A Review of Ronald Kessler's "Terrorist Watch"

By Jeffrey Breinholt

Books are an important source of information on American counterterrorism efforts. Unfortunately, many people who claim to be experts (and who are critical of these efforts) either do not keep up with revelations that come out in book form, or misunderstand what they say.

That was my impression when Ron Suskind's The One Percent Doctrine came out a few years ago. The title came from something Vice President Cheney reportedly said, about how we need to assume that the worst things that can happen are inevitable and act accordingly, even if they have only a one-percent likelihood. This quote probably came from standard risk assessment science, where you dedicate resources according to a formula in which the likelihood of something happening is multiplied by its consequences. Under this well-established idea, something that has a small chance of happening must still be anticipated, if the cost of the consequences is very high. No great revelation there.

However, it was not sufficiently explained by Suskind, and Cheney's quote was used as a great example of fanatical excess by many people who never bothered to read the book its entirety. How else can you explain the continued claims that the FBI has not done anything meaningful since 9/11 to keep American safe from terrorism? Want a great example of this tendency, alive and well in February 2008? Check out the article "Fear Factory," by Guy Lawson, in the February 7, 2008 edition of Rolling Stone.

The same is true of Ronald Kessler's latest book, Terrorist Watch. My sense is that, despite its importance, plenty of government critics will not bother reading it because they view Kessler as too much a pro-FBI partisan, which is a shame. My review of it can be found on the website of the Investigative Project on Terrorism. While I do not entirely agree with the comments of many of the people Kessler quotes in the book, Terrorist Watch is nonetheless a worthy contribution to public education. FBI Director Robert Mueller is quoted as saying that over 100 terrorist plots in the U.S. have been thwarted since since 9/11, and that is undoubtedly true. People who question this should read Terrorist Watch, to get an idea how much work is being done that is not always so obvious. In fact, I challenge Lawson to read it while maintaining his current position that the FBI is intentionally creating bogeymen.

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