The Clock Ticks: Sanction Iran Now

By Matthew Levitt

A version of this article appeared in German in today's Financial Times Deutschland under the title, "Die Uhr Tickt."

The latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities has been the subject of much analysis, most of which has been off point. The new estimate opens with the startling judgment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, which has led some to conclude sanctions are no longer necessary. They are. Indeed, the estimate's more significant conclusion is that the most likely tool to successfully alter Iran's nuclear calculus is targeted political and economic pressure, not military action.

Iran continues to produce fissile material and the ballistic missiles needed to deploy a weapon. According to IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in "only a few months" once it completes the fuel-cycle facilities it is building. The answer is to sanction Iran now, before it reaches this critical threshold.

That is exactly what the U.S. government did in October, even as new intelligence was shaping the soon-to-be-released NIE, when the Treasury and State Departments announced sweeping designations of Iranian entities and individuals involved in proliferation and terrorist activities. Though unilateral, the designations have effectively cut the affected parties off from the U.S. - and by extension the international -- financial system. European officials were pre-briefed on these designations, and were likely supportive. Indeed, the European Union is now debating whether or not to impose sanctions of its own targeting Iran. It should.

The full article is available here.

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