Kenya's Volatility Threatens the Region
By Douglas Farah
The sudden spiral into near-chaos of much of Kenya, long regarded as one of the most stable nations in East Africa, is a powerful reminder of how quickly even seemingly-secure countries can edge toward the precipice.
The sudden flaring of ethnic rivalries, large-scale killings and unresolved electoral disputes combine to greatly weaken the credibility of the state at a time when radical Islamist groups, including al Qaeda, have made clear their intent to increase activity in the Horn of Africa region.
This is not to say there is a terrorist hand in the current events. There are legitimate grievances, ancient hostilities, abuses, corruption, etc. etc. All are legitimate reasons and pressures for internal strife and the general mess.
But Kenya is in a strategic position, has been an al Qaeda operational center in the past and sits in a bad neighborhood where the Islamists have a strong interest. The chaos there will only facilitate the Islamist strategy of spreading instability, as they look for weak spots into which they can flow.
Given the previous, large-scale activities of al Qaeda in Kenya (the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombing, where the investigation revealed a sophisticated al Qaeda infrastructure), they know the lay of the land. My full blog is here.
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