended to nail a book deal - may get him into hot water. Informed sources flatly denied the accuracy of one news report that CIA and Justice Department officials last week decided against investigating Kiriakou for the unauthorized disclosure of classified information.

The publicity generated by the ex-operative, who a CNN anchor called the “man of the hour,” may have been intended to drum up interest in a book manuscript by Kiriakou awaiting clearance by the CIA’s publications review board, several sources told the New York Daily News' Mouth of the Potomac Blog.

The 14-year CIA veteran said he questioned Zubaydah in Arabic in his hospital bed, where the terrorist recovered after getting shot when he was captured. He also has said he refused to participate in waterboarding Zubaydah.

But we've learned that Kiriakou wasn’t involved in Zubaydah’s actual interrogation - or was even nearby when he got waterboarded - though he legitimately claims he participated in nabbing the Al Qaeda facilitator. CIA leaders are indeed furious that one of their own went public for the first time to discuss Zubaydah’s grilling, and a criminal referral by the agency to the Justice Department - similar to the one that ultimately led to Scooter Libby’s prosecution in the Valerie Plame leak case - is definitely not off the table, sources said.

A woman who answered the phone at a number in Virginia listed for Kiriakou and his wife told me the retired spy will not talk to reporters anymore. “He’s taking a pause from talking to the press right now,” she said.

Credibly Prosecuting Terror Finance

By Matthew Levitt

In closing arguments contesting the federal prosecution of the Holy Land Foundation and five of its former officials, a defense attorney representing Holy Land CEO Shukri Abu Baker argued that the government's prosecution was inherently deceptive and based on selective evidence. "Do you really trust the government?" the defense attorney asked the jury. Given the outcome of the trial, it's a question that warrants consideration.

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Jihadinets

By Roderick Jones

This piece was co-authored with Michael Schrage who is senior advisor to the MIT Security Studies program and a Sloan School adjunct lecturer.

Terrorists are early adopters of new technologies - especially if they're cheap and easy to acquire. Al-Qaeda's global embrace of the Internet was no surprise. The virtual world of jihadi chat rooms, online recruitment and networked proliferation of deadly terrorist techniques has entered the public consciousness. No serious security observer now doubts that radical Islamist groups are adept at exploiting online environments. Therefore, the most visible recent advances in the realm of online collaboration -virtual worlds and social networking sites - will likely be adapted for use by extremists. The benefits these platforms provide for military training and operational command & control sharing are clear. The inevitable adoption of these systems by extremists will likely mirror past online developments: quiet experimentation across a number of platforms and mainstream systems, followed by the creation of password-protected digital enclaves that incubate future destruction.

The real-world Afghanistan may be gone as a terrorist training safe-haven but creating virtual Afghanistans is literally and figuratively child's play. From the Provisional IRA to al-Qaeda terrorists have traditionally relied on pliant host governments to conduct their necessary face-to-face training. That may no longer be necessary. Geographically dispersed terrorist groups could easily come together to learn the complex technical tradecraft of terror, such as bomb making - but within a virtual environment. Training camps have also traditionally played a significant role in terrorist movements, by indoctrinating recruits into their new cause. This essential discourse will be replicated, virtually across voice-enabled worlds. Systems such as the virtual world Second Life are unlikely to be used in this way, as potential jihadis will seek to operate behind private protected systems. However, password protected environments do become compromised over time as the monitoring of jihadi forums by the SITE Institute clearly shows. Unfortunately, terror has a dangerously clever and elusive option. A practical and shockingly accessible pathway to this future exists today. The same criminal gangs that use 'malware' and ‘spybots’ that secretly ‘recruit’ tens of thousands of unsuspecting home PCs and laptops into digital ‘zombies’ will ultimately become subcontractors to terror. Untraceably cheap and disposable 'just-in-time' virtual worlds that fuse the benefits of virtual worlds like Second Life with the criminal effectiveness of zombie botnets are inevitable. They will be where tomorrow's bin Ladens educate, train and coordinate their aspiring killers.

Botnet originator’s can control their zombie groups remotely and use it to launch Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, to great effect, as was recently seen in Estonia. The suspicion remains that botnet time was rented to attack Estonia from Russian trans-national criminal syndicates and when this time ran-out the attacks fell-off. Since January 2007 numerous computers have been infected by a virus known as, Storm Worm, giving the criminal syndicates controlling the virus and hence the computers, processing power estimated beyond the power of the worlds top ten supercomputers. There is clearly an argument for using these botnet systems for more than just spam. It is not yet true to say that the next conflict will be fought virtually on computers alone but it may be rehearsed there.

Combining, fusing and blending virtual worlds and botnets for the purpose of extremist planning would solve many of the terrorist’s problems involved with using the public Internet. A virtual world that only existed for 72 hours on a botnet system would be impossible to trace. Users could come together discreetly and learn specific skills in virtual worlds constructed for that purpose. The barriers to creating such a world are being constantly reduced as companies are beginning to provide the tools for creating DIY worlds. Virtual worlds require a relatively small software interface, which sits over a number of dispersed servers that host the world. Botnets could act as temporary servers and software could be written to create a small 3-D environment geared towards training terrorists in specific skills. Botnet systems would be rented, exploited and utilized to host a virtual world where terrorists would rehearse their real world performances. For the moment, botnets are best-of-breed platforms for Just-in Time Jihadinets.

How can traditional counter-intelligence operations deter or undermine this emerging threat? They can't. Not unlike Iraqi IEDs, these innovative technologies require new doctrines, new training and new tactics to cope. Would the rise of jihadidworlds make 'humint' the more important counterintelligence investment? Or do novel forms of digital surveillance and subterfuge become more valuable? Should network penetrators be close and intimate? Or is their work best done from a (virtual) distance? Should these worlds be continually hunted down and disrupted? Or should they become vehicles for more targeted intelligence gathering? The answers to those questions depend in large part whether policymakers believe that a (virtual) world war is being waged or if these are merely criminal activities that pose little national - or international - security threats. But if the physical past can service as a digital prologue to the future, it's clear that allowing terrorist training infrastructures to take root in either nation-states or virtual worlds invites lethal violence. Safe havens for 'terror capital' online are every bit as much a threat as safe havens in Afghanistan, Iran or North Korea. Policymakers who take the safety and security of their citizens seriously must invest in both the capacity and capability to deny aspiring terrorists this medium for mayhem.

A Bad Weekend for Law Enforcement

By Douglas Farah

Well, it was a bad weekend for law enforcement officials on several continents, and a good one for the _jihadists_ and their support network. Thanks to Josh Lefkowitz of the NEFA Foundation for flagging these items.

These cases illustrate key advantages the Islamist groups have over those operating in a state-centric legal framework. The laws simply cannot, and have not, kept up with the changing realities of the world in which we live. Our legal systems, here and abroad, are extremely slow in defining new threats as crimes and providing a legal framework in which to prosecute and punish them.

This is, of course, a great strength of democratic systems-there has to be a consensus before certain types of behavior are criminalized. But the flip side is that we get dangerous ruling while the overall process is sorted out.

The other advantage is in the sphere of religious sympathy and/or corruption that allow laws to be bent beyond recognition.

Of course, corruption is not limited to Pakistan and elsewhere "out there." There have been many cases in this country where money louder than the law or one's conscience.

The most egregious case is the escape of Rashid Rauf from Pakistani police custody. Rauf is a British-Pakistani suspected of being a leading figure in the plot dismantled in London in August 2006, designed to blow up several transatlantic flights.

Rauf, who had fled to Pakistan, was due to be extradicted back to the UK in a few weeks to stand trial for murder, as well as investigations for terrorist activities. My full blog is here.

Guilty Pleas in Kevin James Case

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

On December 13, I noted that allegations that members of the Fort Dix terror plot were attempting to radicalize other inmates placed a small spotlight on the problem of prisoner radicalization. There was another development in this regard on Friday, as Kevin James and Levar Washington -- who were accused of hatching a plot to attack military sites, synagogues and other targets from a California prison cell -- pleaded guilty to conspiring to levy war against the United States:

Kevin James, 31, and Levar Haley Washington, 28, both pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy charges. Washington also pleaded guilty to using a firearm to further that conspiracy. Authorities say James, Washington and two others were part of a California prison gang cell of radical Muslims planning attacks in the Los Angeles area. "Homegrown terrorism remains a grave concern to the security of our country, and this cell was closer to going operational at the time than anyone since 9/11," Los Angeles Deputy Police Chief Michael Downing told reporters at a news conference after the two men entered their pleas.

According to prosecutors, James -- who organized the plot through a prison-based organization he led, Jamiyyat Ul-Islam Is-Saheeh (JIS) -- had even prepared a press release to accompany the planned attacks: "This incident is the first in a series of incidents to come in a plight to defend and propagate traditional Islam in its purity. We are not extremists, radicals or terrorists. We are only servants of Allah."

I will again emphasize the need to fight smarter in the global war on terror. Prison personnel should be better trained to screen extremist literature entering the facilities, and to recognize signs of radicalization among inmates. The JIS plot was unraveled only after authorities caught a lucky break: the plot was to be financed by gas station robberies, and the perpetrator of one of the robberies happened to drop his cell phone. The plot was not uncovered through specific investigation of JIS, even though authorities were previously aware of the group. In September 2006 testimony before the Senate's Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Donald Van Duyn, the deputy assistant director of the FBI's counterterrorism division, stated that JIS "was being treated mainly as a prison gang prior to the arrest for the robberies. It was on the discoveries emanating from the arrest after the robberies that then led people to the plot. That was the first knowledge of the plot per se."

It is also worth noting that this plot was entirely "homegrown" -- that is, there was no known connection to international terrorist networks. Though the L.A. Times claims that experts said that the JIS plot "represented one of the most realistic terrorism threats on U.S. soil since Sept. 11," my sources suggest that competence was an issue for this cell. This is not to say that individual cells of homegrown terrorists are not dangerous -- they are -- but central terror networks can magnify the lethality of cells by pairing skill sets, financing, and operatives, and providing training. It is international networks that can transform these cells into cohesive adversaries capable of threatening Western societies. As my colleague Doug Farah recently observed, al-Qaeda 1.0 still matters.

Syrian and Iranian Axis Terrorize their opposition

By Walid Phares

While Petrodollars Propaganda showers networks in North America, the Middle East and Europe in order to weaken the resolve of democracies to confront the Iranian and Syrian regimes; and while "lobbies" in the West accelerate their campaigns to break the isolation of Damascus and Tehran; these two regimes confronted their oppositions in several attempts to crush them as long as the "window of opportunity is open", according to insiders.

The Khamenei and Assad regimes, relying on the Baker-Hamilton report which caused confusion throughout the West, took advantage of the findings of the NIE and rushed to clamp down on what they consider the real dangers emerging from the inside their countries. While the Iranian propaganda machine uses oil-generated revenues to place favorable stories in the international media to impact think tanks around the world, Syrian Mukhabarat and Pasdaran operated swiftly over the past few days to shut down dissident groups and youth activities deemed "dangerous". Read: getting too close to provoke political changes.

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Ansar al-Sunnah Acknowledges Relationship with Ansar al-Islam, Reverts to Using Ansar al-Islam Name

By Evan Kohlmann

In recent days, the leader of the Ansar al-Sunnah Army (JAAS)--Commander Abu Abdullah al-Shafi--has issued a fairly remarkable communique that has received little public attention. Ansar al-Sunnah is one of Iraq's most prominent insurgent groups, and has worked more closely with Al-Qaida than any other such organization. For the first time, al-Shafi publicly acknowledged that Ansar al-Sunnah is just another name for Ansar al-Islam, the Kurdish Islamic movement formerly headed by Mullah Krekar. According to al-Shafi:

“Ansar al-Islam was the second-most important target for the American military forces [which invaded Iraq]... On [March 21, 2003], our group engaged in military battles against the American army and its supporters. After a period of fighting back against the American assault, the leadership of Ansar al-Islam decided to withdraw. As a result, the American army and the apostates took control of the area. Shortly thereafter, Allah enabled us to rearrange our movement and we returned in Iraq under the new name of Ansar al-Sunnah. Due to certain realities on the battlefield, we had to expand our operations, while modifying our tactics, in order to confront the American enemy and its supporters... Indeed, with the help of Allah, the mujahideen succeeded in many of the clashes, battles, ambushes, strikes, and suicide attacks. They were also pioneers in using improvised explosive devices (IEDs)... Given our responsibility in maintaining the principles of Islam, the unity of Muslims, and to deal with existential issues that shall determine our survival, we have decided to continue our work under the name of the Ansar al-Islam organization. This name shall be the official name used in all future communiqués and statements…”

An English translation of the communique can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website care of the TerrorWatch subscription service. For more information on the Ansar al-Sunnah Army, see State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq: August 2007.

