Summer 2006 Déjà vu?
By David Schenker
On January 8, two 107mm Katyusha rockets were fired on Northern Israel from Lebanon. The same day, a roadside bomb in Lebanon injured three soldiers from the Irish contingent of UNIFIL. And just a few days earlier, a Katyusha rocket was fired into Israel hitting Ashkelon from Gaza.
None of these developments are unprecedented. Palestinians have been firing mortars and Qassam rockets on Israel continuously for some time; longer-range heavier payload Katyshuas have also been a fairly common occurrence in recent years. Katyushas emanating from Lebanon have been a little less common, especially since the UNIFIL presence in South Lebanon was augmented to 13,500 troops in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, in 2006.
Roadside bombings targeting UNIFIL troops—deployed in South Lebanon to inhibit Hizballah activities—are also starting to become routine. In June 2007, three Spanish and three Columbian UNIFIL troops were killed in a roadside bomb attack; that July, a roadside bomb targeting UNIFIL troops detonated, but resulted in no casualties. Last week’s attack was the third this year.
The timing of these attacks—against both UNIFIL and Israel—appear to be coordinated. Indeed, a pattern seems to be emerging where Katyushas are launched against Israel—from Lebanon or Gaza—followed by attacks on UNIFIL. On June 17, 2007 a Katyusha fell on Kiriyat Shemona; five days later on June 24, 6 UNIFIL troops were killed. This past week when Katyushas fell on Israel from the North and South, UNIFIL was attacked.
While the perpetrators of the UNIFIL attacks remain unknown, the motive clearly appears to be to end the deployment. [This motivation would place Syria, Hizballah, and any number of Sunni terrorist groups atop the list of suspects.]
In any event, an increasing body of evidence suggests collaboration of Hamas, Hizballah, and Syria and its other proxy organizations on the UNIFIL and Katyusha attacks: Hamas leader Khalid Mashal claimed responsibility from Damascus for providing last week’s Ashkelon Katyusha, which he said was fired by Syria’s proxy, the PFLP-GC. There are reports that Syrian officials have threatened UNIFIL and UNIFIL sources earlier this week spoke of a deterioration of relations between the organization and Hizballah as UN “security forces cracked down on [Hizballah] movements over the Litani's bridges.”
On the ground in Lebanon, it remains to be seen how long the Europeans will tolerate this situation. To be sure, given the nature of this deployment, for the time being UNIFIL troops will remain vulnerable to attacks. Press reports suggest at present, UNIFIL is looking to bolster its capabilities to defend itself.
As for the Katyushas, a little more than a year after the 2006 summer war with Hizballah, it seems that Israel again finds itself under siege on two fronts. While Katyushas falling on Israel are not new, the increased frequency of Katyusha attacks represents a qualitative escalation along Israel's borders.
The current situation is somewhat reminiscent of 2006, when Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hizballah in the north and Hamas in the south. Ongoing talks between Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and PA President Mahmoud Abbas may temporarily restrain Israel from decisive actions in Gaza, but indications are that as pressures increase, like 2006, Israel will once again be compelled to consider robust operations in the north and the south.