Indonesia: The Year in Review

By Kenneth Conboy

In hindsight, the counter-terrorist effort in Indonesia this past year was cause for guarded cheer. For one thing, 2007 was the second year running during which the remnants of Jemaah Islamiyah were not able to stage an attack. Their last major strike, on the resort island of Bali, took place in October 2005.

For another thing, a series of police raids in Central Java, East Java, and Jogjakarta during mid-2007 netted several big catches, notably top terrorist Abu Dujana. The result of these arrests—on top of the others since 2002—has been a gradual reduction of Jemaah Islamiyah from a regional threat, to primarily an Indonesia-centric threat, to a Java-based threat in areas like Jakarta, Semarang, Jogjakarta, and Surabaya. The organization is also thought to have sleepers in some other parts of the country, including Lampung (Sumatra) and Lombok, as well as a handful of operatives hiding in the southern Philippines.

It must also be noted that sectarian violence in Poso district (Central Sulawesi), some of it instigated by Jemaah Islamiyah, was down in 2007. It was the police, in fact, who drew first blood last January, with a series of pre-emptive raids that resulted in the capture of several dozen radicals and dozens more unexploded bombs. Although sporadic pipe-bombings persisted in the district through mid-year, just two incidents (neither of which inflicted any damage) were reported during the second two quarters.

Indonesian officials were especially optimistic following the Bali climate control summit in December. For half a month, some two-hundred foreign delegations flocked to that island, lending it critical mass for any would-be terrorist intent on striking against Western interests. The Indonesian authorities responded in force, deploying elements of their various counter-terrorist formations—Detachment 88 from the police, Unit 81 from the army, Detachment Bravo from the air force, and Detachment Jala Mangkara from the navy—to conduct flashy exercises intended to intimidate. This apparently did the trick, as the conference concluded without any significant security incidents.

Perhaps the most serious terrorist scare of the year turned out to be a false alarm. On 25 November, Australia’s Lester Cross, the director of the Jakarta Center for Law Enforcement Cooperation (a kind of counter-terrorism clearing house in Semarang, Central Java), was inside his van near Klaten, Central Java, when unknown assailants in motorcycles reportedly fired on his vehicle before speeding off.

Despite having all the hallmarks of a terrorist attack, the police insisted from the beginning that it might have been a robbery attempt gone bad.

The reason for their insistence eventually became apparent. On 6 December, the police sheepishly claimed the attack had actually been perpetrated by undercover narcotics officers who mistakenly believed the van was ferrying a drug dealer. This new storyline was immediately met with skepticism, as it made little sense that police officers would fire at a suspect vehicle and then flee without taking further steps to halt the van. Sources close to the police later claimed that Cross’s vehicle had actually encountered an illegal roadblock that was shaking down motorists. Police in civilian uniforms were allegedly among those manning the roadblock, and it was they who fired on the vehicle. Bottom line: religious extremists were not to blame.

Entering the new year, Indonesian officials are quick to point out that terrorism remains a concern. After all, the authorities still seem no closer to catching two of the biggest Jemaah Islamiyah fugitive, Noordin Top and Zulkarnaen. Both are thought to be shifting among safe houses in Central java. In the southern Philippines, meanwhile, Jemaah Islamiyah bombers Dul Matin and Umar Patek have been equally elusive.

Looking father ahead, it must be remembered that Indonesia-watchers have repeatedly—and prematurely—written the epitaph for radical Islam during earlier decades. It is now apparent that Indonesian extremism is cyclic and rather predictable, proving a serious threat once a generation before going into periods of remission. While Jemaah Islamiyah may currently be at the low point of one of these cycles, it is almost certain to be resurrected—probably under a new name and with new faces—during the decade to come.

TrackBack