Newest Al-Zawahiri Tape Includes Footage of Evan Kohlmann

By Andrew Cochran

Today as-Sahab, the media arm of Al Qaeda, posted a 98-minute video with an interview with Al-Qaeda's #2, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, titled “A Review of Events.” Al-Zawahiri speaks about the United States, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestinian territories and Egypt, in response to "questions" asked of him by the interviewer. SITE Institute reports that scenes switch between Zawahiri and footage taken from other sources, including individuals such as Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, terrorists from Iraq, and a look at the 9/11 Commission Report. I understand that one piece of footage from another source is that of Evan Kohlmann talking about terrorism on the internet, taken from a BBC documentary. A dubious honor for Evan and CT Blog, indeed.

Lessons of Algiers, December 11, 2007 -- Again

By Frank Hyland

I really dislike writing this piece, but apparently it is still necessary. I and thousands of others have written “it” thousands of times before over the years. There must be some magic number of times that, once reached, obviates the need for any further repetition. It appears, though, that the number hasn’t yet been reached, the lesson has not yet been learned. Without any further ado, then……………….

Dear Secretary General:

I write to offer my condolences to you and to your staffers worldwide in the aftermath of the 11 December bombing of your offices in Algiers that killed ten of their colleagues. As others have expressed as well, this was a cowardly act carried out by subhuman perpetrators with absolutely no sense of decency. In that this attack follows on the bombing of the UN Headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003, with the loss of the lives of 22 brave UN staffers, I should also note that my sorrow is tempered by anger. There are lessons being “taught” by the terrorists, but the audience also plays a crucial role - it absolutely must remain awake and be responsive. Others have learned these lessons; now it is the UN’s turn.
Lesson Number One: This may seem at first glance to be obvious or that I cite it in jest, but terrorists strike where, when, and how they are able to strike. That is, your facilities continue to fall into the category of “soft” targets as opposed to those that have been hardened - by being distant enough from the nearby roadway, by appropriate construction materials, by physical barriers, by armed security personnel.
Lesson Number Two: The term “UN Security” must be more than an oxymoron. Candlelight prayer vigils, public statements decrying attacks are all comforting, but insufficient in the prevention of further attacks. In fact, they are a “magnet,” in that the accompanying media coverage calls attention to the lack of security at your facilities. The protection of UN staffers must be the highest priority, far and away, of the United Nations. It cannot be in competition for time, money, and attention with, for example, the pursuit of a pact on global warming. Those killed in Baghdad and in Algiers will never feel that warmth because of the lack of an adequate UN physical security program.

Sincerely,

Frank Hyland

No Limits

By Roderick Jones

The thoughtful private Intelligence company Stratfor just released a piece suggesting what it thinks are the limits to jihadi terrorists being able to conduct their terrorist planning and training online: The Role and Limitations of the ‘Dark Web’ In jihadist Training. Stratfor acknowledges that the Internet has been an enabler for terrorism but it doubts that the required tradecraft of terrorist operations can be taught online. Where Stratfor makes an error in this article is in not taking account of the enhanced capabilities of 3-D virtual worlds to assist the next generation of jihadi terrorists. The educational abilities of virtual worlds have been well-documented and as Stratfor points out bomb-making is best learnt from an expert. With the abilities available within virtual worlds there is no reason why this knowledge cannot be passed from teacher to pupil within a persistent 3-D environment. The real-time communication systems incorporating VoIP and the ability to produce sophisticated, ‘working’ 3-D models makes training in the engineering of terrorist technique a current reality.

But Stratfor, on this occasion, also makes the wider mistake of looking at the Internet as it is today, when the Internet always exists in the future. Therefore, while Stratfor rightly points to the limitations of Google Earth as a terrorist reconnaissance tool it fails to account for the Internet of tomorrow where target locations can be re-created in virtual worlds and attacks can be planned and practiced. It isn’t just virtual worlds but other applications that are making use of the explosion of data available to the ordinary user in order to create sophisticated digital tools, which will in time supplant Google Earth as the terrorist tool of choice. New software from Microsoft’s research lab entitled, Photosynth meshes with online photo sharing sites to deliver highly intricate 3-D models of real-world buildings and environments. Terrorists are understandably interested in any application that enhances their reconnaissance capability without exposing them to risk and photosynth fits that category. Conducting pre-attack surveillance is often when terrorist cells are at their most vulnerable - digital tools can reduce these vulnerabilities.

Technology companies are developing enhanced representations of the real world almost daily and these can clearly be corrupted for extremist use. Jihadi digital natives will increase the sophistication of their platforms to further enhance their potency - the limitations Stratfor correctly identifies will rapidly fall away.

Summary of Special Panel on Holy Land's Ties to Hamas & Muslim Brotherhood

By Andrew Cochran

On Tuesday, December 11, the Counterterrorism Foundation, along with the NEFA Foundation and International Assessment and Strategy Center, conducted a special panel, "Infiltration and Deception: The Holy Land Foundation and the Muslim Brotherhood in America," in the halls of Congress before a packed room of experts, law enforcement and intelligence community personnel, Congressional staff, and industry leaders. Here is the written version of my introduction of the co-sponsors and the panel. The audio of the discussion and Q&A is available for download here.

I moderated as Douglas Farah (NEFA), Michael Fechter (IPT), and Jeffrey Breinholt (IASC) discussed the Holy Land Foundation's ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the long-term goals of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Muslim American leaders who have worked for decades towards those goals, and the legal context for the trial and other terrorism-related trials in the U.S. Douglas Farah discussed the history and objectives of the Brotherhood in the U.S (see this NEFA Foundation study). He also discussed the special 1993 meeting in Philadelphia of the U.S. Palestinian Committee (see this NEFA Foundation study), at which the participants plotted long-term strategy to turn the U.S. into a safe place for the Movement, and the role of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in HLF and the Brotherhood. Michael Fechter discussed the pivotal roles of Mousa Abu Marzook, current Hamas deputy political director; Abdelrahman Alamoudi, now in jail for terrorism-related offenses; and Sami Al-Arian, also jailed for such offenses, in the formation of the Brotherhood network in the U.S., leading to the formation of HLF. You can read a written version of his comments here. Jeffrey Breinholt discussed the numerous successes in terrorism-related trials in the U.S., including two previous trials involving HLF members, and the implications of defeat. I already posted his perspective on the numerous successful federal terrorism-related prosecutions. Many of the points made at the panel had been already posted here by numerous Contributing Experts, including Matthew Levitt, who testified at the trial, but the key facts and relatioships revealed through the case deserve repeating.

Here are key quotes from the other presentations distributed at the panel and linked above:

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CT Blog Algeria Press Conference on Thursday, December 20

By Andrew Cochran

Walid Phares, Olivier Guitta, and I will hold a public press conference on the December 11 Algeria bombings and the implications for Europe and elsewhere. The press conference will be on Thursday, December 20, at 2 pm ET at room 2200 in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington. Olivier has been among the most prolific and acute experts on the development of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, posting almost two years ago on the then-desired merger of GSPC and Al Qaeda. You can read his posts about Algeria on his archive page. Walid posted immediately after the bombings and will place the activities of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in the context of the ongoing jihadists' war against the West. I will summarize other CT Blog posts by Evan Kohlmann (see his latest), Douglas Farah (see today's post), and others, as well as counter-terrorist financing efforts aimed at AQIM. Members of Congress might participate, depending on their availabililty.

Why al Qaeda 1.0 Still Matters

By Douglas Farah

The Dec. 11 attack in Algiers by Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb shows that the old guard of al Qaeda, what some analysts call al Qaeda 1.0 (rather than the new, decentralized structure) still matters.

As Craig Whitlock noted in the Washington Post, the group (formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat-GSPC) has markedly improved is capabilities since formally allying with al Qaeda 14 months ago.

What is striking, as noted by my colleague Evan Kohlmann in that piece and elsewhere, is the quantum leap in the propaganda capabilities of AQIM, the ability to film the attack and rapidly make high-quality video available on the Internet.

The simultaneous rising sophistication of AQIM, particularly its "media" wing, and the formal alliance with al Qaeda central strike me as more than a passing coincidence.

It is increasingly clear that the old guard, operating from Pakistan and the border region with Afghanistan, has regrouped and is in more direct communication with its affiliates than it was 6 months ago. My full blog is here.

Perspectives on Criminal and Terrorist Money Laundering

By Dennis Lormel

When developing, implementing or modifying Anti-Money Laundering (AML) strategies, it is important to understand who and what you are dealing with. Who is the enemy and what is the threat they pose? In the post 9/11 world, this is an increasingly vexing question. With that context in mind, the enemy can be characterized in two broad categories, criminals and terrorists. Criminals are motivated by greed, in the form of profit and/or power, and represent a threat to the economy. Terrorists are motivated by ideology and present a threat to National Security.

The one most important commonality between criminal organizations and terrorist groups is that money laundering is an essential operating tool. For criminal organizations and terrorist groups to succeed, they must possess the means to launder funds. Why is this important and why should it matter to financial institutions and non-financial institution businesses alike? It’s critically important because financial institutions and many businesses are susceptible to money launderers. Money laundering transcends geographic boundaries and business lines. Wherever criminals and terrorists can exploit systemic and institutional vulnerabilities they will. By establishing viable anti-money laundering programs and strategies, financial institutions and non-financial institutions help to diminish threats to the economy and National Security.

It is important to understand the differences and contrasts between criminal and terrorist interests in money laundering. The most fundamental and essential difference is that criminals launder money for profit. Laundering for terrorist financing is based on ideology. The profit vs. ideology factor is very significant when it comes to developing investigative and detective methodologies. In general, it’s easier to identify and disrupt criminal money laundering operations because you can exploit the greed factor. It’s more challenging and difficult to exploit terrorist money laundering operations because generally, there is no greed factor to exploit. The functional mechanics of terrorist financing are multi-dimensional and less recognizable than the functionality of criminal money laundering. Criminal money laundering is more one dimensional and identifiable. In addition, terrorists are usually more adept at avoiding detection.

Other differences to be mindful of include the fact that terrorists will launder funds siphoned from charities, contributed by wealthy donors or from State sponsors of terrorism. These funds were not derived directly from criminal activity but were seemingly clean funds which were intended to support terrorist activities. In addition to relying on traditional banks, terrorists will launder money through Islamic charities and Islamic banks. Terrorists also favor informal financial systems to launder funds, more so than criminal elements. Criminal money launderers usually deal in more significant transactional amounts of currency, whereas terrorist transactional amounts offer a contrast. For fundraising, terrorist funding flows will be both significant and nominal. For operational purposes terrorist funding flows will be more nominal.

There are many similarities between money laundering for criminal purposes and money laundering for the finance of terrorism. For instance, both criminal and terrorist elements will use mechanisms to include money exchange firms, front companies, shell companies, cash shipments, hawalas, commercial banks and criminal activities. There are other similarities in how funds are derived and moved by criminals and terrorists.

An important evolving trend is that criminal organizations and terrorist groups are learning from each other. In so doing, they are perfecting their illicit skills. Terrorist groups, in particular, are learning organizations. They consistently adapt to better exploit systemic vulnerabilities.

One of the most important distinctions between criminal and terrorist money laundering is the circular versus linear flow of funds. Criminal money laundering is a circular process. The person(s) and/or entities responsible for placing the funds are the ultimate beneficiaries after the assets flow through the layering and integration phases. Terrorist financing is linear. The individuals placing the funds are typically not the beneficiaries. The funds flow in a linear fashion to other individuals. The beneficiaries use the proceeds in furtherance of terrorist activity.

Although financial activity that supports terrorism is often simplistic, terrorist financing presents a myriad of complex challenges. By its nature, in most applications, the movement of funds to support terrorism is through legal and undetectable means. We should be mindful that terrorist financing encompasses a wide variety of activities. This is a factor that makes detecting terrorist financing more difficult than detecting criminal money laundering. Terrorist financing consists of fundraising mechanisms, operational and administrative support mechanisms, and other considerations, which require use of the formal and informal financial systems. This variance is exacerbated by the range of positions and responsibilities individual terrorists and terrorist supporters assume to include leaders, fundraisers, financiers, facilitators, operatives and suicide bombers. Financial requirements and flows for the full gamut of terrorists and terrorist supporters vary according to factors to include their role, location and affiliations.

Government agencies and financial institutions must identify and assess warning signs within their jurisdictions and areas of operation by understanding money laundering, terrorist and terrorist financing risk factors, systemic vulnerabilities, and institutional vulnerabilities. Companies should develop risk/vulnerability matrices and identify countermeasures and control mechanisms to mitigate risks and vulnerabilities.

