Pressure Gauges

By Michael Jacobson

In today's Guardian Online

As President Bush travelled through the Middle East this past week, his attempts to rally support for continued pressure against Iran encountered some resistance. The recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear capabilities and intentions, which has been widely interpreted to indicate that Iran's nuclear programme no longer poses a serious threat, has changed the international environment.

The shifting attitudes have been clear at the UN security council, where US-led efforts to enact a third round of sanctions against Iran -- which appeared to be imminent before the release of the NIE -- have been delayed. These negotiations at the UN, which began more than six months ago, continue to stall in the face of Russian and Chinese objections to demands that certain punitive measures be included in the resolution.

Unfortunately, the more benign view of Iran's nuclear programme may be overly optimistic. While Iran may no longer have an active covert nuclear weapons programme, there is still considerable reason to worry about its nuclear-related activities. As Tehran has publicly announced, it continues to move forward on its uranium enrichment activities. The fissile material generated through enrichment could rapidly be turned into a nuclear bomb -- should Iran choose to resume its weaponisation programme.

While some have seized on the NIE to argue that sanctions are no longer necessary, in fact, the opposite conclusion could be drawn from the report. The NIE suggests that Iran might modify its behaviour on its entire nuclear programme in the face of the right mix of carrots and sticks, and that the regime is vulnerable to outside pressure on the nuclear issue.

UN sanctions remain an important part of the overall efforts to ratchet up pressure against Tehran. In light of this, the US, UK, France and Germany must find a way to overcome the obstacles they are currently facing in securing a third round of sanctions.

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