Shattered Hopes

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Today I have an article in the Daily Standard, co-written with my colleague Nick Grace, about the influence that Benazir Bhutto's assassination will have on the Pakistani parliamentary elections that are scheduled for February 18. In particular, we were interested in the outlook -- both short-term and long-term -- for Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Although the PPP is not Pakistan's only secular opposition party (both MQM and the Awami National Party remain active), it is the country's only secular opposition party with a true national reach. With the party now led by Bhutto's husband (Asif Ali Zardari) and 19-year-old son (Bilawal Zardari), there is ample reason for concern that the party will accomplish little in the short term, and may fragment down the road. An excerpt:

ASIF ALI ZARDARI NOW RUNS the PPP's day-to-day operations as the parliamentary elections approach....

He earned the nickname "Mr. Ten Percent" during Bhutto's stints as prime minister--the reference was to the value of his alleged kickbacks from each government contract. As a result, Asif Ali is frequently blamed for the corruption allegations that brought both of his wife's administrations to an end. Other allegations against Asif Ali range to the downright bizarre: he stood trial for allegedly trying to extort money from a British businessman "by attaching a bomb to his legs." He was acquitted of that charge....

Needless to say, a man with this checkered history is unlikely to be an effective leader of a political party even under the best of circumstances.

BUT THESE ARE NOT THE BEST of circumstances, and Asif Ali may find it difficult to hold the PPP together. Islamabad-based political commentator Ahmed Quraishi told us that the Bhutto family is privately suspicious of the will that Asif Ali relied on to take over the party's reins. "Nobody knew about it, not even the Bhutto family, nor any of Benazir Bhutto's political aides nor close associates within the party," he said.

"Zardari's rise to leadership marks the beginning of dissension within the PPP," B. Raman, former head of counterterrorism for India's external intelligence agency, told us. "It was a very unwise decision of the PPP to endorse Zardari, and very unwise of Benazir to have endorsed her husband."

There are already signs that Raman may be correct. Some members of the Bhutto family (who have controlled the PPP since its inception forty years ago) have signaled their rejection of the legitimacy of both Bilawal and Asif Ali. Though Bilawal recently adopted "Bhutto" as his middle name, some family members do not consider him a part of the dynastic line. "Bilawal is actually a member of the Zardari family," Saifullah Mehsud, a research analyst with the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore, told us. "They repositioned him as a Bhutto, but lineage is traced from the father and not the mother. He is a Zardari son."

Shortly after Bilawal's appointment, the Bhutto family patriarch, 74 year-old Mumtaz Bhutto, opined that "a real Bhutto" should have been appointed instead.... Some party loyalists and Bhutto family members consider 25-year-old Fatima Bhutto as the rightful heir to the PPP's leadership. (Further complicating matters is the fact that Fatima is the daughter of Murtaza Bhutto--whose death many family insiders blame on Asif Ali Zardari.)

You can read the whole article here.

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