By understanding and identifying areas of risk and vulnerability to criminal and terrorist money laundering, we can implement procedures to strengthen internal controls and minimize risk. In so doing, we are positioned to deal with criminal and terrorist threats and better safeguard the economy and National Security.

Al-Qaeda's Zawahiri Denounces Annapolis Conference

By Jeffrey Imm

Al-Qaeda's number 2, Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, was reported to have released an audio message to Jihadist web sites denouncing the Annapolis Conference. This has been reported by Reuters, AP, SITE Institute, and Laura Mansfield.

In addition, Laura Mansfield is reporting that Jihadist web sites state that a second message will also be coming out, described as an interview with Zawahiri. SITE Institute has also issued a press release stating that this Zawahiri interview will be released as a second message.

SITE Institute reports that this Zawahiri audio message is 20 minutes long and is entitled "Annapolis - The Treason"; it was published by Al-Qaeda's media arm, As-Sahab. SITE further reports that Zawahiri called the conference a "betrayal" and was another instance of a "Zionist-Crusade" against Palestine, criticizing Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and all other conference attendees, stating that the Mujahideen will not abandon Palestine as an Islamic land, calling for Jihad to liberate Jerusalem, and calling on Palestinians to support Jihad and an Islamic Caliphate.

AP reports that the Zawahiri message included statements:
"The Annapolis meeting was held to turn Palestine into a Jewish state. " "The czar of Washington invited 16 Arab countries ... to sit in one room, at one table with the Israelis." AP also reports that the Zawahiri stated that the conference "witnessed the betrayal deals to sell Palestine."

Reuters reports that Zawahiri states in the message that:
"The Arab states and governments were present as false witnesses to the latest of the treacherous deals to sell Palestine". "Our Muslim brothers in Palestine, unite under the banner of Islam and on the road of God's jihad and reject these secular organizations that sold you out in Madrid and Oslo, in Camp David and Wye River, in Sharm al-Sheikh and Annapolis." "Our Muslim nation, this is a new conspiracy against Palestine and the abode of Islam, so stand with your brothers in Palestine ... and do not leave them alone in face of ... the compromising rulers and Crusader-Zionist aggression."

SITE Institute also reports that the Zawahiri message also condemned previous peace conferences on Palestine/Israel issues, and asked why the "Mufti of Saudi Arabia" did nothing about these. Moreover, SITE reports that Zawahiri calls for the Egyptian army not to support Palestinians being forced into Gaza area between Egypt and Israel. Regarding Algeria, SITE reports that Zawahiri addresses the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, without referencing Tuesday's bombings, and informs those Algerian representatives to the Annapolis conference that they are betraying Palestinians.

Laura Mansfield reported the release of the Zawahiri audio message and is working on a full translation of it. In addition, she reported that Jihadist web sites are stating that there will be a second message which will be an interview with Zawahiri.

Sources:

December 14, 2007 - Reuters: Zawahri calls Annapolis meeting a sell-out

December 14, 2007 - AP: Al-Qaida No. 2 blasts peace conference

December 14, 2007: SITE Institute: "Annapolis - The Treason" - An Audio Speech from Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri from As-Sahab Media

December 14, 2007 - Laura Mansfield: New message from Al Qaeda second-in-command Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri discusses the Annapolis conference

CIA Soldiers On Amid Al Qaeda Tape-Shred Scandal

By James Gordon Meek

CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden was on the congressional hotseat this week answering for agency operatives who shredded Al Qaeda interrogation videos. The tapes, which depicted Abu Zubaydah and others being waterboarded and questioned, were made from 2002-2003 and destroyed in 2005, a year before Hayden took over at Langley. As one frustrated U.S. official told the Mouth of the Potomac Blog, “He just gets to clean this up.”

But you don’t get to be a four-star Air Force general without political chops, particularly if - like Hayden - you don’t have pilot’s wings on your blue uniform. Proof of Hayden’s steely temperament under hostile political fire was on display after the flap erupted, when the grinning spy chief joked to an associate that U.S. government dignitaries had been phoning to thank him for taking the disputed Iran National Intelligence Estimate off newspapers’ front pages.

After first telling his troops last week that Congress knew about the tapes and plans to destroy them, he had to perform an about-face Wednesday when Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) chewed him out in a closed hearing for not telling the House Intelligence Committee that the tapes were tossed. Hayden emerged from the three-hour grilling Wednesday and admitted, “We could have done an awful lot better at keeping the committee alerted and informed.”

Yet Hayden’s defense of the CIA and his bullet-proof demeanor evidently have won him the admiration of rank and file spooks, who lined up by the hundreds Tuesday morning - a few hours before a Senate hearing on the tapes scandal - to express their support at a Langley holiday party, according to one of my sources, who was there. Hayden shook “more than 1,000 hands, getting hugs and posing for pictures with CIA employees. Lots of employees wished him the best and said they were pulling for him.”

Members of Fort Dix Plot Accused of Trying to Radicalize Other Inmates

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

This week, federal authorities accused at least two of the men allegedly involved in a plot to attack soldiers at the Fort Dix army base of attempting to radicalize other inmates. The suspects in the Fort Dix plot have filed a request to be granted bail, and in a responsive filing the U.S. Attorney's Office alleged two specific incidents. In one, defendant Mohamad Ibrahim Shnewer allegedly gave another inmate a copy of an al-Qaeda recruitment video (the video had been part of the prosecution evidence, which the defendants were able to access; according to prosecutors, Shnewer then tried to share the video with other inmates). In the second incident, defendant Eljvir Duka sent a note to another prisoner stating: "Now you see why we were going to sacrifice all for the sake of Allah in jihad. Fight in the way of Allah first with the mouth then with the sword."

If true, the prosecutors' allegations are unsurprising. While the Fort Dix gang are regarded as wannabes by the intelligence community, their major problem is regarded as poor tradecraft rather than lack of ideological extremism.

But this incident places a small spotlight on a broader problem, radicalization in the prison system. As Out of the Shadows, a report issued in September 2006 by the George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute and University of Virginia Critical Incident Analysis Group, states, "Prisons have long been places where extremist ideology and calls to violence could find a willing ear, and conditions are often conducive to radicalization." There are several known instances where people who either converted to Islam or else radicalized while in prison have later been involved in terrorist violence. Richard Reid, who attempted to bring down a transatlantic flight with explosives hidden in his shoe in December 2001, is believed to have converted to Islam and also radicalized while incarcerated in Great Britain. In France, both Ruddy Terranova and Khaled Kelkal -- who were involved with Algerian terror groups -- seem to fit this model. The most prominent case in the U.S., though, is the Jam'iyyat Ul-Islam Is-Saheeh (JIS) plot in California, which is the first known terrorist plot in the U.S. hatched entirely within a prison cell.

One theme I constantly return to in writing about the global war on terror is the need to fight smarter. The prisons are no exception, as a few previous incidents (some of which I have written about, on the CT Blog and elsewhere) demonstrate:

• An alarming amount of extremist literature has made its way into the U.S. prison system.
• The 1993 World Trade Center bombers were able to write letters advocating jihad from prison, including at least 14 letters that went back and forth between them and a Spanish terror cell.
• As of summer 2005, though the federal Bureau of Prisons held 119 inmates with "specific ties" to Islamic terrorist groups, there were no full-time translators to monitor their communications.
  

Military Denies Gitmo Edited Wikipedia Bios of Castro and Camp Delta

By James Gordon Meek

Today we reported in the New York Daily News about a team of Wikileaks.org sleuths who blew the cover of U.S. military hackers who edited entries for their sister site, the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Among the edits was an addition to Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s biography, where they labeled him “an admitted transsexual.”

The Wikileaks snoops traced computer Internet Protocol numbers - digital fingerprints - for the people who made the Castro edit, as well as those who removed detainee ID numbers from the bios of several terror suspects at Guantanamo Bay’s Camp Delta and changed the phrase “invasion of Afghanistan” to the more banal “war in Afghanistan” on another page about Gitmo.

The military was asked for comment on Wednesday, but didn’t respond until this morning. In a statement, Army Lt. Col. Edward Bush insisted that no one at Joint Task Force-Guantanamo had edited any of the pages - despite the fact that Wikipedia has the hackers dead to rights as using JTF-GTMO computers.

“There has been no attempt to alter/change any information that has been posted anywhere,” Lt. Col. Bush said in the statement e-mailed to me. “That would be unethical.”

Bush said in a subsequent phone call that there’s no way to know if any of the 3,000 uniformed military at Gitmo was responsible for the documented changes, but he promised his public affairs staff was not behind it. He also blasted Wikipedia for identifying one sailor in his office by name, who has since received death threats for simply doing his job - posting positive comments on the Internet about Gitmo.

Another Terrorism Mistrial, But Overall Far More Convictions Than Acquittals

By Andrew Cochran

From the Associated Press: "One of seven Miami men accused of plotting to join forces with al-Qaida to blow up Chicago's Sears Tower was acquitted Thursday, and a mistrial was declared for the six others after the federal jury deadlocked. Federal prosecutor Richard Gregorie said the government plans to retry the six next year."

This joins other terrorism-related trials which ended with underwhelming results for the government prosecutors: Holy Land Foundation; Sami al-Arian; Benevolence International founder Enaam Arnaout; Sami al-Hussayen in Idaho; Mohamed Salah and Abdelhalim Ashqar in Chicago; and others.

Although the government failed in a number of these high-profile cases, it's important to review the entire caseload of terrorism-related prosecutions. Jeffrey Breinholt, who led prosecutors in terrorism-related cases at the Justice Department, addressed this at our panel this week on the Holy Land Foundation and the Muslim Brotherhood (which I will summarize in a separate post):

It took us three times to finally get John Gotti, and few people today argue that it was not worth it. The most recent (Holy Land Foundation) trial was actually the third HLF-related case. These cases have involved the same prosecutors, agents and paralegal - some of whom are in this room - and many of the same defendants and defense attorneys. The government won each of those first two cases, and did so handily. In this sense, if you’re keeping score, the government’s record so far in HLF-related cases is 2-0-1. Not too shabby. Consider that, despite what the media claims whenever the government suffers a set-back, or less-than-satisfying victory in a terrorist financing case - that we still win about ten times more than we lose. The number of people convicted of material support - either by jury trial or guilty plea - is over 1000 percent of those who are acquitted. Yes, those persons convicted include Sami Al-Arian. That should give pause to those you claim we need to think about some major calibration in our terrorist financing strategy.

Suicide Bombings in Algiers: A Risky Strategy for the AQIM

By Evan Kohlmann

The Christian Science Monitor has published a new article by Jill Carroll analyzing the significance of Tuesday's dramatic suicide bomb attacks in the capital of Algeria. For the benefit of CT Blog readers, I am posting my complete, unedited comments to Jill below. An English translation of the official communique from Al-Qaida's Network in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claiming responsibility for the blasts can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

----------------------------------------------------------

Up until yesterday, AQIM has been fairly quiet (at least as of late) -- no big attacks and no big casualty counts. There have been indications that its leadership was growing frustrated by accounts from the Algerian press suggesting that the AQIM was effectively on the ropes.

A twin suicide bombing attack like this has both benefits and costs for the AQIM. On the plus side, it regains media focus and it once again seems like a potent threat to stability. If they hadn't attacked foreign nationals in such a dramatic fashion, the operation probably would have been a tiny blip on the screen of global media. This is a lesson that the AQIM seems to have learned directly from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Secondly, this sort of operation appeals to a certain fringe extremist element in Algeria (and elsewhere) who want to see a major escalation in the conflict, and who are intent upon targeting Westerners. It wins the admiration of Usama Bin Laden and his acolytes.

The downside of launching an attack like this is that AQIM is risking alienating another much larger part of its constituency -- ordinary Islamist dissidents who may be opposed to the Algerian regime and its security forces, but who are disturbed by the idea of killing innocent UN workers for no apparent reason. This is similar to what has happened in Iraq recently with Al-Qaida -- AQI has managed to scare off everyone with its fanatical violence, including its own former allies among the Iraqi insurgents. In Algeria, this is even more of an issue, because you do not have an explicit foreign occupation to justify such acts, and because there is a storied local history of bitter internecine conflict among Islamic extremists over who and what are legitimate targets for jihad.

So is this the great awakening of the jihad in Algeria? I'm somewhat skeptical. What we are more likely witnessing here is a jihadi movement that is flailing about wildly in the hopes of replicating the comparative success of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq. In my opinion, it is more a sign of desperation then anything else. The AQIM is obviously not able to take the government or its allies on in a straightforward guerilla confrontation. The mystique of the Algerian Islamic resistance has always been based on the romantic idea of mysterious revolutionaries hiding in the mountains and launching courageous hit-and-run attacks on the Algerian military. That's why there have never been suicide car bombings before this year in Algeria. Instead, the AQIM has been reduced to driving cars full of explosives into civilian compounds in order to generate sensational death counts. There's just no honor in that. I suppose that doesn't make them necessarily any less dangerous -- it just means that their ultimate mission is futile.

State Department Counterterrorism Coordinator's Integrated Approach

By Michael Kraft

The State Department's relatively new Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Ambassador Dell Dailey, has outlined a broad integrated approach to countering the international terrorism threat downplaying the military role although he was an Army three-star general who headed the Special Operations Command.

In his appearance at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Ambassador Daily also called Ben Ladin a marked man who will eventually be caught.

“Incarcerating or killing terrorists will not end terrorism—it only buys us time,” he said yesterday in one of his first major Washington public speeches since being confirmed in August. As noted by Mike Jacobson in his earlier post, the full text is available on the State Department web site.

Some of the points Ambassador Dailey made have been previously heard in various forms from others, including in the academic world. But the emphasis by the retired Lieutenant General struck me as a marked contrast with the attitudes the Bush administration expressed during its early days in office when it eschewed the concept of nation-building. And it is a somewhat unusual emphasis to come from a man who spent 36 years in the Army and was considered to be legendary in the special operations circles.

In his prepared speech which he read in full, Ambassador Dailey emphasized that “our most important task in the war on terrorism is not the “destructive” task of eradicating enemy networks, but the “constructive” task of building legitimacy, good governance, trust, rule of law, and tolerance.”

Dailey said that countering terrorism requires not only arresting and incarcerating terrorism but also addressing “the underlying conditions that terrorists exploit at the national and local levels and use to induce alienated or aggrieved populations to become sympathizers, supporters, and ultimately members of terrorist networks.”

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Using All Elements of National Power

By Michael Jacobson

In a speech last month, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates argued that meeting the various challenges facing the country in the decades ahead will require the strengthening of “important elements of national power” other than military power. America, the Secretary warned, “must create the capability to integrate and apply all of the elements of national power to problems and challenges abroad.”

Ambassador Dell Dailey, the State Department's Counterterrorism Coordinator, spoke at the Washington Institute yesterday about this critical issue, laying out how the US is trying to better integrate and utilize all elements of power in combating terrorism.

A copy of Ambassador Dailey's prepared remarks are available on the State Department website.

Windows into the Jihadist Mindset

By Douglas Farah

The Middle East Media Research Institute and the NEFA Foundation offer two interesting and enlightening views into the current mindset of Islamist jihadis, particularly as it relates to the Iraq conflict.

MEMRI transcribes and interview with a person claiming to be a former leader of al Qaeda in Iraq. Several things are striking. One is the rather striking disregard for human life, and the assumption in the discussion that one human being (if of the proper Muslim stripe) can and should kill everyone else. There is no wavering on this, as seen in the response to who the Islamists are targetting:

Everybody was targeted, but the Americans took precedence."

Interviewer: "Who is 'everybody'?"

Jawhar: "Whoever fights against 'there is no god but Allah.' Is there anyone who defends the Americans any better than them? The infidels are one and the same. An infidel is an infidel - whether he is a Palestinian, a Jew, or an Argentinean. The infidels are one and the same, while an American Muslim is a Muslim. So what's the problem? What, an Iraqi who is an apostate and who helps the Americans should be treated like a VIP? He is worse than the Americans."

It is also interesting to note the claim not to hold Iraqis for ransom, which would be against Islamic law. Unfortunately, that means they are usually killed. My full blog is here.

Lebanon's officers under "axis" Terror attack?

By Walid Phares

On December 12 a top Lebanese Army commander, Brigadier General Francois Hajj, was killed in a Terrorist bombing in the suburb of Baabda southeast of Beirut. Hajj, 54, who was close to army commander Michel Sleiman and tipped to be his successor, was killed along with his bodyguard in a rush-hour blast. This was the first assassination of a high ranking officer of the Lebanese Armed Forces in decades. The first set of questions is: Why was he murdered, who may have perpetrated this terror attack and what could be the consequences of this dramatic development?

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A Committed Terrorist Discusses Syria's Role & Assistance

By Andrew Cochran

MEMRI has released a transcript of an interview with Shehada Jawhar, formerly the Al-Qaeda terrorist in charge of training in Iraq, which aired on Al-Arabiya TV on December 7, 2007. It is a bloodcurdling look into the mind of a shameless, evil murderer, and every American should read it. For me, two of the key points in the transcript deal with the role of Syria in assisting and promoting terrorism, including an attempt by official Syrian intelligence agents to support Abu Musab al-Zarqawi before U.S. forces killed him. U.S. government officials who (inexplicably) hang onto the dream of drawing Syria into a "grand bargain" for Mideast peace should keep these segments in mind. His statements appear credible in light of his obvious pride in his success in killing Americans and those Iraqis working for peace.

Jawhar described how he passed easily from Lebanon through Syria and into Iraq to join al-Zarqawi's forces, something which could not be done without acquiescence or active support from the Assad regime:

"From the Syrian border, a Syrian guy took us...The smuggler was Syrian, and he took us to some place I don't know in Damascus, and then a van came and took us to the heart of Damascus. Then one of the brothers in charge of receiving [the mujahideen] came. All this was coordinated in advance. It's not like when you go on a trip. Everything was coordinated - from here to Shtura, from Shtura to Damascus, and from Damascus to Iraq. Everything was coordinated by the brothers in charge of this stuff. They receive brothers and send them on. It's all organized. Nothing is improvised."

Jawhar also discussed the attempt of Syrian intelligence to actively assist al-Zarqawi:

"People from Syrian intelligence came, and asked to meet with Shiekh Abu Mus'ab. They said to him: 'Brother, what weapons do you need?' They wanted to help, but [Al-Zarqawi] said: 'No, we've got everything we need.' He wouldn't take anything from them, even though we were in dire need of weapons. We didn't want to take anything from the Syrians, so it wouldn't be said the next day that we cooperated with them. This was the position of Sheikh Abu Mus'ab. He was in need of every single bullet, and was offered whatever he wanted. He said: 'I'm fighting the Americans, with or without you. Why should I fight the Americans on your behalf'?"

Interviewer: "How could Syrian intelligence get to Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi? What was their purpose? What did Syrian intelligence want?"

Jawhar: "It is not in the Syrians' interest for Iraq to remain calm even for a moment. They benefit from this. The more Iraq is destroyed, the more pleased they are, because if the Americans feel comfortable in Iraq, they will move on to many other places.

Algeria's bombings: al Qaeda strike at French-Algerian rapprochement?

By Walid Phares

Here are few remarks about the bombings in Algeria today:

An Al Qaeda link?

Most experts in Algeria and the Arab world believe this terror campaign is either inspired or ordered by al Qaeda in the Maghreb. Even if the execution is perpetrated by local Jihadist groups it is part of the Salafist general offensive against Algeria's Government and an extension to the North African operations by al Qaeda Maghreb in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania and possibly later Libya. This attack in Algeria today is linked to the regional strategy of weakening the Algerian Government in general and resuming the 1990s warfare against Kufr (infdidel) institutions, society and Government. But unlike in the past decade, today's operations are strategically coordinated with al Qaeda central, not in terms of operations but policies and international decision making. However I believe that this particular attack is a response to the recent visit by French President Nicholas Sarkozy to Algeria. It is directed against the number of agreements signed by the Government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika with the Paris presidential delegation. The Jihadist incitement against the Algerian authorities, including mostly via the al jazeera shows, usually indicates the trends to come. Algiers was accused by the Salafi forces as "betraying the Muslim world and associating with French kuffar." The strikes came in line with this incitement.

Read More »

Terrorist Bombings in Algeria: Previous CT Blog Posts on Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (updated Dec. 12 with link to transcript)

By Andrew Cochran

UPDATE, Dec. 12: Evan Kohlmann first reported that Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb claims credit for the bombings. The NEFA Foundation has an English transcript available, and here is an AP story on it: "The group identified the suicide bombers as Ibrahim Abu Othman, who attacked the U.N. building, and Abdel-Rahman Abu Abdel-Nasser al-Assimi, who attacked the constitutional council building."

Reports on the terrorist bombings in Algeria vary widely on the death toll, from 31 up to 72, with scores also injured. It could be the bloodiest single terrorist attack in Algeria since the early 1990s (you can see photos of the destruction). Reuters has a good timeline of armed attacks and bombings in Maghreb states.

We have reported more often than any other website on the development of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Algeria and northern Africa, and we will cover this event in depth. Here is a sample of CT Blog posts by Olivier Guitta, Evan Kohlmann, Walid Phares, and Jeffrey Imm, in chronological order starting with the most recent:

New worrying signs of activity in the Maghreb

Al Qaeda's Zawahiri Calls for Attacks Against Western Interests in North Africa, Overthrow of Leaders

Africa is the next stage of the war

Algerian President Bouteflika targeted by the September 6 terror attack, what if?

Focus on Al-Qaida in North Africa: New Video, Transcript, and Report Available

On bombings in Algeria on April 10 and 11 of this year:

The latest bombings in Algiers were to be expected; what is next?

The new young jihadists in Algeria

Text: Al-Qaida Claims Suicide Attacks in Algeria, Possible Links in Morocco

Algiers Terror "Ghazwa": It is a global war with Terror, in different battlefields

You can also access all archived posts on this topic by Olivier Guitta and Evan Kohlmann. The Council on Foreign Relations posted a summary this afternoon of AQIM on the Washington Post in which Olivier and Evan are quoted.

Recent PKK-Led Istanbul Riots Recall 2005 & 1995 Paris Riots

By Andrew Cochran

As Frank Hyland posted here yesterday, "Kurds now populate slum areas near virtually all of Turkey’s large cities in the west" and (quoting a Jamestown Foundation article) "bombings in Izmir and Istanbul on October 2nd and 7th appear to have been the work of the PKK." (UPDATE: A leading paper in Turkey also quoted Frank's post.) Frank reminded me today of the similarities between these riots in sections of Istanbul and the riots in the suburbs of Paris in 2005. At that time, Olivier Guitta wrote here and here and here on the Muslim composition of those suburbs and how French Islamists stood to gain from them. And I posted an excerpt from Lorenzo Vidino's book, "Al-Qaeda in Europe: The New Battleground of International Jihad," on the story of the 1995 race riots that plagued the French suburbs after the death of an Algerian-born terrorist.

Counterterrorism researcher Tim Thompson supplied two photos below of the riots by PKK supporters in Okmeydani, a working-class section of Istanbul. He told me of the atmosphere in another Istanbul suburb:

Bağcilar (Turkish for "orchard") is another Kurdish slum on the European side of Istanbul. It is located between the two ring roads that circle Istanbul... Bağcilar had the reputation as the center of black market activity in Istanbul, the "go to" spot for everything illegal. Need a PPK with a suppressor? Contact the PKK in Bağcilar. Same story with explosives. If it's in Turkey and it can go boom, it's for sale in Bağcilar.

A troubling set of similarities...

IPT Exclusive: Investigation Uncovers Jury Room Bullying in HLF Trial

By The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT)

The IPT's Michael Fechter has an exclusive and potentially ground breaking story on the backroom bullying that led to the mistrial in the case of the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development. Here's an excerpt:

DALLAS - She felt the men were guilty and tried to explain why to the 11 other jurors. When she finished, one juror spoke up in an angry tone.

"If you're going by the evidence in this room," she recalls him snapping, "then you need to go home."

The terrorism-support trial of five Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF) officials, which began July 24, already had been stressful for 49-year-old Kristina Williams. She had lost her job two weeks into it. Now during deliberations, she felt bullied and intimidated virtually every time she voiced an opinion.

"When I'd get off the jury I'd come home every night and basically cry because I felt like every time I spoke I would get knocked down, criticized, one way or the other for something pertaining to the way I voted," Williams said in an exclusive interview.

While several jurors favored acquittals, just one out of the 12 did most of the knocking down. In fact, interviews with three HLF jurors - speaking publicly for the first time - suggest that juror William Neal's stridency may have changed the trial's outcome. Neal even claimed credit for steering jurors away from convictions in a recent radio interview. Until now, he has been the sole source for public perception of the deliberations and the government's case.

The three jurors interviewed by the Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) showed the Neal-created perception as skewed. All three jurors say they disagree with his views of the evidence and the prosecution's case. To them, it seems clear that Neal made up his mind going into the jury room and refused to consider any argument in favor of guilt. He preferred to read the court's instructions rather than look at exhibits in evidence, they said. And his often snide manner intimidated and bullied those who disagreed with him.

The effect this had on the case is clear.

For the full article, including an exclusive on-camera interview with HLF juror Kristina Williams, click here to go to the website of the IPT.

Facebook’s Admiral Poindexter moment

By Roderick Jones

Facebook is rarely out of the news these days given its status as the darling of Silicon Valley, but recently the reporting has centered on the badly received, Beacon software system. Facebook introduced this mainly with the idea of allowing targeted advertisements. The idea was/is to track the users online behavior on partner websites such as, Travelocity and share this with their friends within Facebook. Following its introduction a backlash ensued and MoveOn.org organized an online petition to have the Beacon system removed or at least changed to allow an opt-out. Facebook agreed to this and a contrite Mark Zuckerberg blogged his apology. So far so what? Well, 'targeted advertising' is the current holy grail of social networks and Facebook isn’t alone in attempting some sort of analysis of its users online behavior to aim advertising to them.

Doesn’t this all sound reminiscent of Admiral Poindexter’s Total Information Awareness program? The analysis of online behavior was one of TIA’s central points although it was always presented in much more florid language. This of course was also shot down due to privacy issues but now almost all elements of the Internet structure are examining ways to analyze their users behavior in order to better direct advertising to them. While Google has commanded the lions share of online advertising revenues network operators are beginning to examine how to insert themselves into the process by ‘listening in’ to the traffic flowing across their networks to develop a far more precise picture of an Internet users behavior. According to the Wall Street Journal some small telecoms companies are already doing this. The result of all this activity is the likely ad hoc introduction of Total Information Awareness but this time designed to determine what color you would prefer your Christmas socks to be rather than if you represent a potential threat to national security!

The privacy concerns surrounding both TIA and Beacon are legitimate and should be addressed but systems of this kind do have the potential to indicate extremist activity within our virtual worlds. If online behavioral analysis is to be introduced by the network providers and social-network companies, perhaps they could be persuaded to adjust their algorithms to point out the bad guys as well as the shoppers.

Guilty Pleas by FARC Operatives Show How Pipelines Work

By Douglas Farah

Three Colombians have pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting FARC guerrillasthrough efforts to launder money on behalf of the terrorist organization and alien smuggling.

The case is important not only for putting FARC supporters and corrupt agents of the Colombian government in prison, but because it gives a glimpse into the pipelines that cross over between terrorist/guerrilla groups and transnational criminal networks.

The FARC, the oldest insurgency in Latin America, has long made its economic fortune through participation in the cocaine trade and in the cruel tactic of long-term kidnappings of valuable hostages, many who die after years of captivity, others whose lives are shattered because the FARC cannot and does not negotiate in good faith.

In the interest of full disclosure, I know several people who have been taken hostage by the FARC, including the most famous of the current crop, Igrid Bentancourt.

Ingrid is a friend of mine and I came to know her as a tremendously courageous senator taking on drug traffickers in the corrupt government of Ernesto Samper. She (and many others, including three American contractors) have been held in inhuman conditions for years. My full blog is here.

Keeping Kosovo From Becoming a New Breeding Ground for Terrorism

By Victor Comras

Kosovo’s Albanian community leaders will likely unilaterally declare Kosovo’s secession and independence from Serbia in the next few weeks. This follows the failure of UN sponsored negotiations on Kosovo’s final status. This will not be a smooth separation and is likely to be accompanied by inter-ethnic violence and growing tension along Kosovo’s borders with all its neighbors. The United States and Europe are poised to quickly recognize Kosovo, but Russia and other Slavic countries bordering Kosovo are not. The repercussions are likely to be felt throughout the Balkan region, and especially with regard to Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke’s excellent November 25th Opinion Piece in the Washington Post should serve as a wakeup call to this very dangerous situation. Ambassador Holbrooke wrote:

“Serb politicians, egged on by Moscow and Belgrade, are threatening that if Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia, then the Serb portion of Bosnia will declare its independence. Such unilateral secession, strictly forbidden under Dayton, would endanger the more than 150,000 Muslims who have returned there…. Charles English, the American ambassador in Sarajevo, and Raffi Gregorian, the deputy high representative in Bosnia, have warned of the danger. "Bosnia's very survival could be determined in the next few months if not the next few weeks," Gregorian told Congress this month. Virtually no one paid any attention.”

Serbia is also poised to support Kosovo’s minority Slavic population and to try and precipitate a de facto partition. Growing violence in Kosovo could also provoke huge refugee flows into both Macedonia and Montenegro, and may well give rise to growing tension between Albanian and Slavic communities in both countries. Knee-jerk reactions by the governments of these countries could further exacerbate inter-ethnic violence. And Albanians living in Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia’s Presevo valley could well push for their own inclusion in a greater Kosovo.

And, if these were not problems enough, there is a growing risk that terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda will seize on this situation to step up indoctrination, recruitment, and training of new adherents. US intelligence agencies have indicated that al-Qaeda adherents were quite active in the Balkans throughout the Bosnia War, and that they assisted in the training of some KLA units. Yossef Bodansky claimed in his book, Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America, that Muhammad al-Zawahiri, the engineer brother of Ayman al-Zawahiri, played a key role in this regard. .

The Bosnia war mujahadeen could well serve as a model for further recruitment action, especially if the political and economic situation in Kosovo rapidly deteriorates. Several radical Islamic groups have already taken strong root in Kosovo with the support of at least 10 major Islamic non governmental organizations working the streets. The largest of these, the Wahabbi sponsored Saudi Joint Relief Committee (SJRC), has been a major proponent of introducing fundamentalist Islamic instruction in Kosovo schools. This pressure has been resisted so far by the governing UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), but it is far from clear that this policy will hold when they leave. The International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO), the Muslim World League, the World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY), Al Rasheed Trust, Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, and other Wahhabi sponsored charitable organizations have also been very active Kosovo, UNMIK closed down the Al-Haramain and Al Rasheed operations after they were designated by the Al Qaeda and Taliban sanctions Committee. UNMIK also raided a house rented by the SJRC in Pristina in April 2000, stating the organization was acting as a cover for several Usama bin Laden operatives.

Iran Mullahs and the Muslim Brotherhood are also reportedly active in supporting Mosques and learning and social centers throughout Kosovo.

The State Department’s 2005 and 2006 Country Terrorism Reports acknowledged that several terrorist organizations continued to be active in Kosovo. While applauding UNMIK’s counter-terrorism efforts the reports noted that Kosovo’s porous borders and inadequate border guard service made Kosovo particularly vulnerable to the entry of terrorists and trafficking in arms. As UNMIK winds down it is far from clear that Kosovo fledging police and counter-terrorism units will be able to deal with these challenges.

The Bush Administration, which has championed quick recognition for an independent Kosovo, believes that European recognition and support for Kosovo represents the best assurance against al Qaeda-like terrorism taking hold there. They are counting on increased EU support for Kosovo’s counterterrorism efforts. They are also hoping that Kosovo’s long laic traditions, and the substantial number of non Muslim Albanians throughout the province will moderate the growing influence of the radical fundamentalist groups. Let’s hope that this is more than wishful thinking.

Iran Report Makes Case for Keeping Pressure On

By Michael Jacobson

A piece I had in today's Baltimore Sun on last week's NIE on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities.

Some analysts are arguing that because last week's National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran halted its covert nuclear program in 2003, sanctions against Iran are no longer necessary. In fact, the opposite conclusion could be drawn from the report, which suggests that Iran is vulnerable to outside pressure on the nuclear issue - and much more still needs to be done on this front.

In 2005, the U.S. embarked on a new strategy designed to ratchet up the financial pressure against Tehran for its nuclear-related activities and its support for terrorism. The U.S. made clear that as long as Iran persisted in defying the international community, the costs of its behavior would increase. Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey warned that Iranian leaders risked "turning the country into a financial pariah" and that Iran had to choose whether to continue down this "path of isolation."

To read the rest of the piece, click here

NEFA Foundation: English Transcript of Dec. 4 Audio Statement from Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, Leader of Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq"

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated the latest audio statement released by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq." During his message, Abu Omar declared the formation of a new armed unit--the Al-Sadeeq Brigade--and the beginning of a military offensive known as the "Battle of the Martyr Abu Umar al-Kurdi": "This offensive will be based on bombs and improvised explosives... Anyone who has already decided to martyr themselves in a suicide attack should execute their attacks during this period... this type of operation [suicide bombings] is the most painful for the enemy and has the most expansive, painful, and terrifying impact upon the enemy."

A copy of the English transcript of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi's speech is now available on the NEFA Foundation website, c/o NEFA's TerrorWatch subscription service.

The PKK - Alternate Battleground

By Frank Hyland

While scattered clashes persist, the snows have come to the passes in the Qandil Mountains, effectively putting a stop to most, if not all activity by guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) attacking Turkey from Northern Iraq. This year, however, Turkish citizens should not feel as secure that the overall conflict has ebbed as usual simply because SE Turkey has “cooled off” militarily along with the air temperatures. It is in and around Turkey’s larger cities, including those to the west, that it is demonstrably easy for the PKK to continue to carry out attacks. Kurds now populate slum areas near virtually all of Turkey’s large cities in the west. My Jamestown Foundation colleague, Gareth Jenkins, pointed out in an October 10th article (www.jamestown.org) that bombings in Izmir and Istanbul on October 2nd and 7th appear to have been the work of the PKK. Placed in the context of approximately a dozen other such attacks since February 2006 known or suspected to have been conducted by the PKK, it is clear that two campaigns have been underway.
The weather-imposed restrictions on guerrilla operations in the Turkish-Iraqi border area, of course, do not hold in the case of the concurrent urban attacks. From an attack-management standpoint, the PKK leadership (as is the case with numerous other terrorist groups) has a number of options, both doctrinal and technological. Whether pinpointing specific targets or broader categories of targets, PKK cells can be given the autonomy to choose the timing, depending on local conditions. The presence of a Turkish regional or national leader at a pre-chosen target location, for example, would argue for conducting the attack on the same date. The wide availability of television and Internet access provides the PKK leadership with the means to choose both a target and a specific date and even time for an attack.
Alternatively, a “Go” order can be issued via cell phone. Readers will recall that just three months ago on the anniversary of 9/11, Turkish police authorities thwarted an attack in Ankara in which cell phones would have played a part. A van discovered in an Ankara parking lot and containing hundreds of pounds of explosives had cell phones wired to the device as remote-detonation “triggers.” One of the phones had been used previously to call the Southeastern Turkish city of Sirnak. The Sirnak phone, in turn, was known to have been in contact with one of the top leaders of the PKK, demonstrating that the “path” of the phone calls, reversed, could just as easily deliver the “Go” order.
As if another “spur” were needed for the PKK to carry out additional attacks, Andrew Cochran told you on this site on December 1st that Turkey and Germany had announced the extradition to Turkey of two PKK members wanted for attacks inside Turkey in the 1990s. The two, Mehmet Iltas and Mehmet Kizilay, are among approximately 175 PKK members being sought by Turkey. It is no stretch of the imagination to expect that a Turkish trial and its associated publicity, accessed via the Internet in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, will be followed by at least one cell phone call to a major metropolitan area in Turkey.

Indonesian police responsible for firing on Australian counter-terror chief

By Kenneth Conboy

An incident on which I reported last week requires updating.

The Indonesian police on 7 December admitted that it was their own officers who mistakenly fired on Lester Cross, the director of the Jakarta Center for Law Enforcement Cooperation, a week ago. JCLEC, located in Semarang, Central Java, acts as a clearing house for counter-terrorist specialists in the region.

According to first reports, several motorcyclists, who had been following Cross’s bulletproof van, pulled alongside and fired at the windows with revolvers before fleeing the scene. Though there was initial speculation the attack was the work of terrorists, the police have now quietly reported it was actually four of their own undercover officers who opened fire after mistaking the Australian for a drug trafficker. The officers claim to have been acting on a tip from an arrested drug dealer.

The police have apologized to Cross, who said he understood it was an accident.

Misestimating Iran's Nuclear Strategies

By Walid Phares

"IT'S THE MISSILES NOT THE FISSILE"

The release to the US Congress of the NIE Iranian threat report has unleashed a wave of discussions streaming directly into the debate about the war on terror. From there, obviously, the ripple effects of the findings - plus their politicization - are feeding the critics of the War in Iraq; but more importantly, impacting both the friends and the foes of the United States, including principally the Iranian regime.

Basically, Americans and their allies are faced with a new assertion, created by this intelligence estimate, that the decision makers in Tehran had already abandoned their nuclear military strategy as of 2003; and hence, the US and its coalition would be at fault if it engaged in any military action against targets inside Iran. Specifically, due to American intelligence conclusions, the public - both domestic and international - are being led to believe that in the fall of 2003, the Iranian leadership had decided to stop its process of building an atomic weapon; and that further, today, in the fall of 2007, there isn’t an Iranian nuclear threat to America, to the region and to the international community.

Thus, logically, as a conglomeration of various interests is using the NIE findings as tacit approval for shielding the Iranian regime, Washington naively has trapped itself with the product of the best of the best in its national intelligence apparatus. Every word now used by this writer will be put to the task of demonstrating to my readers that, if anything, this NIE Report has revealed a major systemic problem with United States national security analysis; and that further, America’s ability to understand and detect threats against itself has been compromised.

The end product of this top US evaluation of the Khomeinist menace is not so different, unfortunately, from previous assessments in the 1990s which dismissed - or even ignored - the threat posed by our other foes: Jihadists, Salafists in general, and al Qaeda in particular. This NIE report is drawing significant debates at critical times; but the most serious conclusion I would make about its findings is that the systemic crisis, about which the 9/11 Commission warned the US Government and public, is still alive and evolving.

Here are talking points to demonstrate why the message of the report is flawed; how it is being used against US national security interests; and what the consequences will be of this derailment in threat analysis.

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Hamas Distances Itself From Zawahiri, But Threatens "Covert and Visible Action" Against Western Nations Who "Hinder Our Resistance Actions"

By Evan Kohlmann

On December 4, the Izzadeen al-Qassam Brigades (the military wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement) published the transcript of an English-language question-and-answer session conducted over e-mail with one of its spokesman known as "Abu Obaida." During the public interview, Abu Obaida bluntly dismissed Al-Qaida Deputy Commander Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri's recent criticisms of Hamas as merely a "media" spectacle: "We do not tell Al-Dhawahry [Al-Zawahiri] what to do in Afghanistan since we are not aware of his situation...His judgments and opinions are his; but they are not correct. More importantly, we are not awaiting approval or blessing from anyone except Allah." Nonetheless, when asked why Hamas "stay[s] silent" and doesn't "punish" infidel regimes that support the Palestinian Authority over Hamas, Abu Obaida replied, "We are not in a war against non-Muslims or against Muslims who support parties that act against the resistance. However, we make it clear that we will defend our resistance project with all our strength. We will not allow any party to interfere or hinder our resistance action...We take actions, covert and visible."

A copy of the transcript is now available for download from the NEFA Foundation website. (http://nefafoundation.org/miscellaneous/FeaturedDocs/AbuObaida_QA.pdf)

President Bush Meets with Syrian Opposition

By David Schenker

On December 4, President Bush met in the White House with a few pro-democracy members of the Syrian opposition, including US-based Ammar Abdelhamid and former Syrian parliamentarian Mamoun Homsi, who currently lives outside of Syria. Homsi who signed the Damascus Declaration, was imprisoned in 2002 and sentenced to five years for his criticism of the Syrian mukhabarat and the perpetual "state of emergency" laws that govern Syria.

Few details of the meeting have emerged. Homsi and Abdelhamid are said to have advocated during the meeting for on behalf of applying US pressure on Syria on the human rights front.

The hourlong White House meeting clearly demonstrates President Bush's ongoing commitment to democratic development in the region. Most interesting, however, was the timing of the meeting, just a week or so after the Annapolis conference that Syria--at the Administration's behest--attended.

In the region, Syrian participation at Annapolis was taken as a signal that the US was ready to start dealing again with Damascus. For Washington's allies in Lebanon--the March 14th led Government--the invite to Damascus was a sign of impending abandonment. The day after Annapolis, March 14th agreed to compromise with Hizballah in the selection of a Presidential candidate.

There is little doubt that President Bush is sympathetic to these pro-democracy Syrian oppositionists. But the timing of this meeting suggests the White House is looking to do some damage control vis-a-vis Syria. Annapolis was a great blow to US allies in Beirut and the Syrian opposition. Sadly, this largely symbolic Administration gesture comes a little late.

This past week, the Damascus Declaration group in Syria elected a new leadership. Hopefully in the coming months, the Administration will do more than just issuing a perfunctory statement in support of this democratically-minded opposition. Homsi and Abdelhamid's message on human rights in Syria would be a good start.

New NEFA Report: "The Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Netherlands"

By Evan Kohlmann

A new NEFA Foundation report is now available authored by NEFA Director of Analysis and Research Ronald Sandee and titled "The Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Netherlands." A former senior analyst in the Dutch Defense Intelligence Service, Mr. Sandee attempts to "paint as complete a picture as possible of the Muslim Brotherhood's operations in the Netherlands" and its fairly "sophisticated infrastructure"--even at a local level. The report includes various sub-sections, including on the "Al-Aqsa Network in the Netherlands", "International Muslim Brotherhood Activity in the Netherlands", and "Independent Brotherhood-Linked Activities in the Netherlands."

The report can be downloaded from the NEFA Foundation website.

A Very Big Bat

By Bill West

Within the past week or so, we have learned (or re-learned) the following:

• al-Qaeda is recruiting western/European Muslim radicals who can easily enter Europe and the US, including those who can utilize the US Visa Waiver Program with European passports;

• the GAO has found serious security concerns with the US “Diversity Visa” Program - finding it ripe for exploitation by those utilizing false or fraudulently procured identity documents, particularly in terrorist producing countries;

• a US Marine Captain born in Lebanon, who had served in Iraq, pleaded guilty to conspiring to commit naturalization and passport fraud and is linked to a similar Lebanese fraud/felon ex-FBI agent and CIA officer, both of whom are associated with a Hezbollah-linked fugitive restaurateur from Detroit wanted for tax and immigration fraud;

• an unknown but significant number of Iraqi military and law enforcement officials who were brought into the US for training deserted that training once in the US and have either claimed political asylum or are completely missing.

What do all these have in common? As often reported in the CTB, these matters reflect upon the close linkage of US national security and immigration issues. A beating victim smacked repeatedly in the head with a baseball bat will soon succumb to the attack, especially if it is a large bat. This combination of immigration law violations and security threats equals a very big bat. Any guess who might be the victims?

Why Are Iraqi Soldiers Now "Missing" in U.S.?

By Michael Cutler

Our government often creates some of our nation's biggest headaches including where the critical issue of national security is concerned. We have all read accounts of the "Zetas", heavily armed paramilitary soldiers who are employed by the Mexican drug trafficking organizations who had been trained by our own military and DEA officials. They had been armed and trained by our government with the hope that they would assist our nation in combating drug and alien smuggling along the incredibly dangerous border the United States shares with Mexico. Of course they have turned on us and now, using the tactics that our government taught them, pose a serious threat to our citizens, Border Patrol agents and other members of the law enforcement community.

Now we are being told, in this article, that Iraqi soldiers who were brought to our country for training have gone "missing" in the United States!

This is an extremely serious situation for a number of reasons. First of all, these soldiers are apparently needed by the Iraqi government to create an effective military force to stabilize that nation. Soldiers who seek asylum or go missing in American are obviously not going to help Iraq. Of even greater concern is the fact that hundreds of such soldiers who have gone missing may pose a threat to our nation's security. These people are soldiers. They have received training into military tactics, intelligence and weaponry by our people so they understand how we operated. (Sounds similar to the Zeta fiasco, doesn't it?). Didn't the federal officials responsible for the Iraqi soldiers recall the words of the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that "there are elements of the Iraqi police and elements of Iraqi Army that are infiltrated" by terrorist elements?

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High on Terror Alert: Mosque Demolition Haunts Delhi !

By Animesh Roul

The National Capital Region in India remains on high state of alert for the third day today. Security has been stepped up following Intelligence inputs on six Harkat-ul-Jehadi Islamia (HuJI) suspects who have reportedly sneaked into Delhi through the Loni border area on Dec 04 and possibly sheltered in the Muslim predominated Seelampur area of East Delhi. Sources in Intelligence agencies indicated that these terror suspects have been working for Mohammed Tuffail Hussaini, a wanted HuJI commanders currently based in Pakistan. Hussaini had masterminded a serial train blasts in 1993, on the first Babri Masjid demolition anniversary and soon after fled to Pakistan. Hussaini’s hand also suspected in Nov 23 Uttar Pradesh serial blasts.

As per the Intel-inputs these HuJi cadres came all the way from Deoband in Uttar Pradesh and their aim was to perpetrate terrorist attacks in Delhi on the 15th anniversary of infamous Babri Masjid demolition (Dec 06). Deoband is the place where Darul Uloom Madrasa is located that inspired the whole Taliban movement. Like Deoband, ‘December 06’ is quite significant for India. For some Hindu right-wing groups, the day is 'Victory Day' while for some Muslim organisations this day is a 'Black day.' Islamic violence was redefined and took the form of terrorism primarily due to the insecurity developed amongst the Muslim minorities after the demolition of Babri Mosque fifteen years ago. Fundamentalists fought back immediately with the help of organized criminal gangs and with active help of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and radical madrasa educated student groups in India (e.g. SIMI). Since then the country witnessed continuation of subversive activities by the Islamist outfits.

HuJi Fugitive: Mohammed Tuffail Hussaini (Source: CBI, INDIA)

NEFA Series "Target America": The New York City Subway Poison Gas Plot

By Evan Kohlmann

The NEFA Foundation has released the twelfth in its "Target America" series of reports examining the multitude of threats directed at the United States since 9/11--this time focusing on the plot by a Bahrain-based cell to launch a cyanide gas attack on the New York City subway system. According to former CIA Director George Tenet, when the cell asked Al-Qaida’s central leadership for permission to launch the attack, “word came back from [Al-Qaida number two] Ayman al-Zawahiri himself in early 2003 to cancel the operation and recall the operatives, who were already staged in New York - because ‘we have something better in mind.’” The NYPD reports that “surveillance of the subway stations” had already been “undertaken.”

A leaked DHS-FBI bulletin on the chemical dispersal device the operatives planned to utilize is also available for download from the NEFA Foundation website.

Treasury Designates Individuals with Ties to Syria, Al Qaida, and Sunni Terrorists

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury continued its campaign to squeeze the finances of Al Qaida in Iraq and Sunni terrorists in Iraq by designating seven individuals with ties to the insurgency and Saddam Hussein's regime. One was designated for supporting Al-Qaida in Iraq, while the six other individuals were senior regime officials or their immediate family members, some of whom support the insurgents. Several of the designated individuals are residing in and under the protection of Syria, and the Iraqi government has demanded that the Syrians arrest them and turn them over.

Among the designated are the following:

• Fawzi Mutlaq Al-Rawi, appointed leader of the Iraqi wing of the Syrian Ba’th Party by Syrian President Assad in 2003, was designated for providing financial and material support to Al Qaida in Iraq. In November 2005 he facilitated the provision of $300,000 to Al Qaida and provided IEDs, rifles, and suicide bombers. He was a key leader in 2005 of a unified terrorist command betweem former regime elements and Al Qaida. Al-Rawi is still supported by the Syrian Government and is closely tied to Syrian Intelligence, whose leader, Asif Shawkat, was named a Specially Designated National in January 2006 for furthering Syria’s support for terrorism in Lebanon. In 2004, Al-Rawi ensured that former regime elements fighting the coaltion would receive material aid from Syria.
• The son of Al-Tikriti, the former Iraqi Minister of the Interior who was designated in June 2003. According to the Treasury Department release, the son has supported the Sunni insurgency and "transported money into Iraq for insurgents and facilitates foreign fighter movement into Iraq."
• Thabet Al-Duri, former Ba’th Party branch secretary and governor of Basra under Saddam.
• Hasan Hashim Al-Dulaymi, former regime official who directed an anti-coalition cell in Baghdad in late 2003. The Treasury release states that "Al-Dulaymi is in contact with leading former regime officials, including designated former regime officials Muhammad Yunis Ahmad, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri and Taha Yasin Ramadan."

For past CT Blog posts on the success of the joint Treasury-Defense Department anti-terrorist financing effort in Iraq, see:

In "Call for Donations," Al Qaeda Admits Financial Stress;

U.S. "Iraq Threat Finance Cell" Puncturing Insurgents' Financial Network; and

"Fighting Terrorist Financing: Canada's Problems and Pentagon's "Threat Finance" Initiatives"

In my opinion. the designations once again show how useless it is to consider Syria as a potential partner in any kind of "Grand Bargain" for Mideast peace. The Assad regime has been eye-deep for years in the terrorists' killings of American soldiers and innocent Iraqis; to even consider the possibility that Assad would suddenly "see the light" strikes me as beyond wishful thinking.

Africa Slipping Away

By Douglas Farah

Secretary of State is reportedly uneasy over the faltering peace efforts across Africa, an unraveling that will have direct strategic and security implications for the United States.

Among the top three problem spots, mostly ignored over the past decade, are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Sudan.

These are at the top because they are ongoing, armed conflicts. The Sudanese regime (surprise, surprise) stood Rice up on her recent trip to the region; the president of Ethiopia is ailing, and Somalian leaders refuse to create a truly inclusive government that could embrace everyone except the radical Islamist factions. So that conflict drags on.

The DRC, with its vast mineral resources, has uranium, a strong North Korean presence, Hizbollah (and possibly al Qaeda) diamond networks and is a long-standing center for weapons trafficking and other smuggling activities. The endless wars against new warlords rage on, in part because the central government has no legitimacy and the DRC's neighbors make a killing by raping the natural resource base of the country.

But the hot wars are hardly the only issues to resolve.

One could add South Africa, a growing haven for radical Islamist groups; Zimbabwe, a destabilizing factor that is dragging down several other countries; Angola and Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Cameroon, all despotic but oil-rich regimes with a vast network of criminal pipelines crisscrossing them; and many other trouble spots. My full blog is here.

The UN's Counterterrorism Opportunity

By Michael Jacobson

A piece I wrote for the Guardian Online on the Council of Europe's latest report on the UN and EU terrorist blacklists.

In mid-November, the Council of Europe -- the author of last summer's highly critical report on alleged US secret prisons in Europe -- issued its latest assessment of global counterterrorism efforts. This time, the council took aim at the terrorist lists maintained by the UN and the EU, charging that these blacklists are "totally arbitrary" and "violate the fundamental principles of human rights and rule of law." The council's criticism of the UN comes at a time when its terrorist list -- and the UN itself -- is seriously slipping in its counterterrorism effectiveness and reach. Reversing this trend would be an important step in countering an increasingly revitalised al-Qaida.

For the first few years after 9/11, the UN was at the centre of the fight against terrorism. Its terrorist blacklist -- better known as the "1267 list" after the resolution establishing it -- was a particularly important part of the international efforts against al-Qaida. The 1267 list represented the first time that the international community had reached a consensus on who was a terrorist, paving the way for joint action against al-Qaida in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. This was in sharp contrast to the traditionally paralysing debates at the UN about terrorists versus "freedom fighters".

To read the rest of the piece, click here

The Counterterrorism Foundation Speakers Bureau Opens

By Andrew Cochran

Today we announce the opening of the Counterterrorism Foundation Speakers Bureau, consisting of some of the Contributing Experts on CTB. Our experts are leaders in their respective fields and can bring their experience and knowledge to you directly in presentations, speeches and on panels. Each speaker will determine his own fee, and the Foundation will receive a portion. To view each speaker's area of expertise and request an appearance, go to the Speakers Bureau page, which will be linked in the left sidebar. At this time, the list of Contributing Experts participating in the Speakers Bureau include Douglas Farah, Michael Cutler, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Olivier Guitta, Victor Comras, Dennis Lormel, and myself.

Contending with Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

By Matthew Levitt

My thoughts on the new Iran NIE, as they appear in today's San Francisco Chronicle:

This week, the U.S. intelligence community released to Capitol Hill the unclassified key judgments of its latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities. The new estimate opens with the startling judgment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, which is sure to dominate the discourse to follow. It shouldn't.

The estimate's more significant conclusion is that the most likely tool to successfully alter Iran's nuclear calculus is targeted political and economic pressure, not military action.

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An Appreciation of Rep. Henry Hyde's Role in Fight Against Terrorism

By Michael Kraft

Former Congressman Henry Hyde, who died last week after a long Congressional career, played an important but largely little-noticed role in shaping major counterterrorism legislation.

The Illinois Republican was best known for his role in chairing the House of Representatives impeachment hearings for President Clinton and his strong anti-abortion stance, as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. However he was instrumental in strengthening major counterterrorism legislation that had been drafted by the Clinton administration but weakened by the Senate.

Mr. Hyde was chairman of the House Judiciary Committee in 1995 when Congress began considering an omnibus counterterrorism bill that the Justice Department and State Department drafted in an effort to curb terrorism fund raising by terrorist groups that did not depend on support from governments such as Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Libya.

The Clinton administration legislation included key provisions that made it a criminal offense for American citizens, residents and companies to provide funding and other forms of material support, such as sanctuary and weapons, to terrorist organizations. The bill, drafted by career Justice and State Department officials, also included an improved version of 1994 legislation that made it illegal to provide material support for specific acts of terrorism, regardless of whether they were committed by previously known or designated terrorist groups.

The bill generally had been weakened in the Senate, in large part by the efforts by staff for then Senator Abrahams, a Republican from Michigan which has a large Arab-American population in the Detroit area. The Senate Judiciary chairman, Orrin Hatch of Utah, generally deferred to those who felt the most strongly about the bill. One Senate draft version would even prohibit prosecutions unless the U.S. government could prove that the leaders of the recipient foreign terrorist organization knew that the contributed funds were used to finance specific acts of terrorism -- as if these highly secret organizations would be willing to provide transparent and accurate organizational and financial flow charts. The Justice Department and the State Department naturally opposed this Senate version. (I handled the legislation for the State Department’s Counterterrorism Office and was involved in the discussions with members and staff).

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Hezbollah in the driver's seat in Lebanon

By Olivier Guitta

Hezbollah's grip over Lebanon is increasing by the day. And the West does not seem ready to stop this freight train any longer.
The Croissant just reported the following two stories (full versions available to subscribers) that prove how Hezbollah is planning its "coup": Did Hezbollah arrest UNIFIL’s commander, a few weeks ago? Iran provides armored cars to Hezbollah.

I just wrote a piece for the Middle East Times on Hezbollah's tactics to seize power .
Here is a short excerpt:
While Lebanon is without a president for now, it looks like a favorite is quickly emerging: Lebanon army chief and Damascus ally General Michel Sleiman. If he were to be elected, the winner would not only be Syria, but more importantly Hezbollah.

In fact, unsurprisingly Hezbollah has been planning and implementing a secret coup for some time using a multi-pronged strategy.

First with a smart political weapon. Against all odds Hezbollah struck a deal with Christian heavyweight and formerly anti-Syrian leader, General Michel Aoun. This was the initial step in creating a major division within Lebanon's Christian community.

But that was just the beginning. Hezbollah is now trying to infiltrate Aoun's party the Free Patriotic Movement (also known as CPL), as recently reported by Kuwait's daily newspaper Al Seyassah.

You can read the rest here.

Victor Comras & Larry Johnson Debate the New NIE & Iran

By Andrew Cochran

Several of the CTB Contributing Experts and I periodically participate in an email discussion on CT issues, hosted by Philip "Rick" Henika, with others including former CIA and State Department official Larry Johnson. Today, after Rick sent Larry Johnson's analysis of the new NIE on the Iranian nuclear situation as posted on his "No Quarter" website, Victor Comras engaged Larry in an e-mail debate on the NIE and the broader question of the threat posed by Iran. The two have graciously agreed to let me post the full text of their debate, beginning with the text of Larry's No Quarter post. I edited only for punctuation errors and rare misspellings.

Larry Johnson

Now we know why some in the Bush Administration-Dick Cheney’s folks in particular-fought like hell to keep the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program under wraps. IRAN HALTED ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM IN 2003. Here’s what CNN is reporting:

Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says. A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with “high confidence” that the Islamic republic halted an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

This report was ready to go in December of 2006 but Cheney and his allies pushed back hard to stop it. They knew, as they know today, that this headline does not help them in their rush to start a new war. Damn it all!!! How dare those pesky Iranians prove malleable to diplomatic initiatives and pressure. You mean we can solve things without starting a war and killing civilians?

Boy there are going to be some grumpy neo-cons. This is probably part of the war on Christmas. This kind of news will make it very difficult for the agitators for war with Iran to hoist a glass of eggnog and toast bombing ragheads in Tehran.

Don’t be surprised to hear about how the intelligence community is now filled with partisans intent on undermining the Bush Administration. They’ll sound an awful lot like Hugo Chavez, who also is whining about the vagaries of democracy and insisting he only lost the referendum in Venezuela-which would have allowed him to become President for life-because of a nefarious CIA plot.

There are some unsung heroes in the National Intelligence Council who insisted on the integrity of the product. In the face of enormous political pressure to tailor information and pull punches that undermine Bush Administration talking points, the intelligence professionals did their job. They told the truth based on the facts in hand.

Now we need to wait and see-will the Bush Administration and the Congress take no for an answer?

Victor Comras

It seems to me that we are all missing the real questions here:

At what point did the Iranians halt their Nuclear Weapon program? How advanced are they? How close are they to Nuclear weapon capability if and when they recommence? Is uranium enrichment the last remaining component needed? Did they put their NW program on hold to await sufficient enriched fuel? What other explanations for putting enrichment on such a fast track? At what point in the NW development program do we consider them so close that intervention is necessary? How far are they from that point? Can we tolerate them having enriched fuel on hand? Can we tolerate them having Nuclear weapon fuel enrichment capability? These are just some of the questions that need answers before we can truly pronounce on how best to secure our national security interests.

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Afghan Insurgent Commander Haqqani Dead or Alive?

By James Gordon Meek

To most Americans, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan is an inconsequential pile of rocks on the other side of the world - if they’ve even heard of it. But the FATA is where Al Qaeda was born 20 years ago amid the Soviet war next door in Afghanistan. Today, it’s the staging area for both a resurgent Al Qaeda and the Taliban waging war against American troops on the Afghan side of the border. On Sunday, we reported in the New York Daily News that white European Al Qaeda recruits have been spotted there recently. It's causing great concern among U.S. intelligence officers, because of the potential for these Anglo-looking operatives to exploit the Visa Waiver Program the U.S. shares with Europe.

The man who controls much of the FATA, as well as huge chunks of the provinces on the other side of the Durand Line inside Afghanistan, is Afghan warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani. I blogged about Haqqani recently in a post called, “Remember The Name of This U.S. Enemy.” We reported finding a recently updated United Nations document that seemed to add to speculation that the elderly Haqqani might have died, as the Afghan press has claimed. We also reported that the CIA unsuccessfully tried to woo their former ally Haqqani after the 9/11 attacks.

Now the U.S. military is fueling speculation the man responsible for so many G.I.s’ deaths may indeed have dropped dead.

Haqqani was a legendary - and CIA-supported - mujahideen commander of the Soviet war, a Pashtun tribal elder, a longtime friend and protector of Osama Bin Laden and now the chief strategist for the Taliban. In this war, Haqqani has been aided by his son Siraj, who introduced suicide bombings to his homeland. The U.S. military took another bizarre swipe at Siraj last weekend for his brutal tactics in a statement that raises questions about his father’s possible demise. Combined Joint Task Force-82 claimed that the younger Haqqani has “used his father’s name and reputation” and that he “differs vastly from his father in terms of tactics and allegiances.”

“Jalalludin [sic] Haqqani would not approve of Siraj’s motives or tactics. He will never reach the status of his father,” CJTF-82 spokesman Maj. Chris Belcher said in the statement.

Intelligence officials in Washington found the timing of the pronouncement bizarre, but said they have no reason to believe Jalaluddin Haqqani is dead or that he has completely given up his command of the Afghan insurgency. They also discounted a rumor that CIA officers laid eyes on Jalaluddin’s corpse. But, as the Wall Street Journal reported last month, rumors continue to fly that one or both Haqqanis are now interested in cutting a deal to cease hostilities - however unlikely that may be.

Hear that, Osama?

U.S. Treasury Designates Leader of Al Qaida in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

By Andrew Cochran

The U.S. Treasury today designated Abdelmalek Droukdel (Droukdel), the leader or emir of Al Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), formerly known as the GSPC. Any assets he might have under U.S. jurisdiction are frozen, and U.S. persons are prohibited from doing business with him.

From the Treasury statement:

Droukdel reportedly supervised the April 2007 AQIM bombings of the Prime Minister's office and police facilities in Algiers, killing 33. Droukdel used an April 2007 Internet video addressing these bombings as a vehicle to urge his followers to become suicide bombers. He also ordered the December 2006 attack on a U.S. company's bus in Algiers that killed one and wounded nine, including a U.S. citizen. Further, Droukdel ordered the March 2006 assassination of a former AQIM leader who had surrendered to Algerian authorities.

Olivier Guitta, Evan Kohlmann, and others have posted numerous times on the Algerian-based AQIM, which "merged" with al Qaida in 2006. GSPC was named as an Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization on September 23, 2001, and was added to the UN's list of al Qaida associates on October 6, 2001. You can read the Interpol dossier on Droukdel.

With Little Fanfare, Nada's Efforts to be Delisted Fail

By Douglas Farah

The Swiss Supreme Court has ruled that Youssef Nada, a leader of the international Muslim Brotherhood, must stay on the list specially designated individuals implemented by the United Nations Security Council in the immediate aftermath of 9-11.

The Nov. 27 ruling by the Swiss court stands in sharp contrast to the decision of the United Nations and the U.S. Treasury Department to delist one of Nada's most active partners in banking and investment around the world, Idriss Nasreddin.

The Swiss ruling denied Nada's motion to be be de-listed under Swiss law because one of the primary cases against him and his web of al Taqwa companies and financial institutions, had been dropped by Swiss prosecutors. The case included Bank al Taqwa, based in Nassau, Bahamas and a key financial institution of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The contrasting views of the UN sanctions regime highlights the growing difficulty of making and keeping them effective.

As my colleague Jonathan Winer noted with Nasreddin,the move to take Nasreddin off the list was a surprising move with no coherent public explanation, particularly given the fact that President Bush personally announced the Nada and Nasreddin designations simultaneously.

According to the Treasury Department statement issued when the Nasreddin de-listing became public, the main reason for Nasreddin's initial designation was his association with Nada. My full blog is here.

The Promise of Mathematics to Counterterrorism

By Jeffrey Breinholt

This last week while I was on vacation in California, two articles caught my attention. On the Counterterrorism Blog, Roderick Jones described how virtual worlds are helping Western governments combat terrorism, by offering realistic computer-based simulations to government personnel involved in operational decisionmaking, and as communication platforms. Meanwhile, an article in LifeScience, by Heather Whipps describes the utility of academic mathematics to fighting al Qaida.

These articles pick up on something I have been writing about - the need for more empiricism in counterterrorism. They came at a time when I was diving into a number of new books on applied math.

Whipps' article focused on mathematical efforts to model the ideal terrorist cell, which uses graph theory to understand how networks operate and evolve. If we can identify terrorist networks and how they work, we might be better at identifying the best target nodes to eliminate in order to maximize disruption. Whipps describes the work of Jonathan Farley from Cal Tech, and quotes him as saying, "I am open to someone telling me this is nonsense," while cautioning, "I do not get the impression that the U.S. government cares about mathematics, even though you can prove you can get better results with less money."

While I do not think this claim is entirely accurate - the FBI employs trained empiricists in its information office and in the Terrorist Financing Operations Section, and they are doing some amazing things with Bank Secrecy Act data - I understand Farley’s sentiments. Official counterterrorism efforts have not yet been integrated with university research centers, in part because of their distinct cultures and different methods, and, within the counterterrorism ranks, the press of other matters.

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Indonesia Update

By Kenneth Conboy

For the past two years, conservative Islamic parties in Indonesia, often supported by paramilitary religious groups known for their intolerance in an otherwise tolerant, diverse society, have been periodically pushing to have elements of Islamic Law become the law of the land.

This time, social critics are pushing back. On 3 December, a diverse group of activists—including many from mainstream Islamic groups—urged the country’s legislative branch to reject the proposed legislation.

What makes the debate noteworthy is the way that the Islamic hardliners have been able to disguise their end-game. In a brilliant political move, they penned a so-called “Anti-Pornography Bill” that would ostensibly protect women and children from the scourges associated with pornography.

In fact, the anti-pornography angle was just a veil. According to the authors of the document, pornography is vaguely defined to include just about anything that would offend their hyper-caffeinated moral sensitivities. Many forms of women’s bathing suits, for example, would suddenly become illegal. Any publications or works of art that showed all but a fully-dressed female form, too, would conceivably be off limits. So would many cultural events, such as those in tourist destinations like Bali.

Worse, the bill calls on “all parties” to protect morality. This has been seen as a call to arms for the Islamic Defenders Front and their ilk, which have made a name for themselves raiding nightspots during the Ramadhan fasting month.

Secular political groups oppose this shift, which they correctly note would undermine the nation’s cultural diversity. But because of the name of the bill, they are often left having to explain why they are defending “pornography.”

The current administration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, meantime, is doing precious little to maintain the status quo—in no small part because the fragile ruling coalition contains some of the very political parties that wrote the bill in the first place.

No date has been set for the final debate on the Anti-Pornography Bill. But with presidential campaigning set to unofficially start next year (the election is not until 2009), hard-line Islamic parties will probably try to flex their muscles—and make another push for passage of the bill—within the next two quarters.

In other news in Indonesia, a court in South Jakarta on 3 December sentenced six Islamic militants for a series of terrorist acts in Sulawesi, including the beheading of three Christian schoolgirls and the murder of a priest. The extremists got up to nineteen years in prison, though in the Indonesian justice system they could conceivably be freed in a fraction of that time.

At least one of the militants was unrepentant after his sentencing. “Eighteen years is not a problem,” he said. “There will be a more noble trial before God.”

Darkness on Referendum Eve in Caracas

By Aaron Mannes

Lost in the good news that the Venezuelan people rejected President Hugo Chavez’s constitutional referendum is the story that federal police raided the main Jewish social club in Caracas the night before the polls opened for the referendum. This should be a reminder that although Chavez appeared conciliatory when he addressed his supporters there are some very dark tendencies in his regime. These aspects of the regime have not fully manifested themselves - beyond rhetorical chumminess with some of the world’s worst characters such as Iranian President “I want to erase Israel” Ahmadinejad, Cuba’s Castro, and Zimbabwe’s Mugabe. But as Chavez finds his domestic reforms stymied (one aspect of the defeated referendum was to allow the President to be re-elected indefinitely) and his economy implodes (inflation is on the upswing and government controlled pricing has led to food shortages) naked violence and repression may appear openly with tragic consequences for Venezuela and perhaps beyond.

Two things must be made absolutely clear. First, violence, repression and terrorism often start by targeting Jews - but they inevitably move beyond the initial victims.

Second, this raid, ostensibly searching for weapons and explosives, was not an isolated incident - it is part of a pattern of anti-Semitic behavior by the Chavez regime.

Read the complete post here.

Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

By Matthew Levitt

Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released the unclassified key judgments of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The new NIE updates the intelligence community’s understanding of Iran’s capabilities since its 2005 assessment on Iran, and begins with the startling judgment that “we judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program.” The NIE acknowledges that Iran has continued to pursue a civilian uranium enrichment program as well as research and development projects with both commercial and conventional military applications. Some of these R&D projects would be of “limited use” for nuclear weapons.

The NIE is controversial in that it appears to downplay Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It underscores current policy, however, by underlining the utility of targeted financial and political measures to induce Iran to alter its behavior.

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CIA to Critics: We Get Off Our Tails to Spy

By James Gordon Meek

Hillary Clinton loves to tout her foreign policy creds, which amounts to being a former first lady who made a lot of overseas trips - often with first daughter Chelsea in tow to share the occasional elephant ride. As a Senate Armed Services Committee member, she also has parachuted into hotspots like Iraq and Afghanistan. Apparently Clinton thinks America's spies ought to follow her example and get off their tushes. She took a jab at the CIA for being risk-averse in a bizarre non sequitur buried in her Foreign Affairs magazine op-ed published last month, which left many scratching their heads.

"Combating terrorism around the world will require better intelligence and a clandestine service that is out on the street, not sitting behind desks," Clinton wrote.

So was it just coincidence that CIA Director Mike Hayden, in a recent pep talk for newly-hired spies, addressed the "desk" question? Newly minted clandestine operatives will soon get to "penetrate today's high priority targets," Hayden promised in a speech to 300 rookies and their spouses at a Langley meet-and-greet he hosted earlier this month.

Even intelligence analysts, the classic CIA desk jockeys, "are more likely than at any other time in our agency's history to be working in the field instead of behind a desk," Hayden boasted to his spies, according to my spies.

A running theme in Hayden's speeches is that lack of experience is no obstacle to going into harm's way. Spy work is "as demanding as it is fascinating," he said, adding, "We're all happy to have you aboard." He also invited the new hires to mingle with top CIA brass at the party and do something they'll likely never be asked to do again for their country: "Feel free to introduce yourself."

When the New York Daily News Asked about Hayden's remarks, his spokesman Mark Mansfield only allowed that the new crop of recruits who partied with the boss are joining a massive workforce with an attrition rate below 5%, a 15-year low, and half of today's spooks signed up after the 9/11 attacks. A lot of them will learn key foreign languages spoken in target countries, including Dari, Pashto, Urdu, Farsi, Chinese, Russian, Korean and Arabic, Mansfield said.

Germany Sends PKK Suspects to Turkey, Wants Turkey to Return Al-Qaeda Suspect

By Andrew Cochran

Several days ago, Germany signaled a crackdown on PKK elements there through the extradition of two men to Turkey. In return, Turkey might send a German citizen of Turkish origin, with suspected links with al-Qaeda, back to Germany.

The Today's Zaman website reported that Germany extradited Mehmet İltaş and Mehmet Eşref Kızılay, both members of the PKK, and quoted Turkey's Justice Ministry as saying that "intensified efforts and diplomatic undertakings" to return PKK members have "started bearing positive results." İltaş was wanted in Turkey for attacks on a police station and a minibus in 1991 in which eight people were killed. Kızılay is accused of killing a policeman in 1991 and had been detained in Germany since 1998.

Germany wants Turkey to send a suspect identified only as "Atilla S.," who was captured in Konya on Nov. 7. Today's Zaman reported it briefly: "German citizen Atilla S., 22, who was wanted by the Turkish Police Department's Interpol-Sirene Department on charges of joining al-Qaeda and participating in bomb making, was captured in Konya on Nov. 7." We received more information on him from Sasha Eckstein of FDD and Global Crisis Watch:

That sentence deserves more than a brief mention. Atilla (Attila) Selek lived in Ulm, and attended mosque with Fritz Gelowicz. He is wanted in relation to the Germany cell. According to police, he trained in Pakistan in IJU camps, and maintained correspondence with IJU leaders by emailing and chatting from German internet cafes under the pseudonym "Muaz." The IJU is an Uzbek organization based in Pakistan which has very strong ties to Turkey. Selek is Turkish, and his ethnic hometown of Konya is known by authorities to have IJU sympathizers. He traveled with Fritz Gelowicz and Adem Yilmaz, both now in custody, to Saudi Arabia for religious reasons in late 2005 or 2006. They reportedly met with IJU leaders there.

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The Bombs of Dhamma

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

I have a new article at the Daily Standard, co-written with my colleague Nick Grace, about two musicians who hope to create social change in Pakistan. Singer-songwriter Imran Raza and guitarist Faraz Anwar hope that their music and the tolerant spirituality that undergirds it can provide an alternative to the extremism that has gripped the country -- and they are taking personal risks in advancing this message. An excerpt:

Raza began looking for a musical collaborator. The search took four years, but was finally successful. Faraz Anwar, 30, had won Pakistan's national music competition at the age of 11, and had become a full-time musician at 14, touring as a guitarist with top-tier acts. Counting his recordings as a session musician, Anwar has sold over 30 million albums -- no small feat in a country where music piracy is rampant. Although popular performers had tried to form bands with Anwar, he had always turned them down.

It was President Musharraf who introduced Raza and Anwar. Raza had a family connection with the president -- an uncle had gone through officer training with Musharraf. Last May, Musharraf and Raza saw each other at a Sufi musical performance at the governor's house in Karachi, and Raza struck up a conversation with the president, a fan of classic rock. Raza explained his musical project and expressed an interest in working with the legendary Anwar.

Days later, Raza found himself in Anwar's modern recording studio in Karachi. Above an impressive guitar collection hung two six-foot posters, one of Jimi Hendrix and one of Anwar. Anwar was initially dismissive -- but when he flipped through Raza's lyrics, a song called "The Bombs of Dhamma" caught his eye. Dhamma is the Pali word for dharma, which Raza explains as "an enlightened state of purified intentions where one doesn't desire to do anyone harm." The song proclaims: "I believe in enlightened moderation, the beauty of knowing who you are." It calls for "Bombs of purity and bombs of joy / Bombs of peace and bombs of love / Bombs of harmony and bombs of compassion / The bombs of dhamma."

On reading this, Anwar exclaimed in Urdu, "Finally someone has come my way who is on my level!" The two musicians began recording Raza's songs. The first one they tackled was "Fly with Us," which mixes South Asian flutes and classical Sufi singing with classic rock. Speaking of the need for "a real reformation," the song contrasts religious intolerance with the fresh spirit of classic rock, inviting listeners to spurn extremism and "fly with" Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, and the Beatles.

You can read the whole article here. I have also previously written about the arts as a potential vehicle for creating social change in the Islamic world:

• "Movie Stars vs. Islamists," published in the Weekly Standard on September 18, 2006, examines the work of Indonesian filmmaker Joko Anwar.
• "Warrior of Love," published in the Daily Standard on November 15, 2006, examines the work of Indonesian rock singer Ahmad Dhani.